一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Thursday, May 17, 2007Base and Break Trades - Apple Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL), Crocs, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CROX)
Yesterday I was on the wrong side of the trade when the iPhone rumour hit the street. Today I was on the right side of the trade when the real news came out. This was a low risk narrow B&B setup with convergence of the MAs just under price. I used a buy stop order, set my stop and went to make a cup of coffee. By the time I came back, my target was surpassed so I took a partial. I read the news and sat back to see if AAPL could take out its all time high. Maybe tomorrow!
Yesterday CROX gapped up but faded. I really like the daily chart for CROX and when I saw the narrow afternoon base, I put CROX at the top of my watch list for today. I took a partial after 1 pt. because this was a pivot point area. I exited the balance on weakness going into lunch.

COP showed up on one of my IB pre-market filters along with TOT. COP had a nice base and break pattern on both the daily and intraday timeframes. This is a perfect example of a Highchartpatterns.com setup. I won't be surprised if they took this trade today as well.


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Posted by Jamie at 5/17/2007 07:23:00 PM 12 comments
Labels: Base_Breakout



Dummy Trade of the Day - DUSA Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:DUSA)
DUSA was a gapper from the Briefing.com gapper list. It consolidated the gap with a 25% retracement of yesterday's low to the ORH. The 3rd and 4th bars were NR and allowed for a low risk base break entry with good support from the rising 5 period EMA. The entry bar easily took out the ORH. I took a partial at the 38% Fibonacci extension and exit the balance as price approached the 62% extension.



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Posted by Jamie at 5/17/2007 07:03:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper



Wednesday, May 16, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bulls Fight Back
After some early session weakness, the NASDAQ managed to bounce back on lighter volume. The trend of higher volume on the sell side and lighter volume on the buy side usually foreshadows a deeper correction. The NASDAQ might be carving out a mini H&S top - a lower high would lead into this pattern.

Economic calendar: initial claims at 8:30; leading indicators at 10:00; and Philadelphia fed at 12:00.

Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: ACXM +18.3%; SPTN +2.7%; MNT +2.6%; SXE +1.9%; HPQ +1.2%... Trading Down: OPNT -10.4%; NAPS -3.9%; SUSS -1.5%; CRM -1.2%...

Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: ACXM +18.3% (agrees to be acquired by Silver Lake and ValueAct Capital for $3.0 bln, or $27.10 per share); PAE +13.3% (Sony Pictures Worldwide Acquisition Group acquires from PAE all U.S. rights to dramatic feature "Winged Creatures"); GRB +12.9% (raises 4Q07 guidance); CLN +12.0% (Clinically meaningful activity of ThermoDox and Hyperthermia in the early stages of a Phase I study); NINE +10.5% (wins open bid for paid services); SUNW +3.5% (announces $3 bln share repurchase authorization); EMKR +1.9% (receives notice from NASDAQ due to delay in filing of form 10-Q); WFR +1.2% (authorizes share repurchase program for up to $500 mln of common stock); PLUS +1.0% (receives notice from NASDAQ due to delay in filing of form 10-Q)... Trading Down: NETC -2.9% (announces Anatel's authorization for the acquisition of Vivax); MU -2.4% (proposed $1.1 bln offering of convertible senior notes); MEDX -1.4% (announces the appointment of Howard Pien as President and CEO and member of the Medarex Board of Directors); ORBC -1.3% (announces agreement with major wireless carrier; begin offering terrestrial wireless services to complement its satellite-based wireless); NT -1.2% (reaches settlement agreement with OSC staff); INFS -1.1% (announces departure of President and CEO).

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Posted by Jamie at 5/16/2007 07:32:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Dummy Trade of the Day - Forest Oil Corporation (Public, NYSE:FST)
FST gapped up and consolidated for two hours in the middle of the OR before setting up a break of the ORH. The entry had good support from the 5 period EMA. After the break, it retested the ORH as support and moved up from there. I exited on a volume spike as I felt that the end of the move was imminent. It continued to rally above the 100% Fibonacci extension and finally printed a red bar with a long upper shadow, so I shorted a break of the previous bar low and covered as price approached the rising 5 period ema. The distance between price and the ema was just too wide, so I felt to two would meet before the end of the session. THX was another gapper on my scan that made a similar move as FST.



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Posted by Jamie at 5/16/2007 05:02:00 PM 8 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper



iPhone Delay is FALSE ALARM - Apple Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL)
Apple: Engadget issues false alarm on Apple story

Engadget now writes "While our source that provided us the information is solid, we just heard back from Apple PR -- they let us know that the iPhone and Leopard are both still on track, and should meet their expected launch timeframes. We'll keep you up to the second with any further developments."

On a personal note, I was long AAPL when the false alarm was issued and I was stopped out. Decided to short before I knew what was happening - covered at $105. This sort of screws up the whole chart.

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Posted by Jamie at 5/16/2007 12:21:00 PM 3 comments

hefeiddd

Tuesday, May 15, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Distribution into Key Support Zone
After yesterday's choppy session, the afternoon sell off was a welcome change in that it provided day traders with some direction. Things could get interesting as we come into our first real test of the April breakout point. Two distribution days over the last 5 sessions, puts the bears firmly in control.

Keep an eye on intraday pivot points as these will help you pick low risk entry points. Price often consolidates at the cusp of a pivot before making a big move.

Tomorrow's economic data is focused on Housing at 8:30; Industrial production and capacity utilization at 9:15 and crude at 10:30.



Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: ERS +10.3%; PDEX +9.4%; PMRY +9.3%; CPWR +9.0%; CVLT +1.9%; SCR +1.5%; DTSI +1.4%... Trading Down: SLRY -21.6%; GOAM -13.0%; PFSW -7.7%; GPIC -6.7%; BLUE -6.7%; MSII -6.0%; SPIR -5.2%; FRPT -5.0%; FUEL -4.7%; AMAT -3.8%; PLAB -2.7%; HRBN -2.1%...

Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: ACM +10.5% (announces closing of initial public offering); ASTI +4.3% (Paulson Capital discloses 11.5% stake in SC 13G filing); OVEN +1.8% (receives additional NASDAQ staff determination notice); OSTE +1.5% (expands tissue supply relationship with Community Tissue Services)... Trading Down: ESLR -3.8% (announces public offering of common stock of 15 mln shares); TPP -2.0% (prices $300 mln offering of junior subordinated notes); KMR -1.0% (announces public offering of listed shares). Courtesy of Briefing.com

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Posted by Jamie at 5/15/2007 08:27:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Dummy Trade of the Day - Apple Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL)
AAPL finally set up a low risk short entry on a breach of the ORL this afternoon. This was an easy trade to manage because the bears finally got aggressive with AAPL. I just kept moving my stop 5 cents above the previous bar high until it capitulated at $106.50. I covered at $1o6.80 for an even 2 pt. gain. My risk was $0.40 which results in a 5R gain. Sweet!

My first long entry on AMGN failed after taking out the morning high so I exited my full position. My second entry this afternoon had a longer basing period and a strong finish into the close which could bode well for a follow-up trade tomorrow.



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Posted by Jamie at 5/15/2007 05:36:00 PM 13 comments
Labels: Base_Breakout, Dummy, Short



Monday, May 14, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - More Profit Taking on Higher Volume
Watch how price reacts to 2525. Feels like we are heading for a correction. The last time the ADX line dipped below 15, was just prior to the February meltdown. The MACD has just crossed over confirming the negative bias. Like Thursday, volume was higher on today's pullback.

The all important CPI data is scheduled for tomorrow at 8:30.

Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: ATEA +34.3%; ACY +11.6%; ICFI +10.0%; HWK +9.4%; TBSI +6.8%; LONG +6.1%; ENCO +4.3%; RICK +3.4%; PCS +2.6%; LWAV +2.3%; SDXC +1.7%; MR +1.5%; KRY +1.3%... Trading Down: STEC -12.1%; GSAT -11.1%; PLTE -9.8%; CNTF -10.9%; CPII -4.3%; ARTX -2.5%; SINA -1.8%; GUID -1.2%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: HTLD +5.0% (declares special dividends of $2.00 per share); CVTX +3.8% (submits New Drug Application for regadenoson; triggers $7 mln milestone payment); KBR +1.7% (awarded contracts for construction and fabrication services by Shell Canada for Scotford upgrader expansion)... Trading Down: ARAY -5.7% (amends announcement of its fiscal Q3 results); BARE -1.9% (files registration statement for public offering of 10 mln shares).

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Posted by Jamie at 5/14/2007 10:25:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Dummy Trade of the Day - Continental Airlines, Inc. (Public, NYSE:CAL)
CAL was a short setup on a break of a two day base. I was hoping for a dollar on this one but it didn't even get close.

A choppy session with few good setups. Hopefully, tomorrow will be better!



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Posted by Jamie at 5/14/2007 04:11:00 PM 7 comments
Labels: Base_Breakout



Sunday, May 13, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Weekend Update
A bullish finish to a volatile week. Despite the early quote problems, price rallied following Thursday's corrective action. However, the short duration of the NASDAQ quote glitch does not likely account for the lacklustre volume. We have an inside day and we need to see more proof to determine whether or not Thursday's sell off was a one day correction or the start of something more substantial.

The weekly chart has just carved out two hammer/hanging men type candlesticks and after such a lengthy leg up, I favor the hanging men scenario, but again a hanging man needs confirmation because the long lower shadow is bullish.





No economic data scheduled for Monday.

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Posted by Jamie at 5/13/2007 03:46:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Hanging_Man, NASDAQ



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hefeiddd

Sunday, May 13, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - Alcan Inc. (USA) (Public, NYSE:AL)
Alcoa's hostile bid for Alcan should make AL an interesting play in the near term, so I added it to my usual suspects list last week. Friday we had problems with NASDAQ quotes in the early going, so I had no choice but to focus on NYSE stocks. AL was a low risk base and break setup. Once price took out the low hanging 200 MA, it was easy money.


VLO was gapper with a base setup in line with the ORH. I took a partial as price rallied up to the 62% Fibonacci extension of the previous day low to the ORH. I was stopped out on the balance with a tight stop.
AL chart - 5 minute timeframe, VLO 10 minute timeframe.



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Posted by Jamie at 5/13/2007 10:51:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: Base_Breakout, Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper



Friday, May 11, 2007NASDAQ Technical Problems
NASDAQ is having quote problems this morning.

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Posted by Jamie at 5/11/2007 09:46:00 AM 12 comments




Thursday, May 10, 2007After Hours Trading
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: UEPS +17.5%; SYNM +12.1%; ABTL +10.8%; JOBS +9.9%; NGPS +6.6%; AMPX +6.2%; NVDA +5.1%; TMY +4.8%; SBNY +4.5%; NFI +2.9%; GMET +2.2%; ASYT +1.8%; LCRD +1.8%; COSI +1.6%; BDY +1.4%; CPLA +1.4%; NLST +1.4%; SRVY +1.2%; COGO +1.1%; SPPR +1.1%; STSI +1.0%; CHCI +1.0%...

Trading Down: DESC -23.9%; MAMA -14.6%; BRLC -13.9%; BSQR -12.5%; TMTA -11.1%; INT -10.9%; MED -10.0%; THQI -6.3%; IMH -5.6%; NGAS -4.0%; PRXI 3.9%; AXCA -3.5%; KOG -3.4%; ACTS -3.0%; CEGE -2.7%; CPKI -1.7%; WRSP -1.6%; KNTA -1.5%; TDSC -1.3%; XOMA -1.3%; FACT -1.2%; CNR -1.2%...

Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: PGIC +12.2% (to reschedule Q1 2007 reporting and conference call); TOA +4.5% (double size with acquisition of Dallas/Fort worth division of Newmark Homes); LJPC +4.5% (names Niv Caviar chief business and financial officer); PRST +3.1% (appoints former Kodak executive Jeffrey Jacobson as President and CEO); DYN +1.3% (announces offering of at least $1.1 bln of senior unsecured notes)...

Trading Down: BRLC -13.9% (announces plans to offer $150 mln and certain of its stockholders plan to offer approx $22 mln common stock); FL -10.4% (sees Q1 EPS of $0.10-0.11 vs $0.36 Reuters consensus); MATH -2.1% (announces a $25 mln common stock offering pursuant to an effective shelf regist); DWRI -1.4% (satisfies Nasdaq requirements or continued listing; files form 10-k).

Courtesy of Briefing.com

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Posted by Jamie at 5/10/2007 10:34:00 PM 3 comments
Labels: Gapper



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Profit Taking on Higher Volume


The NASDAQ opened lower for the third straight session, but unlike the previous two days the bulls lacked the strength to lift prices beyond Tuesday's pivot point high. The weakness at the PP level, resulted in a reversal and a steady slide with only one attempt to regain another lost PP in mid-afternoon. It failed and the market swooned lower in the final 45 minutes, closing on its lows. All this profit taking was amid higher volume and judging by the daily timeframe above, it looks like the biggest one day decline since March. In the process we breached our trendline and closed two points below the 20 EMA.

I'll be watching how price reacts to the pivot points plotted on the 15 minute timeframe above at key reversal times. I'll also be watching the PPI data at 8:30 and Business Inventories at 10:00.
Is this just normal profit taking or are we heading into a corrective phase? It's too soon to tell, but if we breach the next level pivots (green/red lines) on a closing basis, the bulls will be in trouble.

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Posted by Jamie at 5/10/2007 08:02:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ, Pivot Point, Trendline, Volume



Trade of the Day - Amazon.com, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMZN)
AMZN was a short on a break of a bear flag. After closing near its highs yesterday, AMZN gapped down on the open sending a clear reversal signal. After that it was just a matter of finding the best entry point. By late morning, it carved out a bearish flag pattern and I shorted the break. It easily breached the pivot point support. I took a partial on a volume spike and I covered the balance after it carved out a bullish green hammer reversal bar. Notice how the pivot point held as resistance on the afternoon bounce.

SMSI was a NR7 on the daily chart yesterday as highlighted by Prospectus on Move the Markets. I moved my stop to breakeven when it looked like it might reverse. I left it there hoping for a bigger move and SMSI finally succumbed to weakness end of day.

MNST was a long on a break of the first 15 minute bar (green hammer). The third bar swoon came close to hitting my stop. I took a partial when price moved back up to $46.60 and I was stopped out on the balance just under $47.00. I don't like these disorderly type trades.

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Posted by Jamie at 5/10/2007 04:19:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Bearish_Flag, Dummy, Gapper



Pre-Market - Thursday May 10th
Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: IFON -20.2%, KNOT -16.9% (also downgraded to Sector Perform at CIBC), WFMI -12.0%, CRUS -9.5%, CRYP -9.2%, JACO -8.8%, WNG -8.7%, MEK -7.2%, EGY -6.9%, SIX -4.5%, PGS -4.5%, RMIX -4.4%... Retailers trading down on weak comps: ZUMZ -5.6%, URBN 5.5%, KIRK -4.6%, BEBE -4.5%, CHS -4.0%, PSUN -3.1%, GPS -2.3%, BONT -1.3%... Other news: DNDN -7.9% (downgraded to Sell at BofA; tgt cut to $4), RTP -5.7% & BHP -2.7% (UBS says RTP/BHP merger not illogical, not impossible, but unlikely), FNSR -4.5% (profit-taking after yesterday's move), BPHX -4.4% (names new CFO).

Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: HSOA +20.0%, TOA +14.9%, PEIX +14.7% (also upgraded to Hold at Hambrecht), MRGE +12.1% (also announces Fusion aXigate order in France), SCI +11.5%, NKTR +10.7% (also upgraded to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley), BNE +6.75, MAIL +5.6%, CLAY +5.3%, HLS +5.2%, KG +4.6%, LOCM +3.5% (very light volume), BVF +3.3%, CNTY +3.3%, DK +2.9%, TFSM +1.8% (reports & confirms it is assessing strategic alternatives; also downgraded to Hold at Jefferies)... Retailers trading up on strong comps: JOSB +5.7%, ARO +1.8%, COST +1.8%... Other news: TRU +20.9% (commences cash tender offer for all units of beneficial interest of Torch Energy Royalty Trust), ENTG +11.3% (commences "Dutch auction" tender to purchase up to 20.4 mln shares between $11-12.25), CEA +10.6% & ZNH +3.1% (Air France to add routes throughout China; also CEA and Singapore Air in final talks on stake), SPAR +9.4% (subsidiary receives $107.6 mln in new Orders in Military Vehicles), GGC +4.8% (upgraded to Buy at Citi), CBI +4.1% (Cramer positive on stock), ONT +3.5% (announces agreement with C2 Microsystems), FWLT +1.6% (tgt raised to $129 at Stifel).

Futures indicate a lower open for stocks. The bulk of April same-store sales figures (ANF, ANN, ARO, DDS, FD, GPS, JCP, WMT) checked in below expectations, raising concerns about the health of the consumer and giving investors an excuse to take some money off the table. In economic news, weekly Initial Claims unexpectedly fell 9K to 297K (consensus 315K), but the Mar Trade Deficit widened a larger than expected $63.9 bln (consensus $60.0 bln) and Apr Import Prices surged a larger than expected 1.3% in Apr, stirring inflation concerns.

Notable pre-market Calls include Upgrades: MA at Stifel Nicolaus, PEIX at WR Hambrecht; Downgrades: TFSM at Jefferies, DNDN at BofA, RSH at Credit Suisse, WFMI at HSBC, RTP at BMO Capital... On the Earnings calendar, SYNM is confirmed to report sometime during trading hours. After the close, 33 cos are confirmed to report including NVDA... On the Economic calendar, the Apr Treasury Budget (consensus $143.0 bln) will be released at 14:00ET.

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Posted by Jamie at 5/10/2007 09:07:00 AM 0 comments




Technical Trade Idea - Monster Worldwide, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:MNST) Flag Pole

Click on chart to enlarge

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Posted by Jamie at 5/10/2007 12:14:00 AM 4 comments
Labels: Bull_Flag



Wednesday, May 09, 2007Narrow Base & Break Patterns

Here are two B&B patterns I traded today from my usual suspects list. I noticed quite a few more such as MA and ICE. I close all of my positions before the FOMC release and I didn't care for the wild swings after so I waited a while before deciding if I wanted to wade back in. FFIV gave me a second chance so why not.



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Posted by Jamie at 5/09/2007 04:45:00 PM 8 comments
Labels: Base_Breakout



Dummy Trade of the Day - Foster Wheeler Ltd. (Public, NASDAQ:FWLT)
This is a 15 minute timeframe of FWLT. It gapped up on earnings and retraced about 25%. It carved out a hammer reversal bar and then set up series of mini base and break patterns on the 5 minute timeframe below. As you can see from the 5 min. chart, I actually entered before the ORH was taken out on a bullish base and break pattern. My exit was the 38% Fibonacci extension of the previous day low to the ORH. Classic Trader-X I think.



B was a failed gapper dummy setup. The blue and red arrows indicate my entry and exit. Why did it fail? What went wrong?



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Posted by Jamie at 5/09/2007 04:24:00 PM 7 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper



Tuesday, May 08, 2007Trade of the Day - Valero Energy Corporation (Public, NYSE:VLO)
The VLO setup on a pullback to the pivot point support area used to be one of my bread and butter patterns when I first started trading. So I guess you could say that I went back to my roots on this trade. VLO broke above its 2 day slope allowing for a low risk entry. I took a partial as price started to consolidate midday and moved my stop just under the last WRB preceding the consolidation. As I tightened my stop near the end of the session, I was stopped out.
AAPL carved out a NR7 bar within a flat base consolidation just prior to breaking out of the base. After that it held it 5 period MA on a closing basis throughout the afternoon. A doji in the last hour forced me to tighten my stop and I was taken out.



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Posted by Jamie at 5/08/2007 09:03:00 PM 6 comments
Labels: Base_Breakout, NR7, Pivot Point



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hefeiddd

Monday, May 07, 2007Watch List - CEPH, ESRX





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Posted by Jamie at 5/07/2007 10:02:00 PM 3 comments
Labels: Base_Breakout, Watchlist



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Low Volume, Narrow Range Day


A clear loss of momentum as most major tech sectors ended the session in the red. Hardware was strong and finally broke out of an ascending base on the strength of AAPL. Expect more of the same as there is little in the way of economic data until the FOMC policy statement on Wednesday. CSCO reports tomorrow AH.

Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: ADAM +11.2%; MDR +9.3%; HAYN +9.1%; WCG +8.1%; GTRC +8.0%; SONS +3.8%; BITS +3.3%; CENT +3.3%; VOLC +3.2%; WYNN +2.9%; MIVA +2.7%; TLEO +2.6%; STLW +2.5%; DGIT +2.3%; MCK +2.1%; ACMR +2.0%; DCEL +1.7%; TIE +1.4%; AMIE +1.3%; ECLG +1.1%; SQNM +1.1%; PKY +1.0%... Trading Down: CUTR -23.8%; ANSW -22.2%; HLYS -13.6%; PWAV -8.5%; EGLE -7.2%; PHTN -6.7%; FLR -3.9%; DOC -2.6%; SYKE -2.3%; MXWL -2.2%; JCOM -2.0%; WEL -1.9%; SBAC -1.6%; HGR -1.5%; QGEN -1.2%...

Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: TRIS +18.8% (awarded $30.0 mln contract to provide security services for federal facilities in Washington state); ASTM +12.5% (announces FDA approves Aastrom Phase III IND for treatment of osteonecrosis of the femoral head); PDLI +2.1% (Cofounder announces support for refocusing of PDLI)... Trading Down: CYBX -14.2% (announces CMS decision for VNS therapy; CMS confirmed its preliminary determination not to provide national coverage for VNS); AW -3.5% (announces secondary offering of 32.8 mln shares; shares to come from Apollo Mgmt); TRXI -2.4% (acknowledgement regarding Nasdaq rule 4350(D)(2)); KTCC -1.4% (wins new business with Imation); LGCY -1.3% (acquire oil and natural gas producing properties for $12.9 mln).

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Posted by Jamie at 5/07/2007 09:12:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ, NBR



Dummy Trade of the Day - Apple Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL)
This morning I was looking for a NRB in the 10:00 - 10:15 time slot similar to the DNDN setup on Friday. I perused the charts of my usual suspects and found a nice setup taking shape on the AAPL chart. AAPL took out resistance on the daily timeframe and once it had retested former resistance as support I moved my stop just under the red line. After consolidating for a few hours, AAPL setup another long entry above morning resistance. The entries and exits were managed on the 5 minute timeframes below. Shortly before 3:00, AAPL carved out a tweezer top reversal pattern on the 5 minute timeframe and it was time to tighten the stop. No need to use Fibonacci extensions on these tiny gaps as it will only limit your gains.


GROW was a gap down play on weak earnings as highlighted on this morning's Briefing.com gapper list. I waited for price to consolidate and for the downsloping 5 period EMA to catch up to price and took a dummy short entry. I took a partial as price fell into pivot point support from the daily timeframe and covered the balance shortly after as a tag of $23.00 precipitated a reversal. The daily pivot point lined up fairly well with the 25% Fibonacci extension. The low of the day ($23.00) was just about 10 cents above the 38% Fib. Ext.





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Posted by Jamie at 5/07/2007 04:09:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper, Pivot Point



Sunday, May 06, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Weekend Update
Since breaking out to new multi-year highs over the last two weeks, volume has strengthened, however, the ADX (momentum indicator) is still low. This divergence is worrisome.

Economic Calendar - Consumer credit at 3:00 EST.

Companies of interest reporting this week: CSCO on Tuesday and NVDA Thursday.






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Posted by Jamie at 5/06/2007 08:30:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Watch List - (NASDAQ: AMZN), (NYSE:CAL)
AMZN still looks bullish as it sets up a base and break pattern on a break of the swing high at $63.84. Friday's volume was not enough to push price beyond the retest area.

My entry was on a break of the pivot point. I traded AMZN on the 1 minute chart using a scale in approach to minimize risk. Long on break of $62.60 and added more as price held and bounced from the initial entry level.

I was stopped out with a nice profit as depicted on the 15 minute timeframe below.


CAL looks weak as it rallies on declining volume. I will be looking to short a breach of the trendline and I expect CAL to retest the 200 MA.



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Posted by Jamie at 5/06/2007 06:25:00 PM 5 comments
Labels: Base_Breakout, Short, Watchlist



Saturday, May 05, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - Dendreon Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:DNDN)
DNDN gapped up on the open and retraced 38% of the move from the previous day low to the ORH. The second bar bounced back but did not take out the ORH. The third bar was narrow on declining volume. As the third bar was taking shape, I noticed that we had a very orderly base and break pattern developing on the 5 minute timeframe. I placed a buy stop order two cents above the high of the base as shown on the chart below. An orderly base usually results in an orderly break and move higher. If you are looking for low risk entries with easy to manage trades, this is the pattern to look for and I've been noticing an abundance of them lately.

I took a partial when price retraced back to the 38% extension and I was stopped out on the balance at $21.30.

hefeiddd

Thursday, May 03, 2007Watch List - Amazon.com, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMZN)
AMZN has been consolidating its recent vertical momo move in its upper range on declining volume. A close look at the intraday timeframe shows that it has tagged its pivot point resistance zone three times this week. I also like the fact that the 5 day EMA has now reached price and is adding extra support. The PP zone is $62.44-$62.54 so set your alert for AMZN. If we take out the swing high, we could get another squeeze.





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Posted by Jamie at 5/03/2007 08:32:00 PM 5 comments
Labels: Pivot Point, Watchlist



Dummy Trade of the Day - Smith Micro Software, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:SMSI) and Monster Worldwide, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:MNST)
SMSI was a gap fade setup with a similar scenario as the CAL trade on Tuesday. SMSI gapped down on heavy selling. It breached it 200 day MA on the daily timeframe by about 60 cents before reversing. After regaining the ORL it consolidated and setup a momo, dummy long off of an NR7 signal bar. My entry was on the 1 minute timeframe where it had a very low risk, narrow base and break pattern.

MNST had a monster rally during lunch. By the time I noticed it, it was too far gone and I didn't want to chase. I watched as it consolidated up against resistance and then pulled back. I kept coming back to look at the chart and shortly after 2:00, I started watching closely as it attempted to recapture the base. Around 2:30 it setup a very low risk dummy long.

There was no lack of winning gapper charts today. Hope you had a great day!


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/03/2007 04:14:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Base_Breakout, Dummy, Gap_Fade, Gapper, NR7



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Success on Retest

A solid move off of support of the breakout point. Bulls are still in control.

Economic Calendar: Initial claims and Productivity at 8:30; ISM services at 10:00.

Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: NVEC +15.7%; SMDI +11.5%; SUNH +7.5%; BBBB +6.7%; RNWK +6.6%; SYMC +5.8%; CLRT +5.4%; OIIM +4.8%; PGTI +4.7%; BARE +4.7%; ARII +4.6%; GNSS +4.5%; ICOC +4.1%; GFIG +3.7%; CNQR +3.3%; DLB +3.3%; TRN +3.2%; VIRL +2.5%; GW +2.2%; SRX +1.9%; N** +1.7%; NABI +1.6%; DIOD +1.3%; CVCO +1.3%; FIX +1.0%; SPN +1.0%...

Trading Down: SMSI -11.3%; ACLS -11.0%; JDSU -9.9%; ANDE -8.7%; MXWL -8.5%; TWPG -7.6%; PSPT -6.6%; SUPG -5.8%; NWK -5.5%; CLUB -5.2%; APKT -5.1%; SUN -4.7%; HLX -4.3%; LVS -4.2%; ITRI -4.1%; ARG -3.8%; GFIG -3.7%; LVS -3.6%; VRSN -3.6%; APPB -3.2%; TTEK -2.6%; HS -2.5%; HHGP -2.4%; PTSI -2.4%; LMNX -2.4%; DRCO -2.3%; VCLK -2.1%; GSX -2.1%; GSF -1.7%; TWTC -1.6%; MIL -1.6%; NSIT -1.6%; PDLI -1.5%; ASGN -1.4%; EXPD -1.4%; FLDR -1.3%; OTEX -1.2%; WLT -1.1%; ASPV -1.1%; IOSP -1.0%; SYMM -1.0%; STAN -1.0%...

Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: YMI +27.4% (reports AeroLEF randomized phase IIb trial meets primary endpoint in patients with post-surgical pain); BUF +15.1% (announces FDA approval of Sojourn Sevoflurane); MRX +10.9% (announces FDA approval of PERLANE); CEGE +3.4% (presents interim Phase 1 clinical data of CERE-110 for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease); PAE +3.3% (acquires worldwide distribution rights to ensemble drama "Winged Creatures"); POT +2.9% (announces three-for-one stock split and 100% dividend increase); KAI +2.3% (announces repurchase of up to $20 mln of its equity securities effective May 2, 2007 through May 2, 2008); PTEN +1.8% (reports drilling activity for April 2007); ANDS +1.1% (presents results from its NS5b HCV program at International Conference on Antiviral Research); CALP +1.1% (licenses Monogram Biosciences' microfluidics patents; terms not disclosed); SGR +1.1% (signs letters of intent with Petrokemya for equipment and services to expand capacity of Ethylene unit in Saudi Arabia)... Trading Down: ALGT -2.8% (reports April load factor of 82.1%); DRCO -2.3% (on winning team for $800 mln Air Force contract); TUTR -1.1% (David Smith to resume position as Chairman).

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/03/2007 12:46:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



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hefeiddd

Wednesday, May 02, 2007Technical Trade - Akamai Technologies, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AKAM)
AKAM rallied hard on the open and pulled back sharply. Then it started narrowing its trading range below the $44.00 resistance level on declining volume. It started to look like an ascending triangle so I placed a buy stop order at $44.02. I was filled as AKAM broke its ascending triangle on a volume spike and price quickly moved towards the pivot point resistance level where I took a partial. AKAM tried to break through the pivot four times today. I exited the balance of my position on the third strike.

The 15 minute chart below shows that AKAM has carved out a nice base over the last two sessions. Keep this one on the watchlist as it is oversold and should get a bounce soon.





[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/02/2007 05:24:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Ascending_Triangle, Volume



Dummy Trade of the Day - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (Public, NYSE:CMG)

CMG was a WOR B&B pattern with an obvious red flag - extremely wide gap (7%). With red flags I reduce my share size accordingly. Price quickly took off in my favor and when I was up almost 2 pts. I took a partial. My target was the 38% Fibonacci extension, but unfortunately I was stopped out during the midday swoon and missed that huge move in the afternoon. By exception, I'm using the 10 minute timeframe popularized by Victoria.








[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/02/2007 04:45:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper



Tuesday, May 01, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day (Gap Fill) - Continental Airlines, Inc. (Public, NYSE:CAL)
After gapping down on the open, CAL set up a low risk base and break pattern in early afternoon. My target was a gap fill at which point I took a partial. CAL continued higher and held the gap fill point as support on the pullback. It closed strong and looks poised for a technical bounce based on the recapture of the 200 MA and the high volume, bullish reversal green hammer on the daily timeframe below.





[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/01/2007 04:45:00 PM 8 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gap_Fill



Monday, April 30, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bearish Engulfing Pattern

Anyone who read my weekend update was not surprised by today's market. All of those dojis and stars were screaming reversal. Today's lower volume is likely due to the fact that the selling did not take hold until after 2:00 EST. Is this mere profit taking or the start of a deeper corrective phase? I don't know, but the rounded top on the 60 minute chart implies that we have an over supply at this level. In the short-term I am targeting the area 2500 - 2480.

Economic calendar: ISM index at 10:00.

Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: SPAN +9.5%; SVR +9.3%; CHE +8.6%; MTW +6.3%; WMGI +5.5%; AMCS +5.1%; GMRK +3.8%; DPL +3.0%; DVSA +2.4%; FMC +2.0%; FEIC +1.8%; BRKR +1.7%; TXRH +1.7%; XPRT +1.7%; FFIC +1.6%; MEDI +1.5%; BTFG +1.4%; DW +1.2%; YDNT +1.0%... Trading Down: ROCM -10.5%; IVAC -10.2%; VMC -7.9%; RCII -6.6%; RIMG -3.4%; GNW -2.2%; SMSC -2.1%; VRTX -1.4%; AUDC -1.3%; CVA -1.2%; EXAC -1.1%; CTX -1.0%...

Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: EDS +3.3% (Coca-Cola FEMSA extends relationship with EDS); VASC +2.7% (announces initial sales of Thrombi-Pad 3x3 Hemostat to King Pharmaceuticals); TRY +1.9% (provides update on corporate restructuring); SKX +1.9% (wins major victory in Asics lawsuit)... Trading Down: CC -8.0% (revises FY07 results and lowers FY08 outlook); AHM -4.2% (announces public offering comprised of 4,000,000 shares of its common stock); UAUA -1.0% (United Airlines signs five-year beverage agreement with Coca-Cola).

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/30/2007 09:46:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Bearish Engulfing, NASDAQ



Swing Trade Update - TODCO (Public, NYSE:THE)
My $46.00 target for this swing trade was surpassed on the OR today and I sold the balance of my position.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/30/2007 07:10:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Watchlist



Dummy Trade of the Day - International Securities Exchange Hldgs (Public, NYSE:ISE)
ISE gapped up about $20.00 from Friday's close due to a merger announcement. According to Briefing.com the agreed merger price is $67.50. The significance of that can be noted on the chart above. On a base and break pattern, ISE rallied from $65.60 (base) to a high of $67.45 which is just nickel below the announced acquisition offer. Because M&A gaps are so wide, it is generally pointless to base the target on the Fibonacci extension.


These types of setups are prone to failure, so if you plan on trading these breaks, make sure you have a pre-defined stop. When the stock is about to break, the bid and ask on the market depth screen, become very thick and very tight ie. no spread. If I don't see the prerequisite market depth, I avoid these trades altogether.

Int'l Securities Exchange: Deutsche Borse AG says contemplating bid for ISE for approx. $2.8 bln cash, or $67.50 a share (45.72 ) -Update : The Supervisory Board of Deutsche Borse AG, the Supervisory Board of SWX Swiss Exchange and the ISE Board of Directors will decide on the transaction today. Further notice will be issued as soon as a decision is made.
Courtesy of Briefing.com


VLO is extended and has made a series of lower highs since topping out on Thursday. Today's break of an inverted shallow base was a low risk shorting opportunity.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/30/2007 05:52:00 PM 6 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper

hefeiddd

Sunday, April 29, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Weekly Update



Over the last two weeks all but two candles have been dojis and stars (hammers are part of the star family of candlesticks). If dojis represent indecision, and stars with no overlapping bodies, foreshadow reversals, we should expect some sort of pullback soon. At the very least I expect we will retest the breakout point this week.

Economic calendar for tomorrow: Personal income/spending and Core PCE inflation at 8:30; Chicago PMI at 9:45; and Construction spending at 10:00.

The $SOX below looks poised for a retest of the breakout point.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/29/2007 08:40:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Dummy Trade of the Day - NutriSystem Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:NTRI)

NTRI gapped up on Thursday and pulled back sharply. It did not setup a valid retracement entry on Thursday because by the time it carved out a reversal pattern, it was too close to resistance from the morning's sideways consolidation. Friday morning price held above Thursday's low on the open and began another sideways consolidation just above its rising 50 period MA. By the time price was trading back near the ORH, it had carved out a shallow bullish base. I took a long entry on a break of the ORH. My preliminary target was Thursday's midday resistance level at $62.00. Price easily broke that level so I stayed in the trade and took a partial as price consolidated near the $63.00 level. Former resistance held as support ($62.00) and I was able to add another pt. as price pivoted off of support and rallied up to $64.00 - another congestion area from the previous day.

N.B. Some gappers don't setup a good entry until the day following the gap so I am making a point of checking yesterday's gapper list for any obvious dummy type entries.





[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/29/2007 08:34:00 AM 5 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gapper



Thursday, April 26, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Choppy Extension
A choppy session following Wednesday's breakout and ahead of tomorrow's GDP data at 8:30.

Earnings were mixed AH but the internet sector is still momo judging from reaction to BIDU's results.

Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: BIDU +22.5%; NMSS +16.3%; VSEA +15.8%; SWIR +14.8%; SIMO +12.4%; IM +11.5%; NETL +10.8%; MEE +10.2%; GB +7.8%; QDEL +6.3%; INTL +5.7%; CTV +5.6%; CLRK +4.9%; MSFT +4.1%; MFE +3.9%; INSP +3.8%; OPLK +3.6%; FLEX +3.5%; MCHP +3.2%; OSIP +2.7%; EVST +2.6%; ABAX +2.2%; NFLD +2.2%; AMIS +2.0%; SNCR +1.8%; SPF +1.7%; NATI +1.5%; HITT +1.4%; TUNE +1.3%; SCRX +1.2%; CW +1.2%; VLCM +1.0%; ELX +1.0%; SPRT +1.0%...

Trading Down: WFR -10.7%; BOOM -9.7%; AVID -9.5%; INTV -9.2%; VPRT -8.1%; PSYS -7.2%; BRCM -6.6%; CNET -6.4%; YRCW -6.0%; CLDN -5.4%; ACTU -5.3%; CALD -5.3%; MSCC -5.1%; BLG -5.0%; RACK -4.6%; FALC -4.6%; IDTI -4.5%; XXIA -4.5%; SNDK -4.4%; FMD -4.4%; CNXT -4.0%; DOX -3.7%; SCUR -3.7%; CENX -3.2%; OPWV -3.0%; ZIGO -2.9%; CF -2.9%; EMN -2.3%; TRID -2.2%; KYPH -2.1%; COHU -2.1%; LSCC -2.1%; MRCY -2.1%; NEWP -2.0%; RSYS -1.8%; WBSN -1.8%; DECK -1.4%; CKH -1.2%; ONNN -1.2%; JJSF -1.0%...

Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: MDII +11.7% (receives first order for strategic U.S. naval support center project in Europe); IPCS +8.7% (Declares $11.00 per share special cash dividend); IMAX +1.7% (provides status update in connection with delayed filing); AVA +1.1% (files for electric and natural gas rate adjustments in Washington)... Trading Down: PMACA -1.0% (announces approval of extraordinary dividend from its run-off reinsurance business).

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/26/2007 10:01:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Trade of the Day - Amazon.com, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMZN)
I should have entitled this the trade of week as opposed to the trade of the day. I am exploring a new trading strategy as I have noticed that several gapper stocks that trade at extreme volume levels and close at or near the high of the day, have a continuation play the following day which is often better than the initial gap trade. A good example is CMI which closed on its high Friday and opened strong on Monday.

AMZN held the afternoon low as support on the open and offered a low risk entry above the second bar high. It rallied a bit and came back in for a retest of yesterday's high as support. When support held, I added to my position as this retest was confirmation that AMZN was strong. In the last hour a short squeeze took hold - sweet!







Last night I noted a couple of high volume gapper stocks closing on their highs in addition to AMZN. I did not trade them but you can take a look at the charts of SEPR and HHH on your own.
Tonight, a quick review of high volume gappers, shows three interesting candidates for tomorrow - FFIV, SWKS, VDSI.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/26/2007 06:39:00 PM 15 comments
Labels: Squeeze


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hefeiddd

Wednesday, April 25, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - High Volume Breakout
Today's high volume breakout was led by AMZN (great earnings) and the internet sector, as well as solid continuation in the semiconductor sector. Yesterday's hammer/hanging man resolved itself in favor of a bullish hammer. Initial claims tomorrow at 8:30 and here is tonight's post market gapper's list courtesy of Briefing.com


Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: OI +17.9%; FFIV +16.0%; NTRI +13.1%; WEN +12.6%; GDI +10.3%; DBTK +9.5%; MTH +8.1%; PLXS +7.7%; AAPL +7.5%; RKT +7.4%; TUP +7.3%; SORC +6.7%; SWKS +6.3%; PDFS +6.2%; XLNX +5.0%; SWK +4.9%; ISIG +4.6%; NUVA +4.5%; MRH +4.2%; ZMH +3.9%; MXIM +3.3%; AEIS +2.8%; DAC +2.5%; TGIS +2.4%; GRA +2.3%; GSIC +2.2%; DSCM +2.1%; TEX +2.0%; QI +2.0%; AV +1.8%; LOOP +1.6%; MIPS +1.3%; NANO +1.2%...

Trading Down: ISLN -21.2%; DVW -11.8%; SMMX -10.4%; BLDR -7.4%; ARBA -6.5%; HLIT -6.4%; CYBE -6.3%; LSI -5.5%; VAR -5.2%; SKX -5.0%; EMKR -4.1%; SCSS -4.0%; AB -3.7%; RMBS -2.9%; FORM -2.9%; RYL -2.5%; MUR -2.2%; NLS -2.0%; STR -1.9%; RARE -1.9%; IRBT -1.8%; KOMG -1.7%; TSCO -1.5%; PHM -1.4%; CTXS -1.3%; MRVC -1.1%; WSH -1.0%...

Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: PSAI +14.0% (to become private company); MATW +5.1% (will replace Swift Transportation in the S&P MidCap 400 index); GGBM +3.0% (complies with NASDAQ requirement regarding disclosure of auditor opinion qualification); HLF +2.4% (raises Q1 guidance; issues Q2 guidance and raises FY07 guidance); DSCM +2.1% (expands product selection with launch of drop ship); ULTR +1.3% (completes successful follow-on offering of common stock priced at $19.00/share); SNDK +1.2% (and Qimonda to jointly develop and manufacture mobile storage solutions for the multichip mkt for mobile handset vendors); NANO +1.2% (announces CFO Douglas J. McCutcheon has resigned)...

Trading Down: AFFX -11.2%; EEE -5.1% (Kevin Collins named Interim President and CEO replacing Mark Sexton); LGBT -3.3% (sees Q1 revs of $16-17 mln vs $18.33 mln Reuters consensus); FORM -2.9% (Guiding Q2 EPS at $0.32-35 vs. 0.36 consensus on GAAP basis. Revs at $107-$111 mln vs. $108.6 mln consensus).


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Posted by Jamie at 4/25/2007 09:49:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Dummy Trade of the Day - Riverbed Technology, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:RVBD)

This setup is starting to be my bread and butter gapper trade. I look for stocks that gap up and retrace up to 38% of the move from the previous day low to the early morning high. In the case of RVBD and TFSM, the early morning high = the ORH. I then look for a base or reversal to form near the rising 5 period EMA. I prefer if there is sufficient room to move before hitting the ORH, so that if a failure occurs, I can still generate a profit. Extremely high volume (2-4 times recent range) is essential when stocks gap up more than 5% and both of these stocks met that criteria.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/25/2007 06:18:00 PM 12 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper



Tuesday, April 24, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Another Consolidation Day


A heavy volume selloff early in the session due to continued weakness in the economic stats for housing was offset by renewed confidence in semiconductors on TXN and ALTR earnings. The $SOX broke out of a five month base today and if this break holds, we might be in for some more upside. However, it should be noted that today's higher volume can be attributed to the early selloff. The NASDAQ continues to consolidate near resistance highs, but today's candlestick could be either a bullish hammer after a very small decline since Friday's high, or a hanging man signaling the beginning of a pullback. A hanging man needs confirmation so we'll see tomorrow.

Economic calendar - Durable orders at 8:30, new home sales at 9:00, crude inventories at 10:30, and Fed's Beige book at 2:00 EST.

AKAM, AAPL, and QCOM report earnings tomorrow AH.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/24/2007 09:33:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Hanging_Man, NASDAQ, SOX



Watch List Update - TODCO (Public, NYSE:THE)
A follow up to my April 16th watch list. As noted at the time, THE was my strongest candidate. It was also the slowest to take flight, but it was worth the wait. The first chart is a weekly view with the pivot point target. The second chart is the daily timeframe, which shows the ascending base and break, and the third chart in the 15 minute, intraday view of my trade so far.

I will be posting future watch lists after tax season is over.

[size=85%]If you are interested in nightly watch lists with these types of base and break patterns, please check out highchartpatterns. In February, I took the free, one month trial and I was really impressed with the stock picks and the timeliness of the nightly newsletter. Oh, and most importantly, I did have several very successful trades over the course of the trial that came directly from their picks.

hefeiddd

Dummy Trade of the Day - CDW Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:CDWC)
CDWC gapped up on high volume this morning. It managed to take out the ORH on the third bar. The fourth bar carved out a tweezer top reversal pattern and the stock failed to hold the ORH as support. The failure resulted in a fast move to the downside. After retracing almost 38% of the move from yesterday's low to the morning high, it printed a bullish reversal bar and regained its 5 period EMA in the process. I took a long entry on the next bar. My target was a full retracement to the morning high, but I was prepared to bail if it stalled at the ORH. As you can see from the chart, when the target was reached, CDWC still looked strong so I took a partial. Shortly after taking out the morning high, it started carving out a bearish evening star, so I folded.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/24/2007 03:42:00 PM 8 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper



Monday, April 23, 2007One That Didn't Work - Hansen Natural Corp. (Public, NASDAQ:HANS)
Here's another dummy entry I took today. HANS gapped up and retraced 25% of the move from Friday's low to the ORH. It setup a low risk long below the ORH and broke the ORH decisively on the 6th bar. After the break it came back in for a retest but failed. I exited the trade immediately. No point in staying in a trade that can't hold the ORH after such a decisive break. The trade was profitable despite the failure, however, it could have easily turned into a scratch or a small loss if I had not applied my trading rule.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/23/2007 07:35:00 PM 9 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper



Dummy Trade of the Day - Apple Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL)
AAPL gapped up on high volume and carved out two bullish bars before reversing and consolidating the first leg up. It retraced 25% of the move from Friday's low to the 10:00 high and held the ORH as support. As price broke the fourth bar high, I took a dummy long entry. I took a partial on weakness midday. Price pulled back towards its rising 20 MA and reversed for a more bullish afternoon rally which almost reached the 100% Fibonacci extension.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/23/2007 07:00:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper



Sunday, April 22, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Weekly Update
The bullish volume on Friday is likely due to Options expiration. Friday's gap up resulted in a full retracement of the Feb. - March meltdown. Still the ADX shows that it was achieved on declining momentum, confirmed by the volume trend lower. Continued favorable earnings will determine if we can maintain the bullish bias and move higher.

No economic data tomorrow. AMGN and JNPR report AH.




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/22/2007 11:06:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Friday, April 20, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (Public, NYSE:ANF)
The whole market gapped up this morning so I fine tuned my gapper scan to stocks over $50.00 in order to make the list more manageable. This is classic Trader-X style - break of ORH preceded by a strong bullish candle which closes on its high supported closely by the rising 5 period EMA. It did not quite reach the 38% Fibonacci level, but only because time ran out.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/20/2007 08:07:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper



Thursday, April 19, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - Reliance Steel & Aluminum (Public, NYSE:RS)
RS is very similar to OSG yesterday. I found RS on my 10:00 gapper scan. The wide OR which took out yesterday's low made it difficult to map out the Fibonacci extension, so I used today's low and the 10:15 high as my end points. I exited as price approached the 38% extension. I also took a second low risk entry in late afternoon.

I did not run a gap down scan because when the whole market opens lower, I find the gap down scan unmanageable. SMSI is one of my usual suspects and it set up a dummy short just below the OR low.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/19/2007 04:17:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper



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hefeiddd

Wednesday, April 18, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - Overseas Shipholding Group Inc. (Public, NYSE:OSG)
OSG gapped up on the open and carved out a WRB, followed immediately by an orderly pullback. It printed a three bar bullish morning star reversal pattern just above the rising 5 period EMA, followed by a NR7 as volume contracted to its morning low. I waited until price took out the high of the morning star pattern before entering long. I estimated at least 2R even if the pattern failed at the OR high. That did not happen and as you can see from my two exit points. It doesn't get much better than this. I took a partial at the 38% Fibonacci extension and exited the balance at $67.00. The volume pattern is picture perfect - declining volume on the pullback and progressively increasing volume on the rally. On a daily basis, today's volume is about 5 times average.

Trader-X also traded OSG - read his post for more insights - also check his archives for similar trades to OSG.


MEDI was a midday pullback reversal setup. It met most of my criteria for this setup except the increasing volume on the rally.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/18/2007 07:33:00 PM 8 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper



Tuesday, April 17, 2007Watch List - CKFR, ERTS
CKFR gapped down last week and has since closed the gap. Now its heading lower and looks ready to fall below $36.00. Support levels are indicated by the blue lines where we can expect some consolidation. Review the 15 minute timeframe below.


ERTS has carved out a multi-month base and looks ready to breakout above the pivot point - $54.48.





[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/17/2007 11:51:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Pivot Point



Trade of the Day - ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ACAD)
ACAD carved out a NR7 bar yesterday and based on yesterday's late day price action, I indicated in last night's watch list that I thought it would break to the upside. It did and this is how I traded it. Very choppy, I might add. A better NR7 play would have been SMSI, but I did not pick up on it in last night's review.

JCOM was a continuation play from Sunday's watch list. I think it needs to pull back here because it has had an extended run.

AKAM and GSIC did not trigger an entry. NVDA took out its pivot point in pre-market and I tried to pick some up on a pullback, but did not get a fill. I did, however, buy on a break of the pre-market high for a quick 50 cent scalp on the open. NVDA was not low risk and I do not recommend that tactic to new traders. VRSN swing was stopped out.





[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/17/2007 04:24:00 PM 7 comments
Labels: NR7, Watchlist



Watch List - AKAM, GSIC, ACAD








[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/17/2007 01:17:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: Watchlist



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bearish Gap Filled

Firmly bullish price action despite the lacklustre volume. As we approach the February's highs and an overbought posture, don't be surprised if we pause or retrace some of this last leg up on very short notice. This afternoon's particularly low volume is an early warning sign.

Economic Calendar: CPI, Housing starts and building permits at 8:30; Industrial production and capacity utilization at 9:15.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/17/2007 12:26:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ

hefeiddd

Monday, April 16, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - Downey Financial Corp. (Public, NYSE:DSL)
DSL gapped up on high volume and reached the 38% Fibonacci extension shortly before noon. During lunch it carved out a bearish evening star reversal pattern and proceeded to pullback in an orderly fashion. The 16th bar had a volume spike which foreshadowed the end of the pullback. Three bars later we had a bullish engulfing pattern just above the the rising 20 period ema which allowed for a low risk entry. Price climbed back up to the morning highs on increasing volume and eventually surpassed the 50% Fib. extension before coming back in at the close.

These types of pullbacks are fairly easy to spot from the gappers. In my experience they work best when all of these elements are in play:
1. volume spike just before the completion of the pullback;
2. price stays above the rising 20 period ema on a closing basis.
3. common bullish reversal pattern marks a change in direction - hammer/inverted hammer, bullish engulfing bar, tweezer bottom, piercing line...etc.
4. declining volume on the pullback and increasing volume on the reversal rally.

I also prefer smaller, tighter candles with small shadows.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/16/2007 10:47:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper



Watch List Trades - JCOM, NVDA, THE, VRSN
j2 Global Communications, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:JCOM) was a pivot point base and break pattern from last night's watch list. I entered long on a break of the ORH instead of waiting for the pivot point to be taken out. Either way, it was a winner.

NVIDIA Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:NVDA) was a pivot point setup on the 15 minute timeframe. The OR failed to hold the pivot point on a closing basis, so I tried to get in on the first tradable pullback. It failed again on the retest, with the result - we'll call it a scratch. The chart above is a 5 minute timeframe. This setup remains in play, we just need a little more strength in the $SOX.

TODCO (Public, NYSE:THE) which was my strongest pick from the watchlist, pulled back to support of the rising 50 period MA and setup a low risk entry. Initially it took out the pivot point but failed the retest, so I was stopped out. It did manage to regain the PP into the close and remains in play for tomorrow.

CREE gapped down and did nothing all day so we'll come back to later, maybe.


VeriSign, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:VRSN) is a trade idea from Brian Shannon at Alpha Trends
The first chart is the daily timeframe. The blue line is the breakout point and the red line is potential resistance from February's long upper shadow. The second chart is the 15 minute timeframe, which shows my buy stop entry above the breakout point. I took a partial when price dipped under the red line and I'm holding the balance for a swing. My stop will be about 10 cents below the afternoon low.





[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/16/2007 04:57:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Pivot Point, Retest, Watchlist



Watch List - CREE, JCOM, THE, NVDA



These are all daily charts except NVDA which is a 15 minute timeframe. THE is the best setup because the base has been building for a long time. Check out the weekly timeframe of THE and you will see what I mean.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/16/2007 12:40:00 AM 2 comments
Labels: Watchlist



Friday, April 13, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - SLM Corporation (Public, NYSE:SLM)
SLM gapped up on the open on high volume. It carved out a bearish looking doji stick on the OR but held the OR low as support. The third bar failed to take out the ORH on a closing basis and carved out a long upper shadow. Despite the long upper shadows, I still took a low risk, dummy entry on a break of the 6th and 7th bars, the latter of which was NR7. I liked the volume pattern on the consolidation and the proximity to the upward sloping 5 period MA as well as the NR7. This convinced me that this trade could work despite the early choppiness. My preliminary target was pivot point resistance dating back to February 1st and 2nd. I took a partial as price approached the PP and I was stopped out on the balance shortly after. I took another entry in mid-afternoon as price started moving up from its narrow trading range. Needless to say the Fibonacci extension was not reached, but SLM did close near the highs of the session and may be a good candidate for some follow through next week.

The EBAY setup was a Brian Shannon - Alpha Trends trade idea (base & break) from last night. I starting scaling in just before the market open and picked up some more on the open. It worked out very nicely - Thanks Brian!

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/13/2007 04:25:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper, Pivot Point



Thursday, April 12, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - MedImmune, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:MEDI)
MEDI gapped up on the open and presented a shallow base and break entry in the afternoon. I didn't like the volume on the break, but it worked out. The doji star about an hour into the trade resulted in a stop out.



The above chart is a wide range view of DNDN. As highlighted last night, DNDN was a watchlist stock looking for a reversal. The gap down into pivot point support offered a compelling opportunity for a technical bounce after a few days of bleeding. The 5 minute timeframe below, highlights my entry, exits and stop management.





[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/12/2007 10:06:00 PM 6 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gap_Fill, Gapper, Pivot Point, Volume



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hefeiddd

Thursday, April 12, 2007The Trade That Wasn't - CDW Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:CDWC)

The first chart is a daily timeframe of CDWC which gapped up on the open this morning. I plotted the resistance line in blue before the open. As we can see on the 15 minute timeframe below, resistance was taken out in the OR but failed. It was followed by an orderly pullback and a second challenge on the 6th bar. Why didn't I take the trade? Red flags: after the OR, volume all but dried up, the preceding bar (bar 5) was red, resistance too close to OR high and failure would result in a scratch or a small loss. Other than that, the 5 period MA was in close range and the preceding bar was narrow, allowing for acceptable risk management.

After the second break of resistance, CDWC carved out a bearish evening star reversal pattern, followed by a bullish morning star. We'll say those two patterns neutralized each other. That's when one of our readers stepped in on a break of the red line (ORH) indicated by the blue arrow. Again, as we approached the lunch time doldrums, this break just couldn't move higher on this tepid volume. I like shallow bases but in the case of CDWC, there was sharp pullback and by the time, price retraced back to the ORH, it was exhausted.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/12/2007 08:47:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gapper, Volume



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bearish Engulfing Pattern
Today's bearish engulfing reversal pattern marks some profit taking after this weak second leg up from the March lows. Initially, I'm looking at at 62% Fibonacci retracement of the second leg which lines up nicely with the bullish gap support highlighted in green on the chart above.

RIMM earnings were not all that inspiring as we can see from the AH trade below.



Is DNDN setting up for a reversal?


Economic calendar: Import/Export Prices and Initial Claims at 8:30.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/12/2007 12:41:00 AM 4 comments
Labels: Bearish Engulfing, Fibonacci, NASDAQ



Wednesday, April 11, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - CheckFree Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:CKFR)
I missed the pre-market and the open due to a dentist appointment so I found CKFR on the Briefing.com gappers list. I went long on a bullish engulfing like reversal pattern. The OR high and 38% Fibonacci retracement level lined up fairly well so I exited the entire position. I left too much money in the table here, in retrospect, I should have taken a partial. My stop which was two cents below the first consolidation bar following the two WRBs, would have kept me in the trade for the next leg up.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/11/2007 09:42:00 PM 11 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Starting to Fill Gap
Despite the uptick in volume, the session felt very choppy and good setups were hard to find. We need a catalyst to add some momentum in this market - either PPI on Friday or earnings which are starting to trickle in this week with RIMM set to report AH tomorrow.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/11/2007 12:59:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Tuesday, April 10, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - Seagate Technology (Public, NYSE:STX)
If a stock cannot take out its OR low on a closing basis, it sometimes sets up a nice long opportunity. I look for the stock to regain its 5 period MA and consolidate that win in a narrow range. In the case of STX, we had an inside NR7 bar just before the break. I took a partial as price came back to its OR high. I lost track of time otherwise I would have unloaded 100%.

DNDN capitulated on a huge volume spike mid-morning. I waited for a base to form, allowing for a low risk dummy entry. I exited 50% when price tagged its pivot point and let go the rest when it became obvious, DNDN was going to test its trendline. I tried to short on the trendline breach, but again, there were no shares available to short through IB.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/10/2007 04:08:00 PM 8 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gapper, Pivot Point

hefeiddd

Monday, April 09, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - Dendreon Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:DNDN)
DNDN gapped up and presented two low risk entries: break of third bar high; and my entry which was similar to last Thursday - NR base & break pattern with support of the rising 5 period ema. I took a partial as price tagged the 38% Fibonacci extension. This bar produced a huge volume spike and I felt that the move was almost over. I figured it would carve out a lower high and this would be my cue to exit the balance. But it slowly made its way up to 50% extension and I exited as price tagged $24.00.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/09/2007 04:10:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Base_Breakout, Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper



Sunday, April 08, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Weekly Update
A solid performance on the week for the NASDAQ. Thursday's low volume rally was particularly impressive, closing on the high of the day. There's not much in Friday's employment data to set the tone for next week with most metrics coming in higher than consensus.

The next challenge for the bulls is to break through the bearish gap resistance left over from the beginning of February's meltdown. It should be noted that a low volume rally is a sign of weakness. That's not to say, we are going to fall over right here, but it is something that I will be following closely as it could foreshadow a change in the long-term trend. No economic data until Wednesday.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/08/2007 08:37:00 AM 4 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Thursday, April 05, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - Dendreon Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:DNDN)
The first chart is a wide view of the 15 minute timeframe of DNDN's trading pattern since it gapped up last week on news of the FDA committee voting in favor of its prostrate cancer drug "Provenge". I traded it on that first day for a bounce mid-day and I tried to short it on Tuesday but there were no shares available. Knowing that it was heavily shorted, I decided to keep an eye on it for a possible short squeeze and set an alert at Tuesday's high. Today the alert went off. At first I thought it was a retest of the high, but then it started to consolidate in a very narrow range. A quick look at the daily timeframe and I knew that yesterday's bar was NR7. So I set a buy stop order two ticks above the base of the narrow trading range. The 15 minute timeframe below outlines my setup, entry and exits.


NTRI is a slightly different type of base and break pattern because the base extends over two trading days. Notice how the trade doesn't really take off until it breaks above the upper shadow from yesterday afternoon. I exited my position at the 62% Fibonacci extension of this morning's low to the base. After tagging the 75% extension, NTRI carved out an ominous looking tweezer top and came all the way to its base - a round trip.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/05/2007 09:28:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Base_Breakout, Dummy, Fibonacci, NR7, Retest, Tweezer_Top



Wednesday, April 04, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - ImClone Systems Incorporated (Public, NASDAQ:IMCL)
IMCL gapped up on the open. The OR was weak but held the pivot point from Wednesday as support. The fourth bar was an inverted hammer signaling a potential reversal. The next two bars were inside bars, but the increase in price confirmed the reversal was in play. I entered close to the rising 5 period EMA on the seventh bar. There was plenty of room to run before reaching the OR high, so I felt the setup was good and would generate a profit even if the break of the OR high failed. I took a partial when price tagged the OR high because I didn't feel enough momentum and didn't like the upper shadow on the previous bar. My original stop was the fourth bar low and I moved my stop to breakeven after taking the partial.

I re-entered my full share size after IMCL took out the OR high and came back in for a retest. I took a partial as price approached the 25% extension and moved my stop to $41.98 (two cents below the pivot at $42.00 on the 1 minute timeframe). After testing the 25% extension, price pulled back before rallying up to the 38% extension.

This is a slow moving trade because the angle of the rising EMA is 45 degrees throughout most of the session. The pace picks up as does the MA angle after the OR high is taken out. Don't be over zealous in tightening your stops on slow moving trades like this.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/04/2007 04:23:00 PM 9 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper



Tuesday, April 03, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - A Break from Sideways Trading
The NASDAQ gapped up on the open and rallied on strong volume for most of the morning. All tech sectors participated in the rally. We are closing in on pivot resistance around 2460, followed by bearish gap resistance near 2470. I'm watching the ADX closely as we approach a potential crossover. Despite the good trading session, I'm not sure if there was a lot of new money being put to work today as the overall volume was up but not out of the ordinary.

Economic Calendar: Factory Orders and ISM Services at 10:00; and Crude inventories at 10:30.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/03/2007 08:59:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



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hefeiddd

Tuesday, April 03, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - NutriSystem Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:NTRI)
NTRI did not participate in this morning's rally but did set up a low risk base and break in mid-afternoon. I had originally intended this as scalp trade up to resistance (blue line), but NTRI blew right through resistance and held it as support on a closing basis, so I stayed with it. Sweet!

AL was a narrow trading range, base and break pattern. The narrower the base and the longer the basing period, the more momo the move. I exited my position a little prematurely as price tagged the 62% Fibonacci extension.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/03/2007 04:24:00 PM 12 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Another Inside Day
The ISM economic data released at 10:00 pulled prices back in and we had another snooze fest of a trading day. So we have two inside days following last Thursday's bounce off of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recovery from the mid March low. The lack of economic data tomorrow might have a positive impact.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/03/2007 12:06:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Monday, April 02, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - Cephalon, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CEPH)
There were not a lot of good dummy trading setups today. CEPH gapped up on a Jeffries upgrade and setup a base and break pattern in early afternoon. It was slow at first but around 3:00 volume picked up and it looked like it might rally into the close. Unfortunately, the 38% Fibonacci extension proved to be too much resistance and I was stopped out as it was about to roll over.

P.S. - Tom C. over at Trader-X also traded CEPH.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/02/2007 04:17:00 PM 5 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper



Sunday, April 01, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Q1 Ends on Indecisive Note
We did not have the usual quarter-end window dressing and we ended on an indecisive note. If we look back over the month of March, we only had two really bullish sessions: the rally off of the pivot low and the response to the last FOMC meeting. Conclusion - if we don't see some big money coming into the market in the first few days of April, it's only a matter of time before the bears take back control.

Economic Calendar: ISM Index at 10:00

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/01/2007 10:32:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Trader's Narrative - Trading Blog Contest
Trader’s Narrative, Babak’s stock trading blog which I read everyday, is having its first trading blog contest. He’s giving away six months of access to SentimenTrader.com: Analysis Over Emotion in the Stock and Bond Markets! To enter, all you have to do is to write about the contest on your blog. This is my entry. Here is how you can enter this trading blog contest.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/01/2007 09:39:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Stocks, Trading



Friday, March 30, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - NutriSystem Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:NTRI)
NTRI was a planned trade based on a base and break pattern on the daily chart above. It did not gap up on the open but I used the Fibonacci extension to determine the best entry and exit points. Long on a break of the OR high with a partial as price tagged the 50% extension. I was stopped out on the balance during the late morning market swoon. I re-entered when price recaptured the 5 period EMA with a target of 100%. We didn't quite make that second target so I tightened my stop to $53.00.


A similar base and break pattern is setting up on TSAI for Monday so add this to your watch list.


My other dummy trade was DNDN as it reversed on its pivot point after the midday swoon. I picked it up at $13.00 and sold as price approached the 38% retracement. Notice the volume spike as price dipped into the pivot point, signaling the end of the move.

A reader submitted this trade of CCJ which I like as well. Trader-X refers to this setup as a beyond the Fibonacci extension. Price consolidates in a bullish fashion just under the 38% extension and when the rising 5 period EMA comes into play, price extends beyond the 38% level to the 75% level. Plot the Fibonacci lines in the usual fashion and exit when the target is met, or price stalls. I notice you are using the 10 minute timeframe so in your case the OR high is the high of the first 10 minute candle. The extension lines don't line up as well on the 10 as the 15. For example you extend from the 50% level but your exit doesn't tag a specific line, it just falls between the 75% and 100% levels. I guess you could add another line between 75 and 100 to make it fit.




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/30/2007 10:01:00 PM 3 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Volume

hefeiddd

NASDAQ Technical Picture - Session Ends on a Bullish Note
Despite the unchanged level, the NASDAQ opened with a gap fade, followed by a chop to the lower pivot point, a reversal, and a strong volume rally in the second half of the afternoon. The late session rally felt very bullish and should see some follow through tomorrow morning notwithstanding negative economic data.

Economic Calendar: Personal income and spending at 8:30; Chicago PMI at 9:45; and Construction Spending and Michigan Sentiment at 10:00.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/30/2007 02:35:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: Gap_Fade, NASDAQ



Thursday, March 29, 2007Trade of the Day - Apple Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL)

Today was a gap fade day, but I didn't play that card because the Qs opened right in the middle of yesterday's range and I find that a little too tough to trade. I got a quick hit with a short on PAYX in the early going and then it was a long time before I was able to find a tradable setup.

The AAPL trade is pretty straight forward. The only thing I didn't know for sure as the pattern was developing was if it would break to the upside or the downside. I always set my orders two ticks above or below the base in order to avoid anticipation and false breaks. I've posted both the 15 and 5 minute timeframes so you can see the volume spikes that alert me of a change in direction.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/29/2007 05:04:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Bearish_Flag, Volume



Wednesday, March 28, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Pivot Point Support Holds on Closing Basis
The first chart is the daily timeframe for the QQQQs where we can clearly see how the pivot points came into play today. The blue line held on a closing basis and the next PP support level is the red line. If we can't hold the red line on a closing basis tomorrow, we will retrace back down to $43.00. Notice how selling volume picked up today. The lines are clearer on the QQQQ than the NASDAQ chart. Notice how the bearish gap resistance forms a much cleaner line here.


Economic Calendar: Initial Claims, Chain Deflator - Final and GDP-Final at 8:30; Help wanted index at 10:00.





[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/28/2007 07:04:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ, Pivot Point



Quick Hits - AKAM, BRCM, AAPL, and ARRS
AKAM and BRCM gapped down and tried to rally back up to their pivot points but could not close above the downsloping 5 period EMA so I shorted on a break of the consolidation lows. Both AKAM and BRCM had large volume spikes on the WRBs which signaled that the move was almost over.

ARRS was a midday retracement setup. It had all of the elements in play for success:
1. The ninth stick fell into pivot support dating back to March 22nd on a volume spike (capitulation) and closed just above the PP.
2. It observed support of the rising 20 period EMA.

I entered as price took out the high of the ninth bar and sold into strength at the 68% Fibonacci retracement.

AAPL was a little trickier today, so I waited for a low risk opportunity in the morning and a pivot break in the afternoon.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/28/2007 06:24:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Fibonacci, Gapper, Pivot Point



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hefeiddd

Tuesday, March 27, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bearish Hanging Man Pattern Confirmed

Yesterday, I noted that the candlestick was either a bullish hammer or a bearish hanging man. For a hammer we would have expected continuation as it closed on its highs. Today's gap down which failed to attempt a gap fill confirmed the negative posture and the hanging man. I was expecting this because as noted last night, yesterday's morning selling took place on higher volume than the afternoon rally.

The blue line segments represent pivot points which could provide support. So far, there is nothing to signal a steep pullback here, just enough to work off the overbought posture.

Economic calendar: Durable orders at 8:30; and Crude inventories at 10:30.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/27/2007 05:08:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Trade of the Day - Apple Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL)

AAPL had another nice rally this morning and tagged a pivot point from the daily timeframe (Jan. 11th doji high) before carving out two bearish reversal patterns on the 5 minute timeframe. After taking out the pivot point it printed a doji evening star and shortly thereafter a hanging man. I shorted the break of the base formed by these two patterns and AAPL delivered very nicely.


I took a partial when price tagged $96.00. AAPL appeared to capitulate on the WRB as it printed a huge volume spike and I covered the balance of my position and prepared to long a reversal. However, it printed a series of inverted hammers which failed to confirm and just kept going lower. Finally, it reversed and I was able to enter a long position. I should have exited as price approached $96.00 which was my initial partial on the short, but for some reason I was optimistic. About a half hour later, AAPL carved out another hanging man at the base of resistance and it was time to say goodbye.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/27/2007 04:20:00 PM 7 comments
Labels: Capitulation, Evening Star, Hanging_Man



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bulls Triumph Early Weakness
Bulls triumph over early weakness despite heavier volume on the morning sell off. It looks like we've carved out a bullish hammer, but it could be a hanging man. We need to break out of this trading range one way or the other in order to bring some momentum back.

Economic Calendar: Consumer confidence at 10:00.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/27/2007 12:41:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Monday, March 26, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - U.S. Global Investors, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:GROW)
Base and break of the OR high on an uptick in volume. I took a partial at the 38% Fibonacci extension level and sold the balance as price approached the 50% level. There were so many gappers in pre-market this morning that I couldn't put together an intelligent list, so I decided to focus on names I knew well that were very active in pre-market ie. showed up multiple times on the Trade_Ideas pre-market scanner.

N.B. I think this is a typical Trader-X setup. I won't be surprised if he also took this trade.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/26/2007 04:03:00 PM 14 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper



Sunday, March 25, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Weekend Update
Although there has been a clear lack of momentum over the last two sessions, the low volume consolidation has taken place in the upper level of Wednesday's WRB and price has maintained a stance above the 50 MA on a closing basis. Thus, the short-term, bullish bias remains intact.

Economic calendar: New home sales at 10:00




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/25/2007 05:52:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Friday, March 23, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - Amgen, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMGN)
In retrospect, the AMGN trade does not look like a good setup because the down sloping EMA is too far away and the risk reward ratio is not great. I think I traded more on news rather than pure chart analysis on this one. I noted pivot point support dating back to April 2005 that lined up closely with the 25% Fibonacci extension and covered my entire position just pennies above that level.


DIVX showed up on my gapper scan and set up a nice tweezer bottom reversal pattern after retracing 62% of the morning move. I was anxious to finish this trade because. as you can see from the chart, it was very choppy.

NBIX I found through my Trade_Ideas unusual volume scan. After the big morning move, it consolidated in two waves (2nd wave made a higher low confirming the bullish consolidation could break higher) and set up a low risk entry for the next leg up. Sweet!



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/23/2007 04:15:00 PM 15 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper

hefeiddd

Thursday, March 22, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - First Solar, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:FSLR)
FSLR gapped up on the open and printed three consecutively wider WRBs on increasing volume - Cramer effect. After taking out the 50% Fibonacci extension, it reversed in an orderly fashion and came all the back to the OR. On a hammer reversal bar, it managed to close above the OR high, setting up a reversal and long entry after confirmation. The afternoon move, extended beyond the 62% level before carving out a hanging man, signaling the end of the move.


MOT gapped lower on the open. After consolidating the wide gap down for an hour, it made a move lower. I entered just before it took out the OR low, because I felt it might be too hard to get in after the break. The target was the 25% Fibonacci extension because it lined up fairly well with support on the daily timeframe.

NUAN is an example of a failed WOR base and break pattern. I took this trade knowing that yesterday's extended move was a caveat. However, the volume was very bullish, so I weighed the odds and took my chances. The breakout bar was WR as expected. The next bar was narrow, again as expected. However, I was looking at the 5 minute timeframe and suddenly felt that price was going to come back in, so I tightened my stop just below the NRB and I was stopped out. Normally this setup moves very quickly. When I felt price stall, I did not give the stock a second chance. This is trade mangement - don't let a pattern failure turn into a loser.





[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/22/2007 06:38:00 PM 12 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gapper



Wednesday, March 21, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - FOMC Sparks a Rally
Up until 2:15 EST we had a real doldrum session, but optimism over the FOMC Statement sparked a late day vertical rally. Participants took the Fed comments to mean the tightening bias was dropped (What about the possible sub prime fallout???). The NASDAQ rallied up to its 62% Fibonacci retracement level and closed near its highs. What a difference a day makes. Yesterday, the P&F chart indicated a triple top breakout (double bottom breakout in layman terms) with a new target of 2680. Today's session added 48 points and put us in the overbought zone. I expect we will consolidate this move in the coming days before attempting to break through the bearish gap resistance from last month's breakdown.

Economic Calendar: Initial Claims 8:30; and Leading Indicators at 10:00 EST.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/21/2007 08:59:00 PM 3 comments
Labels: Fibonacci, NASDAQ



No Dummy Charts Tonight
No dummy charts tonight. My best trade came after the FOMC minutes were released. I was eyeing EXP should the minutes be favorable to Home Builders. EXP has taken quite a hit in the past month or so. It opened strong this morning, but swooned back down to session lows prior to the FOMC. As soon as the minutes were released it popped and I jumped in for a quick gain of $0.80.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/21/2007 04:02:00 PM 0 comments




Tuesday, March 20, 2007Newbie Trades Analyzed - (NASDAQ: GILD), (NASDAQ: HERO)
A reader asks me to analyse two newbie gap up trades. Here are my thoughts.

GILD gapped up yesterday and had a nice move, closing in the upper half of its range. Today it gapped up again, this time with a wide gap and a strong OR bar, extending yesterdays's move by almost 200%. This was followed by an orderly pullback to the rising 5 period EMA and finally, a three WRB rally which broke through the OR high before reversing. Having described it in this way, I'm sure you've already figured out what went wrong here. GILD was exhausted after this huge, two day move.

If we disregard the fact that GILD was overextended and just look at it as a day one gap up, I've highlighted my preferred strategy in blue on the above chart. For me its more important to enter in very close proximity of the rising 5 period EMA on a low risk, NR, setup and manage the break of the OR high, as need be, when the time comes.

If GILD had consolidated the opening gap through time as opposed to price, your entry would have been perfect. But if a stock gives you a chance to buy it on an orderly pullback, I recommend that you take the opportunity, everything else being equal. Of course, it goes without saying, that I'm not recommending that anyone try to catch a falling knife. Let the stock pullback, define its price support, form a base, and then you can buy a break above the base and the rising 5 period EMA. The other point I'm trying to make here is not to buy after the stock has printed two WRBs. Try to time the entry off of NRBs. There are only a few (avg. 3-4) WRBs in any given move.

HERO was part II of a gap fill play. If you read my chart notes, it will be painfully obvious why this one failed. However, on a regular gap up with no obstacles, you could have expected a 38% extension on this setup. You have a good eye for a base and break entry here, just bad luck on the retracement.

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Posted by Jamie at 3/20/2007 08:07:00 PM 18 comments
Labels: Base_Breakout, Fibonacci, Gap_Fade, Gap_Fill, Gapper



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hefeiddd

Tuesday, March 20, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ACAD) Encore
I got a late start to my trading day due to personal business. ACAD was still front and centre on my screen from yesterday and the early NR pullback to support looked like a good trading opportunity. ACAD observed support from yesterday afternoon. As it tried to regain the 5 period EMA, it carved out a NR7 inside bar. My dummy entry was two ticks above the previous bar high and my stop just pennies below. It was slow at first, but the next bar ramped up the volume and ACAD quickly moved towards yesterday's high at which point I took a partial profit. It then consolidated in the upper range of the WRB before breaking out to higher highs. After two more WRBs, I exited the balance of my position. The convergence of the 5 and 20 MAs marked the beginning of the setup.



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Posted by Jamie at 3/20/2007 07:00:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Dummy, NR7



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Low Volume Rally
Economic Calendar for Tuesday - Housing Starts and Building Permits 8:30 EST.



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Posted by Jamie at 3/20/2007 12:47:00 AM 7 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Monday, March 19, 2007Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co. (Public, NASDAQ:LEND) Update
No trade was triggered based on yesterday's analysis. NASDAQ notified LEND early this morning that it will be delisted as per the following excerpt from Briefing.com

Accredited Home Lenders receives notice of delisting; in discussions regarding a possible financing arrangement with a third party (10.90 ) : Co announces that it has received notice from the Nasdaq staff that the co's common stock is subject to delisting from The Nasdaq Stock Market. The appeal will stay the delisting of the co's stock from The Nasdaq Stock Market pending the Panel's decision. In the meantime, the Company is working to file its Form 10-K as soon as possible. In addition, the co announced that a class action lawsuit was filed against it and certain of its officers and directors. The lawsuit generally alleges that, between November 1, 2005 and March 12, 2007, LEND issued materially false and misleading statements regarding the co's business and financial results causing the co's stock to trade at artificially inflated prices. The company believes that the lawsuit has no merit and intends to defend the case vigorously. As announced previously, the co continues to explore various strategic options, including raising additional capital to enhance liquidity and provide the co with the flexibility to retain or sell originated loans based on an assessment of the best overall return. Accredited is currently in discussions regarding a possible financing arrangement with a third party that would provide additional liquidity. The co has retained a financial advisor in this endeavor.



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Posted by Jamie at 3/19/2007 10:53:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Gap_Fill



Dummy Trade of the Day - ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ACAD)
ACAD gapped wide this morning and quickly setup a WOR Base and Break pattern. The size of the gap and the volume led me to believe it would break fast so I starting scaling in dummy style on the 5 minute timeframe. I doubled my size on the actual break. Normally I expect a 38% Fibonacci extension of the OR high on this type of pattern, but ACAD starting forming a tweezer top at 25%, so I exited my position.

OONR7 pointed out that PCLM, URRE and BWLD also setup as WOR base and break patterns today.

THE also had a wide opening gap and spent a good portion of the session setting up a flat base breakout pattern. Although the base broke well below the OR high, it was able to break above the OR on a WRB, However, the next bar was NR7 and marked the end of the move, before it fell sharply in the last 45 minutes of the session.

Both ACAD and THE were listed on Briefing.com's pre-market gapper list. I found them through Trade_Ideas .



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Posted by Jamie at 3/19/2007 08:15:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper



Sunday, March 18, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Weekly Update



Mid-week the NASDAQ showed a nice recovery off of the dip into lower territory, however, the failure to follow through into the latter part of the week, leaves the market looking and feeling tired, as if it is barely hanging on. The pattern of lower highs and lower lows continues.

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Posted by Jamie at 3/18/2007 08:42:00 PM 6 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Q&A

Topics:

• Gap Fill or How we might trade (NASDAQ:LEND) on Monday
• Momo Stock Watchlist
• Timeframes and Moving Averages

Q. Further to my previous post, a reader asks me to explain "Gap Fill" in the context of (NASDAQ:LEND).

A. The first chart below explains the gap fill area of interest marked in red. A good portion of the gap from Thursday's closing price to Friday's opening price has been filled already. The key take away from the gap fill is that it lines up perfectly with pivot point support (blue arrows), and falls in between the the 38% and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last leg up (from Tuesday's low to Friday's OR high).

What does all of this mean? Well, on a normal retracement, we fall into pivot point support, which could initiate a reversal back up. The only caveat here is the convergence of all of the moving averages (MAs). This could slow down the reversal process as we don't want the MAs hovering above price on a long entry. Last Thursday we only had to contend with the 5 MA, but now we will have the 50 and 200 in play as well.

The second chart highlights the short-term target ($14.75) of a reversal back up. The three red arrows served as support on the way down and will be resistance on the way back up, . This is the maximum we can expect (notwithstanding a major news item) and there will be pockets of resistance such as Friday's high, in between.

A gap down below the pivot point zone $9.30-9.40 invalidates the setup. It's almost impossible to find shares to short at this point, so if support doesn't hold, just move on to something else. I'll also mention for newbie traders that you do not want to buy unless a clear reversal pattern presents itself.

Click on charts to enlarge

Q. Another reader asks me to list some of the key stocks by sector that I monitor in pre-market.
A. In general I prefer highly liquid stocks (volume > 1 million shares per day) with an average daily range > 1 as measured by the ATR (average true range) . The following is my current momo watchlist of stocks by sector. I don't often trade oil and gold, except when they show up on the gapper scans, so they might be conspicuous in their absence from the list but that is intentional.

Sector	Stocks
Semiconductors	LRCX, NVDA, SNDK, VSEA, FSLR, BRCM, KLAC
Networking	QCOM, JCOM, RVBD
Biotech	AMGN, CEPH, CELG, GILD, AFFX
Communications	RIMM, GRMN
Internet	AKAM, AMZN, BIDU, WEBX
Media & Advertising	FMCN, VCLK
Energy	ENER, STP
Industrial	JOYG
Metals & Materials	EXP, TIE, X, STLD
Airlines	CAL
Financial	GS, LEH, ICE, MA, NYX, NMX, LEND, FMT
Food & Beverage	HANS, WFMI
Retail	GES, URBN
Software	ADSK, CTXS, CKFR, CTSH, ERTS
Hardware	AAPL
Pharmaceuticals	AMLN

Q. A reader asks me to discuss my favorite timeframes and what moving averages I use.
A. For intraday trading I prefer the 15 minute timeframe because it is not too fast and not too slow and allows me to assess the setup in a meaningful way. For highly liquid and orderly stocks, I also like to use the 5 minute timeframe. For example, if the 15 minute view has triggered an entry, I will often use the 5 minute chart to time the entry.
For my nightly review of stocks, I mainly focus on the daily chart and sometimes the 60 minute timeframe.

I used to use the 10 period EMA as my main MA for support and resistance on the 5 and 15 minute timeframes, but after following Trader-X, I realized that his use of the 5 period EMA was much more precise for timing the entry on gap dummy setups. I still use the 10 period EMA for the daily timeframe. The other two most important MAs for me are the 50 and 200 because these are industry standards, ie. everybody is watching them. For the 50 and the 200, I use the SMA because they are farther away and I don't need the smoothing effect of the EMA.
I use the MAs for timing entries, support/resistance, as well as crossover and convergence, the latter two of which can alert me of an upcoming move.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/18/2007 09:00:00 AM 9 comments
Labels: ATR, EMA, Fibonacci, Gap_Fill, Pre-Market, Watchlist

hefeiddd

Friday, March 16, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - Zoltek Companies, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ZOLT)
ZOLT gapped up on heavy volume and quickly took out the OR high and just as quickly reversed, however it did hold the OR high as support throughout a lengthy consolidation. During the consolidation, it carved out a bearish engulfing bar but quickly regained its composure. I took a long entry on a break of the bearish engulfing bar's high as price had a lot of support from the 5 period EMA. We had a minor consolidation at the 38% Fibonacci extension, followed by a nice move above the 62% level. I thought we might get to 100% which lined up very nicely with daily resistance, however, a false break of the afternoon consolidation highs, resulted in a tighter stop and a stop out. ZOLT closed at 62% extension level.


After gapping up and fading, FMT retraced 38% of its last leg up (Tuesday's low to Friday's high) and starting to print some green. I took a small low risk position hoping for a rally into the close. A nice way to end the week.

Good news from our student reader from last night, Vivek has informed me that he sold his LEND shares in pre-market this morning for a handsome gain.
I tried to short LEND today and there were no shares available. I've posted the chart to show that the 39% Fibonacci retracement of the last leg up will coincide nicely with a gap fill, so if we get a clear reversal pattern in this area Monday, it could setup a nice trade.
Have a great weekend!



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/16/2007 04:22:00 PM 12 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper



Thursday, March 15, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co. (Public, NASDAQ:LEND)
As discussed last night, LEND was front and center for me this morning following yesterday's late day surge on high volume. It was very active in the pre-market and gapped up on the open.

The first bar closed weak as expected because a lot of traders who picked up the stock late in the session yesterday, sold the open. The second bar was bullish and the third bar was a neutral inside bar. The fact that the third stick closed in the upper third of the previous bullish bar and printed much less volume, was a plus. An entry above the base formed by the second and third bar highs was contemplated, however, I decided to stick to the rules and wait for the OR high to be taken out. The fourth bar edged above the OR high and closed very strong. At this point, I thought the stock was going to run away from me, but luckily it retested the breakout point, allowing for a second chance to get long. I waited for the rising 5 period EMA to edge up even closer and entered at the beginning of the 6th bar.

Based on the heavy pre-market trade, my ultimate target was a gap fill, however, knowing that was extremely ambitious, my strategy was to stay in the trade until the target was met as long as price did not breach the 5 period EMA on a closing basis. Within that strategy I leave myself open to exit, if things get disorderly or suspect. After tagging the 38% Fibonacci extension, things got a little suspect as a series of "out of the money" transactions started printing on the time and sales screen. This action lasted 10 minutes and was extremely disruptive to the chart pattern especially on the lower timeframes. However, it did not affect the level II screens so I hung in. If we remove the long tail on the 8th bar which was caused by the out of the money trades going through, we have a very orderly chart. Volume was momo and much stronger on the green sticks than the red ones. The gap fill and tag of the 100% Fibonacci extension occurred on extremely high volume, almost a euphoric volume spike, marking the end of the move. There were a lot of shorts being covered in this move today because of yesterday's strong close and the absence of more bad news on the sub-prime lending group.


A student reader bought LEND in the upper range on today's action and asks what to do now that the stock closed lower than the purchase price. I can't give investment advice, however, I can read the chart for you. Based on today's close, we have an unconfirmed bullish island reversal. In order for this bullish reversal to confirm, we need to keep today's opening gap, at least partially unfilled.
LEND has been on a path of lower highs and lower lows for quite some time. We need a trend change which means higher lows and eventually higher highs. I know that the stock is trading lower in after hours, however, today's bullish volume spike could signal a reversal is at hand. One thing is for sure, expect more volatility.
Here is an interesting comment courtesy of Briefing.com:
Floor Talk: More on short-covering in the subprimes : As we've mentioned a number of times in the past couple of days, the short-covering in the subprime lenders continues at an aggressive pace. The notable movers today include NEWC.PK, LEND, NFI, FMT, DFC, CCRT, FED, CFC, IMH, and NDE, although basically the whole group is moving higher. Essentially, when everyone is leaning on the same names -- and they stop going down -- everyone starts to cover at the same time, which in this case has led to a truly impressive short squeeze... In addition, a couple of other factors have given further incentive for shorts to cover: 1) the morning bombshell headlines from the group have (at least temporarily) stopped appearing each morning, so the morning headline risk has subsided somewhat; and 2) there has been chatter that some of the big brokers (BSC, GS, etc) could start shopping for assets among the subprime wreckage; the WSJ ran a story on GS to that effect on Wed, and BSC and LEH suggested during their conference calls that they might start looking for opportunities in the subprime area... One final observation is that the markets have been hammering the subprimes for weeks now (i.e. pricing in the bad news), yet the US Congress seems to have just noticed it this week when various members threatened to hold hearings/sponsor legislation on subprime lending practices. In other words, the sound and fury that is starting to emanate from Congress is occurring after some major damage has already been done (in the past, Congress has at times served as a contrarian indicator in situations like this... for example, think of the oil profiteering hearings that occurred right around the time that crude oil peaked)... In short, it's impossible to tell how far the short-covering of the past two days will take the subprime stocks, but the one thing traders can count on in the coming days & weeks is extreme volatility.


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Posted by Jamie at 3/15/2007 07:40:00 PM 5 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gap_Fill, Gapper



Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co. (Public, NASDAQ:LEND) Gap Filled
Yesterday I mentioned keeping LEND on the radar for today and it delivered a nice gap fill. Sweet. I'll explain my trade in more detail this evening.



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Posted by Jamie at 3/15/2007 01:03:00 PM 6 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gapper



Wednesday, March 14, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bulls Defend 38% Retracement of the July - February Rally

The first chart shows that we tagged the 38% retracement level of the July - February rally and reversed from there. So basically the bulls came in on higher volume to defend their turf at a key technical level. A quick review of the Qs intraday, showed that volume was much higher on the buy side than the sell side. We also note some positive divergence of the RSI on lower prices, however, the ADX clearly favors the bears.

Economic calendar: Tomorrow's calendar is loaded starting with PPI, Initial Claims and NY Empire State Index at 8:30; Net Foreign Purchases at 9:00 and Philadelphia Fed at noon.

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Posted by Jamie at 3/14/2007 10:32:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Fibonacci, NASDAQ



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hefeiddd

Wednesday, March 14, 2007Under the Weather
I'm under the weather and didn't put much effort into trading today. However, I did manage to catch a piece of (NASDAQ: LEND) after it started flashing unusual volume this afternoon. I missed the break of the OR high, so I waited for it to consolidate. The lower blue line is today's OR high and the upper blue line marks yesterday's OR high, The small blue and red line segments mark my entry and initial stop. The trade lasted less than 10 minutes as this is a 5 minute chart, but I managed a nice reward with very little effort. Keep this name on the radar for tomorrow.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/14/2007 04:16:00 PM 4 comments




Tuesday, March 13, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - The Bear is Back
The NASDAQ gapped down on the open and made a feeble attempt to fill the gap. Around noon, it took out the OR (opening range) low and the rest is reflected in the long red candlestick. All tech sectors participated in the meltdown. It's obvious from today's volume spike that we are going lower. The next level of support is last week's low at 2340, followed by 2325 and then we are looking at the 200 day MA which is edging its way towards 2300.

Economic Calendar for tomorrow: Current Account; Import/Export Prices at 8:30; followed by Crude inventories at 10:30 EST.

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Posted by Jamie at 3/13/2007 07:25:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Dummy Trade of the Day - QUALCOMM, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:QCOM) Long / Continental Airlines, Inc. (Public, NYSE:CAL) Short
QCOM gapped up on the open and carved out a WRB with a long upper shadow. After an orderly pullback to the rising 5 period EMA, the fourth stick printed a NRB with a lower high. I went long as price took out the high of the NRB. I took a partial when price retested the OR high and I was stopped out about an hour later just 5 cents below the OR high.

CAL was a short entry on a break of the OR low. I covered too soon because the afternoon session was somewhat choppy. At the time, I thought we were going to rally on a bullish candlestick reversal pattern. False alarm.



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Posted by Jamie at 3/13/2007 04:08:00 PM 6 comments
Labels: Dummy, Gapper, NRB



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Limited Gains Amid Lower Volume

Not much to say about yesterday's rally except that it was a tepid attempt on lower volume. I did notice that some of the weaker names in the semiconductor sector were pacing the way higher as the real sector leadership consolidated the recent bounce.

Economic Calendar: Retail Sales 8:30 and Business Inventories at 10:00 EST.



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Posted by Jamie at 3/13/2007 07:50:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Monday, March 12, 2007Dummy Trade of the Day - Cree, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CREE)
My platform is organized with one page per major tech sector and each morning I check which sectors are moving in pre-market. Today I noticed that some semi stocks were gapping up, most notably, CREE, on news that it was acquiring COTCO. CREE gapped up on high volume and carved out a WOR with a fairly long upper shadow. The next stick was an upper inside bar on much lower volume, followed by a red NRB side by side. I noticed an uptick in volume as the fourth stick took out the OR high and decided to get long. Support from the rising 5 period EMA was in play already because the gap was not that high. After the usual retest of the breakout point, CREE slowly made its way to the 38% Fibonacci extension. Momentum finally kicked in and CREE made its way up to the 100% extension at which point, I took a partial. It eventually tagged the 150% extension and I decided to let it go. $ 0.85 on an inexpensive stock like CREE is a nice run.

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Posted by Jamie at 3/12/2007 06:44:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper



Blast from the Past
A few of the old semi stocks I used to follow made some nice moves today. I noticed CREE was trading up in pre-market. Charts later this evening.



Wall Street asked about AKAM. Here's my take.

Click on chart to enlarge.

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Posted by Jamie at 3/12/2007 05:18:00 PM 4 comments




Sunday, March 11, 2007Trading Opening Gaps - Dummy Setup - Wide Opening Range (WOR), Base and Break Pattern
In lieu of Trading Gaps Dummy Style Part II, I've decided to document different gap setups with entry and exit rules for each. This will enable me to build a library of easily identifiable gap trade setups and perhaps develop success rates based on my own experience.

The first setup in this series is what I am calling the Wide Opening Range (WOR) Base and Break Pattern. I traded two of these on Friday - (NASDAQ:YHOO) and (NYSE: STP) and also found (NYSE:FOE) which I did not trade, on Friday's gapper scan.

As you will note from the following three 15 minute charts, the characteristics of this pattern are as follows:

Opening Range (OR) - wide with little or no shadows - in general, the shadows make up less than 25% of the OR;

Base - consolidation of the gap takes place in the upper/lower third of the OR. The base is usually, but not always aligned with the OR high/low.

Volume - is above average relative to the recent range;

5 Period EMA - Price observes the 5 period EMA (gold MA) as support/resistance.

Wide Range Bars (WRB) - this setup usually has three WRBs including the OR (labelled 1,2, 3). The second WRB is usually the entry bar and the third bar usually marks the end of the move.

Fibonacci Extension - all of the examples below, were successful in tagging the 38% extension.





CAL and JOYG are examples of the WOR Base and Break setup from the past.
Entry rules: Allow the gap to consolidate so avoid trying to enter too early. YHOO was the quickest to break on Friday and I also noticed that it had a much wider gap comparatively speaking. Don't enter until the OR high/low is breached. Ideally you want to enter when the 5 period EMA is close enough to provide reasonable support/resistance in case of a false break. If the base is not perfectly aligned with the OR high/low, draw a resistance line to determine the entry point. In my own trading, I like to buy 2 cents above the base because I want to make sure that price is actually being bid up and not just someone hitting the ask. This strategy works reasonably well when there no spread between the bid and the ask. I use the same two cent margin in setting my stops.
Exit Rules: I used to take a partial after the third WRB, and noticed over time, that staying in the trade rarely generated additional profit and often resulted in a stop out on the second half, so going forward, I will exit 100% as the third WRB completes itself or on a tag of the 38% retracement.



As always, my inspiration for trading gaps dummy style comes from reading Trader-X, Trader Mike, and MaoXian. Don't forget to check the archives and the comments.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/11/2007 10:16:00 PM 17 comments
Labels: Base_Breakout, Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper, Opening Range, Volume



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Weekend Update

Most of the major indices have retraced 38% of the meltdown including the QQQQ. The one exception is the NASDAQ which gapped up on the open Friday and was immediately faded. The afternoon session was a chop fest, leaving most traders running for the exits. At this point it looks like we are going to pullback, and the best we can hope for, is a lower high sometime later in the week, from which we can attempt to retrace a little bit more.

Economic Calendar for Monday: Treasury Budget 2:00 EST.



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Posted by Jamie at 3/11/2007 08:40:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Friday, March 09, 2007Tales from the Trenches
Downtowntrader has written an excellent technical post for Investopedia. Although it is written from a swing perspective, the technical aspects apply to day trading as well.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/09/2007 01:02:00 AM 2 comments
Labels: Blogs



Thursday, March 08, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - No Follow Through

Although we added 13 points on the session, the NASDAQ actually closed lower than it opened and spent much of the second half of the afternoon in sell mode. A very bullish open with failure to follow through ahead of tomorrow's jobs data. Resistance will be difficult to regain with many of the leading stocks on the cusp of breaking down. However, we have yet to retrace 38% of the first leg down, so the data tomorrow may cast the market's fate. Remember that before, bad news was good news as far as inflation and interest rates were concerned, but going forward, we need "good news is good news" in order to justify lofty stock market prices. I don't want to over analyse, I'll just say that I have a strategy for long and short. I hope that the lines are clear, not like today, long and short.

Economic Calendar: Non-farm payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Hourly earnings, Avg. workweek, and Trade Bal. at 8:30; and Wholesale inventories at 10:00.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/08/2007 09:28:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



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