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发表于 2009-3-21 10:56
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Tuesday, August 08, 2006Trade of the Day - Research In Motion NASDAQ (RIMM)
 As per last night's watch list, I took a long position in RIMM as a continuation play following yesterday's late day trendline retest. I waited for the third bar to trade above the reversal bar's close before entering the trade. A modest gain.
I also entered a long in NVDA on a break of the first 15 min. high. After gapping up on the open, I was hoping for a retest of $25.00, but it never got past $24.85. Another modest gainer.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/08/2006 08:10:00 PM 2 comments 
NASDAQ Technical Picture
 An extremely slow day leading into the Fed policy announcement which was, after all this waiting, an anti climax. The pause itself was already priced in and the modest changes or lack of clarity to the accompanying policy statement left the markets in an unsettled state. So they did a quick head fake and then sold-off. The NASDAQ closed just 8 points shy of its lower pivot point with most major tech sectors closing in the red, the lone exception being internets.
After hours, CSCO beat by $0.02 on higher revenues and better margins and issued slightly higher guidance. NDX futures are up 7 points in AH trade. YHOO is also up in AH on news of a new search ad ranking system.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/08/2006 07:36:00 PM 0 comments
Blogger Problems Again :(
I can't post any images at the moment so I will try again later tonight.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/08/2006 07:29:00 PM 0 comments
Scanning for Potential Long Candidates
The first scan I run when looking for potential long candidates is criteria is NASDAQ stocks priced between $20 -$100, trading above their 10, 20, and 50 MAs with an average daily volume of at least 1M shares. The second scan I run is names that pop up on both lists. As you have probably already guessed, tonight's scans did not result in a large number of matches. However, there are a few noteworthy ones to add to tomorrow's watchlist.
 RIMM looks like a potential double bottom breakout candidate. It has positive divergence in the RSI and MACD indicators. More volume could move prices up above $67.50.
PAAS has had a nice run here and would be a good long setup on a pullback to $20.
Other names still well positioned to move higher: AKAM, NVDA, GENZ.
N.B. - A free seven day trial to Trade-Ideas Pro is available through the affiliate program by scrolling down the right hand side bar of this blog.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/08/2006 07:22:00 AM 2 comments
Monday, August 07, 2006Blogger Problems Again
I can't seem to load any images at the moment so I will try posting the watch list in the morning.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/07/2006 11:43:00 PM 0 comments
NASDAQ Technical Picture - Narrow Range Trading Leading into the Fed
 A narrow range day on decisively lower volume ahead of tomorrow's Fed policy statement. The NAZ shed 12.5 points and all major tech sectors ended the session in the red. I expect we'll see a lot more days like today as earnings wind down and we head into the real dog days of August, which is traditionally a very lackluster trading month.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/07/2006 08:46:00 PM 0 comments
Trade of the Day - F5 Networks Inc. NASDAQ: (FFIV)
 I've been wanting to short FFIV for quite some time. Today it gapped down on the open and at 10:00 started consolidating. During the lengthy consolidation each 15 minute bar made a lower high, so I decided to short on the 5th 15 minute bar for a low risk entry. My stop was just above the high of the second 15 min. bar. I covered 50% as price started to bounce off of the $43.00 level. I held the balance until near the end of the session as the market started to push up from its afternoon lows.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/07/2006 08:21:00 PM 0 comments
Watch List - LRCX, OSIP, CEPH, ILMN
 LRCX - Just a reminder!
 OSIP is playing hard to get. I'll be watching it closely tomorrow to see if this triangle on the 15 minute view can resolve itself.
 Click on charts for larger views and chart notes.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/07/2006 12:19:00 AM 0 comments
Sunday, August 06, 2006Pivot Point Analysis
Pivot point analysis was first made popular by the floor traders of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) decades ago.
Its widespread use today makes it the number choice by Wall St. floor traders to gauge potential pivotal price levels.
This trading technique’s basic model calculates two levels of support and resistance and one primary pivot point.
The model is designed to work most effectively on high volume trading instruments with a wide daily range.
Basic Pivot Formula
P = (H + L + C) / 3
R1 = (P x 2) - L
S1 = (P x 2) - H
S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Where P= pivot point; H = high of the day; L = low of the day; C = close; R = resistance; and S= support.
Here is an example using Thursday’s data to manage Friday’s trade for Akamai Technologies Inc. NASDAQ (AKAM):
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42.17
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41.23
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39.52
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38.58
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36.87
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I have created a simple Excel file to update these on daily basis which involves entering the H, L, and C for each of my watch list stocks on any given day. When I plot the points on my charts, I use the closest visual P, S, and R levels. These are sometimes off by 10-20 cents from the calculated figures.
So enough with the theory, how do we apply this to intraday trading?
I find that these work very well in trading ranges and during tight consolidations within trending moves.
After closing at a multi-year high on Monday, AKAM consolidated its gains for two and half days before breaking out again Thursday afternoon and closing near its highs.
This type of momentum is usually followed by more gains on the next open.
In order to get an indication of how high we can expect AKAM to trade the next morning, we plot our pivot points on the chart Thursday night based on Thursday’s H, L and C.
As you can see from the chart below, 4 of the 5 pivot points came into play on Friday.
R2 was just above the high off of the open.
The break of R1 indicated that the pullback would be more than just a minor consolidation and meant that the position had to be sold and a potential short taken by aggressive traders. P was a good place to cover at least 50% of the short position. The doji with the long lower shadow at S1 was good place to cover the balance and initiate a long position as it also coincided with the 7 day trendline.
 For longer-term traders and investors, pivot points can also be determined visually without a calculator. A pivot point is a point from which price turns and changes direction. If a specific price repeatedly causes a change in direction it becomes a primary pivot point and should be monitored closely by swing and position traders. Here is an example with NVDA, whose primary pivot point of $25.00 is in play (blue arrows are pivots).
Try the pivot point formula on highly liquid stocks with a minimum price of $20.00 and see if it can help guide you through the intraday price movements.
Of course it makes sense to practice this approach before committing actual capital to it.
On a personal level, pivot trading has added discipline and confidence to my trading and has eliminated many costly errors.
This post was created in response to a query from student trader Thomas. I know this only answers part of your question Thomas, but it’s a start. In the next chapter I will explain how I find and trade breakout points.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/06/2006 09:40:00 PM 2 comments
Friday, August 04, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Jobs Data Result in a Failed Breakout
 The jobs data released at 8:30 this morning were below estimates and the pre-market action was very bullish. The Qs rallied into resistance of the 50 MA in pre-market, paused and consolidated in an orderly fashion. When the market opened they took out the pre-market high at 9:44 and things were looking great. At 9:45, they reversed sharply. Within minutes, it was clear that we had a failed breakout and it was time to exit all longs. Breakout failures can be brutal because they almost always result in steep pullbacks. A real breakout always rallies into the 10:00 reversal time, so when the second 15 minute bar of the Qs starts to penetrate the first 15 minute bar by more the 25%, its time to tighten the stops.
My theory is that the rally we had yesterday afternoon was in anticipation of the jobs data, and today's failure was a fade the news type scenario. However, by the end of the session, we suffered little technical damage. Volume was in line with recent sessions and we're still hanging on to the 20 day EMA. Going into next week, our pivot points are still intact - 2100 and 2050, with intermediate support at 2075.
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Posted by Jamie at 8/04/2006 10:08:00 PM 0 comments
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