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发表于 2009-3-22 10:43
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January 16, 2006
Stock to Watch — Hydril (HYDL)Hydril broke above $70 on unusual volume last week. The stock has been going sideways for a good long time, so it may bust-a-move higher. (I’ve added HYDL to my list at stocktickr. I have three invitations to join stocktickr; if you’d like one, just email me.) The invites didn’t last long!
“Hydril Company engages in engineering, manufacturing, and marketing premium connection and pressure control products that are used for oil and gas drilling and production worldwide. Hydril was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.”
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Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of January 16, 2006Barron’s costs $50 in Hongkong (HKD), which is about $6.40 (USD). Funniest line in this week’s issue: some fund manager said “we’re relative value — not deep contrarian.” Did that make anyone else laugh out loud or do I have a unique sense of humor? Here are the (lightly edited) bits I found interesting:
“The price of aluminum is up 35% in the past six months.” - James Atwood
“Samsung thinks demand for flash chips will triple this year.” - Leslie Norton
“Europe depends on Russia for a quarter of its natural gas imports …. Gazprom shares rose about 160% in rubles in 2005.” - Anna Raff
“A unit of Hong-Kong based Integrated Display Technology, which has shares traded on the Singapore and Hong Kong stock exchanges, Oregon Scientific is the U.S. leader in the high-tech home weather business.” - Jay Palmer
“To date, Apple has sold some 42 million iPods, 32 million in 2005. Apple has also sold 850 million songs on iTunes, which sounds like a big number but represents just 20 per iPod. Apple now has an 83% share of the market for portable music players.” - Eric Savitz
“Natural gas has plunged 22% this year and is down 46% in a month …. Coming into the year, the American Association of Individual Investors weekly poll showed only 29% bulls. In the same week, the Investors Intelligence survey of investment-newsletter writers showed 55.7% bulls and the Market Vane gauge of adviser sentiment toward stocks was at a lofty 70%.” - Michael Santoli
“The last of the 103 operating nuclear reactors built in the U.S. was the Tennessee Valley Authority’s Watts Bar reactor, opened in June 1996. The nuclear plants are in 31 states. Vermont — the Green Mountain State — turns out to be the poster state for the industry, getting 73.7% of its electric power from nuclear energy. It’s followed by South Carolina (54.5%), Connecticut (54.4%), New Jersey (51.9%), New Hampshire(43%) and New York (29%).” - Jim McTague
“While the Vanguard Retirement Target 2035 (VTTHX) — geared to investors in their mid-30s — has a 76% allocation to stocks and 24% bonds, the AllianceBernstein study, in contrast, recommends a 100% stock allocation for a 35-year-old. That falls to 93% at age 45, 79% at 55, 65% at 65 and 45% at 75. Meanwhile, T. Rowe Price Retirement 2035 (TRRJX) has 93% allocated to stocks, with the rest in bonds.” - Lawrence Strauss
“The difficulty with legacy costs is really the unintended consequence of two great technological achievements: Long life and high productivity. Industrial companies can produce the same or more output with fewer workers and those workers, once pensioned off, live longer to collect more benefits …. Since 1990, the percentage of companies offering defined-benefit plans has fallen from 83% to 45%.” - Thomas Donlan
“The largest U.S. exports are agriculture and entertainment.” - Mario Gabelli
“The consumer has only about 14% of his income dedicated to fixed payments.” - John Neff
“About 45% of Treasuries are owned by non-U.S. investors. The largest buyers by far in the last year have been investors based in the U.K. One reason could be U.K. pension accounting, which requires that long-term pension liabilities be matched with long-term pension assets. The other possibility is that petrodollars are being recycled. A lot of the OPEC nations have investment offices in London. This also may help explain a conundrum — why energy prices went up, yet bond yields went down. Some of these nations have been parking their money in Treasuries, and now may be thinking about other places to put it …. Emerging economies use two to three times as much energy per unit of GDP as the developed economies. If energy prices stay high or move higher, these economies will see more dislocation from it than we will.” - Abby Cohen
“U.S. investors should accelerate their exposure to non-dollar stocks, because the dollar as a currency is doomed …. The U.S., in terms of its wealth and strong currency policy, probably is at an apex. That’s not to say its prospects decline, but they decline relative to faster-growing economies, namely Asian economies …. Some would suggest that Japanese monetary policy — zero interest rates — and the Japanese carry trade that allowed people to borrow at zero and reinvest elsewhere at higher rates was the nexus for lower yields on a global basis …. Munis are the only bond-asset group that foreign investors haven’t bought. They won’t touch them because the tax-free advantages don’t make sense to them. So yields on munis, especially on the long side, have not gone down like Treasuries. You buy what others haven’t bought. It is the Buffett philosophy applied to municipal bonds.” - Bill Gross
“China is the second-largest user of oil in the world, and India is expanding rapidly …. China gets 90% of its oil from the Middle East …. The surprise for 2006 is the dollar will resume its downtrend …. I’m still recommending Asian assets, including currencies …. That is precisely the nature of a bubble. It is concentrated in a relatively narrow sector. The 2000 bubble in the stock market was concentrated in TMT [telecom, media and technology]. There wasn’t a bubble in U.S. Steel or copper stocks or oil. The apologists for the housing-market bubble in the U.S. always point out that it is concentrated in a few markets, but that has always been the case. I don’t buy that if the bubble in California, Florida and Texas deflates, it won’t have an impact on the economy …. The U.S. still accounts for over 50% of world stock-market capitalization. Japan is maybe 10%, and the rest of Asia, including China, India and Vietnam, is maybe 4%. It doesn’t take a genius to see why global managers are overweight Asia, for instance, and underweight the U.S. All the Middle Eastern markets went up in the order of 100% last year. Russia was up about 80%. Even Latin American markets went up 50% to 80%. In Asia, many markets are lower than they were in 1990 …. Capital spending in China is almost as high as in the U.S. China has a high savings rate and invests in new plants and equipment, infrastructure and so forth. China has a capital-spending bubble, whereas the U.S. has an asset bubble. The Chinese will buy some goods from the U.S., but mostly they buy from Europe. Aside from Ralph Lauren, Asians buy luxury goods from Europe …. China’s yearly per-capita consumption of oil is 1.7 barrels. U.S. per capita consumption is 27 barrels. Korea’s and Japan’s are 17 barrels. The U.S. has 740 vehicles per 1,000 people. In China there are three, and in India there’s one. Demand is going up, and prices will be much, much higher than they are today …. The notion of a savings glut is economic sophism. The cause of the savings glut is the growing U.S. trade and current-account deficits that feed liquidity into the world, leading to surpluses in Asia. Bernanke calls it a savings glut. It’s really a liquidity glut coming from the U.S. as a result of easy-money policies.” - Marc Faber
Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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January 11, 2006
Away Until Next MondayI have to go to Hongkong today on “bidness,” but I’ll be back by next Monday. If you need to find me (and buy me dinner), I’ll be at the Four Seasons.
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Stocks to Watch — Apple Computer (AAPL)Here’s a monthly chart of Apple showing the (split-adjusted) prices at key times over the last decade. Folks who paid the “wrong” price at the peak of the bubble are doing just fine now assuming they hung in there. And those who bought during the depths of the bear market are
making a fortune.
“Apple Computer, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of personal computers and related software, services, peripherals, and networking solutions worldwide. It also offers a line of portable digital music players, accessories, and services. Apple Computer
was co-founded by Steven P. Jobs in 1976. The company is headquartered in Cupertino, California.”
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January 10, 2006
Stocks to Watch - for Tuesday, January 10As a new feature I think I’ll post some quick observations from the Stocks to Watch lists every day:
- Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) - Possible double top at $45?
- Lots of strength in the Homebuilders - KB Home (KBH), Lennar (LEN), Toll Brothers (TOL), and look at old Centex (CTX), rapidly approaching a new high.
- LightPath (LPTH) looks like a day trader’s delight: 3.4MM share float and nearly 500 times average volume - zing!
- Notable Highs list has some nice looking breakouts, namely Corning (GLW) and Lexar Media (LEXR). Nice to see Trident Microsystems (TRID) (which I featured when
it broke out last month) making new highs. - Herbie Greenberg gnashes his teeth as both Hansen (HANS) and OmniVision (OVTI) hit new highs. Reality Check needs an Ego Check.
- Notable Lows list is super-duper short. Hmmmm.
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Stock to Watch — Focus Media (FMCN)Focus Media is a business I’m all too familiar with since they place around Beijing (and the
rest of China for that matter) these flat-panel screens showing ads. Any place you are captive (elevators, lobbies, checkout lines) you run into these awful things. The good news
is that I’ve figured out how to disable the screens in the lobbies of both my apartment building and my office. I’m looking forward to the day an enraged citizenry takes my lead
and starts smashing these execrable devices en masse.
“Focus Media Holding Limited, a holding company, operates an out-of-home advertising network using audiovisual flat-panel displays in the People’s Republic of China. The company’s flat-panel audiovisual displays are placed in elevators and lobbies of commercial office buildings, retail chain stores, beauty parlours, banks, pharmacies, hotels, and airports. As of June 30, 2005, it had 35,710 display units. Focus Media Holding was founded by Jason Nanchun Jiang in 2003 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.”
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January 9, 2006
Stock to Watch: bebe stores (BEBE)bebe stores (BEBE) made the Notable New Lows list last Friday. BEBE was a great favorite of momentum traders not long ago, but then the trend reversed and the stock has just collapsed. Specialty retail is a tough business and one that I’ve never liked. (A pair of fancy jeans is only $198 at bebe.)
“bebe stores, inc. engages in the design, development, and production of women抯 apparel and accessories. As of July 2, 2005, the company operated 214 stores, including 166 bebe stores, 31 BEBE SPORT stores, and 17 bebe outlet stores. These stores are located in the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Canada. In addition, the company operates an online store at www.bebe.com. The company was founded by Manny Mashouf in 1976 and is headquartered in Brisbane, California.”
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Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of January 9, 2006Does anyone else find the term “price point” annoying? Just say price! An annoying redundancy I recently read was “mathematical odds.” What other kinds of odds are there? Just say odds! Here are the (lightly edited) bits I found interesting in this week’s issue of Barron’s:
“The Dow Jones AIG Commodity Index gained 17.5% during 2005. Commodity-index-fund managers have about $70 billion to invest, up from $10 billion just five years ago.” — Susan Schwendener
“Rydex has $13.7 billion in assets in its 51 funds, while ProFund oversees $7.7 billion in its 95 funds (with 54 available to individual investors).” — Suzanne McGee
“A record $170 billion poured into commercial-mortgage-backed securities in 2005, topping by more than 70% the previous record, set in ‘04.” — John Levy
“Apple was the best tech stock in 2005, rising 123% …. none of the Apple bulls consider the cellphone a serious competitor to the iPod …. Verizon Wireless has almost 50 million customers and the company expects music to become as standard a feature on cellphones as cameras.” — Bill Alpert
“The first currency exchange-traded fund — the Euro Currency Trust (ticker: FXE), which tracks the euro’s exchange rate against the dollar — began trading last month. In addition, EverBank (www.everbank.com) offers money-market accounts and certificates of deposit denominated in an array of currencies (including the Icelandic krona, which yields over 8%) and gold.” — Theresa Carey, Kathy Yakal
“One area Mutual Series sees value is forest products; its holdings there include Potlatch (PCH), Weyerhaeuser (WY) and International Paper (IP). Each owns extensive timberland, which Peter Langerman thinks is being dramatically undervalued by the stock market. Timber properties are both long-lived and renewable. They also provide steady, long-term returns generally uncorrelated with securities’ returns… smart investors like the Harvard Endowment Fund have been buying into timberland of late.” — Jonathan Laing
“Fama and French focus on small stocks, rather than large ones, and value, rather than growth. Both approaches, they assert, provide excess returns. (They define value stocks as those with a high book value-to-price ratio, a variation on low price-to-book.) …. Where DFA does invest energy is in aggressively seeking to buy positions by acquiring large blocks of shares at negotiated prices below the market …. ‘you can’t distinguish professional money managers from the universe of orangutans,’ says David Booth.” — Eric Savitz
“Wal-Mart waited years after DVDs became prevalent before offering them aggressively, having waited until they reached prices suitable for its mass customer base. Flat-screen TVs got there in around a year. Wal-Mart’s market share in consumer electronics is estimated to be less than 20%. Wal-Mart began selling product warranties for the first time Oct. 1 and is dramatically undercutting Best Buy and others by pricing them as much as two-thirds off the prevailing prices. Some 90% of typical warranty sales go to the bottom line, and this makes up an outsized portion of electronics retailers’ profits.” — Michael Santoli
“Of the 2,640 companies that venture capitalists initially backed that year [2000], 1098, or 36%, still were private as of early November 2005. (A mere 33 were public, while the rest had been acquired or gone out of business.) …. Vonage Holdings — a provider of voice over Internet protocol, or VoIP — which has raised more than $400 million of equity financing and $250 million of debt. Vonage, based in Holmdel, N.J., is expected to file for an IPO that could raise as much as $600 million, which would value the company at $2 billion.” — Russ Garland and Brian Gormley
“Ninety percent of your focus has to be on buying the bonds at the right price point, the right time. And if you do that, the sell side will take care of itself. These are bonds; they are not stocks, they do mature. As their credit improves, their cost of finance goes down, they refinance …. I’ve been asked a number of times in recent weeks, with this blah scenario for bonds — and it is blah, although the returns go up over time — what could go wrong. And I think peace is what you have got to worry about. In addition, you have two more things you worry about these days, which are weather and water.” — Dan Fuss, interviewed by Randall Forsyth
“GM’s equity holders probably would be wiped out or badly hurt in a bankruptcy while bondholders could come out whole, recovering values well above current trading levels. Several GM bond issues were down 40% or more last year, nearly as much as the stock …. GM, unlike most companies, sold a lot of debt to retail investors and those issues, as well as three large convertible bonds, are traded like stocks on the New York Stock Exchange. (Details of GM’s Retail and Convertible Bonds) These bonds were sold at $25 each and now trade at a deep discount to their face value. General Motors Acceptance Corp., GM’s giant finance arm, also has sold several retail-targeted bonds. (ticker: GKM)” — Andrew Bary
“Indian casinos exploit the antiquated legal pretense that tribes are independent nations. Federal and state laws on Indian gambling are usually justified as promoting economic development on reservations. But the operations have become a wide-open industry, with more than 400 casinos operated by 226 tribes and bands in 28 states amassing revenues of about $20 billion a year. Overseeing this industry, attempting to keep it safe from corruption and the influence of organized crime, the National Indian Gaming Commission had 79 employees and a budget of $9.3 million at the last report, which covered the year 2003 …. If we had never imagined that most of the money spent to promote causes in Washington never gets counted officially, our eyes would be open now. Compare the four tribes’ $52 million payments to Abramoff and friends with the $7.1 million that all tribes recorded in 2004 as official contributions to Congressional candidates and campaign committees, and the $17 million that all tribes recorded as lobbying expenditures.” — Thomas Donlan
“… consumers racked up 17.5% more on their Visa cards during the holiday season than a year earlier [2004] …. At Circuit City, comparable-store sales of TV sets posted double digit growth, led by triple-digit growth in flat-panel TVs. Sales of liquid crystal display and plasma TV sets posted triple-digit sales growth at Best Buy, even as sales of tube TVs suffered double digit declines …. (Best Buy also reported double-digit growth in sales of MP3 players) …. this year, consumers clamored for high definition TVs …. 5.2 million LCD TVs were shipped in the third quarter globally, up 29.5% from the second quarter and 137% from a year earlier …. worldwide LCD-TV shipments probably totaled 19.6 million in 2005, versus 8.9 million in 2004 …. The reason TV sales have boomed is that prices are down 50% over the past 12 months …. 26-inch LCD TVs were priced at about $1,300 over Christmas …. Shares of Samsung Electronics rose 46% in 2005 and shot above $100 billion in market value this year, making it Asia’s fourth-largest company after Toyota Motor, PetroChina, and Mitsubishi UFJ Holdings…. Both Samsung and LG Philips started mass production on new, seventh-generation fabrication plants, which will produce panels 40 inches and larger, considered the sweet spot for TV home theaters. Sharp, the world’s largest manufacturer of LCD TVs, will start eighth-generation operations in October 2006, for 45-inch panels.” — Leslie Norton
Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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January 6, 2006
Stock to Watch: True Religion Apparel (TRLG)True Religion Apparel (TRLG) made the Notable New Highs list yesterday, moving to a new high on nearly six times average volume. You can see that the stock has been going sideways for a good long while, so it might bust-a-move higher. If you put some patches and unique stitching on low-rider jeans, then people will pay $372 for a pair. (The Chairman shakes his head and chuckles.)
“True Religion Apparel, Inc., through its wholly owned subsidiary, Guru Denim, Inc., engages in the design, development, manufacture, marketing, distribution, and sale of fashion jeans and other apparel. Its products include jeans, skirts, denim jackets, and tops. The company also operated a retail store in Manhattan Beach, California, as of December 5, 2005. The company is based in Los Angeles, California.”
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January 5, 2006
Looking Over the Stocks to Watch ListsI don’t want to toot my own horn, but reviewing my Stocks to Watch lists every day is worth your while. It takes about a minute or so to scan through the names on the list and when you’re done you have a very good sense of what’s going on in the market. Taking today’s lists as an example, let’s see what’s going on:
- Notable New Highs - I see Bema Gold (BGO), Freeport McMoRan (FCX), Phelps Dodge (PD), DRDGOLD (DROOY), which makes me think the metals are still very strong. And then there’s Schwab (SCHW - recently moved to Nasdaq from the NYSE (good for them)), and
optionsXpress (OXPS), which makes me think the brokers are doing fine. - Usual Suspects - I see a ton of Oil Service stocks here, with the HOLDR (OIH) at the top of the list… along with Schlumberger (SLB), Nat’l Oilwell (NOV), Noble (NE), and Nabors (NBR) all at or near new highs. So I know Oil Service is still strong (this is no surprise to anyone who read the interview with Matt Simmons in this week’s Barron’s, which I briefly excerpted earlier this week).
- Notable New Lows - Gee, that list looks super short… what can that mean?
- Random Observations - There’s Google (GOOG) at $445 a share. I see a bunch of stuff moving up or breaking out on unusual volume: Pixar (PIXR),BMC Software (BMC), F5 Networks (FFIV), Peabody Energy (BTU) (featured yesterday), eResearch (ERES), HealthExtras (HLEX),
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Psychiatric Solutions (PSYS), TTM Technologies (TTMI), NVIDIA (NVDA), Dynamic Materials (BOOM), Zoran (ZRAN), Cummins (CMI)…. not exactly looking like a lot of weakness out there.
I think you can see the value in taking two minutes out of your day to look over the lists. They’re free and always will be.
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