一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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Tuesday, July 01, 2008Target Trade (Base & Break) - Fording Canadian Coal Trust (USA) (Public, NYSE:FDG)
The objective of this blog is to identify day trading strategies that deliver based on sound risk:reward principles. It's not a day trading journal. I do take my share of boredom trades like everybody else. But, I see no point in publishing the latter because it doesn't fit with the objective of the blog. Moreover, I generally post three times daily which is a huge commitment and I don't want to waste time on items that may have little interest to most readers.

Thanks to all those who submitted feedback over the last few days either through posting (Thanks Jim!), comments, and/or emails. I've got a backlog of emails so it will take a few days to answer everyone. I plan to get back to regular postings after the long weekend.

Tonight, I'm focusing on a single trade. The midday reversal on GM's sales news probably caught many of you covering shorts as this trade did for me.

The first chart is the daily chart and it highlights a target trade - trading to the pivot point as opposed to trading from the PP. Basically, I was looking for a break of yesterday's low to take me back to the PP base which lined up nicely with the rising daily 20 EMA. Target Trading is something I learned from HCPG.

The 15 minute time frame looked somewhat like a H&S top. On a measured move basis, the 100% Fib. extension from the top of the head to base lined up perfectly with the daily PP target.

The 15 minute chart shows how price broke out of the base and carved out a WRB which closed on its lows. When the BO bar prints wide and closes weak, we know we have an excellent chance of success. There's one caveat though, and that is the lack of a dicernable volume increase on the BO bar. The volume is easier to see on the 1 minute timeframe below. I took a partial at the next support level because normally, this is where price starts to consolidate the last leg down. There wasn't much of a consolidation, before price continued lower. I was almost certain of reaching my target when the second WRB closed on its lows, but I was expecting a consolidation because now price was so far away from the down sloping 5 period ema. Price and the 5 period EMA are like magnets, eventually they always come together.

As you can see from the chart, they decided to get back together sooner than I would have liked. Consolidations can take place through price or through time, or a combination of both. Usually it's a combo and price and the ema share the workload, but in this case price did all the work and the 5 period ema just sat back and waited.

Rule of thumb if there's no reversal stick to foreshadow a retracement or reversal and nothing else to key off of, don't give back more than 38%. 38% is a normal retracement, anything more than that could turn into a reversal.


There was no NRIB, NRB or NR7 on the 15 minute timeframe to setup the trade properly, but this does not deter me from taking the trade if I see an orderly three PP base on the lower timeframe.

Click on the chart to read my notes. I like to see price consolidate in a narrow range before breaking out. If this doesn't look like it's going to happen, I wait for the BO and the retest before committing money to the trade. This avoids getting caught in a head fake which can be quite costly if you are using Point A as your stop.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/01/2008 09:52:00 PM 13 comments
Labels: Base and Break, Fibonacci, Fibonacci_retracement, Pivot Point, target_trade



Happy Canada Day
Happy Canada Day to all my Canadian readers!

Thanks to all who posted comments last night and this morning. It was especially nice to hear from Trader-X a little over one year since his last official post on the Trader-X blog. Good to hear from you and hope all is well. I know I speak for all my readers when I say you are missed. Thanks to Larry for his blogger insights. It's great to get support from other bloggers.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/01/2008 03:54:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Trader-X



Monday, June 30, 2008For The Record - Trading Is In WSW's DNA
As some of you know, Jamie (WSW) has been getting verbally hounded by an Anonymous commenter over whether his trades are real or not. It has gotten so bad that Jamie has reconfigured his blog such that Anonymous comments are no longer accepted. I just want to make a few points and then I will let this go.

1) Over the last several years, I have seen negative (and almost always) Anonymous commenters nag many good/great trading blogs about the validity of their trades. In some cases, I believe the negative comments were a factor in the closing of some blogs. The crazy thing about it is that most of these losers claim to be traders or wanta be traders. Point #1: If you are a daytrader, why would you choose to nag WSW (or any good trading blog) when you could be using the blog to improve your trading knowledge/skills?

2) Let me be clear - I'm certain that Jamie makes every trade that he posts as such. One does not gain the depth and breadth of trading knowledge that he possesses without trading (a lot!). Futhermore, I could care less whether he (or anyone else) posts proof of trades or not. I will not look at them. An early stage trader may need them to prove to himself that SOMEONE (ANYONE) can make money. The latter stage trader knows that it is just he/she and the market. It does not matter what Trader X, Y or Z can do. Point #2: I use WSW's blog and other trading blogs to improve my knowledge and my skills so that I can make profitable trades. I could care less whether the bloggers take the trades or not.

3) I have traded on and off for many years, and currently trade part-time several days/wk. Since reading and studying Jamie's blog, I have improved my consistency significantly. Additionally, I have had enough interaction (via email and blog) with Jamie to know that he is a trader; trading is in his DNA. Speaking of DNA, it was a classic WSW B&B setup at the round number $75 for an afternoon trade. I have included a screen shot showing when DNA hit my scanner (1:00 scanner = 1:45 EST), the 15m chart (right), the daily chart (left), and the execution proof for the early stage traders. Point #3: Anonymous naggers are idiots!



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Posted by Jim at 6/30/2008 09:44:00 PM 15 comments
Labels: Base and Break, Blogs



Housekeeping
Only registered users can comment on WSW going forward. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Thursday, June 26, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bears Own It


Markets took a real drubbing today. There were so many catalysts including higher oil, GS sell ratings in C and GM, broker/dealers downgrading each other to a pulp, disappointing guidance from RIMM, ORCL, and NKE, and lackluster FOMC guidance yesterday. In line economic data didn't seem to matter. Except for Gold, everything was awash in red.

More of the same for tomorrow??? As Art Cashin stated this morning on CNBC, the FED may be cutting rates before they raise. The DOW took out support and the SPX is getting close. Will the plunge protection team jump in this time? They don't have much to work with and it likely won't prevent the inevitable for long.

I'm not here tomorrow morning.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/26/2008 10:44:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



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Thursday, June 26, 2008Dummy Gapper Cup & Handle - NIKE, Inc. (Public, NYSE:NKE)
NKE was an earnings gap which I highlighted in last night's post and pre-market. I see an inverted C&H pattern. The first three 15 min. bars constitute the cup and the rest is a wide handle. The head fake was the clue that NKE was ready to go. Took a partial when it started to retrace. After the first reversal bar came close to the stop, I decided to give it a little wiggle room and moved the stop back up above $59.00. I didn't want to get stopped out for 10-15 cents because I still believed it would complete the measured move which it did after tagging $59.00.

V was gapping lower in pre-market. Similar Gap & Go setup as my BA trade yesterday. Took a partial as price approached $79.00. Almost got stopped out on those weird price spikes midday. As soon as price recovered from that episode, I said goodbye.

My beloved SOHU carved out a bear flag and executed perfectly. Tried to stay in as long as possible as I thought this one might close on its lows. But when it looked like it might want to retrace back up to the declining 20 period EMA, I folded.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/26/2008 04:30:00 PM 28 comments
Labels: Bearish_Flag, Cup-and-Handle, GAPnGO, Gapper



Pre-Market
Gapping down: RIMM, NKE, CGV, OSK, V,

Gapping up: BBBY, MLHR, ROYL, WOR,USO moving towards resistance. Select gold stocks including ABX, AUY

Goldman downgrades C to sell and adds to conviction list. Also downgrades GM to sell.

ACI, BTU upgraded to buy at Caylon

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Posted by Jamie at 6/26/2008 08:50:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: Pre-Market



Wednesday, June 25, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Technical Bounce


Today's rally was a technical bounce from a deeply oversold level. The FED policy statement failed to inspire much of anything because it was too vague. After hours the Emini Nasdaq futures fell sharply in response to RIMM earnings/guidance. RIMM missed on the bottom line by 1 penny and issued mixed guidance - higher revenue and lower EPS due to investment in product development. I doubt this will precipitate analyst downgrades, but if that does happen, it will only add fuel to the fire.

I'm posting the RIMM AH chart. I'll be looking to see if it tests the blue lines in pre-market. Support for RIMM is in the $127.50 -$128.00 range. NKE also trading lower after hours, but it has broken it's trading range. ORCL also down on earnings.



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Posted by Jamie at 6/25/2008 09:45:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Trade of the Day - Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (ADR) (Public, NYSE:SID)
SID was a trading list short on last night's HCPG newsletter. The short didn't pan out but it set up a perfect inside bar at the base of resistance for a nice, low risk long. The inside bar in the shadow of the previous bar ie. no overlapping bodies is one of my favorites because it shows how orderly the setup is. The BA gapper set up in the same fashion (inside bars with no overlapping bodies). I took a partial as price approached R2 just prior to the FOMC policy statement and tightened the stop, but SID didn't care about FOMC. Sweet!

Took a low risk inside bar setup on AAPL 5 minute. It quickly took out resistance but couldn't BO of the next level base. After three attempts, I dumped it.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/25/2008 07:24:00 PM 7 comments
Labels: Base and Break, HCPG, NRIB



Gapper Dummy Trade - The Boeing Company (Public, NYSE:BA)
BA was downgraded to sell by GS this morning. A sell rating from the king of Wall St. Broker/dealers is deadly. Traded this on the 5 minute chart as it carved out two IBs at the base of the ORL. I tightened the stop when the second bar printed a green hammer. Price can quickly reverse from the early reaction low and I don't like the first trade of the day to be a loser. I tightened the stop again when price printed a lower low at the blue line segment. My target was the round number $70.00 and it lined up fairly well with the 38% Fib. extension of the previous day high to the ORL as depicted on the 15 min. time frame below.

How I DayTrade calls this setup Gap & Go.




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Posted by Jamie at 6/25/2008 04:40:00 PM 9 comments
Labels: 2_Inside, Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper



Pre-Market
Gapping Up: JBL, NOK, DF, WMB, NDAQ, BCS, MA (settles lawsuit with Amex)

Gapping down: PDO, ROK, MON (POT, AGU in sympathy), APOG, SONC, RTP, RIMM (risky business article in WSJ), BA downgrade to sell.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/25/2008 08:55:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: Pre-Market



Tuesday, June 24, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Another Lower Low



Another weak open (weak consumer confidence data and UPS) which precipitated lower lows all round. The recovery off of the lows was encouraging, leaving us a doji on the daily which could signal a pause or indecision at these extreme oversold levels. On the daily we tagged the 50% Fib. retracement of the March - May rally.

Tomorrow's FOMC policy statement at 2:15 might stir things up, but prior to that we have durable orders (8:30), new home sales (10:00) and crude inventories (10:30).

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Posted by Jamie at 6/24/2008 09:18:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Market Club - Free Trial Extended Until Midnight Tonight
Market Club is offering Wall St. Warrior readers a free two week trial to the complete package of all of their member services. No payment info is required for the trial.

I've been told that the offer which was to expire last night, has been extended until midnight tonight due to
a high volume of requests.
Here's the link : http://www.ino.com/info/74/CD925/&dp=0&l=0&campaign=7

Here's a link to my original post.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 6/24/2008 07:53:00 PM 0 comments




Gapper Dummy Trade - The Kroger Co. (Public, NYSE:KR)
KR gapped up and carved out a mini base on the 1 minute time frame. I micro managed this trade because gapper longs often don't have much muscle in this bearish market. Basically, I'm allowing for a retest, but once price moves in earnest, I'm looking to exit on the first sign of weakness. After the retest, KR broke out of the second base and had a nice run. As it formed the third base, it printed a higher high and immediately retraced. That third base is a three point base and if it fails price can reverse sharply so I tightened the stop and was stopped out.

The top is just pennies shy of the 38% Fibonacci extension of the previous day low to the ORH - Trader-X knowledge.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/24/2008 04:53:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Dummy, Fibonacci, Gapper, Trader-X



Inverted Cup & Handle - Suncor Energy Inc. (USA) (Public, NYSE:SU)
SU formed a bearish inverted C&H at the half dollar base. I used the entry bar as the stop because I wasn't interested in staying in the trade if it didn't take off immediately. The entry bar is hammer-like so if it gets taken out, there's a good chance of a reversal. I exited after three WRBs and held the balance to the target 100% Fib. extension of the ORH to the base.

POT formed symmetrical triangle after early weakness. I always assume that symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns. Price actually broke out to the upside but quickly reversed (head fake) and broke to the downside as planned. Because of the WRB, I used the inverted hammer on the 5 min. as my stop. Exit after 3 WRBs.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/24/2008 04:16:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Cup-and-Handle, Symmetrical_Triangle



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Monday, June 23, 2008Watch Lists - Milking a Good Daily
A common question on most trading blogs is “How did you find that stock?” or “How do you develop your watch list?”
I have invested a lot of time into developing real-time scans that highlight potential trading candidates during the day.
And, most days the scans turn up a FEW good trades, mixed with many weak-to-mediocre setups. <!--[endif]--> I do not want to go into the details of real-time scanning.
Instead, I want point out the effectiveness of maintaining a watch list of GOOD daily charts and milking those stocks as solid setups appear.
In a recent post (June 17), I mentioned that when filtering through scanner hits, it helps to focus on the best daily charts.
I traded HK that day and noted that it had a great daily chart.
Did I forget about HK after that day?
No.
Instead I added HK to my watch list.
When going through my watch list this weekend, I noticed that HK had a nice IB setup on the daily.
This morning it gapped above my trendline connecting the previous 3 days highs, pulled back and consolidated briefly on a small time frame (1-3 mins), then trended higher throughout the morning.
Following the B&B action mid-day, it had a strong move into the close.
That makes two range expansion trend days in one week from a single stock.
So, when you see a good daily chart, add it to your watch list.
Chances are that you can milk that chart/stock for multiple range expansion days and/or multiple intraday trades. By the way, this is essentially what Jamie is doing with his core watch list (WL).
Although his WL selection criterion considers much more than just the daily chart/trend (sector analysis is an example), most of his WL stocks have demonstrated the ability to produce good intraday moves.
If they continue to provide good trades from time-to-time, they stay and get milked.
If not, they eventually get replaced.


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Posted by Jim at 6/23/2008 10:37:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Daily, Technical, Watchlist



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Retest of Support on Higher Oil


We gapped up slightly on the prospect of lower oil, but oil didn't stay down for long. The NASDAQ carved out a lower low by mid-morning and tried to correct. When it ran into the down sloping 50 SMA on the 15 min. time frame it stalled and swooned, closing on its lows. Transports took a hit on higher oil with leadership provided by airlines (CAL and UAUA tested recent range lows). Energy and commodities were the winners once again on the positive side.

Volume was tepid and will likely stay in contraction mode until the FOMC policy statement on Wednesday, notwithstanding any major catalyst. Keep an eye on USO as it could test its pivot high any time now.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/23/2008 09:18:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Higher Oil - Transports Get Drubbed - Continental Airlines, Inc. (Public, NYSE:CAL)
Higher oil hurt transports. CAL, from the WL set up a perfect dummy short on the 3 min. chart at the base of Friday's late day swing low. Notice how, after gapping up, it quickly reversed and made a vertical move towards support. This type of price action is common in weak markets and sectors.


HES is an oil related play. Long on break of three pivot point base. Partial at resistance and stopped out on weakness after two more waves. A three pivot point base should move relatively quickly and I don't like to stay in these setups if they can't hold the pivot as support on the retest. In other words, keep this type of entry on a short leash.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/23/2008 05:14:00 PM 8 comments
Labels: 3 PP Base, Base and Break, Pivot Point, Support_Resistance



Sunday, June 22, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - High Volume Sell-off into Support




Another nasty day on Wall St. as higher oil and continued credit fears sent the markets tumbling on higher volume fueled by quadruple witching options expiration. The NASDAQ led the way down shedding 2.3% into its recent support level at the 38% Fib. retracement level. The S&P dropped 1.9% carving out a lower low, in the 62% retracement area.

The CBOE put/call ratio spiked to 1.33, its highest level since the March market lows. Pervasive bearishness may foreshadow a market bounce, but we'll continue to focus on headlines to guide our trading.

Latest headlines -S&P may reduce debt ratings on U.S. automakers. Saudi production pledge and Nigerian ceasefire help lower oil prices. Citigroup may reduce investment bank workforce by 10%. Asian markets decline for third day in a row.
FOMC policy on Wednesday.


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Posted by Jamie at 6/22/2008 08:11:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Market CLub - 2 Week Free Trial
Market Club is offering Wall St. Warrior readers a free two week trial to the complete package of all of their member services. No payment info is required for the trial.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/22/2008 11:33:00 AM 0 comments




Friday, June 20, 2008Narrow Range Inside Bars - Sohu.com Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:SOHU)
I got a late start to my trading day due to personal business. SOHU had a very bearish morning and attempted to rally from the blue line but couldn't attract enough buyers as confirmed by the declining volume. After retesting the base, it carved out a NRIB setting up for the next leg down.

AKS made its way slowly to the next support level after printing a series of lower highs. It consolidated for close to an hour before breaking down. Not a perfect inside bar, but right on the half dollar mark. I had two targets - the next two support levels (blue lines). I took a partial at the first support level. After much chopping around, it felt like it would make a final swoon to the next level, but managed to bounce back quickly after taking out $68.00.

ENER is not a good setup. Price had moved too far, too quickly, and needed to consolidate longer before breaking out. I got caught up in the bearish Friday afternoon syndrome and did not analyze the setup properly before jumping in. The inside bar was below all of the MAs including the 50 SMA and I took the bait. However, after losing the 50 SMA, price often consolidates and and attempts to get it back as in the AKS chart above. This consolidation often takes time so it's best to wait till the dance is over before jumping.

I realized my error almost immediately as a nice profit quickly reversed into a loss. Luckily, my stop (pennies above the IB), did not get hit and eventually I was able to exit with a profit.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/20/2008 09:18:00 PM 7 comments
Labels: Base and Break, NRIB, Support_Resistance



Wednesday, June 18, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bearish Gap


FedEx's gloomy earnings and guidance and more financial sector woes, propelled prices lower. Following the early swing low, markets retraced and then retested the lows. Still the intraday price action was negative given the lower highs on each retrace. After hours, the E-mini NQ futures have just retested today's lows.

As mentioned previously, this market is largely headline driven, so it's important to get a good feel for the pre-market drivers in order to be able to seize the best trading opps when the regular session gets underway.

On an intraday basis, watch how price reacts to the unfilled gaps highlighted on the 15 min. time frame above.

Economic Calendar: Initial claims in pre-market, Leading ind. and Phil. Fed at 10:00 EST.

I'm off tomorrow, back here on Friday.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/18/2008 11:24:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Adjusting the Expectation in Choppy Markets
I missed the open and a good part of the morning. The markets were bottoming by the time I got to my desk, but it was difficult to assess how much we might retrace. No point looking for shorts after the sell-off, so I concentrated on B&B longs.

JRCC set up a dummy long B&B off of an IB. After the initial thrust out of the base, it printed an ominous looking red stick with long upper shadow, so I decided to take half off in case of a failure. The initial stop held and JRCC eventually rallied up to the 50% Fib extension of the ORL to the base. I exited on the first sign of weakness.

Strength in steel led me to SCHN and X. After gapping up, SCHN carved out a 3 pivot point base and a low risk entry. Again, I don't want to stay in these positions too long and give it all back, so I'm adjusting my expectations in the weaker market environment and the OPEX chop.

X set up an entry at the blue line which I had drawn in a few days back. After retesting the entry point, it moved with vertical speed, all the way back up to yesterday's high.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/18/2008 09:42:00 PM 3 comments
Labels: Base and Break, Fibonacci, Inside Bars, Pivot Point



CTRP - Follow Up
With the down open in the markets, CTRP (example daily chart from last night) was a quick hitter. The 5m and 30m charts show how the short side could have been traded with confidence in light of the daily chart. After the morning move down, 30m IBs nicely marked the key intraday turning points. I took the first entry, a partial at $1 as it stalled, and held the remainder for a swing trade. This is not a high volume stock, so care should be taken in position sizing.



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Posted by Jim at 6/18/2008 09:32:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Pivot Point, Short



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Tuesday, June 17, 2008Chop Fest - Focus on Dailies
Like Jamie said, many traders are getting "chopped up" in this market. We are experiencing choppier intraday moves, more offsetting bars, targets not being met, etc. The way to combat the chop is to focus on higher quality setups. An easy way for me to filter intraday trades and select higher quality setups is to place more focus on the daily charts. When a stock hits my scanner intraday, the first thing I look at is the daily chart. Based on the scanner settings, I already know that the stock has sufficient volume, sufficient price, and is trading outside of the previous day's range. Beyond these factors, it helps to find the "best" daily chart(s). The best/better daily charts will have a solid trend, little/no resistance, and will not be over-extended. I prefer to trade the first range expansion day gapping out of consolidation.

I traded two stocks long today. Both stocks were similar in price and hit on the same scanner configuration/settings. Thus, nothing scan-wise differentiated these two stocks. However, there was a difference on the daily charts. URS had a good daily chart - nice uptrend with a gap up following a retracement to the 20ema. Therefore, I traded URS based on intraday setups and made some profit. The alternating (green & red) candles (per a 30min chart) made it tough to hold URS all day. URS did not give a good range expansion day and it sold off at the end of the day.


HK also had a good daily chart. In fact, it was so good that I will call it great. HK had a stronger uptrend with its last consolidation well above the 20ema. It gapped out of consolidation to a new high, retraced to test support (previous resistance), and traded higher all day.

Jamie refers to "a stock that is trading in the daily spot". HK was trading in the daily spot today. Did HK experience some retracements intraday? Yes it did. However, knowing that it was trading in the daily spot made it much easier to hold for a significant profit. Also, HK closed much stronger (in a relative sense) than URS.


You can also look for setups on the dailies where a gap or strong move will easily place the stock in a good zone for trading. For example, the CTRP daily chart has a nice bear flag at the round number $50. I am watching this stock for a potential gap/move down out of consolidation.



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Posted by Jim at 6/17/2008 11:45:00 PM 10 comments
Labels: Daily, Technical



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Chop Fest


This week marks triple witching options expiration on Friday. Today's session was typically choppy and narrow range leading into options expiration. All the positives leading into the session including, lower oil, better than expected GS earnings, and CPI being reported as in line (excluding food and oil/gas). The latter is nonsense in my mind because food and gas weigh heavily on the everyman, middle class budget. But last week's PPI data was almost identical and it sparked a rally.

Crude inventories tomorrow at 10:30.

We could be in for more chop, so be selective in your day trading setups.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/17/2008 09:26:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Narrow Range Breakout
After gapping up, DRYS consolidated in a flag pattern and I entered long. A second flag formed shortly after offering another opportunity to get long. Thought it might go to $84.00, but when it carved out a lower high, I decided to book my profit.

The second flag area held as support twice intraday, but when price started trading in a narrow range just above it later in the session, I knew the next test would fail, so I took it short.

ATVI, from my WL set up a B&B just below R2. Since this stock is trading in the daily spot, I had a good feeling that it would extend at least 100% from the ORL to the base.

LEH carved out a NRIB at the support level (former resistance from Friday's trade). I partialled out as price tagged Friday's B&B level.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/17/2008 05:11:00 PM 19 comments
Labels: Base and Break

hefeiddd

Pre-Market
Gapping on Earnings - GS (sympathy LEH, MER, UBS, C); CSIQ, (sympathy solars SOL, JASO etc.)

Dry Shippers showing strength in pre-market - DRYS, GNK, EXM

AAPL pre-market strength - a major mobile service provider in China has signed with AAPL and will introduce the 3G iPhone to the Chinese mainland in August 2008.

Gapping down - INFN, CDNS, CCH

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Posted by Jamie at 6/17/2008 08:51:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: Pre-Market



Saturday, June 14, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Oversold Bounce




In line CPI (excluding oil/gas and food) and slight weakness in oil, helped propel the markets higher from deeply oversold levels. The technical bounce was the biggest one day move for the NASDAQ since May 1st. The lighter volume implies a lack of conviction on the part of institutional investors. Keep an eye on headlines, as well as, the next resistance level 2460-70.

Economic Calendar - PPI, housing starts, and capacity utilization on Tuesday.

I'm off on Monday. I'll be back on Tuesday.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/14/2008 12:39:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Friday, June 13, 2008Narrow Range Setups
Solars were hot this afternoon. I missed the big move in YGE, but I did manage two low risk setups in STP and ENER. These small narrow range consolidation bases precede big moves and are much easier to see on the lower timeframes.



LEH was a gapper which eventually set up as a flat base BO, but it failed to reach even the 38% Fib. extension of the ORL to the base (upper blue line) due to lack of volume (summer Friday afternoon). I took a partial after it stalled at $26.00 and closed EOD.



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Posted by Jamie at 6/13/2008 09:58:00 PM 10 comments
Labels: Fibonacci, Gapper



Pre-Market
Pre-Market Strength - LEH, UBS, PWRD

Pre-Market weakness - ARAY

AAPL weakness being attributed to concerns re: Steve Jobs' health according to CNBC commentator

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Posted by Jamie at 6/13/2008 09:24:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: Pre-Market



Thursday, June 12, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Resistance Holds



The NASDAQ gapped up but failed at resistance (former support is now resistance). The fact that we opened higher than we closed is a net negative in my mind. The McClellan oscillator indicates that we are in the oversold zone. Volatility, as noted the other day, has stabilized through a series of NRIBs.

Keep an eye on oil prices, headlines, and tomorrow's economic data releases: CPI in pre-market and, Michigan sentiment at 10:00.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 6/12/2008 11:26:00 PM 1 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Trading Inside Bars To Fend Off Volatility Monster
Nimble traders thrive in volatile markets, but some of us work better under more orderly conditions. After my first two longs basically went nowhere fast, I decided to stick to the basics of trading 15 minute inside bars, ideally NRIBs, in order to avoid getting chopped up today.

HANS was either going to form a bear flag or retrace after the sharp decline. It set up a nice base on the 3 minute chart so I took a chance. Break on IB, stop a few pennies below the IB. Once it took out R2 on a closing basis, the retracement was obvious. Partial after 3 WRBs. Stop on break of NRIB.

I took a second entry on the failed C&H pattern, but it didn't do much.

ENER was a B&B NRIB. It stalled at the 62% Fib. extension of the ORL to the base. I'm not surprised, and I guess I should lower my expectations on long setups since we are now in a downtrend.

LEH was a failed BO at $24.00, followed by a NRIB. I took a partial at the first support level. This allows me to leave a BE stop on the balance of the trade because most stocks attempt to bounce at support so they need a little wiggle room. Thought it might retest the the ORL after the second support level was taken out, but buyers jumped in at $21.50.

SOHU carved out a bearish rounded top, followed by a sharp move into support. It consolidated that move by printing 3 IBs, the last of which was NR7 (price & volume contraction ahead of expansion). I took a partial as price approached support and exited the balance on a capitulation volume spike.



SOL was a HCPG pick. I ignored it because I mistakenly thought SOL wasn't shortable through IB. Got mixed up it SOLF. Anyway, it was a beauty as you can see from the chart above. It set up perfectly at $19.00 after two NRIBs on the daily.

How to identify tradable
IBs.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 6/12/2008 09:12:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: Pre-Market



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Monday, June 09, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - 50 SMA holds as Support
The NASDAQ broke its trend line on a closing basis, but buyers stepped in at the 50 SMA which is in line with the recent trading range bottom. Until that bottom is taken out on a closing basis, the overall trend is intact.




The VXN's topping candle foreshadows some sort of reversal or more likely, stabilization, following the sell-off.

I'll be away for the next 2 days. See you back here on Thursday.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 6/09/2008 09:28:00 PM 8 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Dummy Base & Break - priceline.com Incorporated (Public, NASDAQ:PCLN)
PCLN from the WL pivoted three times into the round number $130.00. Following each of these pivots, it carved out lower highs. Base & break below $130.00. I used the 5 minute time frame below to set my initial stop because the 15 minute chart was too wide. I closed the position before the 3rd 15 min. WRB was complete at $125.00 (whole number) on a huge volume spike (capitulation after sharp decline) which foreshadowed the end of the move.

JASO was a HCPG pick at $20.00. I entered a little early to take advantage the B&B setup. Stop above green hammer reversal bar which closed above S2.


LEH carved out a series of lower highs and higher lows. I decided to enter before the trend line break on the strength of the last high's bearish candle. I used the hanging man on the 5 min. time frame as my initial stop. Partial at $128 and tighten stop above green hammer reversal bar.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 6/09/2008 08:30:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Base and Break, Capitulation, Pivot Point, Trendline



Pre-Market
Pre-market movers:

Trading above Friday's close: POT, MOS (added to GS conviction list), CIT, VRTX, MCD,

Trading below Friday's close: LEH, AAPL, UBS, TASR, ICON, ROYL, RMBS, AMLN, VMW

Headlines: Oil down slightly from Friday's close; LEH pre-announces quarterly loss and common stock offering; McDonald's shares up after saying sales in the U.S. and Europe improved in May.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 6/09/2008 09:03:00 AM 5 comments
Labels: Pre-Market



Sunday, June 08, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Testing Trendline as Markets Plummet



The combination of the biggest jump in the unemployment rate in twenty years and the biggest one day oil price surge, sent the major averages plummeting on Friday. The S&P took out another support level, closing on its lows on a surge in volume (distribution). Volatility increased on the NASDAQ as well, but volume was slightly lower than Thursday's retest of resistance. The NASDAQ is holding its trend line. Not surprisingly, Transports shed 4.4% on higher oil. All the major indices are down on the week. The markets are headline driven so its important to keep abreast of the latest stories, day to day and even hour to hour.

The Nikkei is down almost 300 pts. at the moment, and rumours hinting that Lehman will pre-announce their first quarterly loss since going public as well as capital raising issues. Keep an eye on AAPL tomorrow as Steve Jobs is scheduled to keynote at 1:00 EST at the developers' conference.

On the economic calendar we have pending home sales tomorrow at 10:00. Thursday, we have retail sales and CPI.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 6/08/2008 10:44:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Friday, June 06, 2008Dummy Shorts - Valero Energy Corporation (Public, NYSE:VLO)
Refiners have been hit hard this week. I love stocks that just keep on giving. I traded VLO three days this week and it delivered nicely on all three.

NRIB at the lower end of the preceding wide range, red bar at the cusp of S2. Exit after 3 WRBs.

Cont'd

Similar setup on ESRX, except this one needed more time to consolidate after the BO. It was worth the wait when price eventually reached my target.

On the daily chart we see how it attempted to BO yesterday, although it was quite a lame attempt. As soon as it took out yesterday's low, it was ripe for shorting on the failed daily triangle pattern. It took out the pivots at the center of the triangle and closed on the lower slope. Sweet!



DRYS setup a good looking bear flag pattern. I fell in love with the pattern and didn't pay attention to price. Had I noticed the proximity of the round number $90.00, I would have moved on to something else. But since I was already committed, by the time I noticed we were about to hit $90.00, I partialed out and was stopped on the balance. I had to try a second time when price was rejected at the down sloping 20 EMA. It started out well, but then we ran into a series of offsets. I finally decided to bail half way up the WR green bar.

JOYG looked bullish despite the market sell-off and I placed a buy stop order at $89.52 for the C&H BO. My order was never triggered and eventually JOYG retraced towards the lower end of the cup. It tried to move higher, but it immediately reversed (head fake). I took advantage of the late day weakness, to scalp it into the close.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 6/06/2008 11:36:00 PM 8 comments
Labels: Bearish_Flag, Cup-and-Handle, NRIB

hefeiddd

NASDAQ Technical Picture - Institutional Buying


A big day for the markets today as institutions started putting money to work on the long side after the better than expected initial jobless claims. After today's broad based rally, the NASDAQ is retesting pivot point resistance at 2550. The mini H&S topping pattern has been wiped out.

I see an inverted H&S bottom on the 15 min. which is good for another 20-25 pts. Jobs data before the bell will set the tone for tomorrow's trade.



AAPL basing at key pivot point ahead of annual WWDC on Monday.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 6/06/2008 12:53:00 AM 4 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Thursday, June 05, 2008Trading The Plan
My personal trading list (after nightly review of the daily WL charts) for today was as follows:

AMZN B&B $82.00, CTSH B&B $36.00, NKE B&B $69.00, JOYG Bull Flag $85.00, ESRX symmetrical triangle on the daily, ENER break of 3 NRIBs on daily. I also wanted to catch HANS which has been running without me lately, and NIHD, a HCPG pick from yesterday which I missed but could catch on a pullback/continuation play.

So what happens when everything breaks simultaneously on the open? I knew we would have a strong open following the less than estimated job claims because the futures started running up at a good clip on that economic release.

At the end of the day, the entire trading list posted gains topped by HANS 7+%, followed closely by ENER. The worst performer was ESRX just 1.3%. The average was approx. 3.5%.

Usually when I put a trading list together, I'm hopeful of 2-3 good candidates. Today I managed to catch a piece of 6/8 names. Which ones did I miss? The E's ESRX because I didn't like the choppy mess in early trade and ENER because it went vertical off the open :( Almost 4 pts. in less than 30 minutes). That's the power of NRIBs!

Got an early start by placing a buy stop order for CTSH at $36.02 as the market was about to open. Used the pre-market low around $35.85 as my stop.

AMZN - missed $82.00 but found a mini base at $83.00. First exit is a partial, followed by a stop out.

HANS - Thought this one was going to run away from me again, but I liked the base at R2 and it was obvious this was going to fill the gap on the daily. R2 held as support in the afternoon, so this was a double play. Makes up partially for missing the run up in the past days.

NKE - I wanted to get the BO of the base at the lower blue line, but was distracted and missed it. Took the break of the swing high instead.

JOYG - Wanted to enter on the three pivot B&B at $85.50, but missed it and waited for price to consolidate (bull flag). Stopped out on a bearish rounded top and re-entered later at the exact same price for another pt. JOYG trading in the daily spot - they usually run to the end of the session.

NIHD - At the time I set this up as a C&H B&B. Nice volume on the BO bar and then no follow through. Hate when that happens. Took a partial at the 62% Fib. extension of the low of the cup to base because there wasn't enough volume. Stopped out shortly after. Notice how it also came back to my initial entry point late in the session for a nice bounce.



Thanks to HCPG, I'm really liking the 3 minute time frame. I can see the bases forming much more clearly than the 5 min.

Institutional buying was in play today. This usually happens once or twice per month (near beg. and end) in bull markets. Prices spike off the open and just keep running. After the early run, pullbacks are generally shallow and many stocks close near the highs of the day.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 6/05/2008 09:39:00 PM 8 comments
Labels: Base and Break, Cup-and-Handle, Fibonacci, HCPG, Support_Resistance



Wednesday, June 04, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bullish Engulfing Bar

Early strength propelled the NASDAQ to retest, for the second time in two days, the bearish gap from Monday morning. The gap was breached, but not entirely filled, so we may test it again tomorrow. I suspect that a complete gap fill could be faded, but the divergence between the NASDAQ's strength and the S&P's weakness is a distraction.

At the end of the day, we have a bullish engulfing bar on slightly higher volume. We penetrated the 200 day SMA but couldn't close above it. Intraday the channel was breached and is now acting as support.

We could continue to chop around like this until we get a clear break of the daily trend line and H&S top. Friday's jobs data could provide the catalyst we need to make a decisive move, one way or the other. Tomorrow, we have initial claims before the bell.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 6/04/2008 10:28:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Base & Break - Valero Energy Corporation (Public, NYSE:VLO)
VLO which I traded yesterday, set up a B&B short just as crude inventories were released at 10:30. Looks like an H&S top. Partial as price approached S2 and out at $50.00. Round numbers attract buyers. Second trade set up when VLO regained S2 on closing basis, then immediately gave it back.

NB - The first trade is high risk because of increased volatility following the release of crude inventories. I only traded half my usual size on the first setup because of the increased risk.

FSLR was a HCPG pick at $251 -250. I hesitated at $251 and ended up getting in much lower following NR7. In hindsight, $251.00 was the best spot as it pivoted there again intraday.

OXY, another stock I shorted yesterday, based along the blue line all afternoon, carving out a series of lower highs. So I knew it was going to breakdown, eventually.

CLF was a C&H base and break, but I felt the market would roll over anytime, so when it retested the initial swing high, I partialed out and tightened my stop. We did roll over, and aggressive traders short failures. After failing, CLF retested the base from beneath and reversed. A nice short would have been a break of the blue trendline.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 6/04/2008 07:15:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Base and Break



Focus List Trade - Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. (Public, NYSE:EXM)
Yesterday's focus list included Dry Shippers based on price and volume contraction ahead of expansion. As you can see from the daily charts for EXM and DRYS below, we're still in contraction mode. But EXM looks like it's getting ready to BO and DRYS made a valiant effort to break its trend line. Keeping these on the focus list for tomorrow.

I took the early leader long this morning. EXM carved out a three pivot point base which is usually pretty solid for a B&B entry.





[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 6/04/2008 05:00:00 PM 0 comments




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Tuesday, June 03, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Midday Sell-Off


Shortly after lunch, the markets sold off on high volume, followed by a strong rebound in the last hour. Still, we carved out a lower high, lower low and lower close. Oil was particularly weak, with many names closing near session lows.

The strength of the rebound, and the positive divergence creeping into the 15 minute time frame, could move towards some stabilization after two consecutive sell-offs. I expect that we may trade within the channel on the 15 minute time frame above.

I'm watching DRYS and Dry Shippers TBSI, EXM as the sector consolidates in a narrow range and on low volume following the recent high volume reversal. Price/volume contraction foreshadows expansion, so keep these names on the focus list.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 6/03/2008 11:19:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Short Trades - LEH, OXY, VLO
As I mentioned last night, LEH closed weak yesterday and could offer a carryover trade. That's exactly what happened. The first 15 min. bar was a wide, red hanging man. Just pick a spot. Also a second trade presented itself when the markets sold off.

OXY and VLO executed at the same time. OXY had the better setup because the 50 SMA was taken out on the BO. VLO paused when it hit the 50, losing some momentum. VLO observed support, OXY didn't -very weak - closed on its lows on a capitulation-like volume spike.


I missed the HCPG pick POT. Couldn't really find a spot at $210.00 and then missed the setup at $211.00. Some of my longs were lazy and sluggish - CTSH, and HUM. Although the market took out the declining 50 SMA early in the day, it had no follow through. It couldn't notch a higher high, and eventually came back to the 50. At that point it was time to look for low risk shorts as the market consolidated before breaking down.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 6/03/2008 08:13:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: 2_Inside, Capitulation, Hanging_Man



Focus List Trade - Garmin Ltd. (Public, NASDAQ:GRMN)
Last night I posted the daily chart of GRMN, highlighting the bullish rounded H&S, or C&H pattern. I also noted that there are no shares available for shorting with IB and we could get a short squeeze. Well, the shorts weren't bothered by today's gap up and I certainly didn't feel any squeeze action, but it was a winning trade just the same.

As highlighted on the daily, I set my prelim. target today at $55.00 based on the pivot points.

This is the 5 minute time frame with my entry on a bullish flag (pennant) BO.

Once the trade is safely underway, I manage it from the 15 min. time frame, otherwise it's too easy to start taking money off way too early. I would have liked more volume on the BO bar. I started to worry after the second BO bar closed as a shooting star and immediately moved my stop pennies below it. If it turns into a failure, it can reverse sharply, so precautions are necessary.

The problem was that GRMN didn't consolidate long enough before breaking out of the bull flag. Yesterday's late session rally plus the gap and the wide opening range, combined, to make a huge move. If stocks don't consolidate enough before breaking out, they pause after the BO and consolidate some more. After a few low volume inside bars, price finally took off as expected and almost reached the prelim. target. I wanted to take a partial as price approached the target, but it stalled and I ended up getting out on weakness.

I placed my Fib. extension lines from the previous day low to the ORH, Trader-X style, and we almost reached the 50% level (matches prelim. target from daily).

Back with more trades later this evening.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 6/03/2008 05:14:00 PM 6 comments
Labels: Cup-and-Handle, Fibonacci, Gapper, Squeeze



Monday, June 02, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bearish Gap Sell-off to Start the Month



Although volume was lighter, there was no lack of catalysts this Monday morning to get the month started on a bearish note. Europeon bank weakness spilled over the pond with a string of broker/dealer downgrades and target revisions, followed by S&Ps reduced credit ratings for Lehman, Merrill, and Morgan Stanley.

Looks like our mini H&S top on the NASDAQ is finally taking shape. Tomorrow I'll be watching the 50 SMA on the intraday chart to hold as resistance.

I noticed that there are no shares available for shorting GRMN on IB. I also see that it has carved out a bullish three point base (looks somewhat like an inverted H&S bottom). Could be a short squeeze here, so keep it on the focus list.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 6/02/2008 09:00:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: NASDAQ

hefeiddd

HCPG Trading List - Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (Public NYSE:LEH), Foster Wheeler Ltd. (Public NASDAQ FWLT)
The 15 minute time frame for FWLT looked a little stretched, but when I looked at the 5 and 3, there was a solid base, so I took a low risk entry on the 3 min. following a NRIB. The market was weak this morning so I locked it in when it couldn't hold $78.50.

LEH was another HCPG pick. It set up a near perfect B&B at $35.50. Lower priced stocks often base at the half dollar mark as well as the whole dollar. So I was happy to get a head start on this one. The downgrade by Merrill this morning provided the initial weakness. The S&P ratings cut midday for top brokers, tipped it over the edge and sent it in a free fall.

LEH looks very weak and could set up a follow on trade tomorrow.


SU, just a usual suspect in the Oil/Energy complex, set up C&H base. It rallied up to resistance where I took a partial. After that, things felt quite choppy so I exited just below the 75% Fib. extension level.

Watch for B&B setups at key support/resistance levels. Notice how SU sets up a second base at the same level as the earlier C&H base, late in the session.

IMCL was a gap down play which took a long time to develop, after which it started to give me trouble. Following the BO bar, it carved out a hammer so I took half off. It rallied back to the base and reversed back down. And just when I thought it would go in earnest, it didn't. Waste of time.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 6/02/2008 07:30:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Base and Break, Cup-and-Handle, Fibonacci, HCPG



Housekeeping
Briefing.com is reading my blog. They have requested that I refrain from using Briefing.com content. Most of the pre-market post was Briefing content. So the old pre-market post is dead. For the time being, I am not committing to regular pre-market posts.

Blogger was acting up this morning. Very inconvenient when you can't access your own blog.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 6/02/2008 04:03:00 PM 8 comments
Labels: Housekeeping



Sunday, June 01, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - 75% Retracement of Prior Week's Losses

The NASDAQ has retraced 75% of the prior week's losses. Friday's gains recaptured the 200 SMA on a closing basis with higher volume. But, the highest volume of the session came in the last hour as price faded.

The S&P and DOW were much weaker in their retracements. I'm watching to see if we carve out a higher high on the NASDAQ. Tomorrow is the start of a new month, and normally we might expect institutions to put new money to work. However, it was institutional selling that was key in taking the markets lower in the prior week. So it'll be interesting to see how things play out early in the week.

Tomorrow's economic data includes Construction spending and the ISM index at 10:00 EST.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 6/01/2008 10:26:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Friday, May 30, 2008Base & Break - Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. (Public, NASDAQ:CTSH)
I found CTSH through the TI momentum scan yesterday, but it was too far gone. I liked how orderly it traded and decided to add it to my focus list. Today, it set up a near perfect B&B (mini C&H on 5 min.).

I scalped CLF long in the very early going and let it go after a 1 pt. gain as price moved into resistance at the lower blue line. Too bad.

Took it short in the afternoon. Again my target was the lower blue line. I was hoping that the market would roll over before my target was hit, so that I could partial out and hang on for a bigger gain. But the market reluctantly carved out a minor new intraday high, so I had to stick to the original plan.

CNQ carved out a symmetrical C&H pattern. Once the trade got underway, the lower volume on the BO was suspect. The second BO bar stalled, again, due to a lack of volume. The the third BO bar took off on a volume spike. Again, this was suspect because volume spikes of this size should come near the end of the move. So I partialed out at $99.00. Smart move. The bears finally got into gear in the last hour.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/30/2008 07:36:00 PM 9 comments
Labels: Base and Break, Cup-and-Handle, Momentum, NRIB



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Late Day Profit Taking as Bears Defend 200 SMA


DELL earnings could be a catalyst to morning strength, but this relief rally is feeling stretched, so I'll be watching for some profit taking and perhaps a weak close. Transports still feel bullish as oil continues to pullback.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/30/2008 12:43:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Thursday, May 29, 2008Target Trade - SINA Corporation (USA) (Public, NASDAQ:SINA)
The first chart is a daily of SINA. Resistance at $53.00 based on yesterday's close. I was looking to target trade this one to resistance if it set up a B&B at or near $52.00. Worked out perfectly. Got the idea from HCPG based on their assessment of SOHU last night.

The second trade was based on support of R2 and potential run to $54.00.


TTEK - Much better today than yesterday.

Steel sector was sort of split, so I guess I should avoid trading the leader when all the rest is so choppy, unless there's a story. I had plenty of opportunities to scratch the trade. If they don't take off right away, that's usually the best thing to do. Because the shooting star (BO bar) closed green, I hung on.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/29/2008 04:30:00 PM 7 comments
Labels: Base and Break, Cup-and-Handle, target_trade



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Thursday, May 29, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - H&S Top on Track

Minor gains for the major indices amid a low volume relief rally. Sector leadership came from Coal +4.3%, Steel +4.3%, Mining +3.4%, Chemical +3%, Paper +3%, Oil Service HOLDRs OIH +2.8%, Casino +2.2%, Crude Oil +1.5%, Natural Gas +1.4%. Banks and insurance were weak due to loan loss hikes and AIG's need to raise more capital.

The H&S top scenario is on track and the choppiness amid a lower volume rebound supports the right shoulder pattern.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/29/2008 12:20:00 AM 1 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Wednesday, May 28, 2008Dummy Trades - Sector Strength

The first trade was TTEK as highlighted in the pre-market post - Cup & Handle on the daily but it failed intraday. I scaled in $25.98 and placed a stop order at 26.01 - bad fill at $26.08. There was no backing and filling so the stock shot straight up, but the long upper shadow on the BO bar and the next, foreshadowed potential trouble. So I managed the trade not to lose - tighten stop after price carves out each new high. It didn't much beyond the 38% Fib. extension of the previous day low to the ORH.

CLF a steel sector stock, gapped up slightly. After the initial swing high, it consolidated in an increasingly narrow range. Base & break following NRIB. Price broke out nicely and then the second and third BO bars consolidated. I waited until 3 WRBs following the minor consolidation to take a partial. After the partial I tightened stop after each new high, but never got stopped.

Along with steel, coal was on fire today. Managed to catch a piece of FCL off of a bull flag consolidation and NRIB. Ag Chem also very strong today, but I missed out.

I was anticipating a relief rally in Dry Shippers after all the selling. After gapping wide, DRYS formed a C&H pattern but no IB. Took a chance and it paid off nicely.



My main screen consists of, sector quote windows on left side, indices and sectors top right, usual suspects lower right, four chart time frames - daily, 15, 5, and 1 min., as well as total view (level II). The sector quote windows are almost entirely filled with names from HCPG recent picks. This is invaluable to being in the right sector at the right time. I used to flip screens with 6 charts from each sector, but the quote screens allow you to quickly see which sectors are green/red or mixed. Sorting quote windows by % change allows to see which stocks are leading each sector.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/28/2008 08:44:00 PM 8 comments
Labels: Base and Break, Bull_Flag, Cup-and-Handle, Gapper, NRIB



Tuesday, May 27, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Relief
H&S top is playing out according to plan.

The 15 min. chart looks like an inverse H&S bottom. On a measured move basis, we can expect to climb back up to resistance at 2510.

S&P much weaker than the NAZ, but 50 SMA held as support today and prompted a somewhat choppy, low volume relief rally.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/27/2008 10:04:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Base & Break - Reasearch In Motion Ltd. (USA) (Public NASDAQ: RIMM)
Today my trading strategy was to look for solid base and break setups based on a relief rally following last weeks' sell-off. As noted in my NASDAQ post, I'm looking at a possible right shoulder as part of a mini H&S top formation. The right shoulder generally has much less volume and can be quite choppy, so the need for solid setups is a must.

I stuck to my usual suspects list. Most trades didn't reach the full extension, but there were no losses.







The best trade was RIMM off of a near perfect three pivot base. I took a partial at the 100% Fib. extension of the reaction swing low to the base. This also matched up with 3 consecutive WRBs 15 min.

The second half extended to 1.62%. Sweet!

ESRX was a base within a base. The trade was very slow and didn't reach the full extension.

GRMN was a low risk setup at the same level as Friday's base, but it didn't do much until the last minutes of the session, but I had previously exited the trade.

FWLT was a NR base in line with Friday's C&H base. I was looking for a gap fill but time ran out.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/27/2008 07:18:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Base and Break, NBR, Pivot Point


Sunday, May 25, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Testing Trendline



It now appears as though the NASDAQ may be forming a mini H&S top with the left shoulder and head in place following Friday's action. Now we need a relief rally after all this selling to carve out the left shoulder. This is all speculative, but nevertheless a real possibility as price tests the trend line with a hammer reversal bar.

After ending last week at the lowest levels since seen since Oct, market volatility rose steadily this week as equities declined (S&P -3.4% on the week, Dow -3.8% on the week, Nasdaq comp -3.5% on the week). The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) is up 20% from last Friday's close, now at 19.68, while the tech-focused VXN (CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index) is up 21% on the week at 23.87. Expectations for near-term volatility in the market increased steadily over the course of the week, with equities reversing early in the week after failing to hold gains, oil prices setting new highs and the mid-week FOMC minutes adding to concerns about the economy.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/25/2008 12:58:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ

hefeiddd

Thursday, May 22, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Narrow Range Consolidation
A truce after all the selling in the form of a NRIB on light volume. Trading might be light again tomorrow ahead of the long holiday weekend. Existing home sales out at 10:00 tomorrow might stir things up.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/22/2008 10:07:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Gapper Trade of the Day - TBS International Limited (Public, NASDAQ:TBSI)
TBSI from the WL and highlighted on the Briefing.com gapper list, set up a low risk short following a narrow range consolidation. The entire group was weak including DRYS. A quick look at the DRYS daily chart and it is clear that this is a reversal as opposed to a retracement. What's the difference between a reversal and a retracement? Volume - high volume on reversals as opposed to lower or declining volume on a retracement. Three WRBs in less than a week and a 22% price decline. The bull is gone and the bears are clearly in control.



V was a HCPG pick at $78.00. Thought I had missed the move on this one in early trade, but then V delivered a low risk, dummy short (NRIB -NR7) right on the number. Sweet!

LEH was a B&B short. The target was the ORL and I took a partial midway near support from the the second bar low.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/22/2008 08:14:00 PM 15 comments
Labels: Base and Break, Gapper, NR7, NRIB, Volume



Wednesday, May 21, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bearish Expansion




Higher oil and FOMC minutes beat up the markets today. As noted yesterday the down sloping 50 SMA was observed as resistance on the 15 minute intraday chart.

FOMC highlighted weakening economic activity, slowing growth in consumer spending, softening labor market, financial/housing markets still under stress, and no more rate cuts even if economy contracts.

Technical damage - loss of 20 EMA on the daily and trend line break on S&P. The aggressive reversal off of Monday's highs leaves the door open for more weakness, but the NASDAQ is coming into support levels as highlighted on the chart, as well as, May low at 2535/2429.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/21/2008 08:36:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Dummy Trade of the Day - Sohu.com Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:SOHU)
The first chart is the 15 minute NASDAQ Emini futures. Last night I said, "The key elements to watch are the depth and choppiness of the retracement. On the 15 minute chart, I would look for prices to hold below the declining 50 period SMA in order to maintain the corrective bias."

I expected that we might get a choppy reversal attempt after price retested yesterday's lows. If you click on the chart above to enlarge you will see that price observed the declining 50 SMA on both tests. After restesting yesterday's lows, price attempted to reverse but, it couldn't get any traction due to lack of volume.

The NQ chart helps guide my trading. So after failing on the open, I was looking to short weakness.

The next chart is the LEH daily, which I highlighted as a focus list chart a while back. Yesterday the trendline was broken, but had no momentum. Today it broke the base (black line segment) shortly after the open and fell like a hot knife through butter until it capitulated.




HUM was a B&B dummy long that I found on my momentum scan yesterday. If not for today's market weakness, I think this stock could have done much better as it attempts to rally out of a base on the daily.

DRYS was a C&H base & break. There was no momentum beyond the BO bar. When price rallied out of a two bar consolidation and then gave it back, I was stopped out. After all, $133 oil is not favorable for transports.

Normal Fib. extensions for these setups is 100%. When both DRYS and HUM failed, it flagged the overall market weakness and it was back to looking for short setups.


SOHU carved out a bearish rounded double top pattern. The only problem I had with the setup is that it triggered before the FOMC minutes were released. But after reading the minutes, which were pretty gloomy, there was no need to take a partial at the blue support line.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/21/2008 07:08:00 PM 18 comments
Labels: Capitulation, Cup-and-Handle, Fibonacci, Focus_List, Support_Resistance



Tuesday, May 20, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Narrow Range Day




Higher crude and worrisome core PPI data weighed on the markets today. The NASDAQ managed to carve out a NRB hammer bar which may result in a reversal. The key elements to watch are the depth and choppiness of the retracement. On the 15 minute chart, I would look for prices to hold below the declining 50 period SMA in order to maintain the corrective bias.

The S&P is a little more bearish with a deeper close today. The proximity to the lower trend line could provide support.

The CBOE is back above 1 which implies more put buying.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/20/2008 08:54:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



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Tuesday, May 20, 2008Gapper Bear Flag - BHP Billiton Ltd. (Public, NYSE:BHP)
BHP was a Briefing gapper. It carved out a bearish flag-like pattern. It wasn't really obvious from the volume that this was a flag. I usually like to see a clearer sign of declining volume. However, the 5 minute time frame (below) was clear in its rejection of price at the declining 20 ema and I decided to take the trade. I took a partial after 3 consecutive WRBs and was stopped out when price reversed after carving out a hammer.


OXY set up out a low risk entry at the base of yesterday's high. Once in the trade I wasn't really feeling any momentum and decided to play a textbook Trader-X exit at the 38% Fib. extension of the previous day low to the ORH.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/20/2008 08:20:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: 3_WRBs, Bearish_Flag, Fibonacci, Gapper, Trader-X



Monday, May 19, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Hanging Man Confirmed

This morning's rally followed through on last week's bullish momentum as the S&P finally pushed through its 200 DMA, but shortly after lunch the bears put up some defense and the indices sold off rapidly, and on high volume. Technology (cautious comments from SNDK) and the momentum groups (AG/Chem, Solar, and Shipping) paced the retreat.

Friday's hanging man on the NASDAQ was confirmed with a lower close. The S&P failed to close above 200 DMA and the Transports (DOW Theory) hit a new all time high on an intraday basis today. However, the Transports carved out a shooting star and could see some follow through pressure tomorrow.


The Transports have rallied out of an inverse Head & Shoulders base. After 5 waves, the measured move 100% is almost complete. Notice how volume is waning on the last leg up.



We've had three high volume sell-offs in as many weeks, however, except for the first pullback, there's been no follow through as we continue to make higher highs. We need to see a breach and a close below today's lows in order to anticipate further downside corrective action.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/19/2008 09:35:00 PM 3 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Three Words "Hanging Man Confirmed"
My first two morning shorts only trickled in until the market sold off and at one point I was more than a little frustrated and thought I would likely get stopped out. But once the market reversed I was happy I had them, especially SNDK.


AMZN, from the WL and the Briefing.com gapper list, had great volume so I was happy to jump in as price broke out of a three bar consolidation. My target was 100% Fib. extension of the ORL to the consolidation base. I took a partial after 3 WRBs to lock in some profits.

The next four trades all triggered around the same time plus I had HANS and SNDK on the go. So nothing fancy except for the two big ones, DRYS and AGU, I was just trying and hoping for 3 consecutive red bars, wide or not.

My beloved ESRX went according to plan. It should noted that both HANS and ESRX carved out bullish morning star reversal patterns which did not confirm. This was probably an early warning sign, but at the time I didn't know it. I thought it was midday doldrums - chop chop.

I was scoping out DRYs all day because it is so far extended. I was closely monitoring the E-mini NASDAQ futures as they made a new high just before reversing. DRYS broke down before the Futures confirmed. But there was no head fake on DRYS. I took a partial as price approached Friday's low and put a stop at $110.50 based on the action on the 1 minute chart.


AGU from HCPG's trading list, looked like an inverted C&H. I took a partial at the blue line which was a support and pivot area from late last week, but I guess it wasn't necessary. If I didn't have so many open positions at the same time, I might have done better with this one, but it's good. I'm very happy with it.

GRMN was gap down and just before it fell down, I was anticipating, it might turn into a long. Then it carved out a NR hanging man.

I've been anticipating a sell-off for some time now. If you are reading my NASDAQ technical posts, today's sell-off was no surprise, and hopefully you were able to profit in a big way.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/19/2008 03:50:00 PM 12 comments
Labels: 3_WRBs, Cup-and-Handle, Fibonacci, Gapper



Sunday, May 18, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Hanging Man to End Bullish Week


The stock indices followed up on Thursday's strong performance with a move to new multi-month highs in opening trade Friday but gains were extremely minimal with the S&P 500 and Dow stalling shy of their 200 day sma, before reversing for some morning profit taking. The pullback retraced close to 62% of the previous day's range before stabilizing ahead of a late day move back to recent range tops. This action carved out a hanging man on the NASDAQ. Hanging men need to be confirmed, so we need to see a close below before we can anticipate a pullback.

That said there are some early warning signs that lead us to believe that a correction is likely at these levels. We see some negative divergence of the RSI and MACD on the intraday chart. Heavier volume during recent intraday profit taking periods. A low fear factor as measured by the VXN volatility index which is testing a key pivot point as highlighted on the chart. This level marked the most recent peaks in October 2007. Other tell tale signs are a general lack of participation in recent bullish action by NASDAQ leaders, as well as financials on the S&P. Also the ratio of stocks carving out bearish engulfing bars vs. bullish engulfing bars: 87:13 on the NAZ and 67:6 on the NYSE.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/18/2008 03:58:00 AM 4 comments
Labels: Hanging_Man, NASDAQ

hefeiddd

Dummy Trades - Follow the Market
Today I tried to stay in tune with the market as much as possible instead of putting my personal bias to work on the short side. As you can see from the E mini NASDAQ futures chart above, the easy money in the early going was on the short side. We gapped up and retraced 62% of the move from yesterday's low to the ORH. After that it was back filling until the late session rally back up to yesterday's highs.

My first trade was ESRX break of inside bar. Cover as price retests yesterday's low.

The next trade was LEH. This time, I tried to get in as close as possible to the whole $ number because it lined up with yesterday's afternoon base. This gave me a tighter stop as there was no IB anyway. I took a partial as price fell into the next level base from yesterday and was stopped out on the balance.

HANS was a break of 2 IBs . Small move again today but less chop. Maybe the third trade will be the charm as the daily chart is still lining up for a bear flag BO.

I traded exclusively my own WL today, except SNDA which was a carryover gapper from yesterday. This was an inverse C&H pattern which extended the full 100%. I took a partial after 3 consecutive WRBs.

GRMN has been in rally mode for several days and I finally decided to join in. I entered on a base within the bigger C&H pattern. I exited at the 100% Fib. extension level thinking that was the end of the move. The 100% level was just pennies away from the daily 50 SMA and I was sure that it would provide resistance as it hasn't been touched since December 2007. Yeah, sometimes I over analyze. In hindsight, GRMN had just come out of a four bar consolidation, so it should have been good for 3 WRBs as opposed to the one that I exited on. Next time I'll partial out instead of anticipating.



DRYS - 2 NRIB s- Took a partial after 1 pt. as price came into resistance and stopped out on the balance.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/16/2008 07:06:00 PM 6 comments
Labels: 2_Inside, Cup-and-Handle, Fibonacci, Fibonacci_retracement, NRIB



Thursday, May 15, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - 200 DMA Captured on Closing Basis
Okay, so we made another new high and held into the close to take out the 200DMA. Yesterday's bearish rant was foiled early in the session when we failed to confirm yesterday's shooting star. We chopped our way back up after testing yesterday's low as support early in the session. Again, we got relatively little participation from large cap tech leaders AAPL, RIMM, GOOG and BIDU. Instead the leaders of today's NASDAQ 100 rally were losers such as NVDA and FMCN. Today's higher volume is courtesy of pre-options expiration, not to confused with bullish momentum. Enough said, the real test of the strength of this rally will be resistance from former support.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/15/2008 10:24:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Pre-OPEX Narrow Range Chop
I had a bearish strategy going into the session, but the first trade was quickly foiled as price reversed after the initial move lower. HOLX is a focus list short, but today it managed to save itself.

SDTH was a high volume gapper. The NRIB - gravestone doji was compelling, but it held the $8.00, more or less, as support.

The pre-OPEX grind was interrupted briefly when solars and energy started to sell-off. I saw most of my WL solars printing red on the Trade-Ideas scanner, followed shortly after by oil and energy, so I waited for a pause and managed to get in on a large portion of the swoon in CNQ.

I find that most of the pre-OPEX Thursday is spent in narrow range trade, which is best suited to buying support and selling resistance. That's what I tried to do here with HANS when I saw two confirmed hanging men, but the result was almost all chop and very little in the way of reward.

It seems that the first and last hour of the session offered the most opportunity. SOL, a carryover gapper from yesterday made my day.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/15/2008 09:23:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Fibonacci, Gapper, Hanging_Man



Wednesday, May 14, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Late Day Profit Taking Carves Out Bearish Shooting Star



All of the above charts are telling me one thing - leave yourself open to some more selling. There was a clear failure at the test of the down sloping 200 DMA on the NAZ. The early move up was on tepid volume and the afternoon sell-off was on increasing volume into the close. The result was a bearish shooting star. The little curving pattern forming on the McClellan Oscillator is also interesting. We'll follow-up in a few days to see how it pans out. Leadership for this afternoon's sell off was courtesy of large cap tech names we know and love - AAPL, RIMM, BIDU, GOOG...

The HANS daily chart below is setting up a nice bear flag after a wide, high volume flag pole.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/14/2008 10:12:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Gapper Dummy Trade - Deere & Company (Public, NYSE:DE)
DE was a Briefing.com earnings gapper this morning and had strong pre-market volume on my Trade-Ideas Scanner. This is how I select my gapper focus list. I look for big volume in pre-market because, presumably, it will continue into the trading session.

As you can see from the 15 minute chart above, DE broke down fairly quickly and I thought it might go without me. Luckily, we got a nice bear flag on the 5 minute time frame, and I was able to take a low risk entry on the bear flag BO. Stop above last red bar in the flag. It fell right into the 38% Fib. extension of the previous day to the 15 min. ORL and then bounced. (Trader-X knowledge).

A second trade was possible around midday when price failed to take out the 10 period EMA in a series of NR offsets. I had to leave shortly after 1:00, so I couldn't take advantage of the setup. Hope some of you were in there.


MOS was an HCPG trading list pick from last night's newsletter. These guys and gal are in the zone, they're on fire.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/14/2008 07:33:00 PM 10 comments
Labels: Fibonacci, Gapper, HCPG, Trade_Ideas, Trader-X



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Tuesday, May 13, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Testing Resistance


Disappointing guidance from WMT and estimate cuts for key financials kept the bulls on the sidelines for most of the session. This is more obvious on the S&P which is far from testing recent highs.

Last Wednesday the markets sold off shortly after crude inventories at 10:30, so I'll be watching how the futures react to that key data. Also watch for core CPI in the pre-market.

The LEH chart looks poised to break out any day now.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/13/2008 11:17:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Base & Break and Gapper Trades - ATVI, CSIQ, FWLT, YGE, OXY, WLT
Another very profitable day with the HCPG trading list (OXY,YGE FWLT) plus a few of my own.

ATVI was a big gapper winner last week, which I added to WL. It based along $31.00 all afternoon yesterday and triggered an easy trade early today.

CSIQ was a big earnings beat with a wide gap. I saw a C&H base and break setup, but it ran out of steam. It felt shaky from the second BO bar, so I anxious to book some profit. Not shortable through IB. Failures often lead to fast moves and this is a good example.

FWLT was a sympathy play on FLR earnings. Engineering & Construction firms, as a group did well today. Other names include MDR, SGR, JEC, ACM, and FLS.

OXY was a HCPG trading list stock and I played the first base. Very choppy midday, but it's not always easy to pick a good support level on NYSE stocks, so I just hung in as long as it remained above yesterday's high. The target was $90.00 but I let it go at R2 which was just about 15-20 cents away.

WLT was a bull flag play on the daily from last night's focus list. Early entry at $84.00 on a 4 bar 5 min. B&B. Took a partial and was stopped out. After tagging the upper blue line twice, I placed a buy stop order 2 cents above and it triggered while I was preoccupied with another setup. It rallied nicely to the next level, then it chopped around. I felt there was insufficient volume to really extend properly, but I stuck with as long as I could.

YGE was another HCPG pick and a sympathy play on CSIQ. Much better extension than CSIQ. I took my usual partial after 3 consecutive WRBs. Rarely does a stock extend beyond 138% so the final exit was obvious.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/13/2008 04:44:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Base and Break, Cup-and-Handle, Fibonacci, Focus_List, Gapper



Monday, May 12, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Tech Leads following RIMM's Bold announcement


Release of the technical details of RIMM's new Blackberry Bold helped tech get off the ground today. The NAZ led the markets higher, but the lack of volume is suspect.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/12/2008 10:05:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Focus List Trades - SOHU, RIMM, EXM, PRGO
SOHU, RIMM and EXM were from HCPG's trading list. SOHU was the charm. RIMM and EXM were more challenging in finding the correct entry point. EXM fell into a sort of dead zone and took a long time to becoming profitable. Basically, I tightened the stop after each new high as depicted by the red line segments. I missed the recommended entry point for EXM, but it worked out well in the end.



PRGO was from my focus list. It closed below support, however, after the initial swoon it appeared as if there was a buy program in play. There was way too much volume on the consolidation so I exited the trade.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/12/2008 09:24:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Base and Break

hefeiddd

Focus List - FLS, WLT


Two stocks to add to the focus list. Managed to catch a piece of FLS off of the TI scanner today. Feels like it finally wants to move higher.

Also QCOM, and ESRX, but FLS and WLT are the better ones of the group IMO.

Blogger problems again. Almost impossible to load charts and then once they're in, it takes forever to enlarge.

I'm done posting until they get it together.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/12/2008 07:49:00 PM 7 comments
Labels: Focus_List



Gapper Dummy Trade - AnnTaylor Stores Corp. (Public, NYSE:ANN)
From the Briefing.com gapper list, ANN had good pre-market volume and price held in the upper range of the PM spike. Entered long as soon a price closed near the ORH after establishing support from the rising 5 period EMA. I think this is another good example of a Trader-X style trade.

The preliminary target was the 38% Fib. extension of the previous day low to the ORH. I was stopped out shortly after when I saw a gravestone doji stick.

Several nice trades from the HCPG
trading list which I'll post later tonight.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/12/2008 04:05:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Fibonacci, Gapper, Gravestone_Doji, ORH



Focus List


ADSK bull flag, reporting earnings on Thursday.


HCPG highlighted FWLT at $70.00 about two weeks ago and now it's closing in on that number again.

Stocks from my usual suspects list setting up for this week. Click on charts to enlarge.





[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/12/2008 12:02:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: Focus_List



Sunday, May 11, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Low Volume, Narrow Range Day


After four consecutive weeks of gains, we needed this pullback, after all what are we rallying about anyway. We rallied on the Bear Stearns bailout, but now we see that financials are pulling back, and oil prices are at their highest as inflation rears its ugly head.

The VXN (Nasdaq Volatility Index) is higher by 9% on the week at 23.53. The "fear gauges" retested their 2008 lows mid-week but have since modestly rebounded with the major indices trading lower over the past two days to end the week in negative territory (SPX currently -1.9% on the week, Dow -2.5% and Nasdaq -1.5%).


A low volume, narrow range session as we continue to notch lower lows. Support is about 30 points away from Friday's close, so I expect we'll bounce early this week.





[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/11/2008 10:21:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Saturday, May 10, 2008Focus List Trades - National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. (Public, NYSE:NOV)
NOV was a HCPG pick with trigger at $76.00. Yesterday's daily WRB on high volume was the lead in and if you notice how orderly the 15 minute chart was, it seemed like a perfect segway for continuation.

Today's ORH was at the number, followed by a steady consolidation. Shortly after lunch, it setup a low risk dummy entry. By that time the pattern looked somewhat like a C&H base, so I used the Fib. extension from the ORL to the base to calculate a measured move of 100% typical of the C&H pattern.


YGE was another HCPG pick. After a weak open and slide to support, I saw a perfect bearish flag taking shape.

Unfortunately it didn't trigger, instead we attempted to reverse. Wait for a proper base to form and take it long. Partial as price approached ORH.

COG from my own WL, appears to be forming a double top of the daily (to be confirmed by a close below the daily PP around $59.00). I saw 3 NRIBs screaming short me. Target next level support.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/10/2008 12:53:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: Base and Break, Bearish_Flag, Cup-and-Handle, HCPG, NRIB



Gapper Dummy Trade of Day - Activision, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ATVI)
The first chart is the daily for ATVI, from Briefing.com gapper list. It was active in pre-market, but more importantly it was testing the all time high which was just shy of the round number $30.00.

ATVI tested $30.00 on 3/15 but was too far from the rising 5 period EMA. We had 3 NRIBs, the last of which was NR7. Still, my trigger number was $30.00 and the next bullish green stick closed on it. Textbook Trader-X gapper setup. The fact that it was trading in the daily spot was a bonus, and incentive to stay in the trade as long as possible. I took a partial at the 38% Fib. extension of the previous day low to the base ($30.00) for a 1 pt. gain, and closed the balance EOD.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/10/2008 12:17:00 AM 6 comments
Labels: Fibonacci, Gapper



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Thursday, May 08, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Narrow Range Inside Bar

Not much to say about today's session, except snooze fest. We carved out a NRIB in the lower half of yesterday's WRB. The 15 minute chart sums it up well, a choppy, unsuccessful attempt to reverse some of yesterday's losses. Tomorrow is Friday, and some Friday afternoons have been noted for their selling power, so be aware.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/08/2008 10:37:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Cup & Handle - Suncor Energy Inc. (Public NYSE: SU)
SU carved out a C&H at the base of the morning reversal. I exited after a 100% measured move, but it still kept going.


ADSK daily - bullish flag pattern.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/08/2008 04:36:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Bull_Flag, Cup-and-Handle






Handlebars by Denver's Flobots

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/08/2008 01:05:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: Entertainment



Wednesday, May 07, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bearish Outside Day


The bears took over the market in a big way today. The rate cut rally is coming to a close and I expect we'll get some real corrective action, notwithstanding a catalyst on the bull side.

The NASDAQ printed a higher high following the release of crude inventories and then carved out a bearish tweezer top, after which the selling began in earnest. Sector leadership on the downside transports, finance, housing, biotechs and internet, but all sectors, I follow were in the red by the end of the session.

Most of the rally off of the March lows has been on relative weak momentum as measured by the ADX. In fact, we only just recently rose above 20, so I suspect with rate cuts all but over, the markets will succumb to the bears short-term, as there seems to be little reason to move higher.

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: IDSY +27.3%; BAGL +18.2%; DRRX +17.1%; CROX +14.2%; NVEC +9.9%; URS +9.8%; AVCA +7.9%; WG +4.3%; AHS +4.0%; PHX +3.7%; VITA +3.5%; AUY +3.3%; ENSG +3.1%; EAC +3.0%; GCOM +2.7%; VHI +2.4%; PRSC +2.3%; ZIPR +2.3%; FCH +1.7%; BBBB +1.5%; PCR +1.5%; RUSHA +1.4%; PSSI +1.4%; AEL +1.4%; ISLN +1.4%; GSAT +1.4%; ARD +1.4%; NWS +1.3%; ROCK +1.3%; NKTR +1.2%; CPII +1.1%; CCRN +1.1%; SGU +1.0%... Companies trading down in reaction to earnings: SCI -27.5%; AIRN -17.0%; VRAZ -15.0%; KFS -13.8%; HANS -13.5%; OVEN -12.0%; NHWK -10.2%; NSR -9.2%; PSPT -8.5%; XRM -5.4%; CPNO -5.2%; INAP -4.4%; DPM -4.0%; ANDE -4.0%; CCRT -2.2%; SMSI -2.1%; GOLF-1.5%; GIL -1.4%; MSCS -1.3%; ACLS -1.1%; NPSP -1.0% ... Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: ONT +15.7% (Sun adds comprehensive video capabilities to ubiquitous Java platform with On2 Technologies); TCX +12.7% (Announces a $10 million Stock Buyback Program); ZUMZ +7.7% (reports same store sales increase of 4.1% vs. 2.5% Briefing.com consensus); DSCO +4.9% (KL-4 surfactant technology displays antimicrobial properties and does not induce immune response in preclinical models); NCST +2.9% (appoints David Holtz as Vice President and CFO); SFE +2.0% (announces share repurchase of up to $10 mln; proposes reverse stock split); ITWO +1.7% (provides update on strategic review process; Chairman of the Board steps down); KOP +1.4% (announces retirement of Board Chairman and names successor); NKTR +1.2% (receives patent covering pulmonary targeted antibiotics)... Companies trading lower in reaction to news: RCMT -16.5% (announces Acquisition of MBH Solutions for $13 mln); NHWK -10.2% (announces dutch tender offer for its common stock); HOV -6.1% (announces 14 mln share follow-on offering); WU -1.4% (files S-3 ASR for offering of debt securities); APP -1.1% (reports April same store sales +27%); IBKR -0.7% (announces termination of follow-on offering).

AH courtesy of Briefing.com

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/07/2008 09:53:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Bear Flags - Perrigo Company (Public NASDAQ:PRGO) ; Sohu.com Inc. (Public NASDAQ:SOHU)
Short the market. Yesterday we rallied on bad news, so today we took it back with a vengeance.

PRGO was a bear flag continuation play from yesterday's earnings gap.

SOHU bear flag. This is obviously the trade of the day. SOHU, from the WL, was unbelievable, a trader's dream in that it never carved out a higher high all day.


JASO, also from the WL, carved out an inside bar at the base of support.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/07/2008 04:01:00 PM 10 comments
Labels: Bearish_Flag, Bearish_Pennant, Gapper, Hanging_Man



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Solid Reversal

Solid reversal day for the market. The day started off on a bearish note with worse than expected earnings in Finance (UBS, FNM) and Housing (DHI) along with new all time highs in Crude Oil setting the tone for the weak opening. It's a wonder we were able to get such a big bounce.

CSCO guidance after hours did not impress.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/07/2008 12:17:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Tuesday, May 06, 2008Gapper Dummy Trade of the Day - Perrigo Company (Public NASDAQ:PRGO)
PRGO is a WL stock as well as a Briefing.com gapper and was quite active in pre-market trade. After an early swoon, it retraced back up to early support which now turned into resistance. It carved out a tweezer top at this level, and I shorted as price took out the previous bar low. Took a partial as price retested the morning swing low and covered the balance just above the 50% Fib. extension of the previous day high to the ORL.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/06/2008 04:18:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Gapper, Support_Resistance, Tweezer_Top



Monday, May 05, 2008Good Setups Hard to Find
I liked the fact that SU held the 5 EMA on a closing basis and hoped it could ultimately take out the early swing high and move up to the $117.00 PP. I took a partial at $115.50 and was hoping for a C&H, but I bailed below the three bar support, fearing it would retrace back down to the rising 20 EMA.
ESRX was a failed C&H pattern at the $70.00 level.

ANR -I waited for confirmation.

All in all, there was a general lack of momentum.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/05/2008 10:11:00 PM 3 comments




Gap Continuation - Dynamic Materials Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:BOOM)
Todays' gapper list was short, and for the most part choppy, so I looked at some carryover from Friday's list. BOOM set up a low risk entry at the cusp of Friday's support level so I took the trade. Initially, it found support at S1 and I took a partial, but I really felt after all this basing it could go lower. A lot of backing and filling, but eventually it generated a decent profit. My ultimate target was S2, but it felt like a reversal was going take place just above $34.00 (tweezer bottom) near the 50% Fib. extension from the previous day high to the base.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/05/2008 09:30:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Fibonacci, NRIB, Tweezer_Bottom



Friday, May 02, 2008Dummy Gapper Trades - (Public, NYSE:NT) Bear Flag; (Public, NASDAQ:JAVA) Break of ORL 2 NRIBs
NT gapped up but immediately succumbed to weakness. It made a decisive move lower, briefly found support at the previous day high and formed a bear flag. Short after price closes below support of the black line and cover at S2 on a huge volume spike.

JAVA was a more textbook dummy setup (Trader-X style). I saw two NRIBs just above the base of the ORL. I scaled in on the break of the NRIBs and loaded up on the break of the ORL. Now, I know that the down sloping 5 period SMA was a little distance from the execution but I felt that the 2 NRIBs made up for that caveat.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/02/2008 04:19:00 PM 12 comments
Labels: 2_Inside, Bearish_Flag, Dummy, Gapper, NRIB



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hefeiddd

Thursday, May 01, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Expansion



The only thing I got right in last night's post was expansion. The rate cut and new institutional money went to work in a big way today. The $SOX was the big tech winner, up 4% and closing at the base of a major pivot point 400 ( SNDK up 7% on the day). Tomorrow's jobs data will set the trading agenda.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/01/2008 10:03:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Dummy Gapper Trades - (public NASDAQ : HOLX) Bear Flag; (Public NASDAQ :WYNN) Cup & Handle

Pretty standard fair with these two dummy trades. I'm really liking this bear flag pattern on the high volume gap downs. The C&H as most regular readers know, is one of my favorite long patterns. I took a partial on WYNN because I figured the down sloping 50 MA would act as resistance. Took off the balance at the usual 100% fib. extension from the low of the cup to base.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 5/01/2008 04:49:00 PM 10 comments
Labels: Bearish_Flag, Cup-and-Handle, Fibonacci, Gapper



Wednesday, April 30, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Post FED Pullback?
We could sell-off in the aftermath of the FED policy and the possible end of rate cuts unless earnings overshadow. Several aspects of the chart highlight a potential pullback including today's bearish engulfing on high volume. If you look at the intraday Qs, you'll see that most of today's volume kicked in after the statement. We also have a bearish tweezer top from last Thursday's high and today's high. Failures often result in fast moves, so it shouldn't come as a surprise if the bears gain some traction here. Also, within the tweezer top we've had a three day period of price/volume contraction which usually leads to expansion.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/30/2008 11:22:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Dummy Pre-FED Trades - Short All Round
RSTI showed up on the TI pre-market scan - very active just ahead of the open on this wide gap. I almost gave up on this one after the wide 5th bar, but then I noticed 2 NRIBs and a nice NR setup taking shape on the 5 minute time frame below.

If it wasn't for the FED, I could have stayed in this one all the way back down to the ORL, but my rules don't permit any open trades when the statement is issued.



FWLT, from the WL - continued weakness from yesterday. 3 IBs below yesterday's lower range sets up the entry.
SOHU, from the WL gapped down and set up 2 IBs just below yesterday's trading range. My sell stop didn't trigger and I forgot about it until I heard the beep as the trade executed much later. By the time I got to it, it was well in the money.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/30/2008 08:35:00 PM 6 comments
Labels: Gapper, Inside Bars



Post FED Policy Trades - Buy Gold, Sell the Market
Observation: the USD falls when interest rates decrease and gold falls when the USD rallies and vice versa. So based on that logic, and the consensus quarter point rate decrease, I set up this long entry on ABX going into the policy statement. It was basically a no brainer because ABX, was anticipating the move prior to 2:15 EST. That's approx. 2R on the extension to R2. The intial stop is wide (red line segment) because of anticipated post FED choppiness.

As you can see from the 1 min. chart of the QQQQ above, the initial FED reaction was very choppy. But as I said in last night's NASDAQ post, the consensus 1/4 pt. rate cut with potential pause going forward would not result in a market rally. After a lot of back and forth, triangle type action, I shorted the Qs and added to my position on a mini bear flag a short time later. I covered as a base started to form at the $47.20 level.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/30/2008 04:27:00 PM 7 comments
Labels: Bearish_Flag, FED



Tuesday, April 29, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Narrow Range Ahead of FED


Another choppy, mixed day ahead of the FED. Experts are calling for 0.25 BP cut and a statement discussing potential pause. I don't expect markets to rally on that news, but we'll soon see.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/29/2008 09:01:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Cup & Handle - Reasearch In Motion Ltd. (USA) (Public NASDAQ: RIMM)
RIMM from the WL formed a C&H base. Cautious trading ahead of the FED. I waited until price took out the topping shadow and the round $ number $125.00. Low volume as the handle formed led to price and volume expansion on the BO. I took a partial after 3 consecutive WRBs and I was stopped out a while later as the markets started to sell off late in the session.

FWLT from my WL and a HCPG pick, gapped down and carved out an IB that closed at the base of the ORL and just under S2. My target was the daily reaction swing high from early April. Since the market was so weak, I took a partial at that level and moved stop to BE. Didn't get much more out of it.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/29/2008 08:08:00 PM 17 comments
Labels: Cup-and-Handle, Gapper, ORL, Pivot Point



Gapper Dummy Trade of Day - Biogen Idec Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:BIIB)

BIIB was very active in pre-market (Trade-Ideas pre-market scan), however, it almost put me to sleep midday, as I waited for my sell stop order to trigger. BIIB could not close above the pre-market high (upper blue line) or the 10 period EMA (pale blue line). I set my sell stop order below the narrow base. My target was the ORL.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/29/2008 07:53:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Gapper, ORL, Pre-Market High



Monday, April 28, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - 2 Inside on Declining Volume

Anemic volume ahead of the FED on Wednesday. Minor gains were wiped out in late session profit taking.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/28/2008 09:03:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



5 Minute Inside Bar - QUALCOMM, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:QCOM)

I'm replacing SIGM with QCOM in the WL. 5 minute IB (I like it when it's inside the shadow of the previous bar). Long break of outside bar resulted in a vertical move up to daily resistance at $44.00.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/28/2008 08:05:00 PM 12 comments
Labels: Inside Bars



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hefeiddd

Thursday, April 24, 2008Dummy Trade of the Day - QUALCOMM, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:QCOM)
QCOM was an earnings play. Long on a B&B above the previous day highs.

VDSI was a gap down and a long wait until the bear flag broke out, similar to my ABX trade yesterday.

I'm taking Friday off. No Pre-Market Post tomorrow.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/24/2008 09:22:00 PM 8 comments
Labels: Base and Break, Bearish_Flag, Gapper



Wednesday, April 23, 2008Gapper Bear Flag - Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (Public, NYSE:ABX)
ABX from my WL, gapped down on the open near the lows of its recent daily trading range. It formed a bear flag over the course of the morning. A slow mover, but it eventually got the job done.

ESRX formed a C&H, or so I thought. I entered as price broke R2. It started out well, but then came the retest after which I expected it to move like a C&H should move. But no, it stalled and I decided to partial out at the 25% Fib. extension of the ORL to the base, and move the stop to BE.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/23/2008 08:44:00 PM 2 comments
Labels: Bearish_Flag, Cup-and-Handle, Gapper



Tuesday, April 22, 2008Trade of the Day - DryShips Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:DRYS)
High Chart Patterns Pick from last night's newsletter. They've done a complete analysis of the trade in tonight's letter, which is also posted on their their blog. GOOD READING.

My only comment is Thanks! And secondly, I traded this cautiously because the market was so bearish. When I do that I get stopped out, and inevitably end up getting back in at almost the same price I was stopped on. C&H on break of morning base high with a 62% Fib. extension of the morning swing low to the base.

The thick black lines on my chart are the previous day high and low. Noticed that Harvey Walsh uses these to plan his entries. Also noted them on Anarco's blog. Big time saver.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/22/2008 08:18:00 PM 5 comments
Labels: Cup-and-Handle, Fibonacci, HCPG



Gapper Trade of the Day - BJ Services Company (Public, NYSE:BJS)
BJS from the Briefing.com gapper list was very active in pre-market. I use Trade-Ideas to scan pre-market and break down the high volume gappers from the noise.

Short the bear flag which rises into the down sloping 5 period EMA. As you can see from the chart, everything was going perfectly. No partial required until a volume spike foreshadows the end of the move. That usually works well, but here we got an analyst upgrade in the middle of the day from a third tier firm. Needless to say, that killed the trade.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/22/2008 07:57:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Bearish_Flag, Fibonacci, Gapper



Monday, April 21, 2008Cup & Handle - Apple Inc. (Public NASDAQ: AAPL)
This is how a C&H pattern should expand. I extended my Fib. lines from the ORL instead of the morning swing low. This is probably wishful thinking, but it worked. Notice price and volume contraction as the handle forms, followed by expansion on the BO of the base. I exited on strength as price approached the $168.00 level. AAPL is a WL stock and also included in HCPG newsletter.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/21/2008 05:09:00 PM 12 comments
Labels: Cup-and-Handle, Fibonacci



Gapper Dummy Trade - Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMLN)
AMLN, from the WL and the Briefing.com gapper list, didn't look compelling at the outset, but just before noon, it set up 2 NRIBs (NR7), so I took it short. I had planned to take a partial at the 38% Fib. extension of the previous day high to the ORL, but I sensed it wasn't over because there was no volume spike, so I held until the next bar which had a more meaningful burst of volume. I covered the entire position, because the move was small and I didn't want to risk giving anything back.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/21/2008 04:44:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Fibonacci, Gapper, NRIB, Volume



Sunday, April 20, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bullish Week


A strong end to a firmly bullish week. Markets gapped up on strong earnings from GOOG, CAT and C. But momentum faded into the second half of the session. I'll be watching gap support tomorrow, but doubt it will hold unless we get a catalyst early Monday.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/20/2008 10:44:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Dummy Trade of the Day - Amazon.com, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMZN)
AMZN, from the WL got a nice boost from GOOG earnings. The lengthy base that formed at $79.00 acted as support during the afternoon retracement and offered a low risk, tweezer bottom reversal for a late day pop.

ALTR, a gapper I traded on Thursday, gapped up and retraced back to Thurs. afternoon resistance (former resistance acts as support) which held as support for a second trade.

GRMN, from my focus list gapped up, retraced to Thursday afternoon resistance, which now acted as support. A perfect IB hammer set up a long entry. I got stopped out prematurely as this one was a short covering rally.


ESRX, from the focus list also found support near previous day high, and set up a low risk entry at my number $68.00. Was hoping it would set up a C&H later in the session, but R2 held as resistance,

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/20/2008 09:32:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Gapper, Inside Bars, Support_Resistance, Tweezer_Bottom, Tweezer_Top



Thursday, April 17, 2008Watch List - April 2008
My Watch List of Usual Suspects:

AAPL, ABX, ACI, AKAM, ALXN, AMZN, ANR
BIDU,
CAL, CELG, CEPH, CF, CNQ, COG, CREE, CROX, CY
DRYS
ESRX
FAST, FLS, FSLR, FWLT
GRMN
HANS
JASO, JOYG
LEH, LRCX
MANT
NIKE, NVDA
PCLN, POT, PRGO
RIMM,
SIGM, SNDK, SOHU
TBSI
V
X

Charts of Interest for Friday - ESRX, FAST, and GRMN. Click on the charts to enlarge. BO price is on the blue base. ESRX and GRMN look the best. FAST is quite extended, but if it sets up a low risk entry at the base, I'll take it.



LEH is an example from today. We had a shallow rounded base at the cusp of the three month trend line. I was looking for a setup at $42.00.

Placed an alert on the inside of both of the blue lines.

I didn't like the initial break because the bars were too wide and there was no real setup, so I passed. Eventually, LEH carved out a bullish pennant and I took it long. It was a bit choppy so I didn't go overboard on risk and size. It worked well and I even added more as it paused to consolidate.


These are base & break setups. High Chart Patterns are the experts in B&B. Their service is very affordable and I highly recommend it.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/17/2008 09:29:00 PM 13 comments
Labels: Watchlist



Gapper Cup & Handle - Altera Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:ALTR)
ALTR, an earnings gapper from the Briefing.com list, carved out a C&H pattern after a retracement to R2. The base of the C&H pattern set up right at the $21.00 point and the trigger bar closed on its high. Can't ask for more than that. At the $21.50 level it carved out a tweezer top and I tightened the stop to $21.45 based on the strength of the move thus far. C&H patterns usually have more momentum and I just wasn't feeling it here.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/17/2008 07:24:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Cup-and-Handle, Gapper, Momentum, Tweezer_Top



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hefeiddd

Wednesday, April 16, 2008High Chart Patterns Picks - CONSOL Energy Inc. (Public, NYSE:CNX)
Hats off to the team at High Chart Patterns for some great picks. HCPG's nightly newsletter includes a chart and a target entry price (blue line on my charts) for each pick. Both CNX and SID were on today's trading list along with some other winners that I didn't get to (FTEK, CSX).

The CNX number was $82, but I saw an opportunity just above $81. Exit as price approaches R2. The SID number was $42 and set up very early. Nice IB on 5 min. Once price closes above a whole $ amount, I don't like to give it back.


HANS is one of my usual suspects. The number was yesterday's low. After taking a partial I was stopped out. But if you stuck with it, you could have made much more money.

BG is a HCPG usual suspect. The third test of $116 finally succeeded. I had to leave for a dentist appointment so I missed most of the move.

It's so much easier to work with a short focus list. If the intraday chart is orderly going into the trade, it's more likely to result in an orderly trade. A choppy setup is riskier than an orderly setup, everything else being equal.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/16/2008 08:46:00 PM 12 comments
Labels: Base and Break, HCPG, Inside Bars



Tuesday, April 15, 2008Bear Flag - Sigma Designs, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:SIGM)
A bear flag is a continuation pattern, so if you see a stock swoon, look for a possible bear flag to form as price consolidates the last leg down.

Characteristics of the flag pattern - sideways consolidation on declining volume. Bear flags often slant slightly upwards like this one. Volume often diminishes just before the break and expands as the selling continues in earnest. I've added the 10 EMA here to show that as the 5 and 10 come closer together, it's time to start planning the entry. Make sure to include lower shadows when you draw the lower flag line so as not to jump the gun.

When the selling momentum really picks up and volume spikes, start planning your exit, as this foreshadows the end of the move.

This is SIGM from the Briefing.com gapper list this morning.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/15/2008 09:48:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: Bearish_Flag



Monday, April 14, 2008Failed Pattern - ManTech International Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:MANT)
The first chart of MANT is the daily timeframe. The main take away here is the failed triangle pattern which resulted in a fast move lower. The longer term trend line held as support in early trade this morning so I took it long.

The 15 minute chart shows a bearish pennant on Friday. Lots of slippage as this stock is not liquid. This morning's tweezer bottom was an invitation to go long as it lined up nicely with the longer term trendline on the daily chart. It carved out a C&H pattern midday, but failed.



CNQ, from my watch list was a HCPG newsletter pick. Lots of winners from last night's letter. IB just above R2 - long on break of outside bar. I didn't manage the exit well here because I was trying to do two things at the same time. I ended up missing my short on RIMM and botching my CNQ exit.

AFFX earnings warning hit the wires seconds after the close. A big winner for me AH. CROX also warning AH (stock was halted so no trade) and could test all time lows very shortly.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/14/2008 07:57:00 PM 4 comments
Labels: Bearish_Pennant, Trendline, Tweezer_Bottom



NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bearish Rising Wedge


An ugly end to a bad week for the bulls. King Kong's (GE) big earnings miss and lowered guidance sent the markets lower Friday. The rally looks dead for now as the rising wedge pattern could lead to lower highs and lows. But Friday's volume lacks conviction. Focus on earnings.

Companies reporting earnings the week of April 14th-18th include: Monday: ETN, GWW, ELS, INFY, and STLY... Tuesday: ADTN, FRX, GMTN, IIIN, JNJ, MTB, MI, NTRS, PII, RF, STT, USB, CHB, CSX, INTC, RLRN, STX, and SORC... Wednesday: ABT, AMB, BMI, KO, ITW, JCI, JPM, NITE, LUFK, MTOX, EDU, PJC, STJ, WFC, WWW, ATLR, ATR, AVCT, CAVM, CNW, CCK, DTLK, EBAY, GILD, GKK, IBM, ISIL, KNL, LEG, PLCM, SPSN, and UFPI... Thursday: AMFI, BK, BAX, BBT, CHKP, CIT, CMA, CY, DHR, FCS, HOG, HNI, RX, IGT, MAR, LSTR, KEY, MER, NYT, NOK, NUE, PFE, RS, SLM, LUV, SPWR, SVU, AMTD, UTX, AMD, COF, CBST, ETFC, ESLR, GOOG, ISRG, SNDK, SYK, TPX, ZION and WSO... Friday: CAT, C, HON, MAN, PRSP, SLB, WB, WL, and XRX.

Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage loss over the last five sessions include: PTRY -38.7%, DCR -34.1%, TWB -27.3%, PMII -27.3%, RIV -27.2%, NKTR -25.1%, CIT -21.8%, SMCI -21.2%, FMCN -20.7%, XXIA -20.6%, PRO -19.9%, BZ -19.2%, VCBI -19.1%, CALM -19.1%, SCSC -18.7%, AMIE -18.7%, WH -18.4%, AIR -18.2%, MKTX -17.9%, LNG -17.9%, FED -17.8%, SDXC -17.6%, SSI -17.3%, TONE -17.3%, GRMN -17.1%, INTV -16.7%, SVVS -16.6%, LEN -16.5%, PLCE -16.5%.

Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage gain over the last five sessions include: MLNM 50.9%, CVP 39.2%, FCSX 33.6%, DXCM 31.1%, NOG 25.5%, GENC 25.1%, IKN 24.1%, ICXT 23.9%, APOG 23.6%, PDLI 22.5%, NTRI 20.5%, TITN 19.7%, BEXP 17.8%, PODD 17.7%, SYNA 16.9%, NWA 16.8%, LIFC 16.8%, CLR 16.5%, TZIX 16.2%, DAL 15.8%, OSTK 14.9%, TRA 14.5%, LAYN 14.1%, IMMR 13.6%, CRY 13.4%, DPTR 13.1%, DMLP 12.6%, AIRV 12.3%, FEED 12.3%, FCFS 11.5%, ENG 11.6%, LNDC 11.2%, UCR 11.2%, ISLN 10.8%.

The co's that beat February Same Store Sales estimates include (listed according to the magnitude of the beat): Buckle (BKE) +20.9% vs. +12.5% consensus, stock gapped up 2.9% to open at $46.25 and closed up 0.4% to $45.15... BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) +6.0% vs. +2.9% consensus, stock gapped up 1.9% to $36.00 and closed up 4.0% to $36.76... Costco Wholesale (COST) +7.0% vs. +5.5% consensus, stock gapped up 0.2% to open at $66.17 and closed up 0.7% to $66.52... Aeropostale (ARO) +2.5% vs. +1.1% consensus, stock gapped up 0.5% to open at $26.28 and closed up 6.5% to $27.85... Hot Topic (HOTT) -3.5% vs. -4.3% consensus, stock gapped up 0.2% to open at $4.41


and closed up 9.5% to $4.82... The co's that missed February Same Store Sales ests include (listed according to the magnitude of the miss): Gap (GPS) -18.0% vs. -8.1% consensus, stock gapped down 0.2% to open at $18.85 and closed down 2.2% to $2.70... Stage Stores (SSI) -10.3% vs. -2.5% consensus, stock gapped down 8.4% at $14.05 and closed down 8.5% to $14.00... Saks (SKS) -2.9% vs. +3.5% consensus, stock gapped down 1.8% to open at $12.30 and closed up 1.5% to $12.71... Pacific Sunwear of California (PSUN) -8.0% vs. -1.7% consensus, stock gapped down 2.3% to open at $12.30 and closed up 2.4% at $12.89... Chico's FAS (CHS) -20.7% vs. -14.5% consensus, stock gapped down 0.8% to open at $6.35 and closed down 0.6% to $6.36.

Courtesy of Briefing.com
[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/14/2008 12:22:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ

hefeiddd

Gapper Dummy Trade - General Electric Company (Public, NYSE:GE)
The first chart is the monthly chart for GE. A quick look at long term support levels, and it was clear that the maximum move on this gapper was in the area of the March low as this level had held over several years.

The second chart shows the pre-market action. After the initial dive, $33.00 was a consolidation point and could serve as resistance should GE attempt a retrace after the open.

Trade that level with confidence after it carves out a spinning top with long upper shadow at the former support zone which will now act as resistance, even though the down sloping EMA is still far away.

Edit: This strategy works best with highly liquid, large cap stocks. I wouldn't attempt this unless there was a lot of volume in pre-market.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/14/2008 12:01:00 AM 2 comments
Labels: Gapper, Support_Resistance



Thursday, April 10, 2008Gapper Double Play - Tween Brands Inc. (Public, NYSE:TWB)
TWB was an earnings gap from the Briefing.com list. It had a wide opening range, followed by a hammer reversal and a lot of backing and filling. Eventually I spotted, a bearish flag formation as price and the down sloping 5 period ema came together. The flag culminates with NR7, the perfect trigger for price expansion.



PTRY, also from the Briefing.com list, was pointed out to me by Jamie Hodge of Trade-Ideas. I didn't trade this one, he did. But I wanted to post it in all its beauty because it's a perfect example of the opening range breakout generated from our bread and butter setup "NRIBs" (narrow range inside bars) on declining volume.

I'm keeping TWB on the focus list for tomorrow, looking for continuation. Next support level on the long term chart is $15.00, so there's still a lot of room.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 4/10/2008 11:09:00 PM 14 comments
Labels: Bearish_Flag, NR7, NRIB, Opening Range



NASDAQ Technical Picture - 3 Day Losing Streak Broken

The NASDAQ broke its 3 day losing streak on semiconductor strength (analyst upgrades). Yesterday's positive MACD divergence (15 min.) on lower prices foreshadowed a potential reversal. BTW, if you were watching the NQ futures this morning, you would have spotted a perfect bullish wedge around 10:00 leading into that momo vertical move to the upside.

Going forward, look for support at 2340 which lines up fairly closely to a 50% Fib. retracement from yesterday's low to today's high. Cont'd

Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: CDIC +19.2%; PRLS +6.8%; BSET +2.2%; IRIX +1.1%; DNA +0.3%... Trading down: INTV -7.8%... Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to news: Trading Up: EXAC +5.8% (increases guidance for Q1 and Y08); PZN +5.1% (announces March 31, 2008 assets under management; $20.4 bln vs $28.5 YoY); EFOI +1.7% (files S-3 relating to the offering by selling shareholders for sale ~2.7 mln shares of our outstanding common stock and sale up to ~3.1 mln shares of common stock issuable upon the exercise of warrants); ANGO +1.6% (offers to purchase certain Diomed assets in the United States and United Kingdom; co to pay $11 mln for assets); HRB +1.5% (Director Richard Breeden buys 2 mln shares at $21.61-21.89); BSC +0.1% (files to delay 10-Q filing due to liquidity crisis and subsequent merger with JPM)... Trading Down: PWER -17.2% (lower Q1 guidance); ACPW -11.6% (lowers Q1 revs below consensus ); PCOP -11.1% (Leslie Browne resigns as President and Chief Executive Officer); DLA -14.3% (lowers Q3 guidance; issues downside FY08 guidance); PED -4.3% (announces it will begin trading on the NASDAQ on April 22 under the new symbol "SPRO"); ROIAK -1.7% (announced that it has acquired the social networking company, Community Connect, for a transaction price of ~$38 mln dollars); PRU -1.0% (designates shelf registration statement and files prospectus supplement to effect resales of its floating rate convertible senior notes due December 15, 2037).

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Posted by Jamie at 4/10/2008 09:59:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Wednesday, April 09, 2008NASDAQ Technical Picture - Trendline Breach


As you can see from the NASDAQ daily chart, we have a broken trend line on higher volume. The Qs breached the trend line on the opening range and that was a cue to get short. We have gap support and the 50 DMA just below, both of which line fairly nicely with the 38% Fibonacci retracement level. Cont'd

Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: APOG +9.9%; LNDC +1.8%... Trading Down: CBK +10.0%; BBBY -5.7%; WDFC -3.7%... Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to news: Trading Up: LOOK +9.8% (guides Q1 revs to $17.4-$17.7 mln vs $15.03 mln First Call consensus); MW +4.9% (reaffirms Q1 EPS guidance of $0.20-0.24 vs $0.22 consensus); NDN +4.8% (reports Q4 revs of $290.7 mln vs $294.8 mln consensus; reports an increase in same-store sales of 1.5%); HOTT +4.6% (reports March comparable sales of -3.5%); TX +3.7% (comments on recent developments in Venezuela); HOKU +2.9% (subsidiary Hoku Materials announces amendments to polysilicon plant engineering and construction contracts); ZUMZ +2.8% (reports Mar same store sales -3.0%); IUSA +1.3% (guides Q1 EPS; sees Q1 and FY08 revs above consensus); RGR +1.1% (product safety warning and recall notice of SR9 pistol); PAC +1.0% (reports passenger traffic of +9.1% for March); MTG +1.2% (discloses that it has sold $390 mln in debentures as buyers exercise option)... Trading Down: SMCI -10.8% (Q3 EPS of $0.14-0.16 vs $0.19 First Call consensus; revs of $136.5-137 mln vs $139.00 mln First Call consensus); VMED -2.6% (to offer $1 bln convertible senior notes due 2016 to repay a portion of senior credit); EURX -2.2% (receives a notice of allowance for U.S. patent application covering Amrix); RDC -1.8% (says it hasn't gotten any approaches regarding buy of company -- Bloomberg); EDAP -1.0% (announces a research cooperation with Epitarget AS); YHOO -0.11% (MSFT says YHOO-GOOG deal would hurt competition; says deal would consolidate 90% of search ad mkt -- Bloomberg).

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Posted by Jamie at 4/09/2008 10:54:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ



Dummy Trade of the Day - Garmin Ltd. (Public, NASDAQ:GRMN)
AMZN, from the WL breached its trend line on the OR. The OR closed below the trend line so I decided to short as soon as the OR was taken out. My stop was S1, partial at S2 and close at support (blue line). Sweet.

GARM took out yesterday's gap down support on the OR, but I was too busy with AMZN. Luckily it found support at S2 and carved out a beautiful, dummy bear flag with 2 NRIBs (NR7 trigger bar). Partial out on breach of hammer high. Watch S2 for potential reversal. S2 holds on a closing basis. I had a target of $45.00 based on long term support. Close enough.

ACI won't go down. Dummy flag on 5 minute. Support at $51.00 breached but Crude inventories out at 10:30 were surprising on the low side triggering a swift reversal.

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Posted by Jamie at 4/09/2008 09:51:00 PM 11 comments
Labels: 2_Inside, Bearish_Flag, NR7, NRIB, Pivot Point, Trendline



Monday, April 07, 2008Gapper Trade of the Day - Sierra Wireless, Inc. (USA) (Public, NASDAQ:SWIR)
SWIR showed up on my daily scan for 2 IBs (see daily chart below).

This morning it gapped up with a strong opening range. The gap consolidated sideways with a series of NRBs. I entered long as the rising 5 period ema and price were coming close together and down ticks had been replaced by upticks. I took a partial after 3 WRBs at the 38% Fib. extension of the previous day low to the ORH, Trader-X style. Stopped out on the balance shortly after.



DRYS from the WL, gapped up and carved out a low risk B&B at $69.00 on the lower timeframe (3 min.). Since I was anticipating the markets to fade at anytime, I ended up shooting myself in the foot by exiting the entire position as it retraced to the ORH, leaving way too much profit on the table.

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Posted by Jamie at 4/07/2008 06:06:00 PM 6 comments
Labels: Base and Break, Fibonacci, Gapper



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