一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Hello Italm
Thank you for the detailed answer about GBPCHF.
I follow my own count, which is in a way similar to your rationale.
I will present some numbers:
wave a from 1.9376 to 2.0337 = 961 pips
wave b down to 1.9587 = 750 pips
wave c up to 2.0489 = 902 pips
Total wave A from 1.9364 to 2.0489 = 1125 pips

wave B =\down to 1.9927 = 562 pips

wave C up, assuming .1125 pips in length from 1.9927 = 2.1052

We didn't quite reach that number, but we were within 50 pips.
Now, graphically, it looks like the pair follows some trendlines. Please see below.
Further, the last formation (in red lines) looks like an ending diagonal with an throw over.
To me, once we cross the lower trade channel (blue support line), I will enter.
We are close to that point now. Incidentally, it will be around 2.06

MikeAttached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Gordon, Big Mike, Italm,


Absolutely onboard with this!!!! Excellent setup with low risk. Setup looks really clear (ecspecially on the hourly).

Good Luck,

TomAttached Thumbnails






Hey Mike,
I too am waiting for an entry on the GBP/CHF but unfortunately (or fortunately..who knows), I have yet to get a concrete sell signal. Because were looking for such a large position to a new low target, Im looking as a daily chart to provide me with the sell signal. Just like the Eur/CHF, I havent seen one yet. I was short Eur/Chf yesterday but have since closed out the trade with a small profit. I immediately turned my attention to the Aussie and lo and behold, so far so good. As far as GBP/CHF, I still fully expect it to reach my reversal zone of 2.1000 to 2.1200. Unfortunately, we can only be sure of a top below 2.06. Hopefully, we did not top and well get a chance at a good entry. As far as Im concerned, were still in wave 4. Keep your eye on weekly stochs, when that converges, chances are we have a top in place. Hopefully, well get a daily signal in the reversal zone first. Patients is a virtue. Im letting the trade come to me instead of telling the market when to top.

This is the weekly chart. The 2 red lines is the reversal zone. how did I get it? the top is is 38.2% of wave 3. The bottom line is where wave C is 100% of A.Its that simple. Also, notice the 21 moving average is right in the zone. For now, Im sitting on my hands. When and if we get into this zone, Ill be extra vigilant for an entry. Until then, if we dont, Ill only be bearish below 2.06.
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hefeiddd

Gbp Chf
When I look at a shorter time frame, 30 min in this case, GBPCHF is making a case for short.
But I am still waiting to see a more convincing proof, as per my comments on the chart.
Mike
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hefeiddd

Possibly but not sure how far in this decline. Looking at the dailies, it looks to me like a wave 4 correction. We have already passed the 38.2% fib on the way to the 50% line.

My wave 1 top comes in just below this at 1.1598. Anything below that and I will have to change my chart count. I patiently wait to see what Brad has to say with this pair since he seems to have it pegged right.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Thank you market for your count along with texas pipster.

Last night I was reviewing the count from the high because I could only see 3 waves from the high. When you zoom in on the 15 and 5 minute, it's 3-waves after 3-waves overlapping each other from the high as well.

So I have concluded (despite my bias) that we have unfolded in a correction since 1.0600s.

I tried every possible scenario but always came up with a short 3 wave or a 4th wave that went deep into wave 1 territory, even with a couple irregulars.

So here is my count now, apologies for the small chart.

On a side note this new wave up, you have 5 waves up but I still can't see a clear impulsive...so I favor that this is a wave B.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Nzd Jpy
There is a possibility that the correction in NZDJPY is finished.
Heads up, for now.
I will monitor the situation and watch for 5 waves down, followed by 3 waves up before I short it.
Mike
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hefeiddd

the top is the tremendous resistance we have at .9500 as well as the bearish engulfmet forming on the daily. That is a major sell signal for those who may have mssed today's move or are simply more conservative traders.

P.S
Because Im so bearish Aussie right now and somewhat bullish Yen, I managed to put in a sell order on AUD/JPY as well at 99.50...almost the top there as well. Score another one for Ellioticians!Attached Thumbnails





Hey Guys,
Heres a heads up on the Eur/Gbp. Possible iii of 3 or C coming up.
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hefeiddd

USD/JPY. Correction, correction.....
4 hr chart:


hourly chart, more correction

I can't count an impulsive decline from 105.72. A possible 5 wave decline is unfolding from 105.58. But I believe that it's part of a flat correction. This pair could have one more leg up before the big selloff.

hefeiddd

Eurcad
EURCAD has peirced the up trend line warning us to have patience before taking on a long position.. We're about to close the Day in about 15 mins or so, and it looks like price is firmly rejecting the lows... It is a possability that the up trend line may need to be moved a little lower if price turns around and heads higher.. I have found this to be true many times in the past..
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hefeiddd

I say we are getting close to the bottom, but be careful... Let the opportunity present itself Attached Images

hefeiddd

EURUSD 30 Minute
AdvancedGET count on todays drop in the EURUSD.

The wave 4 target (yellow elipse) is not static. It will move as bars are added. The PTI number, when greater than 35, indicates wave 5 should exceed wave 3 (ie not fail/truncate). This number will also change as bars are added.

hefeiddd

Hey Mike,
Well I wish price would have reacted the way we would have wish it to but I guess thems the breaks. Now all we could do is analyze whats give to us. If your strictly a momentum traders, you have to be bearish based on daily momentum clearly being down. We got a bearish candle as well to finish the day. However price action from the top looks corrective so far. The only thing I could see is the hourlies being oversold. Maybe once they begin to correct themselves, well see a strong push to the upside based on weekly momentum still being bullish. Something just doesnit seem right about this decent. I will not make any sudden moves until tomorrow mornings rate decision. For now, as far as I concerned, were still in wave 4.Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

AUDUSD count ...
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hefeiddd

Gbpjpy
Thinking about taking my long positions off real soon if this decline wants to accelerate... It looks like there is enough momentum there to take it down further....
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hefeiddd

Possible USDJPY count ...
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hefeiddd

Possible USDCHF count ...
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hefeiddd

Usd/Chf
Have a look here .......
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hefeiddd

Market just to be clear...i've highlight what I think are corrective in red and impulsive in blue from your chart..what do you think?
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hefeiddd

I know that my count is bearish as long as price is below 1.5643 but I am taking some off here. For one, the pair is coming up on major levels and it is unlikely that the EURUSD is going to drop right through and continue on lower on the first test. Second, there is event risk tomorrow with Trichet that is bound to cause a lot of noise.
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hefeiddd

The USDJPY may finally (maybe just maybe) be ready to continue its larger downtrend.
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