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发表于 2009-3-21 16:26
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August 11, 2008
You Adapt, Evolve, Compete or DieFortunately someone copied and pasted onto a message board this 3,000+ word profile of Paul Tudor Jones written back in May 2004 (it’s long gone from Bloomberg.com):
“Jones said he didn’t always expect to be a trader. After he graduated from high school in Memphis in 1972, he went to the University of Virginia, where his father had earned a law degree. He said he considered being a journalist.
His father ran a financial and legal trade newspaper, and Paul, who was editor of his high school paper, used to write articles under the byline Eagle Jones. He said he was drawn to managing hedge funds because he’s always loved games and odds.
In college, he says, he routinely played poker. These days, he’s more likely to play Monopoly with his four kids, he said.
When he read an article during college about Richard Dennis — who started with $400 and became a millionaire by making bets at the Chicago Board of Trade on moves of commodities such as soybeans, corn and sugar — he said his future was fixed.
‘That’s my dream job,’ Jones said he thought at the time. ‘He was standing in an arena physically and mentally competing with hundreds of other bright and talented people in an ultimate test of wits.’”
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Cat: | Time: 4:00 pm (utc+8) Comments (6)
August 9, 2008
Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — August 8, 2008
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Cat: | Time: 8:52 am (utc+8) Comments (7)
August 8, 2008
What Goes 上 Must Come 下In the last year, so many Chinese friends told me, “Chairman, the market can’t go down before the Olympics, the government won’t allow it.” I thought that was a nutty idea. Anyway, here’s a weekly chart of the CSI300 showing the amazing 630% rise beginning in 2005 (enjoyed by very few) and terrible 55% fall since last October (suffered by almost everyone, including my manicurist).
For Fibonacci fans, price is currently bumping around the golden retracement level (61.8%). If it falls through there, I don’t know what’s going to happen. Let’s just say that I’ve mapped the fastest routes to the airport and have my credit card and passport handy at all times.
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Cat: | Time: 3:09 pm (utc+8) Comments (10)
AIG Shareholders in AIGonyAIG Plummets as Insurer Won’t Rule Out Capital Raise
“AIG slid as much as 17 percent in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, its biggest one-day drop since at least November 1982. The stock declined $4.44 to $24.65 at 10:09 a.m., leaving the shares down 57 percent this year. AIG’s quarterly loss was driven by $5.56 billion in pretax losses tied to credit-default swaps.
Credit-default swap contracts, which are guarantees AIG sold to protect fixed-income investors, drove the company to record losses in the two previous periods, accounting for about $25 billion in writedowns over nine months.”
Argh. AIG was another “deeply undervalued” stock I bought based on its sterling history of dividend growth — a long stretch of glory which is destroyed now. The chart didn’t look awful until $50 failed … once it did, I should have bailed (but didn’t since I had my long-term investor hat on, which I now refer to as my dunce’s cap).
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Cat: | Time: 2:58 pm (utc+8) Comments (4)
August 7, 2008
Latest Addition — Chinese Zodiac — DogI think Zippo made this line of twelve lighters, each depicting one of the twelve animals in the Chinese zodiac (rat, ox, tiger, rabbit, dragon, snake, horse, sheep, monkey, rooster, dog, and pig), specifically for the Chinese market because I can’t find any information about them online. The manufacture date stamped on the bottom of the case is August 2007 (H 07).
I was born in the year of the dog and also thought that this was one of the best designs among the twelve (I also like the rooster a lot). If you know Chinese, you can see the character for dog, 狗, and not just a reclining black labrador. My collection of Zippos is growing and I must join the Zippo Nutter Club soon.
The characteristics of dogs are: Honest, intelligent, straightforward, loyal, sense of justice and fair play, attractive, amiable, unpretentious, sociable, open-minded, idealistic, moralistic, practical, affectionate, dogged. Can be cynical, lazy, cold, judgmental, pessimistic, worrier, stubborn, quarrelsome.
I am all those good things except attractive and sociable (and, according to the wife, practical) in addition to being lazy, cold (except when amiable and affectionate), and very stubborn.
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Cat: | Time: 1:00 pm (utc+8) Comments (23)
August 6, 2008
Of Significant Concern to the CommitteeFed Keeps Rate at 2% as Economic Growth Stagnates
“The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate at 2 percent … Fed policy makers have cut the benchmark rate by 3.25 percentage points since the global credit market began unraveling a year ago.”
The market was strong going into the Fed announcement and did its usual ziggy thing (highly technical term) before continuing higher into the close. Three out of four of the Box’s open short positions were stopped out. I’ve learned to hate swing trading (and fall back in love with day trading) by watching the Box ideas these many months.
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Cat: | Time: 1:37 pm (utc+8) Comments (11)
August 5, 2008
Whipping Into Line All Wandering Fancies, Stray Ideas, and Tangential ThoughtsHow to Concentrate (from 1930)
By concentrating, I’ve distilled this 2,000+ word article into these four points (89 words):
- Learn to let go — to relax completely — before each period of in-tense concentration.
- When harassed by the three devils, hurry, worry, and fear, the mind never has a fair chance to center on anything.
- Seek a quiet place free from all distractions, a place free from all interruptions which may break your train of thought, a place where you can be alone, free from all outside influences, and a place of pleasing environment, beautiful or otherwise, where the atmosphere is right for you.
- Have a written daily schedule.
Does the gallery have any other tips on how to “bring all your mental force and faculties to bear steadily on a given center with-out deviation from that exact point” ?
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Cat: | Time: 4:38 pm (utc+8) Comments (5)
Commodities Bulls CRYingCRB Commodity Index Caps Biggest One-Day Decline Since March
“The CRB Index (CRY) slid 10 percent in July [after] posting its best first half in 35 years, gaining 29 percent in the first six months of 2008 as investors stocked up on raw materials as an alternative to stocks and bonds and as a hedge against the weakening dollar.”
Is there a major trend change underway here or is this just a “correction” in an on-going bull market? From a trend trader’s perspective, until the weekly flips down you have to play the long side and all short plays must be considered “counter-trend” — best handled by the deft and the daft.
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Cat: | Time: 2:30 pm (utc+8) Comments (9)
August 3, 2008
Privatizing Profits, Socializing LossesInterview with Nouriel Roubini:
“[The government is now] bailing out troubled participants and intervening in every market. The Securities and Exchange Commission has accused others of trying to manipulate stocks, but the government itself is now the manipulator. The regulators should investigate themselves for bailing out Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), the creditors of Bear Stearns and the financial system with new lending facilities. They have swapped U.S. Treasury bonds for toxic securities….
[T]here are ways to manage [the failure of] Bear or Fannie and Freddie in a fairer way. If public money is to be put at stake, first all the shareholders of these companies have to be wiped out. Management has to be wiped out, and the creditors of Bear should have taken a hit. Why did the Fed buy $29 billion of the most toxic securities, and essentially bail out JPMorgan Chase (JPM), which bought Bear Stearns?
The government bailed out everyone. Even the unsecured creditors of Fannie and Freddie should have taken a hit. Sometimes it is necessary to use public money to rescue institutions, but you do it in a way in which you’re not bailing out those who made the mistakes. In each one of these episodes the government bailed out the shareholders, the bondholders and to some degree, management.”
Will Roubini overstay his “being right” about the financial sector? I looked through the charts of hundreds of financial stocks this weekend and thought to myself, maybe the worst is past. He says it’s “the second inning of a severe, protracted recession,” which may be true, but has the market already discounted that? Maybe.
Look at Wells Fargo’s (WFC) chart: it’s trading less than 10% below its August 2007 lows… Old National Bank is another one… I could make a long list.
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Cat: | Time: 8:55 pm (utc+8) Comments (10)
August 2, 2008
Where’s Robert Prechter When You Need Him?Back on December 24, 2002 there was a big feature article on Prechter which was widely read on the Bloomberg: Market Seer Prechter Called 1987 Crash, Says Dow to Fall to 800 (sorry, no link):
“Forget about the Dow Jones Industrial Average returning to 11,000. Try Depression- era levels below 1,000. And don’t flock to bonds for safety: Municipalities will default and corporate bonds will be wracked by downgrades. Even the U.S. government’s credit status may sink low enough to make Treasury bills shaky.
If you believe in such gloomy prophecies, you probably know about Robert Prechter Jr. [who] is now undergoing a renaissance. His book ‘Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression’, which warns of a looming economic cataclysm, reached the top of Amazon.com’s financial bestseller list in 2002. His two main monthly newsletters have increased their subscriber base by more than 50 percent.”
In order to end the current bear market, it’s very important that Prechter makes an appearance calling for Dow 800. Can you work your magic again, Bobby?
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Cat: | Time: 7:22 pm (utc+8) Comments (8)
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-3-21 16:31 编辑 ] |
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