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一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-11 18:21 | 显示全部楼层
AUDUSD wave i of III complete
Here is what may be happening with this pair.

I have a current target for wave ii of III at .9372. (the 38.2% retracement is .9367) However, being a wave ii it is possible that it could retrace all of wave i that starts at .9473 before starting wave iii of III down but I do not think the chances are good of going much past my target.

Comments welcome.

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-11 18:22 | 显示全部楼层
here is my chart, sorry had trouble uploading
mikeAttached Thumbnails
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发表于 2008-5-12 01:21 | 显示全部楼层
:*19*:
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-12 06:40 | 显示全部楼层
Texas,
We are all learning, so do not be intimidated and i do not claim to be any smarter than anybody else on this forum. Quite the opposite; i am always trying to learn from other guys and this forum is great for that.

I will attach a bigger time frame 1hr chart for AUDUSD and try to decipher your numbering system.
My numbers are totally conservative; if i were aggressive i would show the current iii as a secondary iii and make wave 5 much longer, but i will stay with my conservative wave count until proven the opposite.

Now, to answer your questions:
- wave 2 is usually ABC (or double ABC)
- triangle are found usually in wave 4 or B, so presence of a triangle is a pretty good tell tale sign that we are dealing with wave 4.

MikeAttached Thumbnails
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-12 06:40 | 显示全部楼层
usd-jpy
HI all
can we make this account for this pairs or what is ur opinion

thank u
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-12 06:41 | 显示全部楼层
Looks like we just completed 5 waves up on the 5 minute charts. I rarely go this low in time frames but thought I would give it a shot.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-12 06:42 | 显示全部楼层
Catching 5th waves can be difficult sometimes but focus on the big picture. The USDJPY count that treats the rally from 95.72 as a 4th wave is valid as long as 107.20 is intact. There is a 50% fibo at 105.18 as well as a congestion zone. Short term, an ending diagonal may be unfolding from 102.67.Attached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-12 06:43 | 显示全部楼层
Prepare for a 3rd of a 3rd in the EURUSD. As long as price is below 1.5643, this is my count. Objectives are at 1.5230 and below 1.50. Resistance should be strong up to 1.5540
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-12 06:44 | 显示全部楼层
Finally, the EURJPY....that trendline comes in near 162.50 (just shy of it actually). Risk is tight at 163 and the downside is enormous....eventually below 149 but a shorter term objectives are at 160.25 and 158.50.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-12 06:47 | 显示全部楼层
Here is another possible count.Attached Thumbnails
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-12 06:47 | 显示全部楼层
cable
Here is an update for cable from yesteday. If my count is correct then we can expect the price to accelerate in wave 3 of (C) and break through the resistance hopefuly during the NFP.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-12 06:48 | 显示全部楼层
Here is a possible count for NZDUSD ...Attached Thumbnails
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-12 06:49 | 显示全部楼层
This is probably a wierd count, but it's a possibility ... a Leading Expanding Diagonal ... Time frame is daily USDJPY.Attached Images






Correction ... had waves W and X swapped.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-12 06:50 | 显示全部楼层
One more thing before nfp....there is an unothodox trendline at today's high
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-12 06:52 | 显示全部楼层
Aud Usd
Good Morning all:
Here is my chart for AUDUSD, i will count those subminuette waves in c (there must be 5) before I short the pair, but this will be my intention for the time being.
Once I see those 5 tiny waves, I will short; but it might be a complex correction (double zig zag), so I will put a tight stop, around 20 pips.
Mike
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-12 06:53 | 显示全部楼层
St,

here is an alternative to my count. It could be that or what market posted above as an update to my original count

There is a little doubt in my mind that cable is in some sort of correction but what type it is I can only guess. And until it's over we'll keep getting those crazy movements up and down.Attached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-12 06:54 | 显示全部楼层
Audcad
Update on short term AUDCAD... Short term trend remains downward... Waiting for completion of Correction...

Hopefully you are doing better with this one still Gizmo
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-12 06:55 | 显示全部楼层
possibility
what I am currently looking at with my crazy drunken friend Mr. Cable (9622 must hold)
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-12 06:55 | 显示全部楼层
Usdjpy...
Maybe we have a poosability here.... WEEKLY USDJPY
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-12 06:56 | 显示全部楼层
usdchf
hey guys

Target met, updated chart from last week on the dailys..

wait for the pull back now to get long again. i guess 104 would be a good area to get long against 10280.

Good weekend all.


Ray
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