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发表于 2008-5-10 18:58
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Gbpusd
I know many do not advocate counting waves on charts lower than 1hour.
But I still do and it sometimes helps me.
1.9677 is the new low which I consider as the end of wave Bc5 on the Daily /4hour chart. And this rally thru the London session is the wave C31 topped at 1.9885.
Looking for a wave 2 retrace now before the potential wave C33 Rally.
Price lower than 1.9677 invalidates this count.
EG
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Gbpusd
while waiting for that wave 2 retracement to happen, I was again proven wrong in my initial count on the 5 minute chart.
Using fibs, stochastics and Divergence...... now is probably the time to wait on that retracement for wave B or 2. Then we trade the wave C or 3.
Have been burnt too many times trading the 2, 4 and B. SO will really need to wait on the impulsive waves to trade and the A and C instead of getting stuck with drawdowns again.
EG
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GBPUSD Alternative to my previous count
on this 5min chart, could this be a head and shoulder pattern indicating amove to the UPSIDE?
My wave counts on this chart I think would support an irregular wave B or 2.
A 38.2% retracement favours
1. a wave 3 in progress inside this wave C3 up or
2. a Zigzag abc
which supports the possible inverse head and shoulders that I think has broken the neckline on this chart.
Then Time-wise, I think it supports the potential to go up now too.
Technically, Wave 2 normally retraces wave 1 by 61.8%. But the range could be 38.2 to 100% of wave 1. 38.2% retracement though is often found in extended waves specially wave 3 where the market has so much adrenaline to continue heading for the main trend thus not waitng for the market to retrace to the usual 61.8%
The B on the otherhand has the Zigzag wave having a potential retracement of 38.2% - 80%
Both of which can lead to a wC=wA or a w3=w1 Projection
Looking towards Stochastics for some clue...... It would seem that the move from 1.9677 going up to 1.9885 may have been in 3 waves (although in my chart I labelled it in 5). Labelling it in 3 will not qualify for the usual maximum allowed for C to be @ FE 161.8 of A. Here it is already at FE 425 based on the RED FE tool. So this may still be a 5 wave structured A.
Then B or 2 I was expecting to retrace towards 61.8% level @ 1.9757. However, wB/2-b went higher than previous high of 1.9885. So, now I have an Irregular FLAT B or 2 which would have a wc projection of up to FE 161.8%. However, I think I see an inverse Head and shoulder pattern on the chart with more than FE 100. Then to me it is possible that B or 2 may end at this level and start moving UP very soon.
So for me, when I start getting confused with the different signals on my wave counts, I refer to other strategies and tools to help me out. Or I stay on the sidelines to watch for a clearer picture now.
EG
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-10 19:10 编辑 ] |
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) should end around wave 4 of one lesser degree or 213 area. 
