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一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-9 09:02 | 显示全部楼层
The EURJPY is very close to a wave 2 of C peak in my opinion. This is multi-week opportunity. When this thing falls, it falls hard, and since we are entering a 3 of C (I think), then the fall should be very fast and very rewarding for those that are short.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-9 09:03 | 显示全部楼层
Looks like we have wave 5 heading back down to test the lows of last month and this month. Possibly a bounce, or a good short opportunity if it breaks through.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-9 09:04 | 显示全部楼层
Not so Quick with a Bearish outlook for USDCHF Speculator... Have a look at my wave count here for the pair I think we're heading higher.. Moving averages are confirming... In my opinion we are sitting right on a great buy right now in the pair.Attached Thumbnails
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-9 09:05 | 显示全部楼层
need help
hello together,
can someone look on my chart and tell me if I count correct? thank you for your help I appreciate that :-) I hope the picture is sharp enough it is the first time I do that ...
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-9 09:06 | 显示全部楼层
Jamie,

For what it's worth this was the chart I was working off of today.Attached Thumbnails
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-9 09:08 | 显示全部楼层
cable
I know that I might be forcing a count here. But in my opinion the direction for the next few days would be up. The reason why I think so is because of the five wave up move after breaking the leading diagonal. Also the price came down and it's testing the breakout level.

But if we close bellow that trendline I have to re-think my position.

Anyone agree ?
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-9 09:10 | 显示全部楼层
Gbp/jpy
Hey Guys,

Here's a short term trade idea for tonight. GBP/JPY looks higher from current levels (~204.00) with targets at previous highs (209.00) initially and a discretionary second target. I'll be looking to exit half my position at 209.00 and the other half once I see five subwaves completed.

I don't see an entry as of yet, but we should get one soon. I'm looking at the five minute chart for five small waves to the upside and then a pullback. Stops will be at the lows of that five wave move. And of course, if we don't see a five wave advance, then there's no setup.
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The possibility of a five down is my alternate count. With both counts, there should be at least a small move to the upside soon. My plan is to get long and then move stops to breakeven as soon as practical. Then, if price continues higher it's all good, and if it rolls over I'll get out at breakeven.

The chart below is a possibility of what could be happening now.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-9 12:57 | 显示全部楼层
USDCHF Long Setup
Looks like we can throw on a long position right now in USDCHF with good risk to reward... This chart has a lot on it... I hope everyone can follow it... Target will be the prior high at 1.0283... Stop can be placed at 1.0013.... Risk right now is about 70 pips.. Potential Gain is about 200 pips
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Hi Justy.... I'm going to bet we get a big triangle for wave 4 in GBPJPY
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-9 15:08 | 显示全部楼层
my opinion the direction for the next few days would be upAttached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 07:21 | 显示全部楼层
Justy,

I was in that frame of mind also. However, I noticed five waves down may be in the works on the M30 chart. This may change my opinion. I may wait for it to come back up then get bearish. Thoughts??Attached Thumbnails
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 07:22 | 显示全部楼层
Gbp/usd
What do you guys have for a GBP/USD count? The 50.0%/61.8% fib retracement zone is holding so far. If we can get a small five wave rally, I think I'll start looking for higher prices in what could be wave 'C' of '2.'
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 07:22 | 显示全部楼层
Justy, this count was posted in here earlier today by Jimbo......
( see chart below )
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 07:23 | 显示全部楼层
Euro
Can we witness 1.60 ?!? It sure looks like it's pushing that way in what I think is wave c of (v) of an ending diagonal.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 07:23 | 显示全部楼层
The Daily chart is a little unclear at the moment for GBPUSD, I'm leaving it alone for now.. It could go either way from here... Shorter term waves are a mess.. I have an upside bias but I'm just waiting to see if we can get across the downtrend line.... But it could plummet just as easily... Either way, just waiting for a buy on a close above the trend line or at a much lower price..Attached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 07:24 | 显示全部楼层
I think opposite to you - I see a clear bearish setup on the daily with a leading diagonal as wave 1 already formed:Attached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 07:25 | 显示全部楼层
You have more or less the same look I'm getting. Nothing impulsive about any of the moves here. Lots of 3 wave abc types. Looks like an ending ascending triangle. Now it's just how far it goes before the crash down?



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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 07:26 | 显示全部楼层
Watch EURJPY...I think that it is topping in a 2nd wave and that 3 of C is underway very soon.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 07:26 | 显示全部楼层
Exactly, none of this garbage matters. In fact, despite it, the market still exhibits patterns.

A note on the EURUSD. The rally above 1.5983 confirms that the last leg of the diagonal is underway. The limit for the diagonal is 1.6187 but 1.6069 is a potential reversal point (this is where c of 5 = a of 5).Attached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 10:35 | 显示全部楼层
Gbp Usd
Hello guys
Here is my chart for the cable. My first target is when wave 3 = wave 1, but it might go further. We will need to count smaller waves for the exact exit point.
Mike
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 10:38 | 显示全部楼层
Eur/usd
Hey Guys,

EUR/USD looks to be headed higher in the short term. So far the rallies have been impulsive and the declines corrective in all degrees. I'm looking to take a small long if price can get back down and test the 8-EMA on the 15 Minute Chart. My initial target for 1/2 of my position is 1.6050 which would be about a 50 point profit. The second target is discretionary. I'll be looking for five waves from the 1.5834 low of this morning to be completed. It looks like price is higher in a third wave from 1.5834 right now. My stop on the trade is the 1.5834 lows initially. When I'm up 50 points I'll move stops to breakeven.
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