一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Pre-Market - Thursday November 30th
Indication on RMBS is that news released last night about PS3 inclusion was already well known. Stock continues to go up anyway. Not making a call, just letting you know the situation. Stock now trading at $22.68.

Jefferies notes that the Internet and New Media segment has had a strong performance in the last few weeks, with many stocks approaching their price targets, driven by early signs of positive seasonality and good 3Q results. The firm continues to see upside in Aquantive (AQNT 23.38), Google (GOOG 484.65) and Yahoo (YHOO 27.04); they are buyers of VCLK, NFLX, RATE, VPRT and SFLY on pullback.

Yet another AAPL target increase - Needham raises their tgt on AAPL to $115 from $90 based on a more realistic reading of the switch rates among Windows users that should ensue from the Mac's forthcoming ability to run Windows.

Cautious on semis - Susquehanna say with semi equipment stocks continuing to perform relatively well despite negative data flow, they review their near-term cautious stance on the group (based on deteriorating industry fundamentals). Firm notes that inventory issues still linger across the semiconductor landscape, with the problem particularly acute in microprocessors (where the INTC/AMD price war continues), and analog (where the handset and high-performance analog markets seem poised to continue to disappoint relative to outsize growth expectations). They expect this capacity overhang to ripple quickly through the supply chain in the form of more severe wafer start reductions in C4Q06/C1Q07 at foundries such as TSM and UMC, and believe that plans to idle tools or even entire production lines over the year-end holiday season, as well as the Lunar New Year, are already in place. Firm notes that NVLS is their favorite short ahead of mid-quarter update on Dec. 4.

So far same store sales are disappointing as a whole.

Courtesy of Briefing.com

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Posted by Jamie at 11/30/2006 07:55:00 AM 0 comments




Wednesday, November 29, 2006Support and Resistance

A few days ago, David asked me for some knowledge sources regarding support and resistance and I recommended Stockcharts.com - chart school as well as two books that cover the subject thoroughly:

Martin Pring

John Murphy

Here's another good



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Posted by Jamie at 11/29/2006 08:35:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Support_Resistance



Trade of the Day - None
Not for lack of opportunity. I was stalking the metals sector early on and was hoping to get long Titanium Metals Corp. (NYSE:TIE) after the gap consolidation. Unfortunately, the consolidation took too long and I wasn't around when the break took place. Here are the charts - 15 minute and the 5 minute, the latter accentuates volume contraction during consolidation and expansion on the price break. Also check out the charts for IPS and X. Now that tech is losing its leadership, XLB might offer some strength.


Notice how sharply TIE fell after it failed to stay above $31.00. I try to always move my stop just above the dollar number in late day trading because when price fails at the dollar level, it can cause a lot of slippage.



On another note, if anybody followed up on my pre-market post - (NASDAQ:MSCS) - Insider Buying - here's the chart:



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Posted by Jamie at 11/29/2006 07:08:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gapper, NR7



Pre-Market - Wednesday November 29th
Another slow news day.

Momos in play:
AAPL up in pre-market - another target raised, this time at Bear Stearns; NYX sellers pushing this one down on JP Morgan downgrade.

Very nice-sized insider buys posted last night for MSCS, it'll be one to keep an eye on again today. CEO buys 115k shares in the $13.43 to $13.60 range. President of the co buys 20k shares at $13.52. We see the insider buys as important, given that we see MSCS as a value play, and a possible acquisition. Thinking this could be the day the stock closes above resistance at $14. - Courtesy of Briefing.com




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Posted by Jamie at 11/29/2006 08:11:00 AM 0 comments




Tuesday, November 28, 2006Trade of the Day - Continental Airlines, Inc. (Public, NYSE:CAL)

The first chart is a wide range view of CAL over the last few weeks. The blue lines are key support and resistance levels. Of course, when support is broken, it becomes resistance. So yesterday's support is today's resistance.

The second chart is a closer view of the same 15 minute timeframe. CAL gapped down on the open and quickly fell towards the gap open support level dating back to November 15th. The next bar signaled indecision and the third bar moved slightly higher. Volume on the second and third bars was very bullish, so I took a low risk, long entry as the fourth bar opened up. My target was a gap fill. As soon as price tagged the downsloping 20 period EMA, I took my profit.

I shorted CAL on a lower high about an hour later. Midday it formed a perfect hammer, signaling a potential reversal. I immediately, tightened my stop to breakeven just in case and I was stopped out on the next bar. I waited to see if another long entry would setup, but decided to call it a day when the stock came into a third wave of weakness. The chop chop game is a no win situation when it comes to trading.

hefeiddd

Monday, November 27, 2006Technical Trade Idea - Akamai Technologies Public, NASDAQ:AKAM)


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Posted by Jamie at 11/27/2006 10:59:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Technical



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Profit Taking was Overdue
The bulls, myself included, have had a nice run lately, and now its time for a healthy dose of profit taking. The markets and most stocks on my radar finished the session on their lows, so I expect that we are in for more selling tomorrow. Wednesday's hanging man foreshadowed a correction but who was paying attention. All tech sectors participated in the slide paced by networking, hardware, and disk drives. The NASDAQ was the hardest hit of the majors, not surprisingly as it led the way up, it will also lead down. However, this is a long overdue corrective pullback to make room for the Christmas rally ;).



Tomorrow's economic calendar includes durable orders at 8:30 EST, followed by Consumer confidence and existing home sales at 10:00.

Below is a 60 minute view of the NASDAQ with key support/resistance levels. Also, look for divergence of the RSI and MACD ahead of a potential reversal (bounce).




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Posted by Jamie at 11/27/2006 08:19:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - Continental Airlines, Inc. (Public, NYSE:CAL)
The markets have been overbought for quite some time and today was the day for some major profit taking. There was no real catalyst going into the session, but the first few bars were very persuasive. I noticed that all of the recent momo stocks were getting beat up pretty bad, so I took my biggest winner on the month and started stalking it for a low risk, short entry. I should have probably shorted it just before it broke through $44.00 as it would have been easier, but I managed to short at $43.85 with an initial stop at $44.25. I missed my planned exit near $42.00, so I covered on a minor bounce at $42.35. Notice how the selling took place on relatively high volume throughout most of the day, compared to the low volume accompanying the mid afternoon bounce.

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Posted by Jamie at 11/27/2006 07:20:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Momentum, Short



Pre-Market - Monday November 27th

ThinkEquity raised their tgt on AAPL to $110 from $100, saying their proprietary "Black Friday" survey of Apple Retail stores across the nation indicates likely upside to their Retail Store rev est of $1.45 bln for 1Q07. Firm believes that AAPL's Retail Store is a clear differentiator and a significant catalyst for further CPU share gains and profit margin expansion.

Barron's mentions possible takeover targets in the semiconductor industry: Potential candidates in the tech sector, according to CreditSights, include cash-rich analog semiconductor companies like Linear Technology (LLTC), Maxim Integrated (MXIM) and Analog Devices (ADI), as well as Altera (ALTR) and Xilinx (XLNX).

Soliel downgrades X (US Steel) to Hold from Buy based on valuation. The firm says while a possible breakup value could approach $100 a share, it is their experience that companies do not trade at the break up value and possible acquirers won't pay full value for a company.

Google Overvalued? Barron's reports shares of Google (GOOG) appear due for a correction based on slowing growth and bloated expenses. Analysts on average expect the co to earn $13.70 in 2007, up from an estimated $10.31 this year. That's a prospective gain of 33%, which looks great until compared with the 81% increase in earnings that Google is on track to produce in 2006. In either case, those estimates are inflated. They ignore about $1 a share of stock-option expense, while giving the co about $1 a share of credit for the interest earned on its $10.4 bln cash hoard. If analysts accounted for option expense and ignored interest income, '07 estimates would shrink to roughly $11.70 and the p-e multiple would climb to 43. Also, the price advertisers are willing to pay for search keywords has fallen. The average price paid to buy a search word across the Web in the second quarter -- $1.27 -- has declined 11% from the start of the year and 34% from the peak of $1.93 in April 2005. So far, companies have made up the difference on volume, but it's a trend worth watching. Fred Hickey, editor of the High-Tech Strategist newsletter and a Barron's Roundtable member, is convinced the consumer is slowing. He expects the slowdown to hurt Google's advertising and stock price, too. "I know (Google stock) isn't worth $500 a share," he says.

WSJ highlights ENER, reporting that Stanford R. Ovshinsky has spent 40 years -- and millions of dollars in backing from various partners -- pursuing his dream. He wanted to build a huge machine that would make giant sheets of material that can generate solar power. Today, Mr. Ovshinsky, 84 years old, finds himself running his factory at full capacity and overwhelmed with orders. His company, Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), is the largest U.S.-owned maker of photovoltaic materials, which convert sunlight to electricity. The co is a pioneer in an exploding global industry selling $15 bln a year of what's called "PV." Mr. Ovshinsky, a thin, nattily dressed inventor who never progressed beyond high school, is a big reason why the U.S. remains in this high-tech race. He has a six-month backlog of PV orders, selling about half his production to Germany, and is building three new plants. His PV is thinner, cheaper and more flexible than that of many competitors, and can be used directly as a roofing material.

Goldman adds Celanese (CE) to their Conviction Buy List. The firm also removes Air Products (APD).

[url=]HOFF - Horizon Offshore upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James- maintain [/url]

hefeiddd

Friday, November 24, 2006Trade of the Day - Rambus Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:RMBS)
My strategy going into this holiday shortened session was a little different than usual. Rather than running a gapper scan at 10:00, I wanted to be in my trade by 10:00. Also, because of the pre-market selloff, I was looking for stocks that would bounce off of support shortly after the opening gap down.

After seeing Tom C's trade of the week on Trader X blog last week, I added RMBS to my short-list of momo stocks with potential for further upside. In the early going this morning, I was tempted to long CAL, but at the last minute decided to go with RMBS because it had a cleaner setup, ie. it gapped down to a well defined support level and shortly after the open, it offered a low risk entry on the 5 minute timeframe.


The wider range view, shows how well defined the support/resistance parameters were going into the trade.


My entry was a break of Wednesday's high. My original stop was just 25 cents. I added to my position after RMBS consolidated the first leg up. This was done on a one minute timeframe where the break was much more obvious than on this 5 minute chart. I then moved my stop up to $22.10 which was the low during consolidation. I exited 50% when last week's resistance was tested and the balance was sold into the close. All in all, I applied low risk dummy trading rules to a 5 minute timeframe in the context of clearly defined support/resistance levels.
If you get a chance, look at the daily timeframe and notice how Wednesday's stick looks like NR7 - range contraction/range expansion.


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Posted by Jamie at 11/24/2006 07:38:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Dummy



Wednesday, November 22, 2006Dummy Trade of the Day - Yahoo! Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:YHOO)
YHOO showed up on my gapper scan along with a number of retailers. I decided to stick with the more familiar name. After consolidating the opening gap and successfully testing yesterday's high as support, YHOO formed a bullish piercing line candlestick reversal pattern on the fourth 15 min. bar. Aggressive buyers could have entered on the 5th bar, but I waited until the OR (opening range) high was taken out. My entry was on the 7th bar, following the NR7 bar. My exit was a little premature. I guess I wasn't expecting such strength into the close on the pre-holiday session.

I took a very low risk entry on one of my favorite momo stocks this afternoon. After a volatile morning session, CAL settled into some NR trade along its slightly upward sloping 10 period MA. In mid afternoon, I felt a sudden uptick in volume on a NR bar and decided that if CAL was going to test its morning high, I wanted to be there. My risk was only about 10 cents and my reward was half a point.




Tuesday, November 21, 2006Dummy Trade of the Day - NVIDIA Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:NVDA)
NVDA traded up in pre-market but started showing a lot of weakness just prior to the open. This is a DOA (dead on arrival) setup. Short on a break of the pre-market low with a stop just a penny above the pre-market high. So the initial risk was about 30 cents. My target was $35.60 which matches up with support and the 10 day EMA on the daily timeframe. By mid-afternoon that target started to look too optimistic so I tightened my stop and was stopped out at $37.00.

The AAPL long was a break of the third bar high. This is another stock I was watching in pre-market. The first two bars were doji like (indecision). The third bar rallied and closed on its high so I went long on a break of the third bar high. I had to leave my desk for an extended period of time so I decided it was safe to move my stop to break-even as price approached $88.00. Big mistake. If my entry was correct and I believe it was, I should have left my stop below the low of the previous bar (third bar). That would have saved the trade. So a nice strategic, dummy entry and a real dumb, dummy stop.




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Posted by Jamie at 11/21/2006 07:44:00 PM 6 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gapper



Monday, November 20, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bullish Low Volume Consolidation
Except for a very bullish semiconductor sector, the overall market felt sluggish. Low volume consolidation is bullish, but I'm starting to see some negative divergence on the lower timeframe. No economic data tomorrow.




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Posted by Jamie at 11/20/2006 09:16:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



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hefeiddd

Dummy Trade of the Day - Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (Public, NASDAQ:MRVL)
Both of these gapper trade setups came from my gapper scan. MRVL gapped up and formed a NR body with a short upper and long lower shadow. The second stick was almost a bullish engulfing bar. The third stick rallied into resistance and pulled back slightly. I decided to long a break of the third bar high as I didn't feel that MRVL was going to consolidate and I was willing to risk 25 cents. I booked a 50% profit on weakness midday and held the balance into the close. When MRVL breached it rising 10 period MA in the afternoon, I was getting ready to sell. However, it immediately regained it on the next bar, so I decided to hang on.

KNOT had a bearish opening bar with a long upper shadow. It spent the better part of the morning consolidating sideways with small, tight candlesticks. Shortly after 11:00, it carved out an NR7 stick on extremely low volume. The next bar ticked up on higher volume and that was my cue to get long. The rising 10 period MA was just underfoot and added to my confidence in the entry. I took my exit on the anticipation of a hanging man reversal.




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Posted by Jamie at 11/20/2006 06:53:00 PM 5 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gapper, NR7



Sunday, November 19, 2006Anatomy of a Gap Up Reversal - Laboratory Corp. of America (Public, NYSE:LH) 10.03.2006
A reader asks if LH was a good long setup following the NR7 bar identified in the chart above.

I'm going to begin, perhaps unfairly, by saying that my success rate with long entries on stocks that swoon from extremely large opening gap ups, is less than 40%. If a stock doesn't start showing signs of a reversal by 10:30-10:45, it is not going to stay on my gapper watchlist. After last week's ISIS trade (posted on the blog Monday Nov. 13th), I have pretty much decided to stay away from these types of setups. Notwithstanding that little preamble, let's analyse this setup of LH from October 3rd.

Despite the high volume pullback, LH did hold its rising 10 period MA as support on a closing basis. It also carved out a bullish engulfing pattern around noon as price started to lift from the 10 period MA after some lengthy sideways action. So far, we were looking at a potentially bullish reversal. The next move takes price up to $68.25 on higher volume. Notice that the high here fairly evenly matches the low of the second bar and creates a pivot point. This is followed by some more consolidation and a potential shallow rounded pullback before a bullish break of the pivot point. Midway, we get a NR7 bar followed by some movement upwards, but volume on the bar following the NR7 is not bullish. So if you had bought this bar, you are on notice of a possible failure when the next bar shows no continuation on lower volume.

Since my experience with these is fairly negative, I would recommend longing them only after confirmation. In this particular case, confirmation would have been a higher volume break of the pivot point. Notice how the pivot point was observed the next day as resistance.

After having invested the time to map out a trade that didn't get confirmed, you could have shorted it using the pivot point as your stop. The next support level was $67.00 giving a decent risk:reward ratio.

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Posted by Jamie at 11/19/2006 10:25:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gapper, NR7



Thursday, November 16, 2006Momentum Stock - Intraday Setup - ZOLL Medical Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:ZOLL)


Thanks to Misadventures for pointing this one out. At noon, there was a volume lull. The next bar moved to the top of the narrow channel on an uptick in volume. After that, momentum came back into the stock and it rallied steadily up until 3:30.

If you get into a position when the MA is too far away from price, you might get shaken out on the pullback.

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Posted by Jamie at 11/16/2006 08:28:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gapper, Volume



Dummy Trade of the Day - Network Appliance, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:NTAP)

I didn't have time to run any scans at work today, so all I managed was a quick scalp on NTAP as it paused for a quick consolidation midway through this rally. This is a 10 min. timeframe. Click on the chart for a larger view and you will notice how volume diminishes during the consolidation and immediately picks up as price moves forward. These are the little details to look for when trying to catch a move that's already underway.


Blogger Problems posting charts again tonight. In FireFox, my charts are cut off at the bottom and in Explorer I'm just getting blanks.

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Posted by Jamie at 11/16/2006 07:46:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Dummy



Wednesday, November 15, 2006Technical Trade Idea - CheckFree Corporation (Public NASDAQ:CKFR)


I am adding CKFR to my watchlist here. It looks like sellers can't move price any lower. Tuesday's NR7 bar was followed by a bullish engulfing bar yesterday. I'll buy a tradable pullback if support holds, or a breakout above yesterday's high. My short-term target is $40.00.

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Posted by Jamie at 11/15/2006 11:15:00 PM 5 comments
Labels: NR7, Technical



Groundhog Day - (NYSE:CAL) and (NASDAQ:GROW)
CAL gapped up on the open due to merger mania in the airline industry. I waited for a low risk NRB before my entry. I moved my stop to breakeven once it started testing the early morning resistance (blue line). However, CAL traded in a very narrow range for an hour and then broke through for a nice orderly, afternoon rally.


GROW opened strong and carved out a WRB followed by a narrow sideways consolidation, similar to yesterday. I entered on a break of the OR high. I took my exit when I noticed the hanging man reversal pattern starting to develop.
I don't know how much higher these two can go, but both names had stronger volume today than yesterday. I'd like to see them both pull back on the open tomorrow and setup one last long entry.



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Posted by Jamie at 11/15/2006 07:09:00 PM 6 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gapper, NRB



Tuesday, November 14, 2006Stock Tickr Interview with Tom C.
Don't miss Dave's interview with Tom C. from the Trader-X blog. BTW, the interview doesn't explain how Tom and X came to be collaborators. Just curious.

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Posted by Jamie at 11/14/2006 11:11:00 PM 4 comments




Momentum Stocks - Finding Low Risk, Intraday Setups - eFuture Information Technology Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:EFUT)

NYX - Friday's Action

EFUT - Today's Action

In response to a reader request, here is one way to play momentum stocks intraday. Momentum stocks usually consolidate the morning move midday and into early afternoon. Between 1:30 and 2:30 the volume declines as price comes into the rising 10 period EMA. Don't buy the first bounce off of the MA, wait until volume almost dries up and price narrows accordingly. Just when you feel the stock is barely moving, its time to place a buy order. The low of the last NRB before entry is almost always higher than the preceding NRB's low. If your entry is timed perfectly, you will feel the uptick in volume almost immediately. I usually set my stop about 5-10 cents below the 10 period EMA.

BTW, this is one of my favorite setups and I look for these after lunch on my gapper charts. My CAL trade today follows a similar pattern and risk level and my JOYG trade Friday afternoon was also comparable.

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Posted by Jamie at 11/14/2006 08:32:00 PM 6 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gapper, Momentum



Dummy Trade of the Day - U.S. Global Investors (Public, NASDAQ:GROW)
GROW was a low risk, consolidation breakout after it had digested the opening WRB for well over an hour. The consolidation took place on lower volume and the break had a noticeable uptick. I took my exit after GROW had carved out a lower high. It doesn't look like much on this chart but it netted 1.3 points.

CAL was low risk entry following a NRB with the support of the converging MAs. Volume picked up shortly after my entry and carried price up to $ 38.60 in four consecutive bars. It formed a tweezer top reversal pattern so I moved my stop up to $38.50.


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Posted by Jamie at 11/14/2006 07:12:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Dummy



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hefeiddd

Tuesday, November 14, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Low Volume Extension


For now, I'm going to stop fighting the tape. It seems that we just keep going higher. Yesterday's low volume rally was led by the $SOX which seems to be waking up all of a sudden. I'm assuming that the low volume is holiday related, with people taking off on both sides of the actual day. Yesterday's SOX rally felt like a dead cat bounce, but the P&F charts for both the NASDAQ (P&F target 2540) and the SOX (P&F target 544) are very bullish, so I'll go along with that.

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Posted by Jamie at 11/14/2006 07:27:00 AM 2 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Monday, November 13, 2006Dummy Trade of the Day - Continental Airlines, Inc. (Public, NYSE:CAL)
CAL gapped up again today and set up a nice long on a break of the OR high following a NRB. Long on the fourth bar. Despite two lengthy consolidation periods, there was never any reason to close the position until the end of the day as price never challenged the rising 10 period ema.

BTW, CAL traded up to $39.00 in AH, but I can't find any news on Briefing.com


HANS was a short setup after consolidation of the gap fade, but it found support at $26.00 and I lost my patience with it when it tried to rally in mid-afternoon.

ISIS was a failed breakout long at $12.5o. I was stopped out for a small loss.




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Posted by Jamie at 11/13/2006 06:33:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gapper
Under the Weather
I had planned to put together my follow-up post to "Trading Gaps Dummy Style" this weekend but a migraine got in the way. Hopefully, it will die soon so that I can get back to work.

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Posted by Jamie at 11/13/2006 08:00:00 AM 0 comments




Friday, November 10, 2006Dummy Trade of the Day - Continental Airlines, Inc. (Public, NYSE:CAL)
CAL was an NR7 range contraction/expansion trade that I planned to take on a break of the downsloping trendline. However, the opening gap was too wide, so I waited for a NR low risk entry following the doji consolidation of the second bar. My preliminary target was $36.56 and I moved my stop to $36.49 when it appeared that we might be able to go higher. A few minutes later my stop was hit.

JOYG was a low risk entry following a lengthy consolidation. The stock rallied into the close taking out morning resistance and challenging yesterday's high. I like these types of setups and look for them between 1:00 and 2:30 in the afternoon. After a strong move in the morning and a fairly orderly pullback, the stock forms a series of very NRBs and a shallow base. It usually starts to lift on an uptick in volume and often rallies into the close.

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Posted by Jamie at 11/10/2006 08:53:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gapper, NR7

hefeiddd

Thursday, November 09, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bull Trap?
The McClellan oscillator has carved out a series of lower highs and lower lows since mid-October and looks ready to swoon.

Last week a bear trap and now a bull trap. Get ready for some profit taking. We have negative divergence in the RSI and the ADX line has failed to confirm recent bullish momentum. We could be in for a sharp pullback in techland. Also, when a bellwether like CSCO reports great earnings, guides higher, and closes on its lows, it sends a bearish signal.



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Posted by Jamie at 11/09/2006 08:35:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Dummy Trade of the Day - U.S. Global Investors (Public, NASDAQ:GROW)
As I mentioned in the pre-market post this morning, despite the CSCO earnings, Iwasn't feeling bullish. I sort of had a feeling that the market was about to turn. However, I couldn't resist this dummy entry in GROW. My long entry was just above the pink segment and things moved along nicely for while. GROW made a higher high and started to consolidate. I didn't like the large spread in the stock so I decided to start bailing out before my stop was hit. I managed to get rid of most of my shares before price fell through support.

BRCM started to feel a little sluggish shortly after my long entry. Before I realized it, we had carved out a lower high and price started coming in fast. I managed little more than pocket change on this long. After lunch I decided that BRCM was setting up a short so I shorted on the first breach of support. My stop was set 22 cents away at the pink segment.

These were my only trades today. I don't like anticipating market turns. The ADLR trade did not setup as anticipated last night.




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Posted by Jamie at 11/09/2006 07:48:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gapper



Pre-Market
Semi Scorecard:

The CSCO semiconductor food chain should trade higher in reaction to the co's strong qtr and higher Q2 guidance, notably NETL (62% rev exposure), IDTI (20-24% rev exposure), BRCM, MRVL, ALTR, XLNX, PMCS and CY. In addition, both CY and BRCM have their analyst days today. BRCM will be the one to watch as the stock has been getting accumulated ahead of their analyst day in anticipation of encouraging commentary on market trends. We also note the co provided a nice surprise to analysts last year at their analyst day when they noted their markets remain strong and revs should be at the high end of previous forecasts. As a result, we would expect the stock to be very volatile in today's trading given the CSCO results and the potential for the co to make commentary about their guidance heading into Q4. CY typically recaps their guidance given on their earnings call and does not provide any updated guidance.

BofA raises their tgt on CSCO to $30 from $27 and sees more scope for upward revision to these above-Street ests, given that they continue to view sales headcount growth as the key to the stock. Firm was most impressed with better growth in Europe and Japan, with the important U.S. market still solid. Firm views the better than expected CSCO results and guidance as positive to its EMS partners: Celestica (CLS), approx 9% sales, high-end routers, security and optical, Jabil (JBL), approx 9% sales, mid-/high-end routers and switches, storage, and Solectron (SLR), 16% sales, mid/high-range switches, high-end routers, including CRS-1. They also believe CSCO results is positive for Flextronics (FLEX) who recently announced meaningful new wins at CSCO. Firm believes CSCO could become a top 10 customer and greater than 10% of sales for FLEX when the new programs are fully ramped.

Friedman Billings notes NVDA launched its new G80 high end GPU yesterday, on schedule and on time for both holiday sales and for the January Vista launch. Firm believes G80 sales will be a positive for NVDA's January and April quarters, due to both the upcoming Vista launch as well as due to their view that ATI/AMD is not likely to have a competing product available until March, leaving the high end of the market solely to NVDA during this time. Firm notes NVDA reports after the close tonight and expects meaningful upside to consensus ests.

UBS cuts their tgt on AMD to $23 from $26 saying AMD's slowing momentum on servers in Q3 has negative implications for gross margins, leading them to reduce their 2007 EPS est to $1.23 from $1.36. Furthermore the firm says AMD's focus on Dell (DELL) is leading to shortages in the channel which happen to be more profitable than its O.E.M business.

Courtesy of Briefing.com

P.S. Despite CSCO's positive earnings, I'm not feeling bullish this morning.


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Posted by Jamie at 11/09/2006 08:31:00 AM 0 comments




Wednesday, November 08, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bullish Bias Intact
Despite a lack of sector leadership, the market pushed to a modest new closing high. CSCO earnings AH were very bullish. My only concern is the lack of enthusiasm in the ADX (momentum) line.

Economic indicators before the bell tomorrow: Import/Export Prices, Initial Claims, and Trade Balance. Prelim. Michigan sentiment is set for 9:50 and wholesale inventories at 10:00.



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Posted by Jamie at 11/08/2006 11:10:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



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hefeiddd

Wednesday, November 08, 2006Dummy Trade of the Day - Cephalon, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CEPH)
My strategy going into today's session was 100% low risk, after yesterday's failed break, and the elections, I wasn't sure what to expect.


CEPH was a dummy, breakout setup. With intraday breakouts, I always expect a retest of the breakout point, and that's basically what happened with CEPH. Once the retest was out of the way, the stock moved quickly up to the $78.00 area. I decided to let it go as it consolidated the rally because today's market action was a little unpredictable and I wanted to preserve my profit.

BIDU was a low risk entry following a big move in the morning and a lengthy consolidation. As soon as price was well above $98.00, I moved my stop up to that point and shortly thereafter, I was stopped out.

ADLR was a low risk entry off of a higher low at the convergence point of all of the MAs. My target was $8.00, however, the stock swooned mid-afternoon (thought I was going to get scratched) and that delayed the proceedings. I managed to make $0.30 on it and will likely be trading it again tomorrow, possibly on a break of $8.00 with a target of $8.75.




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 11/08/2006 07:34:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Breakout, Dummy



Pre-Market
[url=]Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform Raymond James (31.98 ) ;[/url][url=]FFIV - F5 Networks trades to $66.00 in pre-mkt; downgrade at BMO Capital cited[/url][url=];[/url]

BIDU and eBay EachNet announced an agreement to collaborate in new ways that will enable each company to better serve their millions of users, merchants and advertisers in China. The multi-year agreement is focused on three areas of enhanced cooperation: Baidu will promote PayPal Beibao, PayPal's service in China, as the preferred online payment method on Baidu. In return, Baidu will become the exclusive provider of text-based search advertising on eBay EachNet, eBay's China subsidiary and a leading e-commerce company in China.

[url=]CEPH - [/url][url=]Cephalon: hearing RayJay upgrading to Strong Buy with a $90 tgt.. stock trading at $73.00

Courtesy of Briefing.com
[/url]

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 11/08/2006 08:15:00 AM 2 comments




Tuesday, November 07, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Failed Test of October High
Despite a strong open on high volume for both the SOX and the Qs, we failed to take out the October high on a closing basis. The odd thing about the SOX rally was that leadership came from a mostly deadbeat names like BRCM, ALTR, MXIM, MRVL, and AMAT.

Crude inventories tomorrow at 10:30, and CSCO
earnings AH.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 11/07/2006 09:09:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Stock Tickr Interview with Mercado de Estocastica
Dave's Stock Tickr interview series continues with an interesting profile of Mercado de Estocastica, otherwise known as Jason. Also check out Jason's blog. I read it every day.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 11/07/2006 08:15:00 PM 1 comments




Trade of the Day - Akamai Technologies Inc. NASDAQ (AKAM)
AKAM was a momentum play on the Xbox announcement. I noticed it was gapping up in pre-market and that resistance from the daily timeframe was in the area of $50.00. So I decided to play it on a break of the pre-market high. Given yesterday's big move and my target price, I didn't want to wait for a low risk entry.


After hearing the weak earnings reports from home builders this morning on CNBC, I had a pretty good idea that my technical long setup on EXP would not play out as planned. It opened lower and then rallied up on weak volume, carving out a lower high from yesterday's late afternoon high. I drew in a trendline to see if things would pop as price approached support. As price fell through the trendline, I decided to short EXP. I covered into the close.
For now, it looks like the stock will continue lower and maybe fill its earnings gap before coming back into play as a long.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 11/07/2006 07:44:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Momentum, Trendline

hefeiddd

Monday, November 06, 2006Technical Trade Ideas - Eagle Materials, Inc. (Public, NYSE:EXP)
EXP gapped up last week on blow out earnings. It has since consolidated its gap by carving out a shallow bullish base (U shape) at $40.00 resistance. The ADX momentum indicator has a very bullish steep curve as well. Look for a high volume break of $40.00. The short-term target is $42.50, followed by $47.50.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 11/06/2006 09:59:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Technical



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bear Trap
It was no surprise that we rallied today given the flurry of M&A and the lack of any negative economic data. As noted here last night, we had positive divergence on the intraday timeframe and the selling late last week was tepid. The magnitude of the move, lead by technology, was due largely to a short squeeze. Volume was slightly higher on the session, however, in order for the bulls to reclaim control, we need more momentum.

No major economic data tomorrow. Earnings of interest this week: CSCO on Wednesday AH and ENER Thursday AH.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 11/06/2006 09:28:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Dummy Trade of the Day - Continental Airlines, Inc. (Public, NYSE:CAL)
CAL gapped up on the open on high volume and then carved out a shallow u shaped base. I went long as soon as resistance at $35.08 was taken out. My target was a gap fill at $36.00. It was easily reached over the next four bars.

TWLL was highlighted in last night's Technical Trade Ideas as a potential breakout candidate. Today it opened strong, but shortly after it pulled back to its rising 10 period EMA in an orderly fashion. I took a low risk entry as price observed the EMA as support. I miscalculated my 50% Fibonacci extension at $18.25 and that's where I took my exit.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 11/06/2006 07:24:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper



Sunday, November 05, 2006Blogger Labels
Blogger labels have recently been added to this blog. You can use labels for search purposes by typing the label in the left section of the nav bar (top of the blog) where it indicates "search this blog". For example, if you want to search for dummy charts, type in dummy and all of the posts referring to dummy setups will appear.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 11/05/2006 10:28:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Labels



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hefeiddd

Sunday, November 05, 2006Technical Trade Ideas - Techwell, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:TWLL), SanDisk Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:SNDK)
TWLL was a high volume gapper on Friday after reporting earnings Thursday night. See the perfect dummy setup in mid-afternoon on the chart below. Could be a momentum play with no resistance once $17.00 is taken out.


SNDK is coming into notable support at $45.65. Look for a potential reversal to setup.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 11/05/2006 10:02:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gapper, Technical



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Contained Selling




Selling in the last two sessions has been relatively contained. We have positive divergence of the RSI and MACD to lower prices on the 15 minute timeframe, so it feels like the NASDAQ wants to rally in the very short-term. Resistance at 2340, followed by 2355. Support levels are still 2325, followed by a congestion in the 2300 area.







[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 11/05/2006 08:40:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Divergence, NASDAQ



Friday, November 03, 2006Dummy Trade of the Day - SINA Corporation (USA) (Public, NASDAQ:SINA)
SINA gapped up on the open and pulled back sharply carving out a wide range red stick. the pullback continued for the first hour until it managed to find support at $27.00. After it became clear that SINA's retracement was over and a rally or potential retest of the opening price was possible, I took a low risk entry on the open of the 7th bar. My entry was $27.40 and my target was $28.50. I eventually settled for $28.30 since the market was weak and profits have been hard to come by this week.

I was hoping for a rally into the close when I took this low risk entry on NVDA. My risk was $0.12 and my reward was $0.50. Not bad.





[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 11/03/2006 07:05:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gapper



Thursday, November 02, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - NRB Ahead of Jobs Data

The markets idled ahead of Friday's jobs data. The NASDAQ gapped down on the open and made its way back up to the unchanged mark by mid-morning, then spent the balance of the day in NR chop chop. We are approaching oversold levels on the closely watched McClellan Oscillator, however, all major tech sectors except the almighty SOX, are still safely above their 50 MAs.




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 11/02/2006 09:22:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ

hefeiddd

Trade of the Day - NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA)

This trade started out as a gapper dummy entry on a pullback to the rising 10 period MA. My target was a 62% retracement of the last leg down. However, shortly after my entry NVDA carved out a lower high and started to pullback. I had to scratch the long entry. As Brian Shannon of Alpha Trends is fond of saying, "from failures come fast moves", so when price fell below the 25% retracement level, I decided to short NVDA. My stop was set just pennies above the 20 MA. My target was yesterday's low and it was reached in mid-afternoon.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 11/02/2006 07:22:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Fibonacci, Gapper



Wednesday, November 01, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bulls Scramble

The NASDAQ was hit with a heavy dose of selling and the bulls got caught. After yesterday's surprising low PMI, investors are paying more attention to the economic data. This morning's lower than expected ISM index - 51.2% vs 53% consensus, sent a clear message that the economy is really slowing down. So investors decided to take profits. The selling was broad based and all tech sectors participated with disk drive, semis, and networking pacing the way down. The NASDAQ carved out a WR bearish engulfing bar on higher volume, but at the end of the day it managed to observe the 20 EMA as support on a closing basis. The next support level is 2325, followed by 2300. Tomorrow's economic data includes Initial Claims at 8:30 EST and Factory Orders at 10:00.






[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 11/01/2006 08:06:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Bearish Engulfing, NASDAQ, Technical



Trade of the Day - NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA)
No need for any scans this morning, the market was screaming "Sell me" right from the opening bell. The Briefing.com coverage of NVDA was very negative - Amtech removing NVDA from its focus list, followed shortly thereafter by the dreaded stock options restatement update. I shorted it on the open with a target of $32.00, Friday's low.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 11/01/2006 07:35:00 PM 2 comments




Watch List - Semis - XLNX, MRVL, KLAC, and NVDA

Click on charts to enlarge and read chart notes.

All of the above names are well positioned to move higher. NVDA is approaching all time highs, however its earnings report is still unscheduled as far as I know. KLAC and XLNX have already reported. MRVL is the subject of takeover rumours.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 11/01/2006 07:24:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: Technical



Tuesday, October 31, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Another Consolidation Day
I'm expecting more consolidation at least until we get the jobs data on Friday and maybe until next week's elections. In the meantime, biotechs and semis seem to be the best positioned sectors for longs. Internet stocks which have been the leading tech sector of late, may be due for a pullback after disappointing earnings from BIDU. Economic data tomorrow: Construction spending and the ISM index at 10:00 EST; followed by Crude inventories at 10:30. GRMN reports before the bell and BOOM after hours.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/31/2006 09:18:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Dummy Trade of the Day - NVIDIA Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:NVDA)
NVDA is always front and centre on my trading screen, so I didn't have to run a gapper scan to catch this setup. The OR was wide and bullish. The next bar was NR with a long upper shadow followed by a bearish engulfing bar. The fourth bar came in deep but reversed forming a long lower shadow and signaling that the pullback was over. As soon as price took out the high of the reversal bar, I went long. I knew we had resistance coming in at $34.50, but volume was very bullish and I decided to hold on for a bigger gain. Price rallied into resistance and reversed, pulling back to the OR high, after which it took off again, closing on the 50% Fibonacci extension.

Celgene (NASDAQ: CELG) was from a gapper scan. My entry was a low risk dummy entry, after what I thought at the time, was a proper consolidation of the initial gap up. As soon as I entered at $53.00, the stock took off and I thought I had another winner. Unfortunately, after tagging $53.30, CELG pulled back and I eventually was stopped out. In retrospect, price was too far above the rising 10 period MA on my entry. Price and the short-term MA can never get away from each other for very long. I re-entered CELG in mid-afternoon after price carved out a higher low and crossed over the 10 period MA. This second trade covered twice the original loss.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/31/2006 07:27:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper



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hefeiddd

Monday, October 30, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Mixed
The NASDAQ was able to limit downside pressure by reversing just above support at 2340, however, it carved out a lower low and lower high on relatively lower volume which could be an early sign that the bulls have lost some of their conviction. Expect more choppiness until we breach 2375 on the upside or the trendline on the downside. Tomorrow's economic calendar includes Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence at 10:00 EST. On the earnings front we have US Steel (NYSE:X) and (NASDAQ:UARM) before the bell and (NASDAQ:BIDU) after hours.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/30/2006 10:43:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Michelle B. - StockTickr Interview
If you haven't already done so, check out Dave's interview with Michelle B., Trader Mike's prolific and eloquent contributor. With 10 years trading experience, Michelle has lots of trading insights to offer new and less experienced traders.

I am thrilled that Wall St. Warrior is among Michelle's favorite sites. Merci Michelle!

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/30/2006 08:08:00 PM 0 comments




Dummy Trade of the Day - Entercom Communications Corp. (Public, NYSE:ETM)
ETM was picked up on my gapper scan and it had all of the key elements that I look for in a gapper setup: high volume relative to the previous four sessions; fairly narrow gap consolidation while the MA catches up to price; and continuation following a test of the OR high. That continuation bar was my entry. My exit was the first lower high following the evening star reversal top.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/30/2006 07:40:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Dummy, Evening Star, Gapper



Technical Trade Ideas - (NYSE:TIE), (NYSE:X)

Both TIE and X are well positioned for a potential consolidation breakouts following three days of narrow rnage trading. Notice that both stocks carved out higher lows on Friday. Also notice that last Tuesday both stocks had a high volume price expansion following NR7 bars.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/30/2006 07:12:00 AM 8 comments
Labels: Technical



Pre-Market
RBC upgrades KLA-Tencor (KLAC 48.19) to Outperform from Sector Perform... Merrill upgrades Yahoo (YHOO 25.34) to Buy from Neutral with a $32 tgt. Baird lowers SanDisk (SNDK 48.04) tgt to $60 from $68, as they believe NAND flash pricing is already past a peak, with a potentially significant pricing decline in the first quarter as the co's NAND flash output could potentially exceed for the first time its NAND flash card distribution potential.

Courtesy of Briefing.com

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/30/2006 06:53:00 AM 0 comments




Sunday, October 29, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Failed Breakout?

Weekly Timeframe

Daily Timeframe

Friday morning the market gapped down on weak GDP numbers. Shortly after filling that gap, the NASDAQ went into a free fall. According to Briefng.com, the selloff was triggered by a Goldman Sachs growth forecast revision for motherboard shipments which, it was noted were "falling off a cliff". The NASDAQ posted only a minor gain on the week compared to the S&P and INDU. Since the NASDAQ usually leads this may be an early sign that we may be in for a pullback and that would be healthy given the August - October run. The SOX closed on its 50 day MA, giving back 9 points between 1:00 and 3:00 on Friday afternoon.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/29/2006 10:05:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Friday, October 27, 2006Dummy Trade of the Day - Titanium Metals Corporation (Public, NYSE:TIE)


After consolidating Tuesday's big move for two sessions, TIE edged up towards short-term resistance early in the session. I entered before resistance was tested on a low risk, dummy setup following a small hammer. My target was $33.50 and I exited just pennies below as TIE came within two cents but couldn't manage to tag my price.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/27/2006 11:59:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Dummy



Trade of the Day - NASDAQ 100 Trust Shares (ETF) (Public, NASDAQ:QQQQ)

The QQQQs gapped lower on the open following weaker than expected GDP numbers. Shortly after, they started to consolidate and over a period of a few hours, managed to close the gap. The consolidation took the form of a bearish rising wedge. Shortly after 1:00 p.m. EST, the wedge broke and the Qs fell down. I shorted at $42.65 and covered at $42.20.

Between 1:00 and 2:00 ET, it was reported that Goldman Sachs was cutting their growth forecast for motherboard shipments. After the broker reportedly said motherboard demand is "falling off a cliff," tech stocks did just that. Courtesy of Briefing.com



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/27/2006 11:52:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Technical



Thursday, October 26, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Another High Volume Breakout
Some profit taking followed the NASDAQ's opening gap up, but by mid-morning the market reversed off of its lows and followed up with a steady climb into the close. Most major tech sectors participated except software (RHAT and SYMC). Biotechs were very strong on the heels of some good earnings including CELG, which closed at an all time high.

After hours, AKAM reported a healthy quarter, beating by 0.02 cents, but failed to dazzle. Guidance was just slightly above consensus. Same type of reaction to MSFT.

Tomorrow's economic calendar includes GDP at 8:30 EST, followed by Michigan Sentiment at 9:50.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/26/2006 08:07:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Dummy Trade of the Day - Garmin Ltd. (Public, NASDAQ:GRMN)
I like to stick with my winners, so when GRMN gapped up and immediately reversed back down to retest yesterday's high, I was on the lookout for a low risk dummy entry. As soon as things settled down and price tagged the rising 10 period MA, I went long. It was a slow, but smooth ride as price stayed just comfortably above the MA throughout the session. I exited the trade into the close. Notice how price maintained a 45 degree angle for most of the session until after 3:00 when volume picked up.

Another gapper, this time from a scan. I waited until CHS reversed off of the rising 10 period MA and took a dummy long entry. Exit into the close.


AFFX was another name I picked up from the gapper scan. I went long as price crossed $26.00 after a few very NR bars. Shortly after I entered , price pulled back to the rising 10 period MA. The price action was so slow, I thought that it was going to lose its momentum, but things picked by mid-afternoon.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/26/2006 07:07:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gapper



Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Monday, October 30, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Mixed
The NASDAQ was able to limit downside pressure by reversing just above support at 2340, however, it carved out a lower low and lower high on relatively lower volume which could be an early sign that the bulls have lost some of their conviction. Expect more choppiness until we breach 2375 on the upside or the trendline on the downside. Tomorrow's economic calendar includes Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence at 10:00 EST. On the earnings front we have US Steel (NYSE:X) and (NASDAQ:UARM) before the bell and (NASDAQ:BIDU) after hours.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/30/2006 10:43:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/30/2006 08:08:00 PM 0 comments




Dummy Trade of the Day - Entercom Communications Corp. (Public, NYSE:ETM)
ETM was picked up on my gapper scan and it had all of the key elements that I look for in a gapper setup: high volume relative to the previous four sessions; fairly narrow gap consolidation while the MA catches up to price; and continuation following a test of the OR high. That continuation bar was my entry. My exit was the first lower high following the evening star reversal top.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/30/2006 07:40:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Dummy, Evening Star, Gapper



Technical Trade Ideas - (NYSE:TIE), (NYSE:X)

Both TIE and X are well positioned for a potential consolidation breakouts following three days of narrow rnage trading. Notice that both stocks carved out higher lows on Friday. Also notice that last Tuesday both stocks had a high volume price expansion following NR7 bars.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/30/2006 07:12:00 AM 8 comments
Labels: Technical



Pre-Market
RBC upgrades KLA-Tencor (KLAC 48.19) to Outperform from Sector Perform... Merrill upgrades Yahoo (YHOO 25.34) to Buy from Neutral with a $32 tgt. Baird lowers SanDisk (SNDK 48.04) tgt to $60 from $68, as they believe NAND flash pricing is already past a peak, with a potentially significant pricing decline in the first quarter as the co's NAND flash output could potentially exceed for the first time its NAND flash card distribution potential.

Courtesy of Briefing.com

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/30/2006 06:53:00 AM 0 comments




Sunday, October 29, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Failed Breakout?

Weekly Timeframe

Daily Timeframe

Friday morning the market gapped down on weak GDP numbers. Shortly after filling that gap, the NASDAQ went into a free fall. According to Briefng.com, the selloff was triggered by a Goldman Sachs growth forecast revision for motherboard shipments which, it was noted were "falling off a cliff". The NASDAQ posted only a minor gain on the week compared to the S&P and INDU. Since the NASDAQ usually leads this may be an early sign that we may be in for a pullback and that would be healthy given the August - October run. The SOX closed on its 50 day MA, giving back 9 points between 1:00 and 3:00 on Friday afternoon.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/29/2006 10:05:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Friday, October 27, 2006Dummy Trade of the Day - Titanium Metals Corporation (Public, NYSE:TIE)


After consolidating Tuesday's big move for two sessions, TIE edged up towards short-term resistance early in the session. I entered before resistance was tested on a low risk, dummy setup following a small hammer. My target was $33.50 and I exited just pennies below as TIE came within two cents but couldn't manage to tag my price.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/27/2006 11:59:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Dummy



Trade of the Day - NASDAQ 100 Trust Shares (ETF) (Public, NASDAQ:QQQQ)

The QQQQs gapped lower on the open following weaker than expected GDP numbers. Shortly after, they started to consolidate and over a period of a few hours, managed to close the gap. The consolidation took the form of a bearish rising wedge. Shortly after 1:00 p.m. EST, the wedge broke and the Qs fell down. I shorted at $42.65 and covered at $42.20.

Between 1:00 and 2:00 ET, it was reported that Goldman Sachs was cutting their growth forecast for motherboard shipments. After the broker reportedly said motherboard demand is "falling off a cliff," tech stocks did just that. Courtesy of Briefing.com



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/27/2006 11:52:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Technical



Thursday, October 26, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Another High Volume Breakout
Some profit taking followed the NASDAQ's opening gap up, but by mid-morning the market reversed off of its lows and followed up with a steady climb into the close. Most major tech sectors participated except software (RHAT and SYMC). Biotechs were very strong on the heels of some good earnings including CELG, which closed at an all time high.

After hours, AKAM reported a healthy quarter, beating by 0.02 cents, but failed to dazzle. Guidance was just slightly above consensus. Same type of reaction to MSFT.

Tomorrow's economic calendar includes GDP at 8:30 EST, followed by Michigan Sentiment at 9:50.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/26/2006 08:07:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Dummy Trade of the Day - Garmin Ltd. (Public, NASDAQ:GRMN)
I like to stick with my winners, so when GRMN gapped up and immediately reversed back down to retest yesterday's high, I was on the lookout for a low risk dummy entry. As soon as things settled down and price tagged the rising 10 period MA, I went long. It was a slow, but smooth ride as price stayed just comfortably above the MA throughout the session. I exited the trade into the close. Notice how price maintained a 45 degree angle for most of the session until after 3:00 when volume picked up.

Another gapper, this time from a scan. I waited until CHS reversed off of the rising 10 period MA and took a dummy long entry. Exit into the close.


AFFX was another name I picked up from the gapper scan. I went long as price crossed $26.00 after a few very NR bars. Shortly after I entered , price pulled back to the rising 10 period MA. The price action was so slow, I thought that it was going to lose its momentum, but things picked by mid-afternoon.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/26/2006 07:07:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gapper



Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Wednesday, October 25, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - SOX Regains its 50 MA
The SOX opened strong and rallied from 446 to 456 in the first hour of trade. Leading the way was KLAC following a strong earnings report last night. Also, pacing the way were BRCM, MXIM, and LRCX. The SOX closed near its highs once the FED statement was out of the way. Other strong tech sectors included disk drive and internet. From the chart above you will notice that the NASDAQ has held its 10 day EMA very well throughout this consolidation phase.

After hours FFIV beat handily and guided higher. On the docket tomorrow morning we have a few biotech names including CELG, MLNM, and MEDI. Tomorrow AH, one of my favorites - AKAM.

On the economic calendar we have Initial Claims and Durable Orders before the open, followed by New Home Sales at 10:00.






[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/25/2006 07:49:00 PM 1 comments
Labels: NASDAQ, SOX



Dummy Trade of the Day - Garmin Ltd. (Public, NASDAQ:GRMN)
GRMN was a gap up play from my 10:00 scan. The list this morning was longer than usual, so I took the time to go over the charts and narrow my selection. Although GRMN did not meet my volume criteria, I took the trade because of the candlestick setup and the proximity of my entry to the rising 10 period EMA. GRMN tagged the MA and reversed forming a small hammer. As soon as price took out the high of the hammer, I went long. I exited my position at 2:00 just prior to the release of the Fed policy statement.




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/25/2006 07:12:00 PM 1 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gapper



Tuesday, October 24, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Consolidation Day Ahead of Fed
The NASDAQ is showing signs of weakness as the SOX looks like it may rollover after all. AH KLAC and QLGC are trading up on earnings and CYMI is way down. The NAZ carved out a NR inside bar ahead of the FED policy statement tomorrow. Rumour has it that the statement will be on the hawkish side, so I will make sure to close all of my positions before 2:00 EST.

On a more positive note, AMZN is up 14% AH on a favorable earnings report. Earnings tomorrow include MNST before the open, and FFIV and MCHP after hours.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/24/2006 10:14:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Welcome to New Visitors
Traffic has been up 50% in the last two days thanks to feed links from Trader Mike and The Kirk Report. I also noticed quite few searches for the new series "Wall Street Warriors" stopping by. I posted on that series here on Sunday so you can check it out by scrolling down below or by clicking here.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/24/2006 08:36:00 PM 0 comments




NR7 Price Expansion - United States Steel Corporation (Public, NYSE:X)

Click on chart to enlarge

Here is a great example of Trader Mike's NR7 price expansion in action. Regular readers know that I have been trading Us Steel (NYSE:X) quite a bit since it showed up on a gapper scan on October 5th. Today, however, the internet where I work was down most of the morning, so I missed out on this huge move.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/24/2006 08:18:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: NR7



Trade of the Day - Akamai Technologies Inc. NASDAQ (AKAM)
I took a low risk entry on AKAM after it successfully retested breakout support and I held on until the close. A successful retest of support is often an indication that the stock has digested the break and is ready to move higher.

I took a low risk, long entry on NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) and it moved against me shortly after I got in. I had set a strategic stop just pennies below the low of the sixth bar hammer. Luckily, I did not get stopped out because the stock reversed and rallied on high volume. My position was stopped out just above $32.60 for a $0.60 gain.




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/24/2006 07:30:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NBR, Retest

hefeiddd

Wednesday, October 25, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - SOX Regains its 50 MA
The SOX opened strong and rallied from 446 to 456 in the first hour of trade. Leading the way was KLAC following a strong earnings report last night. Also, pacing the way were BRCM, MXIM, and LRCX. The SOX closed near its highs once the FED statement was out of the way. Other strong tech sectors included disk drive and internet. From the chart above you will notice that the NASDAQ has held its 10 day EMA very well throughout this consolidation phase.

After hours FFIV beat handily and guided higher. On the docket tomorrow morning we have a few biotech names including CELG, MLNM, and MEDI. Tomorrow AH, one of my favorites - AKAM.

On the economic calendar we have Initial Claims and Durable Orders before the open, followed by New Home Sales at 10:00.






[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/25/2006 07:49:00 PM 1 comments
Labels: NASDAQ, SOX



Dummy Trade of the Day - Garmin Ltd. (Public, NASDAQ:GRMN)
GRMN was a gap up play from my 10:00 scan. The list this morning was longer than usual, so I took the time to go over the charts and narrow my selection. Although GRMN did not meet my volume criteria, I took the trade because of the candlestick setup and the proximity of my entry to the rising 10 period EMA. GRMN tagged the MA and reversed forming a small hammer. As soon as price took out the high of the hammer, I went long. I exited my position at 2:00 just prior to the release of the Fed policy statement.




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/25/2006 07:12:00 PM 1 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gapper



Tuesday, October 24, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Consolidation Day Ahead of Fed
The NASDAQ is showing signs of weakness as the SOX looks like it may rollover after all. AH KLAC and QLGC are trading up on earnings and CYMI is way down. The NAZ carved out a NR inside bar ahead of the FED policy statement tomorrow. Rumour has it that the statement will be on the hawkish side, so I will make sure to close all of my positions before 2:00 EST.

On a more positive note, AMZN is up 14% AH on a favorable earnings report. Earnings tomorrow include MNST before the open, and FFIV and MCHP after hours.



[url=][/url]



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/24/2006 08:36:00 PM 0 comments




NR7 Price Expansion - United States Steel Corporation (Public, NYSE:X)

Click on chart to enlarge

readers know that I have been trading Us Steel (NYSE:X) quite a bit since it showed up on a gapper scan on October 5th. Today, however, the internet where I work was down most of the morning, so I missed out on this huge move.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/24/2006 08:18:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: NR7



Trade of the Day - Akamai Technologies Inc. NASDAQ (AKAM)
I took a low risk entry on AKAM after it successfully retested breakout support and I held on until the close. A successful retest of support is often an indication that the stock has digested the break and is ready to move higher.

I took a low risk, long entry on NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) and it moved against me shortly after I got in. I had set a strategic stop just pennies below the low of the sixth bar hammer. Luckily, I did not get stopped out because the stock reversed and rallied on high volume. My position was stopped out just above $32.60 for a $0.60 gain.




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/24/2006 07:30:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NBR, Retest

hefeiddd

Monday, October 23, 2006Technical Trade Idea - Citrix Systems, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CTXS)
After capitulating on lower than expected earnings last week, CTXS has bounced back to a notable resistance area ($30.00). Will it break resistance and rally back towards $32.00 and its declining 10 day EMA, or will it reverse and head south again?



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/23/2006 10:11:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Technical



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Cup & Handle on the Monthly Timeframe
After gapping down on the open, the NASDAQ managed to rally 34 points before trailing off in the afternoon. Better earnings and lower oil sparked some buying interest shortly after the open, however, the NAZ was by far the weakest of the major equity markets. AH we had some positive reports from NFLX and AMGN.

Earnings tomorrow include TZOO before the bell and AMZN after hours. The two day FOMC meeting begins tomorrow with a statement scheduled for 2:15 EST on Wednesday afternoon.

We're not out of the woods yet, but it appears that we have a bullish cup & handle pattern on the NASDAQ's monthly timeframe. Still, we have a lot of resistance dating back to 1999 and 2001 before we can declare victory.









[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/23/2006 08:25:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ, Technical



Dummy Trade of the Day - NVE Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:NVEC)
As usual, I ran my gapper scan shortly after 10:00 EST and I was pleasantly surprised to see two very familiar names show up - AKAM and NVEC. After a quick look at the daily timeframes, it was obvious that NVEC was breaking out whereas AKAM was running into resistance from the 20 day EMA. I waited for a low risk entry and exited after NVEC carved out a lower high in the afternoon. The NASDAQ market felt very weak early in the afternoon and I didn't want to push my luck. The chart does not look like much, but I managed to take out $1.30 on the trade.

One thing I should have done was calculate the Fibonacci extension on NVEC. I usually use a combination of resistance and the Fibonacci extension to calculate my target but I was lazy today. The 50% Fibonacci extension would have given me $42.60 as a target. My exit was $42.35. Discipline.


My only other trade was another long on CAL as it consolidated its gap. My entry was a low risk dummy entry on the fourth 15 minute stick. I exited this position before lunch with a small profit because I didn't want to risk a scratch and the stock felt sluggish after last week's big run.





[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/23/2006 07:03:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gapper




Labels: Dummy, Gapper
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Friday, October 20, 2006Dummy Trade of the Day - Continental Airlines, Inc. (Public, NYSE:CAL)
I found CAL through a gapper scan and was planning to buy it if it reversed off of its rising 10 period EMA but I was away from my desk at the time so I waited to see if the next bar would close above support and then I went long. I didn't want to push my luck on options expiration so I booked my profit after a 1 pt. gain. A quick look at the monthly chart below shows that CAL rallied right up to resistance dating back to 2002.


ANPI was a left over from yesterday's gapper scan. I didn't trade it yesterday, but today I tried a low risk entry just above a pivot point, but it failed. Small loss.








[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/20/2006 07:38:00 PM 9 comments
Labels: Dummy, NRB



Technical Trade Idea - F5 Networks Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:FFIV)
FFIV carves out a NRB on pivot point support. Could foreshadow a reversal.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/20/2006 12:37:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: NRB, Pivot Point, Technical



Thursday, October 19, 2006Wall St. Warrior in the Top 10
Trader Mike's Top Traffic Sources - Within a month or so of starting this blog, I was privileged to get a links with my two favorite bloggers - Trader Mike and Trader-X. They put me on the day trading blogging map and I am extremely grateful. Thanks guys!

Equity Investment Ideas - Top Blog List - Thanks for the mention Yaser!

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/19/2006 11:45:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Blogs



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Narrow Range Trading Leading into Options Expiration
A narrow range trading day just ahead of options expiration. The SOX managed to close on its 50 day MA as discussed here last night. BRCM and XLNX up in AH trade but SNDK and FLSH are way down on disappointing earnings. GOOG had a big beat tonight - EPS 21 cents ahead of Reuters estimates and a 70% increase in yoy revenues.








[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/19/2006 11:32:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Dummy Trade of the Day - CONSOL Energy Inc. (Public, NYSE:CNX)
CNX came to me from a gapper scan. I liked the volume so as soon as it reversed off of support from its rising 10 period EMA, I took a long position. I made my exit when it became clear that CNX was carving out a lower high. From the daily timeframe it appeared that the June closing low ($35.59) was acting as resistance.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/19/2006 07:30:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Gapper



Trade of the Day - United States Steel Corporation (Public, NYSE:X)
X tagged its 10 day MA on the daily timeframe and immediately reversed on high volume. Once it had taken out its OR high I was looking to get long. My entry was just above the 200 MA. I didn't place a hard stop , but I would have taken a loss if X had breached the 200 MA on a closing basis on the 15 minute timeframe. I booked 50% of my profit after a 1 pt. gain and moved my stop up to yesterday's low. X carved out a bullish engulfing bar on the daily timeframe and I sold my remaining position on weakness late in the session.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/19/2006 07:18:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Technical



Wednesday, October 18, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - SOX Sells Off
The NASDAQ filled its gap on the open and then the sellers immediately took over. Since I posted the SOX chart on Monday, we've had two days of profit taking. However, now we are coming into support of the rising 50 day MA. A close tomorrow on or above the 50 MA for the SOX is important. I will be looking to take advantage of a potential bounce in strong semi names such as NVDA if notable support holds and a reversal setup presents itself.

AAPL and NVEC are up in AH trade, AMD is down and CTXS are getting kicked into the gutter.









[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/18/2006 10:18:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Dummy Trade of the Day - Canadian National Railway (USA) (Public, NYSE:CNI)
I ran a gapper scan shortly after 10:00 EST. After reviewing all of the charts from the scan, I decided that CNI had the best potential based on volume and narrow consolidation of the gap up. I took a low risk entry following a NR bar which had just carved out a higher low. My target was the 50% Fibonacci extension around $45.50. I knew that there was resistance at $45.00, but I was hoping that we could take it out. I was wrong, I took 50 % profit just below $45.00 and was stopped out on the balance. CNI had a nice, orderly pullback to the rising 20 period MA so I was able to take a second low risk entry into the close. As soon as price tagged $45.00, I booked my profit.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/18/2006 07:59:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Dummy



Trade of the Day - Yahoo! Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:YHOO)
YHOO gapped up on the open but quickly reversed course as sellers took over on heavy volume following last night's dismal earnings report. I took a short position on a break of the OR low and covered as soon as price reached $23.00.

I noticed that X was testing its trendline just as I was about to go for lunch, so I stuck around and took a short position. My preliminary target was yesterday's low, followed by a gap fill to Friday's close (both of these targets are mapped out by the blue lines). I covered 50% of my position about 10 cents below my first target and held the balance hoping to reach my second target. I covered the balance of my position when it appeared that X might rally into the close.





[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/18/2006 07:39:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Short, Technical



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Friday, October 20, 2006Dummy Trade of the Day - Continental Airlines, Inc. (Public, NYSE:CAL)
I found CAL through a gapper scan and was planning to buy it if it reversed off of its rising 10 period EMA but I was away from my desk at the time so I waited to see if the next bar would close above support and then I went long. I didn't want to push my luck on options expiration so I booked my profit after a 1 pt. gain. A quick look at the monthly chart below shows that CAL rallied right up to resistance dating back to 2002.


ANPI was a left over from yesterday's gapper scan. I didn't trade it yesterday, but today I tried a low risk entry just above a pivot point, but it failed. Small loss.








[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/20/2006 07:38:00 PM 9 comments
Labels: Dummy, NRB



Technical Trade Idea - F5 Networks Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:FFIV)
FFIV carves out a NRB on pivot point support. Could foreshadow a reversal.



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Posted by Jamie at 10/19/2006 11:45:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Blogs



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Narrow Range Trading Leading into Options Expiration
A narrow range trading day just ahead of options expiration. The SOX managed to close on its 50 day MA as discussed here last night. BRCM and XLNX up in AH trade but SNDK and FLSH are way down on disappointing earnings. GOOG had a big beat tonight - EPS 21 cents ahead of Reuters estimates and a 70% increase in yoy revenues.








[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/19/2006 11:32:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Dummy Trade of the Day - CONSOL Energy Inc. (Public, NYSE:CNX)
CNX came to me from a gapper scan. I liked the volume so as soon as it reversed off of support from its rising 10 period EMA, I took a long position. I made my exit when it became clear that CNX was carving out a lower high. From the daily timeframe it appeared that the June closing low ($35.59) was acting as resistance.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/19/2006 07:30:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Gapper



Trade of the Day - United States Steel Corporation (Public, NYSE:X)
X tagged its 10 day MA on the daily timeframe and immediately reversed on high volume. Once it had taken out its OR high I was looking to get long. My entry was just above the 200 MA. I didn't place a hard stop , but I would have taken a loss if X had breached the 200 MA on a closing basis on the 15 minute timeframe. I booked 50% of my profit after a 1 pt. gain and moved my stop up to yesterday's low. X carved out a bullish engulfing bar on the daily timeframe and I sold my remaining position on weakness late in the session.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/19/2006 07:18:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Technical



Wednesday, October 18, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - SOX Sells Off
The NASDAQ filled its gap on the open and then the sellers immediately took over. Since I posted the SOX chart on Monday, we've had two days of profit taking. However, now we are coming into support of the rising 50 day MA. A close tomorrow on or above the 50 MA for the SOX is important. I will be looking to take advantage of a potential bounce in strong semi names such as NVDA if notable support holds and a reversal setup presents itself.

AAPL and NVEC are up in AH trade, AMD is down and CTXS are getting kicked into the gutter.









[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/18/2006 10:18:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Dummy Trade of the Day - Canadian National Railway (USA) (Public, NYSE:CNI)
I ran a gapper scan shortly after 10:00 EST. After reviewing all of the charts from the scan, I decided that CNI had the best potential based on volume and narrow consolidation of the gap up. I took a low risk entry following a NR bar which had just carved out a higher low. My target was the 50% Fibonacci extension around $45.50. I knew that there was resistance at $45.00, but I was hoping that we could take it out. I was wrong, I took 50 % profit just below $45.00 and was stopped out on the balance. CNI had a nice, orderly pullback to the rising 20 period MA so I was able to take a second low risk entry into the close. As soon as price tagged $45.00, I booked my profit.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/18/2006 07:59:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Dummy



Trade of the Day - Yahoo! Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:YHOO)
YHOO gapped up on the open but quickly reversed course as sellers took over on heavy volume following last night's dismal earnings report. I took a short position on a break of the OR low and covered as soon as price reached $23.00.

I noticed that X was testing its trendline just as I was about to go for lunch, so I stuck around and took a short position. My preliminary target was yesterday's low, followed by a gap fill to Friday's close (both of these targets are mapped out by the blue lines). I covered 50% of my position about 10 cents below my first target and held the balance hoping to reach my second target. I covered the balance of my position when it appeared that X might rally into the close.





[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/18/2006 07:39:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Short, Technical



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Tuesday, October 17, 2006Research In Motion Limited (USA) (Public, NASDAQ:RIMM) on WallStrip
The second installment of WallStrip
focuses on Canada's biggest tech success story du jour - RIMM, or the Canadian ticker symbol RIM as Lindsay Campbell ( any relation to Neve - Scream / Party of Five - Campbell?) prefers.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/17/2006 09:20:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: WallStrip



NASDAQ Technical Picture - High Volume Gap Down






The NASDAQ gapped down on on Goldman Sack's downgrade of INTC amid worries that tech stocks are overvalued. AH earnings from INTC, YHOO, and MOT were not rich enough so the overall market should remain weak. It could be another stock picker's earnings season with stars like ILMN and RIMM heading north to challenge resistance and all time highs, while the overall market drifts back to reality. It's too soon to tell for sure, but it's my gut feeling.
Tomorrow's economic data includes CPI and housing starts BTB and crude inventories at 10:30. AAPL and AMD are among the bellwether tech companies reporting AH.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/17/2006 08:58:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Dummy Trade of the Day - Global Crossing Ltd. (Public, NASDAQ:GLBC)

Daily Timeframe

15 Minute Timeframe

I ran a gapper scan shortly after 10:00. After sifting through all of the hits, I decided to focus on three stocks, LEA, SNPS, and GLBC. I finally decided to go with GLBC because of volume and the narrow consolidation. I took a long entry following a NRB with the 10 period MA coming up just below as support. I took 50% of my profit after a 1 pt gain. My target was $24.80 - $25.00 based on the 50% Fibonacci extension (from yesterday's low to the OR high) and the next resistance level on the daily view, however, that target proved too much under today's market conditions.

This was my only trade today. When I saw the weakness on the open, I was hoping for a bounce off of support on some of my usual suspects, but most stocks just meandered sideways after the initial drop.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/17/2006 07:32:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gapper



Monday, October 16, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Feels Toppy


The NASDAQ peeked within the first hour of trade and managed to trade sideways for the rest of the day. Still, we are inching ever closer to 52 week highs. I'm going to be posting the 60 minute timeframe along with the daily going forward so that we can monitor the trendline. Notice how the MACD crossed over on the shorter timeframe today.



Earnings season ramps up tomorrow AH. Economic data to watch for tomorrow BTB are PPI and Capacity utilization.



Below is chart of the SOX - Notice the proximity of price to the 200 MA.









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Posted by Jamie at 10/16/2006 11:03:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Trade of the Day - Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ENER)
I was guided by last night's watch list in most of my trading today. The only real success of which was ENER. All of my picks gapped up above Friday's high on the open except ENER. However, after the OR, JOYG, SNDK and BRCM generated only NR, intraday trading opportunities.



ENER was a long on a break of the OR high with a stop just below $39.00. I took 50% of my profit after a 1 pt. gain and exited the balance after it failed to take out $41.00 on its second attempt.

JOYG was a long as it took out a very NR bar just above the 10 period MA in late morning trade. I set my stop 10 cents below the previous bar and was stopped out by a few pennies during lunch. A more strategic stop would have been the low of the hammer (6th bar on the 15 min. timeframe). I eventually ventured back into JOYG as it took out minor resistance at $41.50. As soon as it traded up to $42.10, I moved my stop up to $42.00.


BRCM never triggered because I was looking to go long on a break of $31.00 as it appeared to be forming a narrow ascending triangle.


I took a long entry on SNDK after an orderly pullback towards the rising 10 period MA. The bar prior to my entry was NR and had just carved out a higher low. I was stopped out shortly after on a failure.




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/16/2006 07:32:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gapper, Watchlist

hefeiddd

Sunday, October 15, 2006Watch List - ENER, BRCM, JOYG, SNDK
Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ENER) could move higher after consolidating its recent gains. Target the 200 MA.

Broadcom Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:BRCM) looks poised to test resistance ahead of earnings on Thursday AH.



Joy Global Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:JOYG) is currently consolidating its last leg up from $36.00 to $41.25. Friday it carved out a NRB which could be NR7. Look for a high volume break of reistance at $41.25 with a target of $46.00 (not necessarily all in one session).




SanDisk Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:SNDK) looks poised to break resistance at $60.00 anytime soon. SNDK reports Q3 earnings on Thursday AH. Unlike the last test of this level, the MACD now looks bullish.












[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/15/2006 10:14:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Watchlist



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Technical Resistance Looms Large

Daily Timeframe

Weekly Timeframe

60 Minute Timeframe

From the weekly timeframe, we can see that the NASDAQ is fast approaching the 52 week high set last April. The 60 minute timeframe shows that the delta between price and the trendline is extremely wide, so much so that an accelerated trendline is in play. I'll be watching this trendline closely to see if and when, a tradable pullback or trend reversal comes into play.
In the meantime earnings rule, and the big ones to watch this week are:
Tuesday AH: IBM, INTC, MOT, YHOO
Wed. AH: AMD, AAPL, CTXS, EBAY, GILD, JNPR, NVEC, PLCM
Thurs. AH: BRCM, GOOG, SNDK, RBAK, XLNX
We have no major economic data tomorrow.









[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/15/2006 04:53:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Anatomy of a Gap Down Reversal - Polaris Industries Inc. (Public, NYSE:PII)

A reader asks how to play the gap down and reversal on PII. Before analysing a possible setup, let's look at a little background and the technical aspect of the daily chart.

PII gapped down on Thursday October 12th on an earnings miss and downside guidance. It was trading down more than 5% in the pre-market.

A quick look at the daily timeframe showed that PII would likely open near notable support (pink segment) and the 50 day MA which had little or no slope (flat). The two pink arrows mark pivot point resistance on the long side.

Daily timeframe

Now if we move to the 15 minute timeframe, we see that PII opens just 50 cents shy of technical support carving out a doji with a long upper shadow. The next bar is bullish and takes out the high of the OR but closes below the OR high, however it generates a higher low.

15 minute timeframe

If we flip over to the 5 minute timeframe, we see that the downsloping 10 period MA is coming down to help push price lower. The first half hour of trade has been NR basically trading between $40.00 and $39.50. At point A, where the 10:00 bar takes out the low of the 9:55 bar, we might decide to take a short position with a preliminary target of $39.00 because the risk reward ratio is very favorable. Our risk is approx. $0.25 and out reward $0.75. As price approaches point B, we would lock in 50% of our profit and hope for a tight consolidation before breaking technical support (pink segment). At point C, we are starting to have doubts because the technical bounce has legs ie. more price momentum than typically corresponds to a consolidation or pullback. Inevitably, we are expecting to get stopped out, but still hoping that the downsloping 20 MA will be observed as resistance. When that doesn't happen, we get stopped out, however, we still have a 50% profit on the trade.
Now getting back to the reader's original question, how to play PII long on a gap fill scenario. Once price has closed above $40.00, it seems clear that a gap fill is in play, so a long entry would be taken around point D, with a stop 10 cents below the 20 MA. This an aggressive play and I would not have taken it, especially with the 50 MA swooning down midway between $40 and $41.oo

5 minute timeframe

Going back to the 15 minute view, we can manage the trade from this longer timeframe once the long is safely underway. Exit 50% on the gap fill and set a tight stop as price approaches the previous day's afternoon high. The uppermost blue line marks pivot point resistance from the daily view, so if you are still in the trade beyond the gap fill, this is an ideal exit target.

15 minute timeframe

Technical bounces can be very powerful trading opportunities, however, given the fundamental scenario of missed earnings and lowered guidance in the case of PII, it is unlikely that most traders could have predicted the ultimate outcome. In analysing this trade setup, I tried to put myself in the trade at the time it happened, without the benefit of hindsight. As indicated above, it is very unlikely that I would have pursued the long side of the trade after being stopped out on the second half of my original short. Also notice that there were no real low risk entry opportunities on the 15 minute timeframe leading into the gap fill.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/15/2006 10:01:00 AM 2 comments
Labels: Gapper



Friday, October 13, 2006Trade of the Day - United States Steel Corporation (Public, NYSE:X)
I couldn't find any good gapper setups this morning so I quickly ran through my usual suspects. After a quick look at X, I realized that I had missed one of my classic bread and butter entries on a three day consolidation breakout. The only thing I could do at that point was wait for a consolidation as the move was well underway and I didn't want to chase it. I took a long entry after a NRB printed on the 15 minute timeframe. Since X was already up a dollar, I kept a close eye on it as I didn't know how much further it could go on a Friday. As soon as I had a dollar gain, I closed my entire position. That was it for me. I don't particularly care for Friday afternoon trading as it is often narrow and choppy. My exit was almost perfectly timed because after tagging $67.00, volume dried up and X had a stair step decline for the balance of the session.

Three day consolidation breakout - After a sizable price rally, the stock consolidates the move in its upper range for three (or more) days, before breaking out again.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/13/2006 07:51:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NRB



Thursday, October 12, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Earnings Season
Stocks rallied across the board as earnings improved and the Fed beige book provided more evidence that the economy is on track. All tech sectors participated in the rally. Software and MSFT (mega market cap.) had a big hand in today's big move. For a perfect NR7 setup, take a look at MSFT daily chart (below).

So last night's technical picture was off because of earnings. And next week earnings season really kicks in, making the writing of this post a bigger challenge. As indicated here earlier this week, the market is priced to perfection so we need big earnings to keep the bears at bay. For the moment it looks like we are heading higher since we closed at the top of the session. However, GE, another mega market cap, reports BTB and could set the tone for tomorrow's trade.

Tomorrow's economic calendar includes import/export and retail sales BTB, Michigan sentiment at 9:50, and Business inventories at 10:00. Oh, and tomorrow is also Friday the 13th!




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/12/2006 09:27:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



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Thursday, October 12, 2006Beta Blogger Image Loading Problems
Is there a trick for loading images in the latest version of Blogger? I keep getting blanks with little red Xs in the upper left hand corner?

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/12/2006 08:23:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Blogger



Dummy Trade of the Day - BE Aerospace, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:BEAV)
I got so many hits when I ran my gapper scan, that it took me quite a while to narrow my selection. I finally took a chance on BEAV, but only after it had taken out its OR high following a NRB. I took 50% of my profit after a 1 pt. gain and decided to let the rest go as price came into $24.00 because I noticed that volume was diminishing.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/12/2006 08:16:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Dummy, NRB



Trade of the Day - Apple Computer Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)
Daily Timframe - Yesterday AAPL carved out a NR7 bar on the daily timeframe on a test of support. My strategy today was a reversal long for AAPL off of the NR7 bar.



AAPL started trading up in pre-market so I placed a buy stop order on a break of the pre-market high. My target was resistance at $75.00. I was filled on the open and I exited my entire position as price rallied up to tag $75.00 shortly past 10:00. Notice the volume on the first three sticks as price moved towards $75.00, followed by a drop in volume as price pulled back and consolidated the move.

NR7 - My definition of NR7 is a NRB with the smallest real body over the last seven sessions. NRB with potential for reversal from support after an orderly pullback or consolidation.





[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 10/12/2006 07:20:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Gapper, NRB



Wednesday, October 11, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Profit Taking?
The NASDAQ gave back 7 points on higher volume in another choppy session as the market has been range bound for almost a week. Despite the pullback exacerbated by the FOMC and the NYC plane crash, semis were strong led by AMD, RMBS, XLNX and LRCX ahead of earnings. LRCX beat estimates by 10 cents and guided higher. It had an early run up to $51.00 in AH, however, it gave it all back to end the AH session just below $48.00.
At the moment it looks like we may be carving out a rounded top which foreshadows a deeper pullback. However, taking it one day at a time, support levels to watch tomorrow are 2288, followed by 2075. On the economic calendar we have Initial Claims and Trade Balance before the open, followed by crude at 10:30 and the Fed Beige book at 2:00.
GENZ reports before the bell.


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Posted by Jamie at 10/11/2006 09:11:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Trade of the Day - Autodesk, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ADSK)
I got a late start following some morning meetings and was just about to put off trading today due to choppy market conditions and the upcoming FOMC minutes, when I came upon this low risk short entry on ADSK. As it turned out all the news in the afternoon was bearish so the trade was able to run its course. The setup was a short following several NRBs curving lower under the weight of the MAs. I covered as price bounced off of support.

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Posted by Jamie at 10/11/2006 07:17:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NRB



Tuesday, October 10, 2006Dummy Trade of the Day - Meritage Homes Corporation (Public, NYSE:MTH)

Daily timeframe

15 minute timeframe

click on charts to enlarge

I ran a gapper scan shortly after 10:00 EST this morning. Most of the names that came out were too far gone so I set them aside as possible pullback plays. MTH was consolidating its gap up. A quick look at the daily view showed that MTH had cleared its pivot point resistance (pivots are marked by pink arrows on the daily timeframe). I took a long position on the 7th 15 minute bar (NR7) which as you can see was very low risk. I set my stop 10 cents below the low of the previous 15 min. bar. Price took off shortly after my entry. I booked 50% of my profit after a 1+ point gain as volume was declining. I sold the balance of my position on weakness in early afternoon.

P.S. - I have personal business to attend to, so this will be my only post today. See you back here tomorrow night. Good trading!

Questions on NR7 - refer to Trader Mike's excellent post on NRB and Range Contraction by

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Posted by Jamie at 10/10/2006 05:12:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Gapper



Monday, October 09, 2006Chart Analysis Request - Citrix Systems, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CTXS)

Pivot point support at $33.25 (pink segment), followed by the 50 day MA. I'm not seeing a short setup just yet. There's too much support in close proximity.



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Posted by Jamie at 10/09/2006 10:54:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Technical



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Low Volume Extension


Notwithstanding today's holiday and Wednesday's WRB, this last leg up feels like its lacking volume. We had a mid-afternoon selloff just ahead of earnings season. I know that I was overly cautious going into this last bounce but I believe that the NASDAQ is priced to perfection and we will see weakness if earnings don't get off to a strong start. DNA, LRCX, and GENZ are the first stocks of interest reporting Tuesday, Wednesday (AH) and Thursday (BTB) respectively.


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Posted by Jamie at 10/09/2006 08:12:00 PM 1 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Akamai Technologies, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AKAM)

The above chart is a 60 minute view of AKAM. Notice how it broke its lower trendline in early trade this morning. I mentioned it as a potential short but was unable to borrow any shares through IB. So I stalked it for a potential bounce or a retest of the broken trendline.
The five minute chart below shows how AKAM breached support at $50.50 but quickly snapped back setting up a long and a quick retest of the broken trendline before continuing its decent. My entry and exit are indicated by the blue (entry) and red (exit) arrows.


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Posted by Jamie at 10/09/2006 05:29:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Retest, Technical



Dummy Trade of the Day - U.S. Steel Corp. (Public, NASDAQ:X)
X gapped up on the open and after a short period of consolidation, it took out the opening range high. I went long as soon as price took out the OR high - (my avg price $61.65). Volume picked up nicely, propelling the stock up to my target of $64.00. My target of $64.00 was the midway point between resistance ($64.18 from the daily) and the 100% Fibonacci extension from Friday's low. As you can see from the chart, X actually tagged the 1.6 Fibonacci extension at $65.19 (Wow!, how often does that happen?) before coming back in. So my target, which I thought was very optimistic given last week's run, was not quite right.

Chart: 5 minute timeframe

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Posted by Jamie at 10/09/2006 04:37:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Gapper



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