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一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 20:23 | 显示全部楼层
August 16, 2006
UltraShort Q’s Come Front and CenterThe UltraShort Q’s (QID) were active enough today to get the nod making them front and center on my quote board. For day traders liquidity is everything, and even though there have been a lot of unique and interesting ETFs created in the past year or so, precious few of them are any good as day trading vehicles.
Any intraday setup that I see in the QQQQ now, I would execute using the QID. Combine the 200% from the UltraShort with 4x day trading margin, and you’ve got some pretty good leverage.

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FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ETF Moves to New Relative HighThe FXI moved to a new relative high and fellow China bulls are slapping each other on the back and smiling. Other strong areas during the recent market swoon were Consumer Staples, Utilities, and the Select Dividend fund (all of which I’ve pointed out to my readers).


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Notable New Highs — August 15, 2006The market tone today was the best I’ve seen since the series of key reversal days that occurred in June, namely June 15th, 21st, and 29th. The high degree of investor pessimism that built up over the last few months means that prices can now climb.

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August 15, 2006
Foreign Bank Competition and China’s “National Interest”China Tells Foreign Banks Terms for Yuan Business, by Rick Carew
The China Banking Regulatory Commission has circulated a notice to foreign banks saying they will be required to incorporate their local operations in China as a China-registered company and capitalize the entity with at least one billion yuan, or about $125 million, if they want to do retail business in the Chinese currency. The draft rules also require foreign banks to maintain operating capital of 100 million yuan in their branches.
“Due to the yuan retail business’s vital importance to national interest and people’s livelihood, the requirements for business procedures and risk control differ,” the English translation of the advisory notice said.
The “people’s livelihood,” I love it. Whenever I hear regulators talk about the “national interest,” this person instinctively grabs his wallet and runs.
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Cruiseliner TandemI went to the bike store today to look for a new bike. I’m getting old and want something with a wide-ass seat, fat smooth tires, fenders, a chain guard, wide comfy handlebars, and a kickstand — none of which my mountain or road bike has. The Trek Clyde, Calypso, Cruiser Classic, and Cruiseliner all appealed to me, but then I saw the Cruiseliner Tandem and thought, that’s the ticket!
It retails for only $600 in the US so I think I’ll buy one next time I’m in the States and bring it back. I wonder if it’s manufactured in China? I sure hope not! The only other problem I see is there’s no obvious place to put the baby.

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Notable New Highs — August 14, 2006
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 20:24 | 显示全部楼层
An Extraordinarily Compelling Reason to Watch Stock Charts
“Dell’s weak quarterly results diappointed Wall Street again. The company’s long-term prospects, particularly outside the U.S., remain solid, and Dell’s valuation has become extraordinarily compelling.”
Longleaf has averaged down this losing position and now own 47,655,790 shares of Dell in their various funds. They may eventually be right about the “value” of DELL, but if they paid attention to the charts they could improve their entries dramatically, i.e. DELL would still be “on deck” for them and not causing Longleaf shareholders the tremendous heartache it has.

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Adding to the Strong During Bouts of WeaknessThe ISEE Sentiment Index has been indicating quite a bit of fear in the market since the beginning of June. This has given folks reason to add to their strongest holdings. Energy still looks like a pretty good area to me: the Energy SPDR (XLE) has been stronger than the Oil Service HOLDR (OIH) of late.

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 20:25 | 显示全部楼层
August 12, 2006
Buying Stocks in Mainland China Through Fidelity?Global Investing Made Easy, by Aaron Lucchetti
Fidelity also has enabled clients to buy individual shares in China, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic — bringing to 36 the number of foreign markets offered in this way.
A few months ago, James Angel, a professor of finance at Georgetown University, says he tried to buy about $600 in shares of a small Chinese real-estate company, Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development Co., that trades on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, only to find that Schwab and E*Trade couldn’t complete the trade.
Schwab says a $600 trade doesn’t meet its minimum size. E-Trade says it doesn’t offer access to foreign ordinary shares in mainland China.
He must have been trying to buy the “B” share. So even though Schwab and E*Trade couldn’t do this small trade for Mr. Angel, Fidelity could have? Have any Fidelity customers (and readers of this blog) tried to buy “B” shares listed in China? Please let me know if you have! And is Hong Kong one of the 36 foreign markets Fidelity offers access to?

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August 10, 2006
The End of Whole Foods’ Fabulous Run, or, Pass the Mac & Cheese PleaseThe dramatic run that started in late 2000 in WFMI is now officially over. The market is signaling that it’s not just Mr. & Mrs. Front Porch USA who are retrenching — the ambulance chasers, rich plumbers, hippie-yuppies, and trust fund babies who patronize WFMI are also tightening their belts.
This chart doesn’t exactly have “soft landing” written all over it.

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Notable New Highs — August 9, 2006
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 20:26 | 显示全部楼层
Revistaing Vista GoldVGZ moved to another new high on unusual volume. Longtime readers may recall my featuring the stock back in February when it was a little over five bucks.
When I look more closely at the weekly chart I can see that the really smart people (not me, alas!) were on top of this one as early as September 2005 and they’re still holding strong.

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Notable New Highs — August 8, 2006
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The Best American TV Show Transcription Service in the WorldLove of U.S. TV spurs Chinese thefts, by Howard French
The volunteer translators in China say they are willing to devote long hours to this effort out of a love for American popular culture. Many say they learned English by obsessively watching American movies and television programs. And others say they pick up useful knowledge about everything from changing fashion and mores to medical science.
A longstanding practice of strict censorship that affects all Chinese media, and covers not only politics, but sexuality, violence and other subjects that form the grist of American entertainment, also drives audiences toward alternatives like downloadable television shows. And there are sharp limits on the number of American programs and Hollywood movies that can be broadcast or screened in theaters here.
China imported only 16 American films last year, out of a total of 20 foreign movies. American programs are similarly scarce on Chinese television. Official efforts to control both the market for and content of popular culture have long had the effect of encouraging piracy here. Cheap DVD copies of newly released American movies have been sold on street corners throughout China for years. Recent attempts to crack down on these sales, at the insistence of the United States, have coincided with the boom in television and movie downloading, which could eventually make DVD piracy obsolete.
I became aware of this phenomenon when a young Chinese friend said to me, hey did you catch last night’s episode of Boston Public? And I said, what’s Boston Public? She then led me by the hand through this culture of massive, near-real-time piracy of popular American TV shows (which I’ve never seen and care nothing about). What fascinated me the most was that in addition to the TV programs, you can download original full-text English transcripts of every popular show out there.
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August 8, 2006
Banks Without BranchesCitigroup and Société Générale Battle for Rare Prize in China — Warts and All, by Rick Carew
As part of its deal to join the World Trade Organization in 2001, China promised to let foreign banks tap its local-currency retail market this December. Currently, foreign banks can handle loans and deposits in foreign currency and provide yuan-denominated services to enterprises in 25 cities. The change will give foreign banks full access to Chinese individuals, a huge pool of potential customers for products such as credit cards and mortgages.
But foreign banks don’t have the branch networks that will let them take real advantage of the change — there are only 181 branches operated by all foreign banks in China combined as of October.
The graphic that accompanies the article shows that HSBC has 24 branches, Bank of East Asia has 21, Citigroup has 18, Standard Chartered has 15, and Hang Seng Bank (a subsidiary of HSBC) has 11, so there’s a wee little bit of room for growth.
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HANS Finally Cracks But No Joy in DummyvilleMarket tone was poor from the get-go so it was smart to look on the short side. HANS blew up (to Herb Greenberg’s great delight) doing about five times average volume and was the #1 Unusual Suspect. Things were not easy for Dummies though. As you can see from the chart below, the early Dummy shorts were picked off by the 11:45 AM bar.
The noon bar (a narrow range inside bar, blue with small 7) provided a good spot for persistent traders to re-short the stock. However, you run the risk of “revenge trading” by pursuing an entry in a stock that you just got stopped out of, and it takes enormous discipline to do this without really screwing up your mindset. If you get stopped out once again, then you’re really pissed and liable to do something stupid (like take yet another short position, lol).

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Notable New Highs — August 7, 2006Not exactly a picture of health and if the Fed does the unexpected tomorrow (raises rates), all hell is going to break loose.

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Establishing and Maintaining Eye ContactThe Invisible Grip, by Tom Chiarella
A person’s gaze has weight, resistance, muscularity. Clearly, there are people who use their eyes well. You know them: the sales rep, the fundraiser, the tyrannical supervisor. Their eyes force the question. These people may be as dumb as streetlamps, but they are an undeniable presence in the room. They know they must be dealt with. You know it, too.
This is a skill that’s hard for naturally shy or introverted people to develop, but it’s essential.
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The Latest (and Last?) in a Line of Global TonguesLanguage not pronounced trippingly on native tongue, by Noam Cohen
Though English fluency can seem like the key to the kingdom today, in the future, if there are two billion people who can speak English, the English speaker without knowledge of another language will be at a disadvantage.
Speaking good English isn’t the key to the kingdom, but without it you won’t have a pot to piss in. (I combined alliterative metaphors on purpose because I’m a native English speaker.)
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 20:27 | 显示全部楼层
August 7, 2006
Buffett Cuts Dollar Short Just As Slide Set to Resume
Berkshire reduced its stake in foreign currency contracts to $1.2 billion from $5.4 billion on March 31 and $21.5 billion a year earlier.

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August 4, 2006

Morgan Stanley: From Blah to CrapI noticed MS on the new highs list and thought, big whoop, this stock has been crappy for as long as I can remember. The chart below explains why many people have said: Bring Me the Head of Phil Purcell. (Remember that Purcell is a former McKinsey guy — this should automatically disqualify him from holding any management job.)

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 20:29 | 显示全部楼层
Reader’s “Die”-gestI noticed RDA on the new lows list. Is there anyone under age 70 who reads this? Do they use super-large font on their website and what’s the traffic like? (Must listen to this conference call.)
[Update: When you hear management say “significant negative delta in cash flow versus last year” in the first five minutes of the call, you don’t know whether to laugh or cry. “Negative delta” … I’ll have to remember that one!]
Paying attention to relative performance would have kept you out of this miserable dog for the last 13 years or so.

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August 2, 2006
Middle America’s New DietBack in late 2005 the market began anticipating that Middle America was going to start tightening its belt. Now with $3 a gallon gas and that ARM* resetting there will be even fewer Steak & Crispy Buttermilk Shrimp Combos consumed by Mr. and Mrs. Front Porch USA. (”Seven ounces of sizzling sirloin paired with succulent shrimp, lightly breaded and golden fried to perfection for only $14.99!”) As the great Leon Levy used to say, the market is “pretty efficient.”

* “The typical ARM holder will see a monthly payment increase of about 25%, while for those in option ARMs, interest only, and negative-amortization loans, the resets could approach 60%.” — Liz Ann Sonders
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August 1, 2006

A Housing Market on the Florida RocksFlorida Rock is a big beneficiary of the housing boom and one of the “indicators” I watch to judge the health of the real estate market. Chart watchers will appreciate the classic “double top” pattern that formed in FRK over the past year and the stock’s subsequent breakdown. The really smart money exited around $55, the slightly slower folks got out around $45, and only the crazies continue to hold tight.



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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 20:29 | 显示全部楼层
Transports Ugly But Don’t Panic… YetThe iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average ETF (IYT) has reversed hard these last several weeks, but I’m not going to panic sell… quite yet.

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Stock to Watch — Tyler Technologies (TYL)TYL moved to a new high on nearly five times average volume. This has to be the only stock with “technology” in its name trading at a new high. ;-)
Tyler Technologies, Inc. provides information management solutions and services for local governments. Its products are grouped into four areas, including financials, courts and justice, property appraisal and tax, and document management. Tyler Technologies was founded in 1966 and is based in Dallas, Texas.

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 20:31 | 显示全部楼层
July 27, 2006
ETF to Watch — iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend (DVY)DVY moved to a new high. It began outperforming in early June (when the smart money started buying) … 35% of this ETF is in banks and 20% or so is in utilities, both of which we know are good sectors to be in now.
The iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Dow Jones Select Dividend Index.
The Dow Jones Select Dividend Index stocks are screened by dividend-per-share growth rate, dividend payout percentage rate, and average daily dollar trading volume, and are selected based on dividend yield.

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July 25, 2006
Stock to Watch — M&T Bank (MTB)The financials are very strong and look ready to break out of a multi-year consolidation. MTB is just one of many bank stocks that look great here.
M&T Bank Corporation operates as the holding company for M&T Bank and M&T Bank, National Association that provide commercial and retail banking services to individuals, corporations, and other businesses and institutions. As of July 5, 2006, it had 670 banking offices located in New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia. The bank was incorporated in 1969 and is headquartered in Buffalo, New York.

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Playing Defense in the Utilities SPDRSmart money shifted back into the Utilities in early June and it now appears that the XLU will break out of its one-year long consolidation.

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 20:32 | 显示全部楼层
July 21, 2006
ETF to Watch — UltraShort QQQ (QID)The UltraShort Q’s have been pretty active since their recent debut. QID still isn’t liquid enough to comfortably day trade, but it’s getting there fast.

Related: ProShares Launches Four New UltraShort ETFs
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Holding the Bag in the Internet HOLDRYahoo! blew up yesterday and eBay has been sucking forever, so things aren’t looking so hot in the internet sector. (EBAY has a 26.88% weighting in the HHH, YHOO is 28.30%.) Trend followers scratched their last long this past February and have been standing aside (or short) since that time. Only the crazies and terminal bag holders are long the HHH here.

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Stock to Watch — Wolverine World Wide (WWW)It looks like WWW wants to move out of this longish consolidation between $20 and $25.
Wolverine World Wide, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of a line of casual shoes, rugged outdoor and work footwear, and constructed slippers and moccasins primarily in the United States. Wolverine World Wide was founded by G.A. Krause in 1883 and is based in Rockford, Michigan.

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July 19, 2006
Stock to Watch — Jackson Hewitt Tax Service (JTX)JTX moved to a new high on over three times average volume. (You can have some fun by laying H&R Block’s chart on top of this one.)
Jackson Hewitt Tax Service, Inc. provides computerized preparation of federal, state, and local individual income tax returns in the United States. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Parsippany, New Jersey.

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 20:34 | 显示全部楼层
July 17, 2006
Hold Fast to Your Energy StocksThe Energy SPDR moved to a new relative high last week after forming an ascending triangle over the last year. You don’t want to lighten your allocation to energy until the trend changes, and by the look of things that isn’t going to happen anytime soon. The smartest money I know got long in late 2003 and is sitting tight.

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Oh CrudCrude oil makes a new high and the SPY (and a zillion other things) stall out in the midpoint “retracement zone.” Things are, in a word, fugly.


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July 13, 2006
True Believers of the Homebuilder Stocks Getting MurderedWhen I first wrote about the Homebuilders SPDR ETF, I mentioned that this new instrument might be a handy way to take advantage of the Head & Shoulders top that had formed in the Housing Index. As you can see from the chart below, the Housing Index has further to fall before meeting the “measured move” target.
The Homebuilders SPDR hit a new low yesterday… there’s no reason to bottom fish. Toll Brothers, Lennar, Ryland, Beazer, Meritage Homes, Standard Pacific, Fleetwood, etc. all figured prominently on the new lows list. I wonder if those investors who were fortunate enough to buy the homebuilders back in 2000 (like John Buckingham), were equally savvy about exiting them when the trend changed last summer.
You’ll recall that last summer at the very peak of the market Buckingham said he “welcomed ‘Bubble Talk.’” Let’s hope for his shareholders’ sake that he was saying one thing publicly while doing another thing privately (which is the modus operandi of all smart money managers).

Related: Chat Transcript: Have the Homebuilder Stocks Peaked? (August 23, 2005)
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Nasdaq 100 Index: Then and NowThe Q’s have been treading water for a long time, but this year they’ve started to underperform badly. Anyone holding them now is hurting.

It isn’t like the old days where all you needed was a healthy slug of Q’s to outperform. The tricky bit then was hopping off the tiger in time … those watching relative performance scrammed in Q4 2000 at the latest. Then there were those of us who had fallen in love and ignored the charts, a crazy and costly affair. [sigh]

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 20:35 | 显示全部楼层
Stock to Watch — ONEOK (OKE)OKE moved above round-number $35 resistance on about 3.5 times average volume.
ONEOK, Inc., a diversified energy company, operates as a natural gas distributor in the United States. The company engages in purchasing, gathering, processing, transporting, storing, and distributing natural gas liquids (NGL). The company was founded in 1906 as Oklahoma Natural Gas Company and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.



I’ll be watching DJP and GSP closely to see if they become actively traded and worth following.

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The Future(s) of ETFsIt’s now possible to daytrade ETFs instead of the corresponding futures contract — there’s enough liquidity in many ETFs to put on very large trades in a snap. Why trade the E-mini S&Ps when we have SPY? Ditto for the Mini-Dow (DIA), Mini-MidCap (MDY), Mini-Nasdaq (QQQQ), Mini-Russell (IWM), Long Bond (TLT), Gold (GLD), Silver (SLV), and Crude Oil (USO).
I’m hopeful that the new currency ETFs (FXA, FXB, FXC, FXE, FXF, FXM, FXS) will eventually become liquid enough to actively trade (they’re not there yet).

(The CME begs to differ in this PDF: E-mini Stock Index Futures vs. Exchange Traded Funds)
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 20:36 | 显示全部楼层
July 6, 2006
Stock to Watch — Avalonbay Communities (AVB)Yes, another REIT… Avalonbay moved above round-number $110 resistance after going sideways for a few months.
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT). It engages in the development, redevelopment, acquisition, ownership, and operation of multifamily communities in high barrier-to-entry markets of the United States. AvalonBay was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in Alexandria, Virginia.
(I’m not sure what they mean by “high barrier-to-entry markets” … I see they have some developments in my old NJ stomping grounds: Lawrenceville and West Windsor.)

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July 4, 2006
REITs Still Outperforming After All These YearsI’ve featured a couple of REITs as Stocks to Watch in recent days (ESS, SLG) and have noted that the sector remains very strong.
Folks with long memories know that the REITs were totally out of favor and huge underperformers in 1998 and 1999. But when the bubble burst in the first quarter of 2000, people who were paying attention noticed that the sector was strong as everything else came crashing down.
Savvy investors shifted into REITs in May 2000 and held until April/May 2004 when they were shaken out. It didn’t take long for the trend to reassert itself though — long positions were reestablished in June 2004 and are still being held today.
(The same is true of Precious Metals, which were shifted into in November 2000. The ride there has been a bit bumpier and deserves a separate post to explain.)

Related: REITs Ignoring Rates
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 20:36 | 显示全部楼层
Putting the Consumer Staples Outperformance in PerspectiveSince the stock market slide began in early May, the Consumer Staples sector has been the strongest performer relative to the S&P 500. Readers with a sharp memory will recall that I mentioned the shift into Consumer Staples a couple times in late May.

But if you step back and look at things from a monthly perspective, the trend in the relative performance of the Consumer Staples sector is still down. Trend followers were smart to exit the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) as the bull market came on in force in early 2003. Those who got defensive during this recent broad market swoon may have acted prematurely.

For another perspective on the Consumer Staples sector, read this post by BCA Research.
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ETF Performance Table — Week Ending June 30, 2006
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ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending June 30, 2006
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Stock to Watch — Essex Property Trust (ESS)There is so much strength in the REITs that I’m featuring yet another one today (yesterday I featured SL Green Realty). Essex moved to a new high on about twice average volume. Check out the pretty symmetrical triangle that has formed on the weekly chart.
Essex Property Trust, Inc., a real estate investment trust, engages in the ownership, acquisition, development, and management of multifamily apartment communities in the United States. Essex Property Trust was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 20:37 | 显示全部楼层
Stock to Watch — SL Green Realty (SLG)SLG moved to a new high after going sideways for the last several months. This REIT has had a huge run and is showing no signs of slowing down.
SL Green Realty Corp., a real estate investment trust (REIT), engages in the ownership, management, acquisition, leasing, and repositioning of commercial office properties in Manhattan, New York City. SL Green Realty was founded in 1997 and is based in New York City.

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Cat:   | Time: 8:04 am (utc+8) Comments (0)


Notable New Highs — June 29, 2006The buying today wasn’t as extreme as on June 15th, but still today’s action looks like 90% upside volume to me. ;-) The new highs list was packed, so picking 20 Notables was easier than it has been these past many weeks.

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June 29, 2006
Prices Retrace or Test — That Is AllEvery time I see a bear flag I remember what The Stranger told The Dude in the Big Lebowski:
“A wiser fella than m’self once said, sometimes you eat the bar and sometimes the bar, well, he eats you.”

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Bloomberg.com’s New Color SchemeI like it. And there appear to be no ads (though I have blocked ads.blp.valueclick.net/jsmaster, which may have something to do with it).

- via Barry Ritholtz -
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Cat:   | Time: 7:38 am (utc+8) Comments (7)


Stock to Watch — Southern Union (SUG)Southern Union moved to a new high on nearly twice average volume. This breakout is exciting because not only is it moving out of the range established over the last year and a half, but also it has closed above December 2000’s closing high. Keep an eye on it.
Southern Union Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the transportation, storage, and distribution of natural gas in the United States. As of December 31, 2005, the company distributed natural gas to approximately 965,000 residential, commercial, and industrial customers through local distribution systems consisting of approximately 14,430 miles of mains, 9,837 miles of service lines, and 78 miles of transmission lines. Southern Union was incorporated in 1932 and is based in Houston, Texas.

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Cat:   | Time: 7:28 am (utc+8) Comments (0)


Notable New Highs — June 28, 2006
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June 28, 2006
Blues TravelerI like Blues Traveler. Let me know if you do too.
Here’s the lead track from their album Four, called Run-around. (4.3MB mp3)
Run-around
Words & Music by J. Popper
Once upon a midnight dearie
I woke with something in my head
I couldn’t escape the memory
Of a phone call and of what you said
Like a game show contestant with a parting gift
I could not believe my eyes
When I saw through the voice of a trusted friend
Who needs to humor me and tell me lies
Yeah humor me and tell me lies
And I’ll lie too and say I don’t mind
And as we seek so shall we find
And when you’re feeling open I’ll still be here
But not without a certain degree of fear
Of what will be with you and me
I still can see things hopefully

But you
Why you wanna give me a run-around
Is it a sure-fire way to speed things up
When all it does is slow me down
And shake me and my confidence
About a great many things
But I’ve been there I can see it cower
Like a nervous magician waiting in the wings
Of a bad play where the heroes are right
And nobody thinks or expects too much
And Hollywood’s calling for the movie rights
Singing hey babe let’s keep in touch
Hey baby let’s keep in touch
But I want more than a touch I want you to reach me
And show me all the things no one else can see
So what you feel becomes mine as well
And soon if we’re lucky we’d be unable to tell
What’s yours and mine the fishing’s fine
And it doesn’t have to rhyme so don’t you feed me a line
But you
Why you wanna give me a run-around
Is it a sure-fire way to speed things up
When all it does is slow me down
Tra la la la la bomba dear this is the pilot speaking
And I’ve got some news for you
It seems my ship still stands no matter what you drop
And there ain’t a whole lot that you can do
Oh sure the banner may be torn and the wind’s gotten colder
Perhaps I’ve grown a little cynical
But I know no matter what the waitress brings
I shall drink in and always be full
My cup shall always be full
Oh I like coffee
And I like tea
I’d like to be able to enter a final plea
I still got this dream that you just can’t shake
I love you to the point you can no longer take
Well all right okay
So be that way
I hope and pray
That there’s something left to say
But you
Why you wanna give me a run-around
Is it a sure-fire way to speed things up
When all it does is slow me down
But you
Why you wanna give me a run-around
Is it a sure-fire way to speed things up
When all it does is slow me down

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Cat:   | Time: 1:14 pm (utc+8) Comments (13)


You Can’t Just Buy Breakouts and Hope for the BestBuying a high-volume breakout is easy — managing the trade is the hard part. In late April I featured the iShares MSCI Mexico fund (EWW) when it broke out. Now I’m going to explain in this series of charts how folks who took that trade and managed the risk aren’t stuck holding a loser. (These are all weekly charts.)





One of the “worst” stocks I featured this year was Parlux Fragrances (PARL). My stocktickr watchlist shows it down 70.99% from entry (ha!), but of course folks who manage their risk got stopped out long ago. I’m not sure if stocktickr has built-in a way to set stops (it probably does, I just don’t know about it), but my watchlist would look a lot shorter if it did.
(PARL is a long-time “favorite” of Herb Greenberg, who now has his own blog … it’s high time Herb, and welcome to the conversation!)



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Notable New Highs — June 27, 2006
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 20:38 | 显示全部楼层
Stock to Watch — SL Green Realty (SLG)SLG moved to a new high after going sideways for the last several months. This REIT has had a huge run and is showing no signs of slowing down.
SL Green Realty Corp., a real estate investment trust (REIT), engages in the ownership, management, acquisition, leasing, and repositioning of commercial office properties in Manhattan, New York City. SL Green Realty was founded in 1997 and is based in New York City.

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Cat:   | Time: 8:04 am (utc+8) Comments (0)


Notable New Highs — June 29, 2006The buying today wasn’t as extreme as on June 15th, but still today’s action looks like 90% upside volume to me. ;-) The new highs list was packed, so picking 20 Notables was easier than it has been these past many weeks.

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Cat:   | Time: 7:29 am (utc+8) Comments (0)

June 29, 2006
Prices Retrace or Test — That Is AllEvery time I see a bear flag I remember what The Stranger told The Dude in the Big Lebowski:
“A wiser fella than m’self once said, sometimes you eat the bar and sometimes the bar, well, he eats you.”

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Cat:   | Time: 8:11 am (utc+8) Comments (6)


Bloomberg.com’s New Color SchemeI like it. And there appear to be no ads (though I have blocked ads.blp.valueclick.net/jsmaster, which may have something to do with it).

- via Barry Ritholtz -
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Cat:   | Time: 7:38 am (utc+8) Comments (7)


Stock to Watch — Southern Union (SUG)Southern Union moved to a new high on nearly twice average volume. This breakout is exciting because not only is it moving out of the range established over the last year and a half, but also it has closed above December 2000’s closing high. Keep an eye on it.
Southern Union Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the transportation, storage, and distribution of natural gas in the United States. As of December 31, 2005, the company distributed natural gas to approximately 965,000 residential, commercial, and industrial customers through local distribution systems consisting of approximately 14,430 miles of mains, 9,837 miles of service lines, and 78 miles of transmission lines. Southern Union was incorporated in 1932 and is based in Houston, Texas.

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Cat:   | Time: 7:28 am (utc+8) Comments (0)


Notable New Highs — June 28, 2006
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Cat:   | Time: 7:24 am (utc+8) Comments (0)


You Can’t Just Buy Breakouts and Hope for the BestBuying a high-volume breakout is easy — managing the trade is the hard part. In late April I featured the iShares MSCI Mexico fund (EWW) when it broke out. Now I’m going to explain in this series of charts how folks who took that trade and managed the risk aren’t stuck holding a loser. (These are all weekly charts.)





One of the “worst” stocks I high time Herb, and welcome to the conversation!)



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Cat:   | Time: 8:29 am (utc+8) Comments (7)


Notable New Highs — June 27, 2006
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 20:39 | 显示全部楼层
Stock to Watch — SL Green Realty (SLG)SLG moved to a new high after going sideways for the last several months. This REIT has had a huge run and is showing no signs of slowing down.
SL Green Realty Corp., a real estate investment trust (REIT), engages in the ownership, management, acquisition, leasing, and repositioning of commercial office properties in Manhattan, New York City. SL Green Realty was founded in 1997 and is based in New York City.

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Cat:   | Time: 8:04 am (utc+8) Comments (0)


June 29, 2006

Prices Retrace or Test — That Is AllEvery time I see a bear flag I remember what The Stranger told The Dude in the Big Lebowski:
“A wiser fella than m’self once said, sometimes you eat the bar and sometimes the bar, well, he eats you.”

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Cat:   | Time: 8:11 am (utc+8) Comments (6)




Stock to Watch — Southern Union (SUG)Southern Union moved to a new high on nearly twice average volume. This breakout is exciting because not only is it moving out of the range established over the last year and a half, but also it has closed above December 2000’s closing high. Keep an eye on it.
Southern Union Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the transportation, storage, and distribution of natural gas in the United States. As of December 31, 2005, the company distributed natural gas to approximately 965,000 residential, commercial, and industrial customers through local distribution systems consisting of approximately 14,430 miles of mains, 9,837 miles of service lines, and 78 miles of transmission lines. Southern Union was incorporated in 1932 and is based in Houston, Texas.

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Cat:   | Time: 7:28 am (utc+8) Comments (0)



You Can’t Just Buy Breakouts and Hope for the BestBuying a high-volume breakout is easy — managing the trade is the hard part. In MSCI Mexico fund (EWW) when it broke out. Now I’m going to explain in this series of charts how folks who took that trade and managed the risk aren’t stuck holding a loser. (These are all weekly charts.)





One of the “worst” stocks I



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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 20:40 | 显示全部楼层
Market Sentiment — Week Ending June 23, 2006The market is at a possible turning point. My trend-following system has a stop below last week’s low in many markets (including the S&P 500). If price trades below $123.55 in the SPY, the position put on in August 2004 will be stopped out.
Nevertheless, I’ve put quite a bit of money to work in the past few weeks since it pays to buy when others are panicky. I’ve mainly been buying stocks that I think have a large “margin of safety,” so I’m not too concerned about precise timing.
Since the market began to slide in May both the VIX and ISE Sentiment Index have indicated excessive pessimism. And happily the Investors Intelligence survey is also now indicating that sentiment has gotten very bearish. This is all good news.

The only trouble is my own sentiment indicator, which is constructed by surveying the popular media, shows no worries. This makes me worried. It’s not like early 2003, August 2004 or April/May 2005 when all the sentiment indicators said the same thing at the same time: Buy!

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Cat:   | Time: 10:36 am (utc+8) Comments (22)


How To Write GoodHow to write good
18. The passive voice is to be avoided.
22 excellent rules. (I’ll try to remember the one about parenthetical remarks.)
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Cat:   | Time: 9:11 am (utc+8) Comments (1)

June 25, 2006
Not Hot Money, But Maybe Dumb MoneyInvesting: Gold’s lure glows ever bright, by Matthew Saltmarsh
According to the World Gold Council, consumers and investors pushed identifiable investment demand to 600 tons in 2005, up 26 percent from a year earlier, while jewelry demand rose 5 percent to 2,736 tons and industrial demand added 2 percent to 419 tons.
Gold ETFs have “plugged a gap in the market” by allowing a range of investors to buy gold - each ETF share represents one-tenth of an ounce of bullion - without the inconvenience of holding the metal or the risk of buying futures and options.
Plugged a gap or opened a hole?
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 20:40 | 显示全部楼层
Market Sentiment — Week Ending June 23, 2006The market is at a possible turning point. My trend-following system has a stop below last week’s low in many markets (including the S&P 500). If price trades below $123.55 in the SPY, the position put on in August 2004 will be stopped out.
Nevertheless, I’ve put quite a bit of money to work in the past few weeks since it pays to buy when others are panicky. I’ve mainly beensurvey is also now indicating that sentiment has gotten very bearish. This is all good news.

The only trouble is my own sentiment indicator, which is constructed by surveying the popular media, shows no worries. This makes me worried. It’s not like early 2003, August 2004 or April/May 2005 when all the sentiment indicators said the same thing at the same time: Buy!

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Cat:   | Time: 10:36 am (utc+8) Comments (22)


How To Write GoodHow to write good
18. The passive voice is to be avoided.
22 excellent rules. (I’ll try to remember the one about parenthetical remarks.)
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Cat:   | Time: 9:11 am (utc+8) Comments (1)


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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 20:40 | 显示全部楼层
Market Sentiment — Week Ending June 23, 2006The market is at a possible turning point. My trend-following system has a stop below last week’s low in many markets (including the S&P 500). If price trades below $123.55 in the SPY, the position

The only trouble is my own sentiment indicator, which is constructed by surveying the popular media, shows no worries. This makes me worried. It’s not like early 2003, August 2004 or April/May 2005 when all the sentiment indicators said the same thing at the same time: Buy!

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Cat:   | Time: 10:36 am (utc+8) Comments (22)


22 excellent rules. (I’ll try to remember the one about parenthetical remarks.)
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 20:41 | 显示全部楼层
Stock to Watch — Arkansas Best (ABFS)Arkansas Best moved to a new high on over 1.5 times average volume. Round-number $45 was “resistance” from a while back, so now that it has been taken out the stock is worth watching.
Arkansas Best Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in motor carrier transportation and intermodal transportation operations. Arkansas Best Corporation was founded in 1935 and is headquartered in Fort Smith, Arkansas.

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Cat:   | Time: 8:17 am (utc+8) Comments (1)


Notable New Highs — June 23, 2006
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June 23, 2006
Overeducated and UnderemployedRioting in China over label on college diplomas, by Joseph Kahn
Once a magic ticket into the government or business elite, college has become an expensive gamble for millions of cash-short families who find that even the most prestigious degrees cannot guarantee success in a market economy.
Is he writing about China or America?
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Eight New ProShares FundsProShares Launches Eight Innovative ETFs to Trade on the American Stock Exchange (Press Release)
Eight new ProShares ETFs began trading this past Wednesday:
  • Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM)
  • Ultra MidCap400 ProShares (MVV)
  • Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD)
  • Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO)
  • Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG)
  • Short MidCap400 ProShares (MYY)
  • Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ)
  • Short S&P500 ProShares (SH)
Ultra ProShares are the only ETFs designed to double the daily performance of their underlying indexes (after fees and expenses). Use them to magnify the impact of your investment dollar.
Short ProShares are the only ETFs designed to go up when their underlying indexes go down (and vice versa). Use them to seek profit in a market downturn or hedge an investment.
They get major points for using the ticker symbol “DOG” for their Short Dow30 fund. None of these ETFs is actively traded yet, but I’ll keep an eye on them to see if they do.
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Cat:   | Time: 8:52 am (utc+8) Comments (7)


Stock to Watch — Celgene (CELG)CELG moved to a new high on nearly twice average volume. Since this stock bottomed under $3 in the summer of 2002, it has been a huge outperformer.
Celgene Corporation engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapies designed to treat cancer and immune-inflammatory-related diseases in the United States. Celgene Corporation was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Summit, New Jersey.

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Cat:   | Time: 7:44 am (utc+8) Comments (1)


Notable New Highs — June 22, 2006
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June 22, 2006
Straying from BenchmarksThe mad genius of mutual funds, by Jon Birger
Ken Heebner’s an interesting guy (a rarity among mutual fund managers):
My big mistake [in the late 90’s] was that I decided to try to keep clients happy by staying with the trend. I bought some of the stocks like Cisco. I thought the stocks were overvalued, but I bought them anyway to try to have better performance. What happened is that I would always be a nervous holder. The stocks would go down, and I’d sell them at a loss because I lacked conviction. I was better off never owning them at all.
And he understands the brave new world:
It’s my belief that for the first time the U.S. is relatively unimportant in the global demand picture. Indigenous demand has grown in countries all around the world. So if we slow down it will not have a material impact on the rest of the world’s growth rate.
– via Trader’s Narrative
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Stock to Watch — The Knot (KNOT)KNOT moved to a new high on nearly four times average volume. This dot com went public on December 2, 1999 and traded as high as $21 that day. Yesterday it hit $20.65 so folks who paid the top tick over six long years ago are approaching breakeven. Those who paid $0.25 a share during the depths of the bear have made a fortune.
The company offers online and offline services to the wedding market in the United States. Its online services include providing ideas, up-to-date information, and resources to assist in the process of planning a wedding through its Web site www.theknot.com. The Knot was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in New York.

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