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发表于 2009-3-20 18:04
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Dummy Trade of the Day - Apple Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL)
 I took a long entry on AAPL on a low risk, narrow, base break midday. It started out very well but reversed abruptly. As price fell below $125.50 volume started to pick up, so I quickly tightened the stop to $125.00 and was taken out. I perused Briefing.com to find a reason for the reversal but everything seemed on the up and up. However, the lack of any new products or big announcements at WWDC seemed to be putting a negative bias on the stock. I waited for the next 15 minute bar to complete itself and decided to short AAPL. I only took a small position, because knowing AAPL, they could be saving the best for last as the presentation was ongoing.
Guess not, the stock continued lower, slowly at first, but on increasing volume. I took a partial as price swooned into my third level PP. After a brief consolidation, it continued down to my fourth PP where I covered the balance and went long. The late day long was a waste of time as AAPL barely bounced into the close.
[url=] [/url]
Posted by Jamie at 6/11/2007 05:15:00 PM 4 comments 
Labels: NRB, Pivot Point, Volume
Pre-Market - Monday June 11th
Futures indicate a flat open for the mkt. Strength in the Chinese and European mkts has helped futures, but is offset from today's lack of M&A activity, per usual for a Monday, and more weakness in the bond mkt. However, there is little conviction on the part of buyers as this week's deluge of economic data, from retail sales to updates on inflation, won't kick off in earnest until Wednesday.
Notable pre-market Calls include Upgrades: JNJ at Credit Suisse; Downgrades: BOT at Credit Suisse, NFLX at JP Morgan, UAUA at Calyon, PENN at Morgan Joseph; Initiations: NMX at Credit Suisse (Neutral), ICE at Credit Suisse (Outperform)... On the Earnings calendar: CYBX, RVI, SORC and TTWO are confirmed to report after the close... The Economic calendar is empty today.
Gapping down on weak guidance: NUE -5.4%... Steel names ticking lower on combination of NUE guidance and DJ report that ThyssenKrupp denied it was in talks with Severstal, US Steel: X-4.8%, STLD -4.1%, AKS -2.9%, CMC -2.4%, GNA -1.9%... Other news: MKTX -5.9% (downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse), PENN -4.7% (table games in Charles Town rejected in weekend vote; several brokers are commenting on news, with stock downgraded at Morgan Joseph), HOG -2.8% (tgt cut to $67 from $69 at UBS), E -1.4% (said its crude-oil production in Nigeria is "near normal" after having been curbed by militant attacks).
Gapping Up on strong earnings/guidance: CRED +8.9%, JOSB +3.6%... M&A: BYBI +23.6% (to be acquired by private equity for $6.50 per share), CUP +8.9% (announces friendly C$6.60/share cash offer by Aluminum of China)... Other news: MDVN +32.9% (announces Dimebon maintains statistically significant benefit on all five efficacy endpoints in Alzheimer's disease), NRMX +10.4% (presents update on Alzhemed), INFN +7.3% (continued momentum following last week's IPO), GERN +6.1% (says research indicates its embryonic stem cell-based therapeutic for spinal cord injury evades direct attack by the human immune system), ADLR +5.3% (co and GSK provide update on Alvimopan program, say complete response to the POI Approvable Letter now targeted for 3Q07), NGSX +4.7% (initiated with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley, initiated with a Positive at Susquehanna), ILMN +4.7% (announces launch of iControlDB), SNSS +4.2% (reports positive data from studies of two anti-cancer agents), SINA +3.8% (announces strategic partnership with Google in the areas of search, advertisement and news).
Courtesy of Briefing.com
[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 6/11/2007 08:40:00 AM 0 comments
Sunday, June 10, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Weekly Update
As anticipated, the 50 DMA provided support and semiconductors paced the way on the heels of NSM's bullish quarter and stock repurchase program. Add this stock to the watchlist. It should be an interesting week as bulls and bears battle for control.
[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 6/10/2007 10:35:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ
Compiling the Watch List
My primary source for compiling the active watch list are stocks that gap up (down) on very high volume, usually be not exclusive, to earnings. These high volume gappers generate momentum and can spawn many follow up trades after consolidating the original gap.
My current watch list includes names such as AAPL, AMZN, CREE, CROX, CWTR, BIDU, CMG, ESRX, FWLT, JCOM, NTRI, RVBD, THE, VRGY, WINN on the gap up side and AMGN, DRIV, NTAP, GROW, SMSI on the gap down side. Since we have been in a bull market for quite some time, many of the gap downs turn into bullish plays shortly after gapping down (eg. AMGN, GROW).
A stock that gaps up or down on 3-4 times average daily volume can be a momentum play for many weeks and months to come. Some of the weaker sectors, however, will not result in as many trades. The semis, for example, have not been able to extend their gap momentum beyond a few days or weeks at most - VSEA, LLTC.
Here is an example using CMG which I traded as a gapper on the day it gapped up and have since traded two more times on NR base breaks as highlighted on the daily chart below. If CMG recaptures its PP at $85.00 it could setup another long daytrade. A break of $82.50 on weakness could setup a short, depending on market conditions.
I look at the daily and 15 minute timeframes of all my watch list stocks every night and set alerts as required if they are well positioned to move.
The rest of my watch list comes from frequent EOD scanning. For long candidates, I look for stocks trading above the 10, 50 and 200 DMAs combined. From a 4 month view, I look for stocks that are basing and ready to break, ideally from NR bars. I'm not interested in perusing lists of more than 100 stocks each for the NASDAQ and the NYSE, so I add filters for volume and momentum (ADX) to reduce the size of the lists as required.
During pre-market, I monitor the watchlist stocks for movement in the direction of the base and break pattern and I look for new gappers trading on heavy pre-market volume.
[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 6/10/2007 08:04:00 PM 6 comments
Labels: Gapper, NRB, Watchlist
Thursday, June 07, 2007NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bears Own It
 The bears owned the session from start to finish except for a minor attempt at a bounce between 2 and 3 p.m. EST. It looks like the biggest three day decline since March. On the NYSE declining issues outnumbered advancers by a whopping 10.3 to 1. The NASDAQ was not nearly as severe with a ratio of 3.5:1.00. Extreme readings usually foreshadow market turns, however, the NAZ reading does not qualify as extreme.
Market Internals:
The Dow decreased 1.48% closing at 13267, the Nasdaq was down 1.77% to finish at 2541, and the S&P was down 1.76% to finish at 1491. Leading sectors included: Photo Products +0.77%, Healthcare Services +0.46%, Drug Retail +0.15%, Health Care Suppliers +0.04%, Airport Services +n/a. Lagging sectors included: Industrial REITS -4.5%, Special Consumer Services -4.3%, Homebuilding -4.2%, Construction and Engineering --3.9%, Office REITS -3.8%. Today's movement came from lower than avg volume on the NYSE and higher than avg on the Nasdaq (NYSE 1480, vs. 1513 avg, Nasdaq 2444, vs. 2022 avg), with decliners outpacing advancers (NYSE 271/3013, Nasdaq 668/2370) with new lows outpacing new highs (NYSE 40/104; Nasdaq 80/86).
In addition to higher volume, we closed on the lows of the session (thanks to Pimco's Bill Gross late day bearish comments). The technical damage is a broken trendline, however, we should get some sort of technical bounce at the 50 DMA level. I would expect that we will retest the trendline from the underside in the very near term.
The McClellan oscillator is approaching oversold, however, here again extreme readings seem to occur more frequently in the oversold zone than the overbought as depicted in the chart above .
Trade Balance tomorrow at 8:30
Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: NSM +10.0%; CAE +6.4%; HRLY +3.4%; GENT +1.1%; NMGC +1.0%... Trading Down: QSII -1.5%... Companies moving in reaction to news: Trading Up: YMI +5.6% (Cleared to Initiate Clinical trial of Nimotuzumab in Children with inoperable recurrent Brain Cancer); QCOM +1.7% (Broadcom wins bid to block mobile phones with Qualcomm chips, order doesn't affect types of phone imported before June 7th- Bloomberg); ACTL +1.3% (reaffirms Q2 revs of flat to plus of minus 2%; co's stock options review is still ongoing); BRCM +1.3% (wins ITC order barring certain Qualcomm baseband chips and cellular phones from importation into the U.S.); UNH +1.3% (and Adventist Midwest Health reach new multi-year agreement); BRS +1.2% (announces pricing of 7 1/2% $300 mln senior notes due 2017); LNC +1.1% (to explore strategic options for media business)... Trading Down: OPWV -4.1% (Harbinger clarifies tender offer price and announces an extension of its tender offer for Openwave).
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Posted by Jamie at 6/07/2007 08:58:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: NASDAQ
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