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楼主: hefeiddd

一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 17:18 | 显示全部楼层
Bundchen, Avoiding Dollars, is No Dumb BlondeSupermodel Bundchen Joins Hedge Fund Managers Dumping Dollars
“Gisele Bundchen is insisting that she be paid in almost any currency but the U.S. dollar … When Bundchen, 27, signed a contract in August to represent Pantene hair products, she demanded payment in euros … She’ll also get euros for the deal she reached last October with Dolce & Gabbana SpA in Milan to promote the Italian designer’s new fragrance, The One.”
I’m with Gisele, but the US dollar’s fall should reverse or at least slow here for a bit. You can see from the weekly chart of the Dollar Index that it’s pretty far stretched. When you get articles where everyone (unsexy billionaires Gross and Buffett, semi-sexy centimillionaire Jimmy Rogers, and very sexy centimillionaire Bundchen) is negative on the dollar, then you should be looking for a short-term bottom at least.

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Cat:   | Time: 10:46 am (utc+8) Comments (9)

November 3, 2007
Long Clean (Google), Short Clutter (Yahoo)Here’s a nice retrospective look at Yahoo’s homepage versus Google’s, 1996-2005.

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And here’s how YHOO’s stock price has performed relative to GOOG’s (since Google came public in August 2004). This is a comparison I’ve long liked to make — June 20, 2007 | October 11, 2006.

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The Peril of Moving Beyond ParityI just learned from a post at reddit that xe.com, “The World’s Favorite Currency Site,” has added an explanation to their Quick Cross Rates table that reads:
“This rate means that the CAD is worth more than the USD.”
Hilarious!

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Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — November 2, 2007



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November 2, 2007
Bill from Visit to Pediatrician in BeijingToddler T is sick (with bronchitis it turns out) which means I can post another slice of life post. Here’s the bill from a visit to the doctor this morning. The top part is the lab fee: $39; the middle part is the medicine fee (Cefaclor — “Ceclor” brand (Lilly), an antibiotic): $15.36; the bottom part is the flat doctor fee: $66.67. Grand total $121.03 Our private insurance will pick up 100% of the tab.
Zero wait time (we made an appointment); competent and efficient staff; a very clean, pleasant, quiet environment — private health care in the People’s Republic.

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Crocs CracksA lot of recent buyers find themselves now trapped underwater in CROX, creating what is known as “overhead resistance.”

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November 1, 2007
Reward Doubled for Old Investment NewslettersThanks to the folks who sent me old newsletters, but I still need one PDF issue for each of the remaining five newsletters, and have upped the reward to $10:
Remember, I’m not looking for the most recent issue; any old issue will do as long as it’s complete. (Someone cleverer than me could probably use Google to find a copy of each of them, no? Is $10 worth one’s while to photocopy and scan an issue from the local library?) Don’t send me a copy immediately since someone else may have already done so and claimed the ten dineros. Just email me to tell me you’ve got the goods and then we’ll do the deal.
Thanks again for your help!
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 17:19 | 显示全部楼层
Correction IntensificationTypically crazy range around the Fed announcement, smashing and dashing the best-laid plans of everyone. I’ve bolded the bits of the statement that matter … the rest is bullshit as usual — the Fed guys are big on nominalizations, revealing their academic (BS artists) background.
“Economic growth was solid in the third quarter, and strains in financial markets have eased somewhat on balance. However, the pace of economic expansion will likely slow in the near term, partly reflecting the intensification of the housing correction. Today’s action, combined with the policy action taken in September, should help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and promote moderate growth over time.”

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Cat:   | Time: 11:02 am (utc+8) Comments (2)


Crude Will Hit $100 No ProblemoThe target for the hourly long in crude is $99.72 (close enough to $100 for government work).
In related news: China Raises Domestic Prices for Gasoline, Diesel, Jet Fuel
“To ‘guarantee domestic refined oil supply and promote energy conservation,’ gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices will rise 500 yuan ($67) per metric ton starting today, the National Development and Reform Commission said in a statement posted on its Web site yesterday.”
Doesn’t matter … Beijing’s roads are absolutely clogged, price be damned. I dread taking a taxi today because the cabbie will no doubt be in a foul mood (fouler than usual anyway).

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October 31, 2007
Federal Funds Implied Probability (Update)The options are now showing a 72.9% chance that the Fed will cut to 4.50%, up from 65.8% last week. (The futures show 94%).

Click to enlarge (Source: Bloomberg)
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Cat:   | Time: 11:33 am (utc+8) Comments (2)


Near-term Upside Potential Caution for CrudeGoldman Says `Take Profits’ After Crude Hits Record
“Goldman said it was closing its long positions in New York oil futures. Oil has gained 51 percent this year as hedge funds and other large speculators increased bets on rising prices. Net-long positions in New York crude futures in the week ended Aug. 3 jumped to the highest in more than a decade.”
So Goldman was a seller above $92 … makes sense when you look at the chart. The day trading folks I deal with have all shifted short in Crude, but they can turn on a dime so don’t read too much into it. Remind me next time I pick a top to say I’m just counseling “near-term upside potential caution.”

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October 30, 2007
Business and Life are Built upon Successful MediocrityAn amusingly dated (and in some ways, deeply depressing) article, Why I Never Hire Brilliant Men, written in 1924. These are the five things the author, a wholesale grocery magnate, looked for in the men he hired:
  • Has he good health?
  • Has he saved some money?
  • Does he talk and write effectively?
  • Does he finish what he starts?
  • Is he courageous?
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Shameless Name DroppingI went down to my club to exercise after lunch (I eat a very light lunch of tofu and wood ear). Who did I run into down there but the King of Jordan. Or I should say one of his bodyguards. One of the four bodyguards surrounding him. They were all smaller than me but looked very fit and motivated. Plus there were four of them. Anyway, I had the presence of mind to call out, “Yo Abdullah, wazzzup?” No one seemed amused, but they left me alone. I wear glasses so I must be harmless.
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Seeing the Blindingly Obvious in a Moment of ClarityLongish profile of Ospraie Management’s Dwight Anderson
“[In 2006 Anderson’s] $250 million Point Fund… plunged 29 percent in the first five months of the year after a series of wrong-way bets on metal futures, forcing Ospraie to close it down. None of Anderson’s funds carries much leverage, and that helped the flagship Ospraie Fund survive despite its 19 percent loss in the same period.
‘The fact that I had a horrible quarter is a statistical probability, and we had always told people there is that possibility,’ Anderson says. ‘We do everything that we can to manage the risk, and I think we’re better at it today than we were a year ago.’”
A statistical probability, eh?
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Crude Climb Continues to ContinueA look at the 30-minute crude chart … trend traders have caught a big move these last several days but I have a feeling that price will soon fall below the trailing stop, currently just under $92.


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October 29, 2007
Rather Late Than Early Buying FinancialsCitigroup Dividend, Falling Shares Make Bank Stocks Unbeatable, by Michael Patterson
“The only other time in the past two decades when banks’ dividend yields surged more was in 1990 and 1991, in the wake of the collapse of almost 1,000 U.S. savings and loans.
The dividend yield for Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America, which is currently 5.33 percent, climbed to 7.55 percent on Oct. 26, 1990. Shares of the biggest U.S. bank by market value more than doubled over the next year, four times the S&P 500’s 26 percent gain. At Wells Fargo, the fourth- largest U.S. bank, the yield jumped to 5.5 percent on Sept. 28, 1990. The San Francisco-based lender soared 120 percent the following year, compared with a 26 percent advance in the S&P 500. Wells Fargo’s current indicated yield stands at 3.59 percent.
Financial stocks as a group jumped 44 percent in 1991 as the Federal Reserve cut the target interest rate for overnight loans between banks to 4 percent from 7 percent to pull the U.S. economy out of recession.”
And Citigroup was a split-adjusted $1.60 a share back in 1990….
I was early rather than late when I bought a ton of financials back in August, and I’m sitting on some pretty large losses now (especially in WM). I thought they were cheap then, and obviously think they’re a lot cheaper now. Bargains can become bigger bargains, alas. I’m not day trading these stocks, I plan to hold them for many years, and I’m not overly worried (though if dividends get slashed that would definitely disturb me). I’m sitting tight.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 17:20 | 显示全部楼层
October 29, 2007
Rufiyaa Times for the US DollarDollar’s Demise Can Be Seen Even in the Maldives, by William Pesek
“These things start out slowly, and in recent months I have had similar experiences [of merchants refusing payment in dollars] from Mexico to Vietnam. In markets, restaurants, taxis and tourist shops that long accepted dollars, many are opting for local currency.”
One look at the ten-year weekly chart of the US Trade Weighted (Major Currency) Dollar Index explains why these small merchants are no fools. This Dollar Index has fallen 35% since January 2002.
(Do you guys like these pop-out charts or do you find them annoying? Keep ‘em or dump ‘em?)


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October 28, 2007
Francis Cabrel - La fille qui m’accompagneIt has also been awhile since I posted an mp3 … here’s a live version of Francis Cabrel singing La fille qui m’accompagne — maybe best translated simply as My Girl (better translations welcome).
Francis Cabrel - La fille qui m’accompagne (6.3 MB .mp3)
Elle parle comme l’eau des fontaines
Comme les matins sur la montagne
Elle a les yeux presque aussi clairs
Que les murs blancs du fond de l’Espagne
Le bleu nuit de ses rêves m’attire
Même si elle connaît les mots qui déchirent
J’ai promis de ne jamais mentir
À la fille qui m’accompagne
Au fond de ses jeux de miroirs
Elle a emprisonné mon image
Et même quand je suis loin le soir
Elle pose ses mains sur mon visage
J’ai brûlé tous mes vieux souvenirs
Depuis qu’elle a mon cœur en point de mire
Et je garde mes nouvelles images
Pour la fille avec qui je voyage
On s’est juré les mots des enfants modèles
On se tiendra toujours loin des tourbillons géants
Elle prendra jamais mon cœur pour un hôtel
Je dirai les mots qu’elle attend
Elle sait les îles auxquelles je pense
Et l’autre moitié de mes secrets
Je sais qu’une autre nuit s’avance
Lorsque j’entends glisser ses colliers
Un jour je bâtirai un empire
Avec tous nos instants de plaisirs
Pour que plus jamais rien ne m’éloigne
De la fille qui m’accompagne
On s’est juré les mots des enfants modèles
On se tiendra toujours loin des tourbillons géants
Je prendrai jamais son cœur pour un hôtel
Elle dira les mots que j’attends
Elle sait les îles auxquelles je pense
Et l’autre moitié de mes délires
Elle sait déjà qu’entre elle et moi
Plus y a d’espace et moins je respire
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US Dollar Already Lost Reserve Currency Status Among GamblersHaven’t been playing much poker recently but I went online tonight for a tournament and was surprised to see that all buy-ins and prize money are now denominated in euros. My account, long filled with old dollar winnings, is now quoted in euros! How about them apples! How long before we see crude oil, gold, etc. quoted in euros instead of dollars? STAY SHORT USD.

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October 27, 2007
Last Dozen Books Read (III)Been awhile since I posted my “Recently Read” list, and that’s because I haven’t been reading much recently. I haven’t watched a movie in probably six months either. (The last thing I saw was Little Miss Sunshine which I didn’t like — they were trying too hard to be cute and quirky and I hate it when it’s forced like that). I start many books and finish few, so it means a lot if it’s listed here (I didn’t give up on it).

The Empty Hours, by Ed McBain — three short 87th Precinct novels in this volume. Not bad, not great — they’re from 1960, ‘61, ‘62 and I think the 87th Precinct stories got better over time. McBain can be hit or miss, but he’s usually very good.



Void Moon, by Michael Connelly — not a detective Harry Bosch book … this is a story about a high-tech woman burglar, not bad, not great, very violent in parts, bummed me out in some ways, hard to explain why it depressed me — certainly doesn’t glamorize crime or criminals.



Out of Sight, by Elmore Leonard — I really like Elmore Leonard though in some ways with his books, you’ve read one, you’ve read ‘em all. Out of Sight was made into a good movie (Clooney & J. Lo) which I recommend, though they Hollywood-ified the ending completely (the book’s ending is both realistic and tragic — no Hollywood movie is allowed to end this way).



The Talented Mr. Ripley, by Patricia Highsmith — I never read books written by women, but this is a “classic” and it wasn’t bad (took me awhile to finish it). Mr. Ripley could pull it off in the 1950s, but today his switcheroo would last about 10 seconds.



The High Window, by Raymond Chandler — Love Chandler, can never get enough of his stuff. My “Favorite Lines” post for The High Window.



Cadillac Jukebox, by Jame Lee Burke — my first James Lee Burke book and probably my last. It wasn’t terrible but I just didn’t get into it at all.



The Lady in the Lake, by Raymond Chandler — a rare case where I figured out the mystery instantly (I’m usually pretty thick). My “Favorite Lines” post for The Lady in the Lake.



The Little Sister, by Raymond Chandler — still on the Chandler kick. My “Favorite Lines” post for The Little Sister.



The Last Coyote, by Michael Connelly — I like Michael Connelly’s Harry Bosch character a lot. Connelly can write well; he has great pacing.



The Bombing Officer, by Jerome Doolittle — The bureaucracy, corruption, incompetence, stupidity and tragedy of war all exposed in this short book.
(The Last Dozen Books Read series.)
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Cat:   | Time: 2:48 pm (utc+8) Comments (6)


Trading Guru 101Here are the simple steps you can take if you want to be appear to be a trading guru:
1) Pick the single most directional day the market has seen in the last two months (Oct. 19),
2) Miraculously get on the right side of the market (short, duh),
3) During a 35 point plunge, successfully scalp out a couple of S&P points while risking a couple of S&P points (1:1 risk to reward, yeah!),
4) Write a blog post filled with pretty charts and a cleverly edited chat transcript showcasing your keen real-time insights from throughout the day,
5) Appear to be a brilliant trader (well you are one, aren’t you?),
6) After duping a gullible and uninformed public, secretly return to your soul-crushing day job at the office (this is how you actually pay the bills when you’re not playing guru).

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TGIF (IX)



(Another in the TGIF series)
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October 26, 2007
$55 Offered for Old Investment NewslettersI am interested in getting one PDF issue of each of the following newsletters:
I’m not looking for the most recent issue; any old issue will do as long as it’s complete. Don’t send me a copy immediately since someone else may have already done so and claimed the five smackeroos. Just email me to tell me you’ve got the goods and then we’ll do the deal.
Thanks for your help!
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Hourly CrudeA look at Crude as it trades around $91. The purple dashed line is the “stop” level for shorts taken based on the Sequential countdown, i.e. if you shorted Crude anticipating a trend reversal after the recent 13 count, then you should be prepared to cover this short (at a loss) when price trades above the level marked by the purple dashed line.

Click to enlarge (Hourly Crude)
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October 25, 2007
Inscrutable Businesses at Unreasonable PricesBuffett Says Investors Should Be `Cautious’ on China
“We never buy stocks when we see prices soaring. We buy stocks because we’re confident of the company’s growth. People should be cautious when they see prices rising. If you understand a business and buy at a reasonable price, there’s no risk. We’ve never realized a loss because we understand the businesses that we buy in.'’
I gave up counseling “caution” about 3,000 Index points ago. You can’t do battle with the combination of animal spirits and captive capital.
(And what’s this about “never realizing a loss,” Warren? Selective memory, old age, hubris? Which is it?)
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Longtop Financial Technologies Limited IPOCommenter Pete hipped me to the Longtop Financial Technologies IPO. Can you guys share what website you use to stay on top of IPOs? What do you think is the best one? Thanks.

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 17:21 | 显示全部楼层
October 24, 2007
Federal Funds Implied ProbabilityNice screen which uses Fed Funds futures and options data to graph expectations for the Target Rate. It’s now showing a 65.8% chance of a move to 4.50% — quite a change from last week’s expectations.

Click to enlarge (Source: Bloomberg)
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October 23, 2007
Top 25 Brands in ChinaThis is an old list that appeared in the June 5, 2006 Chinese edition of Fortune. I love lists and brand rankings don’t change too much over time so I thought I’d post it (homegrown Chinese brands are in bold):
  • BMW
  • Microsoft
  • Intel
  • Mercedes Benz
  • Coca Cola
  • IBM
  • Haier
  • Nokia
  • Wuliangye
  • Kweichou Moutai
  • Airbus
  • Porsche
  • Audi
  • Lenovo
  • Motorola
  • Wal-Mart
  • Boeing
  • Google
  • Tongrentang
  • Tsingtao
  • Pepsi
  • Siemens
  • Sony
  • Nike
  • General Motors
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Seeking Safety in Short-term SecuritiesSIV Shock, Inflation Make U.S. Treasuries Unbeatable
“Two-year notes returned 7.9 percent in 2001, including reinvested interest, the most since 1995. Ten-year Treasuries handed investors 4.3 percent that year.”
I couldn’t find a yield chart for the two-year note to save my life (anyone know the symbol?), but here’s a chart of the five-year yield. Check out that slide from the high on June 13th at 5.241% to the September 10th low at 3.955%. That’s some serious “fright” to quality. Elliott Wave fans will recognize the “textbook” A-B-C retracement during September/October. Bond traders should be thriving on this volatility.

Click to enlarge (Daily chart, Five-Year Note Yield)
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October 21, 2007
Proprietary Digital Learning DevicesNoah Education (NED) just came public… I don’t know anything about them but I thought I’d mention it since it’s apparently another way besides New Oriental to play the China / education theme.

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October 20, 2007
Twenty Years Later, Putting the Crash in PerspectiveUgly day of trading on October 19, 2007 — the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.6%. Twenty years ago on October 19, 1987 the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 22.6% in one day. This is what the chart would look like if the DJIA dropped 22.6% last Friday. You have to put things in perspective. ;-)

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October 19, 2007
TGIF (VIII)



(Another in the TGIF series)
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Crude Climb ContinuesYes, crude traded above $90 a barrel, $90.02 to be exact.

Click to enlarge (30-minute first month generic crude future)
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After-hours GOOGBloomberg’s charting has improved dramatically over the years, but the after hours view still kind of stinks (Symbol GIP POST — pre-open is Symbol GIP PRE). Much better to feed the Bloomberg data into Metastock and have a more complete picture. (Does anyone know of a solution besides RT Soft’s BBadapter?)

Click to enlarge (Google (GOOG) after-hours action)
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Que Surpresa!So Buffett revealed that the Brazilian real is the mystery currency that he’s been long. (Makes perfect sense when you think about it.)
(Apparently this interview was on the new Fox Business News channel… be nice if they had the clip posted on their website so I could watch it … when are these dummies going to learn that these video clips are incredibly valuable and should immediately be posted to the Net? Think of the traffic they are passing up.)

Click to enlarge (Weekly five year chart of Brazilian real)
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October 18, 2007
Overvalued Here, Overvalued There, Overvalued EverywhereChinese Shares in U.S. Rise Most in 6 Years on Arbitrage Study
“The USX China Index, which tracks U.S.-traded shares of 74 mainland companies, jumped 8.3 percent, the biggest advance since April 2001 … China Petroleum, also known as Sinopec, soared 16 percent on the New York Stock Exchange. The stock traded at 18 times estimated earnings, compared with a multiple of 36 in Shanghai. The company’s unit Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co. jumped 17 percent … Other companies with multiple listings also rose. Aluminum Corporation of China surged 13 percent, Guangshen Railway Co. rallied 14 percent, Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. jumped 14 percent China Life Insurance Co. increased 12 percent.
Companies on the CSI 300 index trade at an average 56 times reported earnings, compared with 34 times for the USX China Index.”
The quickest way the discrepancy will disappear is when Mainland stock markets fall between 40 and 60 percent, but my manicurist is going to make sure that doesn’t happen. Exxon, BP, Chevron all trade around 10 to 13 times earnings … what kind of nitwit thinks that SNP at 18 times is cheap or will move towards the insane “captive capital” valuations on the Mainland?
No wonder Buffett sold his entire PTR stake… as he famously said: “in financial markets: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”

Click to enlarge (Daily year-to-date chart of the USX China Index)
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 17:22 | 显示全部楼层
October 17, 2007
Crude ClimbHere’s a look at the 30-minute chart of Crude Oil (generic first month CL future) as it moved above $88 yesterday.You can see that traders who have been using a simple, tight trailing stop have captured some nice gains over the last several days.
(Bloomberg’s “Trender” is a proprietary study, but it looks like a pretty simple trailing stop based on average true range — you can adjust its sensitivity from 1 to 10 and I usually use 3 regardless of time frame. One neat trick is to enter multiple Trenders of different sensitivities on the same chart (example) — this will give you a kind of “multiple time frame” view of trend. You can also adjust it to reverse on close or reverse on cross; I usually use reverse on close.)

Click to enlarge
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Stir-frying StocksSelected excerpts from a Page One article in yesterday’s WSJ, China’s Stock Surge Raises
Fundamental Questions, by James Areddy:
“Stock markets in China are dominated by as many as 50 million individual investors, who are responsible for about 70% of the trading … On a recent night in Hangzhou, about 2,000 Chinese paid $800 apiece to see American investing guru Jim Rogers dispense advice. [a quick $1.6 million (gross) for Jimmy] … One investor paid $53,000 the next night to talk stocks in a private dinner with Mr. Rogers [+$53,000, nice work if you can get it] …
In the 1980s, Japan and Taiwan had two of the hottest economies and markets anywhere. A potent brew of conditions combined to supercharge the stock market in Japan and Taiwan: rising land values, strong corporate profits and currencies, low interest rates, high savings rates and limited investment alternatives — factors all seen in China today. In 1990, the markets cracked. Taiwan’s market dropped 79% in half a year. Japan entered a prolonged slump, with the Nikkei Stock Average bottoming out 13 years later at just a fifth of its peak value.
Chinese shares’ price-to-earnings ratio is 69 times last year’s earnings on the Shanghai market … price-to-earnings ratios peaked at 71 in Japan, 100 in Taiwan and 123 on the Nasdaq before those markets crashed, suggesting China is getting closer to the precrash peaks seen elsewhere.
… only about 22% of Chinese financial assets are in securities, far less than the U.S.’s 52% level … Profits of listed companies grew 74% in the first half of this year. But that number offers cold comfort, since some 38% of total net income was from companies’ own investments in the booming stock market, not from their operations. [circularity?]”
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October 16, 2007
I’m Not As Smart As I Thought I WasThe Blow-Up Artist, by John Cassidy
A longish piece in The New Yorker about Victor Niederhoffer. This was my favorite bit:
I asked him whether hubris had contributed to his downfall. “Yeah, I’d say,” he replied. “In those days, we always wanted to be No. 1 in the ratings. There was a Canadian firm, Friedberg—they were having a good year, and we wanted to keep up with them. It was always nip and tuck between us and them.” Niederhoffer was silent for a moment. Then he spoke quickly: “You asked for reasons—I could name another ten. We had no stops. We picked the wrong country to invest in. We were too illiquid. We had too big a percentage of the market, and we didn’t have the ability to get out of our positions. We were too financially vulnerable to the brokers. I didn’t take account of the fact that I could be squeezed and that customers could withdraw their money. But mainly I didn’t have a proper foundation for my investment there. I had no knowledge of the country. I’d never even visited the country. All I had done was finance a trip by Bo Keeley to the brothels there.’’
I was chatting with a childhood friend recently who reminds me of Niederhoffer… he’s brilliant, a “flawed genius,” on the edge of madness, and has made and lost fortunes in the stock market. He said the following, not about Niederhoffer but another guy we know… of course in a strange way he was talking about himself:
he got arrogant
he decided he was brilliant
it’s a disease
much better to think that you need to work harder to keep up
once you have decided you have the answers, it’s all over
you need to be humble
and listen
(I can quote directly because Gmail automatically archives all chats, bless them.)
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Eight-Legged Essay PreparationThe Chinese aren’t big spenders, generally speaking, but one place where they spare no expense is education. New Oriental (EDU) is the only way to play this that I know of. The stock just moved to an all-time high on blowout earnings.

Click to enlarge
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October 15, 2007
FLABbergasted in AmericaI was amazed and appalled by the number of extremely fat people I encountered during our recent trip back to America. Living abroad, I thought the whole “obesity epidemic” thing was overblown, but WOW, if anything the problem in America is hugely understated. It was like I went away for a year and everyone gained 100 pounds.
I saw hundreds of fat young people (teenagers and college-age kids) and every fat child I saw was accompanied by a fat parent. I estimated that close to 75% (three out of four) of the people I saw were overweight and around half of them were “morbidly” obese (100+ pounds overweight). It was absolutely startling!
Here are some relevant excerpts from the book, Fast Food Nation:
“The United States now has the highest obesity rate of any industrialized nation in the world. More than half of all American adults and about one-quarter of all American children are now obese or overweight. Those proportions have soared during the last few decades…. The rate of obesity among American adults is twice as high today as it was in the early 1960s. The rate of obesity among American children is twice as high as it was in the late 1970s.
The medical literature classifies a person as obese if he or she has a Body Mass Index (BMI) of 30 or higher-a measurement that takes into account both weight and height. For example, a woman who is five-foot-five and weighs 132 pounds has a BMI of 22, which is considered normal. If she gains eighteen pounds, her BMI rises to 25, and she’s considered overweight. If she gains fifty pounds, her BMI reaches 30, and she’s considered obese. Today about 44 million American adults are obese. An additional 6 million are ’super-obese’; they weigh about a hundred pounds more than they should. No other nation in history has gotten so fat so fast.
A recent study by half a dozen researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that the rate of American obesity was increasing in every state and among both sexes, regardless of age, race, or educational level. In 1991, only four states had obesity rates of 15 percent or higher; today at least thirty-seven states do. ‘Rarely do chronic conditions such as obesity,’ the CDC scientists observed, ’spread with the speed and dispersion characteristic of a communicable disease epidemic.’
… [T]he nation’s way of eating and living [has changed]. In simple terms: when people eat more and move less, they get fat. In the United States, people have become increasingly sedentary-driving to work instead of walking, performing little manual labor, driving to do errands, watching television, playing video games, and using a computer instead of exercising.
Over the past forty years in the United States, per capita consumption of carbonated soft drinks has more than quadrupled. During the late 1950s the typical soft drink order at a fast food restaurant contained about eight ounces of soda; today a ‘Child’ order of Coke at McDonald’s is twelve ounces. A ‘Large’ Coke is thirty-two ounces-and about 310 calories. In 1972, McDonald’s added Large French Fries to its menu; twenty years later, the chain added Super Size Fries, a serving three times larger than what McDonald’s offered a generation ago. Super Size Fries have 610 calories and 29 grams of fat.
Obesity is now second only to smoking as a cause of mortality in the United States. The CDC estimates that about 280,000 Americans die every year as a direct result of being overweight. The annual health care costs in the United States stemming from obesity now approach $240 billion; on top of that Americans spend more than $33 billion on various weight-loss schemes and diet products. Obesity has been linked to heart disease, colon cancer, stomach cancer, breast cancer, diabetes, arthritis, high blood pressure, infertility, and strokes. A 1999 study by the American Cancer Society found that overweight people had a much higher rate of premature death. Severely overweight people were four times more likely to die young than people of normal weight. Moderately overweight people were twice as likely to die young.
During thousands of years marked by food scarcity, human beings developed efficient physiological mechanisms to store energy as fat. Until recently, societies rarely enjoyed an overabundance of cheap food. As a result, our bodies are far more efficient at gaining weight than at losing it. Health officials have concluded that prevention, not treatment, offers the best hope of halting the worldwide obesity epidemic.”
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Semiconductor Sector Still SucksThe Semiconductor HOLDR (SMH) is on the brink of breaking the relative low made at the bottom of the bear market back in October 2002.

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September 30, 2007
Away on Vacation for the Next Two WeeksI will be away on vacation for the next two weeks. If you subscribe to my feed using
Bloglines or Google Reader or Netvibes, then you won’t have to visit the site to see if I’m back; any new posts will be delivered to you the moment I write them. Instead of wasting time surfing from blog to blog, I recommend you start subscribing to their feeds.
In the meantime, please visit the fine blogs listed in the blogroll in my sidebar, browse through recent posts or search the archives which stretch all the way back to 2001. You could easily spend two full weeks just reading the old stuff. I know you really want to do this. ;-)
Thanks for your patience during my absence and I look forward to seeing you again in mid-October.
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Buying Gold is the Purest Form of SpeculationFrom an interview with John Hathaway in this week’s Barron’s (emphasis is mine):
When you buy a gold [company’s] share, you buy it with one thought in mind, and that is because you think the gold price is going to go up. If [because of dilution] there are twice as many shares behind each ounce of gold as you thought you had, it cuts the upside in half.
Hold on, if that’s true why wouldn’t you just buy gold directly through the ETF (GLD)? Why would you ever mess around with any gold mining company stocks?
Here’s a monthly chart of gold over the last fifteen years. Note the bottom: $251.95 back in August 1999.

Click to enlarge
I really liked James Surowiecki’s article in the November 29, 2004 issue of the New Yorker, Why Gold? I’d also like to point out that the yellow metal is up about 67% since he wrote it. ;-)
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September 29, 2007
TGIF (VII)



(Another in the TGIF series)
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Cancel the Trip to Europe — DXY Officially in No Man’s LandHere’s a look at an intraday chart (15 minute) of the Dollar Index (DXY) as it enters the no man’s land below 78.19. (Does anyone else love looking at the charts drawn on 24-hour markets?)

Click to enlarge
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 17:23 | 显示全部楼层
October 17, 2007
Crude ClimbHere’s a look at the 30-minute chart of Crude Oil (generic first month CL future) as it moved above $88 yesterday.You can see that traders who have been using a simple, tight trailing stop have captured some nice gains over the last several days.
(Bloomberg’s “Trender” is a proprietary study, but it looks like a pretty simple trailing stop based on average true range — you can adjust its sensitivity from 1 to 10 and I usually use 3 regardless of time frame. One neat trick is to enter multiple Trenders of different sensitivities on the same chart (this will give you a kind of “multiple time frame” view of trend. You can also adjust it to reverse on close or reverse on cross; I usually use reverse on close.)

Click to enlarge
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Stir-frying StocksSelected are dominated by as many as 50 million individual investors, who are responsible for about 70% of the trading … On a recent night in Hangzhou, about 2,000 Chinese paid $800 apiece to see American investing guru Jim Rogers dispense advice. [a quick $1.6 million (gross) for Jimmy] … One investor paid $53,000 the next night to talk stocks in a private dinner with Mr. Rogers [+$53,000, nice work if you can get it] …
In the 1980s, Japan and Taiwan had two of the hottest economies and markets anywhere. A potent brew of conditions combined to supercharge the stock market in Japan and Taiwan: rising land values, strong corporate profits and currencies, low interest rates, high savings rates and limited investment alternatives — factors all seen in China today. In 1990, the markets cracked. Taiwan’s market dropped 79% in half a year. Japan entered a prolonged slump, with the Nikkei Stock Average bottoming out 13 years later at just a fifth of its peak value.
Chinese shares’ price-to-earnings ratio is 69 times last year’s earnings on the Shanghai market … price-to-earnings ratios peaked at 71 in Japan, 100 in Taiwan and 123 on the Nasdaq before those markets crashed, suggesting China is getting closer to the precrash peaks seen elsewhere.
… only about 22% of Chinese financial assets are in securities, far less than the U.S.’s 52% level … Profits of listed companies grew 74% in the first half of this year. But that number offers cold comfort, since some 38% of total net income was from companies’ own investments in the booming stock market, not from their operations. [circularity?]”
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October 16, 2007
I’m Not As Smart As I Thought I WasThe Blow-Up Artist, by John Cassidy
A longish piece in The New Yorker about Victor Niederhoffer. This was my favorite bit:
I asked him whether hubris had contributed to his downfall. “Yeah, I’d say,” he replied. “In those days, we always wanted to be No. 1 in the ratings. There was a Canadian firm, Friedberg—they were having a good year, and we wanted to keep up with them. It was always nip and tuck between us and them.” Niederhoffer was silent for a moment. Then he spoke quickly: “You asked for reasons—I could name another ten. We had no stops. We picked the wrong country to invest in. We were too illiquid. We had too big a percentage of the market, and we didn’t have the ability to get out of our positions. We were too financially vulnerable to the brokers. I didn’t take account of the fact that I could be squeezed and that customers could withdraw their money. But mainly I didn’t have a proper foundation for my investment there. I had no knowledge of the country. I’d never even visited the country. All I had done was finance a trip by Bo Keeley to the brothels there.’’
I was chatting with a childhood friend recently who reminds me of Niederhoffer… he’s brilliant, a “flawed genius,” on the edge of madness, and has made and lost fortunes in the stock market. He said the following, not about Niederhoffer but another guy we know… of course in a strange way he was talking about himself:
he got arrogant
he decided he was brilliant
it’s a disease
much better to think that you need to work harder to keep up
once you have decided you have the answers, it’s all over
you need to be humble
and listen
(I can quote directly because Gmail automatically archives all chats, bless them.)
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Cat:   | Time: 6:12 pm (utc+8) Comments (5)


Eight-Legged Essay PreparationThe Chinese aren’t big spenders, generally speaking, but one place where they spare no expense is education. New Oriental (EDU) is the only way to play this that I know of. The stock just moved to an all-time high on

Click to enlarge
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Cat:   | Time: 11:40 am (utc+8) Comments (1)

October 15, 2007
FLABbergasted in AmericaI was amazed and appalled by the number of extremely fat people I encountered during our recent trip back to America. Living abroad, I thought the whole “obesity epidemic” thing was overblown, but WOW, if anything the problem in America is hugely understated. It was like I went away for a year and everyone gained 100 pounds.
I saw hundreds of fat young people (teenagers and college-age kids) and every fat child I saw was accompanied by a fat parent. I estimated that close to 75% (three out of four) of the people I saw were overweight and around half of them were “morbidly” obese (100+ pounds overweight). It was absolutely startling!
Here are some relevant excerpts from the book, Fast Food Nation:
“The United States now has the highest obesity rate of any industrialized nation in the world. More than half of all American adults and about one-quarter of all American children are now obese or overweight. Those proportions have soared during the last few decades…. The rate of obesity among American adults is twice as high today as it was in the early 1960s. The rate of obesity among American children is twice as high as it was in the late 1970s.
The medical literature classifies a person as obese if he or she has a Body Mass Index (BMI) of 30 or higher-a measurement that takes into account both weight and height. For example, a woman who is five-foot-five and weighs 132 pounds has a BMI of 22, which is considered normal. If she gains eighteen pounds, her BMI rises to 25, and she’s considered overweight. If she gains fifty pounds, her BMI reaches 30, and she’s considered obese. Today about 44 million American adults are obese. An additional 6 million are ’super-obese’; they weigh about a hundred pounds more than they should. No other nation in history has gotten so fat so fast.
A recent study by half a dozen researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that the rate of American obesity was increasing in every state and among both sexes, regardless of age, race, or educational level. In 1991, only four states had obesity rates of 15 percent or higher; today at least thirty-seven states do. ‘Rarely do chronic conditions such as obesity,’ the CDC scientists observed, ’spread with the speed and dispersion characteristic of a communicable disease epidemic.’
… [T]he nation’s way of eating and living [has changed]. In simple terms: when people eat more and move less, they get fat. In the United States, people have become increasingly sedentary-driving to work instead of walking, performing little manual labor, driving to do errands, watching television, playing video games, and using a computer instead of exercising.
Over the past forty years in the United States, per capita consumption of carbonated soft drinks has more than quadrupled. During the late 1950s the typical soft drink order at a fast food restaurant contained about eight ounces of soda; today a ‘Child’ order of Coke at McDonald’s is twelve ounces. A ‘Large’ Coke is thirty-two ounces-and about 310 calories. In 1972, McDonald’s added Large French Fries to its menu; twenty years later, the chain added Super Size Fries, a serving three times larger than what McDonald’s offered a generation ago. Super Size Fries have 610 calories and 29 grams of fat.
Obesity is now second only to smoking as a cause of mortality in the United States. The CDC estimates that about 280,000 Americans die every year as a direct result of being overweight. The annual health care costs in the United States stemming from obesity now approach $240 billion; on top of that Americans spend more than $33 billion on various weight-loss schemes and diet products. Obesity has been linked to heart disease, colon cancer, stomach cancer, breast cancer, diabetes, arthritis, high blood pressure, infertility, and strokes. A 1999 study by the American Cancer Society found that overweight people had a much higher rate of premature death. Severely overweight people were four times more likely to die young than people of normal weight. Moderately overweight people were twice as likely to die young.
During thousands of years marked by food scarcity, human beings developed efficient physiological mechanisms to store energy as fat. Until recently, societies rarely enjoyed an overabundance of cheap food. As a result, our bodies are far more efficient at gaining weight than at losing it. Health officials have concluded that prevention, not treatment, offers the best hope of halting the worldwide obesity epidemic.”
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Semiconductor Sector Still SucksThe Semiconductor HOLDR (SMH) is on the brink of breaking the relative low made at the bottom of the bear market back in October 2002.

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  | Time: 11:18 am (utc+8) Comments (0)


Buying Gold is the Purest Form of SpeculationFrom an interview with John Hathaway in this week’s Barron’s (emphasis is mine):
When you buy a gold [company’s] share, you buy it with one thought in mind, and that is because you think the gold price is going to go up. If [because of dilution] there are twice as many shares behind each ounce of gold as you thought you had, it cuts the upside in half.
Hold on, if that’s true why wouldn’t you just buy gold directly through the ETF (GLD)? Why would you ever mess around with any gold mining company stocks?
Here’s a monthly chart of gold over the last fifteen years. Note the bottom: $251.95 back in August 1999.

Click to enlarge
I really liked James Surowiecki’s article in the November 29, 2004 issue of the New like to point out that the yellow metal is up about 67% since he wrote it. ;-)
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September 29, 2007
TGIF (VII)





Cat:   | Time: 6:54 pm (utc+8) Comments (0)


Cancel the Trip to Europe — DXY Officially in No Man’s LandHere’s a look at an intraday chart (15 minute) of the Dollar Index (DXY) as it enters the no man’s land below 78.19. (Does anyone else love looking at the charts drawn on 24-hour markets?)

Click to enlarge
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 17:24 | 显示全部楼层
Unusual Suspect (SSTR) & Random ObservationsChoppy blah day with a negative bias and a crummy close.
Notable New Lows: BigBand Networks (BBND), Standard Pacific (SPF), and Fifth Third Bancorp (one of the many Bancorps that looks insanely cheap, but maybe I’m the crazy one).
Notable New Highs: Monsanto (MON), Pepsi (PEP), Crocs (CROX), Gold (GLD), and the Currency ETFs (FXA - Australia, FXC -Canada, FXE -Euro Zone).
Silverstar Resources was the daily screamer that gave a nice low-risk spot above the 10:45 bar.

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September 28, 2007
No Hierarchy Above or BelowGetting Things Done Guru David Allen and His Cult of Hyperefficiency, by Gary Wolf
Liked this bit best (emphasis is mine):
“Allen is grappling with all the normal challenges of a person who does not have a deep hierarchy above or below him, who is required to make countless small decisions, and who has limited ability to pass mundane tasks off to others. He sets his own goals and uses his own methods to achieve them.”
I read Getting Things Done and thought it would make a very decent 20-page pamphlet. Here’s my GTD tip: Hire a secretary! 95% of what’s cluttering your mind is the mundane, and they can take care of it. Make a list and hand it over!
The whole GTD movement is partially the result of more independent workers (contract, freelance, whatever you want to call them), but more important is the fact that corporations don’t hire secretaries for their middle managers any more and these folks are just drowning.
UPDATE: Thought of something else while in the shower: another factor is that both husband and wife have full time jobs so neither is available to handle the “stuff.” Not to be sexist, but traditionally didn’t housewives manage the day-to-day stuff? You know, maintain a neat and organized home?
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Closet Chartists Crazy CountsBear Stearns May Draw Investment From Banks, Buffett
“Billionaire Joseph Lewis, the British-born, Bahamas-based currency trader, paid $860 million for a 7 percent stake in Bear Stearns … Buffett contacted Cayne last month when the stock approached $100, the Times reported. Bear Stearns shares fell to a two-year low of $103.15 on Aug. 15, and closed up $8.76 at $123 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading yesterday.”
I bet Lewis and Buffett never look at technical indicators, but the daily Sequential nailed both the high back in January and the low earlier this month. Who knows, maybe they’re both closet chart fiends. ;-)

Click to enlarge
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Most Read Stories (28-Sep-2007 10:14:26)Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 28-Sep-2007 at 10:14:26 (Beijing time):
  • Chuck Norris’s Tears Might Solve Credit Crunch Long string of Chuck Norris jokes, the best one is probably: “Chuck Norris doesn’t mark-to-market. The market marks to Chuck Norris.”
  • Housing Slump to Last Beyond 2008, Fannie’s Mudd Says
    “Congress created Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to expand home ownership and promote mortgage-market stability. The companies, which increase mortgage financing by purchasing home loans from lenders, own or guarantee about 40 percent of the $11.5 trillion U.S. home loan market.”
    Buffett has said that one of his greatest “errors of omission” was never buying Fannie back in the 80’s.
  • U.S. Economy: New-Home Sales Decline 8.3 Percent
    “‘We see no signs that the housing market is stabilizing and believe it will be some time before a recovery begins,’ Jeffrey Mezger, chief executive officer of Los Angeles-based KB Home, said today in a statement.”
    No signs, “some time,” and Mezger probably has a good handle on the market.
  • `Greedy Bastard’ Moulton Mocks Buyout Firms’ U.K. Tax Dodging
    “‘We had to get [Moulton] out of accounting. He’s very straightforward, very quick and a lot of fun to have around.’”
    Did this line make any other accountants laugh out loud?
  • ECB Lends 3.9 Billion Euros to Banks, Most Since 2004
    “The three-month London inter-bank offered rate for euros rose to 4.79 percent today, a six-year high, from 4.73 percent, according to the British Bankers’ Association. The increase shows that the fallout from losses on subprime mortgages is still making banks reluctant to lend to each other.”
    Vicious cycle as banks that are in trouble don’t want to appear to be in trouble by borrowing at the penalty rate thus prolonging their troubles.
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Unusual Suspect (KONG) & Random ObservationsNice positive tone all day, nothing flying, just buyers on the tape all day.
Notable New Lows: Akamai (AKAM), BearingPoint (BE), and Coldwater Creek (CWTR).
Notable New Highs: Anything China, Anything Brazil, Anything Latin America, Wynn (WYNN), and Crocs (CROX).
KongZhong was up a little bit today and gave a nice Dummy spot to get long.

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September 27, 2007
CITIC Securities: Revenge of the ManicuristsGiven the news that CITIC Securities’ market cap is now over $40 billion, I thought I’d post its daily and weekly charts.
I first wrote about CITIC in May, foolishly disparaging my manicurist for her stock picking savvy. She still does my nails as a “courtesy” even though she’s now richer than me. ;-)
The trend change on the daily chart I pointed out in early July happened to be a wonderful spot to buy. Too bad this dip didn’t buy that dip.

Click to enlarge (Weekly, since listed in 2002)


Click to enlarge (Daily, one year)
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Most Read Stories (27-Sep-2007 10:20:21)Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 27-Sep-2007 at 10:20:21 (Beijing time):
  • Las Vegas Home Devaluation Shows Residential Market May Drop 6%
    “‘What we need more of in Las Vegas is home equity. It’s not that prices have plummeted, they’re down about 5 percent so far. But if you bought near the top with no money down, you’re under water.’”
    I’ve never met anyone anywhere who has bought real estate with “no money down” … it’s a myth.
  • GM, UAW Reach Contract Accord, Ending 2-Day Strike
    “GM sought to shift future retiree health-care obligations off its books through creation of a union-run fund called a Voluntary Employees’ Beneficiary Association, or VEBA, that it would help to finance.”
    Now to solve the little problem of making cars that people want to buy.
  • Citic Surpasses Lehman, Schwab as Savings Lift Stocks
    “Founded just 12 years ago, Beijing-based Citic now has a market capitalization of $40.7 billion, or $8.8 billion more than Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., $24.4 billion more than Bear Stearns Cos. and $16.4 billion more than Charles Schwab Corp., after more than tripling in 2007 … Investors in China have opened 46 million trading accounts this year alone, nine times 2006’s amount. Total accounts have swelled to 125 million. In the U.S., brokerages manage more than 83 million accounts.”
    Not to be a party pooper, but what happens when the bubble bursts?
  • Merrill Lynch May Write Down Assets by $4 Billion
    “Merrill may have to write down the value of mortgages, corporate loans and collateralized debt obligations by $4 billion.”
    Oww.
  • Goldman Names Forst Co-Head of Fund Unit With Kraus
    “Assets under management rose 27 percent from a year earlier to a record $796 billion in the third quarter, Goldman reported last week. That figure includes about $40 billion in hedge funds.”
    GS is an asset gathering dynamo.
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Stock Du Jour (JRJC) & Random ObservationsVery strong morning, bit of a reversal in early afternoon but a good solid close.
Notable New Lows: Every single homebuilder, so… Homebuilder SPDR (XHB), Borders (BGP), Knight (NITE), Robert Half (RHI), Vonage (VG) — Ever seen a $0.96 Happy Meal?
Notable New Highs: Humana (HUM), MGM (MGM), Praxair (PX), Colgate Palmolive (CL), Hansen (HANS) — this soda costs $4 a can in Beijing; Verifone (PAY), Cisco (CSCO), Nvidia (NVDA), Research in Motion (RIMM), Monsanto (MON), and Brazil (RIO).
China Finance Online (JRJC) has gone straight up on huge volume of late… I have no idea what they do or what’s going on but I do know it has a float of only 20 million shares. Here’s the weekly chart since JRJC listed in 2004:

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September 26, 2007
Most Read Stories (26-Sep-2007 10:01:15)Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 26-Sep-2007 at 10:01:15 (Beijing time):
  • Subprime Panic Freezes $40 Billion of Canadian Commercial Paper
    “The funds run by companies such as Coventree paid interest of about 4.6 percent for 30 days, compared with three-month Canadian government bills that yielded 4.35 percent. The debt is backed by mortgages, corporate bonds, and car loans that typically yield as much as 1 percentage point more than commercial paper … On Aug. 13 Coventree said it couldn’t find enough buyers to refinance C$950 million of short- term debt and its banks refused to provide emergency funds.”
    Coventree management obviously wasn’t playing enough golf with their bankers.
  • Lennar Reports Biggest Loss in Its 53-Year History
    “‘The days of no verification, no downpayment and low credit scores are past,’ CFO Bruce Gross said.”
    You mean the days of dumb lending are past? And the chartists looking for LEN at $15 may be right!
  • The Fall of Detroit: Insider Sees Errors of 1970s in GM Strike
    “During our 30-minute lunch breaks, we sat in our cars and listened to Jimi Hendrix as we smoked marijuana, drank beer and took Desoxyn and other methamphetamines before returning to the line.”
    So much for quality control.
  • Crude Oil Falls Below $79 as Naimi Says Markets Are in Turmoil
    “Crude oil prices have risen 31 percent since Jan. 18.”
  • Perot’s Magna Carta May Take $30 Million at Sotheby’s
    “Ross Perot’s foundation will sell its copy of the Magna Carta for as much as $30 million in New York in mid-December. The document was bought by Perot in 1984 for $1.5 million.”
    So this piece of paper appreciated about 14% a year, right? Is that better than the US long bond over the same priod?
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 17:24 | 显示全部楼层
September 26, 2007
Stocks Du Jour (QQQQ vs. QID) & Random ObservationsNice solid day of buying.
Notable New Lows: A ton of retailers and restaurants (consumer-led recession theme): PF Chang’s (PFCB), Borders (BGP), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Chico’s (CHS), Pier 1 (PIR), Sears (SHLD), Circuit City (CC), Staples (SPLS); Vonage (VG) — Happy Meals cost more than $1.30; all the homebuilders as usual; and the UltraShort Q’s (QID).
Notable New Highs: Lots of China stuff, the most dramatic mover being Focus Media (FMCN); Apple (AAPL), Crocs (CROX), Research in Motion (RIMM), EMC (EMC), and the Q’s (QQQQ).
I like posting the hourly overlay chart of the Q’s versus the QID — here it is from the beginning of July.

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September 25, 2007
Breakfast of Champion Trend FollowersHere’s a look at wheat — the daily chart for 2007. Once price got above the 500-550 range, it has really shot up. Jimmy Rogers might not like to jump on a moving bus, and there is the sign of exhaustion, but the trend is still your friend here (until it isn’t).

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Most Read Stories (25-Sep-2007 9:44:50)Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 25-Sep-2007 at 9:44:50 (Beijing time):
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Stocks Du Jour (GOOG & XHB) & Random ObservationsBlah positive morning followed by a reversal to a blah negative afternoon.
Notable New Lows: McClatchy (MNI), Sun Times (SVN), Border’s (BGP), Pier One (PIR), Nortel (NT), SONUS Pharma (SNUS), Circuit City (CC), and every homebuilder out there so the Homebuilder SPDR (XHB) goes to a new low too.
Notable New Highs: Anything China: FXI, CAF, GXC, CHN, GCH, PGJ, BIDU, SHI, YZC, SNP, CHNR, CEO, PTR, CHL, JRJC, YGE; Garmin (GRMN), Amazon (AMZN), EMC (EMC), VMWare (VMW), Wynn (WYNN), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Celgene (CELG), Research in Motion (RIMM); RIO and BHP; MSCI Brazil (EWZ) and MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM); and the one and only Google (GOOG).
I thought I’d feature both a new high and a new low today… weekly charts of Google (GOOG) and the Homebuilder SPDR (XHB).


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September 24, 2007
Canadian Investors in US Stocks - Going Nowhere FastHere’s a monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index in Canadian dollars. You can see that the Index is still down almost exactly a third from the dot com bubble high in March 2000, and only up around 30% from the bear market bottom in March 2003. You have to feel sorry for Canadian investors in US assets who have been getting killed lo these many years. The worst possible position for anyone to be in — think of retirees or marginally employed single mothers — would be having to meet CAD expenses with USD income.

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A Silent Emigration of AmericansBob Adams, CEO of New Global Initiatives, writing in Barron’s “Other Voices” column:
“The largest group actually having made the decision to relocate [abroad] is in the households where the adults are 25 to 34 years old. Blame it on outdated 20th-century thinking, but I assumed this age group would be too busy establishing families and career paths to pull up stakes and move out of the country. Wrong. When it comes to a serious interest in buying a property outside the U.S., that youthful age group dominates. A lot of Americans are at various stages of considering relocation or buying property overseas, but the 25-34 age group is the one putting down the bucks to do it.”
Yes, bright young Americans understand the importance of diversifying away from dollar-denominated income and assets.
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Most Read Stories (24-Sep-2007 9:08:39)Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 24-Sep-2007 at 9:08:39 (Beijing time):
  • Fed Will Lower Rates Again Before January Trading History Shows
    “… traders have pushed the yield on Treasury two-year notes to almost three quarters of a point below the designated 4.75 percent funds rate … Two-year yields were more than half a percentage point lower than the fed funds target from May to December 1989, from August to November 1998 and from October 2000 to April 2001. The Fed lowered rates during and after each period.”
  • Goldman Sees `Bottom’ as Besieged Wall Street Can’t Yet Concur
    “‘There are going to be opportunities in the mortgage business,’ CFO David Viniar said, and ‘there are certainly going to be opportunities to buy distressed assets.’”
  • BNP, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Pounded by Forecast, Proving Prescient
    “Paris-based BNP Paribas SA is predicting [the British pound] will tumble 23 percent to $1.547 next year.”
    A guess no doubt made by their chief strategist after about dozen glasses of wine at Tour d’Argent.
  • Forget Dog Years — We Are Living `China Years’
    “According to Green’s calculations, one American year is equivalent to one quarter of a Chinese year, or 2.8 months. One British year equals 3.1 Chinese months. In other words, an American or a Brit will experience as much change in China in the space of three months as he or she would at home. Life in China is roughly four times faster.”
    Yes, and this is why Beijing is one of the most fascinating places to live right now.
  • Suddenly a Good Bear Is Hard to Find as Stocks Rise on Fed Ease
    “China, India and Russia together will account for half of global growth this year, according to the International Monetary Fund.”
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September 22, 2007
Stock Du Jour (ORCL) & Random ObservationsNice solid morning of buying, some hesitation in the afternoon but positive, close was a little weak.
Notable New Highs: Many solar / alt energy stocks: JASO, YGE, ASTI, LDK, ASTIZ; Potash (POT), Verizon (VZ), Oil Service HOLDRS (OIH), Halliburton (HAL), and Oracle (ORCL).
Notable New Lows: Aaron Rents (RNT), BearingPoint (BE), Mitsubishi (MTU), and Pool (POOL).
Here’s a quarterly chart of Oracle (ORCL) going back to 1986… still less than half the dot com bubble high but up a little bit over the last 20 years (around 550 times).

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September 21, 2007
TGIF (VI)



(Another in the TGIF series)
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 17:25 | 显示全部楼层
September 21, 2007
Canadian Dollar at Parity with US DollarHere’s a quarterly chart of the Canadian Dollar (CAD) going back to 1971. You can see that after continuously strengthening these last five years, the CAD has finally reached parity with the USD — a level last seen in the mid-1970s. Who you callin’ loonie?

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Most Read Stories (21-Sep-2007 9:58:29)Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 21-Sep-2007 at 9:58:29 (Beijing time):
  • Goldman Net Tops Estimates; Bear’s Drops 61 Percent
    “… Goldman profited from short positions that anticipated declining loan values. They made money in part by entering into contracts tied to ABX indexes, which reflect the perceived risk of mortgage defaults. The gains more than offset losses from writedowns on Goldman’s inventory of non-prime home loans and related securities.”
  • Bear Stearns Net Drops Most in Decade on Credit Rout
    “The failure of two Bear Stearns hedge funds, which bet on mortgage securities, saddled the firm with $200 million of losses … Bear Stearns wrote down the value of mortgage assets and leveraged loan commitments by $700 million, after using financial-market hedges to mitigate the loss.”
  • Deutsche Bank’s `Mistakes’ Will Curb Profit, Hiring
    “‘We are now correcting values of all these loan commitments for the next nine months,’ CEO Josef Ackermann said. ‘This is very conservative but right.’”
  • JPMorgan, ING Funds Backfire With Long-Short Strategy
    “Long-short funds charge fees of $22, or 2.2 percent, for every $1,000 invested, compared with 1.5 percent for actively managed long-only mutual funds. Managers say the higher fees are needed because shorting strategies carry higher trading costs and require more research.”
    Managers say the higher fees are needed because the Maserati Quattroporte costs $110,600 and most retail investors don’t understand the effects of compounding anyway.
  • TCW CDOs Dump $3.2 Billion of Mortgage Securities
    “‘Westways X did not experience any delinquencies or credit performance issues, but did experience widening spreads consistent with all non-Treasury fixed income sectors,’ TCW said in the statement. ‘The resulting pricing declines, while modest by most financial market standards, have been sufficient to cause the structure’s net asset value to fall below a critical threshold.’”
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Stock Du Jour (POT) & Random ObservationsNowhere chop for the first half of the day then some selling kicked in early afternoon and continued into the close.
Notable New Lows: Enterra (ENT), Cott (COT), Pantry (PTRY), Time Warner Cable (TWC), and Circuit City (CC).
Notable New Highs: Huge number and I don’t want to be too repetitive, so it’s hard to choose: Blue Nile (NILE), ABB (ABB), Kinross Gold (KGC), Barrick (ABX), Gold (GLD), Oil Service HOLDRS (OIH), Medtronic (MDT), Potash (POT), and AT&T (T).
Here’s a quarterly chart of Potash which gives you some long-term perspective. As commenter “yin” suggests, this is another good stock to add to your “agricultural plays” portfolio.

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September 20, 2007
Dollar Index Entering No Man’s LandWe know that below 78.19 is truly no man’s land in the Dollar Index (DXY). The TD Sequential indicator is sometimes useful for identifying trend exhaustion, so a lot of people keep an eye on it.
As you can see from this daily chart, the possible reversal indicated in early August caught a tiny run before the massive, secular downtrend reasserted itself. I can’t say it often enough: maintain your USD shorts.

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Absence of BackwardationFollowing up on the helpful comments to my recent USO post, I found this section in the GSG prospectus which clearly explains the risk of contango markets or the “absence of backwardation”:
“During a period when commodity prices are fairly stationary, an absence of ‘backwardation’ in the prices of the commodities included in the S&P GSCI-ER may itself cause the price of your Shares to decrease.
As the futures contracts that underlie the S&P GSCI-ER near expiration, they are replaced by contracts that have a later expiration. Thus, for example, a contract purchased in March may specify a June expiration. As that contract nears expiration, it may be replaced by selling the June contract and purchasing the contract expiring in September. This process is referred to as ‘rolling.’
Historically, the prices of some futures contracts (generally those relating to commodities that are typically consumed immediately rather than stored) have frequently been higher for contracts with shorter-term expirations than for contracts with longer-term expiration, which is referred to as “backwardation.”
In these circumstances, absent other factors, the sale of the June contract would take place at a price that is higher than the price at which the September contract is purchased, thereby allowing the contract holder to purchase a greater quantity of the September contract.
While many of the contracts included in the S&P GSCI-ER have historically exhibited consistent periods of backwardation, backwardation will likely not exist at all times. Moreover, some of the commodities reflected in the S&P GSCI-ER historically exhibit ‘contango’ markets rather than backwardation.
Contango markets are those in which the prices of contracts are higher in the distant delivery months than in the nearer delivery months due to the costs of long-term storage of a physical commodity prior to delivery or other factors. The forward price of a commodity may also fluctuate between backwardation and contango.
The absence of backwardation, or the existence of contango, in the commodity markets could result in losses, which could adversely affect the value of the S&P GSCI-ER and, accordingly, decrease the value of your Shares.”
A decent “Plain English” explanation of backwardation and contango… I love when the mysterious “other factors” appear to explain price movement.
Here’s Merrill Lynch’s version, from their PROCEEDS prospectus:
“The Commodity Index is a rolling index
The Commodity Index is composed of futures contracts on physical commodities. Unlike equities, which typically entitle the holder to a continuing stake in a corporation, commodity futures contracts have a set expiration date and normally specify a certain date for delivery of the underlying physical commodity.
In the case of the Index, as the exchange-traded futures contracts that comprise the Index approach the month before expiration, they are replaced by contracts that have a later expiration. This process is referred to as ‘rolling.’
If the market for these contracts is (putting aside other considerations) in ‘Backwardation,’ where the prices are lower in the distant delivery months than in the nearer delivery months, the sale of the nearer delivery month contract would take place at a price that is higher than the price of the distant delivery month contract, thereby creating a positive ‘roll yield.’
While many of the contracts included in the Commodity Index have historically exhibited consistent periods of backwardation that has resulted in an element of roll yield enhancing the Commodity Index’s past performance, there is no indication that these markets will consistently be in backwardation or that there will be roll yield in future performance.
Instead, these markets may trade in contango. Contango markets are those in which the prices of contracts are higher in the distant delivery months than in the nearer delivery months. Certain of the commodities included in the Commodity Index have historically traded in contango markets.
Contango (or the absence of backwardation) in the commodity markets could result in negative ‘roll yields’ which could adversely affect the value of the Commodity Index and the value of the PROCEEDS.”
Putting aside other considerations, I think I like Merrill’s version better.
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Most Read Stories (20-Sep-2007 9:54:29)Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 20-Sep-2007 at 9:54:29 (Beijing time):
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Stock Du Jour (MON) & Random ObservationsNice solid morning then a blast of selling right around 2 PM which later reversed, closed decently. Probably a tricky day where most morning longs were stopped out for a scratch in the afternoon.
Notable New Lows: Qimonda (QI).
Notable New Highs: MS China A (CAF), Overstock (OSTK), Sohu (SOHU), Yingli Green Energy (YGE), Posco (PKX), Sunpower (SPWR), LDK Solar (LDK), Gamestop (GME), Autodesk (ADSK), Monsanto (MON), Schlumberger (SLB), Nokia (NOK), Baidu (BIDU), and Freeport McMoRan (FCX).
I’ll feature a monthly chart of Monsanto (MON). Given the trouble of “roll” when investing in an agricultural commodities ETF, does it make sense just to buy Monsanto instead?

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September 19, 2007
Dying is Easy, Living is ToughJack LaLanne on Exercise: It’s a ‘Pain in the Gluties’
Many of these What’s Your Workout columns are lame, but this one with Jack LaLanne is great:
“The way people eat today is sick,” laments Mr. LaLanne. “Would you even feed your dog a cup of coffee and a doughnut in the morning?” Mr. LaLanne has many favorite sayings when it comes to diet: “Everything nature’s way.…If man makes it, don’t eat it.…If it tastes good, spit it out.…The food you eat today you’re wearing tomorrow.” He lives by all of them. “Before I eat something I ask ‘What is it doing for me, the most important person on Earth?’ ”
Mr. LaLanne only eats two meals per day: One at 11 a.m. after his workout and one at 7 p.m. at a restaurant with his wife.
His 11 a.m. meal consists of three to four hard-boiled egg whites, a cup of broth-type soup, oatmeal with soy milk, raisins and a plate of seasonal fruit.
“Every restaurant we frequent has the ‘Jack LaLanne salad’ which is ten raw vegetables and four egg whites hardboiled,” he says. “I make them throw the fat and cholesterol in the yolk away and you’re left with the best protein known to man. Four egg whites have the same amount of protein as one pound of steak but only 60 calories compared to 1,000 calories.” Mr. LaLanne eats fish nearly every night at dinner. The only other meat he eats is roast turkey. He doesn’t snack between meals.
With dinner he drinks wine — a mix of white zinfandel and red. “French people live the longest and they have wine with lunch and dinner every day,” he says. “Americans drink milk instead. Milk is for a suckling calf. How many creatures still use milk after they’re weaned? Man.”
I subscribe to the “many small meals throughout the day” philosophy, but I’m with Jack on the rest of it.
Related: Thoughts on Body Odor and Dairy Products
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Most Read Stories (19-Sep-2007 9:41:29)Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 19-Sep-2007 at 9:41:29 (Beijing time):
  • Fed Lowers Rate to 4.75 Percent, First Cut Since 2003
    “Stocks surged, two-year Treasury notes rose, crude oil climbed to a record, gold and copper surged, and the dollar fell to a record low against the euro … ‘This concern about moral hazard is a whole lot easier to preach than it is to implement,’ said Neal Soss, chief economist at Credit Suisse. ‘It’s very hard to administer tough love.’”
  • Lehman Beats Estimates, Limits Losses on Mortgages
    “Lehman said that hedging in financial markets capped losses on leveraged loans and mortgage holdings at $700 million … The firm expects to lose more than $1 billion on… leveraged loans.”
  • U.S. Federal Open Market Committee Statement: Text
    “… the tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing correction and to restrain economic growth more generally. Today’s action is intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy….”
  • Bernanke Weighs Recession Risk Against Bailout Charge
    “‘It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve –nor would it be appropriate — to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions,’ Bernanke said in an Aug. 31 speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.”
  • Rogers, Faber Say Fed Rate Cuts Will Spur a Recession
    “Rogers said investors should sell U.S. dollars and bonds. He said he’s selling short shares of investment banks and expects them to fall further. Rogers said he is buying agricultural commodities and recommended investors purchase Asian currencies including the Chinese renminbi and the Japanese yen.”
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Stock Du Jour (GE) & Random ObservationsNice positive morning, not great but positive, and then all hell broke lose after the Fed announcement with dramatic buying, a huge surge hit the market, woe to those who were on the wrong side.
Notable New Lows: UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG), Syntax Brillian (BRLC), Getty Images (GYI), and Knight Capital (NITE).
Notable New Highs: MS China A (CAF), FTSE/Xinhua 25 (FXI), Ctrip (CTRP), Baidu (BIDU), China Mobile (CHL), Wynn (WYNN), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Deere (DE), Cummins (CMI), Nokia (NOK), US Oil Fund (USO), Schlumberger (SLB), Research in Motion (RIMM), and the General (GE).
Here’s a quarterly chart of General Electric (GE) for some long-term perspective.

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 17:27 | 显示全部楼层
Northern Rock Crumbles (Daily & Intraday Charts)As you can see from the daily chart, the volume has gone up a wee bit the last couple of days — another kind of run on the bank as shareholders flee the sinking ship.

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Dummies should recognize a lot of low-risk spots to get short off the 15-minute chart.

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Most Read Stories (18-Sep-2007 9:31:35)Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 18-Sep-2007 at 9:31:35 (Beijing time):
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Stock Du Jour (GSG) & Random ObservationsSelling from the get-go, chopped around a bit in the afternoon but closed weak.
Notable New Highs: Sohu (SOHU), Shanda (SNDA), Baidu (BIDU), Monsanto (MON), P&G (PG), and Las Vegas Sands (LVS).
Notable New Lows: Xinhua Finance (XFML), LaBranche (LAB), Talbot’s (TLB), value trap McClatchy (MNI) plus Lee Enterprises (LEE) and New York Times (NYT), Moody’s (MCO), Marsh McLennan (MMC), Progressive (PGR), Alcatel Lucent (ALU), and a major plunge in Enterra (ENT) — one of those Canadian income trusts.
The Commodity ETFs are strong of late… here’s a weekly chart of the iShares GSCI Commodity ETF (GSG).


Most up-to-date data: S&P GSCI™ Components and Dollar Weights (%)
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September 17, 2007
You Have a Good TasteRan across this hilarious picture: “Silk market rules” : Photos taken by lloydthyen. The Silk Market is a tourist trap in Beijing where they sell mainly fake and shoddy “brand name” goods. No local foreigners would ever shop there; it’s strictly for naive tourists.
I love the contrast between the Recommended Words and the Forbidden Words. I can improve on those Forbidden Word translations, and provide the answers for numbers 8, 9, and 10 which are mysteriously missing.
  • You’re nuts!
  • Don’t ask if you’re not buying!
  • Bullshit!
  • Get lost!
  • Don’t touch if you don’t have money!
  • Idiot!
  • Just take it and get out of here!
  • If you can’t afford it, don’t ask stupid questions!
  • Are you a man?!? or, You call yourself a man?!? [my wife uses this one liberally, lol.]
  • Look at your (shitty) attitude! [that’s a tough one to translate]

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Most Read Stories (17-Sep-2007 8:37:57)Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 17-Sep-2007 at 8:37:57 (Beijing time):
  • Thai Airliner Carrying 130 People Crashes in Phuket
    “The airplane broke in two and caught on fire after skidding and hitting an embankment following its landing in a heavy rainstorm.”
  • Worst Wall Street Quarter Since 2001 Tempered by Goldman’s Gain
    “Fixed-income trading, the industry’s biggest source of revenue, faltered as sales of mortgage and asset-backed securities dropped 36 percent in the quarter … While revenue from takeover advice, stock trading and underwriting probably rose, it may not make up for writedowns to reflect the declining value of corporate loans and mortgage bonds.”
    This week we’ll see how fair their fair value accounting is.
  • Greenspan Sees Political Pressure on Fed as Inflation Picks Up
    “The former chairman built his projection [that ten-year Treasury yields may average 8 percent by 2030] on three economic shifts that he said can already be seen. First, the 1990s boom in productivity is fading. Second, the anti-inflation pressures from the inclusion of China and other emerging economies into the global trading system will end. Third, U.S. government budget deficits will grow. (Federal spending absorbs private savings and uses them for less productive purposes.)”
    Lots of unfortunate people had to speed-read his book over the weekend.
  • Northern Rock Remains `Solvent,’ U.K. Chancellor Says
    “Rising credit costs left Northern Rock unable to make new loans, sparking the first rescue of a U.K. lender by the central bank in 34 years … financial firms [that rely] on short-term credit rather than deposits may be vulnerable because the rate they borrow at exceeds the amount they earn from lending … Northern Rock gets 73 percent of its funding from wholesale markets rather than customer deposits … The bank’s business model isn’t viable any longer because of its dependence on wholesale funding.”
    Here’s a look at Northern Rock’s year-to-date stock chart with the excellent Top News overlay.

  • King, BOE Face `Crisis of Confidence’ Over Subprime Collapse
    “On Aug. 8 King said the threat posed by rising defaults on mortgages to U.S. borrowers with poor credit histories … was ‘not an international financial crisis,’; the next day, credit markets seized up … Two days after King told lawmakers on Sept. 12 that central banks should avoid giving the impression they will help lenders that made bad decisions, the Bank of England provided emergency funds to Northern Rock Plc in the biggest bailout of a British bank in three decades.”
    Ha! How much more out of touch could Mervyn “Intellectual Collosus” King be?
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September 16, 2007
Not Substitution or Conservation, Only DelusionFrom an interview in this week’s Barron’s with an oil analyst named Mike Rothman who sees crude going to $45 a barrel:
“I have never seen the gap between reality and the perception of reality as big as it is right now. The perception of what I call Chindia, the idea that demand growth globally is robust and is going to be led by the emerging-market economies of China and India, is still strong. It is a great idea. But when you look at the data, you will see it doesn’t match … All I know is that for the last three years, I’ve revised my numbers down for China. It is not that they are not having oil-demand growth, but it is not 15%. It is 5%. It is 4%. It is 6%. It is 3%. It ain’t 15%.”
This guy has obviously never sat for hours in rush hour traffic here in Beijing… the streets were empty just a few short years ago, maybe only one in ten households now own a car, and he’s saying oil-demand growth is going to be low single digit? C’mon.
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September 15, 2007
Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — September 14, 2007



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Stock Du Jour (CHL) & Random ObservationsChop with a negative bias — great day to lose money. All the good traders I know lose money more than half the time; they just lose very little. ;-)
Notable New Highs: Fairfax Financial (FFH), FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXI), China Medical Tech (CMED), China Mobile (CHL), Monsanto (MON), Procter & Gamble (PG), and McDonald’s (MCD).
Notable New Lows: Imation (IMN), New York Times (NYT), Bowater (BOW), Omnicare (OCR), and Harley Davidson (HOG).
I don’t own China Mobile because… I’m an IDIOT. (People forget that CHL went public in New York back in 1997.)

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(Another in the TGIF series)
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 17:28 | 显示全部楼层
September 14, 2007
A Centipede Dies But Never Falls DownThe Chinese language has some wonderful proverbs and I thought I’d share one from time to time.
百足之虫，死而不僵 (bai zu zhi chong, si er bu jiang)
A good translation for this expression is “old institutions die hard,” just like a centipede (with its 100 legs) doesn’t topple over when it dies… a useful way to think about the Party.

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Most Read Stories (14-Sep-2007 10:40:07)Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 14-Sep-2007 at 10:40:07 (Beijing time):
  • Goldman’s Global Alpha Fund Fell 22 Percent in August
    “Global Alpha’s biggest loss in the month stemmed from the managers’ decision to sell Japanese yen and buy Australian dollars. The so-called carry trade unraveled when the Australian dollar fell 6 percent against the yen in August.”
    I wonder how much leverage they’re using?
  • U.S. Stocks Rally; Countrywide, General Motors Shares Advance
    “McDonald’s [hit its] highest closing price ever. The company boosted its annual dividend by 50 percent to $1.50 a share.”
    Every morning this long-time MCD shareholder is thrilled to see hordes of Chinese office workers carrying their breakfast bags from McDonald’s.
  • Countrywide Shares Gain on $12 Billion Borrowing Deal
    “Credit-default swaps for Countrywide fell 45 basis points today, the most in three weeks, to 280 basis points. They traded as low as 265 basis points. A fall signals improving perceptions of credit quality.”
  • Bernanke Spurns Greenspan’s Quick Fix, Seeking Data
    “The MAQS (Macroeconomic and Quantitative Studies unit) are in charge of the quantitative model of the U.S. economy known as FRB/US or ‘Ferbus.’ By adjusting for such things as higher financing rates for American companies or a sharp decline in home prices, the team provides policy makers a glimpse of possible outcomes.”
    They’re just dicking around with numbers in a system that’s so complex it defies quantification — this is probably worse than doing nothing.
  • Greenspan Says He Failed to Foresee Subprime Rout
    “‘While I was aware a lot of these [lax lending] practices were going on, I had no notion of how significant they had become until very late,’ Greenspan said in the 60 Minutes interview. ‘I really didn’t get it until very late in 2005 and 2006,’ as he was about to leave office.”
    That’s quite an admission from the so-called “Maestro.”
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Stock Du Jour (CTRP) & Random ObservationsPositive bias but nothing to write home about.
Notable New Highs: Ctrip (CTRP), priceline (PCLN), Tempur Pedic (TPX), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Procter & Gamble (PG), eBay (EBAY), and McDonald’s (MCD).
Notable New Lows: PF Chang’s (PFCB), Pool (POOL), Nortel (NT), King Pharma (KG), Alcatel-Lucent (ALU), and Syntax Brillian (BRLC).
I’ll feature a monthly chart of Ctrip.com (CTRP). Every Chinese yuppie I know is an avid traveler and every one of them uses Ctrip.

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September 13, 2007
Long Term Look at Crude Oil Prices (in both USD and CNY)Here’s a quarterly chart of the price of crude going back to 1987. Note that the $10.35 low happened in the fourth quarter of 1998.

Click to enlarge
And looking at things from a Chinese perspective, you can see that the appreciation of the yuan these last few years has moderated the increase in the cost of crude somewhat, but the long-term trend is up up up.

Click to enlarge
(It costs me 220 yuan (almost US$30) to fill the tank of our little Nissan here in Beijing — the price of 93 octane is fixed at around US$2.50 a gallon — a fortune for locals, but it apparently doesn’t stop them from driving everywhere.)
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Most Read Stories (13-Sep-2007 9:49:57)Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 13-Sep-2007 at 9:49:57 (Beijing time):
  • A Wall Street Trader Learns Some Taxing Lessons
    “Great men require great diversion from their great troubles. Even the giant oil painting of himself was totally necessary: Steve [Schwarzman] — like a lot of us under 5 feet, 7 inches — tends to lose himself in his work. He needs to be reminded that he actually exists. For one night the guy tries to stand tall, and Congress responds with a new tax on platform shoes.”
    …
    “Rich people know how to invest extra money. Poor people just squander it on necessities. That’s why capitalism works so well: it keeps money out of the hands of people who don’t know how to use it and directs it to people who know how to make it grow.”
    Michael Lewis continues with his satire; love the Napoleonic Complex jab.
  • Citigroup’s Old Lane Hedge Fund Lost 5.9% in August Some dummy was quoted: “They’ve got some time to have some positive months that would more than offset the losses and put them back into contention for being a superb manager.” One bad month and you’re “out of contention,” lol. Talk about a rat race.
  • Patriots’ Belichick Apologizes for Jets Coach Taping
    “NFL security removed a Patriots employee suspected of attempting to steal the Jets’ signals and seized his video camera and tape … The Patriots have won almost 70 percent of their games since Belichick became coach in January 2000.”
    Doesn’t everybody steal everybody else’s signals?
  • London Seeks More Bankers Amid Credit-Market Turmoil
  • GMAC Bonds Rally on Citigroup’s $21 Billion Financing
    “The new credit line, which Citigroup may syndicate out to other lenders, has a one-year term. The credit line replaces a $10 billion three-year facility set in August last year. The company may pay 1.5 to 2 percentage points more than the London interbank offered rate; Libor is currently 5.7 percent. GMAC isn’t disclosing the interest rate on the new agreement.”
    Woe to those who funded (past tense) themselves by selling commercial paper backed by mortgage assets — you can only tap your credit lines for so long before they tap out. (Pray for the market to “normalize.”)
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Stock Du Jour (USO) & Random ObservationsDecent morning then things reversed at noon and went into the crapper. A good example of a day where a good read of the broad tone would have helped you manage your risk better (i.e. lose less money than you might have).
Notable New Highs: Sohu (SOHU), Baidu (BIDU), Wynn (WYNN), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Vimpel (VIP), Agrium (AGU), Celgene (CELG), Juniper (JNPR), and Procter & Gamble (PG).
Notable New Lows: Knight Capital (NITE), Progressive (PGR), Lennar (LEN), KB Home (KBH), Alcatel-Lucent (ALU), and King Pharma (KG).
Um, dumb question for my smart readers: if crude is at an all-time high, why isn’t the US Oil Fund (USO) as well? Here’s the weekly chart.

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September 12, 2007
Most Read Stories (12-Sep-2007 9:39:09)Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 12-Sep-2007 at 9:39:09 (Beijing time):
  • Fed’s Rate Cuts are ‘Problem, Not the Cure’ - Chart of the Day
    “The chart of the day compares the U.S. labor market, as measured by the non-farm payrolls report in orange, with the Fed’s key overnight rate, tracked by the white line. The arrows highlight contractions in the job market.”
    As I’ve mentioned before, the Chart of the Day column is not available on the web. Here’s the chart (meaningless, I think).
  • U.S. Stocks Advance; General Motors, McDonald’s Shares Climb
    “Energy companies gained after oil rose to a record close of $78.23 a barrel in New York.”
    Every time I sit in a traffic jam in Beijing, on the same once-empty streets I drunkenly weaved my bicycle down years ago, I think about the price of crude.
  • Countrywide Shares Fall on Report Lender Needs Cash
    “Countrywide said last week it would eliminate as many as 12,000 jobs, or 20 percent of its workforce, after investors stopped buying loans and bankers alarmed by rising subprime defaults refused to provide capital to mortgage companies.”
    Be interesting to see how the terms of this new cash infusion differ from BofA’s.
  • Retirement Funds Vanish as Bankruptcies Hit Tax-Deferred Scheme
    “1031 exchanges, named for a provision of U.S. tax law that defers capital gains taxes if the seller of a property buys another like it within six months, hold money between commercial-property sales. Transactions must be handled by so-called qualified intermediaries like 1031 exchanges, which have temporary custody of about $150 billion a year, an industry group says. They are unregulated in all but one state.”
    Fascinating, I knew nothing about this “qualified intermediary” industry (though we did study section 1031 of the Code in business school). Would you entrust your millions (or even thousands) to an unregulated entity just to dodge taxes?
  • Fed Officials Signal Division on Risks, Rate-Cut Size
    “Interest-rate futures show traders expect about 0.75 percentage point of cuts in the Fed’s target by year-end … ‘Investors’ perceptions of increased downside risks have resulted in a notable decline in the rates on federal funds futures contracts,’ San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said yesterday.”
    So Yellen is watching the fed funds futures contracts, eh? (She may even know how to use a Bloomberg.)
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Stock Du Jour (NYT) & Random ObservationsGood, solid buying from open to close — a trend day, meaning a profitable day for any day trader not spitting into the wind.
Notable New Highs: Juniper (JNPR), Baidu (BIDU), Procter & Gamble (PG), Celgene (CELG), Barrick (ABX), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Nat’l Oilwell Varco (NOV), and the gold ETF (GLD).
(People write to ask why I ignore the other gold ETF, iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU), and the answer is: liquidity. IAU has an average daily volume of around 125,000 shares whereas GLD does over 6,000,000 shares. Trade count on IAU was 315 today, on GLD it was 9,602 — no comparison in trade-ability.)
Notable New Lows: New York Times (NYT), Korn Ferry (KFY), Harley Davidson (HOG), and King Pharma (KG).
I’ll feature a weekly chart of New York Times (NYT) along with its relative performance chart (/SPY). Long time readers may recall my post from almost exactly two years ago, All the News(paper) That’s Fit to Short. Every 60 days I renew my limit order to buy NYT at $12; I’m patient. ;-)

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September 11, 2007
Check, Please! (#7 in a Series)Din Tai Fung has opened a new branch at Shin Kong Place. Here’s the check from a recent lunch there. 203 yuan is about $27 at current exchange rates so it’s not a cheap place to enjoy dumplings, but it’s clean, the service is friendly and efficient, and the food is consistently good. These are the qualities that are lacking in most local restaurants.


The Check, Please! series
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Sniff It and Smell It and Taste the Inner BodyI’ve never drunk award-winning Two Buck Chuck, but I enjoyed this profile of Fred Franzia:
“While many winemakers say they hate Franzia because he’s a bully or because he’s crude or because he operates close to one side or another of the law, Franzia believes it’s because he exposes their pretentiousness. ‘They’re trying to confuse the consumer. You either like it or you don’t like it. You shouldn’t make them feel like second-class citizens. I love to sell something you don’t have to give an excuse for.’”
My version of “you either like it or you don’t like it” is, “it either gives me a headache (bad wine) or it doesn’t (good wine).”
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 17:28 | 显示全部楼层
Stock Du Jour (EDO) & Random ObservationsChoppy, difficult day, negative in the morning, slightly positive in the afternoon, horrific close. Perfect day to lose some money day trading.
Notable New Lows: New York Times (NYT) — my buy order at $12 stands!; every homebuilder: LEN, KBH, RYL, PHM, HOV, DHI, etc.; ton of retailers: ODP, CC, CWTR, DDS, CHS; and restaurants like CAKE and RT and KKD.
Notable New Highs: VMWare (VMW), Medco (MHS), EDO (EDO), and Omnicell (OMCL).
I’ll feature a monthly chart of EDO (EDO) which I’ve never heard of (they’re in the “electronic warfare” business).

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September 10, 2007
Most Read Stories (10-Sep-2007 8:57:06)Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 10-Sep-2007 at 8:57:06 (Beijing time):
  • Treasury Rally May Falter as Overseas Holders Flee Dollar Drop
    “Overseas investors own more than half of the $4.4 trillion in marketable U.S. government debt outstanding, up from a third in 2001. Government and central bank holdings of U.S. government debt at the Fed climbed to a record $1.25 trillion in July from $574 billion in June 2001.”
    Suckers!
  • Plosser Says Fed Shouldn’t `Overweight’ Loss of Jobs
    “All 12 Fed bank presidents participate in the FOMC’s discussion on setting rates. Five of them vote on the decision, with four rotating seats and one, the New York Fed chief, that’s fixed. All members of the Washington-based Board of Governors also vote … ‘It’s a really tricky time right now,’ Plosser said in the interview. ‘Many of us are talking to bankers trying to get real-time data,’ he said.”
    It would be fascinating to learn how many of the 12 Fed bank presidents know how to use the Bloomberg — Charlie Plosser obviously ain’t one of them.
  • Credit Agricole, Lukoil, Samsung Battered Into Cheapest Stocks
    “Lukoil, based in Moscow, trades at 8.3 times estimated profit, compared with 12.5 for Irving, Texas-based Exxon. The Russian oil producer is valued at $3.30 for every barrel of proven oil reserves, while Exxon and Paris-based Total SA, Europe’s third-biggest oil company, trade at more than $13 per barrel.”
    If this guy would put his shirt back on, I’d feel more comfortable buying Russian energy stocks.
  • Japan’s Economy Contracts a More-Than-Expected 1.2%
  • Yen Rises to Three-Week High Against Dollar as Stocks Tumble
    “The yen appreciated the most against New Zealand’s dollar, a popular target for carry trades because of the nation’s 7.75 percentage point interest-rate advantage over Japan. It rose 1.1 percent to 77.50 per New Zealand dollar. ‘Yen funded carry trades were unwound with vigor.’”
    Vigor led to rigor, or is it the other way around? ;-)
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September 8, 2007
Stock Du Jour (KSS) & Random ObservationsStrong, continuous selling from open to close, reminds me of those terrible days in mid-August.
Notable New Highs: DryShips (DRYS), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Barrick (ABX), and the Gold ETF (GLD).
Notable New Lows: Krispy Kreme (KKD), Coldwater Creek (CWTR), Circuit City (CC), Kohl’s (KSS), Office Depot (ODP), DR Horton (DHI), Ryland (RYL), Lennar (LEN), KB Home (KBH), — the Homebuilders continue to tumble which is what all those massive head & shoulders tops on their monthly charts (not just Lennar, but *all* of them) “predicted” — Legg Mason (LM), Finisar (FNSR), Progressive (PGR), Omnicare (OCR), Nortel (NT), and Harley Davidson (HOG).
With all these restaurants and retailers on the new lows list it’s pretty obvious that the market is anticipating a recession. I’ll feature a monthly chart of Kohl’s (KSS), which looks a little better than Wal-Mart but it’s the same department store story: Nowhere for lo these many years.

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September 7, 2007
Most Read Stories (7-Sep-2007 9:30:17)Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 7-Sep-2007 at 9:30:17 (Beijing time):
  • CPDOs Rated AAA May Risk Default, CreditSights Says
    “Constant proportion debt obligations earn an income by selling credit-default swaps, a type of insurance contract that pays a buyer face value if the borrower can’t meet payments on its debt. CPDOs typically provide debt insurance on a basket of 250 investment-grade companies by using the benchmark CDX North America Investment- Grade Index and the iTraxx index in Europe. The indexes rise when credit quality deteriorates.”
    Add CPDO to the alphabet soup of stuff that I don’t understand. Blogger Accrued Interest claims that CreditSights is stealing his post titles for their reports.
  • U.K., Norway Send Jets to Intercept Russian Aircraft
    “Russian President Vladimir Putin on Aug. 17 ordered the resumption of regular flights by strategic bombers, which were halted in 1992 following the breakup of the Soviet Union.”
    I knew there was going to be trouble when Putin started stripping for the cameras. The upside is NATO pilots are less bored than usual.
  • Countrywide Drops Below Bank of America’s Deal Price
    “Bank of America, the second-largest U.S. bank, bought preferred stock on Aug. 22 that can be converted to common shares at $18. The preferred shares are convertible at any time, though once exchanged for common stock they will be subject to trading restrictions for 18 months.”
    In time that $18 conversion price will prove to be a crazy bargain. (Or maybe I’m just as crazy as the guys running BofA.)
  • U.S. Home Foreclosures, Delinquencies at Record High
    “The percentage of subprime borrowers making late payments increased to 14.82 from 13.77 … Almost half of the foreclosures started during the quarter were on subprime adjustable-rate mortgages. Those types of loans represent just 7.3 percent of all outstanding mortgages.”
    Makes you wonder why people are panicking … 85.18% of all subprime borrowers are making their payments on time, and 92.7% of all mortgages are prime.
  • Pavarotti, Most Famous Opera Tenor Since Caruso, Dies
    “His mainstreaming of opera to venues outside the traditional concert hall and turning himself into a pop star led critics to accuse him of blatant commercialism.”
    I have to admit I cringed at every one of Pavarotti’s “duets” with Sting or Bono or Sinatra or whoever, charity be damned, but then again I’m a terrible snob.
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Stock Du Jour (GLD) & Random ObservationsA bit choppy but mainly a positive bias in the afternoon. There’s a new agribusiness ETF, ticker symbol MOO (I love it).
Notable New Highs: MS China A (CAF), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Weatherford (WFT), Juniper (JNPR), Nokia (NOK), Biogen (BIIB), Barrick (ABX), and the gold ETF (GLD).
Notable New Lows: SourceForge (LNUX), Korn Ferry (KFY), Dillard’s (DDS), Ryland (RYL), Progressive (PGR), Nortel (NT), and Finisar (FNSR).
The Gold ETF (GLD) moved to a new 52-week high though it’s still below its May 2006 all-time high. Gold is a play on dollar weakness (among other things), and if there’s one thing that’s absolutely assured, it’s dollar weakness. (I may have just put the bottom in the DXY — nah.)

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September 6, 2007
Most Read Stories (6-Sep-2007 8:41:09)Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 6-Sep-2007 at 8:41:09 (Beijing time):
  • Seth Tobias, Hedge-Fund Boss and TV Commentator, Dies
    “Tobias’s family has a history of coronary disease, said Spence Tobias, Seth’s brother and a money manager at Circle T. ‘It was apparently a heart attack,’ he said by telephone from New York.”
    Only 44 years old … reminds me to get the ticker checked out at the end of October.
  • A Wall Street Trader Draws Some Subprime Lessons
    “People complain about the rich getting richer and the poor being left behind. Is it any wonder? Look at them! Did it ever occur to even one of them that they might pay me back by WORKING HARDER? I don’t think so.”
    Satire from Michael Lewis.
  • Commercial Real Estate in U.S. Poised for Price Drop
    “Commercial mortgage rates have climbed as defaults rose in the subprime part of the residential real estate market. About six months ago, a 30-year commercial loan with 5 to 10 years of interest-only payments would have cost the borrower about 120 basis points more than the yield of the 10-year Treasury note. A similar loan would now cost about 160 to 200 basis points more than the 10-year Treasury’s yield of 4.6 percent.”
    Hap Stein gets it just right: “As far as the pricing of credit, it was greed six months ago and it’s fear today.”
  • Global Stocks, U.S. Futures Decline; Citigroup, Bradford Drop
    “The overnight deposit rate for euros rose to a six-year high, prompting calls for the European Central Bank to supply more cash.”
  • Citigroup to Shut Tribeca Hedge Fund, Expand Old Lane
    “Citigroup’s alternatives division oversees about $59 billion including real estate and private-equity assets. It has about $23 billion in hedge-fund assets, including client money allocated to outside managers … Old Lane began operating with $3.7 billion in assets, the second-largest start by a hedge fund in 2006.”
    Even a “large” hedge fund like Old Lane runs a relatively small amount of money.
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Stock Du Jour (WMT) & Random ObservationsSelling from the get-go, continued all day, a typical trend day.
Notable New Highs: MS China A (CAF), Denstply (XRAY), Fluor (FLR), Oceaneering Int’l (OII), Onyx Pharma (ONXX), Nuance (NUAN), and Weatherford (WFT).
Notable New Lows: Health Management Assoc (HMA), Coldwater Creek (CWTR), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Blackstone (BX), Finisar (FNSR), and Wal-Mart (WMT).
I’ll feature a monthly chart of Wal-Mart (WMT) for some perspective. The stock price has gone nowhere lo these many years and has massively underperformed the S&P 500 since the start of the new bull market in early 2003. The stock looks dirt cheap to me, but I’m just looking at its numbers and not anticipating a recession. The stock chart is saying that the “support” of many years right around $42 may give way.
This is another case where the chartists would say run away and the fundamentalists would say come to papa.

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September 5, 2007
Most Read Stories (5-Sep-2007 9:29:06)Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 5-Sep-2007 at 9:29:06 (Beijing time):
  • Recession Risk Rises as Consumers Feel Credit Tighten
  • Synapse Shuts Fund Because of Market `Illiquidity’
    “The Wall Street Journal reported earlier today that Synapse was forced to shut the ABS fund after SachsenLB asked for its money back.”
    I’m confused by all of these “Sachsens” … Goldman Sachsens?
  • Deutsche Bank Chief Says Markets Are Stabilizing
    “Deutsche Bank has continued to be able to access financing, the CEO said. Asset-backed commercial-paper affiliates to which Deutsche Bank provides funding hold assets of 32 billion euros … IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG and Landesbank Sachsen Girozentrale had to receive emergency funding last month to keep them afloat after vehicles that they supported couldn’t refinance in the markets.”
    Sachsen sucks ‘em?
  • Cheapest Stocks in Almost 12 Years Greet Investors
    “The S&P 500 Diversified Financials Index last month was valued at 10.6 times earnings, the cheapest since at least 1995.”
    And when you search through the financial stocks one by one, you can find some incredibly cheap stocks (all of which I’ve already bought).
  • Fed, Blamed for Asset-Price Inaction, Is Told `Tide Is Turning’
    “… the central bank’s oversight of mortgage lending is limited. The Fed doesn’t supervise non-banks, such as finance companies … [one participant] warned that if the central bank doesn’t tackle the loose lending standards that contributed to the housing bubble, politicians will, potentially doing more damage. U.S. legislators blame the central bank for insufficient action to stop predatory lending practices … The central bank has historically favored refraining from dictating rules, focusing instead on disclosure and education so borrowers can make their own, informed decisions.”
    I am completely opposed to the idea that the Fed should “lean” against asset prices … that line “regulation induces innovation to offset regulations” reminds me of the wonderful Chinese expression: 上有政策下有对策。 Education clearly hasn’t worked since 99 out of 100 people are financially illiterate (innumerate), i.e. “don’t know the lingo,” but it’s still the best approach. In a perfect world borrowers would make their own, informed decisions, but in reality they’re a bunch of blundering boobs and nitwits.
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Stock Du Jour (HPQ) & Random ObservationsVery solid day of buying, the best tone I’ve seen since August 17th. This makes four consecutive days where the buyers were in complete control.
Notable New Highs: Very packed list, hard to choose the Notables… Overstock.com (OSTK), MS China A Share (CAF), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Hong Kong (EWH), Monsanto (MON), Weatherford (WFT), NVIDIA (NVDA), Hewlett Packard (HPQ), and Schlumberger (SLB).
Notable New Lows: Cost Plus (CPWM), delias (DLIA), and Health Management Associates (HMA).
I’ll feature a monthly chart of Hewlett Packard (HPQ) for some perspective on its 78% drop during the tech bust and 400+% rise since the bottom of the bear.

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 17:30 | 显示全部楼层
September 1, 2007
Stock Du Jour (DE) & Random ObservationsNice solid strong day of buying from the get-go through to the close.
Notable New Highs: priceline.com (PCLN), LDK Solar (LDK), Deere (DE), Raytheon (RTN), Nat’l Oilwell Varco (NOV), NVIDIA (NVDA), and Research in Motion (RIMM).
Notable New Lows: Coldwater Creek (CWTR), Christopher (CBK), Cost Plus (CPWM), delias (DLIA), and SourceForge (LNUX).
I’ll feature a monthly chart of Deere (DE) which closed at an all-time high.

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(Another in the TGIF series)
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Most Read Stories (31-Aug-2007 9:39:44)Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 31-Aug-2007 at 9:39:44 (Beijing time):
  • U.S. Stocks Retreat, Led By Banks; Goldman, Merrill Shares Fall
    “Freddie Mac fell the most in four years after the second-biggest U.S. mortgage finance company said the housing slump cut profit by 45 percent … Freddie Mac owns or guarantees about one in every five U.S. residential mortgages.”
  • Bernanke May Hear Call for Fed Activism on Regulation
    “Aside from considering a greater focus on asset prices, the Fed needs to explore whether it should coax or require additional disclosures from banks and hedge funds.”
  • Hamptons Helicopter Gridlock Stirs Up Air Rage on the Ground
    “Flyers [paying $400-$800 one way] avoid a drive that can take over three hours or a Long Island Rail Road commute that’s, at best, 2 hours, 16 minutes.”
  • Unsafe at Any Rating, CDO Speeds to CCC From AAA
    “You left the office Tuesday owning a AAA rated security. By the time you got back to your desk on Wednesday morning, it was eight steps below investment grade in a category S&P defines as ‘currently vulnerable to nonpayment.’ Try explaining that to your pension-fund trustees … ‘The [structured investment] vehicles are not structured to forcibly liquidate assets in times of crisis,’ Moody’s said. Their ability to access several sources of finance ‘obviates the need to liquidate large buckets of assets at potentially the worst period in the life of the vehicle.’”
    Sounds like Moody’s risk assessments and methodology require further “refinement.”
  • Seeking Sex Is Now a Crime, Senator Craig Learns
    “If homosexual conduct is even alleged against a closeted man, he has to either choose the quickest and quietest resolution possible or risk revealing the truth. That would probably mean losing his job, his family, the respect of his community.”
    Or he could issue a statement similar to Sir Norman Fry’s
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Stock Du Jour (NOK) & Random ObservationsDecent morning of buying, a little shakeout after 2PM, but a positive day all things considered.
Notable New Highs: Raytheon (RTN), Biogen (BIIB), Vimpel (VIP), Nokia (NOK), and Sigma Designs (SIGM).
Notable New Lows: Mueller Water (MWA), InfoSpace (INSP), Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), Chico’s (CHS), and Coldwater Creek (CWTR). Readers may recall my post from just about a year ago: Chico’s Outlook Turns a Little Bleak-o.
I’ll feature a monthly chart of Nokia (NOK) showing its ups and downs lo these many years. I have a RAZR which my fashion-conscious young friends find hopelessly out of date — cellphones by Samsung, Sony Ericsson and yes, Nokia, are very popular here. (Be interesting to see what the ratio of men to women is with the RAZR — I bet very few women bought one.)

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August 30, 2007
Most Read Stories (30-Aug-2007 9:25:02)Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 30-Aug-2007 at 9:25:02 (Beijing time):
  • Worst Is Yet to Come for U.S. Housing Market: Chart of the Day I don’t think this story is available on the web; maybe I’ll replicate the chart later if I have time. Update: The Chart of the Day column (NI CHART [GO]) is exclusive to the Bloomberg, I believe — don’t worry, it’s often lame. Here’s today’s chart.
  • U.S. Stocks Rally; Technology Paces Rebound on Seagate Outlook
  • Fed Underestimated Debt Impact, Focused on Inflation
    “… financing remains costly or constrained for riskier securities and loans. Interest rates on jumbo mortgages, or those greater than $417,000, have soared to 106 basis points more than the cost of smaller mortgages, from 39 basis points at the start of the month.”
  • Cheyne May Liquidate Commercial Paper Unit on Losses
    “More than 20 companies, including San Francisco-based Luminent Mortgage Capital Inc. and Thornburg Mortgage Co. in Santa Fe, New Mexico, have been unable to roll over asset-backed commercial paper. Thornburg said earlier this month that it sold $20.5 billion of securities at about 95 cents on the dollar to pay down commercial paper it couldn’t refinance.”
    Borrowing short to lend long is a good trick until you lose the ability to borrow short.
  • U.S. MBA’s Mortgage Applications Index Dropped 4%
    “The average rate on a one-year adjustable mortgage surged to 6.51 percent, the highest since January 2001, from 5.84 percent the prior week. The rate also surpassed the cost of a 30-year fixed loan for the first time … The average rate on a 30-year fixed loan fell to 6.41 percent last week, from 6.49 percent. At that rate, monthly borrowing costs for each $100,000 of a loan would have been about $626, little changed from a year ago. … Banks ‘are being very cautious in the volume of prime adjustables they are putting on their balance sheets….’”
    Great caution only appears after years of throwing caution to the wind, of course.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 17:30 | 显示全部楼层
August 30, 2007
Stock Du Jour (SCON) & Random ObservationsBuying from the get-go, very strong, solid day not unlike August 8 … not as strong as August 17 but still accelerated buying all afternoon with a strong close.
Notable New Highs: Sigma Designs (SIGM), Onyx Pharma (ONXX), Nokia (NOK), and Superconductor Tech (SCON) continues to continue.
Notable New Lows: Progressive (PGR), Triad Guaranty (TGIC), and SourceForge (LNUX).
I’ll feature an hourly chart of Superconductor Tech (SCON) since it began its run around seven days ago. SCON’s float is only 12.4 million shares so crazy moves can happen.

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August 29, 2007
Warren Buffett, Teenage Chart Fiend, Grows UpGreat quote (among many in this video series) from Buffett:
“I was very fortunate because I picked up a book [Graham & Dodd’s Security Analysis] when I was nineteen … I got interested in stocks when I was about six or seven and then I bought my first stock when I was eleven, but I was playing around with all this stuff, you know I had charts and volume and I’m making all kinds of technical calculations and everything, and then I picked up a little book and it just said that you’re not buying some little ticker symbol that bounces around every day, you’re buying a part of a business. As soon as I started thinking about it that way, everything else followed.”
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Most Read Stories (29-Aug-2007 9:08:40)Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 29-Aug-2007 at 9:08:40 (Beijing time):
  • U.S. Stocks Fall Most in Three Weeks; Lehman Leads Banks Lower
    “Citigroup Inc., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos. led all 93 financial companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lower….”
  • Who’s Advising on ABN? Only 19 Insist `I’m Spartacus’
    “A handful of the firms will get the lion’s share of what New York-based Freeman & Co. estimates to be as much as $459 million in M&A fees because most are providing limited services for their clients…. Bankers may collect another $170 million for underwriting the stocks and bonds needed to finance the acquisition.”
  • Fed Put Inflation Skepticism Above Credit Concern
    “‘For the present, however, given expectations that the most likely outcome for the economy was continued moderate growth, the upside risks to inflation remained the most significant policy concern.’ … They noted that ‘mortgage loans remained readily available to most potential borrowers,’ and the ’supply of credit to finance real investment did not appear significantly diminished.’”
    Channeling Jim Cramer: THEY’RE NUTS! THEY KNOW NOTHING!! THE FED IS ASLEEP!!!
  • European Stocks Decline; SocGen, Deutsche Bank Pace the Retreat
    “National benchmarks decreased in all 18 western European markets except Greece.”
  • U.S. Home Prices Fell by Record in Second Quarter
    “Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell 3.5 percent in June from a year before, the most since S&P/Case-Shiller began compiling the index in 2001 … S&P/Case-Shiller’s 10-city composite index, which has a longer history, declined 4.1 percent from June 2006. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange last year began offering futures contracts based on that index.”
    How liquid are those contracts? (I’ve never looked.)
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Stock Du Jour (XHB Again) & Random ObservationsSelling from the get-go, never let up all day long with a very weak close. On the bright side, even though the tone was very bad, it wasn’t as terrible as those days earlier this month (Aug. 1, 3, 9, 14, 15, 16, etc.).
Notable New Highs: PolyMedica (PLMD).
Notable New Lows: dELIA*s (DLIA), Borland (BORL), Timberland (TBL), Barclay’s (BCS), Cnet (CNET), Chico’s (CHS), Tenet Healthcare (THC), and every homebuilder out there: DHI, CTX, LEN, HOV, etc. (You may recall this post on Lennar.)
I’ll feature a weekly chart of the Homebuilders ETF (XHB) about which I’ve been wrong, wrong, and wrong (well, not all that bad if you read all the posts ;-)). Picking the point of “maximum pessimism” is a tricky business.

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August 28, 2007
Thoughts on Body Odor and Dairy ProductsI think I’m genetically predisposed to suffer from some serious body odor (B.O.). One thing I do to keep the stink down is watch what I eat. Garlic and onions obviously kick things up a notch, but the number one culprit I’ve found is dairy products: milk, cheese, yogurt, ice cream, and butter all contribute to taking me to B.B.O. (Beyond Body Odor — an old Seinfeld joke), so I studiously avoid eating them.
I used to play poker with a guy in Atlantic City who was 57 years old but he looked 27 (I swear it). When I asked him the secret of his youthful good looks, he said NEVER EAT DAIRY. (He was also extremely fit.)
I’m interested in my readers thoughts on how to limit B.O. through diet, what are the best and worst foods to eat, and confirmations that dairy products are best avoided if you want to smell pretty. Do you stink? Please share!
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Paying the Bill that Follows the BingeFrom Jim Grant’s recent op-ed piece in the New York Times, The Fed’s Subprime Solution:
“Ben S. Bernanke is said to be resisting the demand for broadly lower interest rates. Maybe he is seeing the light that capitalism without financial failure is not capitalism at all, but a kind of socialism for the rich … Jiggling its interest rate, the Fed can impose the appearance of stability today, but only at the cost of instability tomorrow. By the looks of things, tomorrow is upon us already.”
- via Barry Ritholtz -
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Simply a Stage of Capitalist DevelopmentA nation of outlaws, by Stephen Mihm
Professor Mihm offers some “much-needed perspective.”
“What’s happening halfway around the world may be disturbing, even disgraceful, but it’s hardly foreign. A century and a half ago, another fast-growing nation had a reputation for sacrificing standards to its pursuit of profit, and it was the United States.
As with China and Harry Potter, America was a hotbed of literary piracy; like China’s poisonous pet-food makers, American factories turned out adulterated foods and willfully mislabeled products. Indeed, to see China today is to glimpse, in a distant mirror, the 19th-century American economy in all its corner-cutting, fraudulent glory.”
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Most Read Stories (28-Aug-2007 9:23:10)Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 28-Aug-2007 at 9:23:10 (Beijing time):
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Stock Du Jour (CAF) & Random ObservationsSelling all day long… a little rally attempted at 2 PM but it didn’t last long, reversed and closed weakly.
Notable New Lows: St. Joe (JOE), US Natural Gas (UNG), and Neurochem (NRMX).
Notable New Highs: China SPDR (GXC), China Southern Air (ZNH), Yazhou Coal (YZC), Morgan Stanley China (CAF), China Unicom (CHU), China Mobile (CHL), FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXI), China Life (LFC), Aluminum Corp of China (ACH) — I’m beginning to sense a theme here — NVIDIA (NVDA), Onyx Pharma (ONXX), and Superconductor Tech (SCON), which is up a little bit in the past five days (from $1.54 to $5.94).
I’ll feature a weekly chart of the Morgan Stanley China A closed-end fund (CAF), which I first mentioned back in April. I’ve shut up about China stocks being overvalued and quit trying to pick a top, so the end may well be nigh. (See, I can’t help myself.)

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August 27, 2007
Chasing “Tail Risk”A typically good piece (over 8,000 words but worth it) from Michael Lewis on the “culture of catastrophe.”
“John Seo thinks that much of the academic literature about finance is nonsense…. ‘These academics couldn’t understand the fact that they couldn’t beat the markets,’ he says. ‘So they just said it was efficient. And, ‘Oh, by the way, here’s a ton of math you don’t understand.'’ He notes that smart risk-takers with no gift for theory often end up with smart solutions to taking extreme financial risk — answers that often violate the academic theories. (’The markets are usually way ahead of the math.’) He prides himself on his ability to square book smarts with horse sense. As one of his former bosses puts it, ‘John was known as the man who could price anything, and his pricing felt right to people who didn’t understand his math.’”
- via kedrosky.com -
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 17:31 | 显示全部楼层
August 25, 2007
Stock Du Jour (GME) & Random ObservationsGood, solid, strong day of buying.
Notable New Lows: Sonic Solutions (SNIC), China Sunenergy (CSUN), US Natural Gas (UNG), and Beacon Roofing Supply (BECN).
Notable New Highs: FTSE/Xinhua China ETF (FXI), China Life (LFC), Aluminum Corp of China (ACH), China Mobile (CHL), TJX (TJX), Gamestop (GME), Blue Coat Sys. (BCSI), and Biogen (BIIB).
I’ll feature a monthly chart of Gamestop (GME) since it came public in February 2002. I never play video games, but apparently others do. ;-)

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(Another in the TGIF series)
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August 24, 2007
Most Read Stories (24-Aug-2007 9:54:38)Is anybody reading these posts? They seem to generate very few comments.
Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 24-Aug-2007 at 9:54:38 (Beijing time):
  • Bank of America’s Countrywide Purchase Boosts Stocks
    “Bank of America gets shares that yield 7.25 percent and can be converted into common stock at a price of $18. While the shares are convertible at any time, Bank of America will be subject to trading restrictions for 18 months. [This] will increase Countrywide’s shares by 19 percent, diluting earnings for holders of common stock, and add $145 million annually in preferred dividends. Converting the preferred stock would give Bank of America 111 million common shares, or a 16 percent stake in Countrywide.”
    Smart move on BofA’s part
  • Goldman Global Equity Hedge Fund Rises 12% After Cash Infusion
    “‘Usually such behavior causes first pain and then opportunity.’” — James Simons
    Right, but the pained are usually in no position to grab the opportunity even if they recognize it (unless you’re Goldman).
  • Commercial Paper Has Biggest Weekly Drop Since 2000
    “‘The commercial paper market, in terms of the asset-backed commercial paper market, is basically history.’” — Bill(ionaire) Gross
  • Joe Montana’s Firm Says Fund Declined 12% in August
    “‘What changed in August was the apparent de-leveraging of quantitative equity market neutral funds as a source of greatest liquidity when there was none to be had in equity portfolios.’”
    Say whaaaaa?
  • U.S. Stocks Fall, Led by Materials Producers; Home Depot Drops
    “‘The crisis is far from over, but I think, related to Countrywide, we’re in better shape today than we were yesterday.’” — Angelo Mozilo
    I’m chuckling, Angie. What about tomorrow?
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Stock Du Jour (CFC Intraday Again) & Random ObservationsNegative from the get-go which is surprising given the Countrywide news (CFC popped and dropped badly on ~150,000 trades) … mild selling during the day but clearly a negative bias.
Notable New Lows: Children’s Place (PLCE), Flamel (FLML), and New York & Co. (NWY).
Notable New Highs: priceline.com (PCLN), Omnivision (OVTI), China Mobile (CHL), Blue Coat Sys. (BCSI), and Gamestop (GME).
I’ll feature a 15-minute all-sessions chart of Countrywide (CFC) to show how the market digested the BofA news — ugly.

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August 23, 2007
Most Read Stories (23-Aug-2007 10:05:21)Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 23-Aug-2007 at 10:05:21 (Beijing time):
  • Bonuses on Wall Street Threatened by Credit Crunch
    “… the subprime-mortgage collapse already has drained the punch bowl.”
    Ha! Proof once again that all you need to get a “Most Read” story is putting the word “Bonuses” in the title.
  • Lehman Brothers Shuts Down Subprime Unit, Fires 1,200
    “‘Market conditions have necessitated a substantial reduction in resources and capacity in the subprime space,’ the New York-based firm said today.”
    How’s that for a pile of crap jargon: “conditions,” “necessitated,” “reduction in resources,” and the ever popular “space.” Translation: the market went to hell so we had to fire a bunch of people in our dumb lending to even dumber borrowers unit.
  • Builder in Spain Crashes, Founder Keeps New York Pad
    “Spanish house prices have surged since the 1990s, fueled by a drop in interest rates, increasing incomes and a boom in vacation home purchases by Germans, Britons and other Northern Europeans.”
    Interesting boom/bust story, especially the bit about changes in zoning laws.
  • Lehman, Accredited, HSBC Shut Offices; Crisis Spreads
    “More than 20 companies have been shut out of the market for asset-backed commercial paper, or short-term debt maturing in 270 days or less, as investors balked at buying mortgage-backed debt.”
  • Bernanke’s Strategy of Increasing Liquidity Survives
    “‘The markets that are under more stress are the high-yield market, non-agency mortgage markets, collateralized debt obligations and collateralized loan obligations markets and extendible asset-backed paper. Those are markets that we’re watching closely.’” — Hank Paulson
    You’re not the only one watching closely, Hank.
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Stock Du Jour (NVDA) & Random ObservationsSolid buying all day, not rabid by any means, but positive action through the day.
Notable New Lows: Tween Brands (TWB)
Notable New Highs: Overstock.com (OSTK), 1-800 Flowers (FLWS), Fossil (FOSL), Zumiez (ZUMZ), China Mobile (CHL), Bally (BYI), Blue Coat Systems (BCSI), and Nvidia (NVDA).
I’ll feature a monthly chart of Nvidia (NVDA) going back to its IPO in January 1999.

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August 22, 2007
Most Read Stories (22-Aug-2007 9:22:52)Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 22-Aug-2007 at 9:22:52 (Beijing time):
  • Commercial Paper Market Roiled With $550 Billion Due
    “‘There’s still a huge problem in the credit markets. [The market] is unwinding because no one wants to own A1/P1 asset-backed commercial paper. That’s just crazy. If it’s backed by subprime, all right. If it’s backed by junk, get out. But if it’s backed by high-quality receivables from Macy’s or triple As from us, that market should be functioning and that market has stopped functioning.'’ — another good quote from Garrett Thornburg
  • Hedge Fund Manager, Intent on Market, Misses Maserati
    “‘I was distracted by the market turmoil [and didn’t notice that my $160,000 Maserati Cambiocorsa had been impounded by London authorities],’ said Des Pallieres, who doesn’t use the car during the week because he can walk to his office in the St. James’s district of London in 15 minutes.”
    This kind of amusing story *always* gets spread quickly on the Bloomberg.
  • Bank of England Says It Loaned 314 Million Pounds at 6.75% To whom one wonders?
  • Fed Expects Markets Will Take Days to Digest Rate Cut
    “Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad yesterday called for the resignation of St. Louis Fed Bank President William Poole. Conrad, a North Dakota Democrat, said in a statement it was ‘irresponsible’ for Poole to say in an Aug. 15 interview that only a ‘calamity’ would justify a rate cut.”
    Reminds me of the Woody Allen quote that politicians are a notch beneath child molesters.
  • Home Foreclosures Almost Double in July as Rates Rise
    “The three phases of foreclosure: the process begins when a borrower defaults on loan payments and the lender files a public default notice, called a notice of default or lis pendens. If the borrower doesn’t make monthly payments after that time, the property goes to auction. The third phase begins when the lender takes ownership of the house, also called REO, or ‘real estate owned.’”
    Closely related to the five stages of grief?
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Stock Du Jour (VMW) & Random ObservationsMild buying all day long … very constant but very mild.
Notable New Highs: Research in Motion (RIMM), VMWare (VMW), Nuance (NUAN), and Washington Federal (WFSL).
Notable New Lows: UST (UST), Oplink Comm. (OPLK), and Plains Exploration (PXP).
I’ll feature an intraday chart of VMWare (VMW), a strong new issue which set up nicely for Dummies.

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 17:32 | 显示全部楼层
TreasuryBills.comHere’s a chart for people who might be confused by that recent quote from a trader: “Treasury bills right now are trading like dot-coms.” This is what “one way trading” looks like, a mad rush into bills, price be damned. (This is a yield chart for the one month T Bill — it traded as low as 1.25% yesterday, yowza.)

Click to enlarge
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Impact of Temporary Measures Perfectly Clear: They’re UselessImpact of China’s Car Curb On Smog Is Unclear, by Mei Fong
“Beijing’s temporary limits barred cars with license plate numbers ending in odd or even numbers from entering the city on alternate days. Transgressors were fined US$13. The effort removed some 1.3 million vehicles from the roads each day — more than a third of the city’s total, making Beijing’s normally clogged roads a breeze for those drivers who remained.”
Bull. We drove out to the Summer Palace on Saturday (our plate ends in ‘2′ so we could use the car that day), and my wife observed: “Every single car with an even-numbered plate is on the road today.” People who normally would stay home didn’t because of the “opportunity” to come out, so the traffic was still awful. Economists must have a term for this phenomenon, but I don’t know it.
And of course the air quality didn’t improve a bit and the pollution here was as horrific as ever.
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Most Read Stories (21-Aug-2007 9:49:02)Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 21-Aug-2007 at 9:49:02 (Beijing time):
  • Bernanke’s `Rookie Mistake’ Forces Fed to Shift Focus to Market (Still #1)
  • Subprime Infects $300 Billion of Money Market Funds, Hikes Risk
    “Until recently, CDOs had been the fasted-growing debt market — outpacing corporate and municipal bond sales by dollar total — with about $500 billion sold in 2006, up from $99 billion in 2003 … About a quarter of the content of all CDOs sold last year in the U.S. was made up of securitized subprime mortgage loans.
    Vanguard Group Inc., the second-largest mutual fund company in the U.S., has a policy of never buying CDO commercial paper for its $90 billion in money market funds or $325 billion in fixed-income mutual funds.
    ‘It really gets down to transparency questions,’ says John Hollyer, risk management director at Valley Forge, Pennsylvania-based Vanguard. ‘Can you understand what you have? And can you measure it appropriately? We haven’t been comfortable that we could.’”
    A rare 4,080 word article. Our money market fund, and most of our USD investment, is with Vanguard.
  • Treasury Bill Yields Fall Most Since 1987 on Money Fund Demand
    “Bill yields have fallen five straight days as money market funds dumped asset-backed commercial paper in favor of the shortest-maturity government debt … ‘Bills right now are trading like dot-coms’ … The TED spread is larger than after the 1987 crash.”
  • Solent Capital May Have to Sell Mainsail Fund Assets
    “Solent Capital may be forced to sell assets in a unit that buys mortgage-backed securities after lenders refused to provide short-term funding.”
  • Thornburg Sells Securities to Revive Home Lending
    “Companies that specialize in home loans are scrambling to line up new credit, pay down debt or raise cash as investors shun mortgages and banks cut off credit … As of Aug. 17, [Thornburg’s] book value stood at $12.40, compared with $14.28 on Aug. 13 and $19.38 on June 30.
    ‘Through no actions of ours and through minimal risk-taking on the part of the company, we had to incur a $930 million loss in order to be sure that the company survives. We don’t have bad loans, we don’t have a bad credit portfolio, we spent 14 years building a reputation as a premier, high-quality mortgage company, and in one week the market has destroyed a lot of that value and a lot of that hard work.’”
    Who said markets are rational? Folks who are able to buy these good assets at distressed prices are going to make out like bandits.
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Stock Du Jour (MHP) & Random ObservationsMixed day, basically flat or choppy until after 2 PM when some buying kicked in, but nothing to write home about. Countrywide Financial (CFC) is kind of a bellwether stock at the moment: it closed down 8.75% from open on ~100,000 trades. Why is CFC so important? From the WSJ: “Countrywide is a major force in the market for jumbo mortgages, those greater than $417,000. By law, the government-sponsored mortgage investors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac cannot buy these big mortgages.”
Notable New Highs: Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) and Cepheid (CPHD).
Notable New Low: McGraw Hill (MHP).
I’ll feature a weekly chart of McGraw Hill (parent of Standard & Poors) which hit an all-time high in June 2007 and is down 34% since then.

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August 20, 2007
CMBS BBB- Spread Widens to 475 bpsMorgan Stanley’s Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities BBB- Index hit 475 last Friday (August 17), which totally blows away the peak hit during the Russian debt default / LTCM collapse.
(When you look at the monthly subprime mortgage reset schedule I posted the other day, it makes you shudder. The amount of money involved in the mortgage-backed securities market is staggering.)

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The Emptor is Plenty CaveatHaggling for Hot Dogs, bu Tom Chiarella
“What if I opened every transaction to a haggle? What if I made my own bid on a TiVo? A counteroffer on dry cleaning? What if I treated the list price for a dress shirt as merely a suggestion? Could I insert myself into every transaction so that price wasn’t so much of an absolute? I wanted to know. For three months, I would haggle everything that came my way, insisting to everyone who would listen that price was a fluid force, a matter of argument.”
Great, old (Feb. 2005) article from Esquire.
Instruction from Herbie Cohen, Godfather of Negotation:
“[You have to deal with the people who have a stake in the sale.] You have to speak to the right people–the people with the power to make changes. Don’t offer them less money without giving them anything in return. You always have something to offer. Loyalty. Future business. Increased volume. Whatever. You have to think about their needs. You have to create an offer that gives something rather than takes it away. Humanize yourself. Make them understand your life before you make an offer, and allow others the space to tell their story.”
More articles by Tom Chiarella. (I love his stuff.)
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Most Read Stories (20-Aug-2007 9:23:37)I plan to make this into a daily post; let me know what you think.
Here are the top five most read stories on the Bloomberg in the last day with selected excerpts (and my comments, if any, in italics).
As of 20-Aug-2007 at 9:23:37 (Beijing time):
  • Bernanke’s `Rookie Mistake’ Forces Fed to Shift Focus to Market
    “‘It was a rookie mistake,’ said Kenneth Thomas, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School in Philadelphia. The Fed ‘underestimated liquidity needs’ of investors and the fallout from the housing recession, he said, adding, ‘This demonstrates the difference between book-smart and street-smart.’”
  • Campbell, John Henry Get Losses as Subprime Devours Carry Trade
    “In one of the more popular carry trades, a U.S. investor who borrowed in yen to buy high-yielding Australian dollars enjoyed a return of 11 percent this year through June 5, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The gains have since been wiped out.”
  • Stocks May Grow More Volatile After Fed’s Rate Cut
  • Fed Cuts Discount Rate, Recognizing Need to Stem Credit Crisis
    “The discount window can still serve a major role. The day after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, the Fed lent banks $46 billion, more than 200 times the daily average over the prior month. It was like opening the ‘floodgates of a great dam,’ then-Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson said.”
  • Fukui Will Keep Pushing for Higher Rates, Defying Abe
    “… the danger that leaving borrowing costs abnormally low will fuel risky investments leading to asset bubbles … Japan’s abnormally low rates encourage unsafe investment … The credit crunch that triggered a global sell-off of stocks this month also drove the yen to its highest level in more than a year as the market turmoil prompted investors to sell risky investments funded by so-called carry trades — investments funded by low-interest loans in Japan.”
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August 18, 2007
Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — August 17, 2007



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Stock Du Jour (VXO.X) & Random ObservationsBuying from the get-go, good, strong, solid day (which you would expect given the Fed’s actions). I know the look of a lot of intraday charts (SPY, IWM, XLF, CFC, TMA) is less than compelling (a fancy way to say gap and crap), but the tone was very good all day, I can assure you.
Notable New Lows: Restoration Hardware (RSTO), Sharper Image (SHRP), and Home Solutions of America (HSOA).
Notable New Highs: Wells Fargo (WFC), Washington Federal (WFSL), and Radiant Systems (RADS).
I’ll feature a weekly chart of the Volatility Index (VXO.X) … it spiked as high as 37.69 this week, which is a level that hasn’t been seen for many years. (You have to be a buyer when you see this level of fear in the market.)
Random aside: I bumped into Jim Rogers in the gym yesterday. We talked about his move to Singapore, and later he introduced me to Hilton Augusta (his four-year old daughter) who spoke with me exclusively in Chinese.

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 17:33 | 显示全部楼层
August 17, 2007
Stock Du Jour (FXY Again) & Random ObservationsHeavy selling from the get-go; I know things reversed in the afternoon but I only see some true buying in the last 30 minutes — some kind of rescue operation or an elaborate set-up to sucker people? Countrywide put in a hammer on over 200,000,000 shares traded (on ~150,000 trades). SPY clocks a 546,743,610 share day (~175,000 trades).
Comic relief from The Onion: How Are We Paying Off Our Subprime Mortgages?
Notable New Highs: None.
Notable New Lows: Restoration Hardware (RSTO), Xinhua Finance (XFML), Adv. Medical Optics (EYE), Anglogold (AU) and Gold Fields (GFI) — what’s the deal with these gold companies? Last but not least, Akamai (AKAM).
Back in the middle of June I wrote “the carry trade obviously ain’t unwinding any time soon,” picking the exact bottom in the Yen. Obviously. ;-)

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The Downside of Spam Filtering CommentsMany people have written to tell me the site is acting screwy and you’re getting a “Precondition Failed” error when trying to post a comment. I think it’s because the spam filter is crushing any comment with “mortgage” in it or something like that. Sorry about that, and I don’t know how to fix it, so we’re just going to have to grin and bear it for now.
(I can’t even post comments to my own posts … does anyone know how to override Spam Karma 2 on selected posts?)
My apologies.

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August 16, 2007
2/28 Loans as “Stupidity” MortgagesOne Family’s Journey Into a Subprime Trap is an A1 story in today’s WSJ. Here’s the key paragraph for me:
Mrs. Montes says she was apprehensive about the [mortgage] broker’s assurances [that they’d be able to re-finance the original loan ‘in a couple of years’]. “But I blame that on that I don’t understand the lingo they were talking,” she says. “It’s a scary experience…. All I could see was all these numbers flash before me…. I said, ‘Mario, I hope you don’t get into something that is going to hurt us.’”
C’mon, if you’re borrowing over half a million dollars and you don’t know what you’re doing, you damn well better be accompanied by a disinterested party who does know “the lingo” and can hold your hand. The problem is that these folks probably wanted that house so badly that they wouldn’t want to hear “forget about it, you can’t afford it” from anyone. Do they deserve our sympathy?
(This would be Uncle Morty’s reaction to their planned purchase: “What in hell are you schmucks thinkin’? And interest-only?!? Are you completely meshugge! Piggyback?!? I’ll show you a chazer! Did your brain fall out of your ear in the showa this morning? Just shoot me, just stab me now. Did you put your senses out with the gahbij today? Fuggedaboutit.”)
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Check, Please! (#6 in a Series)Hatsune is a California-style Japanese restaurant which is very popular here in Beijing. In the last two years I estimate I’ve eaten there around a hundred times (my office used to be within walking distance, but I’ve since moved). The food is good, the service is friendly, the price is right ($22.22 for dinner for 2 on this check).
I wouldn’t recommend it to out of towners since Beijing has many more interesting places to eat, but for us locals it’s always a rock-solid choice.

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Monthly Sub-prime Mortgage Reset ScheduleCredit Suisse’s Investment Strategy team put out a piece yesterday called LTCM Redux? that included this tidbit and lovely graph, none of which is news to the market:
“… the financial squeeze on the US sub-prime borrower is set to intensify. A total of US$240 billion worth of sub-prime mortgages (equivalent to 39% of outstanding adjustable-rate sub-prime mortgages) are scheduled to reset over the next 12-months and US$370 billion (60%) over the next 18-months (Figure 12). Additionally, loan-to-value ratios should continue to deteriorate unless we see a significant rebound in house price inflation (which looks unlikely). Hence, sub-prime mortgage default trends are set to intensify moving forward.”

Warren Buffett back in May 2006:
“Dumb lending always has its consequences. It’s like a disease that doesn’t manifest itself for a few weeks, like an epidemic that doesn’t show up until it’s too late to stop it. Any developer will build anything he can borrow against. If you look at the 10Ks that are getting filed [by banks] and compare them just against last year’s 10Ks, and look at their balances of ‘interest accrued but not paid,’ you’ll see some very interesting statistics.”
Related: 80% of sub-prime ARM loans are 2/28s
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Stock Du Jour (CFC Intraday) & Random ObservationsFlat choppy day until 2 PM when sellers showed up and hit the market hard — every day it’s the same thing it seems.
Notable New Highs: VMWare (VMW) and UltraShort Real Estate (SRS).
Notable New Lows: Heely’s (HLYS), LaZBoy (LZB), Fremont (FMT), Northwest Airlines (NWA), St. Joe (JOE), KKR Financial (KFN), US Airways (LCC), E*Trade (ETFC), and most important of all: Countrywide (CFC).
I’ll feature the intraday chart of Countrywide (CFC). It did nearly 125,000 trades today, and set up beautifully for Dummies who were watching it.
UPDATE: Most read story on the Bloomberg: Countrywide Falls; Merrill Cites Bankruptcy Prospect

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August 15, 2007
Stock Du Jour (MCO) & Random ObservationsSelling from the get-go, accelerated in the afternoon again as it’s wont to do of late.
Notable New Lows: Jamba (JMBA), NetEase (NTES), UBS (UBS), KKR Financial (KFN), PMI (PMI), Moody’s (MCO), and Thornburg Mortgage (TMA).
Notable New Highs: Absolutely NONE.
I’ll feature a monthly chart of Moody’s (MCO) … where are the ratings agencies in this mess? Do they have any legal liability? Are the sharkskin shoe lawyers circling?
UPDATE: In Wednesday’s WSJ is this page A1 article: How Rating Firms’ Calls Fueled Subprime Mess … a key line that makes one shake his head in disgust:
“In the second half of 2006, Mr. Kornfeld at Moody’s noticed a troubling trend. In an unusually large number of subprime loans, borrowers weren’t making even their first payments.”

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August 14, 2007
Values Just Get Way Out of WhackGood bit (something I agree with) from the Goldman Sachs call:
“… we look around the markets today, and while there is a lot of volatility and a lot of difficult markets, we also think that there are a fair number of assets that are selling at distressed prices that are not distressed assets … And when we see those assets in any type of asset classes, we will try and take advantage of it.” — David Viniar, CFO
Correct (fingers crossed, lol).
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Dollar DumpHere’s the announcement from the People’s Bank of China quashing those foolish rumors about China’s plans to dump the dollar. They use the term “抛售”which means “to dump” [not simply “to sell”] … “我国” literally means “my country,” a term filled with nationalistic feeling, but should be translated as “China.” “和谐” is popular at the moment and means “harmony” or “harmonious.” Another key term to understand here is “正常渠道” which means “normal channels,” as opposed to, say, manipulating the currency markets by talking smack.
Here’s my quick translation of the key bits (please feel free to correct me if you know better):
美元在国际货币体系中占有重要的地位，美国金融市场容量大、流动性高，包括美国政府债券在内的美元资产，是我国外汇储备投资的重要组成部分。
The US dollar holds an important place in the global currency markets. The American financial markets are large and highly liquid, including the US treasury bond market. [These bonds] are an important investment holding which make up part of China’s foreign currency reserves.
中国是国际金融市场上负责任的投资者，我国外汇储备管理以安全、流动、收益为主要经营目标，始终坚持以长期的、战略的眼光，并主要考虑我国对外经济发展、国际货币体系的演进、国际资本及外汇市场的变动趋势等多种因素，确定货币资产结构。
China is a responsible investor in the global financial markets. The main objectives while managing China’s foreign currency reserves are safety, liquidity, and profitability, always keeping the perspective of long term, strategic investment, while also considering China’s economic development, the evolution of the global currency system, changes in the international capital and foreign exchange markets, and various other factors, to determine the structure of our currency assets.
中美两国之间有着密切的经贸关系，这不仅对两国经济的稳定发展，也对世界经济的稳定发展有着重要作用。我们一贯重视并积极促进中美经贸往来的和谐发展，重视通过正常渠道加强沟通和交流，包括通过中美战略经济对话等方式，增进理解，形成共识，加强合作，以促进中美两国的经济繁荣与发展，使两国人民从中受益。
China and the United States have a close economic and trade relationship, which is not only important to the economic development of both countries, but also plays an important role in the stable development of the global economy. We continuously pay attention to and seek to improve the harmonious development of Sino American trade relations, and attach importance to using normal channels to strengthen communication and dialogue, including using strategic economic talks and other means to strengthen understanding and form a consensus to advance a flourishing and developed economy in both countries, from which both the people of China and America can benefit.
Hang on, darn it, the PBOC has an official translation available here. (Well, it was good practice for me to give it a go on my own, and I think in some ways mine is better, er maybe not, their translation is pretty good.)
The U.S. dollar has an important status in the international monetary system. As the U.S. financial markets are very deep and highly liquid, dollar-denominated assets including U.S. government securities are an important component in China’s foreign exchange reserve investment portfolio.
In the international financial markets, China is a responsible investor. With an objective of making safe and liquid investment with reasonable returns, China’s foreign exchange reserve investment has always had a long-term and strategic vision, and taken into consideration development of China’s external sector, evolution of international monetary system, trend in international capital and foreign exchange markets, and etc, to determine the currency structure of such investment.
The close trade and economic ties between China and the U.S. are important to sound growth of the two economies and the world economy. China has always valued and endeavored to promote harmonious development of China-U.S. trade and economic relations, and valued better communications through various channels including the Strategic Economic Dialogue(SED), in order to increase understanding, forge consensus and enhance cooperation, with a view to promoting economic prosperity, development and people’s welfare in both countries.
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Stock Du Jour (GS) & Random ObservationsSlightly positive bias all day but closed poorly.
Notable New Lows: Restoration Hardware (RSTO), Ethan Allen (ETH), Steak n Shake (SNS), Beacon Roofing Supply (BECN), and Thornburg Mortgage.
Notable New Highs: Nothing of interest.
I’ll feature a weekly chart of Goldman Sachs (GS) which hit an all-time high in early June and has fallen about 25% since then. You can see that trend followers exited the stock in early August after catching a huge run.

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 17:34 | 显示全部楼层
Stock Du Jour (BBW) & Random ObservationsNegative day, nothing to cheer about, day traders focused on the short side once again. Note that the Fed’s euphemism for armageddon is “dislocations.” (Recall that Countrywide came up with “disruptions.”)
Notable New Lows: Build-a-Bear (BBW), Marchex (MCHX), InfoSpace (INSP), Genentech (DNA), and Thornburg Mortgage (TMA).
Notable New Highs: None … there was a new issue called Melita (MELI) which had a good day, but other than that nothing catches my eye.
I thought I should feature a weekly chart of Build-a-Bear Workshop (BBW) since it seems appropriately named of late.

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August 10, 2007
Disruption is a Euphemism for ArmageddonThe most read story on the Bloomberg this afternoon (Beijing time) is: Bernanke, Paulson Were Wrong: Subprime Contagion Is Spreading. Here are 28 key words from it:
“… firms borrowed money from banks to buy loans to create securities. When investors stopped buying the securities, the banks that made the original loan demanded their money back.”
But isn’t the whole mess simply a crisis of confidence? There’s no way that most of these mortgage-backed securities, even sub-prime ones, are worthless … it’s just that no one is willing to make a bid for them. When you mark to market and there’s no market, then you’ve got a problem, I guess.
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Stock Du Jour (WTR) & Random ObservationsKind of a negative neutral morning but then the selling got underway in earnest before lunch. Still a panicky, jittery market. I’ve been updating the CMBS BBB- post … the spread as of last Friday was 403 bps which is approaching Russian debt default / LTCM crisis levels. No wonder you have grown men going bananas on live TV. My two cents? In crisis, opportunity. If you have cash sitting around, look to put it to work.
Notable New Lows: American Eagle (AEO), Dillards (DDS), Limelight Networks (LLNW) and Mylan Labs (MYL).
Notable New Highs: Aqua America (WTR), Altera (ALTR), and Life Time Fitness (LTM).
I’ll feature a weekly chart Aqua America (WTR), which has moved to a new yearly high … you can see it still has quite a bit of supply, or “resistance,” above.

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August 9, 2007
Three Good Marriage JokesTwo Hennys and a Rodney:
“Some people ask the secret of our long marriage. We take time to go to a restaurant two times a week. A little candlelight, dinner, soft music and dancing. She goes Tuesdays, I go Fridays.” — Henny Youngman
“My wife and I were happy for twenty years. Then we met.” — Rodney Dangerfield
“You know what I did before I married? Anything I wanted to.” — Henny Youngman
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Stock Du Jour (LTM) & Random ObservationsNice, strong day … continuously positive tone, a little hiccup in the afternoon but a very solid close.
Notable New Lows: Heely’s (HLYS) — yowza, almost cut in half, what’s the story here? Electronic Data Systems (EDS), Charming Shoppes (CHRM), Conseco (CNO), Gap (GPS); and Forest Labs (FRX) and Mylan Labs (MYL) — these last two look like deep value plays to me, but only when I put on my CPA hat.
Notable New Highs: Amusing juxtaposition: Tim Hortons (THI) and Weight Watchers (WTW); SunPower (SPWR), Fastenal (FAST), Priceline.com (PCLN), Coca-Cola (KO), Cypress Semi (CY), Juniper (JNPR), and Cisco (CSCO).
I’ll feature of monthly chart of Life Time Fitness (LTM), which is at an all-time high.

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August 8, 2007
US Trade-Weighted Dollar Index at All-Time LowsMost of us look at the Dollar Index (DXY) closely, but it’s also important to keep an eye on the Trade-Weighted Dollar Index (USTW$).
I present two more exhibits which give further support to the long-term USD short position:
My poor country is going to the dogs, being destroyed from within, and the only thing we can do is protect ourselves by diversifying out of the USD. (I also encourage all my US-based readers to buy a home abroad.)

Currency Weights: Broad Index of the Foreign Exchange Value of the Dollar

Can anyone confirm that the seven countries that make up the “Major Currency” index are: Euro area, Canada, China, Mexico, Japan, United Kingdom, and Korea?
UPDATE: Thanks to commenter “jp,” we now know that the “Major Currency” countries are: Euro area, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia and Sweden. In light of this, I think the best trade-weighted dollar index to watch is the “Broad” one: USTWBROA (which is only updated monthly, unfortunately).

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 17:35 | 显示全部楼层
August 8, 2007
Stock Du Jour (WYNN) & Random ObservationsNegative bias until the Fed announcement which led to a crazy spike up, then a sell-off in the last 15 minutes. Terrible day to trade no doubt (like most Fed days).
Notable New Lows: Parlux Fragrances (PARL), Journal Register (JRC), Jones Apparel (JNY), Warner Music (WMG), 3Com (COMS), UTStarcom (UTSI), Mylan Labs (MYL), Forest Labs (FRX), Sanmina (SANM), and Tenet Healthcare (THC).
Notable New Highs: Deckers (DECK), Chipotle’s (CMG), Blue Nile (NILE), Expeditors Int’l (EXPD), CostCo (COST), Wynn (WYNN), and eBay (EBAY).
I’ll feature a monthly chart of Wynn Resorts (WYNN) as it moves to an all-time high … up more than 10 times in a few short years.
It’s worth noting that the ISE Sentiment Index moved to its lowest (i.e. most bullish) level today in the last 52 weeks. As you all know, I’ve been a buyer recently.

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August 7, 2007
Like We Used to CouldFrom a letter written in 1959 by James Thurber:
“… we sink further and further into the new Oral Culture. The written word will soon disappear and we’ll no longer be able to read good prose like we used to could. This prospect does not gentle my thoughts or tranquil me toward the future.”
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Stock Du Jour (JNPR) & Random ObservationsAn extremely difficult, choppy day … buyers stepped in after 2 PM but before then it looks like anything but smooth sailing.
Notable New Lows: Martha Stewart (MSO), RealNetworks (RNWK), Sanmina (SANM), LSI (LSI) and Standard Pacific (SPF).
Notable New Highs: Wrigley (WWY), Kellogg (K), Raytheon (RTN), PayChex (PAYX), and Juniper (JNPR).
Here’s a monthly chart of Juniper (JNPR), which has been strong of late.

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August 6, 2007
Measured MediaGood bit (and clever swipe?) from Howard’s interview with Mark Pincus:
“Facebook was an obvious investment, I was just lucky to get in. My vote [on the billion dollar offer] would have been no. When you start doing well, offers come in. Why do you want to sell and sit by… so you get a payout, and then you sit by and watch some corporate weenies ruin this thing that you’ve created?”
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August 5, 2007
In the Fixed Income Markets We Have ArmageddonFinally got around to watching the Cramer video, and yes, it did make me chuckle. He’s a natural entertainer. I’ll transcribe a bit of it here:
“This is about Bernanke. This is about Bernanke. He has to be on that call. Forget the investors…. Bernanke needs to open the discount window. That’s how bad things are out there. Bernanke needs to focus on this. Alan Greenspan told everyone to take a teaser rate and then raised the rates seventeen times, and Bernanke is being an academic. It is no time to be an academic; it is time to get on the Bear Stearns call, listen, open the darn Fed window. He Has No Idea How Bad It Is Out There, HE HAS NO IDEA. HE HAS NO IDEA.
I HAVE TALKED TO THE HEADS OF ALMOST EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THESE FIRMS IN THE LAST 72 HOURS AND HE HAS NO IDEA WHAT IT’S LIKE OUT THERE. NONE! AND BILL POOLE HAS NO IDEA WHAT IT’S LIKE OUT THERE. MY PEOPLE HAVE BEEN IN THIS GAME FOR 25 YEARS AND THEY’RE LOSING THEIR JOBS AND THESE FIRMS ARE GOING TO GO OUT OF BUSINESS, AND HE’S NUTS, THEY’RE NUTS! THEY KNOW NOTHING!! … THE FED IS ASLEEP!!!
I’m not 52 like Cramer, but I’m old enough and know enough people to say: Just Go Buy Some Washington Mutual. ;-)
Barry posted a funny track, The Crystal Method - Right Here, Right Now (No Idea Mix), put together by someone named DJ FiniFinito. Hilarious.
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The Theology of Capitalism Is Sweeping the WorldParaphrased from this week’s interview in Barron’s with David Richards:
“Two major developments have occurred in the last 10 to 15 years, but really got going in the last five or six years: One, the whole world has adopted the notion that market- economy-oriented policies are correct. In other words, there is a theology of capitalism that is sweeping the world, to borrow a phrase from British historian Eric Hobsbawm. There are 3.5 billion people from Eastern Europe to the Pacific and from the Indian Ocean to the Arctic that were living under socialism or communism, where it was not possible to trade and not possible for entrepreneurs to get rich — and they have been transformed.
This has to be thought of in terms of the kind of 20-, 30-, 40-year growth we saw during the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century, when peasant societies would become industrial societies within 50 years. Urbanization is happening all over the world, and there is no way to stop it, unless people lose faith in this new theology of capitalism.
Two, there has been a total collapse in the cost of communication and computation. Time and distance in communication have been eliminated through the Internet and fiberoptics. Communication is instantaneous and virtually costless, and, as a result, you can run businesses all over the world from a headquarters positioned anywhere in the globe.
This, together with the first point, means the whole global economy has to be transformed. There are huge incentives to do it, but there is also a necessity to do it. This gives huge advantage to big international companies or even small ones that have an international point of view.”
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August 4, 2007
Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — August 3, 2007



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The Web As a PlatformLiked this bit from the long/short section of Wallstrip’s interview with the handsome and charming Toni Schneider (who has a great accent, where’s he from? Eastern Europe?).
“[Facebook is a short.] They’re going to do extremely well in the short term, but I think long term unless they become an open platform, it’s not going to work.”
Agreed. Jason Kottke got it right when he wrote that Facebook is the new AOL.
[Aside: it’s been awhile since I watched Wallstrip… how long have they been running the pre-roll, post-roll, and embedded ads?]
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Bilingual CountingToddler T loves to count. Here is a sample:
One, two, three, four, five, 六，七，八，九，十 !
It would be funnier if you could hear him, probably.
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Stock Du Jour (DXD) & Random ObservationsWhoa, selling from the get-go, went on all day, and really accelerated in the afternoon — not as bad as last Thursday (the 26th) but still looks pretty scary. The homebuilders definitely did not end the week on a positive note and there’s no hammer to get excited about. Looks like Sy Jacobs was right!
Notable New Lows: Bear Stearns (BSC), Lehman Brothers (LEH), Washington Mutual (WM), E*Trade (ETFC), Radian (RDN), and Network Appliance (NTAP). Obviously the list goes on and on but those are the ones that caught my eye.
Notable New Highs: Pharmion (PHRM), Garmin (GRMN), and Raytheon (RTN) — and not much else.
I’ll feature a weekly chart of the UltraShort Dow30 (DXD) … these UltraShort dogs are finally getting their day in the sun.

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 17:35 | 显示全部楼层
August 3, 2007
Check, Please! (#’s 4 and 5 in a Series)A couple more in the Check, Please! series.
Had drinks with a friend last night, first at Aria then at Lan.
Aria is in the China Grand Hotel and has the following six advantages:
  • “Classy” yet free bar food (before 7 PM)
  • They have Pimm’s (few places, even five-star hotel bars here, do)
  • They actually put some alcohol in the drinks (extremely unusual in Beijing)
  • All drinks are half price before 9 PM
  • The jazz band that starts playing at 7 PM ain’t bad
  • No dreaded service charge
Despite all these advantages it’s not a popular spot, which is fine with me — I try to make it there at least once a week. $14 is a steal because I ate about $10 worth of smoked salmon making the average cost of our three drinks around $1.33 a piece (quite near my favorite price).

Lan is a newish place in the LG Towers (across from Silk Street). It has a Sichuan restaurant and a bar and private rooms. The decorations are totally over-the-top, some kind of insane rococo / neo-classical mash-up — you’d have to see it to believe it. It looks like the kind of place that will go bust within 12 months, but I could be wrong about that (I say the same thing about most places that target the nouveaux riche here).
They had a decent jazz band and singer who started at 9 PM. My drinks were weak (what else is new), that Chardonnay sells for under $10 a bottle (not a glass, lol), and there was the awful service charge attached (but the waitresses looked really hot — or was the lighting poor?). No good nooks and crannies to hide in. $28 for three drinks is a rip; the only way to justify that price is if you went in stoned to marvel at the surroundings (which I’m far too old and responsible to do now (drat)).

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Stock Du Jour (XHB) & Random ObservationsDecent, positive bias all day … nothing spectacular but a change from the plunges and see-saws of late.
Notable New Lows: Getty Images (GYI), Rent-a-Center (RCII), and Bare Escentuals (BARE) — deserves to be on the new lows list for “escentuals” alone.
Notable New Highs: Pharmion (PHRM), Nokia (NOK), and Juniper (JNPR).
I’ll feature a weekly chart of the Homebuilders ETF (XHB) … you can see the flush down below $25 … if it closes strong tomorrow (Friday) then it will form a pretty “hammer” as commenter Born2Code points out. Buy above the hammer’s high and set your stop below its low (and cross your fingers — you’ll lose 12% if wrong).

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Cat:   | Time: 8:48 am (utc+8) Comments (7)

August 2, 2007
Attacking in Another DirectionGeneral Douglas MacArthur, in 1957:
“The powers in charge keep us in a perpetual state of fear… keep us in a continuous stampede of patriotic fervor with the cry of grave national emergency. Always there has been some terrible evil at home or some monstrous foreign power to gobble us up if we did not blindly rally behind it by furnishing the exorbitant sums demanded. Yet, in retrospect, these disasters seem never to have happened, seem never to have been quite real.”
Not sure if that’s an accurate quote… would be nice to see the original source.
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Cat:   | Time: 12:11 pm (utc+8) Comments (23)


Ultimately Less LibidinousThe Porn Myth, by Naomi Wolf
This is the best bit from an otherwise silly and regressive article… the “money shot” of sorts:
“Does all this sexual imagery in the air mean that sex has been liberated—or is it the case that the relationship between the multi-billion-dollar porn industry, compulsiveness, and sexual appetite has become like the relationship between agribusiness, processed foods, supersize portions, and obesity? If your appetite is stimulated and fed by poor-quality material, it takes more junk to fill you up. People are not closer because of porn but further apart; people are not more turned on in their daily lives but less so.”
C’mon, Naomi “Pining for Orthodoxy” Wolf, there’s no erotic intensity when you screw through a hole in the sheet.
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Cat:   | Time: 11:19 am (utc+8) Comments (5)


Stock Du Jour (LEN) & Random ObservationsSeesaw day with a negative bias and an absolutely insane last 30 minutes in the other direction. Nightmare for day traders?
Notable New Lows: Anything mortgage- or housing-related: Beazer (BZH), MGIC (MTG), E*Trade (ETFC) … LSI (LSI), Dillard’s (DDS), and Vonage (VG) — I know I’ve seen Happy Meals for $1.99.
Notable New Highs: Chipotle Mexican Grille (CMG), Garmin (GRMN), Applied Materials (AMAT), Navteq (NVT), and Dreamworks (DWA).
I’ll feature a monthly chart of Lennar (LEN) in which you can see a “classic” head and shoulders top. I don’t see it completing the measured move to $15, but maybe I’m just not bearish enough on these homebuilders.

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Cat:   | Time: 8:31 am (utc+8) Comments (5)

August 1, 2007
Tip the Chairman and Discover His 10 Favorite Financial StocksI had a chance to put together a list of my ten favorite financial sector stocks right here. Once again the market is overly pessimistic about things and that’s forced a number of stocks to levels where they’re deeply undervalued, in some cases stupidly undervalued. If you want me to email you the list (a Word document that has a chart and some basic information), just make a donation.
Time for some high pressure contribution tactics:
  • My 15 Ideas Portfolio is losing money and has hugely underperformed the S&P 500 (to date).
  • If you think the housing crash has just begun, you wouldn’t want to touch any of these stocks.
  • If you wear CROX, are addicted to RIMM’s BlackBerry, and think GOOGle is the shiznit, none of these stocks will interest you.
Thanks for toking the dealer during these dark days, guys.
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Cat:   | Time: 8:40 am (utc+8) Comments (20)


Stock Du Jour (AHM) & Random ObservationsNowhere morning then selling hit in the afternoon.
Notable New Lows: MGIC (MTG), Health Management (HMA) — ticker symbol confusion with AHM? (ha!), LSI (LSI), Akamai (AKAM), and Circuit City (CC).
Notable New Highs: Extremely short list, Under Armour (UA), Heidrick & Struggles (HSII), Shutterfly (SFLY), and Morgan Stanley’s China fund (CAF).
American Home Mortgage (AHM) collapsed rather spectacularly … now is a great time to look for deeply undervalued assets (I’ve already found ten of them). Here are the daily and 15-minute charts for AHM.


This is from about a dozen days ago, (emphasis is mine):
July 20, 2007 9:31 AM ET
Briefing.com - Market Report — Short Stories
American Home Mortgage RBC Capital Mkts reiterates Outperform. Target $25 to $20. RBC notes AHM is down 41% since the end of June due to increasing credit quality concerns, concerns over a possible dividend cut, and eroding market sentiment for mortgage REITs. Firm does expect credit costs to continue to rise, but do not expect increases to threaten the viability of the company, or its access to an ample variety of sources of Wall Street borrowings. Despite expected losses from mortgage banking operations, firm thinks earnings from the REIT will be sufficient to cover a quarterly dividend of $0.60 per share. Firm lowers 2007E/2008E EPS to $1.02/$2.82 from $2.10/$4.00 and their tgt to $20 from $25.
That “ample variety of sources” turns out to be neither ample nor various.
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Cat:   | Time: 8:02 am (utc+8) Comments (4)

July 31, 2007
Stock Du Jour (LFC) & Random ObservationsKind of a flat morning then buying picked up in the afternoon… a decent day.
Notable New Lows: Vonage (VG) — is a Happy Meal about $2.40?; Gannett (GCI) — read that they recently boosted their dividend which horrified me; and Redwood Trust (RWT) — wonder if Wally Weitz still loves this one.
Notable New Highs: China Life (LFC), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), and First Solar (FSLR).
I’ll feature a monthly chart of China Life Insurance (LFC) which has gone up a little bit these last couple years.

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Cat:   | Time: 8:38 am (utc+8) Comments (8)

July 30, 2007
Most Desired EmployersCame across a couple of interesting lists in an article in the latest issue of Bloomberg magazine:
Employer Preferences, All Undergraduates
  • Google
  • Walt Disney
  • Apple
  • US Department of State
  • Peace Corps
  • Central Intelligence Agency
  • PriceWaterhouseCoopers
  • Microsoft
  • Federal Bureau of Investigation
  • Teach for America
Employer Preferences, All MBAs
  • Google
  • McKinsey
  • Goldman Sachs
  • Bain & Co.
  • Boston Consulting
  • Apple
  • Microsoft
  • General Electric
  • Nike
  • Bank of America
Source: Universum
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Cat:   | Time: 10:42 am (utc+8) Comments (4)

July 29, 2007
Favorite Lines from The High WindowHere are selected bits that I liked from Raymond Chandler’s The High Window:
“His smile was as faint as a fat lady at a fireman’s ball.”
“… as thin as an honest alibi.”
“From thirty feet away she looked like a lot of class. From ten feet away she looked like something made up to be seen from thirty feet away.”
“I’d plug you as soon as I’d strike a match.”
“He looked as if he had been sitting there since the Civil War and had come out of that badly.”
“I stroked the bill with my fingertips, as if it was a kitten.”
“… a sound came out of him like a convalescent rooster learning to crow again after a long illness.”
“… old men with faces like lost battles.”
“… a voice that even whiskey had failed to improve.”
“We looked at each other with the clear innocent eyes of a couple of used-car salesman.”
“That would bother me like two per cent of nothing at all.”
“… as loud as a ton of coal going down a chute.”
“His face was as empty as my brain.”
“Breeze looked at me steadily. Then he sighed. Then he picked the glass up and tasted it and sighed again and shook his head sideways with a half smile; the way a man does when you give him a drink and he needs it very badly and it is just right and the first swallow is like a peek into a cleaner, sunnier, brighter world.”
“The limousine went past me making a noise like dead leaves falling.”
“… a plot with all the originality and drive of a split fingernail.”
“She had eyes like strange sins.”
“His voice cut through the muted rhumba music like a shovel through snow.”
“In my business tough boys come a dime a dozen. And would-be tough boys come a nickel a gross.”
“Class is a thing that has a way of dissolving rapidly in alcohol.”
“His face was like a vacant lot.”
“I could use a five-dollar bill so rough Abe Lincoln’s whiskers would be all lathered up with sweat.”
“You wouldn’t notice the colour of a hummingbird’s eye at fifty feet.”
“Except for her face she would have looked all right.”
“… as flat as a flounder.”
“I don’t give one little flash in hell about you any more.”
“… a hand as steady as a stone pier in a light breeze.”
“She’d have made a perfect nun. The religious dream, with its narrowness, its stylized emotions and its grim purity, would have been a perfect release for her.”
“It would take the Yankee outfield with two bats each to give her what she has coming from you.”
“… the quietly strained voice of a stage manager at a bad rehearsal.”
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Cat:   | Time: 4:31 pm (utc+8) Comments (1)

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