一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Monday, May 01, 2006Trade of Day - NVDA and RIMM
Just prior to the market open I noticed that NVDA was testing its recent trading range high in the pre-market. I set a buy stop order just above the pre-market high and was filled on the open. I exited 50% of the position on the release of the ISM and construction data as the market started to pull back. I exited the balance of the position shortly after 3:00, again on market weakness.

RIMM was a watch list stock from last night identified as a bear flag pattern and potential short. Early in the session it was up so I was surprised to hear my alert triggered shortly after 11:00 EST. I shorted RIMM after a two bar consolidation on the 5 minute chart and shortly thereafter, Briefing.com published the news of the Visto patent infringement suit. I covered 50% after a 1 pt. gain and covered the balance after an additional 1.7 pt. gain.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/01/2006 04:10:00 PM 4 comments




In Play
Long NVDA on a break of the pre-market high. Sold 50 % following release of ISM and construction data. Moved my stop up to $29.59 on balance.

Session does not look too promising so far.

AAPL testing its neckline in choppy trade.

Update 11:46 EST - Short RIMM at $76.25. Covered 50% of position after a 1 point gain.

Update 12:50 - Covered balance of RIMM at $73.53. This will no doubt be the trade of day because today is yet another day where good setups are hard to find. So Thank you Visto for making the RIMM short come into play on a day that started out looking pretty bleak.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/01/2006 10:34:00 AM 0 comments




Market Outlook for May
Mike Ashbaugh is calling for a fifth straight month of new highs based on the current technicals.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/01/2006 08:08:00 AM 0 comments




Sunday, April 30, 2006Watch List - Short Setup - ELOS, RIMM
ELOS is coming into notable support but the oscillators and indicators are all so weak, that a violation is very likely.


RIMM is forming a bearish flag as price has been sandwiched between the 50MA and the trendline for two weeks.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/30/2006 11:03:00 PM 0 comments




$SOX - Symetrical Triangle

Click on chart for larger view and notes.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/30/2006 10:47:00 PM 0 comments




Watch List - ADBE, ENER, BRCM

ADBE

ADBE is consolidating its recent gains near the top of its range and could continue upwards anytime.

ENER

After forming a nice base and breaking out at $50.00 two weeks ago, ENER has come back to retest the breakout point. It now looks well positioned to continue its uptrend. A view of the 15 minute chart below. shows positive divergence of the MACD.

BRCM

After a deep pullback BRCM is oversold and looks ready to bounce. We've had two successive higher lows and a look at the 60 minute view below shows that we have positive divergence of the MACD. Buy on a break of $42.00. Aggressive buyers can buy a break of the downward sloping trendline.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/30/2006 08:10:00 PM 0 comments




AAPL - Bullish Inverted H&S Pattern

I first wrote a post on this developing pattern on April 9th when we had the left shoulder and head formation. It took three weeks, but as you can see from the chart above, we now have our right shoulder in place and the inverted H&S pattern is really taking shape.

Here is a 15 min. view of the last three sessions. Notice that in this latest rally, AAPL has observed the rising 50 period MA as support on a closing basis, even during the last two bearish Nasdaq opening gaps.

I expect a bit of consolidation before the neckline break, but I won't be taking my eye off AAPL as it may surprise us with more momentum very soon.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/30/2006 05:34:00 PM 0 comments




Saturday, April 29, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture


Another big gap down on the open, that's two in a row. This one due in large part to MSFT. Because of the size of its market cap, it weighs heavily on the Nasdaq. You may have wondered why the Nasdaq was showing a loss of almost 25 points on the open, but many of your watchlist stocks were in the green. So for the day, we carved out a doji with a long upper shadow. The Nasdaq shed 22 points on high volume. The worst performing sector was software. The damage to other weak sectors was relatively contained. The biggest loser in the NDX was MSFT with a loss of 11.4% on total volume of 0.6 billion shares. That's about 23% of the total Nasdaq volume for the day. I heard on CNBC tonight that MSFT closed at a 6 year low today. A quick look at the weekly chart, shows that it didn't even take out last year's low. I guess the person who put that segment together doesn't know how to read a stock chart. Looking at the $NAMO above, we are neutral with respect to overbought/oversold.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/29/2006 01:00:00 AM 0 comments




Friday, April 28, 2006Trade of the Day - AAPL
I bought AAPL on a break of yesterday's resistance. I sold 50% on the first signs of weakness and I was stopped out on the balance. Only a couple of trades today. Because of the general market malaise, good setups were hard to find. Friday afternoon doldrums sums it up pretty well.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/28/2006 03:56:00 PM 6 comments




In Play
Long AAPL - 50% profit booked
Long SYMC - stopped out (scratch)

Update 12:43 EST - stopped out on balance of AAPL position

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/28/2006 10:37:00 AM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Thursday, April 27, 2006Watch List - CMED, TZOO, MCHP, MXIM, LRCX, MU
CMED has pulled backed to a solid area of support and may bounce from here.

I tried to short TZOO and it's no surprise that no shares were available. So we have to take every opportunity to long this momentum play when the perfect setup comes along. I noticed we closed on a pivot point so I'll be watching to see if it wants to bounce back up from here. If not, we'll keep it on the radar until it does.

MCHP has had three days of high volume back and forth and could breakout anytime.

I can't decide if MXIM is a short or if it capitulated today. We'll soon find out.

I must have been looking at the wrong scan, because I missed this LRCX breakout. Let's see if it tests the breakout point.

Another one I missed. The same goes for MU as LRCX.

Along with MSFT several tech names are trading down in AH including DRIV. They issued downside guidance tonight so it could be a short tomorrow.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/27/2006 09:10:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture
After a firmly negative start, the markets bounced back when BB took center stage. When Ben talks about ending the rate hikes, we rally. The NAZ carved out a bullish engulfing pattern on very strong volume. The Nasdaq outperformed the INDU 2 to 1 on a percentage increase. The SOX, biotechs and software performed well while networking was weak. The NDX heatmap has a lot more green on it for a change. The winners today were CELG, XLNX, and APOL (CKFR 4th) and the losers were JOYG, ESRX, and XMSR. We closed weak and the MSFT miss will likely give us a weak open. NDX futures are currently down and the Nikkei is down over 100 points. Stay tuned.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/27/2006 07:41:00 PM 0 comments




ADBE - Started out Nicely, But
This one didn't work because the market decided to take a dive into the close. But the entry was perfect and running a profit from the get go. That is one of my measures of a perfect trade, you're in the green within less than 5 minutes.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/27/2006 04:05:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - CKFR
Nice snap back for CKFR after yesterday's big fall. I entered the position on a bullish flag breakout pattern. The rest is self-explanatory if you click on the chart for a larger view.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/27/2006 03:59:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Other than a few quick scalps, no trades so far. I'm waiting for the market to settle to see if I can find some quality setups.

Update 12:50 EST - CKFR - Bullish Flag Breakout - This one is outperforming my original target and hasn't shown any sign of weakness so far.

Update 1:05 - Sold 50% CKFR at $55.00 (+2 point profit) Stop set at $54.35.

Update 1:25 - ADBE made a solid break this morning and is consolidating the move in an orderly fashion on the 15 min. view. I'm staking it out for a possible Fibonacci retracement off on this morning's low and hoping for nice pullback entry. Also looking at BRCM, but that one is very choppy.

Update 2:15 - Tightening my stop on CKFR up to $54.57. It's made a base and the 10 period EMA is now above $54.60 on 15 min.

Update 2:45 - ADBE long triggered just above $39.35 on a fairly flat consolidation base.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/27/2006 10:33:00 AM 0 comments




Wednesday, April 26, 2006Watch List - MRVL, BRCM, AMSG, CTXS, AMD, GM, ILSE, TASR
MRVL looks like a H&S top.

What Up BRCM?????? I thought the earnings beat would propel BRCM higher, not lower. Let's see if the gap closure will hold as support.

Good call Brian. Did you trade AMSG today?

CTXS may have found its support level at $40.00 and could be ready to challenge its pivot point at $41.00.

This is a 60 Minute view of AMD. We had a nice little rally going over the past few days and this morning it pulled back to the trendline. Let's see if we can pick up a little traction from this support level.

You don't often see a stock like GM on this blog. GM rallied today on a Merrill upgrade. Now let's see if it can break resistance.

ILSE reports tomorrow morning so we'll know before the open if this is going or not.

Some of the old momentum stocks of yester-year are back in play. We had TZOO last week, now TASR looks ready to pop.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/26/2006 10:43:00 PM 4 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture
Another fairly flat day with the end result a mere 3 points to the upside. The Nasdaq carved out a doji (indecision) on slightly lower volume. Basically, we haven't moved all week. Sector strength was in networking and disk drive, whereas, the SOX and biotechs were weak. The NDX winners were TLAB, FISV and MNST and the losers CHRW, GILD, and BRCM (twice in three days for BRCM).

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/26/2006 08:18:00 PM 0 comments




Buying Pullbacks - FLSH, JCOM
After a deep pullback like FLSH, I need confirmation before taking a long position. I waited until price took out the high of the three consolidation doji bars before going long. Price moved up slowly but orderly all the way back to resistance which was my initial target. I took a 50% profit and was stopped out on the balance just under the pink line.

This JCOM trade came to me via the TI scanner. It showed up on the scan in the morning, but I didn't want to chase it, so I waited for a pullback. It had a nice shallow pullback then traded sideways for an hour. It popped out of its narrow trading range on a volume spike and I hit the ask because I didn't want to give it a second chance to runaway from me. It paid off nicely. On these types of consolidations, I try not to buy until the break of the upper blue line, because these can just as easily fade. However, you have to be very fast when the break occurs. Sometimes a buy stop order helps.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/26/2006 05:40:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Wednesday, April 26, 2006Trade of the Day - AAPL
Here is an example of a trade where I was comfortable taking a position before the actual market open. As per last night's watch list, AAPL looked like a good reversal candidate after yesterday's NR daily bar. I took a position in AAPL just minutes before the open as price started to accelerate quickly to test the pre-market high set earlier in the morning and which also matched up well with yesterday's highs. I exited 50% of the position with a +1.00 gain as the Q's ran into resistance and started to back away. The balance was sold just below $68.00 when it appeared that this level could not be taken out.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/26/2006 05:15:00 PM 2 comments




In Play
Long AAPL as per the watchlist - 50% profit just locked in as market hit resistance at 10:30.

Long MNST on a break of the pre-market high 50% profit locked in.

Also watching PSUN for a tradable pullback - This is a TI scan breakout name.

Update 11:25 EST- the market is coming in fast so I've closed both MNST and AAPL with nice profits.

Update 2:09 EST - A couple of pullback entries on stocks from the 3 day breakout T_I scan have done well this afternoon - FLSH and JCOM. I'll post the charts later this evening.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/26/2006 10:42:00 AM 0 comments




Tuesday, April 25, 2006Watch List
I noticed a lot of failed breakouts today, which is never a good sign. There's a general lack of good setups tonight so I've decided to focus on stocks that made higher lows either NR or reversal type bars - TEK, GRMN, and AAPL.






Plus the usual consolidation/continuation setups include AMD, SWIR, DRIV (yes again) and JBHT.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/25/2006 09:55:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture


Let's call it a consolidation rather than a distribution day, because the Nasdaq shed just 3 points on slightly higher volume. It was another day where good setups were hard to come by. Tech sectors were mixed so some are starting to bounce including disk drive, hardware and the SOX. The NDX winners were CDWC, TLAB, LNCR and the losers were SEPR, GILD and YHOO.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/25/2006 08:47:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - ZRAN
ZRAN was trading up in the pre-market on last night's stellar earnings report. I entered long on a break of the pre-market high. I closed the position on the first signs of weakness because that's the type of trading day it was and because there's no need to be greedy when you're up 1.8 points.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/25/2006 03:49:00 PM 6 comments




In Play
Only one big winner so far - long ZRAN on a break of the pre-market high. Sold AMD for a small profit. Stopped out on BRCM for another tiny profit.

RIMM popped up on the 3 day breakout T_I scan. Waiting for a suitable entry. I'd like to see it pull back to $78.00 but it's consolidating at the high end of its bullish move.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/25/2006 11:30:00 AM 0 comments




Monday, April 24, 2006Watch List - ENER, SWIR, CELG, CYMI
ENER is consolidating recent gains and could move higher anytime.

SWIR gapped up on a great earnings report at the end of last week. Keep this one on your watch list as a potential momentum play on a break of $18.00.

CELG is a buy on a high volume break of $40.00 or a retest of support at $39.00. Same type of concept as CYMI below.

After a 38% retracement of the last leg up, CYMI looks ready to move back up to retest recent highs. Buy on a break of $54.00 or on a successful retest of support at $53.00. I'm posting the 15 minute view below to get a better idea of the two possible entry points. If one 15 bar closes below $53.00, the setup is no longer valid.



Carryover from last night - AMD still looks good as a long. It had a a small breakout today but needs more volume. DRIV is still on the watch list as a potential consolidation breakout play.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/24/2006 08:17:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture
A small hammer reversal bar sitting on support of the January high and the 20 day EMA. All tech sectors were in the red again today, however most lifted off of their lows into the close. Disk drive was the exception, it closed on its lows and has been one of the worst perfomers over the last three days. Today's NDX losers were BRCM, SIRI and JDSU. The winners were CELG, NVDA, ISRG.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/24/2006 05:10:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - CMED
CMED showed up on the Trade_Ideas 3 day breakout scan around 10:30. I waited till it consolidated and broke resistance at the blue line before entering a position. As you can see from the oscillators and indicators, CMED met all of the criteria for a momentum move. I exited the position into the close for a +2.00 move.

N.B. - Blogger problems again all morning. I see they have scheduled some maintenance for tonight, so the regular posts may be late. If I don't post tonight then you'll know its a blogger problem.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/24/2006 04:10:00 PM 2 comments




In Play - BRCM, CMED
Blogger problems again. I was not able to post all morning.

Short BRCM on the open. Covered 50 % at the 10:00 reversal time at $41.76.

Long CMED at $25.25.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/24/2006 01:44:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

TZOO - How High?
TZOO's bearish gap willed be filled at $45.00

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/24/2006 01:28:00 AM 0 comments




Sunday, April 23, 2006Watch List - OXPS, SOHU, AMD, DRIV

Click on charts for a larger view and to read my chart notes.

These are all bullish setups. I'm looking for the Nasdaq to stabalize after Friday's fall so I won't be posting any short setups. RBAK is still in a good position and may try to breakout again this week ( refer to Thursday's watch list for the setup).
I will be trading lite in the next few days as I still have a lot of other work to get caught up on.
Good Trading everyone!



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/23/2006 11:24:00 PM 0 comments




Mailbag - How to Use the Trade_Ideas Scanner Effectively
Recently, several readers have enquired about the Trade_Ideas Scanner. More specifically, which scans I use and how.

The main scan I use is the basic 3 day breakout on high relative volume. If I see a familiar stock pop up on the scan, I check the chart to see if it meets my criteria for a breakout before I decide to take the trade. My criteria for a consolidation breakout is:

price break;
increase in volume;
rising ADX (momentum);
and stochastics above 50 and rising.

Here is an example of a trade I took on the bullish 3 day consolidation breakout scan this week.

TZOO showed up on the scan at 10:37 Wed. April 19th. From the chart, you can see that it met all of the criteria. Also, a view of the daily chart revealed that the stock had quite a way to go before running into gap resistance.



The same applies for the bearish 3 day breakdown on high relative volume except this time, we look for the OBV and stochastics to be heading south. A good example of the breakdown is MATR which showed up on the scan at 9:32 Friday April 21st. From the chart below, you will see that it meets all of the criteria and a review of the daily chart revealed that MATR had just violated a key support area and had quite a ways to go until the next support area.


If one or more of the criteria are not met, the trade is not executed. Try to stick with familiar stocks, otherwise you might find yourself trading a stock with a big spread between the bid and ask and this could erode potential profits. Don't stay in the trade after the target has been met. Sell at least 50% of the position in order to lock in profits and keep a stop to protect the balance from quick snap backs.
If you are interested in Trade_Ideas, my affiliate link is located in the side panel.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/23/2006 10:08:00 PM 0 comments




Friday, April 21, 2006SOX - No Momentum
The P&F chart has a bullish target of 595 for the SOX. From our current reading of 518 that makes for a nice little rally.

Prices are well off of the recent lows, yet the ADX line just keeps moving lower. Hopefully the divergence will rsolve itself in the short-term so that we see some real movement here.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/21/2006 11:17:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture

Today's session started off very bearish and had a second wave of selling in the afternoon before bouncing a bit into the close. It was a combination of options expiration and profit taking. The Nasdaq carved out a wide range, bearish engulfing pattern on higher volume. It managed to observe the January high and the 20 day EMA as support. We have some negative divergence of the RSI that could be an early reversal sign, but its too soon to tell. The worst performers were disk drive and semis. Large caps fared worse than small caps. Furthermore, there was a big divergence between the INDU and SPX versus the Nasdaq. No major damage but if we don't stabalize and neutralize Friday's action early next week, we could be in for a correction. Today's big NDX losers were SNDK, ERICY and MRVL and the winners were GOOG, AKAM, and JOYG.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/21/2006 09:19:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - MCHX
As per last night's watch list, MCHX was trading up in pre-market so as soon as it took out the pre-open bar, I went long. 50% profit was booked at the 10:00 - 10:15 reversal hour. I exited the balance just under $23.00 on weakness in the afternoon. I was busy with other things so this was my only trade today.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/21/2006 09:14:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
I wanted to take the day off because of options expiration. Then I just had to see if any of the watchlist stocks would trigger on the open. So I'm long MCHX, 50% profit taken on the 10:00 reversal. That's it, I have to get caught up on my taxes.

Good trading!

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/21/2006 10:34:00 AM 0 comments




Thursday, April 20, 2006Watch List - NVDA, MRVL, RBAK, LRCX
NVDA is starting to look very bearish. A rounded top, followed by a gap down and now a small bearish flag formation. Watch this one closely.

MRVL trading up in AH trade.

RBAK almost succeeded in breaking out today, but we need more volume.

LRCX is testing its recent highs and could break out anytime, however, its come a long way in just three weeks so it may need to consolidate before making a sustainable move through resistance.

We had a few false breakouts today and these will have to come back into their trendlines before attempting another retest. AKAM is a good example.

MCHX is still on our watch list and it is consolidating nicely in the top portion of yesterday's wide range bar.

Watch BRCM as it had a beat on earnings tonight.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/20/2006 10:08:00 PM 2 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture
Outside of the first hour, it was a pretty dull day. We ran into resistance and faded quickly and then the afternoon was a sideways waltz. The Nasdaq carved out a narrow range inside day on higher volume ahead of options expiration tomorrow. Most sectors stayed close to the unchanged level except networking which took a loss of 2%. The NDX winners today include two of our favourites CTXS, CKFR, and INTU and the losers were MEDI, JNPR and EBAY. If you look at the Nasdaq dynamic heat map, you'll notice that outside of those companies which reported last night and this morning, there is hardly any color, which means very little for day traders to trade on in this group.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/20/2006 05:54:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Trade of the Day - CKFR
I got a late entry on this one due to Island problems. Originally intended as a buy stop order above the pre-market high. I had to scamble to get into CKFR when I realized I wasn't. Exit 50% at $57.00 and exit the balance near the close. The Island problems were on and off all day and some of my stops did not execute. So I stayed in this trade longer than I normaly would have. But this trade was great compared to the missed stop on BRCM earlier in the afternoon.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/20/2006 03:50:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Long CKFR, ADBE. Bad fills all round because Island problems this morning. My AKAM and TEK entries didn't get filled at all so I'm looking for suitable pullback entries.

Qs hit resistance (as mentioned in the pre-market post) and came back in fast and furious .

Update 3:00 p.m. EST - A good day to catch up on your sleep. If you're like me, you usually only get to catch up on the weekends.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/20/2006 10:54:00 AM 0 comments




Pre-Market
Analyst comments courtesy of Briefing.com

Analyst comments mixed on EBAY.... RBC downgrades to Sector Perform from Outperform, noting results were as expected, but ASPs of goods sold appear to have dropped materially... Deutsche Bank maintaining their Hold rating saying they are still on the sidelines, and believe that uncertainty is increasing looking ahead. Firm is lowering their ests and price target to $35 from $40, due to a series of deteriorating metrics (slowing GMV/transaction growth), miscalculated strategies (on lower fee Store listings onto the core business), and weak current business trends (in the US and UK).... Piper Jaffray noting eBay showed a marked departure from its recovery pattern exhibited over the last three qtrs which had seen avg upside to guidance of $38M. Auction revenue per user dropped by 3% from Q4 compared to the more typical increase in Q1. While the firm believes eBay is generally doing well and these are minor hiccups, they do believe the overall consumer trends that helped eBay grow so fast in 2003 and 2004 have changed and eBay now is facing a general headwind. They lowering price target slightly to $41 from $44 and maintaining Market Perform rating. Firm would be buyers, however, if the stock continues to see pressure and goes to the mid-$30s....JP Morgan recommends buying eBay shares at current levels. 1Q average rev/listing was impacted by the inclusion of SIF listings with core search results. As SIF listings have been removed from US and Canada search results, they do not believe 2Q rev/listing will experience the same pressure as they did in 1Q. Firm does not believe guidance assumes improved rev/listing and as such, they believe guidance is conservative.[size=+0]

Caution on the open - Qs will run into resistance.

BRCM, CREE, GOOG, SNDK - [size=+0]reporting tonight after the bell. BRCM [size=+0]shares hit $47.00 in pre-market.

NOK - [size=+0]Up 6% in pre-market on earnings report.

AAPL - Is it a long or a short? Cautious comments from analysts:

Analysts mostly positive on AAPL telling investors to focus on H2 reacceleration.... Piper saying the bottom line is, while results and guidance did not show the significant upside that Apple has enjoyed over the last several qtrs, they believe investors' focus will shift to the Sept and Dec qtrs. Firm expects that in the Sept and Dec qtrs growth in Apple's business will re- accelerate, accompanied by a higher likelihood for earnings upside. This should be driven by a full line of Intel-based Mac's (with the new iBook and Power Mac), new iPods, an uptick in the halo effect, and back to school and holiday seasonality. The wild card in the next year remains the iPhone. While not in their numbers, the firm believes an iPhone will be a significant driver to Apple's business. Believes the Street had generally been anticipating that Apple would again guide conservatively. Maintains Outperform but takes tgt to $99 from $103.... JP Morgan noting the greater than expected iPod seasonality is somewhat of a concern, but they expect new products and some potential price reductions to generate a seasonal rebound in the second half of the calendar year. On the Mac side of the equation, the firm believes the Intel-based iBook is imminent, which should reduce much of the current Intel transition risks. Furthermore, they believe the co's new Boot Camp software will trigger a significant acceleration in Mac share gains as we exit this calendar year. Firm is making some minor downside estimate revisions but reits Overweight.... Prudential a bit more cautious saying they remain concerned with continued rev/EPS/iPod/music deceleration and the investment community's wanting need to push this stock too quickly. They would look for a 10%-15% correction in the stock to become more constructive on the shares. Maintains Neutral Weight.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/20/2006 07:40:00 AM 0 comments




Wednesday, April 19, 2006Watch List - Long - MCHX, MXIM, CTXS, AFFX
Watch MCHX on the open. Looks like it wants to breakout after successfully recapturing its 50 MA on a closing basis on high volume. Short interest on this name is 25%.

As long as it doesn't breach support at $37.00, MXIM looks ready to move up from here.

CTXS reported stellar earnings in AH. Traded as high as $40.42 in AH trade. Next level of resistance is $45.50.

AFFX is trading slightly lower AH. A pullback on the open could be a good buying opportunity as long as it doesn't breach support at $34.00.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/19/2006 09:00:00 PM 0 comments




Watch List - Short - EBAY and AMD
Here is the 5 minute view of EBAY in AH trade. Could be a short candidate for tomorrow.

AMD is trading slightly lower in AH and looks ready to retest $30.00.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/19/2006 08:32:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture




The Nasdaq carved out another bullish bar on relatively high volume. The SOX and internet stocks led the rally today on the heals of earnings reports from YHOO, CYMI, and TXN. Hardware and disk drive were weak today. We have resistance just overhead so careful tomorrow. Tonight we heard from CTXS and AAPL which are both trading up in AH. EBAY, JNPR, and NVLS are trading down on weaker earnings. Tonight's earnings are not as strong as last night's so we may be in for a pullback. Today's NDX winners are YHOO, GILD, and BRCM; and the losers are GENZ, AMGN, and PIXR.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/19/2006 06:47:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - TZOO
This came to me through the Trade-Ideas consolidation breakout scan. Originally intended as a scalp because price was already so high, TZOO ends up being the trade of the day. I made 2 points on the first entry and another point in the afternoon.

N.B. - Blogger has scheduled maintenance this evening so I may not be able to post all of my usual stuff at the usual times.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/19/2006 03:56:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Long CREE

Update 11:23 - Check out TZOO. It showed up on my Trade Ideas scanner as a three day consolidation breakout at 10:37 and I was able to get 2 points on it. It's currently consolidating the big move.

Update 12:04 - Long AKAM

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/19/2006 10:19:00 AM 0 comments




Tuesday, April 18, 2006Watch List - TEK, CYMI, CTXS, AMAT, BRCM, AKAM
TEK had a nice move today. Hope you were able to catch some of it.

Cymer beats by $0.11; guides above consensus (CYMI) 49.45 +1.34: Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.52 per share, $0.11 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.41; revenues rose 49.9% year/year to $127.1 mln vs the $120.3 mln consensus. Co reports Q1 gross margin of 46% vs 44.6% street expectation. Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees Q2 rev growth of 5-10% sequentially or roughly $133-140 mln vs. $128.13 mln consensus. See Q2 gross margin of 48-49% vs 46.7% street expectation.

Look for a big gap up on the open.

CTXS - Same old consolidation pattern and it looks good to break anytime.

AMAT - Look for a three day consolidation breakout or a gap up on the open.

BRCM is trading up in AH and looks well positioned to challenge $47.00 resistance.






AKAM is well positioned to retest its recent high of $34.00.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/18/2006 07:48:00 PM 0 comments



Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Tuesday, April 18, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture
The market gapped up and held its gains for the first hour and half. We had a second leg up from 11:00 until shortly before the Fed minutes. After the announcement, we started the third leg up for a total of 45 points on the session. The markets needed to hear that an end to the interest tightening was near in order to move higher. Now if earnings are favourable, we should be able to accelerate the bullish bias. All tech sectors were in the green with the SOX the clear leader, adding 3.4% on the session. After hours trade was good as well with several big names beating and/or guiding higher. The following names are trading higher in AH - YHOO, CYMI, TXN, GILD, IBM. MOT, on the other hand, is trading down. Most NDX stocks closed the session favourably. The big winners were JDSU, SNDK, ATVI.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/18/2006 07:12:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - AKAM
Entered AKAM on a break of resistance. Sold 50% as the market started to weaken before noon. I was stopped out on the balance of the position just prior to the FOMC minutes. I re-entered the full position after the FOMC minutes were released and closed the position for an additional $0.40.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/18/2006 04:16:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Slow start this morning as last night's watch list did not come into play.

Long AKAM, and MRVL.

Update 12:08 EST: Sold 50% AKAM and MRVL. Long AAPL and BRCM.

Update 1:49: The market has peaked for the time being (awaiting FOMC minutes) and I have been stopped out profitably on all four positions.

Interesting item on CNBC - Susquehanna analyst on CNBC says NVDA options trading, noting they have seen investors buying April options, positioning for some sort of mkt moving information in NVDA over the next four days.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/18/2006 11:41:00 AM 0 comments




Pre-Market
TZOO gapping up on earnings beat: TZOO prelim $0.24 vs $0.14 Reuters consensus; revs $16.9 mln vs $14.71 mln Reuters consensus

NDX futures up just slightly.

Piper Jaffray believes expectations are low for AAPL's March quarter results, noting that the co is scheduled to report March quarter results on 4/19. They expect Apple will report in line or slightly below Street consensus of $0.43 on $4.54 bln and, similar to last year, will guide June quarter revenue and EPS flat or up slightly from March quarter levels, which could be below consensus. Their analysis of the first 2 months of March quarter iPod shipment data from NPD leads them to believe Apple is on track to meet or be slightly below their 9.0 mln iPod assumptions. They expect Mac sales in the quarter will be closer to the Street's average estimate of 1.16mln. While they do not expect Apple's March quarter results and June quarter guidance will exceed expectations, they continue to believe that Apple will launch new products and gain market share with the Mac in 2H CY06 and CY07, which would likely lead to outperformance for AAPL shares. Firm's Mac market share sensitivity indicates that a 1% increase in share in CY06 would add $0.33 (or 14.5%) to their $2.28 CY06 EPS estimate.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/18/2006 07:46:00 AM 0 comments




Monday, April 17, 2006Watch List - BBBY, AMZN, ITRI, ENER, AAPL, CYMI
BBBY may be finished pulling back. Look for a reversal off of today's hammer like bar.

AMZN is a potential short if the market is weak again tomorrow.

I'm posting the ITRI chart as a follow-up to April 12th watch list.

ENER had a high volume breakout of a two and half month consolidation base. Look for continuation if high oil prices continue to dominate trading.

AAPL's selloff may be due for bounce as it has retraced 50 % of the move from the March low to the April high. Click on the 60 minute view for a better indication.

CYMI shed over a dollar as it follwed the market down midday, however, in the last 90 minutes of high volume trade it took everything back and more. CYMI appears to be in the handle portion of a cup & handle continuation pattern and will likely retest $50.00 soon. It reports earnings tomorrow after the bell and could be a good long in anticipation of a glowing report.

N.B. TEK and CTXS are still on the watch list even though I am not reposting the charts tonight.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/17/2006 08:32:00 PM 2 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture
Although we were still on holiday lightened volume, today's selloff was energy related and touched all major tech sectors. Pacing the way was the SOX followed by software and hardware. DDX (disk drive) managed to close in the green. Although we took out last week's low, the late day bounce brought us all the way back to 2311 after trading as low as 2299. Today's NDX losers were topped by JDSU, RHAT, and CHRW. The winners included CTSH, FLEX, and PTEN. Hopefully, with the onslaught of earnings scheduled over the next three days, we can start trading off of more than just rising energy and commodity prices.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/17/2006 07:54:00 PM 0 comments




Trade(s) of the Day - AMD and BRCM
I missed the open due to some maintenance work that had to be dealt with first thing this morning, but the day was not lost because I was able to get some very good low risk short setups in the late morning.

I'll start with AMD because it was on our watch list this weekend as a short candidate below $31.60. In late morning, AMD took out he low set on the opening 15 bar and I went short at $31.55. I covered in the last half hour at $30.17 for a nice gain.

The second shorting opportunity was BRCM. This is a new setup which I've been developing lately. I set an upper and lower parameter based on the late day trade of the previous trading session as marked by the two blue lines. The object is to trade in the direction on the first bar that closes outside of the parameters on the 15 minute timeframe. Although both the upper and lower parameter were tested in early trade, our first close below the lower parameter didn't occur until shortly after 11:00 as marked by the pink arrow. This is wide range bar on higher volume and presents a strong indication that BRCM is going lower, however, a higher risk because the stop would set above it. So I waited for a lower risk opportunity. The next bar was a hammer (potential reversal). The next two bars are NR and both closed below the blue line. As price took out the second NR bar, I took the low risk short. I covered 50% after a gain of $1.00 and covered the balance near the close.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/17/2006 04:14:00 PM 2 comments




Saturday, April 15, 2006Tech Heavy Reporting Week Ahead
Tuesday - IBM, LLTC, YHOO, MOT, TXN, CYMI

Wednesday - INTC, AAPL, CTXS, EBAY, RMBS, JNPR, NVLS, QCOM

Thursday - CREE, FFIV, BRCM, FDRY, SNDK, GOOG, CERN (NOK pre-market)

AH except where noted

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/15/2006 10:59:00 PM 2 comments




Watch List - NTAP, THLD, SYNA, TEK, AMD
Despite Cramer's strong recommendation of NTAP and CTXS as potential stars of the next tech rally, I am posting this chart of NTAP because it looks well positioned to break as early as Monday. Next level of resistance is in the area of $41.00. CTXS has been on my watchlist for a while now and could also be a buy on an upside break of its current consolidation pattern.


Thursday THLD broke out of a four month base on three times average daily volume. I like how the ADX is curving up from a very low reading. This often foreshadows explosive moves. Let's see if THLD has legs.

SYNA broke its downtrend line on a closing basis on Monday. On Tuesday it gapped up on high volume. Since then, it has been consolidating its gains. I would like to see it pullback to $24.00 before resuming its uptrend. I'll be watching SYNA daily to see how it unfolds. Next earnings report is Thursday April 20th, AH.

TEK swung into action on Thursday, carving out a morning doji star reversal pattern. Look for further upside next week.

The street did not appreciate AMD's quarterly earnings report and there are many reasons to expect more selling next week including the gap down on extremely high volume and the fact that the stock closed on its lows and in so doing violated support. Short below Thursday's low of $31.60.

N.B. I will be updating this post over the course of the long weekend.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/15/2006 09:34:00 AM 7 comments




Thursday, April 13, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture

We didn't do too badly for a volume reduced pre-holiday session. The Nasdaq added 11 points and carved out a wider range bar which met with resistance mid-day. Networking and biotechs led the rally, while the internets and software lagged. The SOX was mixed due to AMD's weak earnings report offset by LRCX's strong beat.Today's NDX winners were AMLN, LRCX, and SNDK while the losers were NVDA, PDCO, and EXPE.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/13/2006 07:22:00 PM 0 comments


Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Thursday, April 13, 2006Trade of the Day - BRCM
As per last night's watch list, I bought BRCM on the open. I booked 50 % of the profit during the 10:00 - 10:20 reversal time and sold the balance on weakness midday. We didn't quite make it to the target price of $45.00. The AMD short had bigger profits but the entry was quite late and so I'm not using it as the trade of the day.

Happy Holiday and enjoy the long weekend!

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/13/2006 04:20:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Long BRCM and CKFR

Update 11:10: Long AFFX, also took a small short on AMD just under $33.00. Covered 50% just above $32. Partial profits taken on CKFR and BRCM.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/13/2006 09:44:00 AM 0 comments








Wednesday, April 12, 2006
Watch List - AFFX, CKFR, BRCM, LRCX, ITRI, ADSK, AKAM
AFFX rallied hard into the close and has formed a nice base from which to breakout of its bottom. Buy on a high volume break of $33.00.

CKFR has had a nice orderly pullback into its base support. With a little volume, we could have a nice break to the upside. Just checked out Trader Mike's evening post and if you like this type of setup, he has many charts with similar pullbacks.


This is a 15 minute view of BRCM. It has made a nice base and looks ready to break out and move up to $45.00.



LRCX is trading just above last week's high in AH trade on an earnings beat. I will be watching it in the pre-market. A strong open could take us to the February highs. A weak open could be a potential fade.

With a little more volume ITRI may finally breakout.

ADSK has been consolidating its recent gains and may break anytime.

This is a 60 minute view of AKAM. It could be a buy when it comes back into its trendline. Look for a quality reversal setup on the trendline in the highlighted area.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/12/2006 10:41:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture

The Nasdaq carved out a higher low and a narrow range bar on much lower volume. Biotechs were the strongest sector and hardware the weakest. Basically nothing was accomplished in this session as the ADX swooned lower right into the close. Today's NDX winners were CTSH, NVDA, and ERICY and the losers were ALTR, AAPL, and BBBY.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/12/2006 06:56:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day
No trade of the day today. Couldn't find any quality setups so I spent most of the day scalping.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/12/2006 03:46:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
We are lacking good quality setups as we weave in and out of the moving averages at this intermediate bottom. Hope the afternoon will be better.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/12/2006 12:01:00 PM 0 comments




Pre- Market
AKAM will replace CHIR in the NDX 100. Trading up over $32.00 in pre-market.

FAST beats by $0.01 but light on revenues.

NDX futures weakening as we get closer to the open. Currently -1.25 at 9:15 EST.

JMP downgrades GOOG from strong buy to outperform based on slower growth outlook.

VRTX upgraded at Piper from market perform to outperform.

PWAV upgraded from sell to buy at Matrix.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/12/2006 08:53:00 AM 0 comments




Tuesday, April 11, 2006Watch List - AAPL, CELG, LRCX, AKAM, SNDK

Click on charts for larger views.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/11/2006 08:44:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture



Another very bearish session for the Nasdaq which shed 23 points on higher volume. In addition, breakout support was breached on a closing basis and both the MACD and ADX had confirmed bearish crossovers. The only positive thing to note is that the McClellan Oscillator is giving a relatively oversold reading. All sectors were bearish lead by biotechs, networking and semi. The biggest NDX losers were CELG, JDSU, and ISRG. JDSU seems to show up in the top three losers almost every night. Isn't that one of Cramer's top buy picks? This afternoon's trade was sloppy, I think we're due for a bounce.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/11/2006 08:08:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Thursday, April 13, 2006Trade of the Day - BRCM
As per last night's watch list, I bought BRCM on the open. I booked 50 % of the profit during the 10:00 - 10:20 reversal time and sold the balance on weakness midday. We didn't quite make it to the target price of $45.00. The AMD short had bigger profits but the entry was quite late and so I'm not using it as the trade of the day.

Happy Holiday and enjoy the long weekend!

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/13/2006 04:20:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Long BRCM and CKFR

Update 11:10: Long AFFX, also took a small short on AMD just under $33.00. Covered 50% just above $32. Partial profits taken on CKFR and BRCM.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/13/2006 09:44:00 AM 0 comments






Update 9:15 EST - NDX futures down slightly (-2.50)
[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/13/2006 08:14:00 AM 0 comments




Wednesday, April 12, 2006Watch List - AFFX, CKFR, BRCM, LRCX, ITRI, ADSK, AKAM
AFFX rallied hard into the close and has formed a nice base from which to breakout of its bottom. Buy on a high volume break of $33.00.

like this type of setup, he has many charts with similar pullbacks.


This is a 15 minute view of BRCM. It has made a nice base and looks ready to break out and move up to $45.00.



LRCX is trading just above last week's high in AH trade on an earnings beat. I will be watching it in the pre-market. A strong open could take us to the February highs. A weak open could be a potential fade.

With a little more volume ITRI may finally breakout.

ADSK has been consolidating its recent gains and may break anytime.

This is a 60 minute view of AKAM. It could be a buy when it comes back into its trendline. Look for a quality reversal setup on the trendline in the highlighted area.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/12/2006 10:41:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture

The Nasdaq carved out a higher low and a narrow range bar on much lower volume. Biotechs were the strongest sector and hardware the weakest. Basically nothing was accomplished in this session as the ADX swooned lower right into the close. Today's NDX winners were CTSH, NVDA, and ERICY and the losers were ALTR, AAPL, and BBBY.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/12/2006 06:56:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day
No trade of the day today. Couldn't find any quality setups so I spent most of the day scalping.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/12/2006 03:46:00 PM 0 comments





We are lacking good quality setups as we weave in and out of the moving averages at this intermediate bottom. Hope the afternoon will be better.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/12/2006 12:01:00 PM 0 comments




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/12/2006 08:53:00 AM 0 comments




Tuesday, April 11, 2006Watch List - AAPL, CELG, LRCX, AKAM, SNDK

Click on charts for larger views.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/11/2006 08:44:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture



Another very bearish session for the Nasdaq which shed 23 points on higher volume. In addition, breakout support was breached on a closing basis and both the MACD and ADX had confirmed bearish crossovers. The only positive thing to note is that the McClellan Oscillator is giving a relatively oversold reading. All sectors were bearish lead by biotechs, networking and semi. The biggest NDX losers were CELG, JDSU, and ISRG. JDSU seems to show up in the top three losers almost every night. Isn't that one of Cramer's top buy picks? This afternoon's trade was sloppy, I think we're due for a bounce.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/11/2006 08:08:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Tuesday, April 11, 2006Trade of the Day - AKAM
By mid-morning when most of my screen was awash in red, I noticed AKAM was going against the grain. A review of the chart showed that AKAM had held yesterday's low amid the sell-off. I waited for a consolidation break and entered a position. I took a quick profit on 50 % of the position after a 50 cent gain and sold the balance after a 1 point gain. On a late afternoon Fibonacci retracement (38%) and following a low risk NR bar, I was able to grab another quarter point into the close. A nice sane trade in an insane chop, chop sell-off. The first part of the sell-off was tradable and so was the first little bounce, but after that it was too hard to read.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/11/2006 04:05:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Long SCHW, FAST

CTXS - Bought in pre-market - stopped out - just a scratch

Update 10:30: SCHW - stopped out

FAST - Booked a profit

AAPL - Shorted at $68.35 - booked 50% profit after $1.00 gain.

Update 1:33 - Covered balance of AAPL $67.87 and went long. Stopped out $68.44

Long AKAM $30.34 and booked 50 % profit after a 50 cent gain.

Update 1:50 - Closed balance of AKAM after $1.00 gain.

Qs are still in the gutter. Short quick scalps seem to be the most profitable on the volatile names.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/11/2006 09:46:00 AM 0 comments




Pre-Market
I've written this post twice already and Blogger keeps wiping it out.

I'm not re-writing the whole thing but check out AAPL on a morning gap up.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/11/2006 09:00:00 AM 0 comments




Monday, April 10, 2006Watch List
TEK may be ready to move higher after several weeks of consolidation. Look for a high volume break of today's high.

SCHW - Buy on a high volume break of $18.25.


SOHO and NTES both carved out NR bars after a shallow correction. Both have the potential to reverse tomorrow.

CKFR held its gap support on a closing basis which is generally considered a bullish signal.

CELG is oversold and could bounce back to its 20 day ema. Today's low was slightly higher than Friday's. Buy on a high volume break of today's high.

As noted in the Trade of the day post, CTXS is yet again on the watch list. Today's high is a new 52 week high. Buy on a high volume break of today's high ($38.55). Applications software is the best forming tech sector at the moment.


FAST made a higher low on the 15 minute chart this afternoon and looks well positioned to try to move higher. Buy on a break of $46.70 as long as the afternoon low holds as support.

A few stocks that have recently broke out, are currently consolidating their gains in the upper range of the breakout bar(s). Keep these names on your radar in case of a continuation break:

AMSG, RMBS, ADSK, JOYG, NVDA



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/10/2006 11:35:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture

The Nasdaq carved out a narrow range bar on lower volume and just managed to close above support. The hardware, diskdrive and networking sectors were the worst and software the best. The only major market sector that performed well today was energy. I noticed that 80% of the gap up plays were energy related. The only major company reporting results - AA, had a stellar QTR, beating estimates by $0.17. Hopefully this will create some buy interest in the markets tomorrow. Today's NDX winners were RHAT, JOYG, and GOOG, with CTXS in at number five. The losers were JDSU, SNDK, and ESRX.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/10/2006 09:02:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - CTXS
CTXS was a watch list pick and a gap up play. It became a buy as it took out its pre-market high. As ususal 50% profits were locked in at the 10:00 reversal time. A midday attempt to break out failed, however, since CTXS closed near its highs, we will be looking to buy on a high volume break of today's high again tomorrow. Hopefully, we will have better market conditions. Today felt like the summer doldrums.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/10/2006 03:59:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Long CTXS
Short FFIV
50% profit booked at 10:00 on both positions.

Update 10:19 - stopped out on balance of FFIV.

Update 12:36 - CTXS has broken the consolidation pattern to the upside by about 10 cents (currently trading at $38.51). We need a little more volume for the type of move we would expect from this play.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/10/2006 10:06:00 AM 0 comments




Pre-Market
Semiconductor related news courtesy of Briefing.com:

UBS downgrades AMAT, KLAC, LRCX, VSEA to Neutral from Buy on valuation. Firm favors WFR.

Stifel & Co. believes almost all cos in its coverage universe will at least meet and likely exceed the firm's Q1 forecasts as near-term industry fundamentals continue to improve. Firm expects the most upside from cos like Lam Research (LRCX), Cymer (CYMI), and FormFactor (FORM). Memory has been the main driver for cap-ex in Q1. In terms of outlooks, firm expects most front-end cos to forecast additional sequential gains for JunQ in the range of +10%-15%. Overall, firm maintains a Neutral industry stance as there have not been signs that there will be a significant uptick in 2H06 capex spending . Firm would particularly avoid back-end cos, as these names have already reached a peak.

Jury finds that Axiom Microdevices misappropriated Silicon Laboratories' trade secrets (SLAB) 57.59 : Co announces that a jury in the Federal District Court in Austin, TX found that Axiom Microdevices misappropriated Silicon Laboratories' trade secrets and that the misappropriation was done with malice, fraud or gross negligence. The Court has not yet entered a judgment and will hold additional hearings to determine the appropriate remedies. Silicon Laboratories' trade secrets are related to proprietary technology for its Si4300 CMOS power amplifier for cell phones.

Digitimes reports Billy Wang, vice president for Asia Pacific and China at ATI Technologies (ATYT), stated yesterday that the company's new SB600 southbridge chip will be introduced in May. Wang was responding to recent speculation that ULi Electronics may no longer provide southbridges for ATI-based motherboard platforms, following its acquisition by ATI-rival Nvidia (NVDA). According to Wang, ATI aims to boost 2006 revenues with new products, while lowering its capital expenditure (capex) and better controlling its production costs to boost profits, after failing to meet profit expectations last year. ATI has completed its new product roadmap for this year, including the upcoming SB600 to be manufactured at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM).

Digitimes reports market rumors suggest that Intel (INTC) may very likely lower prices of its core processors by 20-40% at the beginning of May, two weeks earlier than formerly expected, according to the Chinese-language Apple Daily.

___________________________________________________________

Early pre-market weakness in semis is noted in particular LRCX, CREE, AMAT, and ATYT

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/10/2006 07:54:00 AM 0 comments




Sunday, April 09, 2006Watch List
Despite being oversold, FFIV looks shortable on a high volume break of $64.00. If it moves up, then we will wait for a retest of the broken trendline.

CTXS is in a narrow consolidation range and could break out anytime as long as support at $37.00 is not breached on a closing basis.

CKFR has pulled back to support on lower volume after last Tuesday's gap up and wide range bar. Looks bullish from here as long as it doesn't take out Friday's low in early action tomorrow.

AMSG was a high volume gap up play on Friday following a Wachovia upgrade from market perform to outperform. It now has a solid base from which to fill the gap to $26.00. Buy on a pullback to support at $24.00 (if it holds - second level of supoort is $23.50) or a high volume break of $24.50. Indicators and oscillators are bullish.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/09/2006 06:23:00 PM 0 comments




AAPL - Inverted H&S Formation or Full Throttle?

Click on chart for larger view.

Is AAPL in the midst of forming an inverted H&S or is it full steam ahead from here? Price and volume were extremely bullish this week. Despite resistance just overhead, keep this one on your daily watchlist as it may surprise us with its strength. The ADX crossover foreshadows further strength as the ADX line has just started to curl up.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/09/2006 11:03:00 AM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Sunday, April 09, 2006$GOLD - First Test of $600
Expect $GOLD to pullback to its support area $570-575 before it can successfully move back up to break $600. It's the round number effect. $600 is a big number and $GOLD needs to pull back in order to get some traction for the big push forward. The strength of the U.S. dollar also affects gold, however, U.S. dollar strength is not expected to last long.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/09/2006 10:32:00 AM 0 comments




Friday, April 07, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture


The pre-market was bullish in reaction to the employment report based on limited inflationary pressure and seemingly well paced economic growth which in general is good for stocks. However, treasuries responded negatively to the employment report because it didn't provide any evidence for a possible end to the monetary tightening by the Fed. The increase in the 10 yr. note brought stocks down. The 10 yr.note yeild has been flirting with 4.9% all week and has been stifling a full blown stock market rally for some time now. Today it closed in on 5.0%.

The Nasdaq shed 22 points, carving out a wide range bearish engulfing pattern on slightly lower volume. The lack of volume suggests that we may be able to overcome the drastic drop in price, but I'm doubtful that we can snap back quickly. My entire sector screen is red so all sectors participated in the fall, with the SOX and NWX, the hardest hit and software the least affected. Within the software sector, certain applications software actually were bullish today and most of the week. Examples are ADSK, ADBE, CTXS, and INTU. Today's NDX losers were topped by RIMM, JDSU, and AMZN. The NDX winners, of course, you guessed it, include ADSK, ADBE, and XRAY.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/07/2006 07:33:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - ADSK Long and VRTX Short
Spent most of the day looking for low risk quality setups and there were very few to be had, so I tried this one with ADSK. The entry was off of the trendline after a very NR bar with a stop just pennies below the NR bar. Slow but sure. Could be a nice short for next week.



I also managed to pick up $0.50 from a Trade-Ideas scan in the afternoon on SYNA. It had already made a nice move but began to consolidate in a very narrow range so I picked up a few shares at $23.50 with a tight stop and it rallied above $24.00 before pulling back. The real time scans are great especially when quality setups are hard to come by.

The market gapped up too high off the employment report and the bears were waiting at the gate. Last night's VRTX short setup from the watch list was a perfect play to get the day going. I think its self explanatory from the setup and this chart.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/07/2006 04:13:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Only one trade so far - Short VRTX on a break of yesterday's low.

Update 10:40: Covered 50% at $32.00

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/07/2006 10:14:00 AM 1 comments




Pre-Market
NVDA - Initiated as a Sell at ThinkEquity - target $24 ex split.
XLNX - Initiated as a Buy at Stifel - target $30.00
QCOM - Incr. dividend by $0.03 from 0.09 to 0.12 - trading above $52.00 in pre-market
QQQQ - Spiked up 0.25 on employment data.
PALM - trading up vs. RIMM trading down
ENER - trading up - watch for a three day consolidation breakout above $48.84

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/07/2006 08:23:00 AM 0 comments




Thursday, April 06, 2006Watch List - Long

SOHU - long on a break of $26.40. After a shallow pullback to the rising 10 day ema, today's action resulted in a higher low, bullish engulfing candle. SINA also looks good here.



AKAM - A narrow range inside day after a shallow pullback. Buy on a break of $32.03.



MXIM - Did not really participate in the SOX rally, but has formed a rounded bottom and has been consolidating just under $38.00 for six straight sessions. Buy on a break of $38.04.



OVTI - Has been consolidating in a narrow channel for several sessions. Buy on a break of $31.00.



PAYX - After a four day orderly pullback, PAYX may be ready to move back up. Buy on a break of $41.61.



QCOM - Buy on a break of the four day consolidation pattern above $52.00. Next level of resistance $53.90.



TRID - Same consolidation pattern in play. Look at the 5 minute chart of this afternoon's action and wait for a flat base breakout.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/06/2006 11:15:00 PM 0 comments




Watch List - Short
Biotechs got smashed today and VRTX went down for the ride. A negative WSJ article targeting CELG brought the whole sector down. VRTX will likely try to bounce back to its support break area near $35.00, before continuing to fall.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/06/2006 08:28:00 PM 2 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture


Nice rally between 12:00 and 2:00, but the open and the close were weak. The SOX was strong (finally a bit of follow through). The NDX outperformed the COMPQ again so large cap tech is the place to be right now. Volume was better than yesterday so we seem to be moving forward even though the tape dosen't show much today. The ADX line is now well above 20 and if the +D moves up as well, we might really get some momentum going. From an overbought standpoint, the stochastics are giving an above 80 reading but the McClellan Oscillator is pretty much neutral. Today's NDX winners were SIRI, XMSR, and BBBY. Let's scratch out BBBY because from a day trading point of view, it didn't do anything and add AAPL. The top 10 also includes ADSK, MRVL, and LRCX. Biotechs were on the losing side today - CELG, MEDI, and GILD.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/06/2006 07:53:00 PM 0 comments




Don't Forget to Set Alerts
This is a reminder to myself. I was just going over last night's watch list and I'm kicking myself for forgeting to set an alert for the ADSK setup. Here is last night's watchlist for ADSK and here is the result. At the risk of sounding silly, I've really got to take this job more seriously going forward. I'm leaving too much easy money on the table. From now on, as part of my morning preparation, I must check that I have all my alerts in place. Okay, that's enough of that, let's move on.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/06/2006 06:28:00 PM 2 comments




Trade of the Day - LRCX
LRCX was part of last night's watch list as was MRVL. Both were started off on a buy stop orders. LRCX was entered just above yesterday's high. Around 9:55, I felt the market was weak so I booked 50% profit. I was stopped out on the balance. LRCX then pulled back to it rising 10 period ema forming a hammer reversal bar. The next bar had a higher low and formed a doji. When the next bar took out the high of these two reversal bars, I re-entered my full position size. From the daily view, I knew we would run into resistance in the area of $45.50, so I locked 50% profit at $45.55. The balance of the position was stopped out again. Notice that LRCX has made a lower high in the afternoon. It probably needs to rest after such a nice run in the past two days.

MRVL got off to a good start and I locked in some profits around 10:00, but the pullback was deep and the risk reward on a re-entry was not as compelling. I attempted a late day trade with MRVL on a break of resistance, but it didn't go very far.

I also had a nice trade with AAPL. Same setup as yesterday, on a bounce from its rising 10 period ema on the 15 minute view during the lunch hour.

My ITRI trade, although profitable just serves to remind me why I hate trading stocks with a big spread between the bid and ask. A stock that averages less than 1M shares a day is often too difficult to manage once you're in the trade.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/06/2006 04:02:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Wednesday, April 05, 2006Watch List - ADSK, AKAM
ADSK looks like it wants to test its down sloping upper channel trendline and its 200 day MA. Volume is starting to pick up on bullish days.

This setup is valid as long as AKAM does not take out today's low.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/05/2006 09:56:00 PM 0 comments




Watch List - Semiconductors - Consolidation Patterns
All of these semi stocks are well positioned to break their consolidation patterns. Most need more volume to move price in a meanigful way. Watch the pre-market for an indication on how they wll open. MRVL is up quite a bit in AH and BRCM should be active in the pre-market.





BRCM's weekly chart is shaping up nicely. If we don't lose the gains so far this week, we have a bullish doji morning star reversal pattern.






[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/05/2006 08:45:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture
After gapping up 5 points, the Nasdaq rallied another 5 points and then faded all the back to yesterday afternoon's low. By noon it started to bounce back and spent most of the afternoon in rally mode to end the day up 14 points. Unlike most days, the SOX was a major contributor to the rally, gaining 2.76% on the day. Five of the top ten NDX names were semiconductors. The NDX big winners on the day were AAPL,SNDK and MRVL.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/05/2006 05:47:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - BRCM and AAPL
As soon as it became clear that BRCM had broken resistance , I tried to get in at the lowest price. The breakout point was around $45.40 and I was able to get in at $45.44. The intial target was $46.00. I picked it up a second time just above the support of its rising 20 period ema and sold into the close. BRCM closed on its highs and will be on tonight's watch list as a three day consolidation play.

In addition to the trades I posted in the In Play section, here is the best trade I took on AAPL. On a pullback to the rising 10 period ema on the 15 minute view, I bought AAPL for $66.05. The target was the declining 50 day MA on the daily chart which was $67.07. I sold AAPL as soon as the target was met at $67.05.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/05/2006 04:27:00 PM 2 comments




In Play
I missed the open because I was out of the office. But some of my buy stop orders were triggered - PALM and RIMM. Thank god for mobile traders as I was able to put in stops. Both positions have been sold, PALM with a profit and RIMM breakeven.

Update 10:51 - long AAPL $64.80 - sold $65.40

Update 1:25 - another long AAPL trade $66.08 - closed at an avg. price of $66.55. Feels like it wants correct here.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/05/2006 10:35:00 AM 0 comments




Tuesday, April 04, 2006Watch List
RIMM had a strong finish today and may try to break this consolidation high in anticipation of earnings later this week.

LRCX - Long or short? Either way, it should really move once the play gets going.

PALM is consolidating recent gains, but could push back up any time.

SLAB's indicators and oscillators are strong and it could attempt to break resistance at $60.00 in the near term.

CLMS hit a new 52 week high today. The oscillators are strong, now we need a little more volume.

Last week's quarter-end window dressing is being followed by new money. NVDA is not showing any signs of a slow down. However, there is a lot of resistance between here and $70.00 and don't forget the stock split on Friday.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/04/2006 09:44:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture
The Nasdaq recouped yesterday afternoon's loses on slightly stronger volume. The session did feel slightly muted without the participation of the SOX, which peaked at 10:00 and faded into the close. The internet sector was strong and networking was weak. For the day, we carved out a lower low and a lower high. Today's NDX winners were BMET, CKFR, and NVDA. CKFR was my trade of the day and NVDA had another strong volume day, closing near its highs. I'll be watching it on the open tomorrow.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/04/2006 06:33:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - CKFR
I noticed that CKFR was trading up in pre-market on an upgrade from Sun Trust (refer to pre-market post) and placed a buy stop order above the pre-market high. As usual, I booked a profit on 50% of the position at the 10:00 reversal time and was stopped out on the balance after an additional $0.90 gain. The retracement setup did not take off as planned so I set my stop at breakeven for a scratch.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/04/2006 03:59:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

In Play
Long CKFR on break of pre-market high.

Update 10:10: Locked 50 % profit on CKFR - 2 point gain. sweet!

Update 10:57: CKFR has retested its highs and is now consolidating. I've moved my stop to $53.59 which is just below the rising 10 period ema on the 5 min. view.

Update 12:17: Moved my stop on CKFR up to $54.75. This stock is unbelievably strong today.

Update 12:24: Stopped out on the balance of CKFR.

My high speed internet service is on low speed today and it is very difficult to scalp. I've been trading BRCM all morning and I'm finding it very difficult because my quote screens and charts freeze up. They opened a service order to resolve the problem and told me it will take anywhere from 24 to 72 hours. Hope it's closer to 24.

Update 12:47: Here is a chart of the CKFR trade. I've put a Fibonacci retracement on it and will be watching it closely this afternoon for a retracement setup.




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/04/2006 09:46:00 AM 0 comments




Pre-Market
So far we have a subdued open setting up as there are no real catalysts. No economic releases today.

CKFR - Upgraded from neutral to buy at Sun Trust.
ADSK - Trading up in pre-market due to positive analyst comments.
TEVA (refer to last night's watch list) trading up as high as $42.20

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/04/2006 08:25:00 AM 0 comments




Monday, April 03, 2006Watch List
Most of my scans are turning up toppy looking reversal patterns. I see a lot of long upper shadows, bearish engulfing bars, and even a hanging man. So tonight's watchlist will be short. There are still pockets of strength in the semiconductors, so I will be looking for follow through there as well.

TEVA has formed a symetrical triangle and looks well positioned to break out in the near term. Look for a volume spike on the break.

MCHP looks well positioned to test and take out its January highs. All of the indicators and oscillators are bullish.


ITRI still looks good to break out. We just need more volume.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/03/2006 09:53:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture

The market gapped up and had a solid morning, adding 18 points at its midday peak, however, the afternoon was plagued by a wave of selling which shed over 20 points resulting in a negative close for the day. Volume was average but greater than Friday so this counts as a distribution day. The SOX was the strongest tech sector and managed to keep 1.1% of its morning gains despite the afternoon selloff. Looking at the 60 minute view, it appears that the market is retesting its breakout point. As long as it observes its trendline as support, we are still in a bullish mode. Today's NDX winners were JOYG, CHIR, and BRCM. Topping the losers list were AMLN, SNDK, and URBN.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/03/2006 07:39:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - BRCM
BRCM on a break of Friday's high. 50% of the profit was locked in at the 10:00 reversal time and the balance was sold on weakness after a gain of 1.8 points. As noted here this weekend, the curve in BRCM's ADX line implied that a turnaround was imminent.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/03/2006 05:43:00 PM 0 comments




Watch List - ITRI
ITRI will break $61.00 anytime now. These are all time highs so we don't have to worry about resistance once we move above this range. I am aware that the monthly view just carved out a doji which could eventually be a star, therefore, just a reminder that a close below the trendline negates the long setup. We are adding ITRI to the existing watch list which was last , on my watch list are all of the names discussed in this weekend's semiconductor review below.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/03/2006 12:02:00 AM 0 comments




Saturday, April 01, 2006Semiconductors - Strengths and Weaknesses

Currently we have a P&F target of 445 for the SOX, however, we've had a pattern of steep rallies off of these types of pullbacks in the past year. This should resolve itself in the near-term.

SOX sector weakness has been plagued by an inability to break the 20 day EMA and 508 resistance on a closing basis for almost three weeks.

Pockets of Strength NVDA, OVTI, ZRAN - Names with a Rising ADX LINE

The Yahoo message board for NVDA was buzzing with a message entitled " NVDA Now on TOP Short List". As it turns out Scott Sullivan of Briefing.com has a special feature for Active Traders where he posts scan results for the following trading day and he indicated that NVDA had staged a false breakout on Friday and was ripe for shorting. I wonder if he is shorting NVDA with his own capital. As far as I can see NVDA followed the market on Friday and is in the process of consolidating its recent gains. On a Fibonacci retracement basis, it is unlikely that NVDA will pullback much below $55.00 and it could just continue to move sideways until it's ready to move higher. Shorting strong stocks is not part of my game plan. I don't like getting squeezed.

OVTI is consolidating recent gains and could move higher anytime. Buy on a break of the consolidation high.

ZRAN looks like it is forming an ascending triangle.

Extreme ADX Readings Despite Prices That Have Rallied off of Recent Lows - CYMI, LRCX, SNDK - This type of divergence usually precedes explosive price moves.

Watch CYMI for a close above its downsloping tendline.

LRCX has made a series of higher lows as it observes the support of it rising trendline. A close above its 50 day MA would be very bullish.

SNDK is a little harder to read, but keep it on your radar as it may surprise us with some follow through shortly.

ADX Pauses (Flattens) after Recent

Strength - CREE and PMCS - A pullback to the rising 20 day MA is likely for these two names.

ADX Curling Upwards after Recent Pullback - BRCM

BRCM looks like it will stage a turnaround in the very near term.
[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/01/2006 10:14:00 PM 0 comments



Friday, March 31, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture
Like yesterday, the advance stalled at 10:00. For the most part, today was a lacklustre day as characterized by lower volume, a narrow range bar, and the loss of just 1 point. The only positive take away is that we held breakout support at the end of the quarter. The SOX was down 1.2% due to institutional selling of weak sector names like SNDK, KLAC, MRVL, XLNX and AMAT. Today's NDX winners were CTXS, LBTYA and EXPE.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/31/2006 07:40:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Friday, March 31, 2006Trade of the Day - AKAM
AKAM was good to me this week. Purchase on break of yesterday's high with 50% profit locked in at the 10:00 reversal time. I had to leave my desk so I set my stop on the balance of the trade just below the pre-market low (a calculated risk given the strength of the stock so far this week). I was able to pick up some more on a volume spike in the last half hour (this last trade was taken on a 1 minute chart). Surprisingly, it took out $33.00 and I was stopped out on the entire position when it came back in.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/31/2006 04:07:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
BLKB long

Watch AKAM for a break of consolidation high

Update: Long AKAM on break of yesterday's high

50% profit booked on BLKB. Not enough volume to support the breakout - tight stop.

I have to leave and will not be able to update the blog during the trading day.

Good Trading!

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/31/2006 09:43:00 AM 0 comments




Pre-Market
NDX futures and QQQQs are hugging the unchanged line.

A few noteworthy items for some of our watchlist stocks courtesy of Briefing.com :

TRID - Amtech notes that GNSS pre-announced the March quarter, guiding revenues to $60-61 mln vs $62-67 mln. They say the shortfall was attributed to weaker than expected demand for flat panel TV controllers in Europe and for digital CRT TV controllers in China. Firm would be buyers of both TRID and OIIM on weakness due to ‘guilt by association.' They believe that GNSS O.E.M. customers (LG, Toshiba, Philips) are losing share to TRID O.E.M. customers (Sony, Sharp, Samsung). Additionally, they think TRID could see upside potential from penetration in tier two O.E.M.s and O.D.M.s. As such, they continue to believe estimates will move up through the year. Despite the miss, they say GNSS did comment that LCD monitor demand was in line with expectations (flat q/q) and thus increases their conviction that concerns over OIIM monitor inventories are overdone. They note that as recently as last week, OIIM management reiterated that the monitor problems from Q4 have not resurfaced.

NVDA - Digitimes reports Nvidia on March 30 announced a new line of Nvidia Quadro FX graphics solutions, the Quadro FX 350M, 1500M, and 2500M, for mobile workstations, which will be incorporated into Dell's Precison M65 and M90 workstations. Nvidia Quadro FX mobile solutions offer the same features found in Nvidia workstation graphics solutions for desktop-based professional workstations, stated the company. These include exclusive features like 12-bit sub-pixel precision and full 32-bit floating point precision, noted Nvidia.

AKAM - Prudential expects another strong quarter out of Akamai driven by high levels of media traffic, particularly video. Firm raises their 1QE revenue and EPS ex-option expense to $87.1 mln and $0.17 (consensus is for $85.3 mln and $0.16) and their 2006E revenues and EPS ests to $371 mln and $0.73 (consensus is for $363.9 mln and $0.71). Given higher demand they are slightly increasing their capex forecast to 14% of revenue, putting some downward pressure on free cash flow. Despite continued strong business trends, they believe the stock has gotten ahead of itself.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/31/2006 08:56:00 AM 0 comments




Thursday, March 30, 2006Watch List - Long
FFIV could go to $77.00 in the near term with a little more volume.

I'm still holding out for a bullish break on TEK. Today's close held support.

NWRE has strong momentum and should be able to breakout of $30.00 in the near term so keep this one on your radar.

BLKB is a momentum play with strong volume. Buy on a break of the consolidation high above $21.11. No resistance.

Also keep an eye on AKAM, NVDA, ENER, OVTI and CREE which are consolidating recent gains. I'm still bullish on BRCM as well.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/30/2006 09:59:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture
Not surprisingly, the market didn't give us much follow through after yesterday's quarter-end window dressing. The Nasdaq added just three points on lower volume and carved out what could be a star with shadows at both ends. The SOX and internets were weak, while hardware added to yesterday's gains. The advance just stalled at 10:00, came back in and the rest of the day was narrow range. The INDU meanwhile, carved out a bearish engulfing bar, but managed to close above support.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/30/2006 09:05:00 PM 2 comments




Trade of the Day
No trade of the day posting tonight as I was busy with another project most of day. This new project will be taking most of my time over the next week or two so I will be concentrating on early morning trade setups for the next little while. Regular postings in the evenings will continue on slightly delayed schedule.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/30/2006 08:50:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Long TEK and BRCM

Profit booked on BRCM

Tight stop on TEK

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/30/2006 10:06:00 AM 2 comments




Pre-Market
BBY trading up in pre-market on guidance; earnings in line.

BIDU starting to come back in after trading as high as $58.00 in AH trade yesterday. Last trade $57.34

QQQQ - Resistance at $42.00. Starting to weaken.

Top Trade counts: VPHM, ATYT, NOK

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/30/2006 08:20:00 AM 0 comments




Wednesday, March 29, 2006Mailbag
I have fallen behind in answering my email, but I will catch up in the next few days. Sorry for the delay.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/29/2006 10:25:00 PM 2 comments




Watch List - Long
CTXS - Potential consolidation breakout above $36.00 but caution that volume was weak today.

ENER - Chart update.

AKAM - Chart update. Next notable resistance level is $35.00.

NVDA - I love you, but let me catch my breath.

BRCM is oversold and looking to move higher from here. Today's action carved out a bullish engulfing reversal pattern with a long lower shadow on high volume. There's a lot of resistance overhead so a strategic entry point is key here.

BIDU looks like it wants to move higher from here. There will be some resistance in the $55.75-$56.00 area, but on a break of $56.00, it could make a play for $60.00. The indicators and oscillators are bullish but we need more volume.

P.S. - BIDU traded up to $58.00 in AH on very little volume. I can't find any news and the message boards are rife with rumours.


TEK started to break out of its narrow consolidation pattern this afternoon. I will try to pick this one up tomorrow on a pullback to intraday support ($35.30 - 35.70) or on a break of today's high, which ever comes first. The first level of resistance is $36.70, followed by $37.50 and eventually $40.00.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/29/2006 10:00:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Wednesday, March 29, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture

The Nasdaq had a great day as new institutional money went to work in a big way. This was a heavy accumulation day with lots of money going into semis, internets and hardware. The Nasdaq added 33 points, carving out a wide range bar which managed to close at a multi-year high. The big NDX winners were AAPL, XLNX, and NVDA. The ADX line looks like it may cross above the -D line at any moment. A push above 20 will really add some momentum going forward. From the McClellan Oscillator, we can see that we have yet to reach an extreme overbought level.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/29/2006 07:28:00 PM 1 comments




Trade of the Day - AKAM
Profiled here on Monday night, AKAM was a classic consolidation breakout. My entry was triggered automatically on a buy stop order as it broke above the six day consolidation high. In mid afternoon I set a stop at the consolidation low and was stopped out into the close.

I've been waiting all month for this day and unfortunately I was away from my desk fo most of the day. However, I can't complain because I was able to get two very profitable trades. The balance of the ENER trade was closed at the end of the trading day.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/29/2006 06:57:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Long ENER on a break of yesterday's high.

Update 10:06 EST - 50% profit locked in after $1.50 gain - Sweet! ENER was profiled here last night as a potential mover. I have personal business to attend. Back later this evening.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/29/2006 09:53:00 AM 0 comments




Pre-Market
Gapping Down: RHAT, PAYX

Interesting Observation: Institutions dress their quarter end books by adding more of the top performers even if they grossly overpay for them in the last week of the quarter.

UBS raises FDRY target from $17 to $21.

Stanford upgrades JCOM from Hold to BUY

UBS downgrades CAT and IR from Buy to Neutral

UBS believes recent weakness surrounding Fed actions and ongoing indications of a good but not great general system IC environment have created attractive opportunities in BRCM, MU and PMCS around earnings reports. In the firm's opinion, these companies and NETL are executing to solid business plans that will allow them to outperform throughout this period of uncertainty. Discussions in the PC channel and ongoing pricing pressure in the NAND industry leave MRVL and SNDK relatively (and respectively) more exposed to earnings disappointments than other names in their coverage.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/29/2006 08:04:00 AM 0 comments




Tuesday, March 28, 2006Watch List - XLNX, PAYX, YHOO, ENER, CREE
XLNX is just one of many bearish looking semi charts. I'm not in a rush to short first thing tomorrow, however, if the market tells me to short, I will be ready.

PAYX is a potential short on tonight's earnings miss.

YHOO has finally broken the downward channel on a closing basis. The 50 MA may push it slightly lower and $32.00 may be a good entry point either for a swing or intraday trade.

ENER could get interesting soon. Notice how volume has recently started to pick up on bullish days. A break of $50.00 on a closing basis will surely mean a retest of recent highs. It is currently in a very narrow trading consolidation and could break either way.


CREE is stiil strong here and can be traded intrday at key pivot points which are represented by the thin lines in the chart above.

NVDA may try to retest $55.00, but it looks like it's due for a pullback after a nice run.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/28/2006 09:41:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture
The first half of the day had more spark than I had anticipated, conversely, the response to the FED policy was more negative. It may have something to do with the 10 year yield combined with the lack of any indication as to when the rate hikes will come to an end, whatever it is, the markets don't like it and will likely correct in the near term. A close below the 50 day MA will be very bearish. The SOX led the way down and the internets were amazingly resilient in the last hours of trade.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/28/2006 07:41:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - QQQQ
After the FED policy announcement, the QQQQ's fell precipitously, however, after the first wide range 5 minute bar lower, they came back up to test the $41.50 area, this was a low risk entry point with a stop just above the $41.50 pivot point. The fall was decisive with very little back and forth like we usually get. Since the market likes round numbers, I covered 50% at $41.02. I covered the balance when it was clear that $41.00 was going to hold as support. Note the capitulation type volume level as the Qs hit $41.00 for the first time, an hour after the policy release. (N.B. - Although this is not necessarily my best trade in terms of real $$, it is a good shorting example.)

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/28/2006 04:20:00 PM 0 comments




Technical - QQQQs
The QQQQs have just broken resistance at $41.50 intraday after testing and failing on Friday and again yesterday.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/28/2006 12:26:00 PM 2 comments




My Favourite Technical Expert
The market is in the doldrums and will continue this way until the 2:15 Fed policy announcement, so now is a good time to catch up on some reading. Here is Mike Ashbaugh's take on the state of the markets along with a few trade ideas. Click here.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/28/2006 12:11:00 PM 0 comments




In Play - OVTI, NVDA, CREE
Long NVDA - Break of yesterday's high - 50% profit locked in.

Long CREE - On a pullback - entry $32.55

Update 11:30 EST - Sold Balance of NVDA. Bought a small position in OVTI.

Update 11:50 - CREE profit locked in - stopped out on a breach of 10 period EMA on 5 minute view.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/28/2006 10:59:00 AM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Monday, March 27, 2006Watch List - FDRY, QLGC, CREE, AKAM, NVDA, NEW, OVTI
FDRY is making its way towards the next level of resistance - $18.55.

QLGC violated its support neckline on a closing basis.

CREE is pulling back to its pivot point $32.50.

AKAM has been consolidating for a few days and is well positioned to continue its uptrend in the short-term.
NVDA not showing any signs of slowing down just yet. Next level of resistance is in the area of $55.00.

After gapping slightly lower this morning, NEW came back strong and closed on its highs. It is approaching resistance and may try to break tomorrow.

OVTI meets all of the criteria for a three day consolidation breakout pattern. It also closed on its highs so watch this one on the open tomorrow. Ressistance in the $31.50 -31.90 area.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/27/2006 07:16:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture

The Nasdaq carved out a narrow range bar on relatively low volume ahead of the Fed policy annoucement tomorrow afternoon. Most tech sectors were modestly red, however, the gold and silver index did quite well today. Tech outperformed the other major indices. I will not be initiating any new positions after 12:00 tomorrow as things usually get fairly quiet in the few hours preceding the Fed announcement. Notice how the ADX line is finally starting to edge higher. This could be bullish if the ADX (black line) crosses above the -D (red line) as this will give us some momentum if we retest the highs. Today's NDX winners were ISRG, CHRW, GRMN and NVDA.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/27/2006 05:30:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - NVDA, MDG
I only executed two trades today and since they are different setups, I am posting both charts.

My alert for NVDA was triggered in the pre-market as it took out Friday's high. I watched it trade in a narrow consolidation prior to the open. I set a buy stop order 5 cents above the consolidation high and was filled at $52.17. I sold my entire position as soon as I noticed that the QQQQs had hit resistance at $41.50. I had it in mind that today's action would be narrow range given the FOMC meeting, so I was happy to grab this much profit right off the open.

MDG gapped up this morning and had an orderly, shallow pullback to the rising 10 period EMA. The entry was made after the stock had demonstrated a few higher lows (15 Min. view) in the support area of its 10 EMA. The stop was just under the low of the previous bar. 50% profit was taken when price stalled in the $29.20-.25 area. The balance was sold on weakness shortly after a failed retest of the high.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/27/2006 03:39:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Long NVDA - Position liquidated as soon as QQQQs hit $41.50 resistance. Entry $52.17 exit $52.90

Several Gold and Silver names in the Gap Up scan.

Update 2:10 EST - the $XAU has run into the resistance of its 50 day MA on the daily chart so gold positions may not be able to move much higher today. Took a position in MDG - low risk entry $28.56 - sold 50% at $29.20. Hoping for a retest of the high on the balance of the position. Currently consolidating at $28.96. However, I won't initiate any new gold positions today.

Update 3:14 - Sold balance of MDG position for $29.17

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/27/2006 10:11:00 AM 0 comments




Pre-Market
N and AL upgraded from Hold to Buy at Citigroup

QQQQ pulling back towards support

AMGN - just out - Amgen announces FDA Approves Extended Dosing of Aranesp to Treat Chemotherapy-Induced Anemia

NIHD - Gapping up above $56.00 (all time high)- can't find any news

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/27/2006 09:01:00 AM 0 comments




Sunday, March 26, 2006Sector Watchlist
The market is likely to take a wait and see approach until Tuesday's 2:15 Fed policy announcement. In the meantime it might be a good strategy to buy intraday pullbacks of strong sector stocks. Here are a few of the best looking tech sectors going into next week.

XTC

NBI

NWX

SOX

Gold and silver ($XAU) is another sector that looks strong going into next week.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/26/2006 11:41:00 PM 0 comments






When the breakout occurs, it is accompanied by high volume.
[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/26/2006 11:51:00 AM 0 comments




Friday, March 24, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture
There wasn't enough volume for any sort of follow through in today's session and I noticed a lot of failed breakouts. But despite all of that, the Nasdaq added 12.7 points and looks well positioned to retest its highs next week. Networking and semi stocks were today's leaders. Today's big NDX winners were TLAB, GOOG, and AMLN. In the semi space SNDK and NVDA were the best performers and BRCM the weakest with a violation of the 50 MA on a closing basis.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/24/2006 05:07:00 PM 1 comments




Trade of the Day - NVDA
NVDA on a break of yesterday's high. 50% of profit locked in on the first signs of a reversal and the balance was stopped out.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/24/2006 05:00:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Longs - ELOS, TEK, NVDA

Update 10:50 EST - ELOS abandoned 50 % of position as it stalled, NVDA 50% profit locked in. TEK - Tightened stop to $35.25

Update 1:00 - stopped out on TEK (scratch), abandoned balance of ELOS and I've just locked in profits on the balance of the NVDA trade.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/24/2006 10:32:00 AM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Friday, March 24, 2006TEK - Watch This Stock as it Pulls Back Towards its Gap Support


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/24/2006 02:37:00 AM 0 comments




Thursday, March 23, 2006Watch List



JCOM is high risk. This pattern is recommended for day trading purposes only. On a high volume break of the consolidation pivot point.

Click on charts for larger views.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/23/2006 11:11:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture


Another choppy day on the Nasdaq with relatively little damage on lower volume. The Nasdaq carved out a narrow range inside bar with a small upper shadow and longer lower shadow. We retested yesterday's high but not yesterday's low so we end the day on a slightly positive note. Another positive is that the SOX was the strongest of the major tech sectors, lead by MRVL and NVDA which had a nice moves today.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/23/2006 07:33:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - NEW
NEW was a combination gap up and consolidation breakout play as highlighted on last night's watchlist. The entry was $46.10. Some profit was locked in at $47.20 and the balance was sold at $47.65 which was close to my resistance level of $47.70. A second trade was taken in the last hour as volume started to pick up and a bullish engulfing pattern formed on the 15 minute timeframe.

I am extra cautious trading NYSE stocks as it has been my experience that when a stock stalls and turns the other way, it goes quickly and there is a lot of slippage on stops.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/23/2006 04:24:00 PM 2 comments




In Play
NEW - long

Update 11:43 EST - The entry price on NEW was $46.10. I've just locked in profit on 50% of the position after a gain of $1.10. The target on the balance of the trade is $47.50 - $47.70. Intraday support is in the area of $47.00.

Other intraday trades: BRCM bounce off of the intraday lows - position sold. URBN - position stalled - tight stop.

Update 12:08 - Sold balance of NEW - profit target was reached. The target is based on resistance levels that I see on the daily view. If NEW consolidates or pulls back in an orderly fashion, there could be more upside. Next level of resistance after $$47.70 is $49.10 (opening of bearish gap resistance).

Update 1:00 - Sold URBN. Still watching NEW for any kind of pullback and reversal pattern. This stock is really strong today.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/23/2006 09:50:00 AM 2 comments




Pre-Market
YHOO - UBS upgrade - neutral to buy - Price target $39 - Trading up $0.75 in pre-market
JBL - Earnings in line and raised guidance. Needham upgrade - hold to buy; BofA raised target from $38 to $42
BVF - Earnings beat and raised guidance
AMD - Speculation that AMD could benefit to the detriment of INTC by Dell's acquisition of Alienware.
PALM reports AH today. Stock trading up in pre-market.
XRTX - earnings beat and raised guidance - significant gap up this morning. Currently trading at $31.10 on a close of $26.11. Support levels $30.90, $30.50 followed by $29.50. Resistance is the pre-market high so far $31.75.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/23/2006 07:50:00 AM 0 comments




Wednesday, March 22, 2006Watchlist





[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/22/2006 08:51:00 PM 0 comments




Follow up on Yesterday's Charts
AAPL - Gapped up slightly because the MSFT - Vista delay was seen as an advantage, however, it and failed to break $63.00 and ended the day near its lows, forming an narrow range bar with a high upper shadow. Still very bearish.

BRCM - Violated its 50 day MA on an intraday basis, but closed on it as it rallied nicely into the close. Formed a narrow range bar with long shadows on either side.

GOOG - Doji on lower volume.

OXPS - Minor breach of $27.00 on the open but managed to rally and hold, forming a piercing line pattern on low volume.

QLGC - Did not breach the neckline and managed to close above the 50 MA.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/22/2006 08:24:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture

The Nasdaq gapped down to the 50 day MA on the open and spent much of the day chopping to and from the unchanged line. It wasn't until the last hour when a small rally developed that we were able to put more than a few points on the screen. As long as 2295 holds as support we are bullish and until 2280 is taken out to the downside, shorting will be difficult. Volume was lower than yesterday. Today's candle cannot be considered bullish because we did not take back more than 50% of yesterday's real body, so we are neutral for now. By comparison, the action on the INDU and SPX was decidedly bullish. The biotechs and internets pulled the Nasdaq up whereas hardware and semis pulled it down. The SOX, however, showed some strength into the close so this could play out well tomorrow. ADBE is trading down in AH on lower guidance.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/22/2006 07:30:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - OVTI

OVTI was a three day consolidation breakout trade. Although the position was closed on a mid-day failure to take out the morning high, I was able to grab a bit more from this one in the last half hour of trade on a volume spike.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/22/2006 04:13:00 PM 2 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Wednesday, March 22, 2006In Play
I'm not seeing many good trading opportunities this morning as the market consolidates yesterday's action.

Only one trade this morning. Bought OVTI on a three day consolidation breakout. 50% of position sold. I'm posting the chart with the Fibonacci retracement levels. I think this one can go to $29.50 - $30.00 based on resistance levels from here.




Update 11:44 EST - Watching NEW - It has been consolidating its gains from last week just under a resistance gap ($45.25). If the gap gets filled at $46.00, NEW could easily go to $48.00.
Here is the eSignal chart for NEW in reponse to comments.

Update 1:40 - OVTI appears to have just failed on a break of today's high so I am closing the position for now. The QQQQs are pulling back on a failure to break resistance.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/22/2006 11:18:00 AM 4 comments




Tuesday, March 21, 2006Shorting Opportunities - BRCM, QLGC, OXPS

BRCM may be ripe for shorting on a break of the 50 MA. Death cross just ahead.

QLGC has formed a small H&S top. Shortable below $19.25.


OXPS looks like it's about to break out of its bearish flag pattern.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/21/2006 10:25:00 PM 0 comments




NVDA - High Volume Gap Up Tests Resistance - Can it Hold?

Click on charts for larger views.

Bolstered by a Lehman  a high volume breakout which closed just $0.23 above its February high. The next level of major resistance is in the area of $56.00, however, we will need to see continuation fairly quickly in order for this break to hold. The 60 minute view shows that NVDA has regained its accelerated trendline. Looking at the AH action, price is down to $50.10 so we may be in for some profit taking here too. What is the likely impact of the MSFT Vista delay on NVDA?

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/21/2006 08:00:00 PM 0 comments




GOOG - Bearish Engulfing Pattern near Gap Support
GOOG's bearish engulfing pattern developed on average volume and we do have signs of positive divergence. Might be best to wait for confirmation.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/21/2006 07:36:00 PM 0 comments




AAPL - Further Downside on Break of Support
[url=]AAPL [/url]may retest $62.50 before continuing its journey south. Near-term target is $57.50

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/21/2006 07:28:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture




The Nasdaq actually hit its January high of 2332.92 during today's session but had a very bearish reversal in the afternoon. The SOX led the Nasdaq rally this morning, but after hitting an intraday multi-year high, the market reversed on heavy afternoon selling with no bounce into the close. The after-market was also negative and making matters worse was Microsoft's anouncement that the Vista operating system would not be available to consumers in 2006 as planned. The worst performing tech sector was the NBI (biotech) which fell sharply off the open, bounced back and then cratered again in the afternoon, carving out a wide range red bar. The Nasdaq finished the day with a red bar and high upper shadow. Combined with yesterday's spinning top, we appear to have a bearish evening star pattern. The 60 minute view shows that we closed on support, but that won't likely hold. Next level of support is 2280. NDX futures are down 11 points in after hours. Today's big NDX winner was NVDA and the three biggest losers were BMET, CELG, and AAPL. Based on today's high, the P&F chart has extended the price target to 2520 so I am posting the chart here, but this could change quickly if the market remains bearish.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/21/2006 04:07:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - NVDA
NVDA gapped up on a Lehman upgrade as indicated in my pre-market post. The entry was a break of the pre-market high on high volume. 50% of the position was exited on weakness during the midday consolidation. The balance of the position was stopped out when the market weakened in the afternoon. NVDA has closed above its multi-year high of $50.56.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/21/2006 04:01:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
NVDA and CYMI

Update 10:28 - SOX weakening after a bullish start. NVDA still strong.

Update 1:35 - SOX very strong today. Nasdaq outperforming due largely to SOX. Picked up some BRCM mid-morning.

Update - 11:51 Sold 50% of NVDA, BRCM, and balance of CYMI

Update 12:31 - I'm watching TEK. It is up 1 point from its intraday low and looks like it wants to move higher.

Update 1:25 - Long TEK

Update 2:08 - Scratch on TEK and stopped out on balance of BRCM

Update 2:30 - Stopped out on balance of NVDA position.




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/21/2006 10:08:00 AM 0 comments




Pre-Market - GOOG Unveils Financial News Service
GOOG - Unveils new financial news service to compete against Yahoo Finance. At first glance their service looks quite impressive. It even has a section of blogger related sites and message boards. I tried it using NVDA because NVDA is trading up in pre-

GOOG - CIBC lowers estimates based on expectations of lower margins due to higher sales expenses from deals like the Dell distribution deal.

NVDA - Upgraded from underweight to overweight at Lehman.

RMBS, DRIV - Raised Q1 revenue guidance. RMBS trading close to $36.00 in pre-market. Could make a run for the multi-year high $36.56.

QCOM - Trading down

NDX futures trading down -3.50 at 8:40 EST. QQQQ trading lower $41.41 - support $41.24

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/21/2006 07:45:00 AM 0 comments




Monday, March 20, 2006Chinese Internet Stocks - Momentum NTES, SOHU, SINA

NTES

SOHU

SINA

Click on charts for larger views.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/20/2006 11:35:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Monday, March 20, 2006Watchlist - PAYX, TRID, PEGS, FITB

PAYX broke out of a three day consolidation pattern today and is trading up in AH.


TRID carved out a doji morning star reversal pattern today. Watch this name tomorrow morning as it may attempt to break resistance.

PEGS was attempting to break out of its consolidation base in late afternoon. It closed above its 200 day MA. Volume has been robust in the last two sessions. Short-term target is $10.00.

FITB feels like it wants to break out of its base. It did a nice sprint in the last hour of trade and could be a mover tomorrow.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/20/2006 08:17:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture

After gapping up five points on the open, the Nasdaq failed to break through resistance and immediately turned back, spending most of the day chopping around a very narrow range on lackluster volume. The internet sector took the lead today but there was no continuation beyond the early session run up. There's a lot of resistance holding the sector down and it tried, but failed to break its three day consolidation high. Keep an eye on this sector tomorrow and look for an early break 191.50. Today's NDX winners were SIRI, XMSR, and ERICY.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/20/2006 07:14:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - SINA
SINA broke resistance of its three day consolidation high $25.75 on the open. The entry was $25.82. 50% of the position was sold to lock in profits during the 10-10:15 reversal time. The balance was sold in the last half hour at $27.00.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/20/2006 03:57:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Morning Trades - Long SINA and CKFR. 50% sold at 10:00 - 10:10 reversal time. CKFR since closed.
Currently watching TEK on an orderly pullback and consolidation near Friday's breakout point $35.21.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/20/2006 11:25:00 AM 0 comments




Pre-Market
Trading Up - RMBS, MIK, AKAM, YHOO, TEK, NTES, NOK, NVAX, CKFR

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/20/2006 08:54:00 AM 0 comments




Sunday, March 19, 2006CKFR - Well Positioned to Retest its Highs

Click on charts for larger views.

Featured in Barron's this weekend as a stock they like. They say CKFR could reach $60.00 in the near term if they beat analyst estimates, which according to Barron's is almost a sure thing.

CKFR is well positioned to attempt a retest of recent highs in the $55.00 area from its current price of $49.40. Looking at the 60 minute view, we can see that there is a lot of momentum pushing prices higher. If the 10 period EMA holds as support, the price will move to the next level very shortly. If the stock fails to move higher, wait for a retest of the accelerated trendline on the daily view.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/19/2006 08:16:00 AM 0 comments




Friday, March 17, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture

Click on charts for larger views.

On the week, the Nasdaq is not doing too badly. There's no point in analysing the day because it was options expiration so basically we are little changed from where we left off yesterday. I've posted a chart comparing the Nasdaq vs. the SPX (top of this post) over the last few years. Notice that when the Nasdaq leads there is a lot more momentum and the moves are steeper. In the last two years we've been stuck in a relatively narow trading range and unless the NAZ gets its mojo back soon, we are probably destined to go back and retest the bottom of the two year channel. Of course, the Nasdaq will likely lead the fall, thus, creating better shorting opportunities than we have at the moment.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/17/2006 07:01:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - TEK
TEK gapped up on high volume. After a shallow pullback and consolidation, I entered the trade on the break of the consolidation high. I exited 50% of the trade when it started to consolidate near the $36.70 area. I was stopped out on the balance. I re-entered the position in the last half hour as momentum built into the close.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/17/2006 04:12:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
I see that most of my morning posts did not go through due to continued Blogger problems. Just a short summary of my trades so far today.

Short MRVL on the open ($55.00) as it had already taken out yesterday's low in pre-market. Covered at $53.97.

Long RMBS - $33.35 - still in play.

Long TEK - $35.21 - still in play

P.S. - This post was originally poated at 11:59 am EST, but it actually went through almost an hour later.

Update 1:00 - sold 50% of TEK at $36.64

Update 1:27 - sold RMBS - market feels very weak here

Update 1:32 - stopped out on balance of TEK.

Update 2:39 - Currently eyeing TEK on a Fibonacci retracement level. A 25% retracement to roughly $35.60 would coincide nicely with the rising 20 period EMA on the 15 minute chart. However, time is runnung out and this stock is moving very slowly.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/17/2006 12:51:00 PM 1 comments




Pre-Market
RMBS - Trading up 7% in pre-market - signed license agreement with IBM. Resistance levels are $34.00 followed by $36.00.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/17/2006 09:04:00 AM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

MRVL - Weakness Due to Delay in Sony Playstation

MRVL closed just $0.25 shy of support at $55.00 and may bounce from that point. However, it's clear that MRVL is going down even at these oversold levels. Look for the right entry point and reversal candle setup to short the stock intraday. It's best to confirm the setup on multiple time frames before pulling the trigger.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/16/2006 11:55:00 PM 0 comments




Bearish on Semiconductors



The SOX's P&F pattern had a double bottom breakdown today with a target of 445 which calls for a drop of 50 points from today's close. The candlestick chart supports that bearish outlook with a bearish engulfing pattern and support violation. Next level of support is 480 which lines up perfectly with the 200 day MA.

I just did a quick review of all the semi stocks that I follow and I'd say 80% of them carved out bearish engulfing patterns for today.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/16/2006 07:49:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture


The Nasdaq gapped up and hit the top of its channel in early trade then proceeded to fill the gap. By midday it managed a lower high and it was down all afternoon from there. TheNasdaq closed on its low shedding 12 points and carving out a bearish engulfing pattern on higher than average volume (2.3 billion shares). So we have a distribution day and a clear bear signal at the pivot point. The 60 minute view confirms this outlook and we are headed back to 2280. The SOX is leading the way down, so if you are looking for some good shorting opportunities, it's probably the best place to start. Six of the top 10 losers on the NDX were semis including the three worst: LRCX, AMAT, and MRVL.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/16/2006 06:57:00 PM 0 comments




No Trade of the Day
Although I did manage to squeeze some money out of the market today, it's not enough to blog about. The other regular posts will follow later this evening. Right now, I'm off to the dog run.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/16/2006 04:04:00 PM 0 comments




In Play - CKFR
I didn't take any trades so far today. I missed CKFR which had a nice move out of a consolidation range on the daily chart. I am posting the 15 minute chart as the stock is currently pulling back in an orderly fashion and may setup a trade for the afternoon. The blue line marks support and coincides nicely with the 38% retracement level and the rising 20 period EMA. Look for a reversal candlestick pattern as well.


Update 3:25 - Long CKFR $49.14 - tight stop $48.98

Update 3:55 - Sold CKFR $49.50.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/16/2006 01:11:00 PM 0 comments




Pre-Market
SCHW - trading up 4% on positive monthly highlights report.

CPI data has given the futures market a real boost. NDX +6; S&P +3

QCOM upgraded by ML to a Buy from neutral; target $60.00

BRCM initiated as a buy at Kaufman Bros.; target $50.00

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/16/2006 08:42:00 AM 0 comments




Wednesday, March 15, 2006Watchlist - BNI, RBAK, FAST, QCOM, NDAQ, NVDA
BNI is retesting recent highs.


RBAK has succesfully tested its trendline and is now moving upwards to retest it recent high at $22.00.

FAST is consolidating in a narrow channel at the top of Monday's wide range bar.

QCOM looks like it will break $50.00 any day now.

NDAQ and NVDA which were posted here last night are also close to breaking out.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/15/2006 10:28:00 PM 0 comments




Chinese Momentum Stocks Back In Play - CHNR, CTDC

These and other chinese small cap momentum stocks are back in play after correcting over the last month and half.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/15/2006 08:45:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture



The Nasdaq gapped up about five points on the open and after an hour and half of chopping back and forth in a narrow range, it briefly dipped under the unchanged line before taking off in the afternoon. By the end of the session we had added 16 points on higher volume (2.1 billion shares). NWX and hardware were the leaders and the SOX and Internets the laggards, what else is new. Everyone is talking about the multi-year closing highs for the Dow, S&P 500, NYSE and Russell 2000. On the flip side, although the Nasdaq is still 21 points shy of a new multi-year high, it has outperformed both the SPX and INDU these past few days and for most of the rally off of the October lows. Today's NDX winners were SHLD, JDSU, and RIMM.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/15/2006 07:13:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Wednesday, March 15, 2006RIMM - Top Performer from Last Night's Watchlist
Bought RIMM on the open and sold 50% at $85.00 and the balance at $84.50. I was of the mindset that following yesterday's wide range bar on the Nasdaq, today would be a narrow range day and that I should grab profits early. Well too bad for me. As highlighted in last night's watchlist this was a bullish flag breakout play and it delivered in spades. Hope you got a bigger piece of it than I did.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/15/2006 04:29:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - NEW
NEW showed up on my gap up scan. I didn't take the trade after the first bullish OR bar because it was too close to the first resistance level I had identified from the daily view. After a healthy pullback, NEW managed to hold support of the low of the OR bar and formed a bullish hammer reversal bar. I entered the trade as soon as the high of the hammer was taken out. I managed the trade by moving my stop up as price moved up. After $1+ gain, I exited 50% of the position. I closed the balance of the trade in the $43.00 area because that was just below the second level of resistance and I had to leave. I didn't want to risk too much slippage which often happens with a NYSE stop order. In the end it was a good move.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/15/2006 04:06:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Long RIMM and ERTS again. Exited 50% shortly after 10:00 reversal and have since closed both positions.

Currently eyeing AAPL, NEW and watchlist for potential longs if the market finds its support.

Update 12:25 - Took a long position in NEW at $41.41 still open. Took a short position in AAPL $66.44 - target $65.50-65.00

Update AAPl 12:44 - covered 50% 65.75. Feels like it is capitulating. tighten stop.

Update 12:59 - stopped out on the balance of the AAPL trade at $66.15. NEW is up over $1.00 so I am taking a 50% profit.

Update 1:31 - NEW is consolidating and I've tightened the stop to $42.75.

Update 1:45 - NEW has been sold $43-43.05. I have personal business to attend to in the next few hours. I will post the chart for this trade later.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/15/2006 10:58:00 AM 0 comments




Tuesday, March 14, 2006Watchlist - Continuation

AFFX - Continuation of today's move. Target $33.30



NDAQ - This name had a high volume wide range bullish move on Friday and has since been consolidating in the upper portion of the wide range bar. The next big move higher should break resistance at $45.00



NVDA - Making its way upwards to retest its recent highs. Buy on a break of today's high $49.49. The target is $50.75 but if the break is successful, it will go higher.



JNPR - Continuation to $21.00. JNPR was the best performer on the NDX today and closed near its high.



BRCM - Has broken its downtrend line and will likely push itself to the next resistance level at $46.00 from today's close od $45.22.



AMD - Looks like it wants to go higher after the recent correction. Today's reversal carved out a piercing line with a long lower shadow on very high volume which is bullish. Looks like AMD may have capitulated this morning. Next level of resistance is the gap just below $38.00 aligned with the 50 and 20 MA.



YHOO - Formed a bullish engulfing pattern and closed on its highs. Looks poised to go to $32.00 from a close of $31.00



RIMM - Another bullish engulfing pattern coming out of a bullish flag pattern. It is challenging its post NTP settlement high of $83.00 and could break it on the open. Next level of resistance is $84.50.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/14/2006 09:28:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture


The Nasdaq carved out a bullish engulfing pattern and closed well above its 50 day MA on relatively good volume. The SOX finally woke up and put up some pretty good numbers and lead the tach sectors to a small victory for the bulls. All major tech sectors were in the green today even internets. On the 60 minute chart it looks like we have just broken to the upside from an inverted H&S bottom. If so, we can expect a retest of the breakout point and 40 points on a measured move from 2280. Today's NDX winners are JNPR, ATVI and PTEN. Even GOOG was in the top five.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/14/2006 05:02:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - CREE
Very similar to the ERTS trade I posted earlier except CREE was a continuation long breakout and ERTS was a long off of a bottom. Both were posted in my watchlist last night. The play is a break of yesterday's high. I noticed that CREE had a failed breakout yesterday afternoon. Today's action was a total success. I exited 50% of the positions at the 10-10:15 reversal hour and I was stopped out on the remainder.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/14/2006 04:52:00 PM 0 comments




ERTS - The Trade
Here is the ERTS trade, executed as per last night's watchlist. Notice it has since come back in hard and rallyed again. It will be interesting to see how it finishes.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/14/2006 01:03:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Long: CREE, ERTS, AFFX + RIMM triggered as well

Update 11:12 - 50% of all positions closed in the 10:00 - 10:15 reversal period. AFFX and RIMM have since been closed completely on lower highs. Charts later.

Update 12:30 - Stopped out of ERTS. Stops are wonderful in cases like this. ERTS has tanked, giving back all of this morning's gains on high volume in just 20 minutes.

Update 3:11 - Stopped out of CREE.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/14/2006 09:40:00 AM 0 comments




Monday, March 13, 2006Watchlist

PIXR

MCHP

CREE

SPLS

ERTS

CMED

I'm also carrying over RIMM and NVDA on my watchlist for tomorrow.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/13/2006 11:44:00 PM 0 comments




AFFX - Bottom Feeding
AFFX looks ready to bounce after a deep correction. Buy on a break of two day consolidation high $31.36. The intial target is $32.10 and the second target is $33.30 (gap resistance). Notice the positive divergence of the RSI on the 60 minute chart above.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/13/2006 08:38:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home