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发表于 2009-3-20 11:32
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DJI (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 18 2009 11:35AM ET / Mar 18 2009 3:35PM GMT
Last Price: 7305.3
No change.
"The index has coyly poked under the 7300 mark and the blue TL, but it appears to have been only a head-fake, as back above both of these levels the Dow has yet to commit to a top. Nevertheless, we know the price parameters that should contain the action, so the simplistic approach here it to look even higher should the 7404 level be routed from the field, or as the preferred view is calling for, looking way down on a break below 7125.
"Only a hair higher yesterday than Monday’s peak, but enough to allow wave (v) of (c) of 4 to be complete, and perhaps the entire fourth-wave countertrend advance as well. We know the Fed is meeting today with an announcement about interest rates due out at 2:15. That gives the market a lot of time to think about things, so a new high cannot be ruled out since the 7404 prior fourth-wave peak has not been tested. Leave that potential open while the index remains above 7300. Otherwise, under that level and certainly under 7281, and expect that the 7197/7125 range will be seen again. I will reiterate the importance of the 7125 level once again. It is the 2.618% proportional projection in a Fibonacci matrix that stems from the 1932 low. It is real important, so we should expect to see testing and retesting typically associated with a huge number such as this. In other words, expect to see this level tested again, and if support cannot be found, that action would tell us that wave-5 of (5) was in progress. This is what is expected, but we must see a clean break in order to confirm the action.
Tom Prindaville
[email=intraday-feedback@elliottwave.com]intraday-feedback@elliottwave.com[/email]
NASDAQ (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 18 2009 11:32AM ET / Mar 18 2009 3:32PM GMT
Last Price: 1185.40
No change.
"Despite the early bullish enthusiasm, trade has turned back down and moved back under the 1188.18 subdivide. Expectations remain that the top of wave-4 is in place. We just need further evidence to fully confirm this, and as noted that would take a break of 1155.68. In the meantime, we see that the 30-minute RSI has hooked down from the same dead-reckoning technical resistance level that has capped the technical picture within this advance. If the count of five-waves up is correct, then the diverged hook down from resistance only adds to the likelihood that a lasting peak is now in place. Also, even if the larger count is proven to be wrong, odds still favor that the 1155 area will be seen again. Staying under 1188 then dropping below 1175/1173 would add immeasurably to the likelihood of at least seeing the 1155 area again, if not that the anticipated peak is indeed in place.
"The NASDAQ got up off the canvas yesterday to produce an unexpected new high, but in reality the region tested was the original 1183/1188 target zone which included the prior fourth-wave peak. Still pressuring the upside this morning however, has taken the action above the 1188 mark. Yet there are clearly sustainability issues at work here that caution about a sudden turn back down, so the wave-4 designation remains. Nevertheless, even a casual observer can see that trade wrapped itself around the important 1155.68 structural level in recognition, which if we did not know it was important before we certainly know it now. Staying above 1155 keeps the pressure on the north side with any further gains a good indication that the count not only for this leg up is wrong, but also the count down into the last pivot low as well. My sense is that this action is a bull trap that is about to slam shut. Any trade cleanly back under 1155.68 would confirm this to be the case. For today, the first action we need to see is a slip from the 1188.18 subdivide. That action would be the initial indication that wave (v) of (c) may be complete, and thus a larger five-wave move up. This is what is expected followed by a return to the 1155 area. If indeed this action is seen what the market does from there should reveal the direction of the next meaningful to significant move.
Tom Prindaville
[email=intraday-feedback@elliottwave.com]intraday-feedback@elliottwave.com[/email]
S&P 500 (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 18 2009 11:27AM ET / Mar 18 2009 3:27PM GMT
Last Price: 770.94
If we more closely scrutinize the initial wave action up within wave (v), a case can be made that the pattern started with a couple of 1s and 2s. If this is the case, instead on an irregular b-wave to form one large second-wave, then a new high could still be seen before five-waves up are in place within wave (v). Since no trendlines have been broken and the 780.12 mark has not been touched, and the fact that there remains this morning’s gap still open at yesterday’s peak, just be aware that even initial confirming action that a lasting peak is in place has yet to be revealed. Back under 768.68 the red TL is currently around 765. Make it commit.
"Trade remains under yesterday’s peak and has come back to the 768.68 subdivide. While this level is only a minor subdivide on the long-term matrix, 768.63 was the low in 2002, and the TL cuts through right here as well, so there is plenty of “stuff” here to attract, and repeal prices. Technicals reveal this action is right on TL support, so a slip from here would only add to the topping picture already noted. The red uptrend line is at 763.70, so a crack under there would be another indication that the immediate to very near-term trend has turned back down, and most likely pointed to another showdown with the 750.09 key subdivide.
"780.12 was the peak of the previous fourth-wave within wave-3 down, which was Monday’s upper extreme target for a wave-4 peak. While that level may still be seen the existing 778.12 peak would work just as well. Point is, if indeed this advance is only wave-4 then trade should not extend appreciably beyond 780.12 or the prior count is wrong. The diverged technical condition at yesterday’s new peak along with other technical trend-following patterns suggest a pivot back down is likely. Add the count that suggests a full five-waves up from the pivot low, and even if the irregular (b) wave count is wrong at the recent lows, a return to the important 750.09 subdivide is likely to be seen in any event. 750 remains the most important proportional structural level in this region, and only an impulsive drop back under this price would confirm that wave-4 was complete, and that the next leg down was in progress. With the Fed’s huddled in their smoke filled room until 2:15 today, perhaps that is when traders will begin selling the fact.
Tom Prindaville
[email=intraday-feedback@elliottwave.com]intraday-feedback@elliottwave.com[/email]
DJI (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 18 2009 11:05AM ET / Mar 18 2009 3:05PM GMT
Last Price: 7301.8
The index has coyly poked under the 7300 mark and the blue TL, but it appears to have been only a head-fake, as back above both of these levels the Dow has yet to commit to a top. Nevertheless, we know the price parameters that should contain the action, so the simplistic approach here it to look even higher should the 7404 level be routed from the field, or as the preferred view is calling for, looking way down on a break below 7125.
"Only a hair higher yesterday than Monday’s peak, but enough to allow wave (v) of (c) of 4 to be complete, and perhaps the entire fourth-wave countertrend advance as well. We know the Fed is meeting today with an announcement about interest rates due out at 2:15. That gives the market a lot of time to think about things, so a new high cannot be ruled out since the 7404 prior fourth-wave peak has not been tested. Leave that potential open while the index remains above 7300. Otherwise, under that level and certainly under 7281, and expect that the 7197/7125 range will be seen again. I will reiterate the importance of the 7125 level once again. It is the 2.618% proportional projection in a Fibonacci matrix that stems from the 1932 low. It is real important, so we should expect to see testing and retesting typically associated with a huge number such as this. In other words, expect to see this level tested again, and if support cannot be found, that action would tell us that wave-5 of (5) was in progress. This is what is expected, but we must see a clean break in order to confirm the action.
Tom Prindaville
[email=intraday-feedback@elliottwave.com]intraday-feedback@elliottwave.com[/email]
NASDAQ (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 18 2009 10:48AM ET / Mar 18 2009 2:48PM GMT
Last Price: 1181.51
Despite the early bullish enthusiasm, trade has turned back down and moved back under the 1188.18 subdivide. Expectations remain that the top of wave-4 is in place. We just need further evidence to fully confirm this, and as noted that would take a break of 1155.68. In the meantime, we see that the 30-minute RSI has hooked down from the same dead-reckoning technical resistance level that has capped the technical picture within this advance. If the count of five-waves up is correct, then the diverged hook down from resistance only adds to the likelihood that a lasting peak is now in place. Also, even if the larger count is proven to be wrong, odds still favor that the 1155 area will be seen again. Staying under 1188 then dropping below 1175/1173 would add immeasurably to the likelihood of at least seeing the 1155 area again, if not that the anticipated peak is indeed in place.
"The NASDAQ got up off the canvas yesterday to produce an unexpected new high, but in reality the region tested was the original 1183/1188 target zone which included the prior fourth-wave peak. Still pressuring the upside this morning however, has taken the action above the 1188 mark. Yet there are clearly sustainability issues at work here that caution about a sudden turn back down, so the wave-4 designation remains. Nevertheless, even a casual observer can see that trade wrapped itself around the important 1155.68 structural level in recognition, which if we did not know it was important before we certainly know it now. Staying above 1155 keeps the pressure on the north side with any further gains a good indication that the count not only for this leg up is wrong, but also the count down into the last pivot low as well. My sense is that this action is a bull trap that is about to slam shut. Any trade cleanly back under 1155.68 would confirm this to be the case. For today, the first action we need to see is a slip from the 1188.18 subdivide. That action would be the initial indication that wave (v) of (c) may be complete, and thus a larger five-wave move up. This is what is expected followed by a return to the 1155 area. If indeed this action is seen what the market does from there should reveal the direction of the next meaningful to significant move.
Tom Prindaville
[email=intraday-feedback@elliottwave.com]intraday-feedback@elliottwave.com[/email]
S&P 500 (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 18 2009 10:36AM ET / Mar 18 2009 2:36PM GMT
Last Price: 769.25
Trade remains under yesterday’s peak and has come back to the 768.68 subdivide. While this level is only a minor subdivide on the long-term matrix, 768.63 was the low in 2002, and the TL cuts through right here as well, so there is plenty of “stuff” here to attract, and repeal prices. Technicals reveal this action is right on TL support, so a slip from here would only add to the topping picture already noted. The red uptrend line is at 763.70, so a crack under there would be another indication that the immediate to very near-term trend has turned back down, and most likely pointed to another showdown with the 750.09 key subdivide.
"780.12 was the peak of the previous fourth-wave within wave-3 down, which was Monday’s upper extreme target for a wave-4 peak. While that level may still be seen the existing 778.12 peak would work just as well. Point is, if indeed this advance is only wave-4 then trade should not extend appreciably beyond 780.12 or the prior count is wrong. The diverged technical condition at yesterday’s new peak along with other technical trend-following patterns suggest a pivot back down is likely. Add the count that suggests a full five-waves up from the pivot low, and even if the irregular (b) wave count is wrong at the recent lows, a return to the important 750.09 subdivide is likely to be seen in any event. 750 remains the most important proportional structural level in this region, and only an impulsive drop back under this price would confirm that wave-4 was complete, and that the next leg down was in progress. With the Fed’s huddled in their smoke filled room until 2:15 today, perhaps that is when traders will begin selling the fact.
Tom Prindaville
[email=intraday-feedback@elliottwave.com]intraday-feedback@elliottwave.com[/email]
DJI (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 18 2009 10:14AM ET / Mar 18 2009 2:14PM GMT
Last Price: 7309.4
Only a hair higher yesterday than Monday’s peak, but enough to allow wave (v) of (c) of 4 to be complete, and perhaps the entire fourth-wave countertrend advance as well. We know the Fed is meeting today with an announcement about interest rates due out at 2:15. That gives the market a lot of time to think about things, so a new high cannot be ruled out since the 7404 prior fourth-wave peak has not been tested. Leave that potential open while the index remains above 7300. Otherwise, under that level and certainly under 7281, and expect that the 7197/7125 range will be seen again. I will reiterate the importance of the 7125 level once again. It is the 2.618% proportional projection in a Fibonacci matrix that stems from the 1932 low. It is real important, so we should expect to see testing and retesting typically associated with a huge number such as this. In other words, expect to see this level tested again, and if support cannot be found, that action would tell us that wave-5 of (5) was in progress. This is what is expected, but we must see a clean break in order to confirm the action.
Tom Prindaville
[email=intraday-feedback@elliottwave.com]intraday-feedback@elliottwave.com[/email]
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