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发表于 2009-3-22 10:45
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Sugar’s Sweet Run Near an EndThe huge move put in by sugar finally got a mention in Barron’s, so I assume the end is near. Trend followers have been long continuously since last June.
Sugar futures (March 2006), Daily Chart
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December 16, 2005
Third Ring Road at 5:30 PMThe other day I promised to take a picture of the traffic on Beijing’s Third Ring Road during rush hour, so here it is. Yes, it’s a crummy shot, and I agree that the traffic isn’t that bad, but today is Friday (when traffic is usually much worse) so I might try to take another picture tonight. The important point I’m trying to make is that a decade ago almost none of these cars were here. (Sales of privately owned family vehicles rose from just 640,000 in 2000 to 3.1 million in 2005.)
This is the eastern part of the Third Ring Road, and I’m looking northeast. (I have a corner office about 20 stories up). The tall building in the upper left of the photo is Jingguang Zhongxin, a very early skyscraper in Beijing. This part of the city used to be almost completely bare except for Jingguang Zhongxin and GuoMao (China World Trade Center), but now there are dozens of tall buildings here, filled with people, many of whom unfortunately choose to drive to work.
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Stock to Watch — 24/7 Real Media (TFSM)24/7 Real Media made my Notable New Highs list yesterday, breaking out on over three times average volume.
“24/7 Real Media, Inc. and its subsidiaries offer a suite of media services, and software products and services for the online advertising needs of Web publishers and advertisers. It offers Web representation, search marketing services, advertisement serving and targeting, analytics, and audience management. The company operates in three segments: Media Solutions, Search Solutions, and Technology Solutions. 24/7 Real Media is headquartered in New York City.”
TFSM did a reverse five-for-one stock split in February 2004, so the reverse-split-adjusted high for the stock, hit back in April 1999, is around $350 a share, and the all-time low is $0.45 (that’s 9 cents a share without the reverse split), which was hit shortly after the 9/11 terrorist attack. Once again, if you bought during the mania you were wiped out, but if you bought at the gloomy depths you are making a fortune.
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December 15, 2005
Stocks to Watch — Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Panera Bread (PNRA)Canadian Natural Resources and Panera Bread both made my Notable New Highs list yesterday.
“Canadian Natural Resources Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, production, marketing, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company’s principal regions of crude oil and natural gas operations are in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, the United Kingdom sector of the North Sea; and Offshore west Africa. As of December 31, 2004, the company’s oil and natural gas reserves include 1,066 MMbbls of crude oil and natural gas liquids and 2,690 Bcf of natural gas. The company was incorporated in 1973 as AEX Minerals Corporation, changed its name to Canadian Natural Resources Limited in 1975, and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.”
I plan to post some pictures of rush hour traffic on the Third Ring Road here in Beijing to drive home (pun intended) the point that everyone should be long-term bullish on energy stocks.
“Panera Bread Company engages in the ownership and franchising of bakery-cafes in the United States. Its bakery-cafes sell fresh baked goods, made-to-order sandwiches and salads, soups, and cafe beverages, including various baked bagels, breads, muffins, scones, rolls, and sweet goods; made-to-order sandwiches on freshly baked breads; custom roasted coffees; and cafe beverages, such as hot or cold espresso and cappuccino drinks. The company’s bakery-cafes are principally located in suburban strip mall and regional mall locations. Its target customers include suburban dwellers and workers. As of October 4, 2005, Panera operated 265 company-owned bakery-cafes and 560 franchise-operated bakery-cafes. The company was organized in 1981 as Au Bon Pain Co., Inc. and changed its name to Panera Bread Company in 1999. Panera is based in Richmond Heights, Missouri.”
I have two words for you, Benjamin: Artisan Bread. Shortly after I sung the praises of Panera in a Chat about Retaurant Stocks last June, the stock price dropped 20% or so (it often happens that way, lol), but folks who stayed the course are happy.
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December 14, 2005
Baby T’s Checkup at 11 MonthsWe took baby in for his regular checkup yesterday and the doctor was very pleased with his growth. T weighed in at 11.2 kilograms (24.69 pounds) and measured in at 77.5 centimeters (30.51 inches), which everyone present considered mighty good. He also has eight teeth (front top and bottom). His flexibility is excellent and although he is not yet walking, he enjoys “cruising,” which means walking around the room supporting himself on various objects (sofas, chairs, coffee tables, his father’s legs, etc.).
He is not yet talking, but he does say babababababa and ohyeahohyeahohyeah, and he will bark at his stuffed animal dogs — wooo woooo! The doctor believes that the current language environment filled with Shanghainese, Beijingese, English, and a sprinkling of Yiddish swear words probably confuses baby, so his language acquisition will be late. We’ll see. As long as he doesn’t end up barking in four languages, I’ll be happy.
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Stocks to Watch — Boeing (BA), Wendy’s (WEN)Boeing and Wendy’s both made my Notable New Highs list yesterday.
“The Boeing Company operates in the aerospace industry worldwide. The Commercial Airplanes segment develops, produces, and markets commercial jet aircraft, as well as provides related support services primarily to the commercial airline industry. This segment’s family of commercial jet aircraft includes the 717 and 737 narrow-body models, as well as the 747, 767,
777, and 787 wide-body models. The IDS segment involves in the research, development, production, modification, and support of military aircraft, helicopters and missiles, space systems, missile defense systems, satellites and satellite launching vehicles, rocket engines, and information and battle management systems. The Boeing Company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.”
We are long-term shareholders of Boeing. The most obvious time to have purchased Boeing in the past five years was following the September 11 terrorist attacks when the stock price fell briefly below $30 a share.
“Wendy’s International, Inc. and its subsidiaries engage in the operation, development, and franchising of a system of quick service and fast casual restaurants. As of June 27, 2004, the company operated 6,535 Old Fashioned Hamburgers restaurants, 2,370 Tim Hortons restaurants, and 305 Baja Fresh Mexican Grill restaurants. Wendy’s International was founded in 1969 by Dave Thomas and is based in Dublin, Ohio.”
I’ve never seen a Wendy’s here in China so they have room to grow. Crappy fast food has universal appeal because there are stupid, lazy people everywhere.
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December 13, 2005
Stocks to Watch — Sify (SIFY), Rediff.com (REDF)Sify and Rediff.com both made my Notable New Highs list yesterday.
“Sify Limited operates as an integrated Internet, network, and electronic commerce services company in India. Its service offerings include corporate network and data services, Internet access services, and online portal and content offerings. The company, formerly known as Satyam Infoway Limited, was organized in 1995. Sify is headquartered in Chennai, India.”
SIFY did a 1 for 4 reverse-split at the depths of the bear market (September 2002) making its split-adjusted all-time high around $450 back in February 2000. So depending on what price you paid, you either love SIFY or (still) hate it.
“Rediff.com India Limited provides online news, information, communication, entertainment, and shopping services focusing on India and the worldwide Indian community. The company was founded in 1996 by Ajit Balakrishnan under the name Rediff Communication Private Limited. It subsequently changed its name to Rediff.com India Limited in 2000. The company is headquartered in Mumbai, India.”
Rediff.com’s price history isn’t as dramatic as Sify’s since they came public in June 2000. REDF fell from its high of $27.75 in June 2000 straight down to $0.21 in October 2002. So right now folks who paid the wrong price are looking forward to breaking even, whereas the buyers at the depths of the bear market are looking at gains of over 100 times their investment. The price you pay matters.
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December 12, 2005
Titanium Metals (TIE) - Possible Top?Titanium Metals (TIE) is frequently on the Notable New Highs list, but I thought last Friday’s action looked a little ominous and decided it deserves a closer look.
“Titanium Metals Corporation produces titanium melted and mill products. The company offers titanium sponge, melted, and mill products for aerospace, industrial, and other applications. The company is based in Denver, Colorado.”
On the weekly chart below, you can see the enormous run the stock has had since the beginning of 2003. Over the last eight weeks or so the price has doubled once again.
Looking at the daily chart below, you can see that last Friday an “outside reversal” bar formed with the volume over five-and-a-half times above average. This isn’t necessarily the end of the world, but it probably means that price will go sideways at best, and may even mean a top of some sort is in place. If you hold TIE, keep this in mind as you do your year-end portfolio rebalancing.
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December 9, 2005
Stocks to Watch — Shanda (SNDA), Powerwave Technologies (PWAV)Shanda is a Notable New Low and Powerwave is a Notable New High, both taken from my list of Stocks to Watch. Yesterday, the Notable New Highs list was packed with stocks from the oil services sector: SLB, RIG, BHI, NBR, BJS. This is no surprise to readers of my November 23 post.
Shanda has been showing up on the NNL list day after day, so I decided to feature it.
“Shanda Interactive Entertainment Limited engages in the development and operation of online games in China. It offers a portfolio of online games, which users play over the Internet. The company’s content offerings primarily consist of online games, including massively multiplayer online role playing games (MMORPGs) and casual games. MMORPGs are action-adventure based, and draw upon martial arts and combat themes. Casual games are session-based, which can be played to a conclusion within a short period of time. Shanda Interactive Entertainment was founded in 1999 by Tianqiao Chen and Danian Chen. The company is based in Shanghai, China.”
Powerwave broke out nicely on double its average volume. I’ve added it to my stocktickr list. (I don’t have time to explain what stocktickr is right now, but solutions for wireless communications networks worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Wireless Communications and Contract Manufacturing. The company is headquartered in Santa Ana, California.”
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