一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Stocks to Watch — Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Phelps Dodge (PD)FCX is a Notable New High, and PD is a Usual Suspect (it often makes my Tradeable Stocks list).

“Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, mining, and production of copper, gold, and silver. It also smelts and refines copper concentrates in Spain, as well as markets the refined copper products. The company primarily operates the Grasberg open pit and the Deep Ore Zone mines in Indonesia.”

I have exposure to the metals sector via four different things: the Basic Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB), the Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining fund (VGPMX), the Streettracks Gold ETF (GLD), and Pandas.

“Phelps Ddge Corporation engages in the production of copper, molybdenum, molybdenum-based chemicals, and continuous-cast copper rod primarily in the United States. The company operates in two divisions, Phelps Dodge Mining Company (PDMC) and Phelps Dodge Industries (PDI).”

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November 24, 2005
Explaining the Success of Seinfeld (Versus Curb Your Enthusiasm)I thought the following comment by Rob Reiner (taken from the Bonus Material on a Seinfeld DVD) is exactly right:

“What was wonderful [about the making of Seinfeld] is you had this kind of curmudgeonly, misanthropic, dyspeptic Larry David being pushed through this very accessible, likable Jerry Seinfeld … It was a marriage made in heaven.”

I watched a few episodes of Larry David’s Curb Your Enthusiasm while in the US last month. I liked it, but at the same time I thought: “this probably isn’t playing well in Omaha.” What’s the difference between niche appeal and mainstream success? Compare Larry’s constant and undeniably cruel smirk with Jerry’s big, toothy, goofy grin.
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Are You an Expert? (Or, Do You Have a Database of Chunks?)This bit from Michael Mauboussin’s recent piece, Are You an Expert?, caught my eye:

“Experts perceive patterns in their domain … Rather than focusing on the position of individual pieces, expert chess players perceive clusters of pieces, or chunks. Estimates suggest that chess masters store roughly 50,000 chunks in long-term memory. Notably, this pattern recognition does not represent superior perception ability. When chess pieces are placed randomly on the board, experts remember the positions about as well as novices. The difference amounts to a database of chunks, amassed through deliberate practice, from which experts can draw.”

I think that experienced day traders perceive and interpret intraday price patterns in chunks, at least I do. As the chart builds in real-time you suddenly recognize (unconsciously?) that a low-risk, high probability set-up is in place. Interesting, no?
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Goldman Lehman Merrill & BearGoldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, and Bear Stearns all made my Notable New Highs list yesterday. You have to follow the money….








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November 23, 2005
Oil Services HOLDRS and Selected Component StocksThe Oil Services HOLDRS made a new high yesterday. About three weeks ago I noted that SLB had broken out of a nice consolidation, and boldly stated that “the OIH hasn’t yet made a new high, but it will of course.” There’s no “of course” about it, of course, just a good guess. Schlumberger (SLB), Noble (NE), and Transocean (RIG) all made my Notable New Highs list yesterday.
“You can observe a lot just by watching.”








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November 22, 2005
Stocks to Watch — China Medical Technologies (CMED) and UbiquiTel (UPCS)CMED and UPCS are Notable New Highs, both taken from my Stocks to Watch lists,
I don’t know anything about CMED even though it’s based here in Beijing. Maybe I should go over and have a tour of the plant, chat with management, etc. Write a little report, sell it online for a hundred bucks a copy. Nah, I don’t have the time.
I see that it has a float of around one million shares, which is mighty tight.

“China Medical Technologies, Inc., principally through its wholly owned subsidiary, Beijing Yuande Bio-Medical Engineering Co., Ltd., engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of products for the treatment of solid cancers and benign tumors principally in the People’s Republic of China. Its primary product is a high intensity focused ultrasound therapy system that is used for the noninvasive treatment of solid tumors in liver, breast, and kidney, as well as in the pelvic cavity or on bones, and tumors in the four limbs or superficial tissues.”

A nice high-volume breakout here in UPCS. Back in the depths of the bear market (October 2002) this stock sold for 20 cents a share.

“UbiquiTel, Inc. provides digital wireless personal communications services to markets in the western and midwestern United States. The company has an exclusive agreement with Sprint PCS to offer digital wireless personal communications services under the Sprint brand name. It provides various digital wireless personal communications services, including wireless voice and data services; and related retail products, including handsets and wireless devices.”

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November 21, 2005
Allocation of GM’s Pension AssetsI was looking at GM’s financials in Value Line and saw that they have Pension Assets of $115.9 billion and Pension Obligations of $184.9 billion. There’s a wee little bit of a gap there if you do the math. It made me curious as to how they’ve allocated their pension assets, and Note 16 in the most recent 10-K revealed this:

“The strategic mix for U.S. pension plans that was implemented in the latter part of 2003 and the first half of 2004 has reduced exposure to equity market risks and increased allocation to asset classes which are not highly correlated as well as asset classes where active management has historically generated excess returns and places greater emphasis on manager skills to produce excess return while employing various risk mitigation strategies to reduce volatility.
As of December 31, 2004, GM pension assets had the following allocation ranges: global equity, 41%-49%; global bonds, 30%-36%; real estate, 8%-12%; and alternatives, 9%-13%. Overall, this strategic policy mix is expected to result in comparable but less volatile returns than GM’s prior asset mix.”

I guess “alternatives” means hedge funds. It would be interesting to have a bar chart showing the asset allocation mix going back every year as far as possible to see how it has changed over time… and exactly when “alternatives” showed up as an asset class.
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Stocks to Watch — Beazer Homes (BZH) and Microsemi (MSCC)BZH and MSCC are Notable New Highs, both taken from my >Stocks to Watch lists.
Several bloggers (a.k.a. solipsistic nobodies, “SolNobs” for short), including me, called a top in the homebuilders (and by extension, real estate in general) back in August. It looked like a good call for awhile, but just look at Beazer Homes now! You can bet that the SolNobs will stop their public gloating and quit linking back to their brilliant “I called the top” posts of a few months ago. ;-)


I have no idea what Microsemi does, but I bet it has something to do with micros and semis. Is there a Nanosemi out there? How about Cryosemi?


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hefeiddd

November 18, 2005
Stocks to Watch — EMCORE (EMKR) and JLG Industries (JLG)EMKR and JLG are Notable New Highs, both taken from my Stocks to Watch lists.
EMCORE broke out on unusual volume. They make photovoltaic stuff which is apparently hot at the moment (see Evergreen Solar (ESLR), another Notable New High). Those of us with a good memory know that EMKR traded as high as $86.50 a share back in February 2000, and later fell to under a buck a share in October 2002. Do you see why the price you pay matters?


JLG Industries is in the extremely sexy business of providing “access equipment and highway-speed telescopic hydraulic excavators.” In fact I told my wife that I want a highway-speed telescopic hydraulic excavator for Christmas (though I don’t expect the local cabbies will be intimidated by it). In March 2003 JLG traded at just under $4 a share.


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November 17, 2005
A Few Notes Upon Returning from South ChinaI had a very smooth trip to south China where I met with various interesting people. The most wildly successful guys I met with were Brazilians who are brokering deals between China and their home country for raw materials. If you are fluent in both Chinese and Portuguese, you should be working here (rapidly getting rich) right now.
I met a number of guys from both Taiwan and Hongkong who are making quite a bit of money selling recycled copper from the US to the Mainland. Another guy has a place in Mainland China that imports crushed and cut cars from the US. His workers separate the scrap metal by hand. He is doing very well (and his employees are happy to be making $1 an hour).
A real estate speculator I talked with had horror stories about his investments in Shenzhen and in Hongkong. His Shenzhen properties have lost about 60% over the last decade and his Hongkong properties are down 25-30% over the same time. On the other hand he holds his grandfather’s apartment (bought in 1953 for HK$20,000, now valued at HK$6 million), and his parents’ apartment (bought in 1984 for HK$200,000, now valued at HK$10 million), both in Hongkong.
Our private banking person in Hongkong told me that her apartment, bought in 1992, is now valued at 25% less than what she paid for it. Of course it doubled in price before the Asian Currency Crisis hit. US investors in real estate should study the Hongkong market if they want to sober up. Yes, the property you hold that has doubled in price can quickly fall far below what you originally paid for it. Bad Things Happen and Timing Is Everything.
Inflation watch: a ticket for the TurboJet ferry between Hongkong and Shenzhen now includes a HK$14 “fuel surcharge” (about an 8.2% jump). They told me “when fuel prices fall we’ll remove the surcharge,” and I thought, yeah right.
I really like Hongkong and miss living there (as opposed to London), but it’s clear that everyone who matters has moved to Shanghai and that’s where the real dynamism is centered now.
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The Squeeze Goes On (Sung to the Tune of The Beat Goes On)How would you feel if you were short 200,000 tons of copper and everyone on earth knew it? Squeal little piggy!


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Stocks to Watch — Blockbuster (BBI) and Glamis Gold (GLG)BBI is a Notable New Low, and GLG is a Notable New High, both taken from my Stocks to Watch lists.
Blockbuster is at an all-time low (as is Movie Gallery). Netflix meanwhile hovers around its 52-week high.


The yellow metal moved to a new high, and Glamis Gold “broke out” on good volume. The best way to take a position in gold is via the Streettracks Gold ETF (GLD).


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November 14, 2005
Away for a Couple of DaysI have to travel to south China on “bidness” (apologies to Tony Soprano), so the stocks to watch lists won’t be updated until I get back, sorry. Any readers who would like to buy me dinner can find me at the Peninsula Hotel tomorrow night. I’ll see the rest of you on Wednesday or Thursday.
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The World’s Third Most Widely Used MetalDan Gross wrote about copper this week at Slate: Obscure Economic Indicator: The Price of Copper. I always keep a lazy eye on Dr. Copper … this is a chart that makes the bond bears salivate.


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Stocks to Watch — Design Within Reach (DWRI) and SkyWest (SKYW)DWRI is a Notable New Low, and SKYW is a Notable New High, both taken from my Stocks to Watch lists.
When we lived in the US we used to get the Design Within Reach catalog. My wife liked to call it: “Design Within Reach? Prices Beyond Reach!”


As it bumps up against its all-time high from 2001, SkyWest proves that not all the airlines, especially the small regional ones, are in the dumps.


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The Wisdom of Charlie Munger

“Without numerical fluency, in the part of life most of us inhabit, you are like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest.”
“Playing poker in the Army and as a young lawyer honed my business skills … What you have to learn is to fold early when the odds are against you, or if you have a big edge, back it heavily because you don’t get a big edge that often.”

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Stocks to Watch — Golden Star Resources (GSS) and Charles Schwab (SCH)GSS is a Notable New Low, and SCH is a Notable New High, both taken from my Stocks to Watch lists.
Readers with a good memory will recall that I noted a major reversal in GSS back in December 2003 which happened to be the absolute top for the stock. Just dumb luck of course. I have no idea why GSS has moved in the opposite direction from the yellow metal lo these many years.


In case you didn’t know it, the big money has been flowing out of the energies and into the financials the last several weeks. Anybody who isn’t aware of this hasn’t been paying attention (studying my watchlists helps you see where the money is going). Charles Schwab is back from the dead — in March 2003 SCH traded as low as $6.25 a share (as many long-suffering fellow shareholders no doubt painfully recall).


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hefeiddd

Stocks to Watch — BioMarin Pharma. (BMRN) and General Motors (GM)BMRN is a Notable New High, and GM is a Notable New Low, both taken from my Stocks to Watch lists.
Does BioMarin have anything to do with bird flu? Probably not, but it’s going up anyway.


We all know about GM. I think you have to go all the way back to the early 1980s to find it trading at $24.63. Not even in the Crash of ‘87 did it sink this low, right? I know some smart folks (like Controlled Greed and Kerkorian) who think there’s value here, but there are other investors I respect who wouldn’t touch it with a barge pole. (That’s what makes a market.)


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November 9, 2005
Another Rambling Bit of EphemeraThe Wall Street Journal Online is free this week, so I can link to an article there without breaking netiquette: As blogs flourish, media titans scramble for a slice of the pie.

“Web logs — blogs, for short — used to be written off as amateur ramblings … [but now] media companies are paying top dollar for footholds in the blog world. Time Warner’s AOL, for example, has bought Weblogs, a publishing consortium of 100 bloggers, for a reported $25 million.”
…
“One of the reasons blogs have flourished is that news has become a commodity on the nternet. Analysis and opinion have become more important. But blogs have their limits. The production values are uneven: Some are professionally edited, while others are rambling collections of ephemera.
Newspaper sites such as the Washington Post or the Financial Times have employed an ‘if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em’ approach by launching their own in-house blogs. It’s hard to see these succeeding. The whole point of a blog is that it is supposed to be independent and personal. The best approach for the papers is to try to lure back readers by sharpening their own content.”

When I read that Weblogs.com was bought for $25 million, I laughingly told my wife, “that’s quite a bit to pay for a whole lotta nothin’.” I also agree with the author that in-house blogs for major media outlets are a bad idea. If a blog is not both personal and independent, I won’t read it. I’ve also found that I only have time to scan through about 20 blogs (site feeds) a day, so anyone who doesn’t make my top 20 is seldom read.
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Stocks to Watch — SBA Communications (SBAC) and Aleris Int’l (ARS)SBAC is an Unusual Suspect, and ARS is a Notable New High, both taken from my Stocks to Watch lists.
CCI, which I featured the other day, made a nice move up yesterday and remains on the Notable New Highs list. It’s worth your while to study my watchlists. You can’t find lists even remotely as good anywhere, on-line, or off- (he says humbly).




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Stocks to Watch — Quidel (QDEL) and American Oriental Bioengineering (AOB)I noticed both of these stocks on the Notable New Highs list. Quidel is a flu / bird flu play which has made an enormous run over the past half year. Look at that Jim Cramer “Mad Money” volume spike! Is it Mad Money or Dumb Money, I often ask myself.


AOB reported earnings. It’s also a “China play” and has the word “Bioengineering” in its name, so what can go wrong? ;-)


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hefeiddd

Crude Oil’s Complex Head and Shoulders TopEverybody and his grandma saw the head and shoulders top that crude formed during August and September, but I haven’t read anything about the larger, more complex head and shoulders top that could be shaping up.
If price breaks down below the $59 neckline after forming a right shoulder around $64, then the “measured move” would be below $50. If you feel like breaking the neckline of the person who invented all this technical jargon, I don’t blame you.


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November 4, 2005
Health Care Costs in ChinaAs long-time readers know, I have some heart problems. Recently I’ve had these bizarre flashes of heat in the “chestal area” (as Woody Allen would say), so I went to see the doctor yesterday. The best hospital in Beijing is Peking Union Medical College Hospital (Beijing Xiehe Yiyuan). I saw the chief cardiologist (Wang Zishi) and had a number of tests done. Here are the costs:

• 45-minute consultation with chief cardiologist: 300 RMB ($37)
• Electrocardiogram (ECG): 120 RMB ($14.80)
• Chest X-ray: 200 RMB ($24.70)
• Sonogram: 800 RMB ($98.75)

Our private insurance will pick up the total cost ($175.25), but it’s nice to know that if I didn’t have insurance I could pay it out of pocket. In the US the exact same visit would have cost me at least ten times as much.
One business that I want to set up here in my spare time is a health care clinic for foreigners — say for organ transplants. I know some people who have set up a very successful rehabilitation clinic (physical therapy) that caters to foreigners exclusively. Folks are flown in mainly from Western Europe and Canada to do their months-long physical therapy, which costs less than a tenth what it would cost them to do privately at home (and the care is extremely good here).
I’m a huge proponent of outsourcing health care. I first thought about it when Baby T was delivered by an Indian obstetrician and looked after by an Indian pediatrician (both beautiful young women incidentally). Yes, we were in London at the time, but there’s no reason it couldn’t have happened in Lucknow with a little planning.
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Roundup of Recently Watched DVDsI bought another batch of DVDs on the street here, ten discs for 70 kuai (that’s about $0.86 a piece). Quick comments on the ones I’ve seen so far.

• Sideways - a lot of people recommended this to me thinking I’d like it, but I didn’t. Yes, it was funny in parts but I also found it very depressing. Who likes watching weak, whiney American men?
• Star Wars Episode III - The CGI is great but otherwise it’s crap.
• Closer - Crap with a lot of dirty talk thrown in. Nice to see London as the backdrop.
• Collateral - I enjoyed it! As I was watching it I thought, gee, this reminds me of Heat (not knowing it was a Michael Mann movie). Heat could have been a great movie if Mann had cut out about 40 minutes… snip out the love interests of both Pacino and DeNiro and it would’ve been near-perfect.

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Prudential Breaks Out After Dumping AcamporaPRU has been hitting the Notable New Highs list since breaking out at the end of October. The strength in the stock can in no way be attributed to the canning of Ralph Acampora and his group of merry “technicians.” ;-)


Prudential has erased all traces of Ralph from their website, including his biography. Fortunately we can always rely on Google cache:

“Ralph J. Acampora, CMT, Managing Director, Global Equity Research, serves as Prudential Equity Group, LLC Director of Technical Analysis. He is a widely recognized industry leader in the field of Technical Market Analysis. Mr. Acampora is a regular panelist on the popular weekly TV show, Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser. He is regularly consulted for his opinion about the market by major national newspapers throughout the country including The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Business Week, USA Today, and hundreds of local papers. Mr. Acampora has appeared on the NBC Nightly News, CNBC, CNN-FN and other business news stations. With nearly 30 years of technical experience, Mr. Acampora has been instrumental in the development of modern-day technical analysis. He co-founded the Market Technicians’ Association in 1970, and is a past president of that group; founded and was the first chairman of the International Federation of Technical Analysts, comprising 4,000 colleagues around the world; and helped create the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) examination that now leads to the technicians’ version of the CFA.”

Ralph will be missed, especially by those of us who jokingly called him “Ralph-I-Can-Make-You-Poorer.”
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November 3, 2005
Eight Charts of Note with my CommentsAll of these charts were taken from my Stocks to Watch lists.


The day I buy an iPod is the day this stock will peak. (I have no plans to buy an iPod.) (Notable New High)


I have two words for you, Benjamin: flash memory. (See AAPL above.) (Notable New High / Usual Suspect)


SLoB is no slouch … onward and upward for the oil services sector. (The OIH hasn’t yet made a new high, but it will of course.) (Notable New High / Usual Suspect)


I can hear Herbie Greenberg’s frustrated cry from here, and I’m in Beijing. (I drank about ten six-packs of Hansen’s Black Cherry soda during our recent trip to California.) (Notable New High / Usual Suspect)


Anyone who has shopped here knows you can’t escape without dropping at least $100. Also a great place to pick up bored, upper-middle class women, a.k.a. Desperate Mercedes M-Class Housewives. (Notable New High / Usual Suspect)


Nice “breakout” here, and Veterinary Centers of America’s ticker symbol is way up there on my favorites list. (Notable New High / Unusual Suspect)


Compare this chart with Instinet’s (INGP) if you want a good laugh. (Notable New High)


I recommend Howard Jonas’s book, On a Roll: From Hot Dog Buns to High-Tech Billions, but his company’s stock is crumbling. (Notable New Low)
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November 2, 2005
Enjoying the Martin Beck Police MysteriesI’m working my way through the fabulous Martin Beck police mysteries by Maj Sjowall and Per Wahloo. Here’s what Margo Jefferson wrote about the series:

“Sweden has produced some of the best crime writers of the last several decades, and they couldn’t be more different from ours. American power has grown since the 18th century. Sweden, once an imperial force rivaling England and Russia, has had to master the paradox of reduced international power and increased economic prosperity. It is proud of its reputation as a just and practical utopia. So when Sweden looks at itself through the lens of crime, what does it see?
By 1967, when Maj Sjowall and Per Wahloo published the first of 10 now celebrated Martin Beck mysteries, Sweden was struggling to integrate its Old World Lutheran morality (gloomy and fervent) with a New World of youthful, no-nonsense sexual freedom. ‘Roseanna’ begins when the body of a young American tourist who believed in free love and free will is dragged from a canal. Women, dead or alive, keep the crime novel in business — they’re vulnerable and threatening. What writers do with their characters and corpses makes all the difference. As the Stockholm police, led by the shrewd, slightly dour Beck, investigate Roseanna’s past they become obsessed and depressed. And you realize, though it’s never strenuously pointed out, that all of them have dreary-to-disastrous marriages or catch-as-catch-can relations with women.
Sweden is stalked by the leftover complicities of World War II and by the continuing hypocrisies of the cold war. By the 1970’s, when Sjowall and Wahloo’s superb novel ‘The Laughing Policeman’ came out, there was the Vietnam War, along with Sweden’s first mass murder. (’Mass murders seem to be an American specialty,’ says one officer.) Benevolent socialism notwithstanding, the poor still exist, while a certain ruthless greed, especially among the prosperous, feels new. Sjowall is a poet; her husband, who died in 1975, was a journalist, playwright and scriptwriter. Their mysteries — five are currently available in the Vintage Crime/Black Lizard series — don’t just read well; they reread even better. Witness, wife, petty cop or crook — they’re all real characters even if they get just a few sentences. The plots hold, because they’re ingenious but never inhuman. The writing is lean, with mournful undertones. American detectives are stoic and hard-boiled; Swedish ones are stoic and melancholy. And they’re physically fallible. When they drink too much liquor they tend to act stupid. When they drink too much coffee their stomachs hurt.
The atmosphere is beautifully done and without excess. (We’ve all read those show-offy ‘They’ll see I’m a real writer’ paragraphs.) ‘The Man on the Balcony’ opens like this: ‘At a quarter to three the sun rose. . . . The street-sweeping machines had passed, leaving dark wet strips here and there on the asphalt. . . . Five minutes later the tinkle of broken glass had been heard as someone drove a gloved hand through a shop window; then came the sound of running footsteps.’ As it moves into a tale of pedophilia and murder, we realize that scenes like this have the quiet, fatal exactness of Fritz Lang’s still astounding 1928 film on the same subject, ‘M.’”

Here is a list of the ten Martin Beck mysteries; I highly recommend them!

• Roseanna
• The Man on the Balcony
• The Man Who Went Up in Smoke
• The Fire Engine That Disappeared
• Murder at the Savoy
• The Abominable Man
• The Locked Room
• The Laughing Policeman
• Cop Killer
• The Terrorists

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Stock to Watch — Crown Castle International (CCI)I noticed CCI on the Notable New Highs list, showing a nice pop out of a little consolidation. CCI “engages in the ownership, operation, and lease of towers for wireless communications,” which has to be a great business when you think about it. Back in the depths of the bear market (August 2002) this stock was selling for a buck a share.


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November 1, 2005
Explaining the Stocks to Watch ListsIn order to find stocks to trade I look at three different lists, which I call the Unusual Suspects, the Notable New Highs, and the Usual Suspects (or Tradeable Stocks). The Unusual Suspects are stocks that are both unusually active and volatile, the Notable New Highs are stocks that are both active and making new highs, and the Usual Suspects are stocks that aren’t unusually active, but are always liquid and have a nice range.
If you monitor the lists intraday you can find good trading candidates. Google is a Usual Suspect and is making new highs every day so there’s no excuse not to be watching it for low-risk spots to enter. Anyone who studies the Stocks to Watch lists can form his own list of Usual Suspects. (Hint: make sure your Usual Suspects list includes AAPL, GOOG, RIMM, and WFMI.)


When a stock is making new highs there are no natural sellers and the path of least resistance is up. Traders looking to get long GOOG above the 11AM narrow range bar on the 15-min. chart were only risking around a dollar, which ain’t much with a $368 stock.
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October 31, 2005
Wally Weitz is Getting ExcitedWeitz Funds Third Quarter 2005 Report

“For over two years, we have been writing about owning ‘good’ companies at ‘reasonable’ prices and saying that we were ‘comfortable but not excited’ about our stocks. Well, now we are getting excited. For the most part, our companies have grown in value but their stock prices have not kept pace. This means that our stocks are cheaper than they have been in quite a while … these are the times that set up the portfolios for superior long-term performance.”

Weitz goes on to detail the business value of various holdings versus their current price:

• Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A): $110,000 (value) | $85,200 (price)
• Liberty Media (L): $12 | $7.83
• Comcast (CMCSA): $38-$40 | $27.57
• Tyco (TYC): $36 | $26.75
• Countrywide Financial (CFC): $50+ | $32.03
• Fannie Mae (FNM): $65-$70 | $48.04

Weitz also owns AIG, Anheuser Busch, News Corp., UnitedHealthcare, Wal-Mart, and WellPoint. He doesn’t reveal what he believes their “intrinsic business value” is, but he does say: “… the common denominator for all of our valuations is that we are estimating the price an informed, rational buyer might pay for the business if he were planning to hold it forever and wanted to earn a 12% rate of return.”
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• Trading and Investing

| Time: 12:30 pm (utc+8) Comments (0)


Pharmaceutical HOLDRS Component Review

“The companies whose common stocks were included in the Pharmaceutical HOLDRS at the time the Pharmaceutical HOLDRS were originally issued generally were considered to be among the 20 largest and most liquid companies with U.S.-traded common stock involved in the pharmaceutical industry as measured by market capitalization and trading volume on December 15, 1999.”

PPH Components and Weightings
Check out the monthly charts below of the largest six components of the PPH, paying attention to their prices in December 1999 compared with their prices now. Big Pharma is my favorite market sector at the moment. As soon as I see the public sentiment turn really bearish (the way it did most recently in May 2005), I’ll put a lot more money to work in the most out-of-favor issues.






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• Trading and Investing

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October 28, 2005
A Few Random Notes from Our Recent Trip to AmericaWe flew in first-class, business-class, and steerage-class on our various flights to and around and back from the US. Actually Baby T and his mother never flew in steerage class, but I did because of “liberal guilt” and a desire to avoid other fat, balding white guys. There is no difference in the service you receive among the classes — the only difference is the amount of space you get. The stewardesses are almost all hard-asses — the older they are, the more rigid. Of course we were flying United everywhere, and employee morale there is predictably dismal.
I was hit by a wave of anomie (”a state of being characterized by disorientation, anxiety and isolation”) while in the Beijing airport. It’s a weird sensation where you don’t know quite where you are or what you’re doing — I bet a lot of people feel it in international airports.
At the Hyatt in San Francisco I noticed a sign by the fridge that said there would be a $20 charge if the contents were “disturbed,” i.e. you take out some beer cans to chill bottles of breast-milk. Crazy.
We rented a Ford Freestyle and later a Ford Escape. They were both OK to drive, but guzzled a lot of gas. I experienced a bit of road rage on both coasts — granted, I was at fault in both instances. I don’t drive much these days and I’m also a firm believer in the “law of prevailing mass,” but folks seemed more forgiving on the road when gas was $0.99 a gallon.
While in Sonoma County I learned that they have such an over-supply of grapes now that many farmers are turning their crops into fuel, which is nutty considering the quality of the grapes. I also looked into the real estate market a little bit while there — a tract house I looked at in Santa Rosa was selling for $600K; I asked what it last sold for: $365K only three years ago.
The bums on the west coast are rarely aggressive, in the midwest they’re occasionally aggressive, and on the east coast they’re frequently aggressive.
I learned while reading this year’s issue of the Forbes 400 that both Bill Gross and Ken Fisher are billionaires, which stunned me.
If you’re a true hotel snob, you only stay at places where they give you a real key, not a key card.
I caught a couple of episodes of Jim Cramer’s Mad Money finally. I was underwhelmed and even felt a little bit embarrassed for him. It is not a show I’d go out of my way to watch.
I also watched some episodes of the World Series of Poker (loved those Milwaukee’s Best ads!), and realized that the only thing more pathetic than entering a poker tournament with 5,619 entrants is watching said tournament on TV.
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Market Sentiment Remarkably Complacent - Stand AsideWhen the VIX spikes up as it has the last few weeks, I normally get excited about putting some money to work. But I like to see my proprietary sentiment index confirm the VIX, and this month it remains remarkably low (I like to see it get above 2.0). I’m not putting a dime into this market yet. Folks appear to be in la-la land (read the “Big Money Poll” in last week’s Barron’s to get a good grasp of the level of contented self-satisfaction), and I suggest you stand aside until the sentiment gets truly bearish — be patient, keep building up your cash.


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• Trading and Investing

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September 28, 2005
Outsourcing TutorsA Tutor Half a World Away, but as Close as a Keyboard, by Saritha Rai.

“Growing Stars is one of at least a half-dozen companies across India that are helping American children complete their homework and prepare for tests. As in other types of outsourcing, the driving factor in ‘homework outsourcing,’ as the practice is known, is the cost. Companies like Growing Stars and Career Launcher India in New Delhi charge American students $20 an hour for personal tutoring, compared with $50 or more charged by their American counterparts. Growing Stars pays its teachers a monthly salary of 10,000 rupees ($230), twice what they would earn in entry-level jobs at local schools.”

Fantastic! Ain’t globalization grand?

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• Personal

| Time: 7:31 am (utc+8) Comments (1)

September 6, 2005
Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., Ltd.Our apartment in Beijing is being built by these guys. They recently did a share offering in Hongkong (H shares), which is good because it means I can keep a close eye on the company via their stock price.

Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., Ltd., Daily Chart
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• China
• Trading and Investing

| Time: 7:00 am (utc+8) Comments (2)

August 24, 2005
What to Watch for in Toll BrothersDuring yesterday’s chat on the homebuilders, we talked about the importance of watching how the Holy Grail trade works out in Toll Brothers. (If you’re unfamiliar with the Holy Grail technique, read this chat transcript.) Here’s a chart to help you know what we were talking about. If price goes up from here triggering a buy, but then fails to reach the target, we’ll know that $58+ level marks an important high. Keep an eye on it.


TOL, Weekly Chart
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August 23, 2005
Chat Transcript: Have the Homebuilder Stocks Peaked?Many thanks to those who came to the chat last night. We concluded that the real estate-related stocks have definitely maybe put in The Top. ;-) We also reviewed a couple of day trades for kicks. Here’s the complete transcript:
Zoomie: Hi all
james: sup zoom
Zoomie: not much, yerself?
jfra: howdy all…
Zoomie: hi
james: chillin
james: mao - i guess your a celebrity - dont worry - your secret is safe with me
james: WTG brother
CMaoxian: celebrity?
james: modesty has always been yer hallmark
Zoomie: lol
CMaoxian: are there an unusual number of for sale signs in your neighborhoods?
james: no
SALLY: YES
james: its been pretty steady down south
james: cant really gauge a drop off yet
CMaoxian: i keep getting reports from friends on the coasts that they can’t go three feet without running into a for sale sign
CMaoxian: where do you live, sally?
SALLY: houston, tx
nickm: good evening traders!
james: well mao - thats been the case in NC for the past year
jfra: james, lots of houses for sale in NC?
james: yes
CMaoxian: are they selling or just standing there?
james: they’re eatin em up like they’re eatin at the wafflehouse
jfra: hmm…
SALLY: they are standing where i live.
james: they are selling - depends on location - as always
CMaoxian: well the Housing Index doesn’t have an ETF, so there’s not an easy way you can play them as a group
CMaoxian: so we’ll look at a REIT ETF (commercial) and a handful of homebuilders (residential)
CMaoxian: here’s a weekly chart of the IYR (Dow Jones US Real Estate ETF), let’s review the state of commercial real estate before moving on to look at the homebuilders
CMaoxian:

CMaoxian: you can see that since 2004, there have been three separate times "technicians" have called a Top
CMaoxian: welcome sara
james: 38% fib study has a bottom around 56, weekly, 02 bottom
Sara: ty
CMaoxian: so maybe calling a top here will prove to be premature once again
CMaoxian: drilling down to the daily chart, let’s look at this last break in the IYR
CMaoxian:

CMaoxian: you can see how violent the break was this last time
Zoomie: a classic hole in the wall
james: no trend just crashes - theres always late comers
james: im not sayin further highs
james: but there will be support
CMaoxian: i agree james, that’s why i’m not sure if "The Top" is here yet
CMaoxian: you can also see how price broke down out of the little bear flag that formed recently
CMaoxian: so this sucker bears close watching at the very least (pun intended)
james: im with you - been waitin for a phat panic to get long these builders
james: but thats me
CMaoxian: speaking of the homebuilders….
nickm: what is "phat panic"?
james: blood in the streets
Zoomie: when my mother in law is late for dinner
nickm: you mean when you are late :)
jfra: lol
CMaoxian: here’s Hovnanian’s chart, the hardest hit among them:
CMaoxian:

james: 55 - im all in
james: even if its for 3 pts
jfra: nice chart CM
CMaoxian: HOV has broken hard, all the way back down to the highs earlier this year which are acting as "support"
jfra: i see 55 gap
james: subdivision where i live close to
james: for the past 10 years they’ve sellin lots
james: now - now
james: they have a "closeout"
james: the builders know
CMaoxian: next is DR Horton, builders of the Prairie Palace
CMaoxian:

CMaoxian: all the homebuilders charts are similar of course, i’m just featuring the hardest hit
jfra: curious to fib #’s on these
james: fibs are alway subjective
CMaoxian: the weekly trend on all these puppies remains UP at the moment, despite all of the daily trends having turned down
james: i was lookin for a panic in these today
james: no dice
CMaoxian: next up is Centex:
CMaoxian:

chud: how do you define the trend, cm?
CMaoxian: Fuzzy defines it for me, which is of course proprietary, lol
CMaoxian: but you can use something like price being above or below both the 20 day and 50 day exponential moving averages, which is about as simple as it gets
chud: i’m gonna have to get fuzzy drunk one of these days and try to get some secrets outta him
james: hey chud - i’ll buy
james: what are the odds of a break of that previous high? - thats a buy - short term
CMaoxian: hi foo
foofighter: hi CM
CMaoxian: last homebuilder chart to consider is my favorite, Toll Brothers:
CMaoxian:

james: i love TOL
james: trading it anyway
CMaoxian: you can see that TOL has broken fairly hard too, but hasn’t yet returned to the highs set earlier this year
CMaoxian: frankly that daily chart looks ugly, but i look at their numbers and think, hrm, they have a great business
james: way more down to go - jeff mathews had a great post a few weeks ago bout it
james: spot market playin and all
james: ty mao for the link
CMaoxian: that was a good post by Matthews about TOL, lemme find the link
chud: Playing the Spot Market for Houses, by Jeff Matthews
CMaoxian: thx chud
CMaoxian: one stat that i love to throw out is that most of TOL’s buyers have household income above 100K so they’re not a skittish bunch
CMaoxian: if you read that letter by Gary Shilling that i posted excerpts of, you may have noticed this
CMaoxian: paraphrasing Shilling: the recent leap in the share of income is going to the top 20% of Americans while the other four quintiles’ shares keep slipping.
CMaoxian: that top quintile is buying TOL homes
chud: TOL has fallen right to it’s 20 week MA. maybe holy grail?
CMaoxian: you can give the grail a shot, chud, and if it fails then you know there’s more down to come
CMaoxian: i was going to mention that, chud: the weekly grail is something to watch, for its *failure*
chud: then maybe try the 20 month
chud: one of the holy grails HAS to work
CMaoxian: not necessarily, price can slice and dice the holiest of grails
james: the thing about the builders - for me is - how can you short them now - after a break that hasnt happend in years
james: maybe that is a signal
james: k - i get it
james: need another rally for me to sell - cant sell down here
CMaoxian: so the bottom line is, is this "The Top" for the homebuilders and REITs and the answer is a decisive maybe :-)
nickm: keep in mind that tuesday/wednesday THIS WEEK are home sale #, which can move these either way
CMaoxian: thx nick, i always think the market has anticipated those numbers by now
Zoomie: Bill Cara has an interesting chart on mortgage cashouts
Zoomie: Mortgage Cashouts
james: and they aint done
CMaoxian: frankly i don’t know anyone who has cashed out
CMaoxian: i think it’s still a minor phenomenon, but what do i know.
james: mao - you missed a royale rumble with matthews and ceo of OSTK last week
james: laughed my arse off
CMaoxian: i saw it james, a friend sent it over
james: WTF?
james: was that for real?
james: thats the question i kept asking myself
jfra: gotta see Mark Cuban’s blog request..can anyone show me how to naked short OSTK..unbelieveable
james: oh yeah
james: Mao - you heard about PIMCO squeezing the shorts in the Tbond pits?
CMaoxian: you sent me the article james, yes
james: now thats a lesson in trading
james: tout TV (CNBC) has been all over it
james: CME has a new mag out
james: GANN, LIVERMORE< BARUCH - the legends of BOSOX owner!
CMaoxian: anyone have any day trades of note we can review?
chud: i dont know about the "of note" part
Zoomie: sure
Zoomie: ADSK on the 19th
james: SNDA - 38.05 on that phat candle day - round 2:30
CMaoxian: i’ll grab some data zoomie, and take a look
CMaoxian: we’ll look at ADSK first and then SNDA
TraderMike: sup
CMaoxian: hi mike
TraderMike: so what’s the verdict on housing? a top?
CMaoxian: it’s a definite maybe, mike ;-)
TraderMike: I knew you’d say that
Zoomie: might not do this trade again….:)
james: nice post today TM
TraderMike: thanks james
chud: looked like a nice suspect, zoomie
CMaoxian: ok where’d you enter, zoom?
TraderMike: what ticker?
CMaoxian: ADSK
Zoomie: I liked the volume, broke out to 52 week highs, but I didn’t wait for proper retracement
nickm: any chance to post the chart CM? so we all look at the same
CMaoxian: yes nick, as soon as zoomie gives me a lil more info
chud: what do you mean by proper retracement?
Zoomie: went long on 4th 15 min candle, kinda a doji
Zoomie: stopped out soon after
TraderMike: hard to avoid that with the action in the indices today
chud: TM: this trade was on friday
TraderMike: ah
Zoomie: market was strong at time, then tanked
james: wild reversal
james: even in the oils
james: considering earl didnt have that bad a day
CMaoxian: that’s not a dummy bar, zoom
Zoomie: yes, I see
TraderMike: I would have been concerned about it being pinned to 40 for options expiration on Friday
Zoomie: no real retracement
Zoomie: k
TraderMike: which is why I take those days off
Zoomie: anyhow, entered 40.89, exit 40.55
CMaoxian:

Zoomie: thanks TM, I follow your blog, not close enough I guess;)
james: thats about how i play it zoom
james: that might not be what you want to hear - but
james: thats my max R
Zoomie: lesson I guess is it was not my trade plan
Zoomie: jumped the gun
james: its hard not to scratch that itch
CMaoxian: yeah that’s jumping the gun zoom
CMaoxian: the good part is you stuck to your stop and took a small loss
james: word
james: thats kept myself afloat
CMaoxian: hi lurch
james: it is hard though
lurker: Hi, Chairman!
chud: it’s kept my blowout slow and painful
james: i hate it
james: i’ve started scaling - into and out of positions
CMaoxian: the tone was kind of lacklustre last Friday, so that didn’t help either zoom
chud: anybody trade PPCO today by chance?
james: ADSK - MAO - what clues would you look for "at that time" - cause, in the moment - that bar looks strong
james: just set a stop and play it?
CMaoxian: i like to see a retracement, james, or at least some real hesitation; i don’t want to be getting long above up bars
CMaoxian: ideally you have a swing low to place your protective stop beneath
james: word - i hear ya - you like those tiny bars - and then get long above those?
CMaoxian: i like orderly retracements, clearly defined swing lows, and yes, narrow range bars are ideal to get long above
CMaoxian: let’s look at this SNDA
CMaoxian: what are the details?
CMaoxian: SNDA - date entry exit etc?
CMaoxian: i’m looking at SNDA and trying to figure out when it was a suspect
CMaoxian: back on the 10th or 11th?
chud: TM: does eSignal track number of trades or trade rate?
TraderMike: not that I know of
james: TM & MAO - what do you scan for - on a real time basis, during trading, - new highs/ new lows or unusual volumer?
TraderMike: volume & big % movers:
CMaoxian: i look at both, james… what are the details of your SNDA trade
james: so - do you buy highs and sell lows - cause when i get em on my screen - thats where they are
chud: there must be somethng to hide about that SNDA trade
CMaoxian: chud did you do anything in the past week ;-)
chud: mostly stop outs.
chud: stopped out of PPCO today
CMaoxian: ok we’ll look at PPCO and call it a night
chud: entered above the 11:00 down bar
nickm: any chance to discuss for a while how to screen for candidates? what people use, tools and criteria?
chud: entry above that 3rd inside bar would’ve been better but i missed it
CMaoxian: yowza, what was driving this puppy?
CMaoxian:

chud: some kinda drug results
chud: it’s a pharma
CMaoxian: it had quite a little run before 11 AM chud
chud: yea, should that have scared me away?
CMaoxian: well the 10:15 inside bar was bettah, as you noted
CMaoxian: did you lose 30 cents on it?
chud: just lost 20. i tightened the stop up a bit when the tone started to turn south. shoulda closed it out for a scratch in retrospect.
chud: would you have held the position or closed with a sharp tone change like today?
Zoomie: seems like they run the stops at lunch
Zoomie: when the volume is low
chud: seems like it zoomie
james: im out - thanks again CM & TM
jam
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| Time: 8:00 am (utc+8) Comments (3

hefeiddd

CMaoxian: yes, jfra
CMaoxian: of the four, only ALKS met the criteria on July 1
CMaoxian: here’s the ALKS chart
CMaoxian:
james: oops i meant now
CMaoxian: yes james, now as well, but there’s a difference
CMaoxian: you see on the ALKS chart i posted how the Japanese candlestick is a hammer? that’s a good thing, whereas the candle ALKS formed today is ugly
CMaoxian: you could still put a buy stop above today’s high in ALKS, but i doubt you’d get filled
jfra: it also hasn’t pulled back to it’s 20EMA
CMaoxian: anyway, the recent swing high is the immediate target and you could either take your profits there, or take partial profits and let it run
CMaoxian: it traded down to its 20 day EMA, jfra
CMaoxian: your protective stop goes below the bar that you entered above
jfra: it did on July 1, but it’s above it now..no?
CMaoxian: it traded down to it today, jfra
jfra: gotcha
chud: you think daily is the best time frame for holy grail entrys?
CMaoxian: the Holy Grail can be used on any time frame, chud, and i hate trading off the daily time frame as you know
CMaoxian: so you just scan all the stocks in all the strong sectors every night, see if the ADX is at or above 30, and then manually review the charts to see which look best
CMaoxian: Folks who have day jobs are attracted to the daily time frame because it’s something they can do, but i much prefer daytrading
james: let’s use another sector - the biotechs dance to a completely different drummer
roger: C any site to find sector components..??
roger: or are just trading the etf’s?
CMaoxian: roger, i look at the component stocks that make up each ETF
james: prophet is nice roger
roger: thx
sally: do you use any sentiment indicators with the grail?
CMaoxian: no, sally
james: Prophet
jfra: so u use daily to identify stocks and then get micro on them…
nickm: roger Yahoo! finance has good list
roger: thx james
roger: thx nickm
james: that too nick
chud: jfra: you can set up the scans for any timeframe you choose
CMaoxian: here’s Schlumberger:
CMaoxian:
Dreamtrove: Jello
CMaoxian: As you know, SLB is an Oil Service/Energy sector stock
sally: pudding?
chud: i’m currently still holding half of my position in a successful holy grail trade of XLE.
CMaoxian: dozens of Energy stocks all set up on this day
jfra: do you start scaling out at immediate target?
CMaoxian: jfra, that’s a personal choice, some people just exit all, some exit part and let the rest ride
james: i’d have to admit - i’d be early entering that trade
CMaoxian: did you enter it on the same date SLB set up, chud?
chud: yes, above the July 18 bar
Dreamtrove: chairman, i question this trade
chud: i sold half at the previous high
Dreamtrove: what’s the info on which you’re buying pre-pop
jfra: nice chud
CMaoxian: here’s Burlington Resources, another energy stock, different date
CMaoxian:
CMaoxian: a nice reversal up candle to get long above in BR
Dreamtrove: i’ve seen a lot of similar charts tank though, I don’t think what we’re seeing is a technical event
Dreamtrove: It looks like technically it could’ve gone either way, but there was positive news
chud: technically it could always go either way
james: ok - let me clear something up - there is no volume study on these charts? - the red line is an avg of the adx?
CMaoxian: it’s a high probability trade, dreamy
CMaoxian: no james, the thick red line IS the ADX
james: ok
CMaoxian: i just stuck it in the volume panel for space reasons
Dreamtrove: is this adx overlayed on the volume then?
CMaoxian: yes, dreamy
CMaoxian: left scale for the observant is ADX
jfra: interesting stuff
CMaoxian: Utilities have been super strong too, so here’s a boring utility stock that set up
CMaoxian: Public Service Enterprise, 6th’s home utility i believe
6thworld: this is quite an interesting way to set up a trade
CMaoxian:
chud: in my charting program, for ADX, I am given DXPeriod and Average. What would you set Average to on these, if DXPeriod is 14?
CMaoxian: it ain’t called the Holy Grail for nuttin, 6th
6thworld: wouldn’t you say that everone is trading this setup then?
james: there’s 2 entries on that chart - yum yum
CMaoxian: everyone who has read Raschke’s book and has the patience to look for them every night might, 6th
sally: what is your win percentage on this set up, cm?
CMaoxian: i never play it, sally
CMaoxian: i’m just yacking about it
sally: :-)
jfra: CM, it doesn’t matter that the ADX might be sloping down and heading below 30?
CMaoxian: probably jfra, but i try not to overthink things
chud: holy grail = 100% win
6thworld: chud i doubt that
Zoomie: LBR notes that the ADX will turn down, as the stock turns down, and approaches 20 EMA
chud: thus "holy grail"
Zoomie: that is OK, and expected
sally: there is a holygrail site
6thworld: chud that would be the 10,872% question
Dreamtrove: well, chud nothing is 100% because there’s always the potential of news
CMaoxian: like anything else, this prolly works about half the time ;-)
6thworld: brb, screaming baby
jfra: Does Raschke have a setup for when investment banks botch an IPO by around 100mil?
james lmao
CMaoxian: they didn’t botch BIDU, they got it just right, an oblivious public pushed the price to stupid levels
jfra: true
james: they did price it at 64 PE
james: at 27
CMaoxian: the public prolly whipped up by those fat obnoxious bastards on CNBC
Dreamtrove: chairman, does this work when you change the timeframe?
chud: works for any timeframe dreamtrove
roger: hahahaaaaaaaaa
james: obnoxious? never
roger: CNBC=POS
sally: works even in intraday?
chud: yep sally
CMaoxian: yes, sally
CMaoxian: last chart is of a REIT
CMaoxian:
Dreamtrove: is bidu worth it though, compared to sina et al?
nickm: i have seen it become a holy trap on some shorter time frames ( 5 min es or er2) because linda I think trades es
6thworld: is that today’s chart?
CMaoxian: these charts are all thru last Friday
CMaoxian: now ASN is interesting because you could say that price recently came in and you should be looking for a grail, but look at that candle… that’s fugly!
jfra: CM, you place sell stop below low of last dark candle?
Dreamtrove: so what’s going on here, just a bounce below MA and back up above?

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hefeiddd

CMaoxian: yes, jfra
CMaoxian: of the four, only ALKS met the criteria on July 1
CMaoxian: here’s the ALKS chart
CMaoxian:
james: oops i meant now
CMaoxian: yes james, now as well, but there’s a difference
CMaoxian: you see on the ALKS chart i posted how the Japanese candlestick is a hammer? that’s a good thing, whereas the candle ALKS formed today is ugly
CMaoxian: you could still put a buy stop above today’s high in ALKS, but i doubt you’d get filled
jfra: it also hasn’t pulled back to it’s 20EMA
CMaoxian: anyway, the recent swing high is the immediate target and you could either take your profits there, or take partial profits and let it run
CMaoxian: it traded down to its 20 day EMA, jfra
CMaoxian: your protective stop goes below the bar that you entered above
jfra: it did on July 1, but it’s above it now..no?
CMaoxian: it traded down to it today, jfra
jfra: gotcha
chud: you think daily is the best time frame for holy grail entrys?
CMaoxian: the Holy Grail can be used on any time frame, chud, and i hate trading off the daily time frame as you know
CMaoxian: so you just scan all the stocks in all the strong sectors every night, see if the ADX is at or above 30, and then manually review the charts to see which look best
CMaoxian: Folks who have day jobs are attracted to the daily time frame because it’s something they can do, but i much prefer daytrading
james: let’s use another sector - the biotechs dance to a completely different drummer
roger: C any site to find sector components..??
roger: or are just trading the etf’s?
CMaoxian: roger, i look at the component stocks that make up each ETF
james: prophet is nice roger
roger: thx
sally: do you use any sentiment indicators with the grail?
CMaoxian: no, sally
james:
jfra: so u use daily to identify stocks and then get micro on them…
nickm: roger Yahoo! finance has good list
roger: thx james
roger: thx nickm
james: that too nick
chud: jfra: you can set up the scans for any timeframe you choose
CMaoxian: here’s Schlumberger:
CMaoxian:
Dreamtrove: Jello
CMaoxian: As you know, SLB is an Oil Service/Energy sector stock
sally: pudding?
chud: i’m currently still holding half of my position in a successful holy grail trade of XLE.
CMaoxian: dozens of Energy stocks all set up on this day
jfra: do you start scaling out at immediate target?
CMaoxian: jfra, that’s a personal choice, some people just exit all, some exit part and let the rest ride
james: i’d have to admit - i’d be early entering that trade
CMaoxian: did you enter it on the same date SLB set up, chud?
chud: yes, above the July 18 bar
Dreamtrove: chairman, i question this trade
chud: i sold half at the previous high
Dreamtrove: what’s the info on which you’re buying pre-pop
jfra: nice chud
CMaoxian: here’s Burlington Resources, another energy stock, different date
CMaoxian:
CMaoxian: a nice reversal up candle to get long above in BR
Dreamtrove: i’ve seen a lot of similar charts tank though, I don’t think what we’re seeing is a technical event
Dreamtrove: It looks like technically it could’ve gone either way, but there was positive news
chud: technically it could always go either way
james: ok - let me clear something up - there is no volume study on these charts? - the red line is an avg of the adx?
CMaoxian: it’s a high probability trade, dreamy
CMaoxian: no james, the thick red line IS the ADX
james: ok
CMaoxian: i just stuck it in the volume panel for space reasons
Dreamtrove: is this adx overlayed on the volume then?
CMaoxian: yes, dreamy
CMaoxian: left scale for the observant is ADX
jfra: interesting stuff
CMaoxian: Utilities have been super strong too, so here’s a boring utility stock that set up
CMaoxian: Public Service Enterprise, 6th’s home utility i believe
6thworld: this is quite an interesting way to set up a trade
CMaoxian:
chud: in my charting program, for ADX, I am given DXPeriod and Average. What would you set Average to on these, if DXPeriod is 14?
CMaoxian: it ain’t called the Holy Grail for nuttin, 6th
6thworld: wouldn’t you say that everone is trading this setup then?
james: there’s 2 entries on that chart - yum yum
CMaoxian: everyone who has read Raschke’s book and has the patience to look for them every night might, 6th
sally: what is your win percentage on this set up, cm?
CMaoxian: i never play it, sally
CMaoxian: i’m just yacking about it
sally: :-)
jfra: CM, it doesn’t matter that the ADX might be sloping down and heading below 30?
CMaoxian: probably jfra, but i try not to overthink things
chud: holy grail = 100% win
6thworld: chud i doubt that
Zoomie: LBR notes that the ADX will turn down, as the stock turns down, and approaches 20 EMA
chud: thus "holy grail"
Zoomie: that is OK, and expected
sally: there is a holygrail site
6thworld: chud that would be the 10,872% question
Dreamtrove: well, chud nothing is 100% because there’s always the potential of news
CMaoxian: like anything else, this prolly works about half the time ;-)
6thworld: brb, screaming baby
jfra: Does Raschke have a setup for when investment banks botch an IPO by around 100mil?
james lmao
CMaoxian: they didn’t botch BIDU, they got it just right, an oblivious public pushed the price to stupid levels
jfra: true
james: they did price it at 64 PE
james: at 27
CMaoxian: the public prolly whipped up by those fat obnoxious bastards on CNBC
Dreamtrove: chairman, does this work when you change the timeframe?
chud: works for any timeframe dreamtrove
roger: hahahaaaaaaaaa
james: obnoxious? never
roger: CNBC=POS
sally: works even in intraday?
chud: yep sally
CMaoxian: yes, sally
CMaoxian: last chart is of a REIT
CMaoxian:
Dreamtrove: is bidu worth it though, compared to sina et al?
nickm: i have seen it become a holy trap on some shorter time frames ( 5 min es or er2) because linda I think trades es
6thworld: is that today’s chart?
CMaoxian: these charts are all thru last Friday
CMaoxian: now ASN is interesting because you could say that price recently came in and you should be looking for a grail, but look at that candle… that’s fugly!
jfra: CM, you place sell stop below low of last dark candle?

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Trading MINI to the MaxLet’s take a look at MINI, which hit a new high on over nine times normal volume yesterday. Taking the long view, we see that MINI has been trending strongly for a good long while now.


MINI, Weekly Chart
On the daily, we can see the pop above the recent consolidation between $36 and $38.


MINI, Daily Chart
Finally here’s the 15-minute chart. Folks who were scanning the new high list saw MINI first thing yesterday, and the kicker was the extreme volume which made it a “front and center” stock on the screen. It finally gave a nice Dummy spot above the 10:45 bar. Always try to focus on MINImizing your risk instead of maximizing your reward.


MINI, 15-minute Chart

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Chart of the Day — Gold, Hourly ChartGold has fallen about $10 from the short entry I pointed out the other day. Yes, that’s a nice gain in just a few days time, but don’t forget to think about things in terms of risk and reward. I had no idea that gold would tank as hard as it has, but I did know exactly what the initial risk was, and that’s always the number to focus on.
If someone says I’m short gold or I’m long XYZ or whatever, ask them where their stop is, i.e. what is their initial risk. Train yourself to think in terms of risk, not reward.


Gold, Hourly Chart
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November 9, 2004
The Daily ZingerI didn’t catch this one, but my trading buddy Jono did. He noticed that it started to move late yesterday; I wasn’t paying attention.
I did however watch Quiet Days in Clichy, a movie that the Catholic Bishops Board of Review called “morally offensive… a portrait of human depravity,” which I took as a ringing endorsement. It turned out to be art house porn circa 1970. Shocking in its day no doubt, but a yawn 30-some years later. I’ve seen more human depravity in a five-minute Christina Aguilera music video.
Good night, guys.


GOAM, 1-min. Chart
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October 4, 2004
Keep an Eye on PDGPlacer Dome (PDG) is pausing here at multi-year highs and has drawn a narrow-range inside bar. $20 is an ancient “level” in PDG so it’ll be interesting to see if it runs through there quickly or stumbles here. Keep an eye on her.


PDG, Daily Chart
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Mark Knopfler — Shangri-LaThis morning on WNCW I heard Mark Knopfler’s song, Postcards from Paraguay, and really liked it. If you don’t know Mark Knopfler’s music, I recommend that you give him a listen.
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Dollar Bears and FractalsThere were two interesting articles in [url=http://wwww.barrons.com/]Barron’s[/url] this week. The first was an interview with James Turk, of Goldmoney.com:

“My expectation is that as the gold market continues to climb, just as we saw in the 1970s, people are going to come to understand that the credit expansion and the debt bubble that has been created has so debased the dollar they will look to other alternatives, tangible assets of all sorts, but particularly gold and, in a broader sense, commodities.”
“… capital controls [in the US] are a realistic possibility and the way you protect yourself against that possibility is to diversify now. Get out of the dollar now while you can still get out of the dollar. Buy foreign assets now while you can still buy foreign assets. Take advantage of the fact the dollar is still overvalued even though it is down from its peak. It has a lot more purchasing power today than it will a year or two or three down the road.”

The second was Gene Epstein’s book review of “The (Mis)Behavior of Markets” by Benoit Mandelbrot and Richard L. Hudson, which he found “impenetrable.” I think I’ll have better luck than Epstein, and look forward to reading it.

“Mathematician-turned-economist Benoit Mandelbrot argues convincingly that standard financial tools like the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Black-Scholes model of option pricing are crippled by naive assumptions: that markets are never illiquid, that price moves are always continuous and that price volatility follows the standard bell-curve pattern of freshman statistics.”

Standard financial theories are riddled with naive assumptions? That’s putting it lightly!
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Sentiment Update for the Week Ending October 1, 2004Last week the market put in a “whammy” bar (gap down open followed by a close near the high), which has no doubt trapped a lot of folks on the wrong side. We’ll see how much juice this gives the market to go up. The ISE Sentiment Index (top panel of the chart) spiked up on Friday, which is bullish as well. All this in the face of $50 crude.
I post this “sentiment” chart every Monday morning, which shows exactly where I’ve put money to work over the last 12 months.


Vanguard Total Stock Market VIPERs, Weekly Chart
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August 24, 2004
Oh! Look at Me NowThe best thing about the movie L.A. Confidential is the music. I was especially pleased to hear Lee Wiley’s version of Oh! Look At Me Now. (She’s way at the top of my Top Female Singers list.) [Special thanks to John Black for correcting my transcription of her lyrics.]

I’m not the girl who cared ’bout money
I’m not the girl who cared about fortunes and such
Never cared much
Oh, look at me now
I never knew rhinestones from rubies
I never knew a mink from a sable or seal
Phonies from real
Oh, look at me now
Got a new man, what a man
He’s no handsome Errol Flynn
I like his face, and his bank is Chase
Half a million dollars ain’t tin
Oh I’m the girl longed for a cottage
So I’m the girl who’s got an estate with a gate
I’m doing great
Oh, look at me now
He gives me checks, brand new checks
I’ve got more than I deserve
I sleep till two, then what do I do?
Pour the wine and serve the hors d’oeuvres
Oh I’m the gal who’s married to Wall Street
Yes I’m the gal who’s worth about five hundred G’s
At which don’t sneeze
Oh, look at me now
Oh, look at me now

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June 29, 2004
The Wisdom of Paul RotterBits I found interesting from an interview with Paul Rotter in the July issue of Traders’:

Q: What are your strengths as a world-class trader and what are the differences between you and other traders?
A: I have the ability to get more aggressive in winning phases, to take bigger risks, and to scale back during losing times. This is contrary to human nature. The best thing is to have somebody around who is neutral to trading, who switches the screens off when a certain level of loss has been reached for the day.
Q: What role does risk management play in your trading?
A: I set a daily goal for my profit and loss, with the most important thing being the stopping limit, the maximum loss I take, before I switch off the screens.
Q: Shouldn’t a trader stick to his opinion?
A: No, definitely not. An analyst or some kind of guru has to stick to it, but a trader should have no opinion. The stronger your opinion, the harder it is to get out of a losing position.
Q: Do you do any kind of daily mental preparation?
A: Nothing specific. Actually I am motivated all the time… I see trading more as a sporting challenge and try to eliminate thoughts of money.
Q: How many hours do you spend in front of your screens?
A: Usually 5 hours, when I trade actively… in case of special events it can be up to 11 hours.
Q: Isn’t it hard to spend that much time in front of your PC? How do you maintain your concentration for such a long time?
A: That is something my Japanese colleagues asked themselves as well. I think of it as a kind of game and I forget the time, so the real trouble is more physical (eye strain) than psychological.
Q: What does one have to do to become a scalper?
A: He has to watch the orderbook for a very long time.

I love his response to that last question, it’s appropriately zen.
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Subminuette IVThe Notes really got hammered yesterday. You can see how catching the lengthy second wave is very profitable. Of course that assumes you haven’t mis-identified it as a subminuette IV. (I never tire of Idiot Wave jokes.)
<DIV class=cent


10-Year T-Note futures, 5-min. Chart time saved
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March 14, 2004
Gold Pandas
Make sure you have a bag full of Gold Pandas buried in the back yard in case of Revolution. See you next week, guys.
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January 30, 2004
Overcoming One’s Own Psychological WeaknessesBrian Lund correctly writes that “successful investing requires the ability to identify and overcome one’s own psychological weaknesses.”

“As Buffett said in a 1999 interview with BusinessWeek, ‘Success in investing doesn’t correlate with I.Q. once you’re above the level of 25. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble in investing.’
His partner at Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger, never misses an opportunity to recommend Robert Cialdini’s book ‘Influence,’ which examines why people give in to pressure from others.”

I too am a big fan of Cialdini and have recommended ‘Influence’ to many friends.
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December 6, 2003
Trading for Dummies, Q&A #95
10-Year Treasury Yield, 30-minute Chart
Once you get the basic technical trading principles down, you can trade anything that is liquid and active. Here’s the Yield Chart for the 10-Year Treasury Notes. (You can trade options on US Treasury securities at the CBOE.)
So let’s go through the steps that I’ve hammered home in 90+ lessons on Stock Trading for Dummies.
1) Is the Yield trending up or down? It’s trending down obviously.
2) Do we want to get short or get long? We want to get short, either by buying puts or selling calls.
3) Where’s a good spot to enter a position while limiting our risk? Beneath the closing price reversal UP bar in the morning at 4.264. If the trade goes bad, we will exit the position at 4.283.
4) If the trade goes in our direction, and yield falls to 4.245, we will tighten up the initial stop loss to reduce our risk.
The wrong way to play it would be to attempt to “pick a bottom,” or fade the market; blindly enter short without waiting for a good spot; getting short without setting a stop, etc. The list of errors goes on and on, but people mainly make those three big mistakes.
Traders who know themselves, who have common sense, who are disciplined, and who have the ability to keep it simple will do just fine. Remember that many people in the market are either uneducated or uninformed. And most of the few who are educated and informed waste their time building “scenarios” and end up defeating themselves by trying to outsmart the market.
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December 5, 2003
Trading for Dummies, Q&A #94

Nanogen, 30-minute Chart
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Thursday, December 4?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Thursday, December 4?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 5.89 on a b


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December 4, 2003
Trading for Dummies, Q&A #92 & #93

Nanogen, 30-minute Chart
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Wednesday, December 3?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Wednesday, December 3?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 5.29 on a buy stop above the 10:30 down bar.
4) Initial Protective Stop: 4.74. (max. 10.4%)
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) End of day. Could sell half, carry half, or just close it all at once.
Sentiment was once again positive in the morning so I was looking long. And once again there was a huge burst of selling in the afternoon which made it difficult for the longs to stay strong into the close.
NGEN set up nicely but the initial risk was so wide that I only bought 900 shares. As the 11 o’clock up bar formed I moved my stop up to $5.06 to get the risk down to a more reasonable amount, and before leaving at lunchtime I uncharacteristically moved my stop to breakeven.
The stock closed at $5.74 (I sold a nickel above there) for a gain of 8.51% from entry giving a negative reward to risk ratio off the initial stop, which stinks. If I were less hard on myself, I would call it a 2 to 1 reward to risk winner from the tightened stop, but that wouldn’t be terribly honest.



Altair Nanotechnologies, 30-minute Chart
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Wednesday, December 3?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Wednesday, December 3?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 2.55 on a buy stop above the 10:30 down bar.
4) Initial Protective Stop: 2.40. (max. 5.88%)
5) Right after you enter the position or


November 15, 2003
Trading for Dummies, Q&A #78 & #79
Portal Software, 30-minute Chart
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Friday, November 14?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Friday, November 14?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Down. You’d be looking short.
3) Short at 8.44, 8.57 on sell stops below the 10:30 and Noon inside bars, respectively.
4) Initial Protective Stop: 8.86. (max. 4.98%) / 8.69 (max. 1.40%)
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) End of day. Could cover half, carry half, or just close it all at once.
I’ve adjusted the scale on the PRSF chart so the bars are visible. When a stock gaps down as violently as PRSF did the bars become scrunched and you have to manually adjust the scale. In any event, PRSF was similar to my recent play in PCLN.
The initial stop was wide at nearly 5% so it was smart to size the trade at 1000 shares. The noon bar then presented a good spot to lower the stop, and if you were inclined, to short more shares. Since the noon bar gave a chance to risk only 1.4%, it was possible to short another 3000 shares below it, keeping the expected loss in my comfort zone by moving the stop down to $8.69 on the whole position.
The stock closed at $8.40 which gave a gain of 1.61% from the combined entry, so it was a failed trade (reward to risk of 1:1). Yes, you can make hundreds of dollars and still consider a trade a failure. People who make $2 while risking $2 don’t last long in this game.

Superconductor Technologies, 30-minute Chart
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Friday, November 14?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Friday, November 14?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 6.02 on a buy stop above the 11:30 down bar.
4) Initial Protective Stop: 5.90. (max. 1.99%)
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) End of day. Could sell half, carry half, or just close it all at once.
SCON was a straightforward long play. 4000 shares was a decent size to buy given the initial risk of around 2%. The stock closed at $6.41 for a gain of 6.48% from entry… reward to risk at better than 3:1.
Everybody knows the four cardinal rules of trading, but so few people follow them:

• Trade with the trend
• Cut losses short
• Let profits run
• Manage risk

Intraday sentiment started the day flattish to down then broke quite hard in the afternoon with a burst of selling. This helped the PRSF position out but was detrimental to the SCON long.
Screen capture of my intraday Watch List:

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November 13, 2003
Trading for Dummies, Q&A #75
Novell, 30-minute Chart
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Wednesday, November 12?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Wednesday, November 12?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 8.35 on a buy stop above the 11:30 down bar.
4) Initial Protective Stop: 8.22. (max. 1.56%)
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) End of day. Could sell half, carry half, or just close it all at once.
……….
NOVL was unusually active (it did 29,000+ trades on the day) and gave a very nice, narrow range down bar to execute against, with initial risk at only 1.56%. 4000 shares was a nice drop-in-an-ocean-of-liquidity position size. The stock closed at $8.97 giving a gain of 7.43% from entry for a reward to risk ratio of around 4.75 : 1.
The trouble that some folks have is that they’re always thinking in terms of “2B tops” and worried about getting trapped or picked off, which makes them unable to enter strongly trending markets. Catching big trending days (like yesterday) is where you make the big money. Trying to scalp 2 points a day by gaming the little traps in the S&P futures is going to make you old, tired, and cynical really fast.
The broad market moved up strongly as my intraday sentiment chart indicates (see below), so I was looking long obviously. Anyone who was looking short hasn’t learned the lesson Jim Croce taught when he wrote the popular song, You Don’t Mess Around With The Trend:

‘You don’t tug on Superman’s cape
You don’t spit into the wend
You don’t pull the mask off the old Lone Ranger
And you don’t mess around with the trend’

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November 8, 2003
Trading for Dummies, Q&A #72
WebMD, 30-minute Chart
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Friday, November 7?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Friday, November 7?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 8.76 on a buy stop above the 10:30 inside bar.
4) Initial Protective Stop: 8.62. (max. 1.60%)
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) End of day. Could sell half, carry half, or just close it all at once.
HLTH had an initial risk of 1.6% so 3500 shares was a good sized position. The stock closed at $9.19 giving a gain of 4.91% from entry for a 3:1 reward to risk ratio. There was a second nice entry off the 1 PM down bar which provided a tiny amount of risk as well (1.35%). Learning how to manage your risk is the #1 thing you have to concentrate on.
Screen capture of my intraday Watch List:

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October 31, 2003
Trading for Dummies, Q&A #63

Akamai Technologies, 30-minute Chart
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Thursday, October 30?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Thursday, October 30?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 7.76 on a buy stop above the 11:00 inside bar.
4) Initial Protective Stop: 7.58. (max. 2.32%)
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) End of day. Could sell half, carry half, or just close it all at once.
AKAM was extremely active doing about 38,000 trades on the day, so you couldn’t miss it. The stock closed at $8.03 giving a gain of about 3.5% from entry. The initial risk of 2.32% would give a fairly unsatisfactory reward to risk ratio of 1.5 : 1, but AKAM was flying so fast it would have been prudent to move the initial stop up to $7.69 very quickly, which would have resulted in a much sweeter ratio (4:1).
Remember that once you know what to watch for, the real trick is learning good money management, and most people get bogged down looking for some “system” when they should really be thinking about how to manage risk.
Screen capture of my intraday Watch List:

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October 22, 2003
Trading for Dummies, Q&A #53

EarthLink, 30-minute Chart
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Tuesday, October 21?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Tuesday, October 21?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 8.18 on a buy stop above the 11:30 inside bar.
4) Initial Protective Stop: 8.07. (max. 1.34%)
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) End of day. Could sell half, carry half, or just close it all at once.
The risk in the ELNK trade was very modest at only 1.34% — skittish traders could have chosen to move their protective stop to breakeven almost immediately. The stock closed at $8.54 representing a gain of 4.4% from entry, with a better than 3:1 reward to risk ratio.
Folks who blindly bought on the release of ELNK’s Q3 numbers had a great day, but the question is where did they place their initial protective stop? What if the stock reversed moments after they put the trade on? I like to quantify risk and set chart-based stops… I can’t just “wing it,” and I suspect that if I tried to wing it, the first thing that would take flight would be my trading capital, straight into a nose dive.
Screen capture of my intraday Watch List:

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October 15, 2003
Trading for Dummies, Q&A #48
Sirius Satellite Radio, 30-minute Chart
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Tuesday, October 14?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Tuesday, October 14?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 2.39 on a buy stop above the 10:30 inside bar.
4) Initial Protective Stop: 2.33. (max. 2.51%)
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) Stopped out on 4:00 bar.
Even though the initial risk was only 2.51% it would be sensible to move your stop up to $2.35 after being filled, bringing your risk down to 1.67%. SIRI has jumped about 25% in the last several days so it was pretty stretched.
The stock went more or less nowhere all day and I expected to be able to exit at least 3 or 4 cents above my entry at end of day, but got flushed out as the stock was driven down in the last 20 minutes of the day. It’s better to be stopped out than trapped long!
You can see how a “shooting star” forms on the daily charts by looking at the SIRI chart’s intraday action. Obviously I would be looking at SIRI from the short side once trend flips down and begin to target the 2.10 - 2.20 level.
Screen captures of my intraday Watch Lists:




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September 18, 2003
Trading for Dummies, Q&A #24
Finisar, 30-minute Chart
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Wednesday, September 17?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Wednesday, September 17?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 2.46 on a buy stop above the 11:30 bar.
4) Initial Protective Stop: 2.38. (max 3.25%)
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) End of day. Could sell half, carry half, or just close it all at once.

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August 30, 2003
Trading for Dummies, Q&A #11
Corvis, 30-minute Chart
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Friday, August 29?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Friday, August 29?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile … (CORV became a top unusual suspect on 8/28.)
2) Up. You’d be looking long … (This was a bit tricky since trend flipped up intraday)
3) Long at 1.28 on a buy stop above the 11:30 bar … (Look at that gorgeous narrow range inside bar!)
4) Tighter: 1.25. Looser: 1.24 … (when playing these penny stocks I find it helpful to think in terms of X 100)
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) End of day. Could sell half, carry half, or just close it all at once.
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August 29, 2003
Trading for Dummies, Q&A #10

Apollo Group, 30-minute Chart
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Thursday, August 28?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Thursday, August 28?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile … (APOL became a top unusual suspect on 8/27.)
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 62.09 on a buy stop above the 11:00 bar.
4) Tighter: 61.86. Looser: 61.81.
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) End of day. Could sell half, carry half, or just close it all at once.
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August 28, 2003
Trading for Dummies, Q&A #9
Flamel Technologies, 30-minute Chart
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Wednesday, August 27?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Wednesday, August 27?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 26.81 on a buy stop above the 11:00 bar.
4) Tighter: 26.62. Looser: 26.43.
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) Stopped out on 3:00 bar.
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August 27, 2003
Trading for Dummies, Q&A #8

NaPro BioTherapeutics, 30-minute Chart
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Tuesday, August 26?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Tuesday, August 26?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 1.89 on a buy stop above the 11:30 bar.
4) Tighter: 1.83. Looser: 1.82.
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) Stopped out on 1:30 bar.
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August 26, 2003
Trading for Dummies, Q&A #7

McDATA, 30-minute Chart
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Monday, August 25?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Monday, August 25?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Down. You’d be looking short.
3) Short at 10.54 on sell stop below the 11:00 bar.
4) Tighter: 10.60. Looser: 10.68.
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) End of day. Could cover half, carry half, or just close it all at once.
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August 23, 2003
Trading for Dummies, Q&A #6
Hemosol, 30-minute Chart
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Friday, August 22?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Friday, August 22?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Attempted long with buy stops above 10:30, 11:00, 11:30, and Noon Bars.
4) No fill, so no stop.
5) Right after you weren’t filled off the noon bar.
6) No fill, so no exit.
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August 22, 2003
Trading for Dummies, Q&A #5
Aastrom Biosciences, 30-minute Chart
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock on Thursday, August 21?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock on Thursday, August 21?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 1.03 on a buy stop above the 11:00 bar.
4) Tighter: 1.00. Looser: 0.98.
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) End of day. Could sell half, carry half, or just close it all at once.
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August 21, 2003
Trading for Dummies, Q&A #4
Internet Initiative Japan, 30-minute Chart
I didn’t plan to write another Q&A but I got deluged with email asking me to show a play on the short side, so here it is. When something cracks as badly as IIJI did there’s a good chance of a violent snap-back, which is a risk you have to be aware of. But IIJI just continued to collapse, so you had that going for you, which was nice (written with Carl Spackler in mind).
One sensitive soul wrote in to ask if I wasn’t giving away the keys to the kingdom with these how-to posts. The answer is that good trading is 10% methodology and 90% psychology. People defeat themselves. It doesn’t matter how often you repeat basic trading principles when almost no one will practice them.
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock yesterday?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock yesterday?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Down. You’d be looking short.
3) Short at 5.59 on a sell stop below the 11:30 bar.
4) Tighter: 5.68. Looser: 5.76. (These are buy-to-cover stops.)
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) End of day. Could cover half, carry half, or just close it all at once.
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August 20, 2003
Trading for Dummies, Q&A #3
Flextronics Int’l, 30-minute Chart
Tired of these repetitive lessons yet? Well I am, so this is my last one this week. But it’s important to make sure that you understand these very basic trading principles.
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock yesterday?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock yesterday?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 12.19 on a buy stop above the 10:30 bar. (There was also an opportunity to enter above the 12 noon bar.)
4) Tighter: 12.12. Looser: 12.03.
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) End of day. Could sell half, carry half, or just close it all at once.
Back in the ancient past (1997?), I hung out at Avid Traders Chat. There were a bunch of nice, bright people who congregated there to chat about the markets and trading: alice, barbarian, bondzai, colby, craig, dr. doom (Teresa, one of the few women), fiendbear, grizzly, guliver, humble, jacad (later known as samurai), jasbond, jwhite, mina, mitstop, notop, oleman, soup, swtrans, temple, topxprt, twocents. I can’t remember everyone. I was modestly known as ’smartmoney.’
Many of us pretended to be more savvy than we really were, but everyone contributed something and it was a pleasant place to shoot the bull (no pun intended). The most revered chatter was a retiree in Florida who went by the handle ‘oleman.’ Here’s some of the common sense advice about trading that he posted at Avid back in the day: The Collected Wisdom of ‘oleman.’ It’s good stuff and should be read closely.
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August 19, 2003
Trading for Dummies, Q&A #2
Beacon Power, 30-minute Chart
You have to go where the action is, and yesterday that meant looking to the Nasdaq Small Cap Market. The purpose of these (repetitive) Q&As is to hammer home basic trading techniques. People like to make things hard, but keeping a simple approach is best.
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock yesterday?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock yesterday?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it was unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 0.62 on a buy stop above the 11:30 bar.
4) Tighter: 0.57. Looser: 0.54.
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) End of day. Could sell half, carry half, or just close it all at once.
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August 18, 2003
Trading for Dummies, Q&A #1
American Superconductor, 30-minute Chart
I don’t have as much time as usual to fool around posting stuff. On my busy days I’m simply going to put up a chart that people can use to practice their Trading for Dummies techniques.
Questions:
1) Why would you be paying attention to this stock last Friday?
2) Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this stock?
3) Where would you get long/short this stock last Friday?
4) Where would you put the initial protective stop?
5) When would you stop trading for the day?
6) Where would you exit the position?
Answers:
1) Because it’s unusually active, and very volatile.
2) Up. You’d be looking long.
3) Long at 11.83 on a buy stop above the 11:30 bar.
4) Tighter: 11.44. Looser: 11.34.
5) Right after you enter the position or lunchtime, whichever comes first.
6) End of day. Could sell half, carry half, or just close it all at once.
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July 11, 2003
Tips on Trading with the Trend
Gold Futures, Daily Chart
In this post I’ll show how to use the hourly chart in conjunction with the daily chart to make a trading decision. The trend in the daily gold futures flipped down on June 23rd, so since that time it has been smart to focus on playing GC from the short side. You can’t just get short willy-nilly, you have to drop down to a smaller time-frame to pick your spots.

Gold Futures, Hourly Chart
When I see the trend flip up on the hourly at the same time that I know the daily trend is down, I start to think about picking a spot to get short. The swing lows on the hourly chart become the key levels that I look to get short under.
The instant I’m filled short, I place my protective buy-stop cover above the swing high, and then trail the stop to protect myself, first to breakeven and then lower to lock in any profits. A handy target to expect price eventually to reach is a key low, which in this case was 343.30, the swing low on June 27th.
It’s one thing to walk through these trades using hindsight, and another thing to execute them in real-time. It’s easy to believe in the correctness of trading with the trend, but it’s often difficult to put it into practice, especially for those who get a kick out of “bucking the trend.”

“The alternative to trend following is predicting. This is a trap that nearly all traders fall into. They look at the … trading problem and conclude that the way to be successful is to learn how to predict where markets will go in the future. There is no shortage of people willing to sell you their latest prediction mechanism. We all want to believe that predicting is possible because it’s so darn much fun to make a prediction and be right.” — Bruce Babcock

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October 19, 2002
“I Gave Up Being A Contrarian When…… I discovered that everyone else was one, too.”
Martin Fridson wrote the following in his 1993 book, Investment Illusions:

“It’s gratifying to the ego to believe that you can remain rational when the crowd is euphoric or despondent. Contrarians who peddle investment advice count on this psychological motivation. Financially speaking, though, humility may be the better prescription. There’s no sure-fire system of making sure to zig when everyone else zags.”

I’m guilty of gratifying my ego in this way, thinking of myself as being above the crowd. When I was a day trader, my main method was to short stocks that had been on the fly, which was a dangerous thing to do. I guess I liked playing with fire and just got lucky that I never got badly burned. It helped that I always had a tight stop and was in front of the screen all day. Now I understand myself a little better and try to avoid playing that particular game of “chicken.”
Nevertheless, when I look at the net inflows into mutual funds, I can’t help but think “sell bonds, buy stocks.”

If you look at all the times in the past that bond inflows were negative (i.e. folks were fleeing bonds), in 1987, 1994, and late 1999 / early 2000, those were precisely the times one should have been buying bonds, not selling them. In the chart below I’ve inverted the Yield on the Ten-Year Treasury Bond to simulate bond prices, and marked the approximate areas of net outflows from bond funds with the blue rectangles.
What is it about people that makes them want to buy (stocks, bonds, gold, stamps, real estate, etc.) only as prices hit new highs?

I noted in a recent entry that Bill Gross’s gleeful rant about “Dow 5000″ may have marked the top for the bond market. I also read that his bond fund just surpassed Vanguard’s S&P 500 Index fund in terms of total assets under management, which was another red flag.
I think that one look at the currently enormous inflows into bond funds should make even the humblest investor want to “zig” as the crowd “zags.”
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September 10, 2002
Na&iuml;ve, Stupid, Masochistic
Walt Disney & McDonald’s: Price Appreciation Since 1970
Bill Gross’s recent issue of Investment Outlook makes for interesting and amusing reading. Thinking contrarily, his rant may mark a top of some kind for the bond market… take a look and decide for yourself.
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April 17, 2002
Go Fish
Razorfish tripled today after announcing that they earned $0.02 a share in Q1. It helps to have a real-time stock scanner which alerts you to abnormal trading activity if you want to catch screamers like this just as they start to fly. When the trade count and price explode like they did first thing this morning, you know where to focus your attention.
Of course any move that RAZF makes these days is little solace to the folks who bought during the bubble. It’s a long way from $0.47 to $47, or even $4.70 for that matter.
Here are some links to real-time stock scanners worth looking at: RealTick’s Hottrend, Neovest’s FirstAlert, INSIGHT, ProTradingSystems ProScan, RealityTrader’s IntelliScan, and eSignal’s Market Scanner.
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March 18, 2002
Flying High
Expedia’s stock price hit an all time high last week. Making travel arrangements online is convenient, fast, and cheap… I wouldn’t want to do it any other way. Whenever I ask the people who sit next to me on planes where they got their tickets, I almost always hear: Expedia.com (EXPE), or Travelocity.com (TVLY), or priceline.com (PCLN).
Expedia’s stock has more than tripled since the terrorist attack last Fall, proving that 1) people haven’t stopped traveling, 2) e-commerce is alive and well, and 3) the best time to buy stocks is when things look worst.
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March 8, 2002
Perfect Timing

Merrill Lynch first came out with their Exchange Traded Fund product for the Internet sector (HHH) in late September 1999. That issue preceded the final blowoff in the market and proved extremely popular. Understanding the old Wall Street maxim: “when the ducks quack, feed ‘em,” Merrill quickly issued several more Internet-related ETFs.
As you can see from the charts, proof exists that there is such a thing as superior market timing. ;-)
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February 7, 2002
Test of Top
[size=-4](2002.02.07, Close $38.75, “shooting star” reversal, 30&ordm; trend angle)

[size=-4](2002.02.07, Close $23.15, “dark cloud” reversal, 30&ordm; trend angle)

William Dunnigan wrote a tiny but fascinating book in 1952 called Gains in Grains, which is included in this recent collection of his work. He writes persuasively about various price patterns that are useful to watch for, including the Test of Top (TOT) and Closing-Price Reversal (CPR).
You can see both of these patterns in the charts above; the short side looks good from here. (Victor Sperandeo also wrote a practical chapter in his 1991 book describing how to identify a change of trend.)
I used Dunnigan’s ideas when day trading off of ten minute charts, but the methods are applicable to any time frame (indeed, they are probably more reliable on longer time frames). I’m thinking about taking a little position in one or both of the stocks above to demonstrate how I would handle this kind of longer-term “position” trade.
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March 2009

• 20: Don’t Deny Dollar Devaluation
• 19: Trading Ideas Worth the Money (Free!)
• 18: Amex Delinquency Rates
• 14: Retail Looking Past the Gloom?
• 13: TGIF (XXXV)
• 13: Book Report — Week Ending March 13, 2009
• 13: A Select Group of Qualified Professionals
• 13: How to Lose 65% in Four Days
• 12: Our Shareholders Are Pleased!!
• 12: Short Brazil for a Trade
• 11: You Will Never Catch the Low
• 10: Trading Idea on ICE
• 09: The Bank, Bloodied and Bruised
• 09: Bounce in Baltic Gives Bulls Hope
• 07: Homebuilders Move to New Low
• 06: Book Report — Week Ending March 6, 2009
• 06: Repealing Glass-Steagall Led to Second Depression
• 05: Free Daily Trading Idea Posted to Twitter
• 04: Why Can’t AIG Stiff CDS Buyers En Masse?
• 03: Systemically Significant Failing Institutions
• 02: Competing with Government-Favored Lenders

February 2009

• 28: ETF Newsletter in the Email (Paid Issue #4)
• 27: Improperly Playing Property Prices
• 26: Adverse Alternative
• 25: Zombie Bank Franchise Value
• 24: Markets Not Manipulable
• 23: Superficial Stock Selection
• 22: ETF Newsletter in the Email (Paid Issue #3)
• 20: Trend Following in Slumdog Millionaire
• 20: Book Report — Week Ending February 20, 2009
• 20: Fidelity Ignores Chart, Adds More Citi
• 18: Rebuilding America’s Food Culture
• 18: S&P 500 Next Stop Around 660
• 14: Subscribers Stop Suffering in Silver
• 13: TGIF (XXXIV)
• 13: The Person Said
• 13: Book Report — Week Ending February 13, 2009
• 12: Print Money and Drive Assets to Gold
• 11: Adapting Our Program As Conditions Change
• 10: Foolish Labor of Love
• 09: The Root of All Midnight Blues
• 09: A Series of Ill-timed Bets
• 07: ETF Newsletter in the Email (no longer free!)
• 06: Book Report — Week Ending February 6, 2009
• 06: New Furniture (#1 in a series)
• 05: Do Two Things Well
• 04: $10 Trillion of Stranded Debt
• 04: Particularly Good at Picking Bonds (or Noses?)
• 03: Crush the National Currency
• 03: The Longer The Piece The Fewer The Readers
• 02: Gold in Rubles

January 2009

• 31: ETF Newsletter in the Email (Final Freebie)
• 30: Book Report — Week Ending January 30, 2009
• 29: Long Bond Reversal Plain as Day
• 29: Soberly Consider the Following
• 28: Animated Trading Lesson: Short FOSL
• 27: Holy Skiff
• 24: 25th Best Financial Blog
• 24: ETF Newsletter for Paid Subscribers Only
• 23: Book Report — Week Ending January 23, 2009
• 22: Failure’s Really No Success At All
• 21: Custody Bank Management Should Be Taken Into Custody
• 20: Banking Creeps Deserve Nationalization
• 19: Feedburner’s Link Splicer for Delicious is Dead
• 17: Get Gloomier: Trannies Break Down
• 16: TGIF (XXXIII)
• 15: Book Report — Week Ending January 16, 2009
• 14: Reviewing XLF Buy and Sell Signals
• 11: List of Liquid Leveraged ETFs
• 10: ETF Newsletter in the Email (Still Free!)
• 08: Hank Paulson’s Next Great Trade
• 07: No Joy with Musgo Real’s “Agua de Colonia” #1
• 07: The Trouble with Daily Leveraged Compounding
• 06: Triple Long & Short ETFs Quickly Popular
• 05: Easy Mac & Cheese in a Cup and the US Dollar
• 04: 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund Reverses
• 02: 2008 Returns for Selected Vanguard Funds

December 2008

• 12: Away for the Holiday
• 12: Some Bubble Characteristics
• 11: Headlines Lose Punch in Translation
• 11: Insuring Collateralized Debt Obligations
• 10: Lenders Pay for the Privilege
• 09: Lending the Gov’t Money for Nothing
• 08: Ho, Ho, Ho, Time to Buy Retail?
• 06: ETF Newsletter in the Email (#5 Freebie)
• 04: China 50 ETF
• 03: Eric Hoffer on Blogging
• 03: Ultra-emotional, Double Stress, 2x Moody
• 02: Renminbi Devaluation Underway
• 01: Combatants in the Class War

November 2008

• 30: ETF Newsletter in the Email (#4 Freebie)
• 28: Cheaper than Making Rupee
• 27: Fast and Heavy-handed Rate Cuts
• 26: Market Manipulation
• 25: Benny Says He’s Never Lost a Penny
• 23: Stunned by Soup
• 22: ETF Newsletter in the Email (#3 Freebie)
• 21: Arrived at Dow 7500, Next Stop 5900?
• 20: Boomers Develop Taste for Baked Beans
• 19: Betting on Buffett’s Big Bet Backfiring
• 18: Has China’s Stock Market Seen the Lows?
• 15: ETF Newsletter in the Email (#2 Freebie)
• 15: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — November 14, 2008
• 14: Rinse and Repeat
• 13: More Troubled Asses in Need of Relief
• 12: Catching the Turn in Energies
• 11: GM’s Bankruptcy-like Future
• 09: ETF Newsletter in the Email
• 08: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — November 7, 2008
• 07: Las Vegas Quicksands
• 06: Trend Followers Short McCain
• 05: Dollar Bear under Dubya Becomes Bull under Barry?
• 04: Silverado Turns Desperado
• 03: Do Bear and Bond Fund Reversals Mean the Bottom Is In?
• 01: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — October 31, 2008

October 2008

• 31: Janet Yellen Gripped by Mumbo Jumbo
• 30: A Tale of Terrible Timing (and Greed, Hubris, Ignorance)
• 29: Best Performing ETFs, Year-to-Date
• 29: He Who Sells What Isn’t His’n
• 28: New Newsletter Sample Signals — Australian Dollar
• 28: Picking Sesame Seeds Instead of Watermelons
• 27: Looking Into the Abyss
• 25: New Newsletter Soon To Launch
• 24: The Maestro: Neither Infallible Nor Omniscient
• 23: Arjun Murti Sitting Uncomfortably on His Super Spike
• 23: Lowered Expectations
• 22: The Incredible Shrinking ‘E’
• 21: Turned Out of Home at a Tender Age
• 21: Limited Upside, Unlimited Downside
• 20: Won Still Wan
• 17: TGIF (XXXII)
• 17: Hogs Get Slaughtered
• 16: Veteran Traders Disquieted
• 15: Trade in Salted Fish Products Remains Brisk
• 14: Snap!
• 13: Unwilling to Bear Counterparty Risk with Any Entity at Any Price
• 13: China Should Now Purchase the State of Alaska
• 11: Small Caps Close at All-Time Relative High
• 10: Forced Selling
• 09: Interviews with Nicolas Darvas
• 09: Augmented Downside Risks
• 08: Long-term Dow Industrials with Key Fibonacci Levels
• 07: Booyah or Boohoo? What to Make of Cramer’s Panic
• 07: Putting Lenders’ Claims on Ice
• 06: Uncoordinated European Leaders Drop the Ball
• 04: Hunkering Down in Bonds and Bagelfuls
• 02: Short McMansions, Long Self-Storage

September 2008

• 30: Historical Look at the Volatility Index
• 27: TGIF (XXXI)
• 27: The Deafening Roar of Silent Bank Runs
• 26: Ranking Among My Biggest Failures
• 25: The Merchant of Omaha
• 25: All Animals Are Equal…
• 24: Paulson Actively Shorting Shite
• 23: A Life Spent Considering My Dismal Future
• 23: Textbook Short Squeeze
• 22: Buffett’s Canary in the Coal Mine Went Ignored
• 20: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — September 19, 2008
• 19: SEC: a Threat to Fair and Orderly Markets
• 18: TED Spread at Multi-decade High (Dept. of Try, Try Again)
• 18: Say a Little Prayer
• 16: TED Spread at Multi-decade High
• 15: Turning in Their Maseratis*
• 14: Cool It
• 13: Is the IYR Leading the XLF?
• 12: TGIF (XXX)
• 12: Lehman, The Bell Tolls for Thee
• 11: Bull Market in Lehman’s Credit-Default Swaps
• 10: Holding $65 Billion of Overvalued Mortgage Assets
• 08: Market Stability, Mortgage Availability and Taxpayer Protection - (Pity the Shareholders)
• 06: Sticking with Staples
• 05: TGIF (XXIX)
• 05: Yelling Campfire in a Crowded Trade
• 05: Best Places to Begin Life as a Drone
• 04: Unnaturally Bad Gas Pains
• 04: Feeling Juiced
• 02: Wimpy Gustav Gives Rise to Gap
• 02: The Week That Was (Ending August 29, 2008)

August 2008

• 30: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — August 29, 2008
• 29: Dubious Youth Trends from Spain
• 28: You’re a Bagman, Not an Attorney
• 28: Shortchanging Our Shroff
• 27: Citi Gets Serious: Ceases Color Copies
• 26: AIG Shareholders AIGhast
• 23: A Few Pictures from the Olympics
• 22: Gold and the Golden Ratio
• 22: Complex, Opaque, Illiquid
• 21: Fragile Faith in Fannie, Freddie
• 20: Schadenfreude File: New Century Running on Fumes
• 19: Schadenfreude File: Merrill Loaded for Bear
• 19: CMBS BBB- Spread: Now Over 2270 Basis Points
• 19: Corrupt Culture on Display
• 18: CSI China: What a Bloodbath
• 17: The Price of Electricity in Beijing
• 15: TGIF (XXVIII)
• 14: Losing All Your Funds Very Quickly
• 13: Conspicuous by His Absence
• 13: Will a Top Commodity Trader Soon Be Worth One Fifth His 2008 Salary?
• 12: Was Gold’s Run to $1000/Ounce the Ultimate Trap?
• 12: The Loneliness of the Long Worried Regulator
• 11: You Adapt, Evolve, Compete or Die
• 09: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — August 8, 2008
• 08: What Goes 上 Must Come 下
• 08: AIG Shareholders in AIGony
• 07: Latest Addition — Chinese Zodiac — Dog
• 06: Of Significant Concern to the Committee
• 05: Whipping Into Line All Wandering Fancies, Stray Ideas, and Tangential Thoughts
• 05: Commodities Bulls CRYing
• 03: Privatizing Profits, Socializing Losses
• 02: Where’s Robert Prechter When You Need Him?
• 01: TGIF (XXVII)
• 01: Experiment with Obtrusive Ad Complete

July 2008

• 30: Weak Constitution, Strong Gold
• 29: Beating Mother Merrill into Submission
• 29: Prem Watsa’s Deep Breathing Technique
• 29: 22 Cents on the Dollar
• 28: Dilapidated Cultural Souls
• 28: Teaching Spiritual Growth to Money-Grubbers
• 25: TGIF (XXVI)
• 25: Buyers Say F-that to F-series Pickups
• 24: Has Crude Topped? Probably Not.
• 23: 14% of Option-ARM Customers Have Zero or Negative Equity
• 22: The Art of Buying Lower Lows
• 21: The Hamburger Helper of Finance
• 21: Extracting Knowledge from Unstructured Business Plans
• 21: Hobbled Short Sellers Unable to Cull the Weak
• 18: TGIF (XXV)
• 18: Bloomberg a Buyer as Merrill Sheds Assets
• 18: Toddler T’s First Bike
• 17: Brilliant Boy Gets Back to Basics
• 17: A Slave to the Tape
• 17: Maliciously Manufactured Short Covering
• 16: SEC Encourages Short Sales of Crude Oil
• 15: Explicitly Guaranteeing a Dollar Decline
• 14: Isolated Splendors
• 14: No Doc Loan Specialist Goes No Bid
• 11: TGIF (XXIV)
• 11: Battling Bank Runs, Brokers Borrow from Ben
• 10: Seeing No Reason
• 09: Corn Cracks But Does Jimmy (Rogers) Care?
• 08: On a Mission to Enter Single Digits
• 07: A New Cycle of Currency Debasement
• 07: Persistent Large Inflows
• 07: For Entrepreneurs, Deviation is a Virtue
• 04: TGIF (XXIII)
• 04: Monthly Crude Mighty Stretched
• 04: Experiment with Obtrusive Ad
• 03: General Demoted

June 2008

• 30: Adjusting to $3.37 per Gallon Gas in China
• 28: Animated Trading Lesson from the Box: Short SRP
• 27: TGIF (XXII)
• 27: That Terrible Sucking Sound
• 25: The Big Picture — 13-week Treasury Bill (Yield), Last Decade
• 24: Keepin’ It Real
• 24: The Value of Failed Trade Set-ups
• 23: Think Off-center
• 23: Asia’s Worst-Performing Currency
• 21: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — June 20, 2008
• 20: Rapid Price Adjustment in the Crude Oil Market
• 20: Housing the Poor in McMansions
• 20: Surviving on $900,000 a Year
• 19: Frayed Shirtcuff Technician Saves the Day
• 18: China A Share Fund
• 18: Seeing the Ball and Hitting It Hard
• 17: The Unshortable Cascade
• 17: Like a Lead Balloon
• 15: Quoting Jesse Livermore as Holding Bullish Views
• 13: TGIF (XXI)
• 13: Animated Trading Lesson from the Box: Short UAUA
• 11: Lesson in Trend Trading: Crude Oil
• 10: Bad Day for Stocks in China
• 10: A Kind of Poison
• 10: It’s Like a Locomotive Running Through Your Stomach
• 07: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — June 6, 2008
• 06: A Few Notes on the Chinese Consumer
• 05: Yield Curve for Chinese Sovereign Debt
• 04: Lousy Lehman’s Delicious Lunchtime Lull
• 04: Lehman Short — Swing and a Miss
• 03: Herbie Sandler, Very Keen Observer of the Market
• 03: Regional Bank (KRE) Short Idea– Animated Edition
• 02: The Wisdom of J.R. Simplot

May 2008

• 31: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — May 30, 2008
• 31: Gold’s Relative Performance in Point & Figure
• 30: Excellent News on the Pants Front
• 30: Highlights from the Box in May
• 29: The Old-fashioned Monumentalist Approach
• 28: Sizzling Steaks Topped with Seasoned Butter
• 28: Mining the Gold Miners from the Short Side
• 28: Freebie Long Idea in China ETF, FXI
• 27: Will Corn Crack or Send More Shorts to Slaughter?
• 26: The Courage of Misguided Conviction
• 26: You Are Going to See a Lot of Banks Disappear
• 25: Review of Trading Ideas from the Box — March 2008
• 24: Financials Move to New Relative Low
• 23: TGIF (XX)
• 23: Controlled Appreciation of the Yuan
• 22: David Tice’s Dead Houseplant Fund
• 21: Crude Catapults on Goldman Groupthink
• 21: Review of Trading Ideas from the Box — January 2008
• 20: Review of Trading Ideas from the Box — December 2007
• 20: Commodities Monitor
• 17: TGIF (XIX)
• 16: Squeezes Tooth Paste from the Top
• 15: Artisan Bread Continues to Crumble
• 14: Arriving at Adulthood with Heads Full of Lies
• 13: FINVIZ is the Shiznit
• 13: Oh Ship! No Financing Available
• 10: George Soros’s Pseudo-philosophical Twitterings
• 10: Toasting Aspirations to Artisan Bread
• 08: Cyclone May Blow Sequential Count Out of the Water
• 08: Will the Regional Banks Break to New Lows?
• 07: Guessing When Crude Will Hit $200
• 06: Breaking from the Unreflecting Herd
• 06: Simultaneously Proud and Aggrieved
• 05: Shorting Starbucks, Missing Big Bucks
• 03: Overcoming the Fear of Failure
• 03: Short Artisan Bread as Busted Boomers Tighten Belts
• 03: TGIF (XVIII)
• 01: Rewriting the Recent Fed Statement
• 01: PetSmart Short Not a Dumb Idea

April 2008

• 30: Free Trading Ideas (One Day Tease)
• 30: What Happens When You Try to Cancel the Online Wall Street Journal (Part III)
• 29: Gold Hanging on by Its Fingernails
• 28: Unprotected from the Madness of Crowds
• 28: He Tried to Solve the Problem by Running Away
• 28: Latest Addition — Model 337, Buffalo Stampede
• 27: Infrastructure, Commodities, Energies
• 25: TGIF (XVII)
• 24: ESL: English as a Shouted Language
• 24: Deferred Outperformance
• 23: Less Land, More Mouths
• 23: Barbie Dolls and Beer Cans
• 23: UAUA Collapse Anticipated But Not Exploited
• 22: The Worst Thing You Can Have Is Models and Spreadsheets
• 20: There Will Be More Bad Movies from Paul Thomas Anderson
• 18: TGIF (XVI)
• 18: See What Happens When You Brag?
• 17: Crude Over 800 a Barrel
• 17: Billionaire Gross, Envious Hypocrite
• 16: PICC Plunge Prediction Team
• 16: Will Google Fall Below $400?
• 15: Yuan Still Grossly Undervalued
• 14: Cintas Knocked on Its Ass
• 14: Forgetting the Lessons Learned about Leverage
• 14: The Unified Voice of Wall Street
• 13: Back from Sichuan
• 10: Ideas Too Good to Give Away
• 09: Harvesting the Organs at Bear Stearns
• 09: Guess the Trade Set-up for April 9
• 08: Freebies for Hong Kong Stock Traders
• 08: Jerry Yang’s Overarching Need for a Ghostwriter
• 08: Nice Trade Set-up for April 8
• 07: Rough Rice Runs Roughshod Over Shorts
• 05: Jim Sinclair’s Crazy Bet
• 05: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — April 4, 2008
• 04: This Freeze Condition
• 04: Fertilizer Trade Not a Pile of Crap
• 03: Getting to that SWaNee Shore
• 02: Nice Trade Set-up for April 2
• 02: The Cost to Fill ‘er Up in Beijing
• 01: Instilling the Wrong Values in Our Kids

March 2008

• 31: Most Read Stories, One Week (2008-3-30 21:32:14)
• 30: What It Will Look Like When the Chinese Stock Bubble Bursts (Try Try Again)
• 28: The TEd Spread: A Permanently High Plateau
• 28: Further Inducement to Subscribe to the Box’s Trade Ideas
• 26: Currencies Monitor
• 26: Highly Specialized Resource Commitment
• 26: Swinging with SWN
• 26: Little Boy Big
• 25: Bear Deal Bulletproof
• 24: AES Short — Another Big Win for the Box
• 24: The SPECTER of Coordinated Central Bank Intervention
• 22: Calling the Top in Gold… Again
• 22: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — March 21, 2008
• 21: Adding a Scroll Bar to Charts in LaunchPad
• 21: Nobody Could Have Predicted…
• 20: Other Undisclosed Factors
• 20: K.D. Lang is Not an Affordable Luxury
• 18: The One You Call Daddy Ain’t Your Pa
• 18: Treasury Bills and Gold
• 15: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — March 14, 2008
• 15: Buried Stearns
• 14: It’s Not a Chart, It’s a “Decision-support Tool”
• 13: Highbrow Pulp
• 13: Gold and Crude in Dollars, Euros, and Yuan
• 12: Fostering the Functioning of Financial Markets
• 11: CMBS BBB- Spread: Now Over 1500 Basis Points
• 11: Exxon Short Working Well as Crude Hits All-time Highs
• 10: Shopping Around the Periphery
• 08: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — March 7, 2008
• 07: Target Short on Target
• 06: What Happens When You Try to Cancel the Online Wall Street Journal (Part II)
• 06: A Guarantee of the Integrity of Volatility
• 05: Aboard for the Crash in United Airlines
• 04: Weekly Trend Filter Added to Box Ideas
• 03: Update on Long Yen Idea
• 03: Beware the Glib Helper
• 01: TGIF (XV)
• 01: Dealing with Gap Openings

February 2008

• 29: Whacky Wheat Whipsaw
• 29: Final Day of Free Trading Ideas
• 28: Life in China — Three Quick Examples
• 28: Gazillion Trading Ideas for Thursday, February 28
• 28: Dollar Index Hits New Low — A Look at the Monthly Chart
• 27: User Guide for Trade Ideas Generated by “The Box”
• 27: 20 Years of Silver Prices
• 27: Seven Trading Ideas for Wednesday, February 27
• 26: The Penny Gap
• 26: One Trading Idea for Tuesday, February 26
• 26: Mustn’t Hurt the Precious
• 25: The Developed World is Disappearing
• 25: Bringing Order to Hair Disorder
• 25: Gazillion Trading Ideas for Monday, February 25
• 25: Follow Up Up Up on Gold
• 23: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — February 22, 2008
• 22: Five Trading Ideas for Friday, February 22
• 21: Nine Trading Ideas for Thursday, February 21
• 20: Systematically Irrational Behavior
• 20: One Trading Idea for Wednesday, February 20
• 20: Bernanke’s Policies Greasing the Wheels
• 19: Five Trading Ideas for Tuesday, February 19
• 19: Bernanke’s Policies Run Against the Grain
• 18: L’élitisme Démocratique
• 18: Northern Rocked
• 18: Back from Vacation
• 05: Four Trading Ideas for Tuesday, February 5
• 04: Three Trading Ideas for Monday, February 4
• 03: The Frustrated Ambitions of a Striving Provincial
• 03: Cash is King, But in Which Currency?
• 03: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — February 1, 2008
• 02: I Will Teach You How To Get 10,000+ Bloglines Subscribers
• 02: And Then He Woke Up
• 02: Has Gold Peaked?
• 01: Volume-at-Price for the Euro Stoxx 50 Futures
• 01: Unacknowledged Trading Genius
• 01: Update on AYI and Preliminary January Box Results

January 2008

• 31: Two Trading Ideas for Thursday, January 31
• 31: Text Spam Indicates Chinese Real Estate Market in Trouble
• 30: Volume at Price for AYI and Spot Gold
• 30: Federal Funds Implied Probability (1/30/08 FOMC)
• 30: Weaving Fees into the Fabric of the Fund
• 29: Still Buying the Unloved
• 29: Comrades in ARMs
• 29: Never Shop at Tabletools.com
• 29: Informing Markets about Pending Losses
• 28: The Position Was Unwound Over Three Days in a Controlled Fashion
• 28: Not in My Backyard
• 28: Unauthorized Acts and Fictitious Operations
• 27: A Good Time to Buy Financials?
• 27: Tell Me Something I Don’t Already Know
• 26: Unpaid Product Placement: Dado Cubes
• 25: TGIF (XIV)
• 25: December Trading Ideas Spreadsheet Now Available
• 25: Il était de $73 milliards d’idiot
• 24: LINTA Short Finally Covered
• 24: Lending Stalemate: Rates Drop But Standards Tighten
• 24: Oh Such a Hungry Yearning Burning Inside of Me
• 23: One Trading Idea for Wednesday, January 23
• 23: All AAA Ratings are Faux Ratings Now
• 23: Market Reaction to Emergency Rate Cut
• 22: One Trading Idea for Tuesday, January 22
• 22: Quick Look at Various Futures Contracts
• 19: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — January 18, 2008
• 18: One Trading Idea for Friday, January 18
• 18: AMBAC Ack! MBIA DOA?
• 17: In Search of a Non-Nutty Goldbug
• 17: One Trading Idea for Thursday, January 17
• 17: Bombay’s SENSEX 30 Looks Toppy
• 16: The Best Free Web-based Stock Charts
• 16: It’s Just a Matter of Waiting
• 15: One Trading Idea for Tuesday, January 15
• 14: Insider Trading, Front-running and Stock Manipulation
• 14: Prefering Polygamy and Polyandry
• 14: ABC Stop Management in Current Pfizer Long
• 12: Unpaid Product Placement: Wedgits
• 11: Reviewing Currently Open Trades
• 11: Shanghai Gold Futures
• 10: Two Trading Ideas for Thursday, January 10
• 09: Stop and Stop-Limit Orders
• 09: One Trading Idea for Wednesday, January 9
• 09: The Frankensteinian Levered Body of Shadow Banks
• 09: Multi-layered Feeder Fund and Fund-of-funds Structure
• 09: Arbitrary But Consistent (ABC) Stop Management (Part VI)
• 08: US Sectors Relative Percent Change Over the Last Year
• 08: Ten Trading Ideas for Tuesday, January 8
• 08: Who Needs a Smart Stop When You’re a Lucky Dummy?
• 08: Arbitrary But Consistent (ABC) Stop Management (Part V)
• 07: Obama.com More Than Doubles in Four Trading Days
• 07: A Half-assed Idea about How to Aggressively Trail a Stop
• 05: Property Development Wasn’t a Priority with the Communists
• 05: The Communication Gap Between Men and Women
• 05: Arbitrary But Consistent (ABC) Stop Management (Part IV)
• 04: TGIF (XIII)
• 04: Arbitrary But Consistent (ABC) Stop Management (Part III)
• 04: CMBS BBB- Spread: Now Over 1000 Basis Points
• 04: Five Trading Ideas for Friday, January 4
• 03: Checking Up on Crude Earl & the Yeller Metal
• 03: Four Trading Ideas for Thursday, January 3
• 03: Arbitrary But Consistent (ABC) Stop Management (Part II)
• 02: A Theater of Threats
• 02: Blue Skies, All of Them Gone*
• 02: Two Trading Ideas for Wednesday, January 2
• 01: 2007 Returns for Selected Vanguard Funds
• 01: Arbitrary But Consistent (ABC) Stop Management

December 2007

• 31: Box a Blank for Monday
• 31: Chinese Yuan Charts for 2007
• 31: A Fondness for Financials
• 28: My Shaving Supplies and Routine
• 28: Four Trading Ideas for Friday, December 28
• 28: Credit-Default Swap Spread for Pakistan’s Sovereign Bond
• 28: What Happens When You Try to Cancel the Online Wall Street Journal
• 27: One Trading Idea for Thursday, December 27
• 27: Why Is VeriSign Pegged at $38?
• 26: One Idea for Wednesday; Update on Friday’s Idea: PPDI
• 24: Phone Conversation with the Wife
• 24: Two Trading Ideas for Monday, December 24
• 23: Sterilizing Misperceptions
• 22: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — December 21, 2007
• 22: Constant Distress in Consumer Discretionary
• 21: Losing Less Money on Chinese Bank Deposits — Yippee!
• 21: Holiday Cheer as AKAM Covers Initial Risk
• 21: Fine-tuning the Model to Reach the Desired Credit Rating
• 21: Theory on Recent Mass Murders
• 20: Playing It Tight or Loose with Akamai?
• 20: The Once-in-a-lifetime, Low-risk, Incredibly High-reward Scenario
• 20: One Trading Idea for Thursday, December 20
• 19: $500 Billion Injection Narrows TED Spread Slightly
• 19: Wheat at around $10 a Bushel
• 19: Two Trading Ideas for Wednesday, December 19
• 18: Where Hedge Fund Guys Get Their Best Investment Ideas
• 18: Update on Box Ideas MAN and MSCC
• 18: One Trading Idea for Tuesday, December 18
• 17: One Trading Idea for Monday, December 17
• 17: Selected Stories (16-Dec-2007 23:05:55)
• 17: Competition and the Death of a Middle-class Mediocrity
• 16: Update and Review of a Black Box Trade
• 14: TGIF (XII)
• 14: SLIQ is Pretty Slick
• 14: Brand Name Education for Free
• 14: One Trading Idea for Friday, December 14
• 13: Five Trading Ideas for Thursday, December 13
• 12: Most Read Stories (11-Dec-2007 21:50:57)
• 12: Strains in Financial Markets
• 12: At Least Five New Trading Ideas for Wednesday, December 12
• 11: China’s Lending Rates — 5+ Year
• 11: Federal Funds Implied Probability (12/11 FOMC)
• 11: China’s Reserve Ratio — Ten Year View
• 11: One Trading Idea for Tuesday, December 11
• 09: Four Trading Ideas for Monday, December 10
• 08: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — December 7, 2007
• 05: SPY Fifth Wave Decline Price Targets
• 04: Three Month Treasury-EuroDollar (TED) Spread
• 04: Euphemism Watch: Automatic Liquidation Event
• 03: Mortgage Interest Rate Reset Schedule
• 01: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — November 30, 2007
• 01: wp_footer Exploits Continue

November 2007

• 30: Dumb Borrowers to Get “Help” from Hedge Fund Honcho
• 30: Learned Helplessness
• 30: The Techniques of Hospitality
• 29: On Fairies and Farriers
• 29: Patient Pershing’s Philanthropic Profit Pledge
• 28: Sample Beijing Apartment Sale and Rental Prices
• 27: 10-year Treasury Note Overshoots — Expect a Pause
• 27: Delegated Decision Disaster
• 27: Pickled Garlic 糖蒜
• 26: Chinese Yuan 12 Month Non-deliverable Forward
• 26: Three Random Observations
• 26: Long View: Copper, Corn, Oil, US Stocks and Wheat — Priced in Gold
• 25: Bucking Euro Trend a Bad Bet
• 24: Spam Links Mysteriously Appear in Footer
• 23: TGIF (XI)
• 23: Looking for Sustained and Substantial Yuan Appreciation
• 22: Drop Your Pfandbriefs and Take Cover
• 22: The Wind at One’s Back: Long Crude, Short Dollars
• 21: Most Read Credit Crisis Stories (20-Nov-07)
• 21: CMBS BBB- Spread: Code Red Critical Emergency
• 21: Monthly View of Freddie and Fannie
• 20: Banking on Gullibility and Inertia
• 20: Menu for Xiabu Xiabu (呷哺呷哺)
• 20: The Law of Historical Memory
• 20: On Treadmills and Spaceships
• 20: Citigroup Recommends Overweighting Citigroup
• 19: A China Scholar Stuck in the Past
• 19: Absolutely Fabulous, Darling
• 19: Car Insurance Bill in Beijing
• 19: Oil Change Bill in Beijing
• 19: It’s the Editor that Creates Value, not Spellcheck
• 17: Diamonds and Perles: A Stealth Foreign Policy Question?
• 17: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — November 16, 2007
• 17: FedEx and Copper: Telling the Same Story
• 16: Love Your Work
• 16: Send Me Your Stilted, Your Plodding, Your Muddled Emails
• 16: Shanghai Copper
• 15: The Smart Way to Lose Your Ass
• 15: Timing, Texture, Temperature
• 15: Furthering the Interests of Fascism
• 15: Two Dozen High Yielding Financial Stocks
• 15: There is a Great Deal of Human Nature in People
• 14: Better Late Than Never
• 14: Off the Charts: Washington Mutual’s Dividend Yield
• 13: Piggybacking the Hong Kong Monetary Authority
• 13: Kept Bottles 存酒
• 13: E*Run on the E*Trade
• 12: Looking at the Top in the H-share Market
• 12: (Unpaid) Product Placement — WMF’s Hip Flask 2 in 1
• 11: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — November 9, 2007
• 11: Surviving at the Top of the Greasy Pole
• 09: TGIF (X)
• 09: Taxation, Nationalization, Expropriation
• 09: Don’t Confuse the H-share and A-share Markets
• 09: Intelligence, Ambition, Looks — But Not in that Order
• 09: Enhancing Your Social Profile Through an Inorganic Process
• 09: Dr. Copper and the Band of Burglarizing Vandals
• 09: Sticking Firmly with a Totally Arbitrary Price Target for Crude
• 08: Conversations with Women
• 08: Heating Bill In Beijing
• 08: Personal Questions
• 08: China’s Stock Markets Have Topped
• 07: Lucky 888 — Short-term Target for Gold
• 07: Stan Certainly is the Man
• 06: Selected Stories (6-Nov-2007)
• 05: When Fear Sets Prices
• 05: The Old Prepayment Catch
• 05: Bundchen, Avoiding Dollars, is No Dumb Blonde
• 03: Long Clean (Google), Short Clutter (Yahoo)
• 03: The Peril of Moving Beyond Parity
• 03: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — November 2, 2007
• 02: Bill from Visit to Pediatrician in Beijing
• 02: Crocs Cracks
• 01: Reward Doubled for Old Investment Newsletters
• 01: Skinny Bitches Get It
• 01: Correction Intensification
• 01: Crude Will Hit $100 No Problemo

October 2007

• 31: Federal Funds Implied Probability (Update)
• 31: Near-term Upside Potential Caution for Crude
• 30: Business and Life are Built upon Successful Mediocrity
• 30: Shameless Name Dropping
• 30: Seeing the Blindingly Obvious in a Moment of Clarity
• 30: Crude Climb Continues to Continue
• 29: Rather Late Than Early Buying Financials
• 29: Rufiyaa Times for the US Dollar
• 28: Francis Cabrel - La fille qui m’accompagne
• 28: US Dollar Already Lost Reserve Currency Status Among Gamblers
• 27: Last Dozen Books Read (III)
• 27: Trading Guru 101
• 27: TGIF (IX)
• 26: $55 Offered for Old Investment Newsletters
• 26: Hourly Crude
• 25: Inscrutable Businesses at Unreasonable Prices
• 25: Longtop Financial Technologies Limited IPO
• 24: Federal Funds Implied Probability
• 23: Top 25 Brands in China
• 23: Seeking Safety in Short-term Securities
• 21: Proprietary Digital Learning Devices
• 20: Twenty Years Later, Putting the Crash in Perspective
• 19: TGIF (VIII)
• 19: Crude Climb Continues
• 19: After-hours GOOG
• 19: Que Surpresa!
• 18: Overvalued Here, Overvalued There, Overvalued Everywhere
• 17: Crude Climb
• 17: Stir-frying Stocks
• 16: I’m Not As Smart As I Thought I Was
• 16: Eight-Legged Essay Preparation
• 15: FLABbergasted in America
• 15: Semiconductor Sector Still Sucks

September 2007

• 30: Away on Vacation for the Next Two Weeks
• 30: Buying Gold is the Purest Form of Speculation
• 29: TGIF (VII)
• 29: Cancel the Trip to Europe — DXY Officially in No Man’s Land
• 29: Most Read Stories (29-Sep-2007 9:57:46)
• 29: Unusual Suspect (SSTR) & Random Observations
• 28: No Hierarchy Above or Below
• 28: Closet Chartists Crazy Counts
• 28: Most Read Stories (28-Sep-2007 10:14:26)
• 28: Unusual Suspect (KONG) & Random Observations
• 27: CITIC Securities: Revenge of the Manicurists
• 27: Most Read Stories (27-Sep-2007 10:20:21)
• 27: Stock Du Jour (JRJC) & Random Observations
• 26: Most Read Stories (26-Sep-2007 10:01:15)
• 26: Stocks Du Jour (QQQQ vs. QID) & Random Observations
• 25: Breakfast of Champion Trend Followers
• 25: Most Read Stories (25-Sep-2007 9:44:50)
• 25: Stocks Du Jour (GOOG & XHB) & Random Observations
• 24: Canadian Investors in US Stocks - Going Nowhere Fast
• 24: A Silent Emigration of Americans
• 24: Most Read Stories (24-Sep-2007 9:08:39)
• 23: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — September 21, 2007
• 22: Stock Du Jour (ORCL) & Random Observations
• 21: TGIF (VI)
• 21: Canadian Dollar at Parity with US Dollar
• 21: Most Read Stories (21-Sep-2007 9:58:29)
• 21: Stock Du Jour (POT) & Random Observations
• 20: Dollar Index Entering No Man’s Land
• 20: Absence of Backwardation
• 20: Most Read Stories (20-Sep-2007 9:54:29)
• 20: Stock Du Jour (MON) & Random Observations
• 19: Dying is Easy, Living is Tough
• 19: Most Read Stories (19-Sep-2007 9:41:29)
• 19: Stock Du Jour (GE) & Random Observations
• 18: I Don’t Do What I Don’t Do Well
• 18: Northern Rock Crumbles (Daily & Intraday Charts)
• 18: Most Read Stories (18-Sep-2007 9:31:35)
• 18: Stock Du Jour (GSG) & Random Observations
• 17: You Have a Good Taste
• 17: Most Read Stories (17-Sep-2007 8:37:57)
• 16: Not Substitution or Conservation, Only Delusion
• 15: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — September 14, 2007
• 15: Stock Du Jour (CHL) & Random Observations
• 14: TGIF (V)
• 14: A Centipede Dies But Never Falls Down
• 14: Most Read Stories (14-Sep-2007 10:40:07)
• 14: Stock Du Jour (CTRP) & Random Observations
• 13: Long Term Look at Crude Oil Prices (in both USD and CNY)
• 13: Most Read Stories (13-Sep-2007 9:49:57)
• 13: Stock Du Jour (USO) & Random Observations
• 12: Most Read Stories (12-Sep-2007 9:39:09)
• 12: Stock Du Jour (NYT) & Random Observations
• 11: Check, Please! (#7 in a Series)
• 11: Sniff It and Smell It and Taste the Inner Body
• 11: Most Read Stories (11-Sep-2007 9:38:37)
• 11: Stock Du Jour (EDO) & Random Observations
• 10: Most Read Stories (10-Sep-2007 8:57:06)
• 08: Stock Du Jour (KSS) & Random Observations
• 07: Most Read Stories (7-Sep-2007 9:30:17)
• 07: Stock Du Jour (GLD) & Random Observations
• 06: Most Read Stories (6-Sep-2007 8:41:09)
• 06: Stock Du Jour (WMT) & Random Observations
• 05: Most Read Stories (5-Sep-2007 9:29:06)
• 05: Stock Du Jour (HPQ) & Random Observations
• 04: Most Read Stories (4-Sep-2007 9:39:00)
• 03: CMBS BBB- Spread Widens to 546 bps
• 03: Encouraging Efficiences
• 03: Favorite Lines from The Long Good-Bye
• 03: Most Read Stories (3-Sep-2007 9:46:26)
• 01: Stock Du Jour (DE) & Random Observations

August 2007

• 31: TGIF (IV)
• 31: Most Read Stories (31-Aug-2007 9:39:44)
• 31: Stock Du Jour (NOK) & Random Observations
• 30: Most Read Stories (30-Aug-2007 9:25:02)
• 30: Stock Du Jour (SCON) & Random Observations
• 29: Warren Buffett, Teenage Chart Fiend, Grows Up
• 29: Most Read Stories (29-Aug-2007 9:08:40)
• 29: Stock Du Jour (XHB Again) & Random Observations
• 28: Thoughts on Body Odor and Dairy Products
• 28: Paying the Bill that Follows the Binge
• 28: Simply a Stage of Capitalist Development
• 28: Most Read Stories (28-Aug-2007 9:23:10)
• 28: Stock Du Jour (CAF) & Random Observations
• 27: Chasing “Tail Risk”
• 27: Most Read Stories (27-Aug-2007 9:23:01)
• 26: Going Wide
• 25: Stock Du Jour (GME) & Random Observations
• 25: TGIF (III)
• 24: Most Read Stories (24-Aug-2007 9:54:38)
• 24: Stock Du Jour (CFC Intraday Again) & Random Observations
• 23: Most Read Stories (23-Aug-2007 10:05:21)
• 23: Stock Du Jour (NVDA) & Random Observations
• 22: Most Read Stories (22-Aug-2007 9:22:52)
• 22: Stock Du Jour (VMW) & Random Observations
• 21: Consextual Advertising
• 21: TreasuryBills.com
• 21: Impact of Temporary Measures Perfectly Clear: They’re Useless
• 21: Most Read Stories (21-Aug-2007 9:49:02)
• 21: Stock Du Jour (MHP) & Random Observations
• 20: CMBS BBB- Spread Widens to 475 bps
• 20: The Emptor is Plenty Caveat
• 20: Most Read Stories (20-Aug-2007 9:23:37)
• 18: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — August 17, 2007
• 18: Stock Du Jour (VXO.X) & Random Observations
• 17: Stock Du Jour (FXY Again) & Random Observations
• 17: The Downside of Spam Filtering Comments
• 16: 2/28 Loans as “Stupidity” Mortgages
• 16: Check, Please! (#6 in a Series)
• 16: Monthly Sub-prime Mortgage Reset Schedule
• 16: Stock Du Jour (CFC Intraday) & Random Observations
• 15: Stock Du Jour (MCO) & Random Observations
• 14: Values Just Get Way Out of Whack
• 14: Dollar Dump
• 14: Stock Du Jour (GS) & Random Observations
• 13: General Withdrawal from Risk Taking
• 13: The Medium is the Massage
• 13: CMBS BBB- Spread Widens to 417 bps
• 11: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — August 10, 2007
• 11: Stock Du Jour (BBW) & Random Observations
• 10: Disruption is a Euphemism for Armageddon
• 10: Stock Du Jour (WTR) & Random Observations
• 09: Three Good Marriage Jokes
• 09: Stock Du Jour (LTM) & Random Observations
• 08: US Trade-Weighted Dollar Index at All-Time Lows
• 08: Stock Du Jour (WYNN) & Random Observations
• 07: Like We Used to Could
• 07: Stock Du Jour (JNPR) & Random Observations
• 06: Measured Media
• 05: In the Fixed Income Markets We Have Armageddon
• 05: The Theology of Capitalism Is Sweeping the World
• 04: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — August 3, 2007
• 04: The Web As a Platform
• 04: Bilingual Counting
• 04: Stock Du Jour (DXD) & Random Observations
• 03: Check, Please! (#’s 4 and 5 in a Series)
• 03: Stock Du Jour (XHB) & Random Observations
• 02: Attacking in Another Direction
• 02: Ultimately Less Libidinous
• 02: Stock Du Jour (LEN) & Random Observations
• 01: Tip the Chairman and Discover His 10 Favorite Financial Stocks
• 01: Stock Du Jour (AHM) & Random Observations

July 2007

• 31: Stock Du Jour (LFC) & Random Observations
• 30: Most Desired Employers
• 29: Favorite Lines from The High Window
• 28: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — July 27, 2007
• 28: Stock Du Jour (TWM) & Random Observations
• 27: TGIF (II)
• 27: Stock Du Jour (SDS) & Random Observations
• 26: Continued Indefinite Rise
• 26: Stock Du Jour (AAPL again) & Random Observations
• 25: Checking on the Doomed Dollar
• 25: Stock Du Jour (CFC) & Random Observations
• 24: Nasty and Getting Nastier
• 24: Stock Du Jour (VWO) & Random Observations
• 23: Going Nowhere at Warp Speed
• 21: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — July 20, 2007
• 21: Stock Du Jour (OIH) & Random Observations
• 20: Stock Du Jour (GOOG) & Random Observations
• 19: CMBS BBB- Spread — Still No Relief
• 19: A Few Tips for Keeping Fit
• 19: Stock Du Jour (HUM) & Random Observations
• 18: Favorite Lines from The Lady in the Lake
• 18: A Muddle of Competing Bureaucracies
• 18: Stock Du Jour (SMH) & Random Observations
• 17: Unstable, Unbalanced, Uncoordinated, Unsustainable
• 17: A Price is a Complex Object
• 17: Stock Du Jour (MMM) & Random Observations
• 16: $20 Reward for Solving my Image Problem
• 15: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — July 13, 2007
• 14: Stock Du Jour (PAYX) & Random Observations
• 13: Stock Du Jour (RIO) & Random Observations
• 12: Stock Du Jour (REDF) & Random Observations
• 11: It’s Not Inflation, It’s Only a Change in “Relative Prices”
• 11: Middling Dull Pieces of Utterly Unreal and Mechanical Fiction
• 11: Chuck “Repeat Lunch Meal” Liddell
• 11: Stock Du Jour (SHLD) & Random Observations
• 10: Check, Please! (#’s 2 and 3 in a Series)
• 10: Stock Du Jour (PBW) & Random Observations
• 09: Captive Funds Cause Bubbles
• 09: Miraculous Year
• 08: Pour Pimm’s Properly
• 07: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — July 6, 2007
• 07: Stock Du Jour (COST) & Random Observations
• 06: China A-Share Turnover Pointing to More Weakness Ahead?
• 06: Complete Record of Bowel Movements (with Occasional Commentary)
• 06: Stock Du Jour (AAPL) & Random Observations
• 04: Stock Du Jour (FSLR) & Random Observations
• 04: Would You Be Open To Selling Your Soul?
• 04: Daily Trend Change in CITIC Securities
• 03: Race Is Not a Factor on Fear Factor?
• 03: How Online Video Can Be Monetized
• 03: Stock Du Jour (BIDU Again) & Random Observations
• 02: Freedom of Information
• 02: There Are No Gentlemen in a Strip Club

June 2007

• 30: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — June 29, 2007
• 30: Stock Du Jour (RIMM) & Random Observations
• 30: FX Information Platform
• 29: Lucky and Nimble (and Willing to Take a Risk)
• 29: Stock Du Jour (LLNW) & Random Observations
• 28: Abandoned Book: Every Dead Thing, by John Connolly
• 28: Favorite Lines from The Little Sister
• 28: No Stock Du Jour But Some Random Observations
• 27: Willeford Was Truly One of the Great Ones
• 27: Stock Du Jour (SLV) & Random Observations
• 26: Disturbing the Harmonious Society
• 26: Top 25 Highest Paying Jobs
• 26: Stock Du Jour (BX) & Random Observations
• 24: Son of Sam
• 24: The Homebuilder Retailer Disconnect
• 24: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — June 22, 2007
• 23: Stock Du Jour (SBUX) & Random Observations
• 22: Stock Du Jour (HOKU) & Random Observations
• 22: 15 Ideas Portfolio Update (3)
• 21: Cinders and Ashes!
• 21: Stock Du Jour (SRS) & Random Observations
• 20: Best Served Cold
• 20: Pragmatism Over Partisanship, Ideas Over Ideology
• 20: Stock Du Jour (YHOO) & Random Observations
• 20: Headline Juxtaposition
• 19: Ma.gnolia is Del.icio.us for Chicks
• 19: Stock Du Jour (BIDU) & Random Observations
• 16: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — June 15, 2007
• 16: Stock Du Jour (EWZ) & Random Observations
• 15: Check, Please!
• 15: The Positive Impact of My Foot Kicking Your Ass
• 15: Stock Du Jour (FXI) & Random Observations
• 14: Ready, Set, Go!
• 14: A Less Cretinous Rhetoric
• 14: Stock Du Jour (FXY) & Random Observations
• 13: Will Wahaha Get the Last Laugh?
• 13: Stock Du Jour (TIP) & Random Observations
• 12: Paradise Poker Tournament Schedule
• 12: Addicted to Popcorn
• 12: Home Run in Heelys
• 12: Stock Du Jour (CROX) & Random Observations
• 11: People Feel the Need to Justify Themselves
• 10: Nice and Boring and Immensely Profitable
• 10: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — June 8, 2007
• 10: Thai Baht: Then and Now
• 09: TGIF
• 09: Stock Du Jour (XRX) & Random Observations
• 08: Stock Du Jour (TLT) & Random Observations
• 07: They Probably Don’t Think about the Consequences at All
• 07: How Not to Shuffle a Virtual Deck of Cards
• 07: Stock Du Jour (PNRA) & Random Observations
• 06: Super Bubble Intact
• 06: Stock Du Jour (GOOG) & Random Observations
• 05: Dangerous Men Who Will Lie about Almost Anyone or Anything
• 05: Yet Another Root Canal
• 05: Energy ETF Roundup & Random Observations
• 04: Pigs Get Slaughtered
• 02: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — June 1, 2007
• 02: Regional Banks Stink: I’m a Buyer
• 02: Yet Another Reason to Remain Short the USD
• 01: Pre-Open Comments: Friday, June 1
• 01: Stock Du Jour (CIEN) & Random Observations

May 2007

• 31: A Look at the Break in the Shanghai Market
• 31: Extracting Knowledge from Unstructured Data Sources
• 31: Problem Solving at the Chinese DMV
• 31: The Pleasure of Supra-gingival Irrigation
• 31: The Dearth of Investable Assets in China
• 31: Stock Du Jour (NOVC) & Random Observations
• 30: Satisfying Our Hunger for Spectacle
• 30: New Interface at Paradise Poker
• 30: Stock Du Jour (AV) & Random Observations
• 29: Congratulations, You Just Got Stopped Out for a Loss
• 29: Pre-Open Comments: Monday, May 29
• 28: 11,000 Planes in the Sky and Only 100 Good Pilots
• 26: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — May 25, 2007
• 26: Stock Du Jour (VRGY) & Random Observations
• 26: Shanghai A-Share Turnover: Historical Perspective
• 25: Global Value Traded: Asia-Pacific
• 25: Avoiding Outcome Bias
• 25: Props and Malaprops
• 25: Don’t Count Old Media Out
• 25: Stock Du Jour (XLU) & Random Observations
• 24: Pre-Open Comments: Thursday, May 24
• 24: It’s Interesting How History Is Manufactured
• 24: Numerology as Basic Trading Strategy in China
• 24: Stock Du Jour (CYPB) & Random Observations
• 23: Pre-Open Comments: Wednesday, May 23
• 23: And All I Got Was a Lousy Caricature
• 23: Stock Du Jour (SNE) & Random Observations
• 22: I Hear a Beat, How Sweet!
• 22: Stock Du Jour (AMZN - yet again) & Random Observations
• 22: 15 Ideas Portfolio Update (2)
• 21: Just Three Stories
• 19: Ways To Take a Leveraged Short Position on China
• 19: Stock Du Jour (SCHW) & Random Observations
• 18: Stock Du Jour (DUSA) & Random Observations
• 18: Further Improve Investor Education and Strengthen Market Supervision
• 17: CITIC Securities and the Manic Manicurists
• 17: 1299cc, 4-stroke, four-cylinder, liquid-cooled, DOHC, 16-valve
• 17: Stock Du Jour (CPWR) & Random Observations
• 16: Public Reaction to Exorbitant Tolls Has Not Been Joyous
• 16: Stock Du Jour (WINN) & Random Observations
• 15: Stock Du Jour (WFMI - again) & Random Observations
• 14: Shenzhen Composite Index - On Balance Volume
• 14: The Scarcity of Mispricing Opportunities
• 14: Standard Contract Terms
• 14: A Brilliant Product Poorly Managed
• 14: Spreadsheet Column Width Indicator
• 12: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — May 11, 2007
• 12: Best & Worst Relative Performance — Week Ending May 11, 2007
• 12: Crazy Turnover in China’s Stock Markets
• 12: Stocks Du Jour (FXI, GXC) & Random Observations
• 11: Interactive Brokers Group IPO and Winner’s Curse
• 11: Stock Du Jour (WFMI) & Random Observations
• 10: Games Predominantly Subject to Chance
• 10: Stock Du Jour (DNDN) & Random Observations
• 09: Back from Xinjiang
• 03: May Day Holiday
• 03: Stock Du Jour (CMG) & Random Observations
• 02: Stocks Du Jour (DJ) & Random Observations
• 01: Stock Du Jour (IOTN) & Random Observations

April 2007

• 30: Chalco.com Triples on Shanghai Debut
• 29: Mad for Madras
• 29: For Dummies Considering Trading Options
• 29: The Name is Steinhardt, Michael Steinhardt
• 28: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — April 27, 2007
• 28: Best & Worst Relative Performance — Week Ending April 27, 2007
• 28: Looking for Another Bill Ruane
• 28: Stock Du Jour (BIDU) & Random Observations
• 27: Baltic Exchange Capesize Index Moves to New High
• 27: Stock Du Jour (AMZN + Long-term Perspective) & Random Observations
• 26: Louis Simpson: Unfancy Man with Fancy Returns
• 26: Stock Du Jour (AMZN) & Random Observations
• 25: When Elites Embrace Tabloid Values
• 25: Stock Du Jour (WHR) & Random Observations
• 24: Spurned, He Stabs Her Thrice
• 24: Stock Du Jour (CMI) & Random Observations
• 23: Turkish Lira — Steady Eddie for Now
• 23: Why Technical Analysts Don’t Deserve To Be Taken Seriously
• 22: Deploy a Little Capital, Get a Lot of Profit
• 21: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — April 20, 2007
• 21: Best & Worst Relative Performance — Week Ending April 20, 2007
• 21: Bubble in Belgrade
• 21: Stock Du Jour (EPCT) & Random Observations
• 21: 15 Ideas Portfolio Update
• 20: Both Greeks and Japanese Lie About Their Sex Lives
• 20: Jim Grant Calls Top #28,378
• 20: Stock Du Jour (EBAY) & Random Observations
• 19: CMBS BBB- Spread — Putting the Recent Spike in Perspective
• 19: Stock Du Jour (AVNR) & Random Observations
• 18: British Pound — Long-term Perspective
• 18: Stock Du Jour (YHOO) & Random Observations
• 17: Shenzhen Composite Index - Trading with the Trend (Part II)
• 17: Renminbi Revaluation Redux
• 17: Stock Du Jour (FMD) & Random Observations
• 16: Shenzhen Composite Index - Trading with the Trend
• 15: Growth at What Price?
• 14: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — April 13, 2007
• 14: Best & Worst Relative Performance — Week Ending April 13, 2007
• 14: Stock Du Jour (DYAX) & Random Observations
• 13: An Almost Perversely Dégagé Attitude
• 13: Strenuous Exercise and Oral Health
• 13: $1,500 a Month, Real-Time Not Included
• 13: When All Else Fails, There’s Always Delusion
• 13: Shanghai Composite Index — Taking the Long View
• 13: MedImmune Not QIDding Around
• 12: US Dollar Index - Bearish Any Way You Look At It
• 12: A Look at RIMM’s After-Hours Action
• 11: Energy SPDR at New High
• 10: Stocks Du Jour, China A-Share Fund, Buffett & Friends
• 09: Last Dozen Books Read (II)
• 08: Analysis at 80% Off the Going Rate
• 08: Hau, Ja Boss!
• 07: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — April 6, 2007
• 07: Best & Worst Relative Performance — Week Ending April 6, 2007
• 06: China’s Stock, Gold and Futures Exchanges
• 06: Precision Steal
• 05: Flavia of the Month
• 05: Perspectives: Independent Bank Corp. (IBCP)
• 04: Custom Sentiment Data
• 04: UAVV: Unusually Active, Very Volatile
• 03: Follow-up to Pre-open Comments (DNDN)
• 02: A Few Pre-open Comments
• 02: China’s New Petit-Bourgeoisie
• 02: Do Analysts Eat Their Own Cooking?

March 2007

• 31: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — March 30, 2007
• 31: Best & Worst Relative Performance — Week Ending March 30, 2007
• 30: One Button to Rule Them All
• 30: You’re Not in Nebraska Anymore, Warren
• 29: NUM_TRADES_RT
• 29: Major Life Events
• 29: Waiting for XHB to Come to Papa
• 28: Accelerated Generation Gaps
• 28: Sharing Bloomberg Worksheets
• 28: Mixing Memory and Desire
• 28: Beazer Blows
• 27: Boo-hoo, boo-hoo-hoo
• 26: A Pile of Poorly Underwritten Loans
• 24: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — March 23, 2007
• 24: Best & Worst Relative Performance — Week Ending March 23, 2007
• 24: Selected Excerpts from Nightmare in Pink
• 24: A Word about Quickies
• 23: Cellphones as Fashion Accessories
• 22: Step on Dee Gas
• 22: El Fogoncito - Beijing Branch
• 21: Rare Elevator Music by Roy Hargrove
• 20: Wealth and Greatness are Mere Trinkets of Frivolous Utility
• 20: More from Our Man in Harare
• 20: It’s All About the Benjamins
• 19: Mugabe Orders More Zeros Chopped Off
• 19: Seeking Alpha’s Great Leap Backwards
• 18: Gettin’ Off Bicycles… and Riding Roach
• 17: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — March 16, 2007
• 17: Best & Worst Relative Performance — Week Ending March 16, 2007
• 16: Pre-Open Comments: Friday, March 16
• 16: Beleaguring the Moron Longs
• 16: To Twitter or Not To Twitter
• 15: Passing Tests within Failure
• 15: Born at the Wrong Time
• 14: Creating Modern Spartans
• 14: A Sense of Belonging
• 14: Calling All Fashion Designers
• 14: Hard Work’s No Substitute for Talent
• 14: Discredited Home Lenders
• 13: Tip the Chairman and Get 15 Stock Ideas
• 13: Ripping Shareholders a NEW One
• 12: The Limitations of Google Translations
• 12: Blame the Homeless Mortgage Brokers
• 12: Studying Mr. Kirk’s Trades in Detail (#7 in a Series)
• 12: Sino-American Symbiosis: Chimerica
• 11: Studying Mr. Kirk’s Trades in Detail (#6 in a Series)
• 10: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — March 9, 2007
• 10: Best & Worst Relative Performance — Week Ending March 9, 2007
• 10: Studying Mr. Kirk’s Trades in Detail (#5 in a Series)
• 09: Typical Conversation with a Beijing Cabbie
• 09: Nothing to Ring Home About
• 09: Studying Mr. Kirk’s Trades in Detail (#4 in a Series)
• 08: Studying Mr. Kirk’s Trades in Detail (#3 in a Series)
• 08: Random Thoughts about Night at the Museum
• 08: Studying Mr. Kirk’s Trades in Detail (#2 in a Series)
• 07: Studying Mr. Kirk’s Trades in Detail
• 06: Notable New Lows
• 05: Market Leader in Subprime, Alt A, and Option ARM Loans
• 04: Market Sentiment — Week Ending March 2, 2007
• 03: Maoxian’s Top Ten Links — March 2, 2007
• 03: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — March 2, 2007
• 03: Best & Worst Relative Performance — Week Ending March 2, 2007
• 02: Warren Buffett’s 2006 Letter To Berkshire Shareholders
• 02: I’ve Owned Amgen for Seven Years…
• 01: When Index Calculations Lag
• 01: A Silly Boomer’s Thoughts on Negative Carry
• 01: Saving Executables as Drafts in Gmail

February 2007

• 28: The Rout: 10 Intraday Charts
• 27: Daisy, Daisy, Give Me Your Answer True
• 26: Yahoo’s Plans for Carrying More Financial Blogs?
• 26: A Knight Without Armor in a Savage Land
• 26: Random Thoughts about Casino Royale
• 24: Selected Excerpts from The Quick Red Fox (Part II)
• 24: Best & Worst Relative Performance — Week Ending February 23, 2007
• 24: Baby T at Two
• 24: All Fusion Abruptly Stops: NovaStar Implodes
• 21: Adding 150 Basis Points to Top Line Growth
• 17: Maoxian’s Top Ten Links — February 16, 2007
• 17: Best & Worst Relative Performance — Week Ending February 16, 2007
• 17: FIG Flags
• 17: ETF to Watch — CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
• 16: STIKFAS Kicks Ass
• 10: Maoxian’s Top Ten Links — February 9, 2007
• 10: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — February 9, 2007
• 10: Best & Worst Relative Performance — Week Ending February 9, 2007
• 10: Nothing NEW about High-Risk Lending
• 10: Eight Golden Rules for Shoe Care
• 08: When Value Investors Stray from their Circle of Competence
• 06: Another Great Disconnect: Southern Copper Still Going North
• 05: Domain Name Madness
• 05: My Firefox Extensions
• 05: A Hopeless Financial Morass?
• 04: Maoxian’s Top Ten Links — February 2, 2007
• 03: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — February 2, 2007
• 03: Best & Worst Relative Performance — Week Ending February 2, 2007
• 02: Alliterative Hoberman
• 02: Vanguard’s VWO: A Cheaper Way to Get Emerging Markets Exposure
• 01: The F*ckrs at Flickr
• 01: Last Dozen Books Read (I)

January 2007

• 31: The True Pecking Order of Stock Market Blogs
• 31: What It Will Look Like When the Chinese Stock Bubble Bursts
• 30: No Margin, No Problem
• 29: UBS Securities’ Beijing Office to Open Soon
• 29: Discount Airlines Based in Southeast Asia
• 29: The Net Present Value of Expected Future Cash Flows
• 27: Maoxian’s Top Ten Links — January 26, 2007
• 27: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — January 26, 2007
• 27: Selected Excerpts from The Quick Red Fox (Part I)
• 27: Best & Worst Relative Performance — One Week Ending January 26, 2007
• 26: Long Bond Moves to New Relative Low
• 26: How Do You Say Textbook Fibonacci Retracement in Chinese?
• 25: Broad Based Buying
• 24: The Importance of Monitoring Oil Intraday
• 23: Altucher’s Sage Investment Advice
• 23: The Great Caterpillar - FXI Disconnect
• 21: Maoxian’s Top Ten Links — January 19, 2007
• 20: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — January 19, 2007
• 20: Best & Worst Relative Performance — One Week Ending January 19, 2007
• 20: Capstone Shareholders’ Rocky Ride and Other Market Observations
• 20: But Is It Visually Stunning?
• 19: Consumers Unaffected by So-Called Housing Bust, and Other Market Observations
• 18: Our Dimmed Passion for Liberty
• 18: Intel Still Sucks After All These Years, and Other Market Observations
• 17: Using ETFs to Trade the Price of Oil
• 14: Maoxian’s Top Ten Links — January 12, 2007
• 14: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — January 12, 2007
• 14: Best & Worst Relative Performance — One Week Ending January 12, 2007
• 12: White Russian Recipe
• 12: The Bulls Are Not QIDding Around
• 10: What It Means To Be Human
• 10: Apple’s Intraday Action Following iPhone Announcement
• 09: Selected Excerpts from The Deep Blue Good-By
• 08: Internet Still Sucking from China
• 07: Oil Begins New Year with a Breakdown
• 06: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — January 5, 2007
• 06: Best & Worst Relative Performance — One Week Ending January 5, 2007
• 05: Fools Rushing in to Chinese Stocks
• 04: Convergence of Earnings Quality?
• 04: Pashupatina Necklaces
• 03: Random Notes After Returning from the US

December 2006

• 30: 2006 Returns for Selected Vanguard Funds
• 15: Maoxian’s Top Ten Links — December 15, 2006
• 15: Notable New Highs — December 14, 2006
• 14: 90 Million Suckers Have Put $9 Trillion into Mutual Funds
• 14: Notable New Highs — December 13, 2006
• 13: Notable New Highs — December 12, 2006
• 12: Notable New Highs — December 11, 2006
• 11: The World’s Biggest Vendor-Financing Scheme
• 09: Maoxian’s Top Ten Links — December 8, 2006
• 09: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — December 8, 2006
• 09: Best & Worst Relative Performance — One Week Ending December 8, 2006
• 09: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending December 8, 2006
• 09: Subprime Mortgage Lenders’ Submerging Share Prices
• 09: Notable New Highs — December 8, 2006
• 08: Reforming Corporate Governance is the Ultimate Impossible Dream
• 08: Notable New Highs — December 7, 2006
• 07: Are You Sure You Want to Fold?
• 07: Notable New Highs — December 6, 2006
• 06: IP Addresses Per Capita
• 06: Notable New Highs — December 5, 2006
• 05: New Small-Cap High Relatively Unimpressive
• 05: Notable New Highs — December 4, 2006
• 04: Bob Olstein’s Wordy Letters to Management
• 03: Only Idiots Talk about “Catalysts”
• 03: Maoxian’s Top Ten Links — December 1, 2006
• 02: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — December 1, 2006
• 02: Best & Worst Relative Performance — One Week Ending December 1, 2006
• 02: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending December 1, 2006
• 02: Notable New Highs — December 1, 2006
• 01: Not a Fan of Long-Windedness
• 01: Crazy Play Du Jour — Xenonics (XNN)
• 01: Notable New Highs — November 30, 2006

November 2006

• 30: Target Market: China’s Little Emperors
• 30: Notable New Highs — November 29, 2006
• 29: Slip Sliding Away
• 29: Notable New Highs — November 28, 2006
• 28: Notable New Highs — November 27, 2006
• 25: Maoxian’s Top Ten Links — November 24, 2006
• 25: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — November 24, 2006
• 25: Best & Worst Relative Performance — Week Ending November 24, 2006
• 25: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending November 24, 2006
• 25: Notable New Highs — November 24, 2006
• 23: Kenny Rogers — Water & Bridges
• 23: Google’s Dizzying Climb Above $5.00
• 23: Notable New Highs — November 22, 2006
• 22: Notable New Highs — November 21, 2006
• 21: Notable New Highs — November 20, 2006
• 20: Ever Searching for the Elusive Love, Joy, and Hope
• 19: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — November 17, 2006
• 18: Maoxian’s Top Ten Links — November 17, 2006
• 18: Best & Worst Relative Performance — One Week Ending November 17, 2006
• 18: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending November 17, 2006
• 18: Notable New Highs — November 17, 2006
• 17: Notable New Highs — November 16, 2006
• 16: Notable New Highs — November 15, 2006
• 15: Get Rid of Institutional Mass-Production Schools
• 15: Listen to the Communist Party: Buy Stocks!
• 15: The Best Traders Are Often Skilled Chess Players
• 15: Notable New Highs — November 14, 2006
• 14: Notable New Highs — November 13, 2006
• 13: Options Backdaters Burn Stakeholders*
• 13: Labyrinthine Code and Fickle, Bureaucratic Hydra
• 12: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — November 10, 2006
• 12: Best & Worst Relative Performance — One Week Ending November 10, 2006
• 12: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending November 10, 2006
• 11: One Useful Precept About Bribing People
• 11: Notable New Highs — November 10, 2006
• 10: Power to the People
• 10: Sacha Baron Cohen’s Bullying Nihilism
• 10: Notable New Highs — November 9, 2006
• 09: China Provides a Wake Up Call for the World
• 09: UltraShort Q’s Update
• 09: Notable New Highs — November 8, 2006
• 09: Republican Loss of Control in Senate a Surprise
• 08: Men Need Deep Emotional Connections with Other Men, Not Just Their Wives
• 08: Notable New Highs — November 7, 2006
• 07: Notable New Highs — November 6, 2006
• 06: My Money Blog Contest
• 05: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — November 3, 2006
• 05: Best & Worst Relative Performance — One Week Ending November 3, 2006
• 05: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending November 3, 2006
• 04: A Look at WFMI’s After-Hours Action
• 04: Notable New Highs — November 3, 2006
• 03: The 30% Net Margins at Microsoft Are a Great Big Cake in the Rain
• 03: Banking with Fellow Customers at HSBC’s Beijing Branch
• 03: Notable New Highs — November 2, 2006
• 02: Net Debit in Plain English
• 02: Notable New Highs — November 1, 2006
• 01: Play from Your Heart, Not from Your Mind
• 01: Notable New Highs — October 31, 2006

October 2006

• 31: From the Department of Duh!
• 31: The Tyranny of Compounding Costs
• 31: Throw the Bums Out
• 31: Notable New Highs — October 30, 2006
• 30: Q: What’s Your Edge? A: I’m a Long-Term Investor
• 29: Decoding Dodge & Cox Doubletalk
• 29: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — October 27, 2006
• 29: Best & Worst Relative Relative Performance — One Week Ending October 27, 2006
• 29: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending October 27, 2006
• 28: Where I Fit on the Political Map
• 28: Notable New Highs — October 27, 2006
• 27: Forecasting Changes In the State of Long-Term Expectation
• 27: The US-Based Casino and State Lottery Protection Act
• 27: Notable New Highs — October 26 2006
• 26: Notable New Highs — October 25, 2006
• 25: The Return of the Concubine
• 25: It Takes Courage to Buy Undervalued Assets
• 25: Notable New Highs — October 24, 2006
• 24: Notable New Highs — October 23, 2006
• 23: In Need of Some Interface Time
• 23: Cloning the American Consumer
• 23: Not Surprising to Those Who Recognize Sentiment as a Contrary Indicator
• 23: Best & Worst Relative Performance — One Week Ending October 20, 2006
• 21: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending October 20, 2006
• 21: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — October 20, 2006
• 21: Notable New Highs — October 20, 2006
• 20: A Look at GOOG’s After-Hours Action
• 20: Notable New Highs — October 19, 2006
• 19: Notable New Highs — October 18, 2006
• 18: The Most Important Quality of a Trader: A Willingness to Take Crazy Risks with His Bar Mitzvah Money
• 18: Notable New Highs — October 17, 2006
• 18: WallStrip Launches
• 17: The Wisdom of Calvin Trillin
• 17: Missing Poppy
• 17: 83-Year-Old Sumner Redstone’s Eyes Are Not O’ Th’ Best
• 17: Notable New Highs — October 16, 2006
• 16: Best & Worst Relative Performance — One Week Ending October 13, 2006
• 15: Notable New Highs — October 13, 2006
• 14: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending October 13, 2006
• 13: Notable New Highs — October 12, 2006
• 13: Fabulous Lego Ice Cube Tray
• 12: Never Eat Directly from a Package
• 12: Media General in Full Retreat
• 12: Notable New Highs — October 11, 2006
• 11: Yahoo! Crushed by Google Since Day One
• 11: Notable New Highs — October 10, 2006
• 10: Notable New Highs — October 9, 2006
• 08: David Swensen Tells It Like It Is
• 08: The Beginning of the End of the American Republic
• 08: Newspapers Take Only Tiny and Confused Steps—Mostly Backwards
• 08: The Wisdom of Richard Aster
• 08: Best & Worst Relative Performance — One Week Ending October 6, 2006
• 07: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — October 6, 2006
• 07: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending October 6, 2006
• 07: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending October 6, 2006
• 07: Notable New Highs — October 6, 2006
• 06: Notable New Highs — October 5, 2006
• 01: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — September 29, 2006
• 01: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending September 29, 2006
• 01: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending September 29, 2006
• 01: Best & Worst Relative Performance — One Week Ending September 29, 2006

September 2006

• 30: Six Keys to Running Successful Meetings
• 30: Another Impossible to Catch RIMM Shot
• 30: Notable New Highs — September 29, 2006
• 29: DIVX for Dummies
• 29: Notable New Highs — September 28, 2006
• 28: A Look at RHAT’s After-Hours Action
• 28: Notable New Highs — September 27, 2006
• 27: Bet the Front-End of the Curve
• 27: Notable New Highs — September 26, 2006
• 26: The Difference Between Scepticism and Cynicism
• 26: Keeping an Eagle Eye on the Broad Tape and the Importance of the Scratch
• 26: Notable New Highs — September 25, 2006
• 25: A Collision of Rising Affluence and China’s One-Child Policy
• 25: The Idiocy of Locking Up Content and a $12 Limit Order for NYT
• 24: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending September 22, 2006
• 24: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending September 22, 2006
• 24: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — September 22, 2006
• 23: Best & Worst Relative Performance — One Week Ending September 22, 2006
• 23: Notable New Highs — September 22, 2006
• 22: What Is the Best Investment Advice You Ever Heard?
• 22: Trend in Long Bond Yield Remains Down
• 22: Notable New Highs — September 21, 2006
• 21: Value Guy Cutting Losses in Old Media Investments
• 21: The Firming of the Software Sector
• 21: Notable New Highs — September 20, 2006
• 20: A Close Look at YHOO’s Collapse
• 20: Notable New Highs — September 19, 2006
• 19: Poker Teaches One How To Take Risks
• 19: A Strong Likelihood that Investors Will Not Receive Squat
• 19: Notable New Highs — September 18, 2006
• 18: Market Sentiment, Mixed Signals, and “Ass-perception”
• 17: Best & Worst Relative Performance — One Week Ending September 15, 2006
• 17: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending September 15, 2006
• 17: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending September 15, 2006
• 16: The Delicious Linkroll and a Paucity of Posts
• 16: Notable New Highs — September 15, 2006
• 15: Notable New Highs — September 14, 2006
• 14: Notable New Highs — September 13, 2006
• 13: David (Jackson) Versus Goliath
• 13: Notable New Highs — September 12, 2006
• 12: CRB Index Underperformance and Quacking Ducks
• 12: Notable New Highs — September 11, 2006
• 11: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of September 11, 2006
• 11: Reducing Exposure to Energies
• 11: Best & Worst Relative Performance — One Week Ending September 8, 2006
• 11: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending September 8, 2006
• 11: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending September 8, 2006
• 10: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — September 8, 2006
• 09: Notable New Highs — September 8, 2006
• 08: Notable New Highs — September 7, 2006
• 07: Crude Oil Trends Lower Supporting Broad Market
• 07: Notable New Highs — September 6, 2006
• 06: Notable New Highs — September 5, 2006
• 05: Credit Derivative Index Signaling a Return to Complacency
• 05: S&P 500 Should Pass May High Given Bearish Sentiment
• 05: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of September 4, 2006
• 03: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — September 1, 2006
• 03: Best & Worst Relative Performance — Four Weeks Ending Sep. 1, 2006
• 03: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending September 1, 2006
• 03: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending September 1, 2006
• 02: Notable New Highs — September 1, 2006
• 01: Notable New Highs — August 31, 2006

August 2006

• 31: The Boomers Will Sell Their Assets to Whom and at What Price?
• 31: Reacting to Each News Release Like Pavlov’s Dogs
• 31: Notable New Highs — August 30, 2006
• 30: Buying a Truckload of Pigs
• 30: Belle & Sebastian — Funny Little Frog
• 30: ETF to Watch — Rydex Russell Top 50 (XLG)
• 30: Notable New Highs — August 29, 2006
• 29: Optimistic Initial Valuations
• 29: Notable New Highs — August 28, 2006
• 29: T for Terrible
• 29: A Nickel for Your Thoughts
• 28: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of August 28, 2006
• 28: Bling!
• 28: Best & Worst Relative Performance — One Week Ending August 25, 2006
• 27: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending August 25, 2006
• 27: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending August 25, 2006
• 26: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — August 25, 2006
• 26: Notable New Highs — August 25, 2006
• 25: Chico’s Outlook Turns a Little Bleak-o
• 25: Notable New Highs — August 24, 2006
• 24: Remembering “Have the Homebuilders Peaked?”
• 24: Notable New Highs — August 23, 2006
• 23: Blogs as Guides in a Content-Saturated World
• 23: AMD Sets Up for Dummies
• 23: Notable New Highs — August 22, 2006
• 22: Letting the Stats Speak for Themselves
• 22: Notable New Highs — August 21, 2006
• 20: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending August 18, 2006
• 20: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending August 18, 2006
• 20: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of August 21, 2006
• 20: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — August 18, 2006
• 19: Adding Delicious Bookmarks to the Sidebar
• 19: Best and Worst One Week Relative Performance
• 19: Notable New Highs — August 18, 2006
• 19: Creating Positive Externality
• 19: You Can’t Overheat by Investing in Basic Infrastructure
• 18: The Go! Team — The Wrath of Mikey
• 18: Stock to Watch — ICT Group (ICTG)
• 18: Notable New Highs — August 17, 2006
• 18: A Haven for Biomedical Freedom
• 18: Everybody Wants to be Famous in Some Way
• 17: Your 13-Week T-Bill Yield on Drugs
• 17: Notable New Highs — August 16, 2006
• 17: A Desperate Man in a Dirty Sport?
• 17: Saving Even Bits and Pieces Is an Important Leap
• 17: Beijing’s Best-Kept Culinary Secret
• 16: UltraShort Q’s Come Front and Center
• 16: FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ETF Moves to New Relative High
• 16: Notable New Highs — August 15, 2006
• 15: Foreign Bank Competition and China’s “National Interest”
• 15: Cruiseliner Tandem
• 15: Notable New Highs — August 14, 2006
• 15: Gong Xin — Attacking the Heart
• 15: An Extraordinarily Compelling Reason to Watch Stock Charts
• 13: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of August 14, 2006
• 13: Adding to the Strong During Bouts of Weakness
• 13: The Power of End-of-Quarter Markups
• 13: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending August 11, 2006
• 13: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending August 11, 2006
• 13: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — August 11, 2006
• 12: Twice as Cheap at Half Book Value
• 12: Why HOLDRS Kind of Suck
• 12: Buying Stocks in Mainland China Through Fidelity?
• 12: Going All-in and Then Into an Act
• 12: Notable New Highs — August 11, 2006
• 12: The Forbidding City
• 12: Feds Succeed in Killing BetOnSports
• 12: The Convergence of Banking and Technology
• 11: Notable New Highs — August 10, 2006
• 10: The End of Whole Foods’ Fabulous Run, or, Pass the Mac & Cheese Please
• 10: Notable New Highs — August 9, 2006
• 10: The Major Drawback of Not Paying some Mutual Fund Schmuck 150 BPs a Year
• 10: Investing in Ill-conceived Projects
• 09: Another Reason MSFT is No Bargain
• 09: Revistaing Vista Gold
• 09: Notable New Highs — August 8, 2006
• 09: The Best American TV Show Transcription Service in the World
• 08: Banks Without Branches
• 08: HANS Finally Cracks But No Joy in Dummyville
• 08: Notable New Highs — August 7, 2006
• 08: Establishing and Maintaining Eye Contact
• 08: The Latest (and Last?) in a Line of Global Tongues
• 08: The Hotter It Gets, The More Energy We Burn
• 07: Buffett Cuts Dollar Short Just As Slide Set to Resume
• 07: Perfectly Imperfect Timing
• 07: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of August 7, 2006
• 07: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending August 4, 2006
• 07: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending August 4, 2006
• 06: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — August 4, 2006
• 05: Notable New Highs — August 4, 2006
• 05: Soothing Local Fears
• 04: Morgan Stanley: From Blah to Crap
• 04: Foolishly Fighting an Asymmetrical War
• 04: Notable New Highs — August 3, 2006
• 04: China Has an Economy Run by Foreigners
• 04: Slow and Faulty
• 03: Answering the Clue Phone
• 03: Reader’s “Die”-gest
• 03: Notable New Highs — August 2, 2006
• 02: Divining the Long-run “Equilibrium” Value of the Renminbi-Dollar Exchange Rate
• 02: Dynasty, First Hedge Fund Based in Mainland China, Liquidates
• 02: The Mystery of the Missing Men
• 02: Middle America’s New Diet
• 02: Notable New Highs — August 1, 2006
• 01: A Housing Market on the Florida Rocks
• 01: Notable New Highs — July 31, 2006

July 2006

• 31: If You Don’t Invest In U.S. Bonds, What Do You Invest In?
• 31: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of July 31, 2006
• 31: It Helps to be a Bit of a Shit
• 31: Partisan Passions
• 31: A Culture of Ambivalence and Allusion
• 30: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending July 28, 2006
• 30: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending July 28, 2006
• 29: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — July 28, 2006
• 29: Another Reason To Be Long the Renminbi
• 29: Notable New Highs — July 28, 2006
• 28: Crummy, Pointless, and Brain-dead
• 28: June/July 2006: a Serious Inflection Point
• 28: Transports Ugly But Don’t Panic… Yet
• 28: Stock to Watch — Tyler Technologies (TYL)
• 28: Notable New Highs — July 27, 2006
• 27: A Duty to Discipline
• 27: ETF to Watch — iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend (DVY)
• 27: Notable New Highs — July 26, 2006
• 27: Avoiding Conventional Nonsense
• 26: Increasing the Likelihood of Approval
• 26: Strongest Consumer Staples Stocks
• 26: A Misguided Exercise in Hubris, Incompetence and Folly
• 26: Cultural Authoritarianism
• 26: Nostalgia for Fat Pang
• 26: Notable New Highs — July 25, 2006
• 25: Stock to Watch — M&T Bank (MTB)
• 25: Notable New Highs — July 24, 2006
• 24: Top Symbols
• 24: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of July 24, 2006
• 23: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending July 21, 2006
• 23: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending July 21, 2006
• 22: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — July 21, 2006
• 22: Playing Defense in the Utilities SPDR
• 22: Not All Fixed Assets Are Created Equal
• 22: Notable New Highs — July 21, 2006
• 21: Bloated Running Times
• 21: ETF to Watch — UltraShort QQQ (QID)
• 21: Notable New Highs — July 20, 2006
• 20: Wally Likes DELL
• 20: Holding the Bag in the Internet HOLDR
• 20: Stock to Watch — Wolverine World Wide (WWW)
• 20: Notable New Highs — July 19, 2006
• 20: Cashing a $500 Check Costs $50
• 19: Stock to Watch — Jackson Hewitt Tax Service (JTX)
• 19: Notable New Highs — July 18, 2006
• 19: Paying Good Money To See Bad Movies
• 19: A Country Awash in Money
• 18: The Wisdom of Puggy Pearson
• 18: A Shot Across the Bow of Complacency
• 18: Notable New Highs — July 17, 2006
• 17: Hold Fast to Your Energy Stocks
• 17: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of July 17, 2006
• 17: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending July 14, 2006
• 17: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending July 14, 2006
• 15: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — July 14, 2006
• 15: Notable New Highs — July 14, 2006
• 14: Morcheeba — Lighten Up
• 14: Oh Crud
• 14: All of Our Pop Icons Look Like Porn Stars
• 14: When Milk Was Pure and Life Was Guileless
• 14: Notable New Highs — July 13, 2006
• 13: True Believers of the Homebuilder Stocks Getting Murdered
• 13: Terrorizing Bombay’s Elite
• 13: Notable New Highs — July 12, 2006
• 12: The Benevolent Force of Automation
• 12: Nasdaq 100 Index: Then and Now
• 12: Demolishing What Remains of Old Beijing
• 12: Notable New Highs — July 11, 2006
• 11: Nothing Can Save the US Dollar
• 11: Stocks Are One of the Best Inflation Hedges
• 11: Plan, Prepare, Execute, and Assess
• 11: Stock to Watch — ONEOK (OKE)
• 11: Notable New Highs — July 10, 2006
• 10: Limp as a Wet Willy
• 10: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending July 7, 2006
• 10: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending July 7, 2006
• 09: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of July 10, 2006
• 08: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — July 7,2006
• 08: Trend Following is an Unnatural Act
• 08: Notable New Highs — July 7, 2006
• 07: Natalie Merchant — One Fine Day
• 07: Commodities-Based Exchange-Traded Notes
• 07: Notable New Highs — July 6, 2006
• 07: Containing the Frustration and Rage of Millions of Have-Nots
• 06: Timeless Bromides from the Middle Kingdom
• 06: The Future(s) of ETFs
• 06: Stock to Watch — Avalonbay Communities (AVB)
• 06: Notable New Highs — July 5, 2006
• 06: Applying Scientific Methods to Finance-Related Problems
• 06: Railway to Tibet: Miraculous or Devastating?
• 06: ETFs Versus Futures
• 04: REITs Still Outperforming After All These Years
• 04: MaoXian.com’s Full-Text Feed
• 04: Living the Dream
• 04: The World Does Not Need More Blogs
• 04: Notable New Highs — July 3, 2006
• 03: Anything Worth Doing Is Worth Obsessing Over
• 03: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of July 3, 2006
• 03: Startling Sensations
• 01: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — June 30, 2006
• 01: Putting the Consumer Staples Outperformance in Perspective
• 01: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending June 30, 2006
• 01: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending June 30, 2006
• 01: Stock to Watch — Essex Property Trust (ESS)
• 01: Notable New Highs — June 30, 2006

June 2006

• 30: Bureaucratese and the FOMC Statement
• 30: Not Forgotten in the Plenitude of Death
• 30: Stock to Watch — SL Green Realty (SLG)
• 30: Notable New Highs — June 29, 2006
• 29: Prices Retrace or Test — That Is All
• 29: Bloomberg.com’s New Color Scheme
• 29: Stock to Watch — Southern Union (SUG)
• 29: Notable New Highs — June 28, 2006
• 28: Blues Traveler
• 28: You Can’t Just Buy Breakouts and Hope for the Best
• 28: Notable New Highs — June 27, 2006
• 27: Lack of Correlation
• 27: Chinese Character Flashcards
• 27: The Power of Overlaying and Annotating Charts
• 27: Giving It Back
• 27: Working Efficiently in an Infinitely Diverting World
• 27: Notable New Highs — June 26, 2006
• 26: Niche Publications Getting Riche
• 26: Market Sentiment — Week Ending June 23, 2006
• 26: How To Write Good
• 25: Not Hot Money, But Maybe Dumb Money
• 25: Picky Eaters Are a Product of Non-Cooking Parents
• 25: Training the American Husband
• 25: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of June 26, 2006
• 25: A Lacquered Dud
• 25: Unintended Consequences of the Ethanol Boom
• 25: Conscious of Odds and Consequences
• 25: The Process Is Not Transparent
• 24: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending June 23, 2006
• 24: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending June 23, 2006
• 24: Mountains of Coal Waste
• 24: No Guidance, No Standards, No Rule of Law
• 24: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — June 23, 2006
• 24: Stock to Watch — Arkansas Best (ABFS)
• 24: Notable New Highs — June 23, 2006
• 23: Overeducated and Underemployed
• 23: Eight New ProShares Funds
• 23: Stock to Watch — Celgene (CELG)
• 23: Notable New Highs — June 22, 2006
• 22: Straying from Benchmarks
• 22: Stock to Watch — The Knot (KNOT)
• 22: Notable New Highs — June 21, 2006
• 22: Trading Paperbacks
• 22: Comic Books from the Federal Reserve
• 22: Uncommon Values Get Less Valuable as Prices Fall
• 22: Hindustan Petroleum, Sexy!
• 22: More Ads at Higher Rates for Fewer Readers
• 21: Gentle Persuasion
• 21: Chinese Renminbi Futures
• 21: Stock to Watch — OMI Corp. (OMM)
• 21: Notable New Highs — June 20, 2006
• 20: Real Backpackers Travel Alone
• 20: Revenue as Afterthought
• 20: American Buffalo Meets Gold Bear
• 20: Notable New Highs — June 19, 2006
• 19: Getting Technical
• 19: Spotting Contrarian Travel Opportunities
• 19: Calendar Added to Sidebar — Any Thoughts?
• 19: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of June 19, 2006
• 19: Trucking in Cash
• 18: I’m Thrilled: Sentiment at Worst Levels Since March 2003
• 18: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending June 16, 2006
• 18: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending June 16, 2006
• 18: Undermining a Monopoly
• 17: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — June 16, 2006
• 17: Stock to Watch — Memry (MRY)
• 17: Notable New Highs — June 16, 2006
• 16: The Best Investment Style: Lethargy Bordering on Sloth
• 16: Leader, Educator, Enforcer
• 16: Notable New Highs — June 15, 2006
• 15: Gravity Is Working On This Bubble
• 15: Excessive Credit Activity
• 15: Stock to Watch — Enersys (ENS)
• 15: Notable New Highs — June 14, 2006
• 14: Please Help Me Spend My Money
• 14: Loquat — There Is A Light That Never Goes Out
• 14: Imitation Pit Noise
• 14: Raising the Barriers to Entry in Search
• 14: Following the Hourly Trend in Gold
• 14: “The Price is Right” — An American Cultural Touchstone
• 14: Bright Flight
• 14: Notable New Highs — June 13, 2006
• 13: A Prairie Home Companion: Lumbering, Affected and Pointless
• 13: Of the People, By the People, For the People
• 13: Notable New Highs — June 12, 2006
• 12: Pledging to Pay Higher Prices
• 12: Edson Arantes do Nascimento, a.k.a. Pele
• 12: REITs Ignoring Rates
• 11: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of June 12, 2006
• 11: Why I Love Good Sports Writing
• 10: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending June 9, 2006
• 10: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending June 9, 2006
• 10: Hedgestock: Clean-Cut Guys Wearing Love Beads
• 10: Notable New Highs — June 9, 2006
• 09: Alexa Rankings
• 09: A New, Livelier Avenue for Propaganda
• 09: A Secular Change in Lending Practices?
• 09: Second- and Third-Order Thinking
• 09: Hammer Time and Heavy Volume
• 09: Notable New Highs — June 8, 2006
• 08: Valuable Ideas
• 08: Oil Services Top is Significant and Has Broad Implications
• 08: Notable New Highs — June 7, 2006
• 08: Movie Meritocracy
• 08: Tools and Techniques of the Trade
• 08: Rig for Stormy Weather
• 07: Sharing the Notable New Highs List
• 07: Stock to Watch — Live Nation (LYV)
• 07: Notable New Highs — June 6, 2006
• 06: Be Modest. Listen Well. Preach Little.
• 06: Stock to Watch — Mastercard (MA)
• 06: Notable New Highs — June 5, 2006
• 06: Tutor Time
• 06: The Magic of Paper and Thread and Glue
• 05: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of June 5, 2006
• 05: Replacing Human Interpreters of Raw Data Feeds
• 05: Trans-Boundary Pollution
• 03: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending June 2, 2006
• 03: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending June 2, 2006
• 03: A Hotbed of Digital Piracy
• 03: Notable New Highs — June 2, 2006
• 02: Stock to Watch — TXU (TXU)
• 02: Notable New Highs — June 1, 2006
• 01: Five Big Trends
• 01: Bulls Rejoice: The Little Guy is Piling into Puts
• 01: The Drawbacks of Unfettered Discussion
• 01: Stock to Watch — Plains All American Pipeline (PAA)
• 01: Notable New Highs — May 31, 2006

May 2006

• 31: Stock to Watch — Smith & Wesson (SWB)
• 31: Notable New Highs — May 30, 2006
• 30: The Derek Trucks Band — Songlines
• 30: Current Market Sentiment
• 30: The Prospect of a Paperless Movie Industry
• 30: Some Commie Broke My Jimi
• 29: You Never Know the Value of Liquidity Until You Need It and Don’t Have It
• 29: Performing Brain Surgery on a Mouse
• 29: No One Is Prepared to Invest in Reporting
• 28: Bureaucratic Gems
• 28: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of May 29, 2006
• 28: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending May 26, 2006
• 28: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending May 26, 2006
• 28: Strongest ETFs, One Week Relative Performance
• 27: How to Get Rich While Making Humdrum Returns
• 27: On Baidu and Barge Poles
• 27: Stock to Watch — Liquidity Services (LQDT)
• 27: Notable New Highs — May 26, 2006
• 26: A Bull Run in the Dark
• 26: Andy Xie, Master of Redundancies
• 26: Can You Commit to Those Parameters?
• 26: Stock to Watch — PepsiCo (PEP)
• 26: Notable New Highs — May 25, 2006
• 26: Interactive Data Falling Off a Cliff
• 26: Self-Evident, Spirit-Lowering Tripe
• 25: Measures of Precious Metals
• 25: Put It More Shortly
• 25: A More Tolerant, Fun-Loving Singapore
• 25: Stock to Watch — Spansion (SPSN)
• 25: Notable New Highs — May 24, 2006
• 24: Larry Williams Arrested on Tax Evasion Charges
• 24: Stock to Watch — Clean Harbors (CLHB)
• 24: Notable New Highs — May 23, 2006
• 23: Details of Vacation to Sanya, Hainan Island
• 23: Stock to Watch — Limited Brands (LTD)
• 23: Notable New Highs — May 22, 2006
• 22: Dodge & Cox Finding Opportunites in MegaCaps
• 22: A Deep-Thought Deprived Nation
• 22: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of May 22, 2006
• 22: You Can’t Take a “Hard Line” with an Oligopoly
• 22: Hong Kong Has Become the Memory of Mainland China
• 21: WAG: Gold at $450 in October 2006
• 21: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending May 19, 2006
• 21: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending May 19, 2006
• 20: Flight 93
• 20: Stock to Watch — Medical Properties Trust (MPW)
• 20: Notable New Highs — May 19, 2006
• 19: “Correcting” Property Market “Distortions”
• 19: Male-Driven Spaces
• 19: Stock to Watch — Advanced Environmental Recycling Technologies (AERTA)
• 19: Notable New Highs — May 18, 2006
• 18: More from Munger
• 18: Jiangxi Copper and the Importance of the New Highs List
• 18: Spike-for-Hire
• 18: Stock to Watch — Brady (BRC)
• 18: Notable New Highs — May 17, 2006
• 17: Why Emoticons Are So Important
• 17: Interest Rates Do Not Discipline a Financial System – Financial Crises Do
• 17: The Chinese Impact on World Tourism
• 17: Stock to Watch — FactSet Research Systems (FDS)
• 17: Notable New Highs — May 16, 2006
• 16: “Erroneous” Reports and “Misleading” Views
• 16: Stock to Watch — Brookdale Senior Living (BKD)
• 16: Notable New Highs — May 15, 2006
• 15: Hong Kong Also Has a Better Bar Scene
• 15: Good Local Managers Are As Precious As Diamonds
• 15: Zhejiang Expressway’s Sideways Shuffle
• 15: The Uselessness of the Citibank Panic/Euphoria Model
• 14: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of May 15, 2006
• 14: Taxation of Exchange-Traded Collectibles
• 13: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending May 12, 2006
• 13: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending May 12, 2006
• 13: The Literary Equivalent of a Tract-House Development
• 13: Notable New Highs — May 12, 2006
• 12: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of May 8, 2006
• 12: Trading with the Trend: US Dollar Index
• 12: ETF to Watch — iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
• 12: Stock to Watch — Jones Soda (JSDA)
• 12: Notable New Highs — May 11, 2006
• 11: Constructive Ambiguity
• 11: Google Trends
• 11: Treating Sticker Prices as a Starting Point for Negotiations
• 11: Stock to Watch — Birch Mountain Resources (BMD)
• 11: Notable New Highs — May 10, 2006
• 10: More Awful Circulation Numbers
• 10: In Particular But Not Without Limitation
• 10: How to Lose Several Hundred Million Dollars
• 10: Stock to Watch — Washington Group (WGII)
• 10: Notable New Highs — May 9, 2006
• 09: Game Theory Assumes Mistakes Will Not Be Made
• 09: Let the Winds of a Civilized Internet Blow
• 09: Stock to Watch — SunOpta (STKL)
• 09: Notable New Highs — May 8, 2006
• 08: Deliberate Practice
• 08: Smashing Big Media’s Cozy Terrarium
• 08: The Shangri-La Diet
• 08: Black Like a Duck’s Liver
• 07: Mourning the Death of the Inventor of Investment Broadcasting
• 07: You Can’t Buy What Is Popular and Do Well
• 07: Dow Jones Made a Horrible Mistake Locking Up WSJ.com
• 07: An Agile, Energetic Government?
• 07: Roach’s Remarkable Revision
• 06: Back from the Beach
• 06: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending May 5, 2006
• 06: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending May 5, 2006
• 06: Notable New Highs — May 5, 2006

April 2006

• 30: May Day Holiday
• 30: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of May 1, 2006
• 30: Beijing Property — Haves and Have-Nots
• 29: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending April 28, 2006
• 29: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending April 28, 2006
• 29: The US Dollar Resumes Its Slide
• 29: Notable New Highs — April 28, 2006
• 28: Hedge Fund Specializing in China Based in … Kansas
• 28: Financials Set to Outperform?
• 28: Hijacking an Entire Brand
• 28: ETF to Watch — Euro Currency Trust (FXE)
• 28: Stock to Watch — Belden CDT (BDC)
• 28: Notable New High — April 27, 2006
• 27: Inflate. Devalue. Tax.
• 27: Sensitive Dependence on Initial Conditions
• 27: Only Boneheads Pull Their Stops
• 27: ETF to Watch — MSCI Mexico (EWW)
• 27: Stock to Watch — CSG Systems (CSGS)
• 27: Notable New Highs — April 26, 2006
• 26: Stock to Watch — Chubb (CB)
• 26: Notable New Highs — April 25, 2006
• 25: Artful Noodles
• 25: Relief from Shaving Cream Hell
• 25: Popular Sentiment Growing Ever More Complacent
• 25: China’s Looming Talent Shortage
• 25: Disparate Propaganda Campaigns in Search of a Central Script
• 25: Stock to Watch — BankcorpSouth (BXS)
• 25: Notable New Highs — April 24, 2006
• 24: Stephen Roach’s “Newfound Optimism” and a Perfectly Picked Top
• 24: Measuring and Interpreting Economic Data in a Global Economy
• 24: Gasoline Price Approaching Inflation-Adjusted Record High
• 23: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending April 21, 2006
• 23: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending April 21, 2006
• 23: Buying Great Businesses at Reasonable Prices
• 22: Stock to Watch — Labor Ready (LRW)
• 22: Notable New Highs — April 21, 2006
• 21: The Wallet for People Who Hate Wallets
• 21: Old Style Upload Plug-in for WordPress
• 21: Stock to Watch — Healthcare Services Group (HCSG)
• 21: Notable New Highs — April 20, 2006
• 20: Chat Transcript: Using Relative Performance Charts
• 20: Stock to Watch — Accredited Lenders (LEND)
• 20: Notable New Highs — April 19, 2006
• 19: Buzzword Watch: Price Points and Value Propositions
• 19: Input-Driven Growth is Inevitably Limited
• 19: Dull Ruminations on Infidelity
• 19: From “Free Rider” to “Responsible Stakeholder”
• 19: Stock to Watch — Southern Copper (PCU)
• 19: Notable New Highs — April 18, 2006
• 18: Intraday Charts of ETFs Trading at New Highs
• 18: Stock to Watch — NAVTEQ (NVT)
• 18: Notable New Highs — April 17, 2006
• 18: Appreciating the Tastes of the Global Linguistic Soup
• 17: Going Against the Flow
• 17: Trashy Mags Circulation Contracting
• 17: Credit Ratings, Research and Analysis in China
• 17: Relative Strength Comparison: SPY vs EFA
• 16: Looking for Inflation in All the Wrong Places
• 16: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending April 14, 2006
• 16: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending April 14, 2006
• 16: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of April 17, 2006
• 15: A Jerry Bruckheimer Art Film
• 15: “Guaranteed” Profitable Return on Real Estate in the Long Term
• 15: A Rare, Geeky Form of Poetry
• 14: You Can’t Get There from Here
• 14: It’s Tough to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future
• 14: 100 Photocopies for Every Textbook Sold
• 14: ETF to Watch — United States Oil Fund (USO)
• 14: Stock to Watch — Threshold Pharmaceuticals (THLD)
• 14: Notable New Highs — April 13, 2006
• 13: Huge Country, Tiny Capital Market
• 13: Research Reports on China’s Real Estate Market
• 13: Recent Comments Plug-in for WordPress
• 13: Top Ten Highest-Paying Jobs
• 13: Stock to Watch — Circuit City Stores (CC)
• 13: Notable New Highs — April 12, 2006
• 12: On Beauty and Blinking
• 12: Technology, Talent, Tolerance
• 12: Humble Herbie
• 12: Stock to Watch — Providence Service (PRSC)
• 12: Notable New Highs — April 11, 2006
• 11: Stock to Watch — Vimicro Int’l (VIMC)
• 11: Notable New Highs — April 10, 2006
• 10: ETF to Watch — Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU)
• 10: Writing in Cold Bold
• 09: A Staggering Balancing Act
• 09: The Rolling Stones, Like the Communist Party, is a Relic from Another Era
• 09: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending April 7, 2006
• 09: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending April 7, 2006
• 09: Interesting Bits is Barron’s — Week of April 10, 2006
• 08: O2Diesel’s Wild Ride
• 08: Notable New Highs — April 7, 2006
• 07: The Gray Lady Is Waiting for Inevitable Oblivion
• 07: ETF to Watch — iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT)
• 07: Notable New Highs — April 6, 2006
• 06: What Trade Deficit?
• 06: Stock to Watch — Freescale Semiconductor (FSL)
• 06: Notable New Highs — April 5, 2006
• 05: But I Still Haven’t Visited MySpace.com
• 05: NYTimes.com Redesign
• 05: Notable New Highs — April 4, 2006
• 04: Stock to Watch — iPass (IPAS)
• 04: Notable New Highs — April 3, 2006
• 03: Promoting the Construction of New Capitalist Cities
• 03: Peg-Perego’s Aria Stroller
• 03: Keep Your Friends Close and Your Enemies Closer
• 02: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of April 3, 2006
• 02: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending March 31, 2006
• 02: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending March 31, 2006
• 01: The Beauty of Tamiya
• 01: Google’s AdSense Changing Lives in the Developing World
• 01: Analysts as Unquestioning Conduits for the Management Line
• 01: ETF to Watch — PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (PBW)
• 01: Notable New Highs — March 31, 2006

March 2006

• 31: Measurement Problems
• 31: WordPress Theme Browser
• 31: Metals Roundup
• 31: Notable New Highs — March 30, 2006
• 30: Writing in a Language “Understanded of the People”
• 30: Stock to Watch — Schnitzer Steel (SCHN)
• 30: Notable New Highs — March 29, 2006
• 30: Forfeiting Creativity in Pursuit of Profit
• 30: Fakery, Hucksterism, and Puffery
• 29: How I Use the CBOE Volatility Index
• 29: Transit Razed
• 29: Stock to Watch — Cosi (COSI)
• 29: Notable New Highs — March 28, 2006
• 28: Gasoline Prices Rise in Beijing
• 28: A Chaos of Psychic Connections
• 28: Buying ‘Em When They Ain’t
• 28: Stock to Watch — Air Methods (AIRM)
• 28: Notable New Highs — March 27, 2006
• 27: How I Use the ISE Sentiment Index
• 27: Traffic from TheStreet.com?
• 27: Hongkong’s Skyline the Greatest in the World
• 27: I Love Spam Karma 2
• 26: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of March 28, 2006
• 25: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending March 24, 2006
• 25: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending March 24, 2006
• 25: Stock to Watch — Denbury Resources (DNR)
• 25: Notable New Highs — March 24, 2006
• 25: A Genuine Great Leap Forward
• 24: The Anachronistic Banality of the Entire Conceit
• 24: Chat Transcript for March 23, 2006
• 24: Stock to Watch — Level 3 Communications (LVLT)
• 24: Notable New Highs — March 23, 2006
• 24: Families With Children From China
• 23: Killing 98% of Your Readership in One Easy Step
• 23: Stock to Watch — EDGAR Online (EDGR)
• 23: Notable New Highs — March 22, 2006
• 23: I Hated I Heart Huckabees
• 23: Breasts Count
• 22: On Permanent Politicians and Pigeons
• 22: Stock to Watch — ResMed (RMD)
• 22: Notable New Highs — March 21, 2006
• 21: Since When Is Two Years Long Term?
• 21: I Can’t Remember the Last Time I Read a Newspaper
• 21: Notable New Highs — March 20, 2006
• 21: Stock to Watch — PW Eagle (PWEI)
• 20: Chinese Companies Listed in the United States
• 20: Obscuring the True Meaning of “Made in China.”
• 20: The Ultimate Chinese Takeaway
• 20: Caterpillar Shipping Trucks Without Tires
• 19: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of March 20, 2006
• 19: Fearing for the MySpacing, YouTubing, Facebooking Masses
• 19: Sofia Coppola Can’t Act (and Neither Can Her Cousin Nicolas)
• 18: What’s Hee-appening?
• 18: ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending March 17, 2006
• 18: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending March 17, 2006
• 18: Stock to Watch — Clarcor (CLC)
• 18: Notable New Highs — March 17, 2006
• 17: Stock to Watch — Insteel Industries (IIIN)
• 17: Notable New Highs — March 16, 2006
• 16: It’s Hard for Abstract Nouns to Surrender
• 16: ETF to Watch — Materials SPDR (XLB)
• 16: Notable New Highs — March 15, 2006
• 15: Launched: July 1992, Circulation: 251,295
• 15: Jamba Juiced
• 15: Stock to Watch — Novavax (NVAX)
• 15: Notable New Highs — March 14, 2006
• 15: Minimizing the Information Onslaught
• 15: Inadvertently Launching a Thousand New Age Dreams
• 15: Colored Contact Lenses in China
• 14: Blogging is to Mainstream Media as Microbrewing is to Budweiser?
• 14: Degenerating into Bad Fellini
• 14: Stock to Watch — Weyerhaeuser (WY)
• 14: Notable New Highs — March 13, 2006
• 14: Paying a Dollar for 30 Cents
• 13: Two Annoying Things about WordPress
• 13: A Quick Cultural Observation
• 13: Obscenity Delivered with a Cosy Flirtatiousness
• 13: ETF Performance Table — Week Ending March 10, 2006
• 12: Political, Economic, Cultural and Moral Interests of China
• 11: Dow Jones US Real Estate Index Fund at All-Time High
• 11: Forgery, Fraud and Insider Trading
• 11: The Price of “Off Wall Street” Research
• 11: Stock to Watch — International Securities Exchange (ISE)
• 11: Notable New Highs — March 10, 2006
• 10: No Notable New Highs for Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday this Week
• 07: Notable New Highs — March 6, 2006
• 06: Before You Run Out to Rent “Crash”…
• 05: Warren Buffett’s 2005 Letter To Berkshire Shareholders
• 05: One Key
• 04: ETF to Watch — PowerShares Water Resources (PHO)
• 04: RIMM Shot Nearly Impossible to Catch
• 04: Long and Short Interest Rates
• 04: Stock to Watch — Seacor (CKH)
• 04: Notable New Highs — March 3, 2006
• 03: Cheapness and Change
• 03: 40 Million Frustrated Bachelors by 2020
• 03: Unfitted Psychologically for Short-Term Trading
• 03: 25 “Next Net” Companies
• 03: Stock to Watch — Garmin (GRMN)
• 03: Notable New Highs — March 2, 2006
• 02: Getting in Touch with the Labial Fricative
• 02: Fraud, Deception and General Incompetence
• 02: The New 10 Spot
• 02: Stock to Watch — NeuroMetrix (NURO)
• 02: Notable New Highs — March 1, 2006
• 01: Buffett: “I Have Three Boxes on My Desk: IN, OUT, and TOO HARD”

February 2006

• 28: Year-End 2005 Shareholder Scorecard
• 28: Recording Every Single Trade Ever Done in Shanghai
• 28: Super Busy This Week — No Lists or Charts, Sorry!
• 27: Another Reason to Own Wal-Mart
• 27: Access China Conference
• 27: International Money Transfer
• 27: Nouveaux Nawabs
• 25: Insufficient Personality Cult
• 25: Stock to Watch — Copart (CPRT)
• 25: Notable New Highs — February 24, 2006
• 24: The Ravening Desire She Felt for Him Was Superseded by a Tenderness that Was Almost Maternal
• 24: Losing Control in a Non-Digital Environment
• 24: Stock to Watch — Ctrip.com (CTRP)
• 24: Notable New Highs — February 23, 2006
• 24: Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances
• 23: De Facto Cashiers of the State
• 23: Stock to Watch — SonoSite (SONO)
• 23: Notable New Highs — February 22, 2006
• 22: Identifying Bear Market Bottoms and New Bull Markets
• 22: Stock to Watch — Titanium Metals (TIE)
• 22: Notable New Highs — February 21, 2006
• 22: The Chance to Live Normal
• 21: Checking on T-Bill Rates
• 21: Asking Questions of Comparative Value
• 20: Keeping a Close Watch on Market Breadth
• 20: Desperate Housewives Turn to Day Trading for Fun and Profit
• 19: Financial Glossary Wiki
• 18: Baby T Turns One
• 18: Your Head Is As Empty As a Pepper
• 18: Obscurantist Apparatchiks Losing Their Grip
• 18: Stock to Watch — Sovran Storage (SSS)
• 18: Notable New Highs — February 17, 2006
• 17: The Clueless, Gullible Dinosaurs at Time Warner
• 17: Notable New Highs — February 16, 2006
• 17: Stock to Watch — Danaher (DHR)
• 16: Mass Education Sucks
• 16: Speak in a Low, Soothing and Pleasant Voice
• 16: Looking at the Crash in Natural Gas Prices
• 16: Notable New Highs — February 15, 2006
• 16: Stock to Watch — Roper Industries (ROP)
• 15: 2005 Annual Report for Longleaf Partners Funds
• 15: Stock to Watch — J.B. Hunt (JBHT)
• 15: Notable New Highs — February 14, 2006
• 15: Elmore Leonard’s Ten Rules of Writing
• 14: Taking the Long View — Exxon Mobil (XOM)
• 14: Stock to Watch — JAKKS Pacific (JAKK)
• 14: Notable New Highs — February 13, 2006
• 14: Trend Followers Short Google for Now
• 13: A Profound Problem of Self-Regulation
• 11: Suspending the Stocks to Watch Lists for Now
• 11: Southwestern Energy (SWN) — The End of a Great Run?
• 10: Junior? Engineer
• 10: Stock to Watch — Life Time Fitness (LTM)
• 10: Vintage Chinese Propaganda Posters
• 09: Trouble Using FeedBurner Plug-in
• 09: Stock to Watch — Parlux Fragrances (PARL)
• 09: ETF to Watch — SPDR Homebuilders ETF (XHB)
• 09: StockDigg
• 08: AdSense or AdCents? Or, Why I’m Not Rich from Blogging
• 08: Vanguard Closes Precious Metals and Mining Fund
• 08: Stock to Watch — BTU International (BTUI)
• 08: DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC)
• 07: A Spectacle To Behold, But Does It Have Value?
• 07: First Impressions of a Face Transplant
• 07: Stock to Watch — DaVita (DVA)
• 06: Stuck in China Technology Development (CTDC)?
• 05: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of February 6, 2006
• 04: Conspicuous Consumption Among China’s Nouveaux Riche
• 04: Stock to Watch — Fuel-Tech N.V. (FTEK)
• 04: ETF to Watch — iShares MSCI Malaysia (EWM)
• 03: Stock to Watch — CB Richard Ellis (CBG)
• 03: Further Consolidation of Real-time Market Data Providers
• 02: Sentiment Index — Too Much Optimism Out There
• 02: Stock to Watch — Witness Systems (WITS)
• 02: Travel in Chinese, Hosted by Mark Rowswell
• 01: Canada Versus Germany
• 01: Stock to Watch — Vista Gold (VGZ)
• 01: The Free World’s Most Powerful Unelected Official
• 01: Google’s After-Hours Action

January 2006

• 31: Stock to Watch — Heartland Express (HTLD)
• 30: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of January 30, 2006
• 30: The Problem of the “Empties”
• 28: Old Dogs, New Tricks
• 28: Success!
• 28: Copper, Phelps Dodge, and the Elusive Liu Qibing
• 25: Switching Hosts Again - Expect Site to Disappear for a Bit
• 25: Exchanging Places - CME, ICE, BOT
• 24: Reviewing the Stocks to Watch Lists
• 23: The Inevitability of a New High in Crude
• 23: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of January 23, 2006
• 20: Warren Buffett Explains How to Pan for Gold
• 20: Stock to Watch — Lionbridge Technologies (LIOX)
• 19: Ain’t It the Truth
• 19: China to Merge A-share, B-share Markets
• 18: Department of What Took Them So Long?
• 18: Stock to Watch — Superior Well Services (SWSI)
• 17: Top Ten Best Performing Stocks of 2005
• 16: Stock to Watch — Hydril (HYDL)
• 16: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of January 16, 2006
• 11: Away Until Next Monday
• 11: Stocks to Watch — Apple Computer (AAPL)
• 10: Stocks to Watch - for Tuesday, January 10
• 10: Stock to Watch — Focus Media (FMCN)
• 09: Stock to Watch: bebe stores (BEBE)
• 09: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of January 9, 2006
• 06: Stock to Watch: True Religion Apparel (TRLG)
• 05: Looking Over the Stocks to Watch Lists
• 05: Stock to Watch: SiRF Technology (SIRF)
• 02: Domain Name Server YNS1.YAHOO.COM Not Accessible from China
• 02: 2005 Returns for Selected Vanguard Funds
• 02: Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of January 2, 2006

December 2005

• 23: ETF to Watch: iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (EFA)
• 22: Lehman Acquires RealTick
• 22: Stock to Watch: FedEx (FDX)
• 21: Stocks to Watch: General Motors (GM), Capital One Financial (COF)
• 20: Describing My Internet Surfing Behavior
• 20: Stock to Watch: TheStreet.com (TSCM)
• 19: Interesting Bits from Barron’s - Week of December 19, 2005
• 19: Sugar’s Sweet Run Near an End
• 16: Third Ring Road at 5:30 PM
• 16: Stock to Watch — 24/7 Real Media (TFSM)
• 15: Stocks to Watch — Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Panera Bread (PNRA)
• 14: Baby T’s Checkup at 11 Months
• 14: Stocks to Watch — Boeing (BA), Wendy’s (WEN)
• 13: Stocks to Watch — Sify (SIFY), Rediff.com (REDF)
• 12: Titanium Metals (TIE) - Possible Top?
• 09: Stocks to Watch — Shanda (SNDA), Powerwave Technologies (PWAV)
• 08: Stocks to Watch — Spectranetics (SPNC), Spherix (SPEX)
• 07: Stocks to Watch — Tribune (TRB), Gannett (GCI)
• 06: Stocks to Watch — Monster Worldwide (MNST), Redback Networks (RBAK)
• 05: Herbie Greenberg’s Reality Check: HANS, OVTI
• 02: Review of Fixed-Income ETFs: AGG, IEF, LQD, SHY, TIP, TLT
• 01: Checking Up on the Liu Qibing Squeeze
• 01: Stocks to Watch — Trident Microsystems (TRID) and Abbott Labs (ABT)

November 2005

• 30: Stock to Watch — PRG-Schultz International (PRGX for Dummies)
• 29: Barron’s Recognizes the Beauty of Ugly
• 29: Stocks to Watch — Microvision (MVIS) and Macrovision (MVSN)
• 28: Junky Pole-Snatchers are Models of Precision and Efficiency
• 28: Stocks to Watch — Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Phelps Dodge (PD)
• 24: Explaining the Success of Seinfeld (Versus Curb Your Enthusiasm)
• 24: Are You an Expert? (Or, Do You Have a Database of Chunks?)
• 24: Goldman Lehman Merrill & Bear
• 23: Oil Services HOLDRS and Selected Component Stocks
• 22: Stocks to Watch — China Medical Technologies (CMED) and UbiquiTel (UPCS)
• 21: Allocation of GM’s Pension Assets
• 21: Stocks to Watch — Beazer Homes (BZH) and Microsemi (MSCC)
• 18: Motorbiking in Northern Laos Thanks to the EU
• 18: Stocks to Watch — EMCORE (EMKR) and JLG Industries (JLG)
• 17: A Few Notes Upon Returning from South China
• 17: The Squeeze Goes On (Sung to the Tune of The Beat Goes On)
• 17: Stocks to Watch — Blockbuster (BBI) and Glamis Gold (GLG)
• 14: Away for a Couple of Days
• 14: The World’s Third Most Widely Used Metal
• 14: Stocks to Watch — Design Within Reach (DWRI) and SkyWest (SKYW)
• 11: Stock Charts Greasemonkey User Script
• 11: The Wisdom of Charlie Munger
• 11: Stocks to Watch — Golden Star Resources (GSS) and Charles Schwab (SCH)
• 10: Free Conference Call Transcripts via Bangalore
• 10: Stocks to Watch — BioMarin Pharma. (BMRN) and General Motors (GM)
• 09: Another Rambling Bit of Ephemera
• 09: Stocks to Watch — SBA Communications (SBAC) and Aleris Int’l (ARS)
• 08: A Few New Blogs of Note
• 08: Stocks to Watch — Quidel (QDEL) and American Oriental Bioengineering (AOB)
• 07: Beijing Air Pollution
• 07: America’s Brain Drain
• 07: Measuring Investor Sentiment
• 07: Reviewing Old Stock Picks
• 07: Tradestation Q3 Results
• 07: Why Sideways Sucked
• 07: Popular Podcasts
• 07: Crude Oil’s Complex Head and Shoulders Top
• 04: Health Care Costs in China
• 04: Roundup of Recently Watched DVDs
• 04: Prudential Breaks Out After Dumping Acampora
• 03: Eight Charts of Note with my Comments
• 02: Enjoying the Martin Beck Police Mysteries
• 02: Stock to Watch — Crown Castle International (CCI)
• 01: Explaining the Stocks to Watch Lists

October 2005

• 31: Wally Weitz is Getting Excited
• 31: Pharmaceutical HOLDRS Component Review
• 28: A Few Random Notes from Our Recent Trip to America
• 28: Market Sentiment Remarkably Complacent - Stand Aside

September 2005

• 28: Outsourcing Tutors
• 06: Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., Ltd.

August 2005

• 24: What to Watch for in Toll Brothers
• 23: Chat Transcript: Have the Homebuilder Stocks Peaked?
• 09: Swing Trading Strong Stocks Using the Holy Grail Technique

June 2005

• 22: Baby Teeth, Craigslist Beijing, and Forbidden Google Maps
• 08: Baby Portfolio Pick

April 2005

• 15: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — April 15, 2005
• 15: The Wisdom of Burton Pugh
• 01: TASER’s Textbook Chart

March 2005

• 31: Santa Monica’s Palisades Park
• 31: Trading MINI to the Max
• 18: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — March 18, 2005
• 15: Pampers Rule
• 11: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — March 11, 2005
• 07: Of Thee I Sing, Baby
• 04: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — March 4, 2005

February 2005

• 18: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — February 18, 2005
• 11: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — February 11, 2005
• 04: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — February 4, 2005

January 2005

• 28: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — January 28, 2005
• 24: Chart of the Day — Taser, Weekly Chart
• 21: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — January 21, 2005
• 14: Baby T Arrives
• 07: Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — January 7, 2005
• 05: Madeleine Peyroux — Careless Love
• 05: Chart of the Day — Gold, Hourly Chart
• 05: Consolidating Fragmented Liquidity Pools
• 05: 2005 Bond Strategy
• 05: Creditors, Haircuts, and Declining to Comment

November 2004

• 09: The Daily Zinger
• 09: Erin McKeown
• 09: Big Media Bites Back
• 09: Your Election Map on Acid
• 09: Print Club 2005
• 09: Gold ETF Coming Soon
• 09: Bringing New Meaning to the Term, “Execution”

October 2004

• 04: Keep an Eye on PDG
• 04: Mark Knopfler — Shangri-La
• 04: Dollar Bears and Fractals
• 04: Sentiment Update for the Week Ending October 1, 2004

August 2004

• 24: Oh! Look at Me Now

June 2004

• 29: The Wisdom of Paul Rotter
• 29: Andy Williams
• 29: Subminuette IV
• 29: The Unique Hucksterism of Deceptive Language
• 29: Norse Virtues
• 29: Dorfman’s Bunny
• 04: Putting Gas Prices in Perspective

May 2004

• 10: Sheep Guts
• 10: The Emptiness of Buying and Selling Paper

March 2004

• 14: Gold Pandas

January 2004

• 30: Overcoming One’s Own Psychological Weaknesses

December 2003

• 06: Trading for Dummies, Q&A #95
• 05: Trading for Dummies, Q&A #94
• 04: Trading for Dummies, Q&A #92 & #93

November 2003

• 15: Trading for Dummies, Q&A #78 & #79
• 13: Trading for Dummies, Q&A #75
• 08: Trading for Dummies, Q&A #72

October 2003

• 31: Trading for Dummies, Q&A #63
• 22: Trading for Dummies, Q&A #53
• 15: Trading for Dummies, Q&A #48

September 2003

• 18: Trading for Dummies, Q&A #24

August 2003

• 30: Trading for Dummies, Q&A #11
• 29: Trading for Dummies, Q&A #10
• 28: Trading for Dummies, Q&A #9
• 27: Trading for Dummies, Q&A #8
• 26: Trading for Dummies, Q&A #7
• 23: Trading for Dummies, Q&A #6
• 22: Trading for Dummies, Q&A #5
• 21: Trading for Dummies, Q&A #4
• 20: Trading for Dummies, Q&A #3
• 19: Trading for Dummies, Q&A #2
• 18: Trading for Dummies, Q&A #1

July 2003

• 11: Tips on Trading with the Trend

January 2003

• 08: An Interview with Warren Buffett in 1974

October 2002

• 19: “I Gave Up Being A Contrarian When…

September 2002

• 10: Na&iuml;ve, Stupid, Masochistic

April 2002

• 17: Go Fish

March 2002

• 18: Flying High
• 08: Perfect Timing

February 2002

• 07: Test of Top

December 2001

• 26: Discovering Nanzhao

• 20: Uncle Sugar

• 16: Pension Apprehension

• 15: Mission Accomplished

• 14: Voodoo Recovery

• 12: Directional Bias

• 10: Sell the News

• 08: Can't Make a Dime

• 07: Buns of Steel

• 06: Reality Bites

• 05: Supply and Demand

• 04: Past Tense

• 03: Audit Risk

• 02: Up In Smoke

• 01: Day Late, Dollar Short

- November 2001 -

2001.11.30 : Outliers
2001.11.29 : Unaffordable Housing
2001.11.28 : Prepare for Takeoff
2001.11.25 : Go Lightly
2001.11.23 : Waistline + 3.14159
2001.11.21 : Patience Premium
2001.11.18 : Deadly Denominator
2001.11.16 : The Best Wurst
2001.11.14 : Mo Margin Mo Problems
2001.11.12 : Exchange Traded Fun
2001.11.10 : Spyware Beware
2001.11.09 : Pachinko Parlor
2001.11.08 : Gotham City
2001.11.07 : On The Go
2001.11.06 : Related Party Time
2001.11.05 : Bumper Crop
2001.11.04 : Blockbuster Buster
2001.11.03 : Aeron Roundup
2001.11.02 : Pushing String
2001.11.01 : Cash Is King

- October 2001 -

2001.10.31 : Consumer Diffidence
2001.10.30 : Blank Screen
2001.10.28 : Cousin Skeeter
2001.10.26 : Road Rage
2001.10.25 : Cockeyed Spaniard
2001.10.24 : Ogle Goggles
2001.10.23 : Tag Sales
2001.10.20 : Scrum-ptious
2001.10.19 : Reliquifinance
2001.10.18 : Substantial Doubt
2001.10.17 : Changing Cells
2001.10.15 : Software for SAPs
2001.10.14 : Cliff Diving
2001.10.13 : Color Drive
2001.10.12 : Low Tech Warfare
2001.10.11 : Pro Forma
2001.10.10 : Witty, Charming, and Rich
2001.10.09 : Face Time
2001.10.08 : Caged Sky
2001.10.07 : Making Babies
2001.10.06 : Cookie Monster
2001.10.05 : Full Bloom
2001.10.04 : Broken Windows
2001.10.03 : No Shirt, No Shoes, No Service
2001.10.02 : B.O. Buster
2001.10.01 : Double Holiday

- September 2001 -

2001.09.30 : Other Special Charges
2001.09.29 : Pacified
2001.09.28 : Keyword Search
2001.09.27 : Salz... und Pfeffer
2001.09.26 : Department of Welfare
2001.09.25 : Bad Beat
2001.09.23 : Flag Day

hefeiddd

Saturday, March 21, 2009Bull vs. Bear
All the markets were up to some extent this week but the real stars were the precious metals. Many juniors were up 50% or more this week alone. Now you see why I have no desire to fight with the bear when much bigger gains can be had on the long side of a bull market.

Seriously how often do you see a whole sector move 20, 30 or 50% in a week? It took 18 months for the stock market to fall 50%. The reality is that most investors aren’t going to make a lot of money shorting stocks. By the time the counter trend rallies get done with you you will probably be lucky to come away in the green. Not to mention the stress of constantly worrying what the Fed is going to do next that could send the market rocketing higher without warning. As we’ve so often seen, many times they will pull a fast one before the market opens causing a large gap up and preventing the bears from exiting. That in turn creates a panic short squeeze. Let’s face it, shorting a bear market is a nerve racking business.

Personally, it’s much easier for me to just hop on board the bull and then go play. All one has to do is check in once every couple of weeks to see where the gold:XAU ratio is at or if gold is getting stretched too far above the mean. How hard is that? No stress. Anything the Fed does can only help us not hinder us.

More in the weekend update...

Posted by Gary at 10:26 AM

0 comments Links to this post




Thursday, March 19, 2009Here we go!
Let me start off by reminding everyone of the one universal truth. "You can't get something for nothing" I'm sorry, you just can't. Not in this world.

Now would someone please tell Bernanke!

I can tell you right now Bernanke is not going to be able to inflate. That chart is the reason why. It's the same reason why the Fed's wild printing spree last year didn't work and only led to a deflationary collapse. Oil, energy, the life blood of the global economy.

For some reason Bernanke seems to think that if he can only fix the banking system everything will heal. I've got news for him, Wall street and main street are interconnected. You simply can't fix one and at the same time destroy the other and expect to have a winning strategy.

We all saw what happened last year when Bernanke's printing presses had the unintended consequences of spiking energy prices. I had been saying for over a year that Bernanke's monetary policies would backfire, spike energy and put us into a recession.

I've got news for you spiking energy prices are ultimately deflationary. I think anyone can look at the CRB, global stock markets, Baltic dry index, etc. etc. after July 08 and see what I mean.

Yesterday the Fed made it clear they were going to inflate at all costs and today oil started the process of telling them "Oh no you won't"!

Posted by Gary at 7:01 PM

11 comments Links to this post





I want to continue my thought process from yesterday's post.

One has to ask will the Fed's actions bring the speculators back to the housing market? The sad fact is that we built too many houses driven mostly by demand from speculators looking to flip. Unless we see those speculators come back we simply have too many houses. Too much supply and too little demand equals lower prices.

Will the Fed's actions somehow drive people to spend? If people are maxed out on their credit lines and can't service their debt payments now how does anything the Fed does entice these people to take on more debt that they can't service.

Now add in rising unemployment to the mix and I just don't see how anything the Fed does can cure any of the underlying problems. Ultimately all they are going to do is heap a crushing amount of inflation onto the backs of the consumer who is already struggling to survive.

Posted by Gary at 6:17 AM

17 comments Links to this post




Wednesday, March 18, 2009What just happened?
I suppose I should do a post on what just went down today :-)

First off let me say that nothing unexpected happened today. The market has known for months that the Fed was going to buy treasuries. They've been printing trillions of dollars for a year and a half. Does another trillion really make any difference? No, there were no surprises today.

There is one thing and one thing only going on. The market is simply bouncing out of the seasonal cycle low. That's it, nothing more. The S&P was going to hit the 800 level with or without the Fed. Maybe they managed to speed up the process by a day or two but it was going to happen.

Let me assure everyone that this is not the magic bullet anymore than anything else the Fed has tried over the last 18 months. Let me also assure everyone that the bear market will not end until valuations become ridiculously cheap. According to Barrons the S&P is now trading at a P/E of 23. That's not cheap.

Secular bear markets don't end until we get into single digit P/E's. This time will be no different.

All that being said we are at the beginning of another violent bear market rally. These rallies last on average 2-3 months. The ones that bounce out of seasonal cycle lows can be very convincing.

Sadly to say this is how the bear keeps everyone hanging on for the full ride down. Trust me, almost everyone will end up taking the full ride down either because they were too stupid to get off when they had the chance (most retail investors will fall into this category) or because they tried to repeatedly pick the never ending bottom in what will eventually turn out to be either the second worst or the worst bear market in history (most sophisticated investors are going to fall into this category).

Make no mistake, by the time this is finally over there will be almost no one left standing.

Posted by Gary at 8:43 PM

6 comments Links to this post




Scary you out or wear you out
Gold moves in a four wave pattern. The A wave advance rarely takes gold to new highs. That's followed by a B wave decline that rarely makes new lows. The C wave is where gold moves to new highs. Some times it can make huge moves higher as evidenced by the last C wave that took gold over $1000. At the completion of the C wave gold will fall into a D wave decline that serves to correct some part of the previous C wave.

It seems pretty obvious that the D wave decline is over. In fact gold just went through the most powerful A wave advance of the entire 9 year bull market.

Now gold is in the middle of another B wave decline. The question is will the decline drop further and scare investors out or will it chop sideways long enough to wear investors out.

I don't know the answer to that one. What I do know is that once the C wave advance starts I want to be on board. The year long consolidation from the Mar. peak is suggesting that the next C wave is going to be a monster.

Posted by Gary at 5:13 AM

16 comments Links to this post




Monday, March 16, 2009Is it time for the financials to bounce?
From the peak in 07 at $120 to the recent trough of $18 the BKX has lost roughly 85% of it's value. At Friday's low of $17.75 the BKX was stretched 66% below the 200 DMA. That's pretty extreme for any bear market.

During the first phase the BKX retraced 50% of it's fall before resuming the down trend.

I'm guessing we could now see something similar. A retracement to the $45 area wouldn't surprise me.

I think the market may be putting in a seasonal cycle low right now. For the last two years that low has come in March. It has been followed by a strong rally each time.

If the Banks can put in a nice bounce we might see the market manage to recover the 200 DMA before things turn sour again.

Posted by Gary at 8:49 AM

8 comments Links to this post




Friday, March 13, 20094 day rule
If the market can close positive today it will trigger a "4 day rule" possible trend change.

The rule states that 4 days in a row counter to a long intermediate trend often confirms a change of trend.

However the weekly cycle isn't due to bottom until possibly mid to late April or early May. I think it's probable that we get a test of the bottom at that time. That would set up a more sustained rally.

This bear market is going to need to test the 200 day moving average at some point in order to keep investors riding all the way down.

I'm thinking the best time for that would be this summer after the weekly cycle bottoms.

I can hear the media now, rationalizing how the stimulus plan is working, etc. etc. Unfortunately I also expect the stimulus, easy money policies to again spike the energy markets (as I said in the previous post) thus driving the global economies deeper into the depression. Make no mistake this bear won't end until summer or fall 2010 when the next 4 year cycle low is due.

There really is no free lunch!

Posted by Gary at 7:19 AM

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hefeiddd

Thursday, March 12, 2009Is the Fed going to do it two times in a row?

This is going to go along with the post I did the other day on oil and energy stocks. Notice in the chart that the 10 and now the 20 DMA are in the process of crossing above the 50 DMA.


We all know the Fed is desperately trying to devalue the dollar and create inflation. Heck the US is broke. The only way to pay our debts is to print money.


I don't know if the Fed is going to be successful or not. The deflationary forces aligned against them are huge. They may be temporarily successful.


If that's the case oil may be just beginning to respond to the inflationary pressures of the Fed.


Remember last year it was the Fed's ignorant inflationary efforts to stop the credit bubble from imploding that spiked oil prices. That was the straw that broke the camels back and sent the economy into a downward spiral.



Apparently Bernanke hasn't learned a thing. Now oil may be fixing to "teach" him the lesson again.

I dare say the only thing positive about the last 6 months has been the collapse in gasoline prices. If the Fed again spikes the price of energy with their crazy monetary policies it is going to intensify this, I can't even call it a recession with a straight face anymore, depression.

When will some one get these people out of power before they destroy what's left of our economy?

What's next, another tax rebate with gasoline at $3.00 per gallon so we can push it to $5.00 this time?



Posted by Gary at 7:04 AM

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Wednesday, March 11, 2009spam blocker
Just a note that if you haven't received daily updates lately you might want to check your spam blockers. Rick Becker this one's for you :-)

Posted by Gary at 7:54 AM

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Tuesday, March 10, 2009Where to play the rally?

In the previous post I said we had a tricky period ahead of us. There were two things I wanted to see before switching to the long side. First I wanted to see some sign that institutional money was willing to come back into the market. That means some heavy positive money flows on the SPYDER's. Then I needed to see a swing low as the buying into weakness is often a little early.


Well we got the positive money flow last night and the swing low this morning. The odds are now in favor of another bear market rally.


How long will it last? No one knows. I'll be watching the selling into strength data for some clues that big money is sneaking out the back door.


In the meantime where should we play this rally. Well if one is willing to accept a lot of risk they could buy the double or triple ETF's. Those that don't have a death wish might want to take a look at the energy market.


If oil can break through the $50 level then I think there's a decent chance we could see a 38% retracement of the bear market. That would take oil back up to the $75-$80 level. The big winners on a move like that will most likely be the oil service stocks. OIH for those not wanting to open themselves to company specific risk.




Posted by Gary at 7:53 PM

4 comments Links to this post




Sunday, March 8, 2009Tricky period ahead
We have a tricky period ahead of us right here. For one the market is now entering the timing band for a cycle low. That means it's getting dangerous to press the short side.

However the T1 pattern we've been watching is still a bit short. Ideally I would like to see the market move down to the 650/630 area before looking for a bounce back up to test the consolidation zone and breakdown level of the multi month consolidation.

It's no surprise that the market bounced off the 665 level. That is the 62% retracement of the entire bull market from 1980 to Oct. 07. That is a logical place for shorts to cover and I expect every hedge fund in the world was watching that level.

There wasn't the normal surge in volume as the market reversed on Friday that we usually see at important intermediate lows. Also there was a bit of selling into strength at the close which makes me wonder if Friday really marked the daily cycle bottom.

I think we probably have one more daily cycle down before this is over, so I don't expect the coming low to be anything other than a short term bounce before we see the final move into a more lasting bottom probably in April or early May. (I went over this in depth in the weekend update).

For those wanting to play the long side as we bounce out of the now due daily cycle low I would urge that you at least wait for a swing low and not try to anticipate a bottom at this time.

Posted by Gary at 8:06 PM

6 comments Links to this post




Friday, March 6, 2009Gold update




It's amazing how much angst a meager 10% correction in gold can instill in investors. Be honest how many of you freaked out during gold's pullback?


Keeping in mind that nothing is certain in the investing business let's take a look and see where we stand.


So far gold hasn't even broken the intermediate trend line. So we don't even have a possible 1-2-3 reversal yet.


Gold tested the consolidation zone of the T1 pattern in play and now looks to be breaking back out to the upside.


Finally, looking at the bigger picture we see gold pulled back far enough to test the breakout line and has bounced strongly off that level.


At this point I don't see anything to get negative about yet. Unless something changes I have to assume the secular bull is still intact. Heck, as far as I can tell right now the intermediate trend is still intact.


I suspect the bull managed to shake off quite a few investors without really doing any damage to the long or intermediate term trend. You have to hold on tight if you want to ride this bull all the way to the finish line.



Posted by Gary at 7:49 AM

8 comments Links to this post




Wednesday, March 4, 2009Bottom????

So did we put in an intermediate bottom today or was this just an oversold bounce?

We were expecting a bounce as evidenced by the Bollinger band crash trade signal that I posted two days ago. That trade closed profitable today. As I said the BB trade has been one of the most productive mechanical long side trades during the bear market. (It was during the 2000-02 bear market also)

However I think the second scenario, just an oversold bounce, is probably the case, with more downside to come. I'll explain in tonights report.

Posted by Gary at 6:02 PM

10 comments Links to this post




The market still tied to the dollar

So far the T1 pattern we've been watching on the dollar chart is playing out exactly as expected. The size of the first leg suggests that the second leg of this move should take the dollar to the 94-95 range. I really won't be looking for a more sustainable bounce until the dollar reaches that level.



At that point we can expect a test of the blue consolidation zone. That should take quite a bit of pressure off the market. I expect the market will bounce back up to the 800/850 level.


Watch the dollar. If the dollar rally starts to accelerate we could see stocks start to move down rapidly like they did in the fall. If the rise in the dollar is more orderly then the decline will probably drag out for one more daily cycle in the stock market and bottom in late Apr. or early May.


Posted by Gary at 3:55 AM

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hefeiddd

Monday, March 2, 2009QQQQ BB crash trade
With today's extreme move down we now have a Bollinger Band crash trade on the cubes for the first time since Jan.

I wouldn't expect too much though since we still likely have 1 or maybe even 2 weeks before the daily cycle is due to bottom.

This may be good for a one or two day minor snapback rally. That's probably about all one can expect at this point.

This actually may be a better signal to briefly cover shorts than as a long signal.

Posted by Gary at 2:09 PM

8 comments Links to this post




Sunday, March 1, 2009The mining stocks are starting to decouple
Since the November bottom the mining stocks as represented by the HUI are starting to decouple from the stock market. I've noted the last three daily cycle lows on the chart. In October and November miners followed the stock market down into those bottoms. At that point something began to change.

As the market rallied out of the November bottom the miners started to pull away from the market. At the next daily cycle low in January the general market weakness did manage to pull down the miners to some extent but on a relative basis they held up very well.

Then as the stock market continued to slowly fade the miners went on to make new highs.

Now we are heading into the next daily cycle trough. The market is making new lows but the miners are still over 70% above the November lows. The miners are holding up even better than at the last cycle low with only a mild pullback so far.

When gold's corrective move is over I expect the miners will follow it higher despite anything that's happening in the stock market.

Posted by Gary at 6:17 AM

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Saturday, February 28, 2009gold popularity
Unless you live under a rock you've noticed the increasingly numerous ads in the media about gold (nothing on silver yet). On the one hand this could be a contrarian indicator signalling a top is near.

While that's always a possibility I have my doubts. For one, the Dow:gold ratio is only at 7 right now. That's a far cry from the 1:1 that I expect to see at the final blow off top.

Second, gold was only about 11% above the 200 DMA recently. Again a far cry from the 60% that I expect to see at the final top.

Let's face it, in order for the gold bubble to happen we need the public to come into the gold market. I think we are still in the initial stages of the public becoming aware of the golden bull.

Another thing I've noticed is that most of the advertisements for gold are offers to buy gold. That sounds more like smart money trying to part you from your gold instead of savvy investors trying to unload at the top.

Posted by Gary at 5:54 PM

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Friday, February 27, 2009Dollar breakout
Today the dollar marginally broke out above the Nov. closing highs. I've been watching the ongoing T1 pattern as it unfolds. Today's breakout above the 88 level if it holds will likely spell trouble for equities.

I'll go over the implications of the breakout in the weekend report. Well at least my opinion of what it implies.



Posted by Gary at 1:44 PM

7 comments Links to this post




Tuesday, February 24, 2009Silver or gold?
It's no secret that I've turned bullish on gold. Yes, it appears we are starting a correction. Unfortunately all bull markets have them. Nothing goes straight up as they say.

The question is will this just be a minor correction followed by gold breaking the $1000 barrier or will we see another test of $850 or even a move to new lows? Nobody knows for sure least of all me.

However what I do believe is that we will see the Dow:gold ratio go to 1:1 before this is over. As long as one has patience, human nature should run its course and make any timing mistakes meaningless in the long run.

That being said I think there is a better place to be than gold. Lets say for the sake of argument that gold eventually goes to $4000. Sounds far fetched I know but then again bull markets always rise farther than anyone expects (just like bear markets drop deeper than anyone expects). A powerful bull market can easily do 2000% from trough to peak. Gold bottomed at $250. You do the math.

Now I want you to take a look at the chart. That's the ratio of silver to gold. Historically that ratio averages roughly 20 to 1. The panic selling this fall took this ratio to a ridiculous 88 to 1.

Now maybe silver doesn't get all the way back to 20:1. Let's just say for arguments sake that silver goes to 30-1 when gold tops out. That would put silver over $130 an oz. if gold reaches $4000.

Buying at today's price of $14.00 that would be an almost 900% gain as opposed to only 300% for gold.

I think the really big money is going to be made in silver as the next phase of the precious metals bull gets underway.

Posted by Gary at 7:30 PM

38 comments Links to this post




Sunday, February 22, 2009Is gold topping?
This seems to be the general consensus everywhere I look. It seems like everyone has noticed that gold is overbought and somehow that means gold has topped out. Don't get me wrong, it is entirely possible that gold has gone as far as it's going to go.

I just wanted to point out a few things. First off overbought doesn't necessarily mean top. Just go back and look at the breakout in 07.

Next, I want to take note that gold has now closed over $1000 for the third time in history. It's only a few dollars from closing at all time highs. Gold is already at all time closing highs on the weekly and monthly charts. Granted the month isn't over yet.

The COT isn't especially negative on gold yet and silver is still extremely bullish.

Gold has been moving steadily higher since Nov. I'm not really sure what's bearish about that.

Gold is still in a secular bull market.

The 50 day moving average has crossed back above the 200 day moving average and the 200 day moving average is turning back up.

Silver is forming a powerful rounded base. So are Platinum and Palladium.

The mining stocks are still stupid cheap compared to the price of gold.

The junior sector is exploding for the first time in quite a while.

Volume has been very heavy in the ETF's and mining stocks in general.

Other than biotech, which is questionable, precious metals are the only bull market in town so to speak.

As far as I can see the miners are the only sector that has improving earnings potential. The price of their product is going up and their expenses are coming down. I don't think we can say that for just about any other sector.

So sure gold could top anytime but until it does it seems like a waste of energy to try and pick a top. I think the greater danger is if gold breaks out of the year long consolidation above $1000 and enters the next phase of the bull market and one isn't on board because they were worried about an overbought oscillator.

Ultimately gold will finish the secular bull market no matter what the dollar or Euro or any currency does. So even if one doesn't spot every short term top correctly the overall trend will eventually correct any timing mistakes. That is if one has the patience to let the bull work for them.

More in the weekend update...

Posted by Gary at 3:24 PM

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Friday, February 20, 2009SPX Bollinger band crash trade
We now have another Bollinger band crash trade signal. The Bollinger band crash trade is and has been one of the most successful mechanical trading strategies during this bear market. It was in the 2000-2002 bear market also.

I expect we will see a bounce off the Nov. lows which will have all the bulls crying double bottom. I seriously doubt the double bottom will hold but we should get a bounce at least back above the Wednesday open.

Don't forget there are gaps in both the SPYDER's and Cube's from Tuesday's gap down open that are still begging to be filled also.

Posted by Gary at 4:03 AM

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hefeiddd

Thursday, February 19, 2009Golden sentiment

Granted these things are hard to quantify but it seems to me that the prevailing sentiment right now towards gold is that it is overbought and due for a correction.


I'm not really seeing the panic buying that typifies most tops in gold.


I've pointed out before that overbought can get a heck of a lot more overbought in a powerful bull market.


All those traders that sold their silver because it was overbought only managed to miss a 30+% move.


If we do get a correction, great, I'll be able to put the rest of my capital to work. But selling simply because a bull market is overbought? No thank you!


Posted by Gary at 9:02 AM

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Wednesday, February 18, 2009"Old Turkey"
I love this story from Reminisces of a stock operator. It is so appropriate as the second phase of the gold and silver bull get underway.

"Most let us call' em customers -- are alike. You find very few who can truthfully say that Wall Street doesn't owe them money. In Fullerton's there were the usual crowd. All grades!Well, there was one old chap who was not like the others. To begin with, he was a much older man.

Another thing was that he never volunteered advice and never bragged of his winnings. He was a great hand for listening very attentively to the others.He did not seem very keen to get tips -- that is, he never asked the talkers what they'd heard or what they knew. But when somebody gave him one he always thanked the tipster very politely. Sometimes he thanked the tipster again -- when the tip turned out O.K. But if it went wrong he never whined, so that nobody could tell whether he followed it or let it slide by.

It was a legend of the office that the old jigger was rich and could swing quite a line. But he wasn't donating much to the firm in the way of commissions; at least not that anyone could see. His name was Partridge, but they nicknamed him Turkey behind his back, because he was so thick-chested and had a habit of strutting about the various rooms, with the point of his chin resting on his breast.

The customers, who were all eager to be shoved and forced into doing things so as to lay the blame for failure on others, used to go to old Partridge and tell him what some friend of a friend of an insider had advised them to do in a certain stock.They would tell him what they had not done with the tip so he would tell them what they ought to do. But whether the tip they had was to buy or to sell, the old chap's answer was always the same. The customer would finish the tale of his perplexity and then ask: "What do you think I ought to do?"Old Turkey would cock his head to one side, contemplate his fellow customer with a fatherly smile, and finally he would say very impressively, "You know, it's a bull market!"

Time and again I heard him say, "Well, this is a bull market,you know!" as though he were giving to you a priceless talisman wrapped up in a million-dollar accident-insurance policy. And of course I did not get his meaning.

One day a fellow named Elmer Harwood rushed into the office, wrote out an order and gave it to the clerk. Then he rushed over to where Mr. Partridge was listening politely to John Fanning's story of the time he overheard Keene give an order to one of his brokers and all that John made was a measly three points on a hundred shares and of course the stock had to go up twenty-four points in three days right after John sold out. It was at least the fourth time that John had told him that tale of woe, but old Turkey was smiling as sympathetically as if it was the first time he heard it. Well, Elmer made for the old man and, without a word of apology to John Fanning, told Turkey, "Mr. Partridge, I have just sold my Climax Motors. My people say the market is entitled to a reaction and that I'll be able to buy it back cheaper. So you'd better do likewise. That is, if you've still got yours."

Elmer looked suspiciously at the man to whom he had given the original tip to buy. The amateur, or gratuitous, tipster always thinks he owns the receiver of his tip body and soul, even before he knows how the tip is going to turn out."Yes, Mr. Harwood, I still have it. Of course!" said Turkey gratefully. It was nice of Elmer to think of the old chap."Well, now is the time to take your profit and get in again on the next dip," said Elmer, as if he had just made out the deposit slip for the old man.

Failing to perceive enthusiastic gratitude in the beneficiary's face Elmer went on: "I have just sold every share I owned!" From his voice and manner you would have conservatively estimated it at ten thousand shares.But Mr. Partridge shook his head regretfully and whined, "No!No! I can't do that!": 'What?" yelled Elmer. "I simply can't!" said Mr. Partridge. He was in great trouble."Didn't I give you the tip to buy it?""You did, Mr. Harwood, and I am very grateful to you.Indeed, I am, sir. But --" "Hold on! Let me talk! And didn't that stock go up seven points in ten days? Didn't it?""It did, and I am much obliged to you, my dear boy. But I couldn't think of selling that stock."

"You couldn't?" asked Elmer, beginning to look doubtful himself. It is a habit with most tip givers to be tip takers."No, I couldn't.""Why not?" And Elmer drew nearer."Why, this is a bull market!" The old fellow said it as though he had given a long and detailed explanation."That's all right," said Elmer, looking angry because of his disappointment. "I know this is a bull market as well as you do. But you'd better slip them that stock of yours and buy it back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to yourself.""My dear boy," said old Partridge, in great distress "my dear boy, if I sold that stock now I'd lose my position; and then where would I be?"

Elmer Harwood threw up his hands, shook his head and walked over to me to get sympathy: "Can you beat it?" he asked me in a stage whisper. "I ask you!"I didn't say anything. So he went on: "I give him a tip on Climax Motors. He buys five hundred shares. He's got seven points' profit and I advise him to get out and buy 'em back on the reaction that's overdue even now. And what does he say when I tell him? He says that if he sells he'll lose his job. What do you know about that?""I beg your pardon, Mr. Harwood; I didn't say I'd lose my job," cut in old Turkey. "I said I'd lose my position. And when you are as old as I am and you've been through as many booms and panics as I have, you'll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller. I hope the stock reacts and that you will be able to repurchase your line at a substantial concession, sir. But I myself can only trade in accordance with the experience of many years. I paid a high price for it and I don't feel like throwing away a second tuition fee. But I am as much obliged to you as if I had the money in the bank. It's a bull market, you know." And he strutted away, leaving Elmer dazed.

What old Mr. Partridge said did not mean much to me until I began to think about my own numerous failures to make as much money as I ought to when I was so right on the general market.The more I studied the more I realized how wise that old chap was. He had evidently suffered from the same defect in his young days and knew his own human weaknesses. He would not lay himself open to a temptation that experience had taught him was hard to resist and had always proved expensive to him, as it was to me.

Posted by Gary at 7:03 PM

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Tuesday, February 17, 2009When the time comes
Granted it's still way too early for this trade but I'm taking notice of the relative strength in tech.

The Dow is on the verge of breaking the Nov. lows and the S&P isn't far behind. However the NDX hasn't even broken below the last trading cycle low yet. As a matter of fact it's still 16% above the Nov. lows.

As long as this relative strength continues to hold I will be looking at this sector for a counter trend trade late this month or early next month when we get the next cycle low.



Posted by Gary at 4:54 PM

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Monday, February 16, 2009Miners are on the move

As I've noted in recent posts, I believe we've seen the long term low for gold. The signs are many. Gold is now making higher highs. The down trend line from March has been broken. The 50 DMA has turned up and crossed above the 200 DMA and the 200 DMA has turned marginally higher.


All that is well and good but I'm more interested in mining stocks at this time. The weekly chart of GDX shows the ETF has solidly regained the 06/07 consolidation zone and the rally is coming on gigantic weekly volume.


On a daily basis the GDX has just broken out of a pennant continuation pattern, again on huge volume.


All that being said, I think there is a much better place to be than gold or gold miners. The complete analysis is in this weekend's report for subscribers.


Posted by Gary at 7:06 AM

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Saturday, February 14, 2009Crash again?
Could the market crash again?

It seems many of the bears are banking heavily on that happening. While anything is possible I think we would need some kind of catalyst for the market to crash twice. I will also note that we have never seen two climax selling periods one on top of another.

As I've pointed out in prior posts the S&P is still 25% below the 200 DMA. It's pretty tough to keep an index that depressed below the mean much less look for another massive move down from these depressed levels.

It took an implosion of the credit markets to start the last crash. Now we've just witnessed the first negative earnings in S&P history and the market has responded by trading sideways.

I'm not sure what we would have to see at this point to get another crash started but obviously poor earnings isn't going to do it.

It seems more logical to expect the market to either continue to trade sideways or slowly drift lower as unemployment continues to rise.

My guess is that the market will probably trade sideways for a bit longer and allow the 200 DMA to catch up a bit before we get the next serious leg down.

This could be a process that lasts into the summer so I'm not sure taking big short positions right now is the safest investment decision.

This probably explains why we aren't seeing any really heavy selling into strength readings lately.

Posted by Gary at 2:55 PM

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Friday, February 13, 2009Find the trend
Investors trying to trade the indexes are getting whipsawed to death. That's probably putting it mildly.

The bears think the market is ready to crash down to the 600 level.

The bulls say the market has already crashed, valuations are cheap and after a more than 50% decline this is already one of the worst bear markets in history. Hence we probably have a long term bottom.

Here's the problem as I see it. The market is still 25% below the 200 DMA. It's probably going to be tough to fall off a cliff again with the market still stretched so far below the mean. Not impossible mind you but tough.

Fundamentally earnings are going in the wrong direction. Until we see some indication that the recession is ending and earnings are heading back up it's going to be tough for the markets to rally much. Sure the Fed can just devalue the dollar and spark a rally that way. It worked in 2003. However we have a deflating credit bubble that is putting enormous deflationary pressure on the system. At this point its a stalemate.

The end result has been a market that is just trading sideways never giving us a sustainable trend. Investors trying to do anything other than day trade are getting fleeced.

There are two sectors however that are trending. Precious metals/miners and refiners. One has to ask themselves if it's really worth the stress of trying to second guess the daily swings in the market when they could just get on board one of the two areas that are moving higher and let the trend do the heavy lifting for them.

The longer the market stays in this vicious trading range the more investors are going to gravitate to these two trending sectors.

Posted by Gary at 9:18 AM

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Thursday, February 12, 2009gold sentiment and the dollar
I'll be the first to admit that gold sentiment is getting too bullish. At some point gold is most definitely going to have to correct and wipe out a big chunk of this bullishness.

However an interesting correlation has developed recently. Gold instead of trading inversely to the dollar has developed a tight positive correlation to the dollar. That has very bullish implications for gold.

The reason being that the dollar is now threatening to break out of the consolidation zone of the current T1 pattern. Once this happens we should see a second leg up in the dollar roughly equal to the first leg. That gives us a target of 93ish on the dollar chart.

As long as the positive correlation remains in play that would suggest a huge move higher for gold ... and don't even get me started on silver.

More in last nights update for subscribers.

Posted by Gary at 2:44 AM

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Wednesday, February 11, 2009Dow Theory

I think we have an important test coming. According to Dow Theory the primary trend is still down. However there is a nonconfirmation in progress. So far the transports have broken below their Nov. lows but the industrials have not. That is potentially bullish as many bottoms and tops occur with just such as nonconfirmation.



I've included the oil chart because I think it is going to be key as to whether the Dow confirms the transports or not. The reason being is that XOM and CVX are the number 2 and 3 heaviest weightings in the Dow. If oil breaks below $35 the energy stocks are going to probably react badly. We know the market can't rally with out the banks but I would say it's not going to be able to rally without energy either.


There is another consideration that could be calling for another forced liquidation like we saw in Oct. and Nov. I'll go over this in tonight's report.


Posted by Gary at 4:44 AM

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Monday, February 9, 2009Oil vs. gold
During the first phase of the commodity bull, base metals and energy were the outperformers. That makes sense as we were seeing the incredible expansion of emerging markets around the world especially China and India.

Once the second phase of the commodity bull starts, and I'm not convinced it has started yet, I wouldn't look for energy and base metals to be the leaders again. Remember the old leaders rarely lead the next bull market.

I suspect everyone will want to jump back on the energy bull once commodities do bottom and start the second phase. Granted oil will definitely rally. It may even make new highs again. I suspect it will. But it's not going to be the leader anymore.

The global economy has been far too damaged by the bursting of the credit bubble for demand in this sector to recover quickly.

No the second phase will be lead by the commodity sectors that underperformed during the first phase. It will be lead by the commodities that will benefit not from surging economic growth but surging money supplies. That would be precious metals and to some extent agriculture because infrastructure in this area has been neglected for years.

Liquidity will always flow into undervalued sectors.

During the 2001 to 2008 period oil gained over 1400%. I can pretty much guarantee that before the second phase of the commodity bull is over we will see the same thing happen in gold and probably more so as it's much easier for the general public to invest in gold and silver than oil.

You need the public to come into a asset class for a bubble to form. Yes, precious metals will undoubtedly end up in a bubble before this is over.

Let's just say I won't be at all surprised to see $3000-$5000 gold before this is finished.

That being said we are now due for a correction in the precious metals markets. Ultimately it will be a buying opportunity whether gold holds above the 1980 highs at $850 or if there is still one more leg down before we get a final low.

Posted by Gary at 3:41 PM

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Friday, February 6, 2009Watch the dollar
As we all know the market has been stuck in a difficult trading range for the last three weeks. Perusing the blogosphere I'm seeing countless methods being employed to try and forecast the direction of the market. Needless to say none of them are working at this point.

In my opinion the only thing we need to watch is the dollar. The Fed is going to try to debase the dollar and inspire another phony rally based on nothing more than inflation. However the forces of deflation are pressing down relentlessly.

We have the potential for a T1 pattern (you can find the technical rules on the lower right side of the home page) developing in the dollar. If the buck breaks out of this consolidation to the upside then we will most likely see the market move to new lows.

If the dollar explodes higher out of this consolidation then we could see another climax selling event.

Until the dollar decides where it is going I'm not going to try to second guess this market.

Posted by Gary at 4:57 AM

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Wednesday, February 4, 2009Stuck again

The market is again stuck in a range. Until it breaks out one way or the other there just doesn't appear to be anything to do right now.

A break to the downside has serious connotations though.

Posted by Gary at 5:33 AM

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Tuesday, February 3, 2009Gold




Gold has now been rallying for 15 weeks. We should get the first major test of the weekly trend line anytime now. If gold has put in a long term low then I would expect the trend to hold. I would like to see the 1980 highs at $850 hold during the coming test.


I would also want to see the 75 week moving average hold. That average acted as support throughout the entire bull market until we got the forced selling in Oct. and Nov.



My assumption at this time is that a giant T1 pattern in gold is now in play and gold will hold above these support levels. We'll just have to see how the decline unfolds as gold works it's way into the daily cycle low. I'll be monitoring this cycle in the daily updates.







Posted by Gary at 5:53 AM

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Monday, February 2, 2009Not a good sign
The move below the Jan. lows this morning isn't a good sign. I'll explain in detail in tonight's report.



Posted by Gary at 11:19 AM

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Thursday, January 29, 2009Confused yet?
To say this has been a difficult market lately is putting it mildly. The other day I noted in one of the daily updates that I thought it was going to be a waste of time to try and trade this market with any kind of technical approach be it patterns, retracements, support and resistance, Elliot wave, etc., etc.

Here's my opinion on what I think is going on. The market is trying to rally. However the fundamentals are so rotten that there just isn't any way to justify a higher market. The chop over the last couple of weeks hasn't helped either. Traders are now too nervous to hold for any length of time. Not exactly conducive to a trend developing.

With all the government intervention traders have no idea if tomorrow they are going to come in and the rules will have suddenly been changed. Also not conducive to a trend.

On top of that we just witnessed a crash, of historic proportions, that originated from below the 200 DMA. That's pretty unusual. As I noted the other day we are still extremely stretched below the mean. So I think it's going to be tough to crash again from these severely depressed levels.

In order to get the next big leg down I think the market is either going to have to find a way to rally and close some of that big gap between it and the 200 DMA or we are going to have to continue trading sideways and let the 200 DMA catch up to the market.

Posted by Gary at 5:46 PM

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