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发表于 2009-3-21 10:36
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Tuesday, October 03, 2006Technical Trade Ideas - Digital River Inc. (NASDAQ:DRIV)
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Posted by Jamie at 10/03/2006 09:57:00 PM 0 comments 
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Test of 2225 Support
The NASDAQ gapped down on the open, quickly hit 2225 support, and managed to rally until midday. All tech sectors participated led by internets and networking, but the SOX couldn't even manage a gap fill. The Nasdaq did not carve out a reversal bar so we don't really have any direction for tomorrow, however, based on how we finished, I'm guessing that we either consolidate some more, or creep up a little higher. I expect that we will manage a lower high before the selling resumes. So with that in mind, I will start taking profits if the NASDAQ approaches the 2257-2260 area. Tomorrow's economic indicators are Factory Orders and ISM at 10:00 and crude inventories at 10:30.
Meanwhile, the DOW finally hit its overrated milestone and closed at a new all time closing high.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/03/2006 08:24:00 PM 0 comments
Trade of the Day - The Andersons, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ANDE)
 As per last night's watch list, ANDE fell out of its bearish flag on the open by way of a gap down. Because it is not very liquid, it was a bit of a struggle to get in. I had an overall target of $30.00 but I knew it would find some midday support at last week's low around $31.50 so I covered 50% of my position as price fell into that price area. I was a little disappointed with the depth of the bounce and actually had to move my stop back to break-even. I managed to hold on and cover the balance into the close.
 I was hoping we could regain the 50 period MA and close above $32.00 when I took this long entry on HANS. However, it just didn't have any traction and couldn't score more than a tag so I let it go at $31.50.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/03/2006 07:34:00 PM 7 comments
Pre-Market
AKAM Target Raised - Jefferies raises their 2007 ests and tgt on AKAM to $59 from $47, saying the co is a clear beneficiary of an unprecedented level of demand for content distribution services. Firm says the co has no direct competition and execution has been solid, and several upcoming Windows releases could produce upside in the short- to medium-term.
CPU Shortage - Digitimes reports unexpectedly strong demand in the notebook market has resulted in CPU shortages, sending notebook makers scrambling to secure CPU supply for the fourth-quarter high season, according to industry sources. Some notebook makers have described the gravity of the shortages by saying they may have to "beg" daily for CPU supply, the sources claimed. A weak notebook market in the first half of this year caused notebook makers and CPU suppliers Intel (INTC) and AMD to take a cautious approach for the fourth quarter, the sources explained. But demand is picking up unexpectedly fast, tightening CPU supply, the sources added. Intel products that are currently in short supply include some in the Core 2 Duo (Merom) series, some in the Celeron M line, and the Yonah T2250 and T2050, the sources revealed.
MRVL Update - FBR notes yesterday after the bell, MRVL negatively preannounced its F3Q(Oct)07 quarter. The main culprit appears to be inventory, particularly in the hard drive space, due to the PC slowdown that started in 1H, and exacerbated by the STX / MXO merger. Net, firm says not a big surprise, although it is notable that the co chose to throw in the towel with still a month to go in the quarter. Firm says the comment in MRVL's release which leaves them with concern is the co's view that hard drive shipments are weaker than seasonal in the quarter. Firm says it appears that MRVL is blaming the miss at least in part on weaker hard drive sell through in F3Q, which would be a point of concern since the semiconductor build for PC appears to have been seasonally normal thus far. Firm says given all of the hard drive specific issues going on right now, they are hesitant to use hard drive weakness to make a negative call on PC sell through, however. Firm cuts their tgt to $19 from $23 on lower ests... BWS Financial notes the news of the restatement has a more significant impact on the shares of MRVL since MRVL is already late in filing their second quarter 10-Q. Firm says restatement of financials from 2000 on could present a challenge for the co in meeting NASDAQ listing requirements before the shares are delisted. Firm believes this poses as a short-term overhang on MRVL shares that is likely to prevent the shares from making much of an advance. Firm is reducing their ests accordingly, but believe that the slowdown in the hard disk industry is only temporarily, as demand for personal computers is expected to increase with the release of Windows Vista and new processors from Intel (INTC)... Thomas Weisel notes HDD is the cause of near-term woes for MRVL. Firm believes this is because of WDC and notebook customers. Firm notes co is expecting higher G&A costs because of the stock option review. Firm lowers Q3 ests to $515 mln and $0.13 from $582 mln and $0.19. For Y07, est go to $2.19 bln and $0.74 from $2.28 bln and $0.82. Firm believes the excess inventory situation may be short term in nature and expects a resumption of growth in F4Q07.
BRCM - Co announces that a federal judge today ruled that Qualcomm (QCOM 34.66) was not entitled to the injunction it requested. The judge characterized Qualcomm's requested relief as "light years beyond" what would be appropriate. Broadcom also announced two new initiatives in its legal fight against QCOM regarding cell phone technology.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/03/2006 07:51:00 AM 0 comments
Monday, October 02, 2006Technical Trade Ideas - ANDE, HANS, JOYG
 Click on charts to enlarge.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/02/2006 10:18:00 PM 4 comments
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bears Take Over
 The NASDAQ opened weak on an AAPL downgrade and the QCOM/BRCM patent battle. A small rally mid-morning just set things up for a bigger slide in the afternoon. So the bears have stepped in and it remains to be seen how deep this pullback will be. MRVL is out AH warning on Q3 revenues which are expected to be down 10% from Q2. They also noted that FS will have to restated due to stock options. BRCM is down about 1 pt. in sympathy with MRVL. So I'm expecting more selling tomorrow morning.
We carved out a wide range bearish candlestick and closed below the rising 10 day EMA. Our next level of support is 2225, roughly in line with the rising 20 day EMA.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/02/2006 07:47:00 PM 0 comments
Trade of the Day - QUALCOMM, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:QCOM)
 As indicated last night, I shorted the QQQQ's at $40.50 and I'm swinging 50% of my position into tomorrow. But the trade of the day was a short on QCOM which fell out of its narrow trading range (daily view) in early action (another patent battle in the wireless sector QCOM vs. BRCM). I waited to see how it consolidated at the 10:00 reversal time and shorted when it took out support at $35.49. I covered after a 1 pt. gain in mid-afternoon.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/02/2006 07:27:00 PM 0 comments
Pre-Market
AAPL currently trading at $75.10 from a close of $76.98 due to a downgrade.
Citigroup downgrades Apple (AAPL
76.98) to Hold from Buy based on valuation and saying recent checks suggest that Apple is unlikely to introduce a new video iPod before the holiday season...
Also noted in Barron's this weekend:
Barron's reports there is still room for Apple (AAPL) shares to run up a bit more before Christmas. While they won't know for certain until quarterly results are posted on Oct. 18, it looks like late-summer computer sales were very solid, says hardware analyst Charlie Wolf of Needham & Co. "Based on what I've been hearing, my estimate of Mac shipments is most likely low for September," Wolf tells Barron's. That forecast called for 1.5 mln Macs to be sold in the September quarter, versus 1.2 mln in the corresponding 2005 period. Their bullish call was based largely on the promise of robust sales for revamped Macintosh desktops and notebooks, which have been priced more competitively than ever and now can easily run Windows, as well as Apple's own operating systems, owing to the co's pragmatic switch to Intel (INTC) processors. Wolf's thesis is that the ability to directly use Windows will boost the switch rate to Macs from Windows-based PCs. Previously, he had assumed that the switch rate wouldn't jump until the new Leopard operating system (OS 10.5) was shipped, together with a commercial version of Boot Camp (the software that allows Windows to run on non-Intel-powered Macs), which now seems unlikely until 1H07. However, "Apple has already begun to market the Mac's dual-operating-system capability, even though Boot Camp is still in beta tests," says Wolf, who has a target price of 90 on the stock. Mac sales -- especially of notebooks used by students -- appear to have been robust in the quarter ended in September. Apple promoted MacBook sales by throwing free iPods into the deal. Ironically, the recent success of the MacBook probably has more to do with the price cuts and the machines' appealing design than with the ability to run Windows. Once Boot Camp arrives, however, Mac sales will gain even more momentum, Wolf asserts. (courtesey of Briefing.com)
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Posted by Jamie at 10/02/2006 07:54:00 AM 2 comments
Sunday, October 01, 2006Equifax Inc. (Public, NYSE:EFX)
 After gapping up on Sept. 8th and carving out a wide range bullish stick, EFX has consolidated its gain in the upper half of that day's trading range. After tagging the rising 10 day EMA on the 22nd, it has formed a series of higher lows hugging the MA as it continues to rise. Resistance is $37.12. Long on a high volume break of resistance with a preliminary target of $38.50. This setup may take a few more days to develop.
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Posted by Jamie at 10/01/2006 11:07:00 PM 0 comments
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bearish Engulfing Pattern
 Friday's action was long overdue. This rally needs to consolidate before earnings season starts. The NASDAQ carved out a bearish engulfing pattern after edging up higher earlier in the week. The session opened with some profit taking, consolidated midday, and the selling resumed in the afternoon and into the close. The SOX paced the way down, followed by networking. Hardware (RIMM) gained 7.5 points or 2.14% on the session, almost all of which transpired in the pre-market. The NDX winners were RIMM and NIHD, both of which gapped up on the open but closed at or near their lows for the day (bearish sign).
 The weekly timeframe of the NASDAQ shows that we have rallied back to the broken trendline, however, we have yet to recapture it. In my mind, this will require further momentum propelled by a strong earnings season. A closing target of 2290-2300 would bring us back above the trendline from our current threshold at 2258.
The QQQQ 60 minute timeframe is signaling a pullback. Rounded tops are bearish because they imply an over supply. A potential short trade is setting up on a high volume break of $40.50 (preliminary target $39.75 - $39.50)
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Posted by Jamie at 10/01/2006 08:27:00 AM 4 comments
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