一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

I would have to agree with you somewhat, but may give it a bit more. I took a look at the 8 hour chart and see the 209.00 high from the 11 AM candle on April 18, also the 38.2 % fib at just above 211.00. I think the pair may have a challenge getting through past 211.

However if it does I see a resistance that formed around 214.00 that has not been broken since the pair dropped below this level on Jan 11. The pair is also stying within the rising channel at the moment and has not broken this either. If these supports do happen to be broken, then the it may be able to reach the 50% fib at around the 217.00 mark.

Should be interesting to see how it plays out. I am looking to short the pair around 209.00 if we do not break 210.00. On a sustained break of 210.00 I will stand aside to see if we have a failure on any of the other supports before I go short.Attached Images






Playing around with the GBP/AUD since the last time I looked I had it in a wave 4. I am unclear at the moment of how this is playing out. After the wave 3 I can only count 3 corrective waves for an abc and now a possible continuation of wave 4 with another abc, or a wave 1 and 2 and start of 3 of wave 5.

There is also the upper trend line from the Aug 16th high just above which really has me unsure of how this will play out. Staying on the sidelines until we either break above the line or bounce off it and head lower again. I may short the pair close to the trend line and set a stop above it for minimal risk, but good profit potential since the pair has been dropping by a few hundred pips on bounces off the highs.
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hefeiddd

JUST another ALTERNATIVE count for GBPUSD
BELOW is another wave count I am watching.

JUST a heads up for another possible count if price bounces off from below 2.0024.

WAVE counts on my smaller TFS seem unclear to me so I go up to higher TFs to find direction. HERE on the 4hour chart I see a move up possibly in 5 waves in the lower TF then a retracement that may qualify as wave 2, then a new move up. However, this move up seem to be loosing steam based on the long wicks of these candlesticks on the 4hour chart and the possibility ofthe candle closing under that possible trendline.

THEN looking at stochastics, a signal cross has occured although this has not crossed back thru the 80 line yet. SO to me I will watch for this if ever it unfolds and if it does fall thru that trendline.... potential support may be seen @ 1.9862 which may be the end of the wave4 inside a LEADING DIAGONAL wave 1.

with still 2.0659 as possible end to this wave C on the DAILY chart, this leading diagonal triangle should end right below previous high of 2.0024 to qualify as wC1.

AGAIN.... this is just a possible count to watch for.

EG
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hefeiddd

AUDCAD Reversal
It looks like we should see some downside in AUDCAD after a retracement higher... There are Five waves down on the Hourly Chart and a Wave "A" Retracement so far.. Can't say I would be too interested in selling this pair as it has been in a nice up trend for a while... But I will deffinately have interest in buying this pair at lower levels...
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hefeiddd

Usd/jpy
a short updated chart on USDJPY.
one more leg down, then we will see a correction.
Mike
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hefeiddd

EURCHF Turning Down ?
EURCHF has created a dark cloud cover candle pattern right on the underside of 61.8 Support... Looks like price could rollover from here...
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hefeiddd

EURCHF 30 min Chart
Looks like we've got 5 waves down and 3 waves back on the 30 min chart of EURCHF...
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hefeiddd

Eurjpy
See how beautifully those two lines cross exactly at last week's top. In addition, you've got a bearish cross and a bearish reading in the bollinger bands. Looks bearish to me.
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hefeiddd

Eur/gbp
Hi to everyone!

I'm the new to this forum, but have been watching it for some time now.
Thanks for everybody for sharing great ideas and also for constant teaching.

Now let me try
EUR/GBP. Very short term.
5 min chart.

After the last two about equal fives down (picture 1) and also combined with the 32% of the last 5 up (0,7403 - 0,8096), the first 5 up on the small time frame is about to be completed (picture 2).

Let's see what would be then the next move down...
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hefeiddd

Update on EURCHF from last night..
Price moved in my favour from the post last last night on EURCHF... This is just an update..
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hefeiddd

AUDCAD Update from Yesterday
It looks like AUDCAD has found the wave "B" bottom I was looking for... It went a little deeper than I expected .. but not much .. I am expecting a rally in this pair soon...
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hefeiddd

A possible bullish count for the EUR/GBP? I can count 5 up to complete a possible wave 1 which would now put us into a wave 2. I don't expect it to go to high and I have a short entry waiting around .8000 until I see how this plays out.

With the EUR and the GBP both declining I was expecting a bearish count so I think I might have an incorrect count somewhere along the line.
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hefeiddd

Audusd
Here is my updated count on the AUDUSD. While not a "true" divergence because price did not go lower than the wave 3 low, it could still be applicable. (I do not know enough about wave 5 failures).

The other scenario (chart 2) is that today's double bottom is B, and the move up will complete C and wave II.

chart 1


chart 2

hefeiddd

here is my super bearish eurusd count. i prefer the count that has a wave 2 top at 1.5694 (see this morning's techs to understand why). Therefore, a series of 1st and 2nd waves is leading to the eurusd coiling up for a BIG wave 3 down that probably doesn't start until tomorrow...given that the fed concludes their 2 day meeting tomorrow.
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hefeiddd

EURGBP is headed down until we have reason to believe that it is not (5 up). You can see that resistance is strong at today's high from fibo resistance. The next level is the congestion zone designated by the 2 black horizontal lines (.7937/54). The trend is considered bearish as long as price is below .8047 but price shouldnt come close to this level.Attached Images

hefeiddd

EURUSD 4th wave correction
EurUsd looks like it's in a 4th wave correction on the 4 hour chart ...
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hefeiddd

usd/jpy
It's possible that this is what occuring with USD/JPY right now.
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hefeiddd

It fells some what intimidating posting charts being new to EW.

I have followed you and others and I know the simple rules. I was wandering if the chart I posted here is accurate. the reason being you say it maay go to 9377. that unfortunatly negate my whole count. Please let me know what you think. ( nicely please)

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hefeiddd

Gbpusd
SILENCE on the CABLE?

I got a BIG DRAWDOWN from yesterdays move down. I took the risk and entered a LONG trade breaking some of my own rules which can be very costly in the long run. BUT I am still holding on to it as I see possible partial or total recovery nearby.

I just realized that JAMIE"S count on the CABLE is very bearish having what I considered as only an abc from 2.0024 down to 1.9677 as a LEADING DIAGONAL wave 1. So there is a big chance I am wrong with my BULLISH count.

HOWEVER..... I still remain bullish on this not until around 1.9500 .

TO me... CABLE may just have expanded with my new proposed count on the chart...

THIS is how I see CABLE. I may be taking so much risk on my trade. SO trade what you see on your own charts.

EG

PS> sorry I pulled down the previously posted charts because that was from an old chart count. ATTACHED now are the ones I am referring to in my alternative or my current count.
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hefeiddd

Or could it be this? Have you considered this count?Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Hi Fla,

You shouldn't feel intimidated to post your charts ... we're all in here to learn from each other.

It's always good to have alternate counts. I don't recall setting 0.9377 as a target. Texas also posted a few different alternatives a few posts back. Check them out.

The second chart is a compressed screenshot of the count I am folowwing from the 0.9403 high registered on 04/28. As you can see, the blue trend line was broken, which probably means the correction has further to go. If 0.9357 price level is violated, then I will have to find an alternate count.

My targets were 0.9280 and 0.9250. I still believe these targets are possible. My stop is now at break-even above 0.9357.Attached Thumbnails