一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Sunday, August 20, 2006Watch List - AKAM, CMCSK, INFA, NVEC
NASDAQ Stocks trading above their 200 MA - well positioned to move higher.


After gapping up on earnings, AKAM has tested two levels of support and looks well positioned to begin the next leg up.

CMCSK has been consolidating its gap up for most of the month of August. It looks like it could break higher any time soon.

INFA would be nice on an intraday pullback to $14.00 but it may just push higher.

I caught a bit of the NVEC move Friday afternoon on an intraday scan. I'd like to see it pullback to $26.30 so I can get back in. This is a momentum play and should be good for more after some consolidation. I will be watching it closely going foward.
Other Bullish Watch List Stocks - RIMM, GENZ, NVDA. I'm also adding BRCM which, although not trading above its 200 MA, has made a nice rounded bottom and is consolidating recent gains.






[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/20/2006 09:49:00 PM 1 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture


After opening weak on DELL's earnings, the NASDAQ managed to close higher than Thursday by 6 points. Notwithstanding the overall market strength in the face of bellwether weakness, Friday's options expiration session was a real snooze fest and most stocks on my watch list were not tradable.
If we can consolidate a bit more early in the week, that will leave the door open for further upside in the second half of the week (not a prediction, just wishful thinking).


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/20/2006 09:29:00 PM 0 comments




Thursday, August 17, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Sweet, but let me catch my breath!
The NASDAQ McClellan oscillator is signaling that we're overbought. Ya think?

I agree with Trader Mike, we need to consolidate these gains. Friday is options expiration, so unless I see something really compelling in the pre-market, I will probably not trade tomorrow.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/17/2006 09:27:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - Research In Motion NASDAQ (RIMM)

No, this is not a repeat of yesterday, although the entry is exactly the same. Long RIMM on a break of the pre-market high. Notice how the pre-market high was exactly $79.00 and then price came back in to fill the entire gap before the market opened. At 9:30 price took off on huge volume taking out $79.00 on the first wide range bar. The second bar (doji) observed $79.00 (pre-market resistance) as support. Shortly after 10:00, I moved my stop just 10 cents below break-even. This was a very orderly trade and easy to manage. Notice how there is hardly no overlap of the real bodies of the candlesticks as price moves up. Around 1:00, RIMM started consolidating and formed a small series of lower highs. This was a cue to tighten my stop to $80.70.

In the afternoon, price came back in to test the $79.00 pivot point. Notice how the low of both the 2:30 and the 2:45 candlestick is exactly $79.00. Steve Nison calls this a tweezer bottom candlestick reversal pattern. Although rare, I've found it to be very reliable. So, I went long as price took out the close of the second tweezer stick and exited the position at the end of the session.

AMD gapped up on a Citigroup upgrade. The first bar closed on its high and as soon as the second bar showed continuation, I went long. I took my exit shortly after AMD made a lower high. This is a classic Trader-X type trade. It was also orderly and easy to manage.

I also traded LLTC from last nights's watch list as soon as price took out yesterday's high. A little choppy but profitable just the same. However, the target was not reached. PAYX was invalidated on the open because it gapped down.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/17/2006 07:13:00 PM 2 comments




Wednesday, August 16, 2006Watch List - LLTC, PAYX
We've had three successive days of gains on the NASDAQ. From Friday's close to today's close we've racked up close to 100 points and we're running into resistance. Consequently, tomorrow will be cautious trading for me.



Long PAYX if it opens at, or just above today's close. Support is $35.40 on the 15 minute timeframe. This is a continuation play out of a rounded base. The preliminary target is the 50 MA on the daily timeframe, followed by $37.00.

Similar setup with LLTC. Look for it to open at or just above today's close. Target is $34.00, followed by the 200 MA on the daily timeframe.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/16/2006 10:49:00 PM 3 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture - Groundhog Day
Today was a repeat of yesterday. The NAZ gapped up, carved out a wide range bar, closed on its highs on higher volume. The SOX is pacing the way so it must be real. Watch pivot point resistance tomorrow.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/16/2006 08:10:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - Research in Motion NASDAQ (RIMM)
As per last night's watch list, RIMM was setting up as a classic three day consolidation breakout after digesting last Thursday's bullish wide range bar. The criteria I look for in this type of setup is a narrow range consolidation in the upper price range of the preceding bullish bar on lower volume. I also look for the stock to close on its highs on the third or last day of the consolidation period. RIMM met all of my criteria.

RIMM traded up in pre-market, but the gap was not excessive so I felt comfortable setting a buy stop order above the pre-market high. I booked 50% of my profit as price stalled at $77.00 and exited the balance into the close.

Other Watch List Stocks - ADSK was invalidated because the pre-market price was excessive. NDAQ did not trigger on the open as price retreated. KLAC gapped down, however I was able to initiate a long position in KLAC on the third 15 minute stick. My rationale was that although it opened lower, the first bars were bullish in that there was no overlap of the real bodies despite the long upper shadows. Price was now trading above yesterday's high, so when the third bar started trading above the second bar's close , I went long and held through to the end of the session.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/16/2006 07:29:00 PM 2 comments




Pre-Market - ADSK Upgrade
Jefferies upgrades Autodesk (ADSK 33.83) to Buy from Hold and $40 tgt from $34, as they think consensus estimates have limited downside and that shares have likely seen a valuation bottom

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/16/2006 07:25:00 AM 0 comments




Tuesday, August 15, 2006Watch List - Poised to Breakout - RIMM, NDAQ, KLAC, ADSK

Click on charts to enlarge.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/15/2006 11:48:00 PM 0 comments




AKAM vs. GOOG


Interesting piece on a potential AKAM / GOOG clash at Seeking Alpha.

As a provider of content distribution to big media players, Akamai fits this vision well. They provide the technical infrastructure to ensure high-quality broadband video anywhere in the world, but they are transparent to the consumer. The content owners retain control of the presentation and monetization of the product.

We are still investors in Akamai, but it appears that one of our core reasons has now become invalid.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/15/2006 11:12:00 PM 0 comments




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hefeiddd

Sunday, August 20, 2006Watch List - AKAM, CMCSK, INFA, NVEC
NASDAQ Stocks trading above their 200 MA - well positioned to move higher.


After gapping up on earnings, AKAM has tested two levels of support and looks well positioned to begin the next leg up.

CMCSK has been consolidating its gap up for most of the month of August. It looks like it could break higher any time soon.

INFA would be nice on an intraday pullback to $14.00 but it may just push higher.

I caught a bit of the NVEC move Friday afternoon on an intraday scan. I'd like to see it pullback to $26.30 so I can get back in. This is a momentum play and should be good for more after some consolidation. I will be watching it closely going foward.
Other Bullish Watch List Stocks - RIMM, GENZ, NVDA. I'm also adding BRCM which, although not trading above its 200 MA, has made a nice rounded bottom and is consolidating recent gains.






[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/20/2006 09:49:00 PM 1 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture


After opening weak on DELL's earnings, the NASDAQ managed to close higher than Thursday by 6 points. Notwithstanding the overall market strength in the face of bellwether weakness, Friday's options expiration session was a real snooze fest and most stocks on my watch list were not tradable.
If we can consolidate a bit more early in the week, that will leave the door open for further upside in the second half of the week (not a prediction, just wishful thinking).


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/20/2006 09:29:00 PM 0 comments




Thursday, August 17, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Sweet, but let me catch my breath!
The NASDAQ McClellan oscillator is signaling that we're overbought. Ya think?

I agreeconsolidate these gains. Friday is options expiration, so unless I see something really compelling in the pre-market, I will probably not trade tomorrow.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/17/2006 09:27:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - Research In Motion NASDAQ (RIMM)

No, this is not a repeat of yesterday, although the entry is exactly the same. Long RIMM on a break of the pre-market high. Notice how the pre-market high was exactly $79.00 and then price came back in to fill the entire gap before the market opened. At 9:30 price took off on huge volume taking out $79.00 on the first wide range bar. The second bar (doji) observed $79.00 (pre-market resistance) as support. Shortly after 10:00, I moved my stop just 10 cents below break-even. This was a very orderly trade and easy to manage. Notice how there is hardly no overlap of the real bodies of the candlesticks as price moves up. Around 1:00, RIMM started consolidating and formed a small series of lower highs. This was a cue to tighten my stop to $80.70.

In the afternoon, price came back in to test the $79.00 pivot point. Notice how the low of both the 2:30 and the 2:45 candlestick is exactly $79.00. Steve Nison calls this a tweezer bottom candlestick reversal pattern. Although rare, I've found it to be very reliable. So, I went long as price took out the close of the second tweezer stick and exited the position at the end of the session.

AMD gapped up on a Citigroup upgrade. The first bar closed on its high and as soon as the second bar showed continuation, I went long. I took my exit shortly after AMD made a lower high. This is a trade. It was also orderly and easy to manage.

I also traded LLTC from last nights's watch list as soon as price took out yesterday's high. A little choppy but profitable just the same. However, the target was not reached. PAYX was invalidated on the open because it gapped down.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/17/2006 07:13:00 PM 2 comments




Wednesday, August 16, 2006Watch List - LLTC, PAYX
We've had three successive days of gains on the NASDAQ. From Friday's close to today's close we've racked up close to 100 points and we're running into resistance. Consequently, tomorrow will be cautious trading for me.



Long PAYX if it opens at, or just above today's close. Support is $35.40 on the 15 minute timeframe. This is a continuation play out of a rounded base. The preliminary target is the 50 MA on the daily timeframe, followed by $37.00.

Similar setup with LLTC. Look for it to open at or just above today's close. Target is $34.00, followed by the 200 MA on the daily timeframe.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/16/2006 10:49:00 PM 3 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture - Groundhog Day
Today was a repeat of yesterday. The NAZ gapped up, carved out a wide range bar, closed on its highs on higher volume. The SOX is pacing the way so it must be real. Watch pivot point resistance tomorrow.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/16/2006 08:10:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - Research in Motion NASDAQ (RIMM)
As per last night's watch list, RIMM was setting up as a classic three day consolidation breakout after digesting last Thursday's bullish wide range bar. The criteria I look for in this type of setup is a narrow range consolidation in the upper price range of the preceding bullish bar on lower volume. I also look for the stock to close on its highs on the third or last day of the consolidation period. RIMM met all of my criteria.

RIMM traded up in pre-market, but the gap was not excessive so I felt comfortable setting a buy stop order above the pre-market high. I booked 50% of my profit as price stalled at $77.00 and exited the balance into the close.

Other Watch List Stocks - ADSK was invalidated because the pre-market price was excessive. NDAQ did not trigger on the open as price retreated. KLAC gapped down, however I was able to initiate a long position in KLAC on the third 15 minute stick. My rationale was that although it opened lower, the first bars were bullish in that there was no overlap of the real bodies despite the long upper shadows. Price was now trading above yesterday's high, so when the third bar started trading above the second bar's close , I went long and held through to the end of the session.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/16/2006 07:29:00 PM 2 comments




Pre-Market - ADSK Upgrade
Jefferies upgrades Autodesk (ADSK 33.83) to Buy from Hold and $40 tgt from $34, as they think consensus estimates have limited downside and that shares have likely seen a valuation bottom

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/16/2006 07:25:00 AM 0 comments




Tuesday, August 15, 2006Watch List - Poised to Breakout - RIMM, NDAQ, KLAC, ADSK

Click on charts to enlarge.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/15/2006 11:48:00 PM 0 comments









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hefeiddd

Tuesday, August 15, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - A Milestone for the Bulls


As noted in last night's post, the markets are fixated on inflation. Today's core PPI data came in lower than consensus and the markets interpreted this as a signal that rate hikes are over for the balance of the year. The bulls were out in full force in pre-market and the NAZ gapped up over 20 pts. on the open. By the end of the session it had gained 46 points, closing on its highs and carving out a wide range bar, just 4 pts. shy of the August high. In so doing, it left the 50 MA, 2100 pivot and a broken trendline in its dust. Eureka for the bulls!

The SOX, GHA, and GIN all managed to recapture their 50 MAs. The NDX 100 heatmap is virtually all green with the big winners - AMLN (10%), NVDA (9.6%), JNPR? (8.4%) , and AKAM (7.3%).

Hopefully tomorrow's CPI data will confirm the PPI. Not to get overly optimistic, if we can hold 2100 on a closing basis, we will maintain the 50 MA and still be in relatively good shape. Resistance going into tomorrow is the August high 2119.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/15/2006 08:52:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - Akamai Technologies Inc.NASDAQ (AKAM) Again
I placed a few pre-market limit orders when the PPI data was released just as I was dashing off to work. I was fortunate to get the one fill (RBAK) because the bulls were hungry this morning. So after the open, I had to find a good setup. AKAM had been weak yesterday afternoon but it managed to gap up on the open. The first bar opened on its high and formed a hammer like red stick on the 15 minute timeframe. The next bar closed lower. The third bar tested support but closed higher than the second bar. I went long as soon as the forth bar showed me that it wanted to continue higher. I booked a 50% profit when price stalled at resistance. I kept a tight stop just under the 10 period EMA and moved it up as the day wore on. My target was $40.00 as this appeared to be a pivot point on the daily view. I exited the balance of the position at $39.95 near the end of the session. Needless to say, AKAM is my favorite stock these days.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/15/2006 07:55:00 PM 0 comments




Redback Networks Inc. NASDAQ (RBAK) - Follow-up
Following this morning's upgrade, I placed a pre-market buy limit order for RBAK at $17.00 before heading off to work. Minutes after the open I was able to confirm my fill and immediately booked 50% of my profit at $18.45. I placed a stop on the balance at $17.75 and exited the balance of the position into the close.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/15/2006 07:35:00 PM 0 comments




Pre-Market - RBAK Upgrade
RBC Capital Markets upgrades RBAK from sector perform to Outperform

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/15/2006 08:44:00 AM 0 comments




Monday, August 14, 2006Watch List - CKFR, TTWO, RBAK
CKFR looks ready for some further downside action. Careful of supports at $35 and $34.


TTWO looks poised to breakout.


RBAK broke out this morning and pulled back (after kissing the 50 MA) in an orderly fashion this afternoon. Look for a potential reversal and a retest of today's highs.



Other Watch List Names
CTXS - Look for continuation tomorrow.
RIMM - Consolidating recent gains but closed on its lows so we wait.
AKAM - Still consolidating but today it carved out a lower high and a higher low.
GENZ - Lots of support at $66.00 but can it hold?
Click on charts to enlarge.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/14/2006 10:53:00 PM 2 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture
Not even a ceasefire and lower oil could get this market to rally for more than a few hours. The market seems to be almost entirely focused on inflation. Tomorrow's core PPI and Wednesday's CPI will get more attention than geopolitical events, but its doubtful that much has changed since the last time round. Although most major tech sectors managed to hang on to early session gains, the afternoon swoon was not very inspiring for bulls.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/14/2006 08:55:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - Akamai Technologies Inc. NASDAQ (AKAM)
Long on the gap fill. I had to exit when I noticed that AKAM was starting to make lower highs. I noticed that when we had a similar strong open last week, that many stocks that made lower highs on the second rally ended the session in the red, so I decided to fade AKAM and the strategy worked.

My only other trade was long CTXS shortly after the 11:00 reversal. Good for $0.70.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/14/2006 08:01:00 PM 0 comments




Sunday, August 13, 2006Watch List - NEW, ILMN, CTXS
NEW is always problematic because the stock chart looks different depending where you look. For example, I didn't post the stockchart version because it doesn't look symetrical like this one does, despite the same closing price. In the above chart NEW is testing bullish gap support and could bounce.

ILMN is testing the top of its bullish gap support.


CTXS - technical bounce from notable support. Target $30.00.

Still Bullish - AKAM (once it finds support), RIMM
Still Bearish - LRCX

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/13/2006 09:20:00 PM 0 comments




Friday, August 11, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Weak Bias
The NASDAQ McClellan oscillator is fairly neutral but looks poised for more selling.


The NASDAQ carved out an inside day on lower than average volume, typical of a summer Friday. Although we held the lower pivot point on a closing basis once again, the market feels very bearish. A quick look at the weekly chart puts the recent trading range into perspective and points to the possibility of a break lower in the very near term. The options backdating issue is turning into an epidemic and could push the NASDAQ down in the gutter if things don't get resolved quickly enough.





[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/11/2006 08:41:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - Akamai Technologies Inc. NASDAQ (AKAM)
I had no watch list today, so I was stuck with the usual suspects. After a series of lower highs, I decided to go with the flow and short AKAM. As you can see from the chart, once it broke support, it formed a steep curve on an uptick in volume and had an orderly fall all the way to $37. 00. Good for 1+ pts.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/11/2006 08:21:00 PM 11 comments




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hefeiddd

Thursday, August 10, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture


After a minor breach on the open, the 205o pivot point held as support and the market managed to take back 11.5 points. No doubt, terrorist headlines kept some traders on the sidelines and the session felt like a low volume, NR, doldrum type of day. It's difficult to gauge where we might go from here, so I will be trading light until direction becomes a little more clearly defined.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/10/2006 10:26:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - Research In Motion NASDAQ (RIMM)
I'm glad I had RIMM on last night's watch list, otherwise I might have missed this move altogether. I know I called it wrong, but at least it was on the radar. RIMM got a boost from Amtech this morning on raised estimates in anticipation of a strong new handset line-up. Having missed the actual breakout, I waited to a low risk entry. I locked in 50% profit after 2 pts. as price approached my resistance area and I managed to hold the rest into the close. This was my only trade today as everything else in front of me was NR.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/10/2006 10:09:00 PM 0 comments




Massey Energy Company NYSE (MEE)
MEE has fallen out of its bearish H&S top and, on a measured move basis, has another 10 points of downside left. However, on July 28th it capitulated and has since tried to rally. It may be forming a bullish flag pattern and, if successful, could attempt to retest its bearish gap resistance just above. If you are currently breaking even on the trade, you need a close below $25.oo to solidify your short and see a resumption of the downtrend. The markets appear very weak at this point so you may get a resolution in your favor as early as tomorrow.

Good luck!

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/10/2006 12:06:00 AM 2 comments




Wednesday, August 09, 2006Watch List - RIMM, SLAB, AKAM
RIMM has been bullish all week, but a gravestone doji usually kills a rally and sets up a short.

SLAB looks like it may be forming a bullish flag pattern. However, today's doji stick signals indecision, so we'll wait for confirmation.

Notwithstanding a market meltdown, AKAM looks well poistioned to bounce off of its primary pivot point at $37.77. Notice how perfectly the pivot and 10 day EMA line up.

I'm seeing a lot more short setups than long tonight. In fact, most bears probably had a much more profitable trading day than I did. That LRCX short that I've posted a few times in recent weeks looks very ripe right about now.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/09/2006 10:30:00 PM 3 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture - A Lower High Signals Weakness
After a strong open, the market peaked at noon and sold off in the second half of the day leaving the session unchanged. In so doing, it carved out a lower high which should serve as an early warning sign that things could get bearish again. A close below the lower pivot point will confirm the weak bias.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/09/2006 09:16:00 PM 0 comments




Trader Mike Reviews John Carter's Mastering the Trade
Read Trader Mike's review of the book and companion DVD series.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/09/2006 09:04:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - Akamai Technologies Inc. NASDAQ (AKAM)
Despite the bullish open, the market had very little momentum, so the best trading opportunities were on pullbacks to support. AKAM gapped up slightly on the open and pulled back towards yesterday's low, made a higher low and reversed. This my my cue to get long for a test of recent resistance. I sold into strength at $39.50.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/09/2006 08:54:00 PM 0 comments




Failed Breakout - NVIDIA Corporation NASDAQ (NVDA)
As per this morning's watch list, I traded NVDA on the open as a breakout play with a buy stop order above the pre-market high. Unfornuately, the breakout failed almost immediately so I exited the position right away. I eventually managed to make 50 cents on it as it reversed off its morning lows and headed for a retest of $25.00.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/09/2006 08:18:00 PM 2 comments




Watch List - NVDA

NVDA - 15 Min. View

I'm watching NVDA this morning for a potential breakout of $25.00 resistance ahead of earnings scheduled for Thursday AH.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/09/2006 07:47:00 AM 2 comments




Google Inc. NASDAQ (GOOG) - A Trendline Bounce?
GOOG has successfully tested its long-term trendline and has managed to hold it bullish gap support ($362.50) on the last two swoons. However, until it can recapture its 200 day MA, it is vulnerable to further weakness.

A look at the 60 minute view below, shows that GOOG is currently trading just above $380 (prior minor resistance) and appears to be forming a bullish flag. A successful break of the flag pattern could propel price towards the next resistance level of $390.




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/09/2006 07:23:00 AM 0 comments




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hefeiddd

Thursday, August 10, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture


After a minor breach on the open, the 205o pivot point held as support and the market managed to take back 11.5 points. No doubt, terrorist headlines kept some traders on the sidelines and the session felt like a low volume, NR, doldrum type of day. It's difficult to gauge where we might go from here, so I will be trading light until direction becomes a little more clearly defined.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/10/2006 10:26:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - Research In Motion NASDAQ (RIMM)
I'm glad I had RIMM on last night's watch list, otherwise I might have missed this move altogether. I know I called it wrong, but at least it was on the radar. RIMM got a boost from Amtech this morning on raised estimates in anticipation of a strong new handset line-up. Having missed the actual breakout, I waited to a low risk entry. I locked in 50% profit after 2 pts. as price approached my resistance area and I managed to hold the rest into the close. This was my only trade today as everything else in front of me was NR.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/10/2006 10:09:00 PM 0 comments




Massey Energy Company NYSE (MEE)
MEE has fallen out of its bearish H&S top and, on a measured move basis, has another 10 points of downside left. However, on July 28th it capitulated and has since tried to rally. It may be forming a bullish flag pattern and, if successful, could attempt to retest its bearish gap resistance just above. If you are currently breaking even on the trade, you need a close below $25.oo to solidify your short and see a resumption of the downtrend. The markets appear very weak at this point so you may get a resolution in your favor as early as tomorrow.

Good luck!

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/10/2006 12:06:00 AM 2 comments




Wednesday, August 09, 2006Watch List - RIMM, SLAB, AKAM
RIMM has been bullish all week, but a gravestone doji usually kills a rally and sets up a short.

SLAB looks like it may be forming a bullish flag pattern. However, today's doji stick signals indecision, so we'll wait for confirmation.

Notwithstanding a market meltdown, AKAM looks well poistioned to bounce off of its primary pivot point at $37.77. Notice how perfectly the pivot and 10 day EMA line up.

I'm seeing a lot more short setups than long tonight. In fact, most bears probably had a much more profitable trading day than I did. That LRCX short that I've posted a few times in recent weeks looks very ripe right about now.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/09/2006 10:30:00 PM 3 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture - A Lower High Signals Weakness
After a strong open, the market peaked at noon and sold off in the second half of the day leaving the session unchanged. In so doing, it carved out a lower high which should serve as an early warning sign that things could get bearish again. A close below the lower pivot point will confirm the

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/09/2006 09:04:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - Akamai Technologies Inc. NASDAQ (AKAM)
Despite the bullish open, the market had very little momentum, so the best trading opportunities were on pullbacks to support. AKAM gapped up slightly on the open and pulled back towards yesterday's low, made a higher low and reversed. This my my cue to get long for a test of recent resistance. I sold into strength at $39.50.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/09/2006 08:54:00 PM 0 comments




Failed Breakout - NVIDIA Corporation NASDAQ (NVDA)
As per this morning's watch list, I traded NVDA on the open as a breakout play with a buy stop order above the pre-market high. Unfornuately, the breakout failed almost immediately so I exited the position right away. I eventually managed to make 50 cents on it as it reversed off its morning lows and headed for a retest of $25.00.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/09/2006 08:18:00 PM 2 comments




Watch List - NVDA

NVDA - 15 Min. View

I'm watching NVDA this morning for a potential breakout of $25.00 resistance ahead of earnings scheduled for Thursday AH.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/09/2006 07:47:00 AM 2 comments




Google Inc. NASDAQ (GOOG) - A Trendline Bounce?
GOOG has successfully tested its long-term trendline and has managed to hold it bullish gap support ($362.50) on the last two swoons. However, until it can recapture its 200 day MA, it is vulnerable to further weakness.

A look at the 60 minute view below, shows that GOOG is currently trading just above $380 (prior minor resistance) and appears to be forming a bullish flag. A successful break of the flag pattern could propel price towards the next resistance level of $390.




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 8/09/2006 07:23:00 AM 0 comments




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hefeiddd

Tuesday, August 08, 2006Trade of the Day - Research In Motion NASDAQ (RIMM)
As per last night's watch list, I took a long position in RIMM as a continuation play following yesterday's late day trendline retest. I waited for the third bar to trade above the reversal bar's close before entering the trade. A modest gain.

I also entered a long in NVDA on a break of the first 15 min. high. After gapping up on the open, I was hoping for a retest of $25.00, but it never got past $24.85. Another modest gainer.

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Posted by Jamie at 8/08/2006 08:10:00 PM 2 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture
An extremely slow day leading into the Fed policy announcement which was, after all this waiting, an anti climax. The pause itself was already priced in and the modest changes or lack of clarity to the accompanying policy statement left the markets in an unsettled state. So they did a quick head fake and then sold-off. The NASDAQ closed just 8 points shy of its lower pivot point with most major tech sectors closing in the red, the lone exception being internets.

After hours, CSCO beat by $0.02 on higher revenues and better margins and issued slightly higher guidance. NDX futures are up 7 points in AH trade. YHOO is also up in AH on news of a new search ad ranking system.

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Posted by Jamie at 8/08/2006 07:36:00 PM 0 comments




Blogger Problems Again :(
I can't post any images at the moment so I will try again later tonight.

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Posted by Jamie at 8/08/2006 07:29:00 PM 0 comments




Scanning for Potential Long Candidates
The first scan I run when looking for potential long candidates is  criteria is NASDAQ stocks priced between $20 -$100, trading above their 10, 20, and 50 MAs with an average daily volume of at least 1M shares. The second scan I run is names that pop up on both lists. As you have probably already guessed, tonight's scans did not result in a large number of matches. However, there are a few noteworthy ones to add to tomorrow's watchlist.


RIMM looks like a potential double bottom breakout candidate. It has positive divergence in the RSI and MACD indicators. More volume could move prices up above $67.50.


PAAS has had a nice run here and would be a good long setup on a pullback to $20.

Other names still well positioned to move higher: AKAM, NVDA, GENZ.

N.B. - A free seven day trial to Trade-Ideas Pro is available through the affiliate program by scrolling down the right hand side bar of this blog.

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Posted by Jamie at 8/08/2006 07:22:00 AM 2 comments




Monday, August 07, 2006Blogger Problems Again
I can't seem to load any images at the moment so I will try posting the watch list in the morning.

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Posted by Jamie at 8/07/2006 11:43:00 PM 0 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture - Narrow Range Trading Leading into the Fed
A narrow range day on decisively lower volume ahead of tomorrow's Fed policy statement. The NAZ shed 12.5 points and all major tech sectors ended the session in the red. I expect we'll see a lot more days like today as earnings wind down and we head into the real dog days of August, which is traditionally a very lackluster trading month.

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Posted by Jamie at 8/07/2006 08:46:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - F5 Networks Inc. NASDAQ: (FFIV)
I've been wanting to short FFIV for quite some time. Today it gapped down on the open and at 10:00 started consolidating. During the lengthy consolidation each 15 minute bar made a lower high, so I decided to short on the 5th 15 minute bar for a low risk entry. My stop was just above the high of the second 15 min. bar. I covered 50% as price started to bounce off of the $43.00 level. I held the balance until near the end of the session as the market started to push up from its afternoon lows.

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Posted by Jamie at 8/07/2006 08:21:00 PM 0 comments




Watch List - LRCX, OSIP, CEPH, ILMN
LRCX - Just a reminder!

OSIP is playing hard to get. I'll be watching it closely tomorrow to see if this triangle on the 15 minute view can resolve itself.

Click on charts for larger views and chart notes.



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Posted by Jamie at 8/07/2006 12:19:00 AM 0 comments




Sunday, August 06, 2006Pivot Point Analysis
Pivot point analysis was first made popular by the floor traders of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) decades ago.
Its widespread use today makes it the number choice by Wall St. floor traders to gauge potential pivotal price levels.

This trading technique’s basic model calculates two levels of support and resistance and one primary pivot point.
The model is designed to work most effectively on high volume trading instruments with a wide daily range.

Basic Pivot Formula

P = (H + L + C) / 3
R1 = (P x 2) - L
S1 = (P x 2) - H
S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
R2 = P + (R1 - S1)

Where P= pivot point; H = high of the day; L = low of the day; C = close; R = resistance; and S= support.

Here is an example using Thursday’s data to manage Friday’s trade for Akamai Technologies Inc. NASDAQ (AKAM):

Symbol	Date	High	Low	Close
AKAM	3-Aug-06	40.46	37.81	40.29

R2	R1	P	S1	S2
42.17	41.23	39.52	38.58	36.87

I have created a simple Excel file to update these on daily basis which involves entering the H, L, and C for each of my watch list stocks on any given day. When I plot the points on my charts, I use the closest visual P, S, and R levels. These are sometimes off by 10-20 cents from the calculated figures.

So enough with the theory, how do we apply this to intraday trading?

I find that these work very well in trading ranges and during tight consolidations within trending moves.

After closing at a multi-year high on Monday, AKAM consolidated its gains for two and half days before breaking out again Thursday afternoon and closing near its highs.
This type of momentum is usually followed by more gains on the next open.
In order to get an indication of how high we can expect AKAM to trade the next morning, we plot our pivot points on the chart Thursday night based on Thursday’s H, L and C.
As you can see from the chart below, 4 of the 5 pivot points came into play on Friday.
R2 was just above the high off of the open.
The break of R1 indicated that the pullback would be more than just a minor consolidation and meant that the position had to be sold and a potential short taken by aggressive traders. P was a good place to cover at least 50% of the short position. The doji with the long lower shadow at S1 was good place to cover the balance and initiate a long position as it also coincided with the 7 day trendline.

For longer-term traders and investors, pivot points can also be determined visually without a calculator. A pivot point is a point from which price turns and changes direction. If a specific price repeatedly causes a change in direction it becomes a primary pivot point and should be monitored closely by swing and position traders. Here is an example with NVDA, whose primary pivot point of $25.00 is in play (blue arrows are pivots).






Try the pivot point formula on highly liquid stocks with a minimum price of $20.00 and see if it can help guide you through the intraday price movements.
Of course it makes sense to practice this approach before committing actual capital to it.
On a personal level, pivot trading has added discipline and confidence to my trading and has eliminated many costly errors.

This post was created in response to a query from student trader Thomas. I know this only answers part of your question Thomas, but it’s a start. In the next chapter I will explain how I find and trade breakout points.


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Posted by Jamie at 8/06/2006 09:40:00 PM 2 comments




Friday, August 04, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture - Jobs Data Result in a Failed Breakout
The jobs data released at 8:30 this morning were below estimates and the pre-market action was very bullish. The Qs rallied into resistance of the 50 MA in pre-market, paused and consolidated in an orderly fashion. When the market opened they took out the pre-market high at 9:44 and things were looking great. At 9:45, they reversed sharply. Within minutes, it was clear that we had a failed breakout and it was time to exit all longs. Breakout failures can be brutal because they almost always result in steep pullbacks. A real breakout always rallies into the 10:00 reversal time, so when the second 15 minute bar of the Qs starts to penetrate the first 15 minute bar by more the 25%, its time to tighten the stops.

My theory is that the rally we had yesterday afternoon was in anticipation of the jobs data, and today's failure was a fade the news type scenario. However, by the end of the session, we suffered little technical damage. Volume was in line with recent sessions and we're still hanging on to the 20 day EMA. Going into next week, our pivot points are still intact - 2100 and 2050, with intermediate support at 2075.

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Posted by Jamie at 8/04/2006 10:08:00 PM 0 comments




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Thursday, August 03, 2006Watch List - BRCM, SNDK, ADSK

If the jobs data is bullish for the market, any of these setups could break or gap up tomorrow.

Click on charts for larger views and chart notes.

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Posted by Jamie at 8/03/2006 11:30:00 PM 0 comments




Apple Computer Inc. NASDAQ (AAPL) - 8-K Filing
Oh what a kill joy - those nasty FS restatements. AAPL trades down 5% in AH.

Apple Computer Announces Update Regarding Stock Option Grants (69.59 +1.43) -Update : Co previously announced, an internal investigation discovered irregularities related to the issuance of certain stock option grants made between 1997 and 2001. A special committee of Apple's outside directors has hired independent counsel to perform an investigation, and the Co has informed the SEC. As a result of the ongoing investigation, the Company will delay the filing of its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended July 1, 2006. Although the investigation is ongoing, the Co has discovered additional evidence of irregularities. In light of this, management has concluded, and the audit committee of the board of directors agrees, that the Co will likely need to restate its historical financial statements to record non-cash charges for compensation expense relating to past stock option grants. The Co has not determined the amount of such charges, the resulting tax and accounting impact, or which periods may require restatement. Accordingly, the Co today filed a Form 8-K stating that the financial statements and all earnings and press releases and similar communications issued by the Co relating to periods commencing on September 29, 2002 should therefore not be relied upon. Courtesy of Briefing.com


We touched a clearly defined pivot point at $70.00 today.




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Posted by Jamie at 8/03/2006 09:52:00 PM 0 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture
After gapping lower on disappointing earnings, the market quickly reversed. From the low to the high of the day, the NAZ picked up 40 points, closing up 13.5 points on the day and kissing 2100 in late day trade. All major tech sectors ended the day in the green with internets taking the lead (GOOG up 2%). Today's NDX winners were NVDA, CHRW, and EBAY. EBAY?

This market clearly wants to breakout of its downtrend and tomorrow's jobs data will set the tone for the day's trade at 8:30 a.m. EST.

Good Trading!

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Posted by Jamie at 8/03/2006 08:40:00 PM 4 comments




Trade of the Day - Akamai Technologies Inc. NASDAQ (AKAM)

Click on charts for larger views.

It seems that AKAM is the trade of the day quite often lately. When I saw that it gapped down to my pivot line (thick blue line) on the open, I decided to watch it carefully to make sure the pivot would hold given this morning's weak market condition. Shortly after the 10:00 reversal time, I entered a long position. Shortly after lunch, AKAM took out its midday consolidation high on an uptick in volume and took off on a very steep bullish curve ignoring resistance to close at a new multi-year high. Notice how the 10, 20 and 50 MAs converged during lunch. When the MAs start to seperate the big move begins. During the afternoon move, notice how the real bodies of the candlesticks did not overlap. This tells you that you are in an orderly trade. Just keep moving your stop 10-20 cents below the previous 15 minute bar or half way up a really wide range bar for maximum profits. This type of action is my trading nirvana.

P.S. I traded each of these last three pivots and made money on each. I admit the second one was lame but it was profitable.

Here is the NVDA trade. Also a nice, easy to manage trade.


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Posted by Jamie at 8/03/2006 08:04:00 PM 2 comments

hefeiddd

Wednesday, August 02, 2006Watch List - CMED, NTES
CMED looks well positioned to break out of this double bottom - hopefully on higher volume.

NTES and SOHU should gap up in sympathy with SINA (earnings).

I'm not seeing much in the way of tradable setups tonight and I don't expect much from the market until we get the jobs data out on Friday morning.

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Posted by Jamie at 8/02/2006 10:55:00 PM 0 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture
Today's strength is being attributed to ADBE's affirmation of its Q3 EPS and revenue guidance. The market gapped up and held its opening gap throughout the session. A mid-afternoon swoon kept us from taking out the 20 EMA, however, we did manage 17 points on slightly higher volume. Software led the rally and most major tech sectors did well, the laggards were disk drive and networking which were down just slightly.

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Posted by Jamie at 8/02/2006 08:05:00 PM 6 comments




Trade of the Day - J2 Global Communications Inc. NASDAQ (JCOM)
As per last night's watch list, JCOM gapped lower on the open and immediately bounced towards a gap fill. I'm finding it easier to short these types of setups into strength rather than wait for confirmation and scrambling to short on an uptick. I took my usual 50% profit at the first reversal shortly after 10:00 and managed not to get stopped out on the balance. I guess I'm getting a little more confident with my short trades.

My only other trade was long NVDA around 11:00 EST which I closed just before leaving for lunch. Good for $0.65. The stock gapped up, pulled back and made a few NR range bars on the 15 minute view. Low risk entry.

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Posted by Jamie at 8/02/2006 07:28:00 PM 0 comments




Tuesday, August 01, 2006Watch List - FFIV, AMGN, JCOM, LRCX
Still holding out for another bearish play on FFIV. Looks like a high volume breach of $44.70 will sink it.

The biotech sector is one of the strongest tech sectors and AMGN looks well positioned to break higher on an uptick in volume.

JCOM's Q3 guidance was not very compelling given its lofty stock price. Although very thinly traded in AH, it did hit a low of $24.50 before recovering back up to $27.00.

LRCX has retested its broken neckline and looks ready to head south. On a measured move basis, it should fall at least another 10 points.

Last night's watch list is still in play even though the pullbacks were deeper than anticipated.

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Posted by Jamie at 8/01/2006 09:21:00 PM 6 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture

This week's correction following last week's technical bounce is not atypical. The light volume associated with this week's pullback is encouraging. However, now the bulls want to hold the 2052 pivot point rather than slip down to the next minor support level (2030) in order to keep the technical bounce alive.

A quick review of the major tech sectors is not all that inspiring: the SOX and Hardware have formed bearish evening star like patterns and the internet and networking sectors almost always look weak. The best looking sectors are biotechs and drugs.

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Posted by Jamie at 8/01/2006 07:43:00 PM 2 comments




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Monday, July 31, 2006Watch List - AKAM, ENER, NVDA, SLAB

AKAM

I won't be surprised if AKAM tries to break $40.00 in early action tomorrow, but I would prefer a long entry from $38.50.

ENER

NVDA

NVDA - Beginning of stage three consolidation after last week's bullish move.

SLAB

SLAB is consolidating recent gains. Look for potential intraday reversals from key support levels.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/31/2006 10:02:00 PM 0 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture


A healthy consolidation after last week's big move. Keep an eye on support/resistance and key pivot points.



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Posted by Jamie at 7/31/2006 07:57:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - Akamai Technologies NASDAQ (AKAM) Again
As suggested in this morning's watch list, AKAM was a buy on a break of its pivot above $37.40. I entered the trade on a high volume break and took my usual 50% profit on the 10:00 reversal. Not surprisingly, under today's market conditions, AKAM swooned all the back to test Friday's high. Once it appeared to have successfully tested and bounced, I re-entered the trade to my original share size and closed the entire position into the close. Sweet! P.S. My near-term target is still $42.50.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/31/2006 07:42:00 PM 0 comments




Watch List - AKAM
Blogger (Clogspot) won't let me post any images this morning.

The AKAM setup is a high volume break of $37.40 with a short-term target of $42.50. Support at $36.00 followed by $35.00.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/31/2006 08:13:00 AM 0 comments




Mailbag -
Interesting question from a regular
Nice trade on NVDA. What drew your attention to the stock in the first place? Is there any reason you didn't buy when it first pierced the previous day's high, which I have seen you do in the past? Was it a matter of not trusting the gap in the market and seeing how things played out before jumping in? Any clarification would be appreciated...Thanks.

NVDA has been part of my playbook for the past two weeks. I've been tracking the pivot points and various levels of support and resistance each day. On Thursday, it carved out a doji stick on the daily chart which led me to believe it would pull back before going higher. A combination of factors led to a gap up including the GDP data and talk of an Intel/Nvidia partnership. In the current downtrend, I'm not buying gap ups. I usually buy gap fills and that was my intent when I spotted the intial gap up on NVDA. However, it formed two candles with high upper shadows which signaled a pullback, but it consolidated in a very narrow range instead. So I decided to buy if it took out its pivot point - $21.35 (Thursday's high) on a third attempt.

The three day consolidation breakout pattern that was so successful for me in the winter is a great system for market uptrends, but is prone to head fakes and failures in a downtrend.



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Posted by Jamie at 7/31/2006 12:17:00 AM 0 comments




Friday, July 28, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture
The NASDAQ gapped up on the GDP data, carved out a wide range bar and closed on its highs. In so doing, it managed to recapture its 20 day EMA. The only caveat was the lower volume. We ended the week the same way we started it and finally the bulls can take comfort. We're still in a technical bounce with lots of resistance over head. NASDAQ 2100 is just 6 points away and the downtrend line is pretty evenly matched with the 50 MA, so don't be surprised if we have some profit taking early next week. The SOX paced the way in today's action but all tech sectors particapated. NVDA realized a 10% gain on the session (refer to the Trade of the Day post) followed by KLAC and BRCM at 6% and 5% respectively. Even the badly bruised internet and networking sectors managed to add 2.2% each.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/28/2006 10:14:00 PM 2 comments




Trade of the Day - NVIDIA Corporation NASDAQ (NVDA)
The market gapped up on the GDP report and tech stocks, led by semiconductors, broke through resistance. NVDA tested yesterday's high in early action but failed. After a shallow pullback and narrow range trade, it finally pushed through $21.35 with an uptick in volume around 11:00. This was my signal to buy at a very low risk entry point. There was never any need to get out of the trade until the end of the day. Notice how, after the break, there was hardly any overlap of the real candlestick bodies except during the lunch time consolidation. This is my definition of a perfect, orderly trade.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/28/2006 08:03:00 PM 0 comments




Thursday, July 27, 2006Watch List - CTXS, LRCX, BIDU, OSIP
CTXS is resuming its downtrend. The ADX is pushing 40 so momentum is bearish, however, we do have support in the $30.00 area.


LRCX is forming a bearish flag under its bearish H&S top. I don't think it will break tomorrow because it closed near the high end of the flag, but I wanted to post it tonight just in case.

BIDU looks like it will fill its bullish gap, but don't be surprised if it rallies temporarily when it fills the bearish gap ($71.38). There's also a lot of support at $70.00.

OSIP made a higher low today which is bullish in the context of the current consolidation pattern.
Still bullish on GENZ and NVDA (I'd like to see NVDA pullback to $19.00 before the next leg up) and bearish FFIV.



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Posted by Jamie at 7/27/2006 09:07:00 PM 3 comments




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Thursday, July 27, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture
The NASDAQ gapped up on the open and sellers came in almost immediately for some profit taking which was expected as we noted last night some sectors were looking pretty toppy. The worst sectors were networking and biotechs. The latter was due for some healthy profit taking and is still well positioned to move higher, but the networking sector cratered, giving it all back in one day. Leading the sector down were TLAB and JDSU with 16% and 8% losses respectively. Although we carved out a bearish engulfing bar, the 2050 pivot held on a closing basis. The NASDAQ observed the 20 EMA as resistance once again today, however, for the time being, the technical bounce is still in play.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/27/2006 07:43:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - Akamai Technologies NASDAQ (AKAM) Again
I couldn't resist picking up some AKAM again when it retested its $35.00 resistance from last night. I booked 50% of my profit as price hit $37.00 and I sold the balance after a failed attempt to make a higher high on the five minute view brought price back into $37.00. I bought it again after it held support at $36.00 for a quick rally into the close - good for another $0.75.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/27/2006 07:33:00 PM 0 comments




Watch List - OSIP, ADBE, BRCM
I was just about to post the watch list last night when my cable internet service died. Sorry for the delay.

OSIP has carved a bullish base over the last year and looks well positioned to try and fill its bearish gap from August 2005. The blue lines represent potential resistance levels. OSIP reports earnings on Monday August 7th. Thanks to Chris for calling this one!

ADBE looks poised for a technical bounce. Target is $28.50.



BRCM is extremely oversold and will likely bounce either from its current support level or the next level at $20.00.





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Posted by Jamie at 7/27/2006 07:05:00 AM 0 comments




Wednesday, July 26, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture
We are consolidating Monday and Tuesday's gains. As long as we don't take out 2050 ( pivot point) on a closing basis, the consolidation is healthy. Biotechs, drugs and health care are still strong but the latter two are getting toppy from a technical perspective. CEPH was halted AH on a report that Q2 income will exceed previously issued guidance by 40%. The best performing stocks on my screen today were AAPL and SLAB, which finally broke out of their post earnings consolidation ranges. Stay tuned.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/26/2006 09:03:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - Akamai Technologies Inc. NASDAQ (AKAM)
AKAM reported strong earnings AH beating the estimate by 2 cents. As soon I read "We had an exceptionally strong quarter, exceeding our growth expectations", I knew I wanted to get in on the AH trade. I waited until the price stabilized after the initial wild price swings and took position at $32.55. I was trading from the office so I didn't have the benefit of an AH chart. All I could tell from my stockchart.com was that resistance was at $36.00. Price consolidated for quite some time after taking out $33.00, but patience paid off as it soon took out $34.00 and shortly thereafter made a quick dash towards $35.00. I took my exit at $35.00. I didn't want to risk having trouble getting out if price decided to pull back as I was trading from a Web Trader. Trading from a Web Trader is like trading the old fashion way - refresh, refresh, refresh....

My trading rules with respect to trading earnings is only to attempt this with highly liquid, well known names. Min. avg. daily volume of 5 million. I always wait 5 minutes (or more) for the wild price swings to shake out. After the shake out, if the stock is trading above the 10 period EMA on the 5 minute view, I try to go long as close the MA as possible. Vice versa on a short. Trading earnings is very risky because a stock could be trading up on earnings but as the conference call progresses, the dynamics could change. If you are going to trade earnings successfully, you have to have a good system. I learned this the hard way. Hope you can benefit from my experience.

My only other trade today was GILD on a buy stop order above yesterday's high which triggered around 9:45. I took my full profit at 10:00 because I didn't like the way the Qs were acting.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/26/2006 07:21:00 PM 0 comments




Tuesday, July 25, 2006Watch List - ADSK, GILD, FFIV
If ADSK breaks resistance it will no doubt, test its trendline. ADSK doesn't report earnings until August 17th.


GILD is retesting resistance.

FFIV's low volume rally back to resistance foreshadows further weakness.
Also on the watch list are CERN (has consolidated recent gains) GENZ, NVDA, SLAB, and WIRE (big earnings beat AH).



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Posted by Jamie at 7/25/2006 11:27:00 PM 0 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture
The NASDAQ didn't offer much in the way of surprises in this session. We tested resistance in the first half hour and pulled back. The middle of the day was very narrow range trade, followed by a strong finish. Led by biotechs, most tech sectors were able to add to yesterday's big gains. The one sore spot was the internet sector which gapped down and couldn't even manage a gap fill intraday. Expect more weakness from this sector after the AMZN miss tonight.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/25/2006 08:42:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - Cephalon Inc. NASDAQ (CEPH) and Genzyme NASDAQ (GENZ)
As per last night's watch list, CEPH was a buy stop order on a break of yesterday's high. I sold 50% as price hit $66.00 and the NASDAQ was testing 2075 resistance. I thought to sell the entire lot because I didn't think the NASDAQ could go any higher after yesterday's big move, but greed kept me in the trade and a half hour later I was stopped out on the balance of my position. When the breakout point failed to hold as support on the first pullback, I decided to move on. As it turns, out CEPH had two more rallies before fading back in at the end of the session. The daily looks like a failed breakout so I won't continue with CEPH tomorrow.


GENZ is one of my favorites lately and this setup was obvious. This support level which was yesterday's breakout point was almost certain to hold on the second test. I know it doesn't look like much on the 15 minute view, but it was just pennies shy of a pt. GENZ is still bullish on the daily but I expect resistance around $67.28 - 200 MA.






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hefeiddd

Monday, July 24, 2006Watch List - Potential Momentum Plays - NASDAQ (NVDA), (SLAB), and (LVLT)
NVDA is being heralded as the big winner from today's merger because ATYT will be tied to AMD and NVDA will have the rest of the world. Looks like last week's move was in anticipation of this week's news. NVDA doesn't report earnings until August 10th.


A big earnings beat and higher guidance, it doesn't get much better than this. I'd like to see SLAB pullback to $35.00 for an entry on support.

LVLT showed up on a momentum scan and it looks like it wants to push higher after all this consolidation. N.B. LVLT reports tomorrow BTB - Reuters est -0.22


CEPH is not a momentum play just yet, but it has formed a nice base (almost an inverted H&S bottom) and could break anytime now.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/24/2006 10:11:00 PM 0 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture -Finally a Technical Bounce
As highlighted here over the weekend, several tech sectors were due for a technical bounce. So this morning with news of the AMD/ATYT merger, strong earnings pre-market, and no new negative catalysts, we were finally able to bounce without the Fed. I would have liked to see more volume but positive tech earnings in AH from big semi names like SNDK and TXN should give this bounce some legs and a potential for continuation. Possible resistance in the area of 2075 and, no doubt, at our 2100 pivot point.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/24/2006 08:00:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - Lam Research Corp NASDAQ (LRCX) and Genzyme NASDAQ (GENZ)
LRCX was a buy after it held breakout support during the 10:00 reversal period. I locked in a 50% profit after a 1 pt. gain and gap fill. The balance of the trade was exited around the same price about 45 minutes later, on the first signs of weakness.


GENZ was very bullish on the open but formed a high upper shadow into resistance shortly after the open. These types of reversals before 10:00 often signal a failure so I was cautious getting in. I waited until spport held and price bounced before getting long. I exited 50% on strength as price approached resistance and held the balance into the close. My stop was set 10 cents below last Thursday's high for the balance of the trade.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/24/2006 07:44:00 PM 0 comments




Technical Bounce In Play
The technical bounce I mentioned over the weekend is in play. I picked up some KLAC and LRCX this morning and started booking profits as soon as Friday morning's gap was filled. Also picked up some GENZ for a nice continuation play off of last week's bullish move. Charts later this evening.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/24/2006 11:19:00 AM 2 comments




Pre-Market - AMD and ATYT Together At Last.
AMD and ATI (ATYT 16.56) announce plans to join forces in a transaction valued at approx $5.4 bln. Under the terms of the transaction, AMD will acquire all of the outstanding common shares of ATI for a combination of $4.2 bln in cash and 57 mln shares of AMD common stock, based on the number of shares of ATI common stock outstanding on July 21, 2006. Based upon the closing price of AMD common stock on July 21, 2006 of $18.26 a share, the consideration for each outstanding share of ATI common stock would be $20.47, comprised of $16.40 of cash and 0.2229 shares of AMD common stock. AMD expects that the transaction will be slightly accretive to earnings in 2007, and meaningfully accretive in 2008, before the inclusion of ATI acquisition-related charges.

ATYT started trading up AH on Friday as this takeover was reported by Canada's #1 financial news source the Globe and Mail. From a close Friday of $16.56, ATYT ended the AH session at $18.00, currently trading at $19.00. AMD, conversely is trading down below Friday's low (currently trading at $17.21). NVDA will also be in play on this news. Expect NVDA to test recent lows in early action this morning.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/24/2006 07:19:00 AM 3 comments




Watch List - Cerner Corp. NASDAQ (CERN)
CERN gapped up on earnings and Q3 guidance on Friday. The volume and ADX crossover show strong momentum. A quick look at the Time and Sales leads me to believe that we have institutional buying as I noted many large block sales early in the session. Key support areas are $38.00 followed by $37.00.



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Posted by Jamie at 7/24/2006 12:06:00 AM 0 comments




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Posted by Jamie at 7/23/2006 08:01:00 PM 2 comments




Sectors due for a Technical Bounce - GHA, NWX and SOX
From the weekly charts below you will see that hardware, networking and semis are all trading at multi-year pivot point levels and the RSIs are all around 30. Don't be surprised if we get a technical bounce shortly.





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Posted by Jamie at 7/23/2006 01:08:00 AM 2 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture

DELL's pre-market warning set the tone for some fast selling on the open. However, the selling leveled off fairly quickly and the rest of the session was narrow range. The SOX, hardware and networking sectors all suffered heavy losses on Friday and are all trading at multi-year pivot point levels. It will be interesting to see if they observe these levels as support in the early going next week. The NASDAQ may attempt to fill Friday's opening gap on Monday (see the 15 minute view below).



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Posted by Jamie at 7/23/2006 12:37:00 AM 0 comments




Friday, July 21, 2006Trade of the Day - Atheros Communications Inc. NASDAQ (ATHR)
As per last night's watch list, ATHR was trading down in pre-market (as were many tech names) and fell out of its bearish rising wedge on the open. My entry was $16.80 and I covered 50% shortly before the 10:00 reversal time as price started to rise rapidly. I was stopped out on the balance of my trade just above $16.00 in mid-morning. The rest of the trading day was narrow range so I didn't take any other positions.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/21/2006 08:12:00 PM 2 comments




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Friday, July 21, 2006ATHR Update - Bearish Rising Wedge
From last night's watch list.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/21/2006 12:18:00 PM 2 comments




Pre-Market - DELL Warning

The DELL warning could make for an interesting trading session despite options expiration. I'm looking at AAPL - if it gaps down below yesterday's low, we'll have a bearish island reversal. The blue line above marks the pre-market low so far. I'm off to work.

Good trading!

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Posted by Jamie at 7/21/2006 08:44:00 AM 0 comments




Thursday, July 20, 2006Watch List - ATHR, CMCSK

Two chart patterns that may provide potential trades. Don't take a position until the actual break.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/20/2006 09:15:00 PM 0 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture

Looks like the bears are starting to play dirty - they annihilated yesterday's big gain in one session. I was really only focused on one stock today and I didn't realize how bad the day was until near the end of the session. The bulls are on the defense again. Nothing new there, but it's too soon to tell if they're going to continue to be as submissive on a retest of the July lows. Tomorrow is options expiration and that means trading lite for me.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/20/2006 08:27:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - Travelzoo Inc. NASDAQ: (TZOO)
TZOO's earnings were a real disappointment as noted here this morning. The pre-market trade was too choppy so I waited to see how it opened and decided to short on a gap fill. My target was yesterday's low and I covered my intial short for a gain of 2.4 pts. When I came back from lunch, I noticed it couldn't get a bounce and was hovering just above support. It reminded me of YHOO yesterday so I got ready to short again on a breach of support. I covered half of my second short as soon as price fell into the next support level and covered the balance into the close. I never imagined that a stock could shed 6 points on a two cent beat, but I guess the party's over and everyone wanted out.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/20/2006 07:29:00 PM 3 comments




Pre-Market
TZOO prelim $0.23 vs $0.21 Reuters consensus; revs $17.4 mln vs $17.56 mln Reuters consensus. I'm disappointed.

NDAQ prelim $0.13 vs $0.08 Reuters consensus; revs $411.0 mln vs $401.75 mln Reuters consensus.
IMCL prelim $0.42 vs $0.37 Reuters consensus; revs $149.9 mln vs $141.67 mln Reuters consensusF Ford Motor misses by $0.17, misses on revs (6.33 )

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Posted by Jamie at 7/20/2006 07:15:00 AM 2 comments




Wednesday, July 19, 2006Watch List - TZOO
TZOO reports Q2 earnings tomorrow before the bell. I have mapped out all of the key support and resistance areas on my chart and will be trading it in pre-market if there is a significant beat or miss. Consensus estimates are $0.21 Reuters and year ago results were $0.12. Year/year revenue is 17.56.

N.B. In Q1 TZOO beat by $0.10 and reported a y/y revenue increase of 52.9%.

Not that it's of any consequence, but I hear Cramer is bearish on TZOO.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/19/2006 11:09:00 PM 1 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture
The NASDAQ carved out a wide range bullish engulfing stick on BB's muddled Fed statements. Once again the implication was an end to tightening. Yada, yada, yada. Except this time we have a lot more positive divergence built into the charts so we may have a better chance for some continuity. 2100 will act as resistance on the first attempt as this is a solid pivot point and it lines up well with the 20 day EMA. Earnings of course, will have to come in strong to support a move above 2100. It used to be that everytime BB spoke, it was a signal to sell, now we've come full circle.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/19/2006 07:34:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - Genzyme Corporation NASDAQ: (GENZ)
This GENZ tarde was the exact same setup as yesterday - a consolidation breakout above $63.00. The only difference is that today it worked out perfectly. Good for almost 2 pts.

I also traded the NVDA setup which I had originaly wanted to buy on a pullback to $18.50 (yesterday's post market low), but it never reached that level. So I picked some up at $18.75 and sold them at the same time as I sold the GENZ for a 1 pt. gain.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/19/2006 07:14:00 PM 0 comments




Tuesday, July 18, 2006Watch List - NVDA, MNST, GRMN, CTXS, CREE, AMZN

Click on charts for larger view and to read chart notes.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/18/2006 10:40:00 PM 0 comments




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Tuesday, July 18, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture
After carving out a lower low midday, we managed to close on a positive note heading into earnings, but they failed to impress and the NDX futures are down 6.5 points in AH. As I said last night we need big earnings from lots of big players otherwise we continue our journey south. YHOO is down almost 14% in AH for meeting concensus. Expect a lower open and a retest of today's lows in the early going tomorrow.




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Posted by Jamie at 7/18/2006 07:53:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - NVIDIA Corporation NASDAQ (NVDA)
NVDA gapped up on the open due to an Amtech upgrade. The first 15 minute bar formed a high upper shadow, signaling a potential gap fill. I didn't short it but I waited patiently to see if it would bounce once the gap was filled. My entry was $17.85 when it appeared that NVDA would hold support in the $17.80 area. My stop was set at $17.70 which was 5 cents below the low of the preceding 15 minute bar making this a low risk entry given the weak market condition. It eventually paid off, but patience was the name of the game.

My only other trade was GENZ on a buy stop order just above $63.00 as per last night's watch list. I booked my usual 50% profit at the 10:00 reversal time and was stopped out with a scratch on the rest.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/18/2006 07:27:00 PM 0 comments




Monday, July 17, 2006Watch List - GENZ, JCOM
GENZ could go either way, but based on the technicals and bullish gap, I'm going to favor an upside breakout.
Although I don't think JCOM will be able to successfully retest recent highs in the near term because there's just too much supply in the $31-32 area, I think it may get a decent bounce from this important support level.

Also look for continuation with BIDU. My watch list also includes recent picks FFIV, MRVL, CTXS, GILD, and TZOO.


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Posted by Jamie at 7/17/2006 09:24:00 PM 0 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture

At these oversold levels and after last week's precipitous meltdown into support, a little bounce would have been in order, but as I said last night, highly doubtful. We need a catalyst. We need better than expected earnings from several big names in the really beaten down sectors like the SOX and NWX to generate some buy side interest and move the market in a meaningful way. Two or three big earnings reports won't be enough to pull us out of the gutter.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/17/2006 08:03:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - Baidu.com Inc. NASDAQ (BIDU)
As per last night's watch list, BIDU is one of only a handful of good looking long setups left on the NASDAQ which meets my liquidity requirements. I set a buy stop order 10 cents above Friday's high and I was filled on the open. I took a 50% profit as price approached resistance in the $91.00 area and I closed the position as price approached running a few scans. You know that things are very bearish when your bullish scans only generate two or three names. The NASDAQ market as well as the balance of my watch list were pretty much range bound.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/17/2006 07:22:00 PM 2 comments




Marvell Technology Group Ltd. NASDAQ (MRVL)
On a measured move basis, MRVL should catch a bid at this pivot point level from its H&S top breakdown. Short-term target is $41.50. The monthly chart below highlights the significance of this support level.



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Posted by Jamie at 7/17/2006 01:02:00 AM 0 comments




Sunday, July 16, 2006Watch List - Relative Strength (Emphasis on Relative)
Just a few names to add to the existing watch list.








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Posted by Jamie at 7/16/2006 11:35:00 PM 0 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture


Its critical that we bounce here on a retest of the October lows. However, it seems highly doubtful given the geo-political situation and current economic conditions. If we can't put together a sizable rally over the next two weeks of Q2 earnings, we are going to fall into a full fledged bear market which will likely take us down another 300 -500 points from here.
We have a lot of big names reporting this week:
Tues AH: IBM, YHOO
Wed. AH: LRCX, MOT, AAPL, CTXS, EBAY, INTC, QCOM
Thurs. BTB: TZOO
Thurs. AH: AMD, BRCM, CERN, FFIV, GOOG, MSFT


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Posted by Jamie at 7/16/2006 11:15:00 PM 0 comments




highchartpatterns.com
The folks at highchartpatterns seems to share similar trading setups as this blog. Check it out here.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/16/2006 10:52:00 PM 0 comments




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Friday, July 14, 2006Trade of the Day - F5 Networks Inc. NASDAQ: (FFIV)
As per last night's watch list, I shorted FFIV shortly after the open when when it took out yesterday afternoon's low. When price took out last Monday's low, I was very optimistic about reaching $45.00 by the end of the day. I booked my usual 50% profit after a 1 pt. gain. I was surprised when I came back that I had been stopped out. FFIV rallied all the way back to $47.00 which was former support and then fell again. This time it made a higher low. Volume started to pick up on the long side heading into lunch hour so I jumped in. I took my profit on the first signs of weakness and decided not to trade the afternoon because Friday p.m. is usually range bound.

I've highlighted the intraday pivot point with a red line ($47.00). It will be interesting to see how FFIV reacts to this price level going into next week. Thanks again to Dave for pointing out the bear flag setup last night.

ENER, our other watch list stock, gapped up on a UBS upgrade to outperform. For me, the gap was too wide and it invalidated my setup. It was tradable after the gap fill for a nice gain but I didn't trade it.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/14/2006 07:25:00 PM 2 comments




Mailbag
In my haste last night, I forgot to acknowledge that the FFIV bearish flag setup came to me from Doctor Dave who sent in a beautifully annotated stock chart. Thanks Dave and good luck!

I've fallen behind in responding to my emails but I will get all caught up this weekend.

Good Trading!

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Posted by Jamie at 7/14/2006 07:24:00 AM 8 comments




Thursday, July 13, 2006Watch List - ENER, FFIV
ENER is setting up for a technical bounce and perhaps a double bottom reversal. Buy on a break of today's high.


FFIV is forming a bearish flag and all of the MAs are converging over head to push price down. The MACD has just crossed over so we want to short below $47.00. $45.00 is a pivot point so it will act as resistance and the stock may bounce depending on how oversold the markets are at that point. Near-term target is $42.50.
A lot of semi stocks were strong despite the afternoon's big fade and I noticed a lot of potential morning star patterns forming so keep that in mind during tomorrow's session. ALTR, AMAT, CYMI, and INTC to name a few.



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Posted by Jamie at 7/13/2006 11:06:00 PM 0 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture


The NASDAQ gapped down about 15 points on the open and headed south in a hurry. At the 10:00 reversal time it found support at 2060 and changed course, heading back up in an attempt to fill the opening gap. As soon as that target was achieved, the bears took back control for some heavy afternoon selling. The NASDAQ shed 36 points for a new closing low. We are quickly approaching the October lows and should find some support near 2025. The ADX line has signaled that the second wave of selling is underway.

The P&F chart above has a preliminary target of 1920.

The SPX:COMPQ chart shows that the last two selling waves produced reversals around these levels. However, it must be said that the last summer's dip was much more orderly than the current one.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/13/2006 08:11:00 PM 2 comments




Trade of the Day - Citrix Systems Inc. NASDAQ (CTXS)
I got the idea for this trade after readingsitting on support and after looking at the 60 minute view, I noticed a lot of positive divergence so I added it to my short list of potential trades for today.

The stock gapped down like many stocks this morning, and came within a few cents of its 200 day MA on the daily. From there it consolidated the gap loss for the better part of an hour. As soon as it took out the gap open high, I went long. I booked 50 % of my profit after a 1 pt. gain because the 50 MA was hovering just above. I exited the balance of the trade shortly after it carved out a star candle on the 15 minute view.

[size=130%]Update on Last Night's Watch List Stocks

TZOO did not trigger a long entry on the open because it gapped so low that it created a bearish island reversal on the daily view. Once yesterday morning's gap was filled, it pulled back sharply and could have been shorted when it slipped back under its 50 MA on the five minute view.

FFIV gapped lower on the open, but it held yesterday's low as support, so I took a chance. My entry was $47.95 and my exit was $48.89.

AMZN didn't do much and it invalidated itself as a potential trade for now.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/13/2006 07:03:00 PM 0 comments




Wednesday, July 12, 2006Watch List - FFIV, TZOO, AMZN
FFIV is consolidating its recent losses nicely and looks like it may retest the $50.00 pivot point. FFIV reports earning Thursday, July 20th AH.

After filling the bearish gap resistance intraday, TZOO retreated and closed under the gap. This is usually a bearish signal, however, this stock has a lot of momentum to the upside, so I'm not expecting much of a pullback. In fact, I will be watching to see if it doesn't rebound after filling this morning's bullish gap.

By all accounts, TZOO's UK business is performing very well. We'll soon find out as they announced today that they will be reporting Q2 results on Thurs. July 20th BTB.


AMZN may be forming a bullish ascending triangle. Look for a close above the trendline tomorrow. AMZN reports earnings on Tuesday July 25th AH.
Both of last night's watch list names - IDIX and GNSS gapped up and performed well in today's weak market. They also formed NR bars with upper shadows. I will be looking for possible gap fills and another long trading opportunity if the gaps hold as support.
RIMM formed a higher low - no trade setup just yet.


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Posted by Jamie at 7/12/2006 09:56:00 PM 0 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture
According to the McClellan Oscillator, we went from deeply oversold to overbought and now we are neutral. Funny, it doesn't feel that way.

The NASDAQ broke support of its mini trendline and 2100 on a closing basis. Yesterday's leader, the SOX was a fade today for sure. Volume is still not compelling, but based on the technicals, it looks like the NAZ is heading lower. The next target will be the June lows.

CREE warned in AH that revenues will come in at the low end of guidance due to production challenges. The stock cratered to $17.00, a loss of 5.5 points from today's close. Other than KLAC, good news appears to be hard to come by for the battered semi sector.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/12/2006 07:58:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - Travelzoo Inc. NASDAQ: (TZOO)
Long time readers of the blog will recognize this setup as one of my favorites. Of course, we don't get many of these in a bearish downtrend. The setup is a buy stop order just above the pre-market high. I usually let my profit run until the 10:00 reversal time, but because of today's market weakness, I decided to take a 50% profit as soon as I was up 1 pt. The balance was sold when TZOO made a lower high on the 5 minute time frame.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/12/2006 07:41:00 PM 0 comments




Tuesday, July 11, 2006Research in Motion NASDAQ (RIMM)
RIMM carved out a reversal hammer after filling its bullish gap support. The earnings breakout is still intact and technically, this is a bullish setup, however, I want to see it trade above its 50 day MA before going long.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/11/2006 11:41:00 PM 0 comments




Watch List - Genesis Microchip Inc. NASDAQ (GNSS)
GNSS carved out a bullish morningstar reversal pattern off of a multi-year pivot point. Should be good for a technical bounce. Thanks monkeydust!

My watch list also includes BRCM and TZOO along with a number of semi stocks which have bullish candlstick reversal patterns (too many to post).

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Posted by Jamie at 7/11/2006 11:08:00 PM 2 comments




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Tuesday, July 11, 2006Bottom Fishing - Idenix Pharmaceuticals Inc. NASDAQ (IDIX)
IDIX broke resistance of a two month base today on higher volume. If it can hold $10.00 support on a closing basis, it will be well positioned to move much higher in the near-term. I like the way the ADX is setting up and I'm adding it to my watch list.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/11/2006 09:33:00 PM 3 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture

A weak open turned into an optimistic close as bargain hunters put semiconductors in the early lead and NASDAQ 2100 held as support once again. From the chart we can see that the NASDAQ finished strong and volume ticked up above the last several sessions. From the midday lows to the close, the NAZ put together a 30 point move. Seven of the NDX 100 top 10, were semiconductors with KLAC (up 8.2%) pacing the way. Now, can we follow through tomorrow? In my humble opinion, now that the semis are showing some signs of leadership, we have better odds ;)

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Posted by Jamie at 7/11/2006 08:36:00 PM 2 comments




Trade of the Day - The Anderson's Inc. NASDAQ (ANDE)

Long ANDE shortly after 12:00 as it lifted away from support. It then spent the better part of an hour and a half consolidating just above my entry point. Finally it started moving up and easily took out yesterday’s high. I exited into the close just under $47.00 for a 2 pt. gain.


Semiconductors were the easy leaders off of this morning’s market weakness. Having decided not to trade the open, I waited patiently for BRCM to pull back and establish support. I entered long shortly after 1:30 as volume ticked noticeably higher. I exited 50% of my position into yesterday’s resistance and held the balance until near the close.

Just to wrap up last night's watch list stocks, I did not trade RIMM because the early morning pullback was too deep and invalidated the pattern. Instead I took a piece of TZOO’s mid-afternoon bounce when it became increasingly apparent that the NASDAQ was going to hold 2100 as support once again.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/11/2006 08:23:00 PM 2 comments




Monday, July 10, 2006Watch List - BRCM, ANDE, RIMM
BRCM closed just above long-term support and could conceivably get a bounce here if the NAZ doesn't fall through.

ANDE had a high volume break of the down trendline today and the chart technicals look very bullish.
RIMM gapped up on earnings and is in the process of consolidating those gains just above gap support in the form of a bullish flag.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/10/2006 10:35:00 PM 0 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture
The NASDAQ shed another 13 points on relatively low volume. Networking and hardware paced the way down followed closely by the SOX. Technically we could bounce here, but we need to see a higher low on the 60 minute view.

If we can't bounce off of the is minor trendline, I don't think 2100 will hold as support on the fourth test.




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Posted by Jamie at 7/10/2006 10:04:00 PM 2 comments




Trade of the Day - F5 Networks Inc. NASDAQ: (FFIV)
Talk about a lost opportunity. FFIV was one of the big losers on the NASDAQ today giving back 7.68% to close at $48.35 with an intraday low of $46.38. As per last night's watch list, FFIV was a short setup on a pullback to support with a target of $50.00. The entry was a break of Friday's low and I exited my entire position when the target was reached for a +2 pt. gain. Then I couldn't help but laugh ( and cry) as I watched it plummet as low as $46.38 on no news.

The TZOO short was invalidated on a gap up and the ENER short just got away from me so I passed.

Sorry for the late posting tonight - busy day at the office.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/10/2006 09:14:00 PM 0 comments




Watch List Short: (ENER), (FFIV), (TZOO)
ENER short on weakness. FFIV and TZOO - short on pullback to support (short-term). These last two are still bullish near-term.

Click on charts for larger view and chart notes.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/10/2006 12:43:00 AM 0 comments




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Posted by Jamie at 7/09/2006 11:04:00 PM 0 comments




Friday, July 07, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture

The jobs data failed to inspire buyers so the bears took control of the session. The NASDAQ breached its 20 day EMA on the open and shed 25 points by the end of the day. Volume was below average but higher than yesterday. Networking paced the way down, but the SOX managed to take out last week's low intraday.

We have bullish gap support between 2121 and 2111 which may provide support early next week, but overall, things are looking pretty bearish.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/07/2006 10:38:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - Apple Computer Inc. NASDAQ: AAPL
Decided not to trade the open because of the long upper shadows which formed on both AAPL and the Qs shortly after the release of the jobs data would have resulted a very wide stops. Once AAPL had recaptured $55.00, I felt it was safe to enter a long position. I could have shorted the trendline break in the afternoon, but I missed the initial break and decided not to chase it. My only other trade was a short of AMD after the initial gap fill, but that trade went basically nowhere (scratch).

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Posted by Jamie at 7/07/2006 08:42:00 PM 0 comments




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Thursday, July 06, 2006Watch List - Update on recent Picks - SLAB, ADSK, PEIX, AMD
Originally profiled as a long setup, SLAB is starting to look more like short. Either way, it will be tradable on a break of the mini ascending triangle.

My buy setup for ADSK triggered this afternoon at $33.00. I sold my position into the close for a small gain because I didn't want to hold ahead of the jobs report. However, if $33.00 holds as support tomorrow, we have a tradable higher low on the heels of a bullish morning star reversal pattern from last week.

PEIX just carved out a bearish engulfing bar at pivot resistance, so we'll wait for a pullback to support before getting long again.

The AMD trade didn't trigger today, but it will tomorrow on a lower sales forecast for Q2.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/06/2006 10:37:00 PM 3 comments




Travelzoo Nasdaq:(TZOO) - Low Volatility Breakout
Yesterday TZOO broke out of a low volatility trading range after forming a bullish base. We have resistance just over head in the form of a bearish gap between $36.61 and $37.00. However, we have a bullish ADX crossover and a rising ADX line. Momentum will build as the ADX line crosses 20 and moves higher. I would like to see it fill both gaps on either side of today's stick before taking off again, but it may not. Keep this one on your radar as the initial break and technicals are very promising.

I recently

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Posted by Jamie at 7/06/2006 10:00:00 PM 0 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture
As discussed in this post last night, a close below the 20 day EMA would have been very bearish. The NASDAQ managed to hold that technical indicator going into tomorrow's jobs report which could have a significant impact on direction in so far as too many new jobs would signal greater potential for further Fed tightening which is not good for equities.

I'm watching the ADX and RSI very closely. If the RSI can stay in the 45- 50 area or move higher, it will signal strength. The all important ADX momentum indicator is coming back into the 20 level which accounts for the lack of momentum. The +D and -D are both very neutral which justifies the absence of direction.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/06/2006 08:17:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - Travelzoo Inc. NASDAQ: (TZOO)
I used to follow TZOO quite closely, but at some point I lost interest. Anyway, it happened to catch my eye in the pre-market so I watched it closely off of the open. After it held support of the 50 period moving average and formed a long lower shadow, it was time to get long. I sold half of my position into strength when it first hit $36.00. I sold the second half of my position after it carved out a lower high on the 5 minute view. Today's high marks bearish resitance dating back to May 12th. The gap spans $36.61 to $37.00. I don't expect it to trade above that level until it has had a chance to consolidate its recent gains, but I'll be watching it closely going forward.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/06/2006 07:54:00 PM 0 comments




Pre-Market
Citigroup out with semiconductor upgrades and downgrades this morning:
Upgrades from Hold to Buy
MCHP
ONNN
Downgrades from Buy to Hold
LLTC
ADI
MXIM

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Posted by Jamie at 7/06/2006 07:59:00 AM 3 comments




Watch List - Todco NYSE: (THE), Advanced Micro Devices Inc. NYSE: (AMD)
THE is consolidating Thursday's post Fed gains very nicely. It could be a consolidation breakout candidate (of which there are few these days) so add it to your watch list. Thanks to md for spotting this one.


AMD is a short candidate on any further SOX weakness.
Still bullish on PEIX and ADSK as per Tuesday's watch list.
Good Trading!






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Posted by Jamie at 7/06/2006 12:30:00 AM 0 comments




Wednesday, July 05, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture
The NASDAQ shed 37 points amid a broad based morning decline on relatively low volume. If it can't snap back in the early going tomorrow, the NAZ will likely head towards another retest of 2100 in the coming days. That level of support is getting tired, so I'm not optimistic going into a fourth retest. Some major tech sectors are already giving bearish signals that lower prices are inevitable, most notably the SOX which paced the way down today. A failure to hold support of the 20 day EMA on a closing basis tomorrow will be very bearish. Today's weak volume is somewhat puzzling but is likely related to the holiday effect.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/05/2006 07:55:00 PM 4 comments




Trade of the Day - (PEIX) and (QQQQ)
As per last night's watch list, I was looking for PEIX to fill its Monday morning gap before geting long. However, it stopped in the same support area as Monday and started bouncing, so I bought it at the same price as I did Monday and made the same money all over again.

I shorted the Q's in pre-market because everything was very negative going into the session and I didn't want to chase once the regular session got underway. I covered at the obvious support level for a $0.60 gain.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/05/2006 07:33:00 PM 0 comments




Tuesday, July 04, 2006Watch List - Pacific Ethanol Inc. (PEIX), Autodesk (ADSK)
I traded PEIX on Monday morning for a nice gain. It has formed a nice base but has run into resistance at $25.00. Now I'd like to see it fill Monday's gap and close above it before getting long again. If the gap goes unfilled, it may be a bullish island reversal setup because we also have an unfilled gap on the way down from June 26th. The chart below is a 60 minute view with support and resistance lines.

ADSK completed a bullish morning star reversal pattern last Thursday off of long-term support at $33.00. It's now coming into resistance in the $35.00 area. I'd like to see it make a tradable higher low before getting long.

The 60 minute view below outlines support (blue) and resistance (red). A breach of $33.60 on a closing basis would be bearish.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/04/2006 10:16:00 PM 0 comments




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NASDAQ Technical Picture - Are We Going Higher from Here?

Click on charts for larger views.

This chart of the NASDAQ shows that we have retraced 38% of the move off of the April highs. It also shows how we are on the cusp of recapturing the long-term trendline. If we succeed in recapturing the trendline and rallying from there, the price action below the trendline would be considered a bear trap.

This is a 60 minute view of the NASDAQ with support (blue) and resistance levels (red). The steepness of the last leg up is not likely sustainable beyond the next two resistance levels.

The Nasdaq led the way down and normally would lead the way back up. However, currently the NASDAQ is lagging both the S&P and the DOW in the corrective bounce. Furthermore, the SOX's participation has been lame. Unless we get more leadership from the SOX in the very short-term, it is unlikely that the NASDAQ will succeed much higher.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/04/2006 08:15:00 PM 0 comments




Monday, July 03, 2006Trade of the Day - Pacific Ethanol Inc - NASDAQ: (PEIX)
PEIX was trading up in pre-market. I didn't buy it on the open because I figured today's low volume action could cause it to come back in. After it successfully retested the pre-market high as support, I decided to get long just as price crossed $24.00. I booked 50 % of my profit after a 1 pt. gain. Shortly after it breached the 10 period EMA (on a closing basis) on the 5 minute view, I exited the balance of my position.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/03/2006 05:19:00 PM 0 comments




Watch List - EnCana (ECA), Silicon Labs (SLAB)
SLAB looks like it wants to move higher here. It had a strong finish in Friday's AH trade.



This is a picture of EnCana Corp. (ECA) which trades on the TSX. The U.S. chart has the same characteristics. Based on its recent trading channel, ECA is starting to look overbought.

Click on charts for larger view.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/03/2006 12:43:00 AM 2 comments




Sunday, July 02, 2006Mailbag - Any thoughts on Dynamic Materials Corp. - NASDAQ (BOOM)
I was an avid trader of BOOM during its rise from $7.00 to $20.00 in early 2005. BOOM is still on my 100 favorites list, but I don't trade it as often as I used to. The most recent chart action has been relatively bullish since it held bullish gap support in late May. Resistance in the $34-$36 area is just over head.

Click on chart for larger view.

BOOM is covered extensively and thoroughly by blogger Downtown

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Posted by Jamie at 7/02/2006 09:02:00 PM 0 comments




Trade Setup - Low Volatility Breakout
Low volatility intraday setups usually occur following a period of significantly lower volume within a narrow trading range when all of the moving averages are converging on a five minute time frame. Those familiar with Bollinger Bands will recognize this setup from its narrow bandwidth.

A successful breakout from a low volatility intraday setup will generate a steep, orderly curve over a relatively short timeframe. Consolidations at resistance levels are generally shallow and brief. Excluding consolidations, these breakouts are distinctive in that there is normally little or no overlap of the real bodies of the candlesticks which form the breakout curve. Consolidations should not breach the 10 period EMA on a closing basis. If they do, it’s usually a failure or the end of the move and should taken as signal to exit the trade.

A recent example is the breakout which ensued following Thursday’s Fed announcement. A close examination of the Nasdaq 100 Shares (QQQQ) chart below highlights the main characteristics of the low volatility intraday setup.



Here are two bullish examples (June 29th and June 15th) with Apple Computer Inc. (AAPL) which is one of my favorite names for this type of setup.




Here is a bearish example again with AAPL dating back to June 18th.

In summary, the key elements to look for in the low volatility breakout setup are:
1. An interval of low volume, narrow range trade just prior to the breakout;
2. Convergence of moving averages prior to the break;
3. Volume spike on the break and higher volume throughout the move;
4. Steep, orderly curve (60-80 degree angle) - little or no overlap of candlestick bodies except in the consolidation zones;
5. Stay in the trade until the the target is met or the 10 period EMA is breached on a closing basis on the five minute view. Trail a stop just under the 10 period EMA following the first retest of the breakout point.
6. Map out potential support and resistance areas prior to entering the trade so that consolidations don't provoke early exits.


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Posted by Jamie at 7/02/2006 02:33:00 PM 0 comments




Saturday, July 01, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture

Click on chart for larger view.

The NASDAQ shed 2.6 points on higher volume Friday as semis gave back 1%. The higher volume was surprising as most of the session felt like a low volume, snoozefest. The narrow range bar did not cause any technical damage and we'll have to wait until after the holiday weekend to see if we can build on Thursday’s gains.

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Posted by Jamie at 7/01/2006 11:53:00 PM 0 comments





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Posted by Jamie at 6/30/2006 08:30:00 PM 0 comments




Thursday, June 29, 2006Watch List - BRCM, FFIV

Click on charts for larger views.

BRCM (30 min. view) had a nice rally after the Fed announcement. If it can break through its pivot point resistance area, it may be able to break out of this triangle pattern. We need to see some leadership from the SOX, otherwise today's gains won't have much follow through.

I was long FFIV again this morning right off the open, but now I think we really need to digest this bullish move. The chart above is a 30 minute view of FFIV's price action over the last two months and it has clearly made a solid base, but there's some negative divergence creeping into the OBV, so I'm taking a break. I'd like to see it pull back to $50.00 support area and stay there long enough to consolidate these gains.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/29/2006 11:42:00 PM 0 comments




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Thursday, June 29, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture
Today's rally resulted in a double top P&F breakout with a new preliminary bullish target of 2320 from today's close of 2174.

The entire session was bullish from this morning's gap up until noon. This was followed by a quiet period of sideways action leading into the much anticipated Fed announcement. But at 2:15 volume took off and so did price. There was no hesitation and the usual volatility following a Fed statement was not evident. Everything moved in the same direction in a very orderly fashion.

The result was a wide range bar which lifted us out our three week trading range on higher volume. The NASDAQ added 62.5 points or 3% on the session. All tech sectors participated and several including the SOX and NWX added 4% on the day. Everything on my screen was green at the end of the session except PALM which reported disappointing earnings AH and is now trading below $17.00. RIMM, on the other hand, is testing $70 after a favorable earnings report. I mentioned in my Trade of the Day post that AAPL is also down AH on unusual stock option activity. It'll be interesting to see which names can hang on to these gains tomorrow. Be on the alert for early winners tomorrow morning as we may get some more quarter end window dressing.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/29/2006 09:31:00 PM 1 comments




Trade of the Day - Apple Computer Inc. NASDAQ: AAPL
This was my best trade on the Fed announcement. Volume just took off and so did price. You'll notice that in AH trade, AAPL gave back all of its post fed gains due to an announcement concerning stock option grant irregularities.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/29/2006 08:30:00 PM 2 comments




Wednesday, June 28, 2006Watch List - ADBE, CMCSK, MCHP,
ADBE - Bullish hammer reversal bar at key support level.

CMCSK - a bullish engulfing pattern on key pivot point support despite the napping cable guy.

I hate it when the 200 MA gets in the way of a good long entry in the form of overhead resistance. However, MCHP has a lot of bullish signals in play including, John Carter's three consecutive higher closes reversal pattern, as well as, higher volume on bullish bars, and a close above the 20 day EMA.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/28/2006 09:36:00 PM 4 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture
Regular readers know that 2100 was a key support target going back to mid-May. Well now its been at least three weeks and it is still in play. So far we've closed below 2100 only on three sessions. Today's NR hammer stick could signal a reversal but everything hinges on Fed Speak tomorrow. The emphasis on Fed Speak tomorrow is all important because of the timing of quarter-end and the traditional fund window dressing that transpires at this time.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/28/2006 08:51:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - F5 Networks Inc. NASDAQ: FFIV
As discussed in last night's watch list, we were looking for FFIV to pullback to the $50.00 area which it did on the open. After testing the $50.25 -$50.50 area for most of the morning, I decided to get long for a potential gap fill. The gap was not entirely filled, but I was able to grab almost a full point by this afternoon's close.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/28/2006 07:53:00 PM 2 comments




Tuesday, June 27, 2006Watch List - NIHD, EBAY, FFIV, LRCX
NIHD's low volume bounce does not inspire confidence. Watch for a shorting opportunity on a high volume break of support.

Gbuy, Google's version of Paypal is a percieved threat to EBAY. Next major support level is $25.30.

This is a 30 minute view of FFIV. Our target of $52.50 was met today and now we should get a pullback to support - 1st level $50.00 and 2nd level $47.70.

This is a 15 minute view of LRCX. From the intrday chart, you can see that LRCX gapped up on the open but quickly fell into step with market and pulled back for the rest of the day. Watch to see if gap support (blue lines) holds in the early going. If so, LRCX could attempt to retest recent highs.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/27/2006 08:53:00 PM 4 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bears Dominate Ahead of Fed Speak
The Nasdaq carved out a wide range, bearish engulfing bar on higher volume ahead of Fed Speak on Thursday. Led by semis and the networking sectors, the NASDAQ shed 33.4 points, bringing us within 35 points of recent lows. The RSI has not been able to touch 50 during either of the last two consolidation ranges and this bodes well for the bears. Judging from today's action, we could be starting the third wave of selling.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/27/2006 07:31:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - BRCM (AMZN)
BRCM was very weak in the pre-market so I decided to short it if it took out yesterday's low. I covered into the close for a 1 pt. gain.


As noted in last night's watch list, AMZN will probably pull back to its MA on the daily view before breaking out of its base. I should have listened to myself. But no, I went long on a break of resistance at $37.20 and about an hour later I was stopped out at $37.08. After the first three bars, volume came back in and I had a strong feeling that this trade would not succeed so I kept a tight stop.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/27/2006 07:15:00 PM 0 comments




Monday, June 26, 2006Watch List - AMZN, ENER
AMZN may pull back to its MA before attempting to breakout, however, its worth keeping on the near-term watch list as it has formed a nice base and the ADX crossover is being followed by an upward move in the ADX line.

ENER looks well positioned to breakout of its three day consolidation patter but we need more volume.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/26/2006 09:36:00 PM 0 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture

The NASDAQ added 12 points on low volume to help change the blue Monday trend that has taken hold over the last few months. A quick look at the 15 minute view, shows that over the last two sessions we have had a series of higher lows and may be forming a nice bullish base. Although no tech sector made any significant gains today, most ended the session in the green. Today's NDX winners were XMSR, SIRI and CKFR. The big loser was BMET on a subpoena from the Justice dept.'s antitrust division.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/26/2006 08:02:00 PM 0 comments




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Monday, June 26, 2006Trade of the Day - CkeckFree NASDAQ: CKFR
As per last night's watch list in which I profiled three names which had just made three consecutive higher closes, I decided to play CheckFree (CKFR) because of the three, it was the only one which had breached the down trendline on a closing basis Friday. I placed two buy orders: a buy stop order above Friday's high and a buy limit order on a gap fill as it was gapping up in pre-market. Only the buy stop order was filled as the stock took off on the open on relatively high volume. My target was former support on the daily view and I exited the entire position as soon as the target was hit. CKFR traded slightly higher, but pulled back shortly after the target was met.

This setup came from John Carter's book Mastering the Trade. Three consecutive higher closes signifies a change in direction and he recommends the setup when picking bottoms and vice versa for tops. All three names on the watch list ended the day higher.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/26/2006 07:11:00 PM 0 comments




Pre-Market - PALM

PALM estimates raised at ThinkEquity ahead of quarterly results - ThinkEquity notes that PALM is scheduled to report its Q4 after the close on Thursday, June 29, and they expect the co to beat their ests. Firm also raises their ests for FY07, saying they expect two new phones to drive improved sell-out through year end. Firm strongly encourages investors to buy the stock at current levels, saying there is significant upside from here to their conservative $27 target.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/26/2006 07:51:00 AM 0 comments




Sunday, June 25, 2006Watch List - CKFR, PALM, RIMM,
Tonight's Watch List - All three names have had three successive higher closes and could be setting up to break the recent downtrend.





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Posted by Jamie at 6/25/2006 11:17:00 PM 0 comments




Canada's Oil & Energy Sectors - Merger Speculation May Keep Prices from Pulling Back Too Far
Friday's Anadarko merger news ended the third straight week of losses for Canada's energy rich TSX index.

Producers of oil and gas were the biggest gainers. EnCana Corp., Canada's largest natural-gas company, closed at C$56.35, up 2.66%. Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. rose for the fourth day in a row, climbing C$2.22, or 4.15 percent, to close at C$55.71.

Suncor Energy Inc. rose C$2.54, or 3.18 percent, to C$82.54. The world's largest oil-sands producer was raised to ``buy'' from ``hold'' by analyst Paul Sankey at Deutsche Bank, who wrote in a note that investors can expect ``sustainable long term growth.''


CNQ looks well positioned to break the downtrend line in the very short-term.

SU has some momentum with the bullish gaps, but I don't trust the move because of the low volume. Wait for a pullback or gap fill.

ECA is the most predictable of the three, because of its $50.00 pivot point.

COS.UN is the only play of the four to hold its 200 day MA through the recent downtrend.

Most of these, except COS.UN, trade on the NYSE.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/25/2006 07:44:00 PM 2 comments




Friday, June 23, 2006NASDAQ Technical Picture
We ended the week with another low volume, choppy session, and so it doesn't look too promising going into Fed Speak week. Sector wise it was a mixed bag with biotechs leading the way up versus the SOX leading the way down. LRCX, the big NDX loser, really took a tumble on no news. If we fail to hold support of the blue line in the early going next week, I'll be looking for shorting opportunities.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/23/2006 07:32:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - FFIV
When yesterday's resistance held as support early this morning, I decided to go long FFIV. I took a 50% profit after 1.2 points and I was stopped out on the balance of the position. With each spike in volume, I got long again but the rest of the day was a roller coaster. We closed at the June 2nd resistance high and I'm sure that FFIV will be on the watch list again next week.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/23/2006 05:16:00 PM 0 comments




FFIV - Intraday H&S Top?

The intraday chart of FFIV is starting to look like Head and Shoulders Top. Look at the typical volume spikes on the left shoulder formation and then again at the base of the head.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/23/2006 02:30:00 PM 0 comments




Update Again
FFIV is testing this morning's resistance as support. This test will determine if I will add to my current position or say goodbye.

Update 2:04 - The market is chopping up and FFIV is following the market. I had it on a short leash, so I was stopped out at $50.80. Now its testing mid-day support.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/23/2006 01:28:00 PM 3 comments




Update
Stopped out of FFIV at $50.64. Wading back in slowly - picked up a few shares at $50.28.

AAPL power scalp was nice too.

Today is a national holiday in Quebec so its nice to be trading from home!

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Posted by Jamie at 6/23/2006 12:57:00 PM 0 comments




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Posted by Jamie at 6/23/2006 11:08:00 AM 2 comments




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Friday, June 23, 2006Setting Up for a Weak Open
We're setting up for a weak open on the Nasdaq. However, a lot of the oil stocks are trading up in pre-market on merger news.

Here is an intraday chart of AAPL. The blue lines represent potential pivot points.



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Posted by Jamie at 6/23/2006 09:13:00 AM 0 comments




Watch List - ENER, GENZ, AAPL
ENER closed above its 10 day EMA. Next target is the 20 day EMA.


GENZ has had a low volume pullback to its upward sloping trendline. Look for it to resume the trend on higher volume.

AAPL has been trading opposite the market lately. It had a nice move today and has carved out a nice base.
I'm also still bullish on CTXS, FFIV and BRCM.



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Posted by Jamie at 6/23/2006 12:52:00 AM 0 comments




Thursday, June 22, 2006Grand Prix weekend in Montreal!

It was pretty hard to concentrate on work this afternoon as Jacques Villeneuve took his Grand Prix car out for a spin in the streets of downtown Montreal.

Tonight's watch list will be a little late as I am going out to catch some of the festivities.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/22/2006 10:24:00 PM 0 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture
The NASDAQ gave back half of yesterday's gains today. No big surprise here given yesterday's low volume. From a technical perspective, we are still in a trading range so the back and forth is to be expected. The summer effect makes it quite a bit slower and we sometimes have the impression, we aren't going anywhere. This type of trading environment calls for selective trading in order to preserve capital and avoid unnecessary commissions on low probability trade setups.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/22/2006 08:57:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - FFIV
The pre-market was weak, so I decided to adjust my trading strategy from a breakout play to a pullback play. I placed two buy orders for FFIV: one at $48.20 (first level of support on the intraday view) and a second order at $47.65 (second level of support). My plan was to get an avergae price without risking missing out onthe trade altogether by choosing too low an entry price. From the chart you can see that only the first was order was filled. I cancelled the second order and placed a sell limit order at the morning gap fill price of $49.20. It worked out very nicely.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/22/2006 08:38:00 PM 2 comments




Wednesday, June 21, 2006Watch List - FFIV, NEW, RIMM, ADBE
Last night's watch list was very bullish and three of my five picks paid off handsomely today. the two laggards, FFIV and NEW are on the watch list again for tomorrow.

FFIV did not trigger today and now we have one of my favourite setups - the three day consolidation breakout pattern. Here is the setup off of the 15 minute chart:



This setup has a very high success rate in an uptrending market. However, since that is not the case at the moment, look for a high volume breakout to keep price above $50.00 right out of the gate. The target is $52.50.
For NEW, I want to buy on a high volume break of the downward sloping trendline on the daily chart. That would roughly look ike this on the 15 view:

RIMM is trading up in after hours and could be a potential long for tomorrow if it holds $63.00 support in the early going. This is a Cramer pick so I'm a little wary. But it has carved out a nice base over the past few days so I'm posting it anyway. A lot could happen between now and the open, so I will evaluate the pre-market carefully before I execute on this one. Here is the 15 minute view of RIMM:


ADBE is trading up in AH on a multi-year distribution agreement with Google. Here is the daily view:




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Posted by Jamie at 6/21/2006 10:01:00 PM 6 comments




NASDAQ Technical Picture
The NASDAQ added 34 points and carved out a wide bar off of yesterday's spinning top (almost a bullish morning star pattern). Today was an accumlation day, however, volume was below average and this means caution. We touched the 20 day EMA on an intraday basis but couldn't hold it on a closing basis. Today's tech leadership came from internets and semis. $GIN closed above its 20 day EMA but the $SOX did not.

I'm watching the ADX oscillator closely as the -DI closes in on the black ADX line. If it bounces back up like it did in early June, it will be a bearish signal, but if it crosses down, it will leave the door open for a change in overall direction.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/21/2006 08:26:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - JCOM
I placed a buy stop order 5 cents above yesterday's high and I was filled on the open. JCOM didn't really do much in the early going, but shortly after 11:00 it started moving up very quickly. When I noticed the euphoric volume spike just before noon, I decided to exit the entire position. Euphoric volume spikes after big moves to the upside, usually foreshadow the end of the move in much the same way as a capitulation volume spike at the end of a steep move down does.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/21/2006 08:10:00 PM 0 comments




Swing Trade - BRCM
I held 50% of my BRCM position as outlined here last night. When BRCM broke resistance and used it as support, I reloaded to full share size. Going into the last part of the session, I noticed that BRCM would not be able to close above its 20 day MA on the daily chart, so I sold my enitre position.

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Posted by Jamie at 6/21/2006 08:04:00 PM 0 comments




Nice Day for the Bulls
Last night's watch list was very bullish. Today my screen is covered in green and I'm a happy bull.

Good Trading everyone!

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Posted by Jamie at 6/21/2006 12:00:00 PM 0 comments




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