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发表于 2009-3-22 10:01
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Stock to Watch — Brady (BRC)Brady moved to a new high above round-number $40 on over five times average volume. The rest of the market was a bloodbath. ;-)
Brady Corporation engages in the manufacture and marketing of identification solutions and specialty materials worldwide. The company was founded in 1914 by William H. Brady and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
If you’re wondering what “identification solutions” are, they’re better known as tags and markers.
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Cat: | Time: 7:36 am (utc+8) Comments (0)
Notable New Highs — May 17, 2006It’s hard to make a list of Notable New Highs when there are no new highs. ;-) This kind of broad-based selling on a global scale can only happen when the mood is excessively complacent, which at least one guy has been warning about.
Nabokov was wrong when he wrote:
Complacency is a state of mind that exists only in retrospective: it has to be shattered before being ascertained.
The April highs may mark the highest levels the markets will reach in 2006.
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Cat: | Time: 7:16 am (utc+8) Comments (0)
May 17, 2006
Why Emoticons Are So ImportantIt’s all about me: Why e-mails are so easily misunderstood, by Daniel Enemark
Though e-mail is a powerful and convenient medium, researchers have identified three major problems. First and foremost, e-mail lacks cues like facial expression and tone of voice. That makes it difficult for recipients to decode meaning well. Second, the prospect of instantaneous communication creates an urgency that pressures e-mailers to think and write quickly, which can lead to carelessness. Finally, the inability to develop personal rapport over e-mail makes relationships fragile in the face of conflict.
It’s impossible to say how many people I’ve unintentionally insulted and upset via e-mail lo these many years. ;-)
- via The Kirk Report -
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Cat: | Time: 3:08 pm (utc+8) Comments (0)
Interest Rates Do Not Discipline a Financial System – Financial Crises DoMission Impossible?, by Billionaire Bill Gross
Having encountered mild but accelerating inflation, Japan, the ECB, and perhaps still our own Fed are embarked on a path of uncertain interest rate hikes, which pressure U.S. yields, which threaten the housing boom, which augurs for slowing consumption, which more than likely will then negatively impact Asia and Euroland economies. Talk about dominoes!
We are of the persuasion that the “Yen carry trade” embodied in 0% borrowing rates by Japanese individual and global institutional investors has been a significant factor in the compression of yields and risk spreads in almost all financial markets. As their 0% rate morphs now into something higher, financial markets will feel the impact.
The world needs a cheaper dollar to help rectify the U.S. current account deficit and the excesses of American consumption.
We believe that sometime within the next several years, a U.S. recession is likely, due to currency, commodity, and housing related influences. If so, and if the global economy slows in reaction, then moderate inflation is the most reasonable forecast.
Historically low risk spreads in all segments of the marketplace reflect a belief that this newly flattened global economy can grow at consistently high rates without a hitch. The history of capitalism would suggest caution if only because a normally balanced “creative destruction” environment can tilt as well when over-investment, excessive leverage, and the emotional responses of market makers and investors accelerate deteriorating fundamentals.
We continue to believe that the process of rebalancing the disequilibrium observed in excessive U.S. consumption and near negative savings will require higher incentives to reverse both conditions. Those “incentives,” even if externally imposed, speak to a weaker dollar and lower relative asset prices in comparison to the rest of the world.
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Cat: | Time: 2:25 pm (utc+8) Comments (0)
The Chinese Impact on World TourismChinese travel is taking off, by Howard French
In 1995, only 4.5 million Chinese traveled overseas. By 2005, that figure had increased to 31 million, and if expectations for future growth are met or approached, even this gargantuan growth will be quickly dwarfed. Both Chinese and international travel industry experts forecast that at least 50 million Chinese tourists will travel overseas annually by 2010 and 100 million by 2020.
As recently as the late 1980s, all but the Chinese elite were expressly forbidden from traveling overseas. But by 2003, China’s overseas travelers had already surpassed Japan’s, placing it squarely among the world’s leading travel nations.
This is one reason we own Boeing. Ctrip.com is another no-brainer, but I’m still figuring out what price I’m willing to pay for it (as it moves higher and higher, lol).
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Cat: | Time: 7:50 am (utc+8) Comments (1)
Stock to Watch — FactSet Research Systems (FDS)FactSet moved to a new high on over four times average volume. This stock has done very well over the last decade.
FactSet Research Systems, Inc. supplies economic and financial data and analytics to the investment community worldwide. The company’s applications provide users access to company analysis, multicompany comparisons, industry analysis, company screening, portfolio analysis, predictive risk measurements, alpha and backtesting, portfolio optimization, and real-time news and quotes. The company was founded in 1978 by Howard E. Wille and is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut.
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Cat: | Time: 7:44 am (utc+8) Comments (0)
Notable New Highs — May 16, 2006Slim pickings again… sharp-eyed readers will note that recently featured Stocks to Watch, Jones Soda (JSDA) and Brookdale Senior Living (BKD), have put in some nice moves and remain on the list.
The new lows list is a tech wreck: Microsoft (MSFT), eBay (EBAY), Dell (DELL), Juniper (JNPR), Electronic Arts (ERTS), Nortel (NT), etc. ad nauseam.
And of course, the Homebuilders. Fortunately for my readers, I held a chat in August 2005 called Have the Homebuilder Stocks Peaked?
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Cat: | Time: 7:23 am (utc+8) Comments (0)
May 16, 2006
“Erroneous” Reports and “Misleading” ViewsErnst & Young pulled their Global Nonperforming Loan Report 2006, in which they estimated NPL exposure for China at US$911 billion. I wrote a post about the report called Constructive Ambiguity.
Check this out [my emphasis]:
Upon further research, Ernst & Young Global finds that this number cannot be supported, and believes it to be factually erroneous. The NPL Report did not go through our normal internal review and approval process before it was released to the public and, as it contains errors, we are withdrawing the report … We apologize that this erroneous report was issued. We sincerely regret any misleading views that the report conveyed.
Looks like some cadre in China picked up the phone and kicked a little ass.
UPDATE: James Areddy in the Wall Street Journal:
Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
SHANGHAI — No one knows how much bad debt is in China’s banking system. And it can be risky to estimate.
After Ernst & Young LLP estimated earlier this month that the Chinese financial system is exposed to $900 billion in bad bank loans, the New York accounting firm drew a rebuke from Beijing. Now, the firm has retracted its opinion as “factually erroneous” and “embarrassing.”
In recent years, Beijing has made strenuous efforts to repair the balance sheets — and image — of its banks. Without naming Ernst & Young, the People’s Bank of China last week lashed out at the “overseas accounting firm’s so-called research report” for its “greatly distorted” view of asset quality in the banking system. The firm’s estimate of bad loans not only exceeded the value of China’s foreign-currency reserves — but was also five times larger than the figure the Chinese government publishes.
Ernst & Young said it made genuine errors in its estimate. “I am deeply sorry that in our efforts to release this report, I was unable to detect these errors,” said Jack Rodman, an Ernst & Young official based in Beijing and chief author of the report. But a revised report due out isn’t expected to portray a substantially improved Chinese banking system.
Few analysts these days write off the Chinese banking system as a black hole with half the loans bad, as was common in the late 1990s. But most don’t take Beijing’s assurances of the system’s improved health at face value.
In financial markets, China’s government has been effective in wooing investors. International stock offerings in coming months by Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China are expected to top the $9.2 billion raised by China Construction Bank, the biggest equity offering anywhere in 2005.
Officially, the People’s Bank of China estimates bad loans in its banking system at the end of March were valued at $164 billion, down about 1% from the end of 2005. Three of China’s four largest banks reported that nonperforming loans were 3.8% to 5.4% of total assets.
“There are hidden NPLs there,” said Mei Yan, a bank analyst at Moody’s Investors Service Inc. in Hong Kong. Ms. Yan, who said Moody’s doesn’t release NPL estimates, noted that Beijing makes banks look fit, in part, by keeping a relatively narrow definition of a loan that won’t be repaid.
Source:
Ernst Illustrates Risk to Guessing China’s Bad Debt
By JAMES T. AREDDY
May 16, 2006; Page C4
http://tinyurl.com/l7bhe
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Cat: | Time: 4:45 pm (utc+8) Comments (5)
Stock to Watch — Brookdale Senior Living (BKD)BKD moved to a new high above round-number $40 on nearly eight times average volume. Be aware that this is a very thinly traded, low-float stock.
Brookdale Senior Living, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates senior living facilities in the United States. Its senior living facilities offer residents a supportive home-like setting and assistance with activities of daily living (ADLs), as well as provide licensed skilled nursing services in certain facilities. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
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Trading with the Trend: US Dollar IndexThe daily trend on the US Dollar Index flipped down on April 5th and entered a steeper downtrend following the April 17th gap down.
Knowing that the daily trend is down, it pays to drop to a smaller time frame to find spots to get short. Every countertrend rally on the hourly chart sets up a trade when the hourly downtrend resumes.
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Cat: | Time: 10:35 am (utc+8) Comments (3)
ETF to Watch — iShares Silver Trust (SLV)The new silver ETF began trading on April 28, and it’s already very actively traded quickly making my must-watch list.
The objective of the iShares Silver Trust is for the value of the shares of the iShares Silver Trust to reflect, at any given time, the price of silver owned by the iShares Silver Trust at that time, less the iShares Silver Trust’s expenses and liabilities.
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Stock to Watch — Jones Soda (JSDA)Jones Soda moved to a new high (on a remarkably weak day for the broad market) on over four times average volume. A company that names an energy drink “WhoopAss” clearly understands how to market to kids.
Jones Soda Co. engages in the development, production, marketing, and distribution of beverages primarily in the United States and Canada. Its primary product lines include Jones Soda Co., a premium soda; Jones Naturals, a noncarbonated juice and tea drink; Jones Organics, a ready-to-drink organic tea; and Jones Energy and WhoopAss, citrus energy drinks. The company sells and distributes its products through a network of independent distributors and national retail accounts, as well as through licensing and distribution arrangements. Jones Soda Co. was founded by Peter M. van Stolk in 1986. The company is based in Seattle, Washington.
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Cat: | Time: 7:56 am (utc+8) Comments (4)
Notable New Highs — May 11, 2006Quite a rout today — the new highs list is remarkably short — so the New Lows list is actually more interesting (filled with Homebuilders stocks).
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Cat: | Time: 7:36 am (utc+8) Comments (0)
May 11, 2006
Constructive AmbiguityI got around to reading Ernst & Young’s “Global Nonperforming Loan Report 2006,” which was very informative and well-written. Interesting bits:
Obtaining accurate information about the NPLs in the loan portfolios of Chinese banks is difficult, among other reasons because of the banks’ inconsistent application of loan classification systems, a banking culture that resists openness and accountability, the inherent decentralized operating environment, and regulations that limit banks in resolving problem loans that result in a loss of principal.
The banks’ aggressive lending from 2002 to 2004 has resulted in a potential new wave of NPLs, which eventually could be as high as U.S. $225 billion. These undisclosed loans may include an estimated U.S. $65 billion in real estate loans that we, in an earlier analysis, suggested may be buried in the “special mention” loan category that is not included in computing a bank’s NPL ratios.
After all the transfers and recapitalizations, the big four banks could still have to address NPLs totaling approximately U.S. $358 billion, or more than two times official estimates. Of the U.S. $330 billion transferred to the AMCs as of the end of 2005, the AMCs have disposed of only about U.S. $100 billion, and about U.S. $230 billion still remains on their books.
Apart from the banks and the four AMCs, there are still significant NPLs elsewhere in the financial system, totaling U.S. $323 billion (i.e., in Huida Asset Management Company, the so-called “fifth AMC” established in 2005; state-owned investment holding companies; city commercial banks; and rural credit co-operatives).
Conservatively, we estimate China’s NPL liability from all sources including the banks, AMCs, investment companies, and credit co-operatives at more than U.S. $900 billion, an amount that exceeds its massive foreign exchange reserves.
There are several reasons for the increase. First, better (but still incomplete) information about the dimension of China’s NPL problem is now available. Second, the problem is not limited to the largest banks and AMCs but also extends to other banks, AMCs, state investment companies, credit cooperatives, and other entities. Third, as noted, the banks are believed to have made more bad loans in recent years that have or will turn into future NPLs.
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Cat: | Time: 3:36 pm (utc+8) Comments (4)
Google TrendsGoogle Trends
With Google Trends, you can compare the world’s interest in your favorite topics. Enter up to five topics and see how often they’ve been searched for on Google over time. Google Trends also displays how frequently your topics have appeared in Google News stories, and which geographic regions have searched for them most often.
Sweet. Data nerds of the world rejoice!
- via TraderMike -
UPDATE: Ticker Sense used Google Trends to compare the search “real estate bubble” with the price chart of the S&P Homebuilders Index… check it out.
Also check out Steve Rubel’s 25 Things I Learned on Google Trends
And A nation’s interests? Google tells all, by Anand Giridharadas
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Treating Sticker Prices as a Starting Point for NegotiationsChina’s newest shopping craze: ‘team buying’, by Simon Montlake
Tuangou, or team buying combines the power of the Internet to compare prices with the stealth tactics of the flash mob. Team buyers are driving hard bargains in the world’s hottest economy.
I never do the tuangou thing, but I also never pay retail.
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Cat: | Time: 11:21 am (utc+8) Comments (0)
Stock to Watch — Birch Mountain Resources (BMD)Birch Mountain moved to a new high on nearly three times average volume. The stock has gone sideways for awhile so the breakout bears watching. (BMD is an Albertan Oil Sands play.)
Birch Mountain Resources, Ltd. engages in the exploration of industrial minerals in Canada. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
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