一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

BM,

I think the 154.20 & 1.5490 areas are important now for the following:

The corrective waves within the upward ABC have been so far very shallow. They never even got close to a .382 of the preceeding leg. If this morning's high is not taken out on this attempt it looks from a EW form standpoint that we would have to go down to around the 1.5409 area to complete a .382 correction of A. That would be B with C to possibly follow. On the otherhand IF this morning's high is taken out it would look like we are off to the completion of C straight away. Which would mean that my labeled a was a finished B.

With the 30 MINUTE getting somewhat overbought here it just may be that the next leg is indeed the c of B that I'm talking about.

As it stands at this moment a=c OF B at 1.5407 or so which is the .382 ret of my labeled A.Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Diver
Here is the count that I follow; I believe that it is in essence identical to yours, at least we both agree on the correction, firstly that it is not finished and, secondly that it will take us to about 1.555
Incidentally, wave C will be roughly equal to wave A at around 1.555, so it is making some sense.
But, as always, lets count those subminuette waves, as the develop. In the last wave "c" we should see distinct 5 waves.
MikeAttached Thumbnails







Usdjpy #7094
My proposed count on this pair has been altered a little:
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hefeiddd

Chakow,

Here are two counts by AdvGET. The first is the default method but I started the count at the bar indicated. The second is an alternate count method which is considered a more aggressive counting method. I don't know exactly what that means yet but the only thing that really changed was the targets which could have been because it took all the bars into consideration because I didn't start it on one particular bar.

Btw, I prefer the alternate count targets because the PTI of 38. Historically, PTI's < 35 end up with 5th wave failures or double tops (with wave 3).

Good luck with your trade.

TP



------ Alternate ------

hefeiddd

USD / Yen
Ok, I've been trying to catch the top of this pesky pair looking for a resumption of the downtrend to complete Wave 5 which should drop to 95 (bottom of Wave 3) and close to 90 unless truncation occurs. After our big impulsive move on Friday, I could 5 waves down with extensions for 9 waves as Preachter refers to, and now I'm looking for 3 waves up in a correction before plunging again. I'm thinking that the 1.618 retracement will contain the correction at 103.77. Thoughs anyone?
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hefeiddd

Swissy Count
TP,

I have a similiar count and found the 3 wave correction from the bottom of Wave 3 looks to have ended at the 1.618 fib. There could easily be a bounce back to test the channel trendline, but I think we are headed well below 0.965 to complete Wave 5.

This is exactly what your charts are showing as well......I think Jamie has a completely different analysis pointing to a push clear up to 1.10...

I am using Adv Get Charts, but I don't have the EW package....it's something like $3500 and I thought I would try to master the principles first.
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hefeiddd

Usdchf Daily
Here's what may be happening....

hefeiddd

Audusd Daily
Here is what may be happening.... (this would agree (I think) with a chart market posted early last week for a higher wave 5 finish)

hefeiddd

ZG,

Here is a 4 hour chart from the start of the ABC correction. There is another extension off AB that indicates a higher target for the end of wave 4 up.

If price falls through the Elipse, I would tend to agree that the larger wave 4 was over and we had begun wave 5 down.

hefeiddd

Market, you asked the question, YOU read the manual I emailed to you yesterday.

When I get back in town on the 22nd, I will post follow up charts to the ones I have posted today. We'll be able to compare what the market did to what these charts indicate it MAY be doing. (just like yours indicate "what MAY be happening")

As far as "recommendations", here are two examples of buy setups. 1) XTL breakout right at the beginning of wave 3, and 2) Type 1 buy signal at the end of wave 4. Whether a person takes these and where one would place his stop, that is personal money managment, right??? Some might go long right at the elipse in wave 4, some might wait for a regression channel breakout.

What style work best for YOU???

TP

hefeiddd

Bullish EurUsd Count
Is this count possible? Please comment
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hefeiddd

Hi there Gordon.. Here is a short term count for EURUSD.. Price usually goes the way it opens and we can clearly see that there was a downward gap in price over the weekend... So my guess is, EURUSD goes a little lower before we start heading higher again .. I believe we are now in a wave "C" down, when this downward wave terminates, I expect price to continue higher in a larger Wave 3..Attached Images

hefeiddd

I MOST CERTAINLY DO NOT! I don't know what your talking about.
BTW, Possible ending diagonal on Eur/USD for all those dollar bulls like me!Attached Thumbnails






Hey Adian, I use the the three wise men to tell me where I am. Once they give me the signal to be a bull or a bear, I look at smaller charts to get me in. I did go short at 1.5467 with a stop at today's high 1.5488. My risk is 21 pips. whats my reward?



BTW, for those following Aussie from since my post last week on the possible wave 5 truncation, I do believe we just entered III of 1 down at the break of today's low.
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Hey guys, it might be time to start looking to short Euro again. Heres an update of my ending diagonal short trade setup I placed about an hour ago. Not bad for a Sunday night!
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hefeiddd

Here is an alternative to the immediate bear count that could surprise tothe upside. The timescale is hourly. An E or 5th wave up in the overall correction could challenge 1.60xx. I agree with the EWI sentiment that there are too many bearish calls right now, even though another small leg down is possible.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Here you go...off to bed for me.

hefeiddd

Not much has changed since the last time I wrote regarding my strategy. I'm still bearish the dollar and am short the USD/CHF and USD/JPY and have a small long position in the EUR/USD. Attached is an 8hr USD/CHF chart that shows a large wave (4) completed, and wave (5) down underway right now to a new low. This chart is the best for the overall dollar picture.

American-T
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Now here's a chart of the USD/JPY which is extremely bearish from what I can see. On top of what the USD/JPY chart shows by itself, the stock market also appears to have rolled over and may be on its way to new lows as well. So the stars are lining up right for this trade. Notice that price has broken previous lows and closed beneath them on the daily chart I posted below. It's also possible to count the correction complete from the low a few weeks ago. Also notice that during the entire correction, the stochastic failed to confirm new highs in price (see orange lines) creating a bearish divergence in momentum. This weak momentum is typical in bear market rallies, not in a resumption of bull trends. Lastly, the daily stockastic is trending down very nicely, and very strong (see circle and green arrow) so momentum now is to the downside.

This pair should be on its way to a new low.

American-T
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hefeiddd

In order to be heavily bearish the dollar as I am, I feel I must come up with a way for the EUR/USD to be bullish then. So I created a wave count to fit my outlook. I know this is subjective, and not that pretty, but it is possible. One thing I find really supportive of this wave count is the fact that the pair found solid support at the 38% retracement level almost to the exact pip, on a closing basis. By respecting retracement levels, it tells me that it's....well, a retracement, a correction, and not a change in trend.

We'll see. Under this count, a new high in the EUR/USD is warranted.

I'll try to post something here at least once a week. Most of my time is being spent on trading the stock market and looking for a time to re-enter my short metals positions.

Regards,

American-T
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hefeiddd

Thanks. Another view on the 15 min. short term chart.



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hefeiddd

Cable this Monday
First target of 1.9443 has been achieved when Price dipped to 1.9442 during the early period of London Open.

Looking at the 15-60min charts, it is possible that this could be the reversal level I have been waiting for.

EW wave count wise, this is within the guideline of corrective waves within corrective waves.

Harmonic/Pesavento Patterns, this is also within the range where a Potential Bullish Reversal is outlined by a Bullish Pattern on the 4hour chart.

Momentum-wise ..... 5min to 4hour readings are all oversold.

Divergence on the 5min, 15min 30min, 60min and even the 4hour charts.

EG
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hefeiddd

Well, it appears overnight we had that correction to the 1.618 fib. Here's my chart updated. Looking for another 5 waves down from 103.87. I set my risk tollerance a bit higher on the short from 103.80 up above 104.50...Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Possible CHF count on the 30 minute chart.
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