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发表于 2009-3-21 16:00
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January 22, 2009
Failure’s Really No Success At AllBarclays Falls Seventh Day on Nationalization Concern
“‘There’s some disquiet as to the fact that their writedown procedure is not the same as other banks that you would have thought are exposed to the same risks,’ said Dave Bradbury, who helps manage $6 billion at Canada Life Ltd. in London.”
Some disquiet … I chuckled. Barclays has dropped as much as 75% over the last eight sessions. Candlechart fans will recognize that the last candlestick is a hammer (or what one of my old bar chart buddies calls a “spring bar”), which may mark some kind of low. Who knows? Has John Paulson covered his shorts yet?
(Bonus points to those who recognized the post title is taken from Dylan’s great song, Love Minus Zero)
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Cat: | Time: 9:56 am (utc+8) Comments (11)
January 21, 2009
Custody Bank Management Should Be Taken Into CustodyState Street Plunges as Bond Losses Threaten Capital
“Logue said in the statement today there had been no defaults among the securities in the company’s $78.8 billion bond holdings or the $23.9 billion in conduits.”
Right, no defaults, just massive unrealized losses.
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Cat: | Time: 11:26 am (utc+8) Comments (2)
January 20, 2009
Banking Creeps Deserve NationalizationRBS Will Be First Guinea Pig for ‘Creeping Nationalization’
“In exchange for government guarantees on losses from toxic debt, the bank will have to sign a binding agreement with the Treasury on how much it will lend and on what terms. Auditors will move in to check the bank is following the government directive.
‘We’ll be one of the first guinea pigs,’ RBS Chief Executive Officer Stephen Hester told reporters on a conference call yesterday.”
Bankers who lose 28 billion pounds in a year should be caged and fed only pellets for the rest of their natural lives, don’t you agree? Add that term to the binding agreement.
Related: Paulson Actively Shorting Shite
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Cat: | Time: 10:09 am (utc+8) Comments (8)
January 19, 2009
Feedburner’s Link Splicer for Delicious is DeadOnce upon a time Feedburner had a really nice feature called “Link Splicer” which easily added your delicious links to your RSS feed. In the middle of December it mysteriously stopped working, and is still broken over a month later. What’s worse is that when I try to activate the Link Splicer now, it says it doesn’t recognize my delicious username (see screenshot below).
Is anyone else having this problem? And does anyone know how this can be fixed? Thanks.
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Cat: | Time: 9:43 am (utc+8) Comments (16)
January 17, 2009
Get Gloomier: Trannies Break DownThe transport ETF I follow (IYT) broke to a new multi-year relative low this past week. If you’re a Dow Theorist, this ugliness bodes very ill for the broad market. It was painful to go over the ETF signals since so many recent buys (which made me hopeful) reversed back to sells.
If you want to review a lot of nasty whipsaw losses and see what changes happened last week, just email me to join the ETF newsletter mailing llist.
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Cat: | Time: 10:26 am (utc+8) Comments (6)
January 16, 2009
TGIF (XXXIII)
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Cat: | Time: 9:07 pm (utc+8) Comments (9)
January 15, 2009
Book Report — Week Ending January 16, 2009New feature here at maoxian.com … I’ll report on the books I’ve just finished reading. I read about one book a week so it’ll probably be a once-a-week post.
Charles Willeford is one of my favorite writers. He wrote under the pseudonym, W. Franklin Sanders… I don’t know how many books. I’m not sure when Whip Hand was written, probably the early 1950s? [Wrong, it was 1961, see link below.] I bought a reprinted version from Blackmask (an imprint of Disruptive Publishing). It’s very cheaply done, with multiple typos and crummy formatting, and I think I paid $12 (!) for it, but I’m a sucker for Willeford.
The print is too small to read in that scan, but the original cover of the Gold Medal Book read “Lash by bloody lash, the she-devil from Dallas would get her revenge” :)
Related: One of the Great Ones, by Jesse Sublett
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Cat: | Time: 10:32 am (utc+8) Comments (14)
January 14, 2009
Reviewing XLF Buy and Sell SignalsAs Citigroup (C) goes goodnight (so much for never sleeping!), I thought it would be useful to post my system’s moves in the Financial SPDR (XLF) over the last couple years. The sale back in June 2007 was a good one, but there were two unfortunate whipsaw losses on the long side in 2008. The last sale was above $18 and it hasn’t reversed back up yet. No trend following system is perfect, but I’m pretty happy with what I’ve come up with here.
I’m finally getting my act together and have figured out both the core portfolio (around 65 ETFs) and the pricing for the newsletter, but until I officially announce the plan, the ETF newsletter will be free, so email me today if you’d like to join the mailing list.
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Cat: | Time: 10:02 am (utc+8) Comments (11)
January 11, 2009
List of Liquid Leveraged ETFsHere are all the 2x and 3x leveraged ETFs that have a three month average daily volume of at least 500,000 shares:
Ticker ~ Last Trade ~ Fund Name ~ Daily Volume (3 month average)
BGU ~ 35.37 ~ Direxion Large Cap Bull 3X Shares ~ 6,694,620
BGZ ~ 58.93 ~ Direxion Large Cap Bear 3X Shares ~ 3,419,500
SSO ~ 25.67 ~ Ultra S&P500 ProShares ~ 87,799,900
SDS ~ 71.95 ~ UltraShort S&P500 ProShares ~ 56,465,900
DDM ~ 30.74 ~ Ultra Dow30 ProShares ~ 19,627,800
DXD ~ 55.00 ~ UltraShort Dow30 ProShares ~ 14,296,500
MVV ~ 24.45 ~ Ultra MidCap400 ProShares ~ 1,486,050
MZZ ~ 58.82 ~ UltraShort MidCap400 ProShares ~ 1,152,700
TNA ~ 31.50 ~ Direxion Small Cap Bull 3X Shares ~ 5,726,540
TZA ~ 51.25 ~ Direxion Small Cap Bear 3X Shares ~ 2,372,190
UWM ~ 18.88 ~ Ultra Russell2000 ProShares ~ 6,771,990
TWM ~ 65.88 ~ UltraShort Russell2000 ProShares ~ 7,357,440
QLD ~ 27.52 ~ Ultra QQQ ProShares ~ 42,563,100
QID ~ 55.29 ~ UltraShort QQQ ProShares ~ 35,581,600
UYM ~ 15.00 ~ Ultra Basic Materials ProShares ~ 8,571,770
SMN ~ 35.52 ~ UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares ~ 3,655,880
ERX ~ 39.57 ~ Direxion Energy Bull 3X Shares ~ 1,300,620
ERY ~ 35.32 ~ Direxion Energy Bear 3X Shares ~ 650,900
UYG ~ 5.19 ~ Ultra Financials ProShares ~ 128,241,000
SKF ~ 118.46 ~ UltraShort Financials ProShares ~ 22,842,700
FAS ~ 20.47 ~ Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares ~ 7,015,540
FAZ ~ 41.65 ~ Direxion Financial Bear 3X Shares ~ 3,268,320
URE ~ 5.34 ~ Ultra Real Estate ProShares ~ 11,683,400
SRS ~ 58.36 ~ UltraShort Real Estate ProShares ~ 10,848,400
DGP ~ 17.13 ~ PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN ~ 1,926,780
DZZ ~ 26.26 ~ PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN ~ 616,314
DIG ~ 29.52 ~ Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares ~ 21,716,800
DUG ~ 24.16 ~ UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares ~ 19,399,000
DXO ~ 2.98 ~ PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN ~ 13,876,000
UCO ~ 12.95 ~ Ultra DJ-AIG Crude Oil ProShares ~ 1,309,540
EEV ~ 51.77 ~ UltraShort MSCI Emerging Mrkts ProShares ~ 3,903,820
FXP ~ 37.75 ~ UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShare ~ 3,018,600
If you daytrade, there’s little reason to watch anything besides these 30-some ETFs.
Related: The Trouble with Daily Leveraged Compounding
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Cat: | Time: 5:12 pm (utc+8) Comments (17)
January 10, 2009
ETF Newsletter in the Email (Still Free!)The system is selling China (FXI) this coming week and my friends in India can guess what it thinks of their market post-Satyam*. The chart below shows that trend following can be both profitable and perilous, but most of all, it requires patience.
Until I get my act together, the ETF newsletter will be free, so email me today if you’d like to join the mailing list.
* Satyam means “truth” in Sanskrit. :-)
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Cat: | Time: 9:17 am (utc+8) Comments (3)
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