一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Well, cable still looks pretty strong to me, so I'm still playing it from the bull side. Plenty of time to get on board if/when it turns.....
Break out of wedge, tight bol bands suggesting a momentum move ard the corner, macd CROSS, etc....
2.0106 is the sept 92 high, and to me that remains the big lvl on the topside.
Euro currently stalling at the 1.3668 lvl - the dec 04 high. If that goes (I think 3750 is on the cards), no reason for cable not to retest the recent high.
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hefeiddd

Same view as yesterday 4 me.. still long on cable, looking 4 retest of highs and then beyond. Same lines in play as yesterday's chart, plus watching 4 break of resist line ard the 60 area.
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hefeiddd

Also watching the $ index, for indications as to how far the $ weakness shud continue this time ard.
Watching the extension levels for the 61.8% correction shown.
AB=CD would come in ard 80.41
The Dec 04 lows were 80.48

Think I'll start looking for a $ base ard these sort of lvls.
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hefeiddd

Yep, some of those longs were mine. lol!

Below 950, and I will be looking for a 1:1 and the "C" to reach the 880 area.
(a tad below your 38.2)
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hefeiddd

Looks like a squeeze going on with the recent longs covering.

Pretty fast move so I'm currently thinking about 9930 just above the .382 as a target for the 2.0057 spot shorts and will be looking to cover and reverse long around that level for a ST bounce, downside is protected by the 9940 put.

GBPJPY also looking vulnerable in my view as USDJPY is going to meet offers coming into the previous 119.87 high up to 120.00

I'm currently spot short on GBPJPY @ 237.84 from yesterday, still targeting 233.40 and then 220's further out but will need equities to come off the highs and some risk aversion back in the markets for that to materialise.
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hefeiddd

Hi Andy, I'm not very good at that

Morning all,

Well I'm not sure where we are going from here, US GDP seems to be the number everyone is waiting for to give the clue as to the next USD leg up or down,

I'm currently spot long on cable @ 9884 but not a lot of conviction on the direction, If I'm honest it's more of a punt but my thinking is the 50 fib will hold at least until the numbers,

How's everyone else playing it ?Attached Images

hefeiddd

I'm still on the contrarian side.

Despite the low headline GDP the inflation element is still higher, The Fed still have their hands tied and can't yet talk about lowering rates.

Cable currently holding around the .618 fib from the 2.0132 high to this mornings 1.9864 low, and I'm still looking at that divergence on the weekly chart, this weeks candle is going to give us a hanging man.

Also Swissy still respecting that TL.

Will hold short but have put stop at 2.0067 above the stall level earlier in the week.

Anybody else long or short ?
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hefeiddd

Out of cable long at 90, as the minimum 0.618 retracement target of the 1:1 has been reached.

Look again post the numbers. :-)
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hefeiddd

G'day all....
Nice return on those shorts....
My perspective is still from the long side. Have taken a couple from the 0.618 fib mentioned friday but haven't held them for much... Too much congestion of my MA, and indicators. But looking for a base area from here down to 1.9900 area. Break of thast trend line, and will start thinking of bigger fib corrections of the move off the 1.96 low
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hefeiddd

Nice trade away from the supp line. And now a 0.382 retracement move in place.
0.382s tend to have great extension tgts, right up to the 4.236 extn(shown as black lines on the chart). Just need to clear through the pivot, and previous highs at the 61 lvl, and it should be an easy ride. ;-)
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hefeiddd

Nice 0.382/4.236 move now complete, profits taken... Really well behaved formation!
Wud expect it to trade off a little from these sort of lvls. Looking for fib retracements to get back in, or will re-enter on the break higher...
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hefeiddd

Stop hit on rejection of the 1:1........ small change.
Looks like this is in a horizontal triangle, 1:1 suggests a "B" is in, and shud expect a "C" to follow....

Anyone at all interested in any of this?
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hefeiddd

hefeiddd

Dunno yet if the "C" is in place and complete, but the trade away from the 0.618 extension, which coincides with the 0.786 retrace of the AB move, makes it well worth the go.. Stops below the 0.618 extn lvl, as that wud imply that "C" is still underway....
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hefeiddd

So, the move off the "A" lows failed on the retest of the trendline. This co-incided with a 0.382 fib retrace of the move off the 2.0073 high....
Looks like a "c" of "C" down underway, which shud hit the I:1 ard 1.9805, which is also the 0.618 of the prior impulse wave.....
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hefeiddd

Here is a good arguement for the technical/fundamental outlooks. I'm tempted to go long GBPUSD around 1.9860 because of crisp risk/reward on the range (we did recommend it on our daily range trader). However, spot around this level has come just after a strong ISM report and follow-through breaks arecommon after big indicators (even this is backed up by price action alone with the solid slide that began on the 1.9950 turn).

Furthermore, from a fundamental perspective, implied volatility has consistently risen before NFPs. This could encourage the perspective that short orders will be limited as big money avoids a potential false break and options traders protect barriers.

I think this is a little risky for my blood given spot and market conditions. I have limit short orders on NZDUSD and AUDUSD if they break anyways, so I shouldn't add to possible dollar exposure when we still have such choppy conditions.
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hefeiddd

Looks like it isn't a day to argue with him! :-)

Not the best set of numbers for the $...

My current thinking is that "C" is in on the failed test of the .5 fib. Therefore long for the "D" leg up.....Attached Images

hefeiddd

I am with you that the decline from 2.0071 is a C wave but since the decline today came under 1.9846, we have to rule out the triangle possibility - therefore - there can not be a D wave. I believe that wave C is still in progress. The decline from 2.0071 is impulsive which leads me to believe that the current rally is corrective. Remaining below 1.9945 would suggest that a small triangle is unfolding. Rallying above 1.9945 would complete an irregular flat (this is the one that is labeled a-b-c). The C wave seems likely to extend to the 100% extension at 1.9804 or the 161.8% extension at 1.9639.Attached Images

hefeiddd

4 hrs could shed some light
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hefeiddd

GBPUSD looks to be hugging support on a very distinct penant. Often times this evolves into a continuation formation, but that would conflict with a longer-term falling trend channel. And, I always give right of way to the formations on higher time frames. That being said, since there are no major technicals coming out for the next 24 hours, we could see the top of the flag break to the upper node of the falling channel around 1.9850/70.

While this would could be a quick, high-prob pop, I would not pursue it because the risk reward isn't attractive enough. On the other hand, if we can get some overnight greenback interest, a move through that 38.2% at 1.9825 could spur a significant move - perhaps to 1.9775 or 1.9715. That's where I will be looking, but if it happens anytime in the next day, it will most likely come on the Asian session or early euro session so I will have to put a limit order in.
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Looks like the 2 low is in and now moving to the 3 high due about 17:00 New York time.
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