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一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 11:03 | 显示全部楼层
Hey AT, here is an alternative count.


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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 18:13 | 显示全部楼层
Eur/usd
This is my count.....I am waiting area 15785-90 for close my shorts...
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 18:14 | 显示全部楼层
USDJPY should accelerate lower soon as per the count shown. This should help out the short EURJPY position as well...so far the EURJPY drop has been all EURO based.Attached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 18:14 | 显示全部楼层
With respect to the EURUSD. This is a potential count. Under this count the decline from 1.5870 is a 3rd wave that will extend lower quickly. However, expect a rally to end in the 1.5775/1.5815 (as wave ii of 3). Look to get short against 1.5870. I know one would argue that wave 2 is inordinately small...but this is a MAJOR turn (I think) and at major turns, markets typically do not allow many people in. I am sure there will be many traders waiting for the bigger correction before going short...but they will never get the change I could be wrong, but I see this as probable. Besides, risk is well defined.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 18:15 | 显示全部楼层
:-), Yes thanks. Using your count it looks like we could have finished 1 of 3 here and be in for 2 of 3 now. Any thoughts?Attached Thumbnails
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 18:16 | 显示全部楼层
EURUSD update

3 of 1 may be complete....the 4th wave will probably be capped by 1.5775. Then we'll get a 5th wave and a large bounce where we can sell more! Or of you are of the kind that gets out and sells at higher levels, you can try that. I am not that kind of trader though..once my position is established, there is no turning back unless of course my stop is taken out.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 18:23 | 显示全部楼层
Here is what I see for Auzzie but I don't like the fact that wave 1 is clearly 5 waves...

Comments?Attached Thumbnails
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 18:24 | 显示全部楼层
Short term look at what I think may be happening. Still keying off Jamie's chart. That's if we don't just see mid 50's right now! :-)

Anyway you cut it it looks like we are going down from 1.60.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 18:25 | 显示全部楼层
cable
Hi all

This is the count that i am working off on cable!

Anyone got the same?

regards

RAy
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 18:26 | 显示全部楼层
Hi all

this is the count i am following on the USDJPY daily.

regards

rayAttached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 18:26 | 显示全部楼层
EUR/GBP Waves
hi all

another wave count on the "tank"

anyone got the same.


regards

ray
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 18:28 | 显示全部楼层
usd/jpy
Hmm... Looks like bulls are about to have a tea party
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 18:30 | 显示全部楼层
Gbp Jpy
Hello guys;
you know that i have been following this pair for a while now.
Here is my take, further to similar chart two days ago, with the recent update.
We are still waiting for the leg C correction to play out, so far we completed wave i and ii of the C wave. It looks like we should see a value of 206.50-207 before the pair will tank.
BTW: at 206.90 leg A = leg C
Mike
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 18:31 | 显示全部楼层
Here's my take on a possible count I like in a pair that I follow. It may not be too familiar to many of you, but I think it can be a profitable pair once you get to know it. EUR/CHF.

I see strong resistance right here and what could be a completed pattern. So far resistance is holding. There is the possibility of a further breakout to the upside. However, indicators are very stretched and I believe R/R favors a short trade which I have initiated at 162.35.

This is an hourly chart.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 18:34 | 显示全部楼层
Here is my chart on cable with my comments.
Funny enough, my conclusions are identical, but some details of wave counting are different.
MikeAttached Thumbnails
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 18:35 | 显示全部楼层
I still have the feeling the next move on cable would be up to the green area on my chart. Maybe it's too agressive target but I'm sticking with that count until proven wrong, which by the way is not too far from here.

On the bright side an up move on cable will help EUR/GBP shorts
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 18:37 | 显示全部楼层
Usd/cad
Here's what may be happening in the USD/CAD - (be gentle)

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 18:38 | 显示全部楼层
Here is my updated count for the EURUSD on 15 min. I see 5 down...this should comprise the first wave of a larger decline. Probably i of 1 a of C of 4. The fibo resistance zone is 1.5783/1.5873 and the former 4th is at 1.5774. I know that wave 3 with this count is not the longest but it also is not the shortest. As of now, wave 3 is 151 pips and wave 5 is 137 pips. As long as 5 is bigger than 3, this is my preferred. If the decline extends from here without the wave 2 correction, then we'll obviously alter the count. This is why I like to get in early and let it ride....you never know when you'll get an opportunity to get back in.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 18:39 | 显示全部楼层
USD/JPY coming down?
Hey all,

I think I might have figured out how to post a chart of proper width using a Mac [pre-Intel, no less]. Anyway, the chart is my short-term count of the USD/YEN. Obviously, I am following Jamie's count, but worried about how high wave ii went.

I am open to all feedback.

cheers,

Mark
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 18:41 | 显示全部楼层
Gbpusd
Attached are charts starting from the weekly TF down to the 15min chart TF showing how I arrived at my counts. the number of charts may be too much. If the moderators find these as too much, please let me know so I can pull them down or they can remove it from their end.

EG

How's that for a start Market?
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