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一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 12:17 | 显示全部楼层
Watch List
RBAK may be slightly overbought after today's action, but I am keeping this one on my radar. I like the volume since the gap up. This could turn into a momentum stock.

MESA had a high volume breakout today. Look for continuation. I like this pattern and love breakouts from low ADX readings.

MYOG closed at $38.22 near its all time high. My alert is set at $38.40 andI expect it will be triggered tomorrow on the open.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/01/2006 10:36:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture

After gapping down more than 10 points on the open, the Nasdaq found support near its 10 period EMA and proceeded to rally for the first hour and then again into the close. Volume was moderately high at 2.2 billion shares. The SOX found support at its breakout point, the NBI gapped up on the AMGN news, and networking and hardware stocks did well too. Some big movers of note were RIMM (+9%) on the patent news and MNST (+14%) on a state gov't contract (earnings and guidance were in line). Today's action carved out a bullish engulfing pattern, however, we have yet to take out Friday's high on a closing basis. The last four sessions now look like a small flag pattern is forming. The ADX line, meanwhile, is slowly moving lower.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/01/2006 08:24:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - CLZR
Long CLZR just above the pre-market high. Stock peeked during the 10:00 - 10:10 reversal time. Position sold during the lunch hour doldrums to lock in gains as it appeared that CLZR couldn't take out its morning highs. The intent was to get back in for a late day rally but that opportunity never presented itself. It could be a trading candidate for tomorrow if it bounces from a Fibonacci retracement level (partial retracement of yesterday's low to today's high).

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/01/2006 05:37:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
In Play - Midday Update 2:00 p.m.


GORX
: partial closed at $6.09 and stopped out on the rest
CLZR: Sold 100% at $19.91 to lock in gains.
THOR: Partial profit taken at $19.60 and bought back the rest at $20.05. The stock made a higher low which leads me to believe that price may go up rather than down.

Original Postings

Long: GORX, CLZR

MNST -
Big move off of the low. Waiting for an orderly pullback to see if I can catch a piece of this one.

Short: THOR

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/01/2006 10:08:00 AM 0 comments




Morning Watch List
GORX - Gapping up on strong earnings beat - very good volume in pre-market.
CYMI - Gapping up on earnings beat
AMGN - Roche introducing Cera despite legal challenge
FCEL - Selected by Dept. of Energy to advance polymer exchange - cost sharing project
CLZR, SCSS, ASYT - Strong earnings/guidance

Consolidation Plays:
After a big thrust upwards, the following names have consolidated and may be ready to resume their trek or challenge their recent highs. AVII, RMBS, GVHR, CKFR, HOLX

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/01/2006 08:38:00 AM 0 comments




Leading Sectors
Despite the current overbought situation, Mike Ashbaugh of MarketWatch believes the path of least reistance remains higher and he explains why here.

The NBI broke through its consolidation resistance area today.




The SOX closed on its breakout support today.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/01/2006 08:25:00 AM 0 comments




Tuesday, January 31, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture
The Nasdaq ended the regular session pretty much flat and formed another doji. Volume was higher than yesterday at 2.2 billion shares. Although today's session had a lot of volatility associated with the FOMC policy announcement, the real volatility occured after the close when GOOG released its quarterly results and reported lower than expected margins, a higher tax rate and thus lower EPS. Revenues, on the other hand, were in line. GOOG's results negatively affected most of the internet space in AH as well as many non-internet names such AAPL and BRCM. GOOG is currently trading at $377.50 from a regular session close of $432.00. NDX futures are down 17.5 points. Assuming a large negative gap on tomorrow's open, we could be looking a bearish island reversal pattern. In any case, the last three sessions will likely mark a lower high for the Nasdaq.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/31/2006 06:43:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - SEPR
Bought SEPR in pre-market and I got spooked on the open and sold for small profit. Got back in after lunch for a much better gain. However, I still missed out on over a dollar between the two trades.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/31/2006 05:22:00 PM 0 comments




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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 12:18 | 显示全部楼层
Morning Watch List
NGAS - Chart profiled Monday on Downtown Trader blog- This is a great looking chart (symmetrical triangle) and I will be watching to see how it opens.



Last Nights Earnings Winners:

ZRAN
- Gapped up AH - Beat by $0.08 and guided Q1 higher
ATHR - earnings beat and guided above consensus
KRON - earnings beat and guided above consensus
KFT - earnings beat

Other Earnings:

GILD -
Originally traded down on earnings, but may snap back
SEPR - blow out earnings
NDAQ - trading down

Other Stocks of Interest

PAAS, BCRX, CNXS, RMBS, NGAS, NAPS
(GOOG takeover rumour)







[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/31/2006 01:23:00 AM 0 comments




Monday, January 30, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture
A lower volume, status quo day which is pretty much what was expected given that the FOMC policy annoucement is scheduled for tomorrow. The Nasdaq hardly moved and ended the session with a doji candle.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/30/2006 04:43:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - ENER
After trying unsuccessfully on Friday to buy a snap back play in ENER, today's action was perfect and couldn't even be foiled by Herb Greenberg who appeared on CNBC while the trade was on to reiterate a sell on ENER.



Today's action almost formed a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart. ENER may need a rest after today's move, but I still think it is good for a few more day trades if it attempts to retest its broken trendline.




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/30/2006 04:07:00 PM 0 comments




Sunday, January 29, 2006Leading Tech Sectors
The two leading tech sectors are software (GSO) and the SOX. The SOX is probably going to retest support after last Friday's big move. However, INTC looks ready to bounce up a bit here after the big fall since its earnings release. The GSO moved up nicely on Friday following MSFT's earnings release. Other names that participated in Friday's software rally include ADBE, CHKP (reports tomorrow before the bell - see chart in previous post today), and THQI. Other software names poised to move higher are CKFR and CTXS.

$SOX

$GSO
THQI


CKFR


CTXS




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/29/2006 11:36:00 PM 0 comments




Earnings - Notable Names Reporting Monday
Before the Bell



After the Bell





Before the Bell: CHKP*, RDWR*, XOM, SGP

After the Bell: FISV, GILD*, NDAQ*, ZRAN*

* see chart above

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/29/2006 08:43:00 AM 0 comments




RIMM vs. NTP - The Whole Patent Story
An obscure patent case that could have been settled for a few million bucks has morphed into a billion-dollar dagger hanging over Research in Motion (RIM), an enigma for investors and a distraction for legions of hooked BlackBerry users. A U.S. judge has threatened to shut down RIM's BlackBerry network next month for violating a handful of a dead man's patents — patents that U.S. authorities now concede may not be worth the paper they're printed on.

How it all happened is a twisted tale of bold inventions, hubris, pride, backroom lobbying and one colossal legal blunder by a sometimes naive Canadian startup eager to make it big in the vast U.S. market. To read more click here.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/29/2006 08:18:00 AM 0 comments




Friday, January 27, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture

Yesterday and today's action looks and feels strangely similar to what we had last week on Wed. and Thurs. before the last Friday's fall. However, for now, the tone remains bullish and volume is very high. This week's action snapped back last week's evening star pattern on the weekly chart. It will be interesting to see if we can take out the resistance marked by the green line early next week. The FOMC policy announcement on Tuesday will no doubt, play an important role.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/27/2006 05:33:00 PM 0 comments




ENER - Two Scratches

ENER was profiled here yesterday as a potential snap back play, however, as you can see from the chart, things didn't work out according to plan. Today it closed just below its 20 period EMA on a wide range bearish engulfing bar.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/27/2006 04:20:00 PM 0 comments




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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 12:19 | 显示全部楼层
Friday, January 27, 2006Trade of the Day - GVHR
Profiled here on January 19th as a chart of note for the positive divergence of its RSI, my alert was triggered when price took out January resistance.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/27/2006 03:59:00 PM 0 comments




Morning Watch List
BRCM - Currently trading at $70.16 off of its pre-market high of $74.00
PLAY - Earnings
AVII - License agreement for Hepatitis C virus with Chiron
RBAK - Break of recent trading range in pre-market.
PKTR - Earnings and upgrade
KLAC - Earnings

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/27/2006 09:02:00 AM 0 comments




BRCM - Advances $13 in After Hours Trade
BRCM closed at $72.05 in AH trade on great earnings and bullish guidance. The $72.00 level is resistance dating back to 2000. On a break of $72.00, the next level of resistance is $110.00.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/27/2006 01:00:00 AM 0 comments




Thursday, January 26, 2006Trade of the Day - CKFR

Entered a position in CKFR as a continuation play off of yesterday's big move. This could turn into a momentum stock on a break of the $55.50. Next level of resistance is $60.75. I'm keeping this one on my momentum watchlist.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/26/2006 10:52:00 PM 0 comments




ENER - A Retest of the Broken Trendline?

It looks like ENER may try to retest its broken trendline following today's hammer which closed on the 10 period EMA. I'm putting this one on my watch list for tomorrow.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/26/2006 08:35:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture
Nasdaq Weekly Chart



Nasdaq Daily Chart


Today's action clearly favored the bulls with a very nice performance by the SOX. Nasdaq volume was very high at 2.4 billion shares. Expect the SOX to continue to do well tomorrow on the heels of BRCM's stellar results. The SOX will have no trouble breaking 539 on this, its third try in as many weeks. However, if we look at the Nasdaq weekly chart, it clearly formed an evening star candlestick pattern at the end of last week. Is this week's action on the daily chart a bearish flag? I don't know so I'm taking it one day at a time and as far as tomorrow goes, I'm bullish. NDX futures are up 9 points.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/26/2006 07:38:00 PM 0 comments




Is AMD the New AAPL?

AMD Monthly Chart


AAPL Monthly Chart


How far is AMD going to go? Looking at the monthly chart, it appears to be making a run for its all time high. If we go back to Oct. - Nov. 2004, AAPL's chart looked fairly similar to how AMD's chart looks now. Just a thought. But wait a minute, wasn't Apple always considered Dell's less worthy rival up until the Ipod. And hasn't AMD always been considered an under achiever in comparison to Intel. Hmm, AMD versus INTC and Steve Jobs versus Michael Dell.

Speaking of AAPL, look at that gravestone doji that's taking shape for January. I know the month isn't over yet, but it's not looking good. Also, AAPL violated its 50 SMA on the daily chart today. So clearly we are in need of a replacement for AAPL in 2006 and AMD is starting to look like a good candidate.
This post is just an observation and does not constitute a buy/sell recommendation.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/26/2006 03:38:00 PM 0 comments




CMG - Lives Up to its Hype
Nice action on CMG this morning. I personally don't like to trade stocks with such a wide spread between the bid and ask, but good trading for those who do!

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/26/2006 12:25:00 PM 0 comments




In Play - CKFR and TWTR
CKFR - On a break of yesterday's high. Profit on 50% taken after a 1 point gain.

TWTR - On a break of resistance at $8.00 - good for a quick point on a scalp (10 minutes) but its almost come back in to $8.00.

CKFR Update 1:30 p.m. - Sold the balance of this position at $55.27

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/26/2006 12:11:00 PM 0 comments




ENER - Herb Greenberg Poops on Energy Conversion and the Trendline is Violated

Since late December ENER has been a real momentum play and as a day trader, I've had a lot of fun with it. It went from $38 to $58 in just under one month. But MarketWatch's Herb Greenberg put an end to the party with his commentary Wednesday morning. Sound familiar?... Barron's and SUF.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/26/2006 12:32:00 AM 0 comments




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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 12:20 | 显示全部楼层
Nasdaq Technical Picture


At one point it looked like today's action would form a bearish engulfing candle, however with the attempted rally in the last hour of trade, we're still in this narrow trading range confined to the lower portion of last Friday's bearish candle. Volume today was 2.17 billion shares. The ADX is now 18.16, a level not seen since October and the +D and -D are kissing which is technically in line with the lacklustre, directionless action of the past three days.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/25/2006 08:30:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - CKFR




MXIM - Late Day Trade


I was about to close early because the market was going nowhere and decided to check Briefing.com just in case. At 3:22 a volume alert for MXIM read "MXIM spikes over a dollar in past ten minutes." I waited for the pullback and proper entry and managed to get half a point from this late day trade.

CKFR - Trade of the Day



Click on charts for larger views.

Even though I missed the big move in the morning, I was able to score 1.5 points on CKFR as it took out the morning resistance.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/25/2006 06:31:00 PM 0 comments




Morning Watch List
SLAB - Earnings - high pre-market volume
AVII - Momentum stock
TRMB, CKFR, NFLX - Earnings and guidance AH yesterday
RFMD - Earnings and upgrade
APPB - Jan comps and 2 upgrades

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/25/2006 09:14:00 AM 0 comments




Tuesday, January 24, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture

The Nasdaq formed a bullish harami in the lower half of Friday's wide range bar on relatively good volume (2.05 billion shares). Today marks the second day in a row where the opening range (first half hour) defined the high and the low of the entire day's trade as highlighted on the 15 minute chart above. We are still waiting for a catalyst to move the market more agressively in one direction or the other. In the meantime, its a stock pickers market.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/24/2006 07:01:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - RELV
The trade of the Day was RELV. Thanks to DT for highlighting this name on the Downtown Trader blog yesterday. This stock is not liquid so patience pays off.

The SMH had a very high trade count in pre-market, so I took this BRCM trade on the open with no intention of holding beyond 15-20 minutes. It worked out perfectly as you can see from the chart. I learned this the hard way. Unless the gap up is a story or momentum stock or the market has a strong trend, these gap plays are usually very short in duration and often have sharp pullbacks as BRCM did this morning. Lesson learned - sell into stength. You can always get back in if there is a shallow, low volume pullback.

AVII was a quick, late day scalp on a break of a consolidation triangle. It closed on strength so it will be on my watch list tomorrow morning. I had a great trade with this name on Friday and after two consolidation days, it may be ready to pop again.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/24/2006 05:28:00 PM 0 comments




Morning Watch List
NDX futures are up slightly at this hour. Stocks trading up on high vloume in pre-markets: IMCL, ARBA, CPST,VTSS

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/24/2006 09:22:00 AM 0 comments




Charts of Note

Click on chart for larger view.


I ran several scans tonight but was hard pressed to find anything of real note. However, I did notice that DTAS performed relatively well today on high volume. This name may have potential to run up in advance of its earnings report on Thursday. Also, by the same token, SNDK had a strong day today and unlike many high flyers that rallyed in the morning and gave back their gains in the afternoon, it managed to close near its highs. SNDK also reports on Thursday.


PETS closed on its highs and remains on my watch list for tomorrow as a momentum play. Other names that I am watching are RELV and BRCM


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/24/2006 01:53:00 AM 0 comments




Monday, January 23, 2006Canada Votes Today
I'm off to the voting station and will no doubt spend most of the evening watching the results on TV. Hope to be able to post a few charts later. It's nice to know that one prominent American cares enough about the outcome to post this message to Canadians!

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/23/2006 04:37:00 PM 0 comments




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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 12:20 | 显示全部楼层
Monday, January 23, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture
Click on chart for larger view.
We are virtually unchanged from Friday's close. Although volume was good at 1.9 billion shares, we couldn't move the tape. Except for the mid-morning rally, the market felt weak most of the day. I was hoping for a rally into the close, but at 3:15 I gave up on that idea. I think we need some outstanding earnings results from a few big names to turn things around.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/23/2006 04:11:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - PETS
Click on chart for larger view.
As mentioned previously in the Morning Watch List and In Play posts. Surprisingly, because I have a tendancy to overtrade, this was my one and only trade today.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/23/2006 03:54:00 PM 0 comments




In Play Update
PETS - Sold my remaining shares on the bid between $17.08-17.11 because this market feels weak.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/23/2006 03:18:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
PETS - Bought at $16.11. Exited 50% at $17.11.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/23/2006 01:43:00 PM 0 comments




Morning Watch List
RMBS - Heavy volume in pre-market trade - announced the repurchase of 5 million shares
F- Favorable earnings report
ITRI - Signed contract
MOSY - Barron's Online
PETS - Reported favorable earnings

Looking at a few momentum names that are still well positioned after Friday's slide: ANTP, ENER, AVII, NUVO, CMED, ZEUS, RELV


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/23/2006 08:18:00 AM 0 comments




Sunday, January 22, 2006Futures
Nasdaq futures have turned negative and Asian markets are sharply lower at this hour. For an

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/22/2006 11:55:00 PM 0 comments




Friday, January 20, 2006Technical Analysis
All the pros will be weighing in with technical analysis over the weekend to explain why the markets cratered today. I plan to read them all, but for now here is one of my personal favorites Mike Ashbaugh

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/20/2006 08:46:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture



Click on charts for larger views.



Wow, what an ugly chart. Trader Mike was right, yesterday's action was a dead cat bounce. Today's outcome was decisively bearish and supported by high volume (2.4 billion shares). The P&F chart is now indicating a bearish reversal is in play with a preliminary target of 2180 which would bring us 10 points lower than the January low and break the trend line. The extension of the rounded top formation, which I now see clearly, is usually quite brutal. The Nasdaq closed on its lows and is sitting on its 50 period MA. Next week will be interesting.



GOOGgave back $37 today. I rarely look at the GOOG chart because its lofty price keeps it out of my repertoire of potential trades. However, when I heard Maria Bartiromo talk about it on CNBC this afternoon, I decided to have a look. I noticed that the GOOG chart also has a rounded top with the addition of a falling window pattern (same as discuused for AAPL here yesterday). It looks like some of 2005's winners could get a bad start in 2006.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/20/2006 04:37:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - AVII

It doesn't get much better than this. Click on chart for larger view and entry and exit notes.

Update 1:20 p.m. - Word of caution -the 5 minute chart is starting to look like a H&S top.

Update 3:35 p.m. - Took a small long postion this afternoon $7.97. Sold half at $8.13 when it became apparent that this was not likely to go anywhere. Stopped out on the rest.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/20/2006 12:58:00 PM 0 comments




Morning Watch List
Yesterday's winners could be today's losers. Semis looking weak this morning. So far there's nothing too inspiring in pre-market. I will be trading light today due to options expiration.

FAST - Missed earnings by a penny. Price gapping down almost 4 points in pre-market.

RHAT - Gapping up nicely on increase in target price from $29 to $37 at First Albany

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/20/2006 08:15:00 AM 0 comments




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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 12:21 | 显示全部楼层
Thursday, January 19, 2006Charts of Note
GVHR - Short interst is 7% of the float and this stock looks ready to take off soon.

FAST - reports earnings tomorrow before the bell. Closed at an all time high today.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/19/2006 11:15:00 PM 0 comments




Intraday Trades - AAPL, NVLS, BRCM
AAPL - I had a bias going into the day that AAPL would close its opening gap. My entry was a reversal off of two side by side dojis. Just six bars into the trade a bearish engulfing candle appeared and I immediately dumped my shares. I tried to short but didn't get hit, so I waited patiently for a decisive reversal pattern. I found it on the first higher low - a bullish engulfing bar emerged and I placed my order on the next bar as price took out the high of the bullish reversal bar. I held it for just over a point as price was about to run into the declining 50 period MA.


NVLS - As highlighted here this morning on my watch list, NVLS was up in pre-market and had momentum going in from yesterday's big move. I placed a buy stop order just above the pre-market high so that I could concentrate on other trades.


BRCM - Gapped up too high and couldn't get anything going from there. Waited for a pullback and reversal signal hoping for an eventual breakout of the morning high but the break never materialized. Just the same, the bounce off of the rising 50 period MA, was good for a 1/2 point.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/19/2006 08:08:00 PM 0 comments




AAPL - Dumpling Top - Bearish Reversal
Click on chart for larger view.
Today's trading action could be the start of a deeper pullback for AAPL. From the chart above you will note that today's gap open was not filled in early trade, following which AAPL carved out a wide range bearish candle. All of this coming off of a rounded top = a bearish dumpling reversal top.
I'll be back later with some intraday charts.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/19/2006 04:48:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture
Click on chart for larger view.


[size=130%]Bullish Island Reversal
The Nasdaq gapped up and spent the morning rallying to close the bearish gap from Tuesday. In the afternoon it pulled back to 2300. Volume was above average at just over 2.0 billion shares. The Nasadaq closed above its 10 period EMA carving out a bullish island reversal off of yesterday's close. Semis keyed off of the favourable AMD results last night and decided that the INTC story was specific to it. Options expiration tomorrow - always difficult to play.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/19/2006 04:25:00 PM 0 comments




Morning Watch List
NDX Futures are up by 9 points. Semis and internet stocks trading up in pre-market. Jefferies recommends its clients to add to positions in BRCM, PLAY, TRID

BRCM - Bullish Flag and trading up $1+ in pre-market
AAPL - Earnings gap recovery
ANTP - Looks like it wants to take out $20
FCEL - Also looks like it wants to break out of its mini consolidation
EBAY, AMD, LRCX - earnings gap plays
NVLS - momentum continuation and Amtech upgrade

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/19/2006 08:25:00 AM 0 comments




Wednesday, January 18, 2006AAPL - After Hours Trade

Click on charts for larger views.
The top chart shows AAPL on the close, before earnings. The second chart is a five minute chart of the AH trading which you will notice was quite liquid. I rarely trade AH on earnings because as the conference call progresses, things could and often do change. However, I couldn't resist taking a very small position in AAPL tonight and it was beautiful.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/18/2006 08:28:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture
Click on chart for Larger view.
After gapping down some 37 points on the open, the Nasdaq quickly recovered 20 points and spent the rest of the day in a slow dip/recovery mode. The close was bullish in that the 20 period EMA was recovered. Volume was on the high side at 2.06 billion. In after hours trade, several big names were off (EBAY, AAPL) while others (AMD, LRCX) were up. AAPL was a good AH trade as it retraced almost 60% off of its lows and closed at the 50% retracement line. TheNDX futures are positive by four points. All in all, the market looks poised to attempt to close the rest of the gap.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/18/2006 07:58:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - BRCM
Click on chart for larger view.

In this morning's pre-market BRCM was trading just below its gap support going back to Jan. 10-11. I entered the trade when price broke above the gap support line. I stayed in the trade all day hoping for an eventual break of the bullish flag pattern. That did not happen and I exited on the close. BRCM traded slightly higher in the after-market and looks poised to move higher tomorrow.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/18/2006 07:34:00 PM 0 comments




Morning Watch List
Chart of GMXR - looks well positioned to test its recent high.

Short:


Semis and internet stocks will be weak following INTC and YHOO earnings last night. Some names in the same space will bounce off of the lower open creating shorting opportunities. IBM seems to have recovered from yesterday's late day swoon and is actually trading up slightly at this moment.


Long:

CELG - Yesterday's bullish engulfing pattern following a shallow pullback.
CERS, CRED- Continuation following yesterday's high volume breakout.
FCEL - On a break of $9.70 consolidation level. BLDP also pulling itself up from a downtrend.
TRAD - Continuation
CMED - Could make a break higher anytime now.
GMXR - Continuation from yesterday and potential attempt to break of all time high set last month (refer to chart above)



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/18/2006 07:46:00 AM 0 comments




Tuesday, January 17, 2006Trade of the Day - ANTP
Click on chart for larger view.
Whenever a stock makes a high volume breakout and closes near its high as ANTP did on Friday, I look for continuation the following day. My entry was 0.12 above Friday's high and based the daily chart, I estmated it could go anywhere from $19.00 - $19.50. I was conservative and took a profit at $19.00 but I could have let 50% ride for an additional point.
ANTP closed just above its 200 period SMA on the daily chart, but it formed a long upper shadow so we may be in for some cosolidation on this name tomorrow.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/17/2006 05:30:00 PM 1 comments




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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 12:24 | 显示全部楼层
Tuesday, January 17, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture
Click on chart for larger view.
The Nasdaq gave us another doji today after gapping lower it retested support which is now resistance at 2306 (green line). After dipping lower through to 1:30, the market made its way back and closed at the same level it opened. Volume was a touch higher than Friday and the 60 day average but much lower than the average for the last 10 days. A lacklustre day for anyone looking to go short.
The after market action, however, is very bearish. Nasdaq futures are currently trading down by 31 points on the heals of three bellweather disappointments - IBM, INTC, and YHOO. Besides these three names most of the other big names in the same space are trading down in sympathy. Look for another bearish gap on the open tomorrow.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/17/2006 04:55:00 PM 0 comments




Friday, January 13, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture
Another lower volume day for the Nasdaq as it came within 2 points of touching the green support line. A nice bounce mid-morning which gave some momentum stocks a lift. The afternoon was pretty slow. So far we have a nice orderly pullback. Today's candlestick formed a doji which leaves Tuesday's prospects open to reverse. Earnings season starts next week and we all know how that can create havoc.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/13/2006 04:13:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - ECLP
From my watchlist this morning. Turned out even better than I could have imagined given the weak market conditions.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/13/2006 03:54:00 PM 1 comments




In Play Update
ANTP - Consolidating for another potential play

ADSK - Also pulling back and could see a nice setup in the area of $42.10

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/13/2006 10:07:00 AM 0 comments




Morning Watch List
ANTP - Would like to see this gap up on earnings pullback to the $13.00 area. Stock has potential to go to at least $15.00 based on the daily chart resistance.

ECLP - Potential to break out of consolidation flag pattern above yesterday's high of $21.44.


UHCO - I would like to buy at $18.12 as it consolidates nicely near its gap up highs (refer to chart above). P.S. Goldman has just upgraded the stock so it will gap up.

SNDK - Gapping down on Bear Stearns downgrade.

GDT - Could be in play again due to news of BSX offer to acquire. Gapping up above yesterday's close.

ENER, DESC, FCEL - Momentum

ADBE - On a shallow pullback, could attempt to go higher.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/13/2006 07:55:00 AM 0 comments




Thursday, January 12, 2006Trade of the Day - ENER
Click on chart for larger view.
The trade of the day was ENER (refer to InPlay section below for entry and exit notes). The reason I am re-posting the ENER chart is to show that it stayed quite strong while the market fell this afternoon. The area between the blue lines is the midday doldrums and the blue lines mark support and resistance. As the market fell ENER did not stray too far outside of support and even managed to test resistance between 2:00 and 3:00. Of course the tall upper shadow on the daily chart could be hinting of a pullback, but I will wait for confirmation. This name along with DESC, the other solar energy play that did well today, could be in play again tomorrow.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/12/2006 05:27:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture

Click on charts for larger views.

The first chart shows that the McClellan Oscillator is headed lower from its recent highs. The Nasdaq daily chart shows that today's action is clearly bearish with today's close well below yesterday's open. (We didn't get much a bounce from this afternoon's free fall. ) The green line approximates intial support in the 2306 area which is about 10 points from where we are now. The double blue lines at 2280 show a level of notable gap support. My trading strategy during the pullback will be cautious and I will concentrate more on story stocks, gap plays, and momentum stocks rather than best of breed.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/12/2006 05:05:00 PM 0 comments




In Play Update

ENER - Nice move this morning. Currently in an orderly pullback and could come back into play later in the day.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/12/2006 10:17:00 AM 0 comments




Morning Watch List
ENER - California's solar energy bill (vote today) could put this name in play again today. I would like to see a shallow pullback in the $46.25 area before getting back in.

AAPL - Another upgrade and the stock is trading in the $85.00 range in pre-market.

IDNX - Being acquired by VISG. Traded as high as $7.66 in pre-market after a big spike yesterday. Currently trading at $6.90.

BRCM - Trading slightly lower in pre-market.

FFIV - I'm looking to see if this name can bounce after yesterday's gap down hammer.

KLAC - Added to Merrill Lynch Focus List. To date this name has been a laggard in the semi rally. I'm watching to see if it can break out of the current range on this info.

CRY - Currently trading at $4.30 on the news of FDA approval. This level marks Tuesday's top and notable resistance from the past. A break of this level would leave it open to reach for the next level of resistance - $6.00.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/12/2006 08:35:00 AM 0 comments




Wednesday, January 11, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture
Daily

60 Minute

Click on charts for larger view.
Still no reversal signal on the daily chart. In fact volume outpaced every day of the rally so far. But as we all know, euphoric volume often precedes a reversal. That said, there was a lack of momentum into the close and many of my trades today were like scalps due to this lack of momentum. By looking at the 60 minute chart for the Nasdaq, we can see that the ADX line has swooned over the last two days. The 2328 resistance level mentioned here on Monday may be in play. We'll see tomorrow.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/11/2006 04:42:00 PM 0 comments




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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 15:43 | 显示全部楼层
Wednesday, January 11, 2006Trade of the Day - ENER
Click on chart for larger view.

I lucked out with this one. After missing my planned entry point, I waited for the stock to consolidate. Using the 1 minute chart, I was able to get in at a reasonably low risk entry level.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/11/2006 04:05:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
ADBE - Trading at the 52 week high.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/11/2006 12:30:00 PM 0 comments




Morning Watch List
AAPL - Traded as high as $84.16 in pre-market. It is starting to pull back in now and I'll be looking for a good entry point.

Update 9:30 - AAPL - Picked it up at $83.48 and sold at $83.90 in pre-market.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/11/2006 08:22:00 AM 0 comments




Tuesday, January 10, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture
Click on chart for larger view.
We're still in bullish mode despite a one day consolidation. I don't see any threat to the bullish scenario on this daily chart. We seem to have picked up some momentum into the close on the skirt tails fo the AAPL announcements at the Mac World show.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/10/2006 05:31:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - UHCO
Click on chart for larger view.
I believe in giving credit where credit is due, so I'd like to mention that I learned this type of setup trade (large gap-up) by reading Trader - X.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/10/2006 04:21:00 PM 0 comments




In Play Update
ELOS - Stopped out.
BRCM - Took my profit too soon. Looks like we may see a pullback off of this morning's high. Too much supply at the $55.80 - $55.90 level.
ENER - Bought @ $44.12 and sold $44.30 because it does not appear that this is going anywhere soon.
UHCO - I'm watching to see how this plays out on a pullback of this morning's gap for a possible entry in the area of $17.00.

Update 3:05 p.m.
UHCO - Purchased this morning at $17.35. This stock has had a nice move in the last hour but otherwise very slow moving. I have a target of $18.40 but since its after 3:00 and we seem to have a lot of indecision at the $18.00 level, I've put a tighter stop ($17.93) so as to avoid losing most of the profit so far.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/10/2006 11:02:00 AM 0 comments




In Play
ELOS - Bought ELOS as it took out yesterday's high (my price $29.06)
BRCM - Bought BRCM at $54.35 and sold at $54.99
ENER - Not triggered yet, looking for a break of $44.00 resistance

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/10/2006 09:58:00 AM 0 comments




Morning Watch List
ELOS - Potential bounce - yesterday's action resulted in a bullish engulfing reversal pattern. Waiting to see how it opens because I don't like too much overlap in the real candlestick bodies.
BRCM - Gapped up in early trade this morning following a favourable Cramer mention last night but that's not the main reason that it's on my watch list this morning. It has just carved out three white candlestick soldiers which usually implies further strength. Next level of resistance is $55.00, following which we have blue skys until the $72.00 area. For sure we need to consolidate in the $55.00 area before moving forward, but this is a stock that I'm keeping on my radar.
ENER - Carved out a bearish engulfing pattern yesterday at an area of resistance. However, after the close a contract with Ford was announced which gave the stock an after market bounce. Could be good for a day trade.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/10/2006 08:18:00 AM 0 comments




Monday, January 09, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture
Click on charts for larger views.


There's no sign of a reversal on the daily chart despite the great run since the start of the new year. In fact, the ADX line is just now starting to turn up above 20. However, if we look at the longer range weekly view, we can see that we will be running into resistance shortly at the 2328 level which dates back to May 2001.





[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/09/2006 05:08:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - BRCM
Click on chart for larger view.
I wasn't able to trade this morning because eSignal's level II quote screens were not working properly. I'm not sure if it was a Nasdaq glitch or an eSignal problem. Anyway, by the time I was able to get back into the game, most of the best opportunities were finished.

Here is a trade I took hoping for a 62% retracement from the high of the day. As luck would have it, I was very happy when it retraced 100%. My entry was based on taking out the open of the last red candle of the pullback. As you can see from the chart, this was triggered on the second green candle @ $53.28. I stayed in the trade until near the close and adjusted my stops along the way because when the 62% retracement level was reached, I felt it could go higher.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/09/2006 04:43:00 PM 0 comments




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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 15:44 | 显示全部楼层
Sunday, January 08, 2006Bullish Engulfing Stock Scan


In this scan I am looking for stocks trading over $5.00 with an average daily volume of 500k which carved out a bullish engulfing pattern on Friday. These two names are the most interesting because they are trading within very close reach of their November - December highs.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/08/2006 11:31:00 PM 0 comments




Momemtum Stock Scan




After looking at some of the bigger moves of this past week, it looks like most of my favourites are topping out so I've run a momentum scan with the following parameters for Friday's closing prices. A close of 1.05 versus Thusday's close on twice the average daily volume with a minimum volume average of 500k over the last 20 trading days and a minimum price of $2.00(Nasdaq market only).

Here are some of the more interesting charts from this scan. These names look poised to move higher in the coming days:
  • ECLP looks particularly good on the weekly chart as it is testing resistance at $21.00 which dates back to the end of 2004. Next resistance level is $25-26.
  • NDAQ could retest its recent highs.
  • HANS could also retest recent highs.
  • BRKS could be a winner on a clean break of the 200 SMA.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/08/2006 10:47:00 PM 0 comments




Friday, January 06, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture

Click on charts for larger views.


The performance of the Nasdaq this week was awesome. From Tuesday's low to today's close, the Nasdaq added 116 points. From the P&F chart above, I noted that the rally is expected to reach 2510 up from 2410 estimated earlier this week. From the current level of 2305, that gives us another 200 points. Expect a pullback or at least some consolidation as the market probably needs to pause after such a great run.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/06/2006 11:22:00 PM 0 comments




Review of Last Night's Watchlist
NIHD - Gap up on the open and immediate reversal back to yesterday's lows. A second breakout attempt failed in the morning, but finally by 12:30 a new rally took hold, adding almost a point by 2:00. The stock closed at $47.00 forming a hammer as it asccends close to its 52 week high of $48.23 set in Mid-December. Support at $46.50 and resistance is $47.00.

CUTR - Narrow range doji - resting after yesterday's big move. No trade taken today.

XRTX - The high was set in pre-market, no trade triggered as the stock moved lower throughout the open market.

BRCM - Gap up on the open, followed by a move back to test yesterday's close. The stock remained in a low volume, narrow trading range until 11:20 when it successfully broke out, closing on its highs. From the breakout point of $50.50 to the close $52.40 was almost a 2 point move.

FFIV - Gapped up on the open amd immediately turned south giving back $1.20. By the end of the day it had retraced back to yesterday's close.

QCOM - Gapped up and never looked back. Closed on its highs. Good for over 2 points.

ISIL - Formed a narrow doji type candle from a very narrow trading day. No trade was triggered.

ADBE - Broke out on high volume miday from $38.65, however, volume diminished after a few minutes and ADBE traded up to $39.00, languishing there for the remainder of the day.

RIMM - Gapped up on the open and pushed north for 3 points by mid-day. In the afternoon it gave back 1.5 points.

Except for XRTX, most of these names will stay on the watchlist and I will update the list and the trading plan over the weekend.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/06/2006 09:38:00 PM 0 comments




Pre-market Action - Top trade Counts
XRTX, PGNX, TASR, AFFX, ENWV, XXIA
RIMM - strong holiday sales of 8700c

Usual Suspects: GOOG, YHOO, BOOM, SIRI, MSFT,AAPL, SNDK, BRCM

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/06/2006 08:36:00 AM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - BRCM
Click on chart for larger view.
BRCM made a new 52 week high today. Not much to explain here that's not obvious from the entry and exit points and the Fibonacci retracements.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/06/2006 12:06:00 AM 0 comments




Thursday, January 05, 2006Watch List
NIHD - Traded in the top 20% of yesterday's bullish wide range bar. After the close moved up near today's high.
Close $46.18
AH $46.43
High $46.48
Resistance - $47.30

CUTR - Gapped up and turned in a fairly wide bar closing above its 10 period EMA on the daily chart. Despite today's move it still has a ways to go to reach the 38% retracement level of the highs in mid- December.
Close $27.69
Resistance $28.26
38% retracement level - $31.85

XRTX - Trading up in AH on a big beat and raised revenue guidance. Trading at $19.24 in AH versus a close of $17.60. All time high is $21.87

BRCM - Closed above its 52 week high - Momentum (see today's Trade of the Day)

FFIV - today's action resulted in a doji spinning top and could signal a pullback which, even at 38% of the last leg up, would be good for at least 3 points.

QCOM - Traded in the top 25% of yesterday's bullish wide range bar.

ISIL - May retest December highs.

ADBE - resume the move higher after a 38% retracement of Tuesday's wide range bar.

RIMM - Same as QCOM

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/05/2006 10:52:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture
Click on chart for larger view.



Wow, let me catch my breath! Look for resistance as we approach a retest of the December highs.
[size=85%]



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/05/2006 08:13:00 PM 0 comments




Pre-market Action - Top trade Counts
RMBS - Won 1st phase of Hynix trial
NUVO
SWIR
GILD
JDSU
NVEC
PWEI
BCRX

RIMM - after large run-up yesterday pm, check for pullback around $68.00 level.

N.B. Levels of technical interest published by Briefing.com for RMBS and NUVO

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/05/2006 08:53:00 AM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - NIHD


Click on chart for larger view.
As discussed here over the weekend, NIHD was ripe for a reversal following an orderly pullback from the December high and a hammer last Friday. Another hammer was carved out yesterday strengthening the reversal potential with the formation of a very bullish tweezer bottom. I'm keeping this one on my radar for further moves. The stock closed near its highs so it could go higher in early action tomorrow.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/05/2006 01:22:00 AM 0 comments




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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 15:45 | 显示全部楼层
Thursday, January 05, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture

Click on charts for larger views.

In just two sessions, the Nasdaq has gone from a lower low to a higher high so the market is displaying a lot of momentum to start the new year. As you can see from the P&F chart, the next target is now 2410.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/05/2006 12:45:00 AM 0 comments




Wednesday, January 04, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture - Intraday Update

Nasdaq is showing signs of exhaustion as the RSI is now exhibiting negative divergence of the latest higher highs on the 5 and 15 minute time frames.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/04/2006 01:23:00 PM 0 comments




Intraday Charts - IMGC and BOOM


Click on charts for larger views.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/04/2006 12:08:00 PM 0 comments




Active Positions
IMGC - pre-market resistance taken out

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/04/2006 10:14:00 AM 0 comments




Pre-market Action - Top trade Counts
GRMN - downgrade - notable support area $63.80, currently trading at $65.00 down from close of $67.36
BOOM - trading higher - no news
ALKS - Cramer
MERX - Earnings Beat and upgrade
IMGC - Earnings - currently trading at $34.40, next level of resistance $35.40
EGHT - Distribution agreement
SONS - Equipment chosen by Vonage
ELOS - Trading up after the big fall - retracement levels have been plotted

SNDA
NBIX

Plus the usual suspects: AAPL, SNDK, GOOG

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/04/2006 08:11:00 AM 0 comments




Tuesday, January 03, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture
Click on chart for larger view.

The Nasdaq put together quite a remarkable reversal day following the release of the FOMC minutes, despite the uninspiring early morning trade. After gapping up 10 points off of the open, the Nasdaq pulled back well below Friday's close, thus filling the gap from Friday's action. By mid-morning the Nasdaq was down to 2189, carving out a bearish engulfing pattern. However, although this was clearly a lower low, the RSI was showing positive divergence from Friday's low on the shorter time frame. Needless to say, if you took a position at or near the mid-morning low, you were paid off handsomely by the end of the day. Expect the market to digest these gains tomorrow.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/03/2006 11:58:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - ADBE


Click on chart for larger view.
As noted in the Pre-market section here this morning, ADBE was trading up and looked good to take out recent resistance in the area of $37.30. However, on the open ADBE fell over and proceeded south for the first full hour of trade. Just as things started looking pretty bleak, the stock halted and slowly started moving back up. A position was taken on the first higher low on the 5 min. chart with a target of 62-100% retracement of the pre-market high. 50% of the position was exited when the 62% retracement was achieved. Just after the FOMC minutes were released, the market took off and so did ADBE. The Fibonacci extension tool was used to determine a secondary target. At the 62% extension of the pre-market high, price stalled, but it soon became clear the rally would continue so I stayed in the position until the second red arrow. After a shallow pullback, ADBE continued its ascent into the close. Since the stock closed on its highs, it will be on my radar again tomorrow.
Why was the trade taken?
After an orderly pullback (very little overlap of the candle real bodies), a piercing reversal candle formed off of the low. The trade was executed just off of the first higher low, another encouraging signal.
What was the target?
Fibonacci retracement. The eventual target was extended during the course of the trade as new information (reaction to FOMC minutes) cast a more bullish tone to the trade.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/03/2006 06:06:00 PM 0 comments




Pre-market Action - Top trade Counts
RMBS - patent license agreement with AMD. Currently trading at $18.00, next level of resistance is $19.10.

ELOS
TEVA
PTIE
INTC
BRCM

On the downside - MERQE, JBLU, UARM

ADBE looks set to make a move from its recent consolidation level - trading at $37.27 in pre-market.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/03/2006 08:31:00 AM 0 comments




Sunday, January 01, 2006Watch List - Ripe for Reversal
PAYX peaked in late November and has since carved out a series of lower highs and lower lows. It is now coming into an area of congestion at the $38.00 level. A retracement from the last leg down by 38-62% would tie in nicely with two congestion areas on the smaller time frame. This is not a buy recommendation, just a name to keep on the radar screen. I also see some positive divergences of the RSI and ADX line on the 15 minute time frame.



Click on charts for larger views.
After an orderly pullback from the mid-December high, NIHD's late afternoon bounce formed a hammer reversal bar closing on the 50 period SMA. NIHD looks well positioned to retrace at least 38% of the pullback should the market rebound this week. This would bring the price back up to the $45.00 area.




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 1/01/2006 02:20:00 AM 0 comments




Saturday, December 31, 2005A Few Rules to Trade by in 2006
  • Concentrate on fewer, more profitable trades per day.
  • Document my favourite trade setups.
  • Develop a multi-level watchlist (day, swing and position levels) and put more money to work.
  • Plan the trade and trade the plan as opposed to taking my profit too soon.
  • Enhance stops - a. don't forget the stop; and, b. make sure it is set at a strategic level.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 12/31/2005 06:09:00 AM 0 comments




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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 15:46 | 显示全部楼层
Saturday, December 31, 2005Nasdaq Technical Picture

Click on chart for larger view.

As hinted at here yesterday, the market moved lower again today, closing 2005 with a marginal gain of about 1.5%. The Nasdaq gapped down on the open and moved lower through most of the morning. A minor rally off the lows lifted the market slightly to form a small hammer just above the 50 period SMA. From the chart we can see that this area marks minor support from the mid-November high (blue segment). If today's gap down is not filled in early action next week, it will act as future resistance.

Happy new year everyone and best wishes for a very prosperous 2006 trading year!


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 12/31/2005 05:52:00 AM 0 comments




Friday, December 30, 2005Trade of the Day - ENER

Good for a 62% retracement of yesterday's high to this morning's opening hammer bar on the 15 minute chart. The trade was taken as price passed above yesterday's afternoon support which was now resistance.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 12/30/2005 12:57:00 PM 0 comments




Pre-market Action - Top trade Counts
ELOS
OMNI
ADSX

Plus the usual suspects AAPL, SNDK, GOOG, INTC

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 12/30/2005 08:52:00 AM 0 comments




Thursday, December 29, 2005Nasdaq Technical Picture

Click on chart for larger view

Today's trading resulted in a close just a touch below the 2219 pivot point which has been in play since mid November. The Nasdaq fell in late afternoon trade due, according to some, to lack of institutional participation in this holiday week.

If the market closes below LL1 tomorrow we can expect a measured move lower from the H&S Top in the 32% retracement area of the October - Novemeber rally. This could be positive for the market overall if the pullback occurs in an orderly fashion.

LH designates a lower high and LL designates a lower low. Since early December the Nasdaq has carved out two lower highs and one lower low the latter of which could be taken out shortly.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 12/29/2005 09:37:00 PM 0 comments




Bad Trade - ENER

Lesson Learned

Keep a tight stop when taking a position in momentum stocks on the open.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 12/29/2005 02:50:00 PM 0 comments




Watch List
ENER - closed on its highs yesterday
MEDX - Still a momentum play but I expect an intraday pullback after such a nice run
ADBE - Yesterday's doji could setup a bullish reversal
BOOM - pullback to gap support
CEPH/ALKS - Story stocks and CEPH momentum
MFLX/MOT - Story stocks on incr. guidance
PALM - Consolidation after gap up

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 12/29/2005 07:54:00 AM





Pre-market Action - Top trade Counts
ALKS - FDA Vivitrol - currently trading at $18.80, next resistance level is the November high $19.87
QDEL - Influenza
CELG - Story Stock

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 12/29/2005 07:37:00 AM





Wednesday, December 28, 2005Nasdaq Technical Picture

Today's action resulted in a narrow range hammer like candle which held support in the 2221 area. In candlestick charting, the hammer is usually a reversal signal.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 12/28/2005 08:46:00 PM





Trade of the Day - ENER

Click on Chart for larger view
How and Why was the Trade Executed
ENER was identified as an important pre-market mover based on the trade count level. The next step was to identify and map existing support and resistance levels from the daily chart view. These are identified in light blue on the chart above.
The next thing to do is check Briefing.com or a similar service for news on the stock to determine if it has potential beyond the pre-market action. Unfortunately, Briefing missed this one until later in the day.
The next step is to see how it moves just after the open. ENER observed recent resistance as support which was a positive sign. It was now safe to enter a position. I waited for a good setup because I didn't want to buy it too far above its 10 period EMA on the five minute chart.
Shortly after 10:00 the stock had a shallow pullback in which it observed the December high as support. As the stock lifted from its narrow consolidation, a position was entered (blue arrow).
The position was stopped out during lunch and re-entered shortly after 1:00 as the stock crossed above the 10 period EMA. The late afternoon euphoric volume spike foreshadowed the end of the party and the stop was tightened.
N.B. - ENER closed very near the high of the day, so keep this one on your radar tomorrow morning.




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 12/28/2005 07:32:00 PM 0 comments




Pre-market Action - Top trade Counts
CELG - FDA approval of Revlimid. Closed yesterday at $57.48 and currently trading at $60.20. Resistance levels are the December high $62.50 and November high $63.27

AFFX, ENER, CALM, EBAY, RGEN

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 12/28/2005 09:09:00 AM 0 comments




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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 15:47 | 显示全部楼层
Wednesday, December 28, 2005Watch List
ADBE gapped up on earnings two weeks ago and has since pulled back to gap support on low volume. Could be in play if gap support holds.

MEDX - Momentum stock from high volume breakout two weeks ago.

Support $13.00
Resistance $17.00
Close Tuesday $13.42

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 12/28/2005 01:13:00 AM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture
After gapping up and reaching the extension of its H&S neckline in early trade, the Nasdaq went on to shed 22.5 points carving out an ominous looking bearish engulfing pattern. The next major support level is 2219 which lines up with the doji morning star reversal from last week. The Nasdaq closed on its low so expect a weak open in the morning.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 12/28/2005 12:43:00 AM 0 comments




Tuesday, December 27, 2005Trade of the Day - BOOM
Click on Chart for larger view.
Blue arrows represent buy orders, red arrows represent sell orders and the black arrow represents a missed buy order.
BOOM was flagged in the pre-market as a possible momentum trade.
How and Why was the trade executed?

Boom was trading up in the pre-market. A review of the daily chart showed that if the stock gapped higher, it could make a run for the recent highs set in early and mid December. These two highs were marked on the chart (blue lines) as targets.
Minutes before the open a buy stop order was placed ($31.30) 5 cents above the pre-market high. As the trade got underway, a stop was placed 5 cents below the 10 period EMA on the 5 minute chart. The stop was moved up as the EMA moved up.
The stock consolidated briefly at the first target marked by the most recent daily high and proceeded to make a run for the all time high. The entire position was sold when the this second target was attained ($32.20) because the market as whole (NASDAQ) felt weak at this point.
As the price moved back towards the first target in an orderly fashion, a buy order was placed at $31.80. As this second trade got underway, a tight stop was placed in order to avoid too much give back from the first trade. The trade was eventually stopped out at $32.50.
After retracing all of the morning's open market gains, the stock could have been repurchased in the area marked by the black arrow for a 50% retracement of the morning play.
The first trade netted 0.90 (before commissions) and the second trade netted 0.70.
It is important to determine and flag the target areas before the trade is executed. Always expect some consolidation when price moves into the target areas. If the price activity becomes sloppy in the consolidation area, tighten the stop in order to avoid giving too much profit back.





[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 12/27/2005 03:44:00 PM 0 comments




BOOM Tested all time High in Early Action
BCRX also getting close to all time highs

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 12/27/2005 09:50:00 AM 0 comments




Momentum

BOOM is trading up in pre-market. This name has a nice daily chart and could be ready to spring again soon.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 12/27/2005 09:19:00 AM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture
Head and Soulders Top followed by a doji morning star at the critical 2219 support level. Which reversal pattern will prevail?

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 12/27/2005 09:06:00 AM 0 comments




Pre-market Action - Top trade Counts
NEOL - far away the highest trade count, up 44% from the close, STAA, TASR, NMGC, RACK (Cramer), plus the usual suspects, AAPL, SNDK, SIRI on strong northeast Xmas sales, BBBY upgrade, AMZN best Xmas ever.

MEDI, PETS

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 12/27/2005 08:46:00 AM 0 comments




Friday, December 23, 2005RIMM - Gap on Earnings


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 12/23/2005 07:55:00 AM 0 comments




Thursday, December 22, 2005

Trade of the Day

GRMN
closed near the high of the day yesterday displaying late day strength despite a weak afternoon market.

Setup - Buy Stop 5 cents above yesterday's high around $63.30. Initial target was set at $64.00 with a second target at $67.00. These targets match up with previous congestion areas on the daily chart over the last three months.

Blue arrows are my entry points and the red arrows are exit points.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 12/22/2005 02:51:00 PM 0 comments





Pre-market Action - Top Trade Counts

Bullish: BCRX very active, RIMM, RHAT, SFCC, TIBX

Bearish: NVAX, BBBY

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 12/22/2005 09:04:00 AM 0 comments




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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 15:50 | 显示全部楼层



March 20, 2009
Don’t Deny Dollar DevaluationDollar Rally Crumbles as Fed Ramps Up Printing Press
“The trade-weighted Dollar Index, which tracks the currency’s performance against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona, tumbled 2.7 percent to 84.595, its biggest one-day drop since 1971. That pushed its decline to 5.6 percent since reaching 89.62 on March 4, the highest in almost four years.”
Fans of the Sequential will note that it exactly caught the high on the daily… I don’t know a currency trader who doesn’t watch Sequential counts, so maybe there’s some self-reinforcement there (self-fulfillment? what word am I groping for?).
You could argue (I would anyway) that the huge rally in the DXY from the 70’s last year was one big countertrend move and the massive secular downtrend in the dollar is very much intact. The USD is doomed (I recommend shifting as many of your assets into CNY as you can).

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March 19, 2009
Trading Ideas Worth the Money (Free!)Every day that I can find one, I post a free trading idea to Twitter. (Today I found a short idea in Martin Marietta, MLM.) I recommend you follow me there to check out these priceless (ha!) set-ups. What do you have to lose? Here’s how a recent countertrend long in IDXX is working out:

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March 18, 2009
Amex Delinquency RatesMacro Man mentioned credit card delinquency rates today so I thought I’d see how much historical data I could look at… and the answer is not a lot. Nevertheless you can see that the delinquency rate (31+days) for Amex has more than doubled off the December 2005 credit bubble low. No matter, retail continues to rally.
(Sorry, posting will be a bit light since the workload at my day job has gotten very heavy, presumably right before they kick me out the door.)

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March 14, 2009
Retail Looking Past the Gloom?Subscribers have been alerted to several changes in the core portfolio; one of them is a five-month old short whose reversal may have major implications for a much-hated sector and, by extension, the broad market. (If you’re one of the many recent subscribers and haven’t received this week’s letter yet, please email me.)
You won’t find anyone writing about it, but the Retail sector has been remarkably strong (with my subscribers already long, obviously). Could the market be looking beyond the double digit unemployment rates (California at 10.1% is just one) that have been filling the news?
If you’d like to subscribe, the cost is $100 for March 2009 to December 2009 (or $20 month-to-month)… email me now and I’ll send you the Paypal link.

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March 13, 2009
TGIF (XXXV)



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Book Report — Week Ending March 13, 2009The Kinkster is not everyone’s cup of Jameson’s. There’s no story here, but if you enjoy 200 pages of wise-cracking and drug-addled digressions, then check it out. I can only take Kinky in small doses, so it’s a good book to keep in the dumper for those times when I’m taking a Nixon and want a quick laugh.

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A Select Group of Qualified ProfessionalsI finally completed the Bloomberg Product Certifications in Equity and Fixed Income. The “diploma” reads:
As a registered Bloomberg user, you are now part of a select group of professionals qualified in the core competencies of the Bloomberg Professional service. Congratulations.
The truth is I probably know about one-tenth of one percent of what one can do with the extremely powerful Bloomberg terminal, but still it’s nice to be included in a “select group of (tens of thousands of?) professionals.” I will tack these certificates to the wall beside my two other certificates of dubious value: an MBA and a CPA.

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How to Lose 65% in Four DaysHere’s a 30-minute chart of FAZ for those who are thinking about trading triple-leveraged ETFs. Figure that last Friday somebody thought enough is enough, the financials are all soon to be dead and buried and it’s time to get long a financial bear fund, and why not get long FAZ since it’s leveraged. Oops.

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March 12, 2009
Our Shareholders Are Pleased!!Prem Watsa’s latest letter to shareholders contains seventeen exclamation points. Count ‘em !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! He has a lot to be pleased about given his outstanding results.
Some selected excerpts:
“We had to endure years of pain before harvesting the gains in 2007 and 2008.”

“… after many years of caution, we were perfectly positioned with a cash and government bond position of approximately 75% of our investment portfolio, our stock positions fully hedged, and our large holdings of credit default swaps. The total return (including unrealized gains) in our investment portfolios, including our CDS position and hedges, was 16.4%.”

“In November of 2008, after the stock markets had dropped 50% from their highs, we decided to remove the equity hedges on our portfolio investments. Also, as the yield on long (30-year) U.S. Treasuries began to drop below 3%, we sold almost all our U.S. Treasuries…. Both the equity hedges and the U.S. Treasuries have done an outstanding job in protecting our capital. Our U.S. Treasury bond position was to a large extent replaced by $4.1 billion in U.S. state, municipal and other tax-exempt bonds (of which $3.6 billion carry a Berkshire Hathaway guarantee) with an average yield (at purchase) of approximately 5.79% per annum. During the fourth quarter of 2008, we also increased our cash and short term investments by $752 million and invested an additional $2.3 billion in common stocks.”

“For the first time in more than a decade, we are very excited about the long term prospects of our common stock investments and believe that these investments have been purchased at prices well below their intrinsic values. This, of course, does not mean stock prices cannot go lower! Mark-to-market gains or losses on these investments will make our book value more volatile, but in the next five years, these investments should be a major reason for our success.”

“We have come a long way in the past 23 years, from $12 million in revenue and $8 million in shareholders’ equity in 1985 to $8 billion in revenue and approximately $5 billion in shareholders’ equity in 2008. Over that time period, book value per share has increased more than 180 times and our stock price 120 times.”
(via controlledgreed.com)
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Short Brazil for a TradeToday’s free trading idea posted to Twitter is a short play on Brazil. I need 130 more followers to gain that coveted inch.
The weekly trend in EWZ is down so this short idea is “with the trend.” Subscribers to my old Box Ideas are familiar with these set-ups, but new readers might want to look over the old User Guide.

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Recent Posts
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  • C. Maoxian: @craigk: Thanks for the link.
  • Gord: Nice. Lower than I expected.
  • craigk: Delinquency data 1980 - '06
  • C. Maoxian: @Drum: Spreads widen or narrow, right? I'm not at my machine but I'll take a look at that spread over the...
  • DrumMania: US will not default---the CDS spread has just jumped.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 15:51 | 显示全部楼层
March 11, 2009
You Will Never Catch the LowGrantham Urges Shift to Stocks Before ‘Rigor Mortis’
“Grantham told investors to make the shift from cash to stocks in a ‘few large steps’ instead of all at once. GMO started reinvesting in stocks in October, and has a schedule for more moves based on future market declines.”
Save your worries for people who try to swing trade triple-levered ETFs like FAZ.

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March 10, 2009
Trading Idea on ICEEvery day I try to post one free trading idea to Twitter. I am doing this in a shameless attempt to gain followers since I’ve heard that a nerd’s penis grows one inch for every thousand followers he gathers.
Today’s idea is in Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). The weekly trend is down so this short idea is “with the trend.” Subscribers to my old Box Ideas are familiar with these set-ups, but new readers might want to look over the old User Guide.

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March 9, 2009
The Bank, Bloodied and BruisedAsian Stocks Decline on Mounting Capital Concern; HSBC Slumps
“HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s biggest bank, plunged 24 percent to the lowest in almost 14 years on concern it may write down more bad loans at its U.S. business … HSBC nearly doubled its drop in the last 10 minutes of trading, losing 24 percent to close at HK$33, the lowest since May 1995.”
Boy was that an ugly close in The Bank and markets everywhere are really rattled. Looks like we’ll get to S&P 660 pretty soon.

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Bounce in Baltic Gives Bulls HopeAfter China announced its stimulus package last November, I wondered whether the stock market here had seen its low. A few weeks later the Baltic Dry Index dropped to a fresh low which disturbed me, but since then it has shot back up, more than tripling the December level of 663. Is this something to give the gravely wounded bulls some hope?

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March 7, 2009
Homebuilders Move to New LowWhen I first started to promote my ETF newsletter last November, I featured how the system had handled the Homebuilders ETF (XHB). This past week the XHB moved to a new low and the system is still short (continuously since May 2008). One of the benefits of paying me $10 a month is to know when XHB finally reverses, and where system stands on 49 other “core” holdings and nearly 80 “non-core” ETFs I follow.
Should you be long or short Oil, the Dollar, Yen, Euro, TIPS, Long-dated US Treasuries, China, Brazil, etc.? It’s purely based on my take of weekly price trends, delivered without hype, foolish jargon (”volatility clusters“), or any of the blather that usually pollutes investment newsletters.
If you’d like to subscribe, the cost is $100 for March 2009 to December 2009 (or $20 month-to-month)… email me now and I’ll send you the Paypal link.

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March 6, 2009
Book Report — Week Ending March 6, 2009You can’t find fault with Frederick Forsyth’s weaving of fact and fiction. But The Afghan seemed incredibly far-fetched, even silly, in places. Nevertheless, it’s a fun read if you don’t think too hard. (I’m very good at not thinking too hard.)

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Repealing Glass-Steagall Led to Second DepressionCitigroup Falls Below $1 as Investor Faith Erodes
“Citigroup was created by the 1998 combination of Citicorp and Travelers Group Inc., which with a value of $85 billion was the largest merger in history at the time. The transaction helped persuade the U.S. government to repeal a Great Depression-era law, the Glass-Steagall Act, that prohibited banks that took consumer deposits from engaging in investment-banking activities.”
Repealing Glass-Steagall was a grave mistake, eh?

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March 5, 2009
Free Daily Trading Idea Posted to TwitterI’ve begun posting a free daily trading idea to my feed at Twitter. I suggest you join Twitter and “follow” me so that you won’t miss any of these ideas or my other valuable inanities. Yesterday I pointed out a countertrend long idea for LSTR. Here’s the chart:

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March 4, 2009
Why Can’t AIG Stiff CDS Buyers En Masse?Bernanke Says Insurer AIG Operated Like a Hedge Fund
“‘AIG exploited a huge gap in the regulatory system, there was no oversight of the financial- products division, this was a hedge fund basically that was attached to a large and stable insurance company.’ … The company ‘made huge numbers of irresponsible bets, took huge losses, there was no regulatory oversight because there was a gap in the system,’ Bernanke said. At the same time, officials ‘had no choice but to try and stabilize the system’ by aiding the firm.”
Why can’t AIG stiff all their counterparties on these CDS contracts? Are the people who say “oh, it’ll be another Lehman” just fear-mongering to protect their own interests? Is the $298 billion so concentrated with a small group of buyers that systemic risk truly exists?
Here’s a long-term look at AIG … up 47 times in less than 20 years and then wiped out in less than two years. As I teach my four-year-old, it’s hard to build something but easy to wreck it.

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March 3, 2009
Systemically Significant Failing InstitutionsAIG Gets More Aid After Record $61.7 Billion Loss
“Banks relied on AIG’s financial products unit to back about $298 billion of assets through derivative contracts at year-end … The new agreement deepens the U.S. commitment to saving AIG and may put more taxpayer funds at risk, with the Treasury and Federal Reserve saying that the cost of inaction ‘would be extremely high.’”
What isn’t a “systemically significant failing institution” these days? Fannie, Freddie, Citi, BofA, AIG… and the taxpayer is on the hook for all of them. Seems to me the cost of action may be even higher than the “extremely high” cost of inaction.

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 15:52 | 显示全部楼层
March 2, 2009
Competing with Government-Favored LendersLike everyone else, I’ve read Mr. Buffett’s 2008 Annual Letter to Shareholders. In the past I used to excerpt large sections of it, but from now on I encourage you to read it in its entirety. Here’s just one paragraph to whet your appetite:
“Funders that have access to any sort of government guarantee – banks with FDIC-insured deposits, large entities with commercial paper now backed by the Federal Reserve, and others who are using imaginative methods (or lobbying skills) to come under the government’s umbrella – have money costs that are minimal. Conversely, highly-rated companies, such as Berkshire, are experiencing borrowing costs that, in relation to Treasury rates, are at record levels. Moreover, funds are abundant for the government-guaranteed borrower but often scarce for others, no matter how creditworthy they may be.”
Moral hazard writ LARGE.
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February 28, 2009
ETF Newsletter in the Email (Paid Issue #4)Subscribers have been alerted to three trend changes in the core portfolio.
Way back last November when I started to promote my ETF newsletter, I featured the system’s take on the Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG). Here’s an updated chart below. I don’t include any leveraged ETFs in the core portfolio, but I do follow them since so many subscribers (now way more than a dozen) have asked me to do so.
If you’d like to subscribe, the cost is $100 for March 2009 to December 2009 (or $20 month-to-month)… email me now and I’ll send you the Paypal link.

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February 27, 2009
Improperly Playing Property PricesHere’s a chart which gives some perspective on the current crash in Hong Kong property stocks (a good proxy for the property market itself). I’m very familiar with the 1997-1998 crash since we moved to Hong Kong in late 1998 (when things were very bad) and stayed for two years (during which time things improved dramatically).
Our great regret from that time was that we didn’t buy an apartment the minute we arrived. We have the same regret for not buying an apartment the minute we arrived in Princeton (2000), Chicago (2002) or London (2004). If only we had ridden the global property bubble properly!
We finally bought a place in Beijing in the summer of 2005 and I expect in 2015 it will be exactly the price we paid for it (if not lower). :)
I’d love to hear stories from my savvy readers who got it right these past years — or at least played things better than this rube.

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February 26, 2009
Adverse AlternativeU.S. to Get Bank Ownership Stakes Only as Losses Rise
“The banks themselves will analyze system-wide losses under two economic scenarios, along with forecasts for internal resources to absorb the losses … Losses will be projected under two sets of projections. Under the ‘baseline,’ the U.S. economy will shrink 2 percent this year and expand 2.1 percent in 2010. The ‘alternative more adverse’ set of projections has gross domestic product dropping by 3.3 percent this year, with a 0.5 percent expansion in 2010.”
Tinkering with their models, projecting a dramatic and immediate rebound even in their ‘adverse’ scenario, minimizing the need for any additional capital… meanwhile back in reality:
“The median price dropped 15 percent from a year ago to a six-year low of $170,300. Distressed properties accounted for 45 percent of all sales … The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index of 20 metropolitan cities was down 18.5 percent in December from a year earlier … Home foreclosures were up 17.8 percent in January from a year earlier … A total of 274,399 properties got a default or auction notice or were seized by banks, the 10th straight month that foreclosures topped 250,000. ”
The lottery tickets in Bank of America are trading at a good clip.

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February 25, 2009
Zombie Bank Franchise ValueU.S. to Get Bank Ownership Stakes Only as Losses Rise
“‘I don’t see any reason to destroy the franchise value or to create the huge legal uncertainties of trying to formally nationalize a bank when it just isn’t necessary,’ Bernanke said at the Senate Banking Committee hearing … ‘we don’t need majority ownership to work with the banks’ … ‘The bank could convert the preferred to common to make sure that it has sufficient common equity, and only at that time, going forward, if those losses do occur, would the ownership implications become relevant.’”
Those losses will occur, Ben, and the ownership implications are relevant right now. But like any good bureaucrat anywhere, Bernanke-san is avoiding taking any action or assuming any responsibility.
Paradoxically, I see the Yen weakening to 103ish … count me as another very short-term dollar bull.

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February 24, 2009
Markets Not ManipulableThe gubmint tried to be tricky on Sunday night and goose the futures with the Citigroup “news,” but the market is having none of it. This is not how a superpower behaves. This is how someone acts who is weak and desperate and on the wrong side of a trade.

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February 23, 2009
Superficial Stock SelectionHere’s a sample page (基本面选股) from magazine in China called Weekly on Stocks. They print a price chart and a blurb from whatever brokerage house is recommending the stock. I could write a simple China-stock newsletter along these lines and probably find more than a dozen subscribers for it, but I don’t want to get in trouble with the authorities here.

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February 22, 2009
ETF Newsletter in the Email (Paid Issue #3)Subscribers have been alerted to two trend changes in the core portfolio.
There are now seven short positions in the core portfolio with gains over 50%, including Natural Gas (UNG), an open short for nearly seven months (see chart below).
If you’d like to subscribe, the cost is $100 for March 2009 to December 2009 (or $20 month-to-month)… email me now and I’ll send you the Paypal link.

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February 20, 2009
Trend Following in Slumdog MillionaireSlumdog Millionaire to Win the Oscar for Best Picture is currently 88.5 x 89. Trend followers who have been following this contract have been disappointed since there has been no weakness to exploit by getting long. I have not seen the movie yet, but Ugly saw it and liked it, and his taste in movies is generally good (with only one glaring exception I can think of).

Update: The prediction markets nailed it: ‘Slumdog’ rules Oscars with 8 prizes, best picture
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Book Report — Week Ending February 20, 2009After the hilarity of Willeford and the brilliant plotting of McClure, I found it hard to finish Ross Thomas’s Cast a Yellow Shadow (1967). It just seemed farfetched and kind of lame. From the back cover:
“McCorkle returns from Germany with a beautiful new wife and the intention of living quietly as a saloon keeper in one of Washington’s high-class neighborhoods. Candlelight dinners for two, a walk in the park on Sundays after reading the color comics. Then his old pal Padillo stumbles off a tramp steamer with a half-dozen knife wounds and just enough guts to keep moving … straight to McCorkle.
The dreams of a normal life dissolve when Fredl is kidnapped and held by officials of a South African nation who want Padillo to assassinate its prime minister.
Padillo points out that Fredl is a dead woman whenther he goes along or not — and sets off with Mac on a daring rescue scheme incorporating double agents, informers, and the cream of Washington’s underworld.”

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 15:56 | 显示全部楼层
February 20, 2009
Fidelity Ignores Chart, Adds More CitiFidelity More Than Doubled Citigroup Stake in Quarter
“Fidelity bought 104 million shares of Citigroup in the quarter ended Dec. 31, bringing its stake in the bank to 171 million shares, or 3.1 percent … Based on Citigroup’s average stock price of $10.91 in the fourth quarter, Fidelity’s additional shares have lost about $874 million.”
Doesn’t Fidelity have a “technical analysis” department? Or were they all fired around the same time that Ralph Acampora, Louise Yamada, and anyone else on Wall Street who could read a stock chart were given the boot?

Related: Reviewing XLF Buy and Sell Signals, January 14, 2009
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February 18, 2009
Rebuilding America’s Food CultureMichael Pollan Offers Food For Thought
“In this country eating well, eating healthy, freshly grown local food costs more than eating fast food … we have to make good food more accessible to more people … the reason that the cheapest calories in the supermarket are the least healthy calories — high fructose corn syrup and hydrogenated soy oil — is because those are the kinds of calories we subsidize.”
He’s right but changing that is a very tough political row to hoe. (Tom Vilsack is a fellow Hamiltonian, so maybe there’s hope.)
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S&P 500 Next Stop Around 660U.S. Stocks Slide to 3-Month Low on Recession Concern; GM Sinks
“The S&P 500 retreated 4.6 percent to 789.17, dropping below 800 for the first time since November … U.S. Treasury securities and gold advanced as investors sought protection against falling equity values … The S&P 500, the benchmark for American equities, tumbled more than 38 percent in 2008 for its worst year since 1937. The index had its lowest close of last year on Nov. 20 at 752.44, which was its lowest since April 1997. From that level it rebounded as much as 24 percent on Jan. 6.”
Here’s a quarterly chart of the S&P 500 going back to 1980. Now that the 50% retracement level has been thoroughly sliced and diced, a drop to the 660ish level wouldn’t surprise me.

Related: Arrived at Dow 7500, Next Stop 5900?, November 21, 2008
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Cat:   | Time: 9:38 am (utc+8) Comments (26)

February 14, 2009
Subscribers Stop Suffering in SilverA couple more longs reversed short this past week in my ETF Newsletter’s core portfolio, as this very sick market looks like a terminal case.
If you’d like to subscribe, the cost is $110 for February 2009 to December 2009 (or $20 month-to-month)… email me now and I’ll send you the Paypal link.
On a happy note, subscribers’ long positions in the precious metals have been doing fine, as long-lagging silver (SLV) finally comes to life. (See this earlier post for the position in gold (GLD).)

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February 13, 2009
TGIF (XXXIV)



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The Person SaidU.S. Housing Plan to Fund Interest-Rate Reductions
“The government will subsidize interest-rate reductions by working with the servicers that handle mortgages, the person said. That way, servicers can lower monthly payments for households without shortchanging investors.
The new plan, which isn’t final and could change, would be voluntary for lenders and investors, the person said. It is aimed at loan modifications that have a positive net present value, meaning that the cost of a foreclosure would be higher than that of adjusting the loan terms”
The person said this at 3 PM sharp, just a wee bit manipulative — I bet a lot of persons got their faces ripped off.

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Cat:   | Time: 8:03 pm (utc+8) Comments (12)


Book Report — Week Ending February 13, 2009More from Charles Willeford this week, The Black Mass of Brother Springer (1958). James Sallis explains in his introduction why the book was unfortunately titled Honey Gal:
“The Black Mass of Brother Springer was Willeford’s original title, one which Universal, more comfortable with titles on the order of Hitch-Hike Hussy, quickly rejected. The publisher also rejected Willeford’s tongue-in-cheek suggestion for an alternative title, Nigger Lover, bringing the book out as Honey Gal.”
The book is hilarious and perverse. Willeford had a uniquely cockeyed view of the world, which happens to be dead-on (if you see what I mean). Highly recommended.
Michael G.’s review on Amazon

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February 12, 2009
Print Money and Drive Assets to GoldRecession? No, It’s a D-process, and It Will Be Long
An excerpt from this interview with Ray Dalio:
Are you a fan of gold?
Yes.
Have you always been?
No. Gold is horrible sometimes and great other times. But like any other asset class, everybody always should have a piece of it in their portfolio … for now, a portfolio that is a mixture of Treasury bonds and gold is going to be a very good portfolio, because I imagine gold could go up a whole lot and Treasury bonds won’t go down a whole lot, at first.”
It’s easy to be bearish on paper currencies when you read headlines like this one: U.S. Lawmakers Agree on $789 Billion Stimulus Plan. My newsletter subscribers (email me for details on how to subscribe) are long both gold (GLD) and silver (SLV).

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February 11, 2009
Adapting Our Program As Conditions ChangeGeithner Says Bank-Rescue Plans May Reach $2 Trillion
“The main components of the Treasury’s package today are a joint public- and private-sector fund to buy as much as $1 trillion of illiquid assets and a $1 trillion program to supply new credit to consumers and businesses … Four months after the government’s bailout program was established, investors are demanding a 5.20 percentage-point premium over U.S. Treasuries to buy bonds sold by companies with investment-grade ratings, more than five times the level of two years ago. The rate on jumbo mortgages is 6.91 percent, almost 1 percentage point higher at than the start of 2007.”
They just keep making things worse and worse by not biting the bullet. The more time you take, Timmy, the bigger the problem gets.
As Soren put it on StockTwits today:
“The only thing worse than announcing a plan and then changing it after the money has been released is announcing you have no plan.”
UpsideTrader also put it well:
“The market needed shock and awe, and all it got was a wet firecracker.”

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February 10, 2009
Foolish Labor of LoveTime to Hang Up the Pajamas, by Daniel Lyons
“My first epiphany occurred on a day when more than 500,000 people hit my site—by far the biggest day I’d ever had—and through Google’s AdSense program I earned about a hundred bucks. Over the course of that entire month, in which my site was visited by 1.5 million people, I earned a whopping total of $1,039.81. While blogs can do many wonderful things, generating huge amounts of money isn’t one of them.”
Yes, indeed. You need a combination of enormous traffic and plentiful obnoxious ads to make even poverty-level wages. Blogging for a living is “another high-tech fairy tale,” as Lyons puts it, something only a fool could believe in.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 15:57 | 显示全部楼层
February 9, 2009
The Root of All Midnight BluesBlossom Dearie, 1926-2009, R.I.P.
Down With Love (2.5MB)
Down with love the flowers and rice and shoes
Down with love the root of all midnight blues
Down with things that give you that well known pain
Take that moon and wrap it in cellophane
Down with love, let’s liquidate all its friends
Moon and June and roses and rainbow’s ends
Down with songs that moan about night and day
Down with love yes take it away, away
Take it away, take it away
Give it back to the birds and bees and the Viennese
Down with eyes romantic and stupid
Down with sighs, down with cupid
Brother let’s stuff that dove
Down with love
Down with love the flowers and rice and shoes
Down with love the root of all midnight blues
Down with things that give you that well known pain
Take that moon and wrap it in cellophane
Down with love, let’s liquidate all its friends
Moon and June and roses and rainbow’s ends
Down with songs that moan about night and day
Down with love yes take it away, away
Take it away, take it away
Give it back to the birds and bees and the Viennese, please
Down with eyes romantic and stupid
Down with sighs, down with cupid
Brother let’s stuff that dove
Down with love, down with love
Blossom Dearie: Tiny Voice, Big Impact — Terry Gross interview with Blossom Dearie in 1998.
“I just slowed it [Surrey with a Fringe on Top] down to give the words more meaning. I did the same thing with Tea for Two, I slowed that way down, and Manhattan.”
Her version of Manhattan is so beautiful it’ll bring tears to your eyes.
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Cat:   | Time: 11:27 pm (utc+8) Comments (1)


A Series of Ill-timed BetsChina’s Blackstone Pain Is Good News for Treasuries
“China is the biggest foreign holder of Treasuries, owning $681.9 billion, or 12 percent of the U.S.’s outstanding marketable debt, according the Treasury Department. Japan is next, with $577.1 billion, followed by the U.K. at $360 billion … China’s holdings tripled since the end of 2004 … the U.S. will likely borrow a record $2.5 trillion this fiscal year ending Sept. 30, almost triple the $892 billion in notes and bonds sold in fiscal 2008.”
The Chinese should cut their losses … obviously they can’t sell any T-bonds but they surely can stop buying them and focus on make-work projects at home instead.
Here’s a chart of gold denominated in Japanese Yen — a different picture when your currency is strong instead of weak.

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Cat:   | Time: 10:26 am (utc+8) Comments (7)

February 7, 2009
ETF Newsletter in the Email (no longer free!)Subscribers have been alerted to three trend changes in the core portfolio, one of them a year-old short which has finally reversed. If you subscribed and haven’t received this week’s newsletter yet, please let me know!
If you’d like to subscribe, the cost is $110 for February 2009 to December 2009 (or $20 month-to-month)… email me now and I’ll send you the Paypal link.
You can see that the system’s entry into the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) last December was a good one. Freeloaders enjoyed that bit of advice, but only subscribers have access to my unique trend-following system from now on. Nyay, nyay, na, nyay, nyaaaa. :)

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Cat:   | Time: 2:43 pm (utc+8) Comments (6)

February 6, 2009
Book Report — Week Ending February 6, 2009James McClure was a great writer and I’ve read several of his “Kramer and Zondi” detective books (there are eight total). The Caterpillar Cop (1972) may be the best one I’ve read yet, but any one of them is highly recommended.
From the back cover:
“Faced with the mysterious and brutal death of a young Afrikaner boy, Detective Kramer and his Bantu assistant, Zondi, realize that they will have to cast aside all their fundamental assumptions about the society in which they live if they hope to crack their most difficult, and unforgettable, case yet.”

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Cat:   | Time: 6:56 pm (utc+8) Comments (0)


New Furniture (#1 in a series)We bought a new piece of furniture for our entryway. It’s made from Chinese Elm and is “Korean-style” (or so they say). The dimensions are 620 wide x 300 deep x 900 high (mm) and it cost US$300. I’m not sure if that’s a good price, but we like the look of it. What do you guys think?

(Had to get a picture of it before Toddler T rams it with his PlasmaCar.)
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Cat:   | Time: 11:56 am (utc+8) Comments (26)

February 5, 2009
Do Two Things WellFrom The Black Mass of Brother Springer by Charles Willeford:
“To achieve success in the United States a man must be able to do two things well. First, he must be able to think and speak on his feet with conviction, and secondly, he must be able to write a good letter.”
He wrote that in 1958 and I’d like to think that it’s still true today. Everyone should be able to think, speak, and write clearly — that should be the goal of education, right?
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Cat:   | Time: 10:31 am (utc+8) Comments (13)

February 4, 2009
$10 Trillion of Stranded DebtJeremy Grantham wrote a pretty good Quarterly Letter. Read it if you have the time. Here are some selected excerpts:
“Never underestimate the power of a dominant academic idea to choke off competing ideas, and never underestimate the unwillingness of academics to change their views in the face of evidence.”
“We have not lost our wealth, but just the illusion of wealth, with formidably negative effects on animal spirits.”
“… a lethally dangerous combination of asset bubbles, lax controls, pernicious incentives, and wickedly complicated instruments led to our current plight.”
“Given where we are today, there are only three ways to restore a balance between current private debt levels and our reduced, but much more realistic, asset values: we can bite the bullet and drastically write down debt; we can let the very long passage of time wear down debt levels as we save more and restore our consumer balance sheets; or we can inflate the heck out of our debt and reduce its real value.”
“… real wealth lies not in debt but in educated people, laws, work ethic, as well as in the quality and quantity of fixed assets and the effectiveness of the corporate organization. We are not proposing to destroy any of these assets. We have just tripped on make-believe assets and we now have to deal with the chronic deleveraging and bruised animal spirits. When we have dealt with this crisis, all of our assets will still be sitting around waiting to be fully used once again.”
Tripping on make-believe assets, very nicely said (though a bad trip). And some of “our” assets that are sitting around became “theirs.” See what happens when you bet the farm?
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Cat:   | Time: 3:12 pm (utc+8) Comments (2)


Particularly Good at Picking Bonds (or Noses?)Insurers’ Corporate-Bond Losses May Exceed Subprime
“‘None of the life insurers we studied appear to be doing a particularly good job’ of picking bonds backed by companies, said Eric Berg, an analyst at Barclays Plc.”
I had 1,200 people receiving my newsletter for free, and now I have a dozen paying subscribers — an admirable conversion rate in the Internet age! Seriously, my trend-following system has been very impressive of late, especially with the 7-10 Year T-Bond call in the beginning of January. Buying both Big Pharma and Health Care in recent weeks was also a good move. But it looks like $10 a month is too much to ask for this kind of advice. :)

Related: Some Bubble Characteristics, December 12, 2008
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Cat:   | Time: 10:06 am (utc+8) Comments (23)

February 3, 2009
Crush the National CurrencyRuble Falls to 11-Year Low as Speculators Push to Break Target
“Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said in a Jan. 25 interview that Russia had set itself apart from other countries by using reserves so as not to ‘crush the national currency overnight,’ avoiding a repeat of the crisis a decade ago when the ruble plunged as much as 29 percent in a day as the government defaulted on $40 billion of debt.”
Here’s the weekly chart of the Russian ruble. It’s lost over half its value in the past half year or so. 34.894 was the stop loss level for the weekly Sequential sell signal, and it blew through there, so I have no idea how low it could go. In any event, it’s a scary chart.

I have no connection to Russia, but I do enjoy watching their soccer teams FC Zenit St. Petersburg and FC Spartak Moskva, and plan to visit Moscow in late May.
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Cat:   | Time: 4:20 pm (utc+8) Comments (10)


The Longer The Piece The Fewer The ReadersInteresting bit from this interview with Michael Lewis (that I just got around to reading):
“… when I write a long magazine piece that gets attention I feel like it’s more widely read now than it was ten years ago, by a long way. In fact, it feels excessively well read. Twenty years ago I might get a couple of notes in the mail and I’d hear about it maybe at a dinner party. And that would be the end of it, and it would go away very quickly.
Ten years ago it would get passed around by email, and it would seem to have a life to me that would go on a little longer. Now the blogosphere picks it up and it becomes almost like a book: it lives for months. I’m getting responses to it for months.
And I don’t think the journalism has gotten any better. It’s just the environment you publish it in is more able to rapidly get it to the people who are or might be interested in it. They’re more likely to see it. So the demand side of things is not a problem. People really want to read this stuff. The question is how you monetize that.”
The power (and terrible weakness) of the permalink!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 15:58 | 显示全部楼层
February 9, 2009
The Root of All Midnight BluesBlossom Dearie, 1926-2009, R.I.P.
Down With Love (2.5MB)
Down with love the flowers and rice and shoes
Down with love the root of all midnight blues
Down with things that give you that well known pain
Take that moon and wrap it in cellophane
Down with love, let’s liquidate all its friends
Moon and June and roses and rainbow’s ends
Down with songs that moan about night and day
Down with love yes take it away, away
Take it away, take it away
Give it back to the birds and bees and the Viennese
Down with eyes romantic and stupid
Down with sighs, down with cupid
Brother let’s stuff that dove
Down with love
Down with love the flowers and rice and shoes
Down with love the root of all midnight blues
Down with things that give you that well known pain
Take that moon and wrap it in cellophane
Down with love, let’s liquidate all its friends
Moon and June and roses and rainbow’s ends
Down with songs that moan about night and day
Down with love yes take it away, away
Take it away, take it away
Give it back to the birds and bees and the Viennese, please
Down with eyes romantic and stupid
Down with sighs, down with cupid
Brother let’s stuff that dove
Down with love, down with love
— Terry Gross interview with Blossom Dearie in 1998.
“I just slowed it [Surrey with a Fringe on Top] down to give the words more meaning. I did the same thing with Tea for Two, I slowed that way down, and Manhattan.”
Her version of Manhattan is so beautiful it’ll bring tears to your eyes.
time saved
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Cat:   | Time: 11:27 pm (utc+8) Comments (1)


A Series of Ill-timed BetsChina’s Blackstone Pain Is Good News for Treasuries
“China is the biggest foreign holder of Treasuries, owning $681.9 billion, or 12 percent of the U.S.’s outstanding marketable debt, according the Treasury Department. Japan is next, with $577.1 billion, followed by the U.K. at $360 billion … China’s holdings tripled since the end of 2004 … the U.S. will likely borrow a record $2.5 trillion this fiscal year ending Sept. 30, almost triple the $892 billion in notes and bonds sold in fiscal 2008.”
The Chinese should cut their losses … obviously they can’t sell any T-bonds but they surely can stop buying them and focus on make-work projects at home instead.
Here’s a chart of gold denominated in Japanese Yen — a different picture when your currency is strong

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Cat:   | Time: 10:26 am (utc+8) Comments (7)

February 7, 2009
ETF Newsletter in the Email (no longer free!)Subscribers have been alerted to three trend changes in the core portfolio, one of them a year-old short which has finally reversed. If you subscribed and haven’t received this week’s newsletter yet, please let me know!
If you’d like to subscribe, the cost is $110 for February 2009 to December 2009 (or $20 month-to-monthYou can see that the system’s entry into the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) last December was a good one. Freeloaders enjoyed that bit of advice, but only subscribers have access to my unique trend-following system from now on. Nyay, nyay, na, nyay, nyaaaa. :)

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Cat:   | Time: 2:43 pm (utc+8) Comments (6)

February 6, 2009
Book Report — Week Ending February 6, 2009James McClure was a great writer and I’ve read several of his “Kramer and Zondi” detective books (there are eight total). The Caterpillar Cop (1972) may be the best one I’ve read yet, but highly recommended.
From the back cover:
“Faced with the mysterious and brutal death of a young Afrikaner boy, Detective Kramer and his Bantu assistant, Zondi, realize that they will have to cast aside all their fundamental assumptions about the society in which they live if they hope to crack their most difficult, and unforgettable, case yet.”

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Cat:  
| Time: 6:56 pm (utc+8) Comments (0)


New Furniture (#1 in a series)We bought a new piece of furniture for our entryway. It’s made from Chinese Elm and is “Korean-style” (or so they say). The dimensions are 620 wide x 300 deep x 900 high (mm) and it cost US$300. I’m not sure if that’s a good price, but we like the look of it. What do you guys think?

(Had to get a picture of it before Toddler T rams it with his
time saved
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Cat:   | Time: 11:56 am (utc+8) Comments (26)

February 5, 2009
Do Two Things WellFrom The Black Mass of Brother Springer by Charles Willeford:
“To achieve success in the United States a man must be able to do two things well. First, he must be able to think and speak on his feet with conviction, and secondly, he must be able to write a good letter.”
He wrote that in 1958 and I’d like to think that it’s still true today. Everyone should be able to think, speak, and write clearly — that should be the goal of education, right?
time saved
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Cat:  
| Time: 10:31 am (utc+8) Comments (13)

February 4, 2009
$10 Trillion of Stranded DebtJeremy Grantham wrote a pretty good Read it if you have the time. Here are some selected excerpts:
“Never underestimate the power of a dominant academic idea to choke off competing ideas, and never underestimate the unwillingness of academics to change their views in the face of evidence.”
“We have not lost our wealth, but just the illusion of wealth, with formidably negative effects on animal spirits.”
“… a lethally dangerous combination of asset bubbles, lax controls, pernicious incentives, and wickedly complicated instruments led to our current plight.”
“Given where we are today, there are only three ways to restore a balance between current private debt levels and our reduced, but much more realistic, asset values: we can bite the bullet and drastically write down debt; we can let the very long passage of time wear down debt levels as we save more and restore our consumer balance sheets; or we can inflate the heck out of our debt and reduce its real value.”
“… real wealth lies not in debt but in educated people, laws, work ethic, as well as in the quality and quantity of fixed assets and the effectiveness of the corporate organization. We are not proposing to destroy any of these assets. We have just tripped on make-believe assets and we now have to deal with the chronic deleveraging and bruised animal spirits. When we have dealt with this crisis, all of our assets will still be sitting around waiting to be fully used once again.”
Tripping on make-believe assets, very nicely said (though a bad trip). And some of “our” assets that are sitting around what happens when you bet the farm?
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Cat:  
| Time: 3:12 pm (utc+8) Comments (2)


Particularly Good at Picking Bonds (or Noses?)Insurers’ Corporate-Bond Losses May Exceed Subprime
“‘None of the life insurers we studied appear to be doing a particularly good job’ of picking bonds backed by companies, said Eric Berg, an analyst at Barclays Plc.”
I had 1,200 people receiving my newsletter for free, and now I have a dozen paying subscribers — an admirable conversion rate in the Internet age! Seriously, my trend-following system has been very impressive of late, especially with thein the beginning of January. Buying both Big Pharma and Health Care in recent weeks was also a it looks like $10 a month is too much to ask for this kind of advice. :)

Related:  December 12, 2008
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| Time: 10:06 am (utc+8) Comments (23)

February 3, 2009
Crush the National CurrencyRuble Falls to 11-Year Low as Speculators Push to Break Target
“Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said in a Jan. 25 interview that Russia had set itself apart from other countries by using reserves so as not to ‘crush the national currency overnight,’ avoiding a repeat of the crisis a decade ago when the ruble plunged as much as 29 percent in a day as the government defaulted on $40 billion of debt.”
Here’s the weekly chart of the Russian ruble. It’s lost over half its value in the past half year or so. 34.894 was the stop loss level for the weekly Sequential sell signal, and it blew through there, so I have no idea how low it could go. In any event, it’s a scary chart.

I have no connection to Russia, but I do enjoy watching their soccer teams FC Zenit St. Petersburg and FC Spartak Moskva, and plan to visit Moscow in late May.
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| Time: 4:20 pm (utc+8) Comments (10)


The Longer The Piece The Fewer The ReadersInteresting bit from this interview with Michael Lewis (that I just got around to reading):
“… when I write a long magazine piece that gets attention I feel like it’s more widely read now than it was ten years ago, by a long way. In fact, it feels excessively well read. Twenty years ago I might get a couple of notes in the mail and I’d hear about it maybe at a dinner party. And that would be the end of it, and it would go away very quickly.
Ten years ago it would get passed around by email, and it would seem to have a life to me that would go on a little longer. Now the blogosphere picks it up and it becomes almost like a book: it lives for months. I’m getting responses to it for months.
And I don’t think the journalism has gotten any better. It’s just the environment you publish it in is more able to rapidly get it to the people who are or might be interested in it. They’re more likely to see it. So the demand side of things is not a problem. People really want to read this stuff. The question is how you monetize that.”
The power (and terrible weakness) of the permalink!


| Time: 12:04 pm (utc+8) Comments (0)

« Previous PageNext Page »
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 15:59 | 显示全部楼层
February 2, 2009
Gold in RublesChubais Says Russia Must Base Policy on Worst Economic Scenario
“Russia’s current 2009 budget will break even if oil averages $70 a barrel and is based on a price of $95. Urals crude, the country’s chief export blend, slumped 69 percent from a July record to $43.72 a barrel.”
The long steady rise of the price of gold (denominated in rubles) has recently gone bananas as the ruble has collapsed. I’m planning to take the Trans-siberian Express to or from Moscow in May or June, but might cancel the idea if Russia gets too chaotic.

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January 31, 2009
ETF Newsletter in the Email (Final Freebie)The final freebie newsletter is in the email. As I explained in this post, you can subscribe month-to-month for $20 or lock in February through December 2009 for only $110. If you’re one of the 150 or so people who subscribed to my Box Ideas newsletter in the past, the cost is $55 for the 11 months. I’m donating a portion of every annual subscription to Wokai, a microfinance outfit in China, and every subscriber can follow along to see how we’re helping the rural poor here.
I use a unique trend-following system to generate my buy and sell signals. The system caught the reversal in Energies last August beautifully. That alone was a priceless call. In these posts, I detailed the system’s position in Gold, Financials, China, Bonds, Crude Oil and the Homebuilders. Obviously not every call is as brilliant as these, but at the very least subscribers should have some uncommon insight into the markets after reviewing the weekly changes to the core portfolio. And at $10 a month, it’s dirt cheap.
Email me today to see the final free newsletter, and thanks to the many of you who have already subscribed.

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Cat:   | Time: 1:01 pm (utc+8) Comments (13)

January 30, 2009
Book Report — Week Ending January 30, 2009I didn’t read The Paleolithic Prescription (1988) from cover to cover; I only read selected chapters. The book is 288 pages and, like so many books, would make an excellent 28 page booklet if you cut out the repetition and “filler” chapters.
An excerpt:
“Because we have so little routine exercise in our daily activities, consume foods so different from those available to preindustrial and earlier populations, and are exposed to the deleterious effects of alcohol and tobacco, we have finally estranged ourselves from the broad continuum of general mammalian experience. And with this estrangement has come an unprecedented rate of chronic illness.”
I buy that and am a big nut and berry guy. 100,000 generations of hunters and gatherers, 500 generations of agriculturalists, and we’re only about 10 generations into the industrial age … all our physiology and biochemistry are tuned to conditions of life that existed before 10,000 years ago, isn’t that obvious?

Related: Don’t Eat Anything That Doesn’t Rot
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Cat:   | Time: 1:03 pm (utc+8) Comments (13)

January 29, 2009
Long Bond Reversal Plain as DayWho doubts that the long T-bond has made a major reversal? My guess is that the high in TLT (the long T-bond ETF) of 123.15 reached last December will be in place for…ever. Always interested to hear differing opinions in the comments.

Related: 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund Reverses, January 4, 2009
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Cat:   | Time: 9:31 pm (utc+8) Comments (16)


Soberly Consider the FollowingHere’s a “risk warning” poster which is pasted to the wall of the local brokerage office here in Beijing. The six bullet points are:
  • Are you putting every cent you have in the stock market?!
  • Are you putting your retirement and health care funds in the stock market?! [China has no social security or public health care.]
  • Are you putting your child’s education funds in the stock market?! [Chinese value education above almost everything else, except food. :)]
  • Are you putting your housing funds or any borrowed money in the stock market?! [Don’t bet the rent or mortgage money.]
  • Are you blindly putting money in the stock market based on rumors?! [I love the Chinese term, mangmu, “blindly.”]
  • Do you know what kind of a brokerage house you use?! [This is a jab at competitors, I think.]
If anyone can offer better translation, I’ll be happy to amend the post.

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January 28, 2009
Animated Trading Lesson: Short FOSLMany people write to ask if I would consider offering the old Box Ideas newsletter again. There were two reasons I stopped doing it: 1) Being an old day trader, I wasn’t personally comfortable with the swing trading time frame (holding for several days to several weeks); and 2) it was a grind to put out a daily newsletter. But I know many subscribers got a lot of value out of it and were sorely disappointed when I quit doing it. I’ve kept an eye on the Box all along for myself even though I stopped sharing its results.
Anyway, the bad news is my high-paying cushy day job is at risk. The good news is if I get canned then I’ll have the time and energy to start doing the daily newsletter again. :)
I’m always happy to answer any questions in the comments.

Previous Animated Trading Lessons:
Short SRP (June 28, 2008)
Short UAUA (June 13, 2008)
Short KRE (June 3, 2008)
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January 27, 2009
Holy SkiffNot sure what to make of the timing of this New York magazine article on day trading: Stock-Surfing the Tsunami.
“The other thing Milman and his friends spend a lot of their time trading is a single financial instrument called UltraShort Financials ProShares, which has the ticker symbol SKF and which they refer to as “Skiff.” A so-called exchange-traded fund, or ETF, it isn’t technically a stock but a combination of options meant to make a doubled-down bet against financial stocks, improving dramatically in value as companies like Goldman Sachs get hammered. (Just as often as he buys Skiff, Milman sells the fund itself short, effectively betting that financials will go up. He just uses it like a football, running it up or down the field.) Because Skiff tracks a broad index of stocks, it helps Milman avoid getting stuck on any individual stock that might behave unpredictably relative to the rest of the market. It’s hugely popular with day traders right now because it exploits the wild contortions in bank stock prices. It also tracks closely to the S&P 500 Futures Index, which Milman follows as a kind of canary in the coal mine, a second-by-second impression of the market’s overall direction.”
They feature a rare winner of course … the thousands and thousands of guys who’ve lost it all go unmentioned.
Related: Ultra-emotional, Double Stress, 2x Moody
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January 24, 2009
25th Best Financial BlogI’d like to thank Douglas A. McIntyre and Ashley C. Allen for including Maoxian among Time.com’s Best 25 Financial Blogs. In the old days when the mainstream media mattered (smile), Maoxian was also showered with praise from biggies like Forbes and Barron’s. This latest honor reminds me of that great line John Huston grumbled in Chinatown: “Politicians, ugly buildings, whores, (and financial blogs) all get respectable if they last long enough.”
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ETF Newsletter for Paid Subscribers OnlyStarting in February, the ETF newsletter will be available to paid subscribers only. The cost will be $20 a month if you choose to pay month to month, or at an annual rate of $110 for February through December 2009. If you were a paid subscriber to my old Box Ideas Newsletter, the annual rate is $55 for February through December 2009. I’m going to donate a portion of every annual subscription to Wokai, a microfinance outfit in China.
This week I’m sending out the next to the last free edition of the newsletter, so check it out now if you haven’t already. There will be no free trials in future.
Anyway, back to the markets. Newsletter readers know that the system has like gold (GLD) since last September, but it’s been a losing position. Finally this week GLD went into the black, though our silver (SLV), also a long, is still struggling in the red. Trend following takes patience.

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January 23, 2009
Book Report — Week Ending January 23, 2009I’m a big Ross Thomas fan. I don’t know how many authors specialize in corruption / deal making / politics / dirty business / international intrigue, but Thomas must be one of the great writers in that genre. He wrote five books using the pen name Oliver Bleeck. From the back cover of Protocol for a Kidnapping (1971):
“The American ambassador in Belgrade is kidnapped, and professional troubleshooter Philip St. Ives is immediately entangled in a web of ruthless Eastern European power politics. St. Ives is drawn into a swirl of intrigue as he contends with a Broadway actor, a thirty-year-old millionaire, an imprisoned poet’s breathtakingly beautiful daughter, and a sexy CIA agent.”
I’m writing these posts in the hope that someone shares my taste in books and can recommend similar authors to the ones I already read.

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-21 16:00 | 显示全部楼层
January 22, 2009
Failure’s Really No Success At AllBarclays Falls Seventh Day on Nationalization Concern
“‘There’s some disquiet as to the fact that their writedown procedure is not the same as other banks that you would have thought are exposed to the same risks,’ said Dave Bradbury, who helps manage $6 billion at Canada Life Ltd. in London.”
Some disquiet … I chuckled. Barclays has dropped as much as 75% over the last eight sessions. Candlechart fans will recognize that the last candlestick is a hammer (or what one of my old bar chart buddies calls a “spring bar”), which may mark some kind of low. Who knows? Has John Paulson covered his shorts yet?

(Bonus points to those who recognized the post title is taken from Dylan’s great song, Love Minus Zero)
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January 21, 2009
Custody Bank Management Should Be Taken Into CustodyState Street Plunges as Bond Losses Threaten Capital
“Logue said in the statement today there had been no defaults among the securities in the company’s $78.8 billion bond holdings or the $23.9 billion in conduits.”
Right, no defaults, just massive unrealized losses.

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Cat:   | Time: 11:26 am (utc+8) Comments (2)

January 20, 2009
Banking Creeps Deserve NationalizationRBS Will Be First Guinea Pig for ‘Creeping Nationalization’
“In exchange for government guarantees on losses from toxic debt, the bank will have to sign a binding agreement with the Treasury on how much it will lend and on what terms. Auditors will move in to check the bank is following the government directive.
‘We’ll be one of the first guinea pigs,’ RBS Chief Executive Officer Stephen Hester told reporters on a conference call yesterday.”
Bankers who lose 28 billion pounds in a year should be caged and fed only pellets for the rest of their natural lives, don’t you agree? Add that term to the binding agreement.

Related: Paulson Actively Shorting Shite
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January 19, 2009
Feedburner’s Link Splicer for Delicious is DeadOnce upon a time Feedburner had a really nice feature called “Link Splicer” which easily added your delicious links to your RSS feed. In the middle of December it mysteriously stopped working, and is still broken over a month later. What’s worse is that when I try to activate the Link Splicer now, it says it doesn’t recognize my delicious username (see screenshot below).
Is anyone else having this problem? And does anyone know how this can be fixed? Thanks.

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January 17, 2009
Get Gloomier: Trannies Break DownThe transport ETF I follow (IYT) broke to a new multi-year relative low this past week. If you’re a Dow Theorist, this ugliness bodes very ill for the broad market. It was painful to go over the ETF signals since so many recent buys (which made me hopeful) reversed back to sells.
If you want to review a lot of nasty whipsaw losses and see what changes happened last week, just email me to join the ETF newsletter mailing llist.

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January 16, 2009
TGIF (XXXIII)



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January 15, 2009
Book Report — Week Ending January 16, 2009New feature here at maoxian.com … I’ll report on the books I’ve just finished reading. I read about one book a week so it’ll probably be a once-a-week post.
Charles Willeford is one of my favorite writers. He wrote under the pseudonym, W. Franklin Sanders… I don’t know how many books. I’m not sure when Whip Hand was written, probably the early 1950s? [Wrong, it was 1961, see link below.] I bought a reprinted version from Blackmask (an imprint of Disruptive Publishing). It’s very cheaply done, with multiple typos and crummy formatting, and I think I paid $12 (!) for it, but I’m a sucker for Willeford.



The print is too small to read in that scan, but the original cover of the Gold Medal Book read “Lash by bloody lash, the she-devil from Dallas would get her revenge” :)
Related: One of the Great Ones, by Jesse Sublett
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January 14, 2009
Reviewing XLF Buy and Sell SignalsAs Citigroup (C) goes goodnight (so much for never sleeping!), I thought it would be useful to post my system’s moves in the Financial SPDR (XLF) over the last couple years. The sale back in June 2007 was a good one, but there were two unfortunate whipsaw losses on the long side in 2008. The last sale was above $18 and it hasn’t reversed back up yet. No trend following system is perfect, but I’m pretty happy with what I’ve come up with here.
I’m finally getting my act together and have figured out both the core portfolio (around 65 ETFs) and the pricing for the newsletter, but until I officially announce the plan, the ETF newsletter will be free, so email me today if you’d like to join the mailing list.

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January 11, 2009
List of Liquid Leveraged ETFsHere are all the 2x and 3x leveraged ETFs that have a three month average daily volume of at least 500,000 shares:
Ticker ~ Last Trade ~ Fund Name ~ Daily Volume (3 month average)
BGU ~ 35.37 ~ Direxion Large Cap Bull 3X Shares ~ 6,694,620
BGZ ~ 58.93 ~ Direxion Large Cap Bear 3X Shares ~ 3,419,500
SSO ~ 25.67 ~ Ultra S&P500 ProShares ~ 87,799,900
SDS ~ 71.95 ~ UltraShort S&P500 ProShares ~ 56,465,900
DDM ~ 30.74 ~ Ultra Dow30 ProShares ~ 19,627,800
DXD ~ 55.00 ~ UltraShort Dow30 ProShares ~ 14,296,500
MVV ~ 24.45 ~ Ultra MidCap400 ProShares ~ 1,486,050
MZZ ~ 58.82 ~ UltraShort MidCap400 ProShares ~ 1,152,700
TNA ~ 31.50 ~ Direxion Small Cap Bull 3X Shares ~ 5,726,540
TZA ~ 51.25 ~ Direxion Small Cap Bear 3X Shares ~ 2,372,190
UWM ~ 18.88 ~ Ultra Russell2000 ProShares ~ 6,771,990
TWM ~ 65.88 ~ UltraShort Russell2000 ProShares ~ 7,357,440
QLD ~ 27.52 ~ Ultra QQQ ProShares ~ 42,563,100
QID ~ 55.29 ~ UltraShort QQQ ProShares ~ 35,581,600
UYM ~ 15.00 ~ Ultra Basic Materials ProShares ~ 8,571,770
SMN ~ 35.52 ~ UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares ~ 3,655,880
ERX ~ 39.57 ~ Direxion Energy Bull 3X Shares ~ 1,300,620
ERY ~ 35.32 ~ Direxion Energy Bear 3X Shares ~ 650,900
UYG ~ 5.19 ~ Ultra Financials ProShares ~ 128,241,000
SKF ~ 118.46 ~ UltraShort Financials ProShares ~ 22,842,700
FAS ~ 20.47 ~ Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares ~ 7,015,540
FAZ ~ 41.65 ~ Direxion Financial Bear 3X Shares ~ 3,268,320
URE ~ 5.34 ~ Ultra Real Estate ProShares ~ 11,683,400
SRS ~ 58.36 ~ UltraShort Real Estate ProShares ~ 10,848,400
DGP ~ 17.13 ~ PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN ~ 1,926,780
DZZ ~ 26.26 ~ PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN ~ 616,314
DIG ~ 29.52 ~ Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares ~ 21,716,800
DUG ~ 24.16 ~ UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares ~ 19,399,000
DXO ~ 2.98 ~ PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Long ETN ~ 13,876,000
UCO ~ 12.95 ~ Ultra DJ-AIG Crude Oil ProShares ~ 1,309,540
EEV ~ 51.77 ~ UltraShort MSCI Emerging Mrkts ProShares ~ 3,903,820
FXP ~ 37.75 ~ UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShare ~ 3,018,600
If you daytrade, there’s little reason to watch anything besides these 30-some ETFs.
Related: The Trouble with Daily Leveraged Compounding
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January 10, 2009
ETF Newsletter in the Email (Still Free!)The system is selling China (FXI) this coming week and my friends in India can guess what it thinks of their market post-Satyam*. The chart below shows that trend following can be both profitable and perilous, but most of all, it requires patience.
Until I get my act together, the ETF newsletter will be free, so email me today if you’d like to join the mailing list.

* Satyam means “truth” in Sanskrit. :-)
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