一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

last impulse before reversa or what Hello
i try to find where the cable may go before it may reverse

My comment about Cable as i see from these 2 pictures thatwe are in the
5th wave of impulse which may be impulse or ending diagonal
but still i feel this picture not clear in my mind


plz see attachment
And wishing to see comments about it

Regards
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hefeiddd

Looks like the scenario I proposed yesterday is beginning to take hold. GBPCHF is down hard and EURGBP is up. Look to enter shorts in GBPAUD near 2.3676 chart below).Attached Images







please comment !!
Hey guyz , I don't think that carry trades are out of play , I think we're in a correcting pattern after an impulse wave has passed leaving the techs to play for a correcting abc wave , please comment on what you see, GOODLUCK

hefeiddd

Be careful with longs here, especially now. I mentioned Friday that there is the possibility of a rally towards the 2.0300 area (ending diagonal line) but that a push through 2.0131 would satisfy minimum expectations. That push has happened and it is in the 5th wave position. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a top put in place this week. The next big move should be in a large correction back to 1.8515 +-.
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hefeiddd

Weekly view Hello
i posted here 2 charts of Cable because now cable at 26 yrs high and at the same time the technical picture not clear at least for me
So i need some comments about these charts to try find a clear vission

i will Add my Comments as a Qs::

1/if we look at the RED count Did we finish the 5th wave @ price 2.0103 and we allready started the long term correction 2 weeks ago ?!

2/if we look at the orange count did we finish the 5th orange wave also at the same price and date where the red 5th wave has finished and now the price in the leg (b) in the Violet Flat ??!!

3/ there is another Extream count and this count suggest that we still in the wave 3 inside the orange (5th wave !!!!)

waiting your comments
Regards
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hefeiddd

3rd weekly view
weekly Cable view
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hefeiddd

Yes, perhaps maybe just creating a new buying opportunity for accumulation near term

fair value comes in around 9850 ish

Guess will have to see USDX for true direction sentiment of bulls and bears
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hefeiddd

Not so sure this is GBP futures with monster swing plotting W5, maybe a time cycle square between 2 points calling for aug 9th


GBP sure loves 50% retracements

last one is all cleaned up, can almost set your watch by the levels its picked NO

heavy volume heavy OI this is being bought and hard on major levels, BUT time is running out so it needs to gain some legs and quick me thinks, aug 9th or there abouts it will become a sell for shake out or MT reversals.

Should this trend stay in tact LT that feb 27th 08 blue line could become the trine hi point if not will be the lo point. Hard tellin not knowing such an irrational market
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hefeiddd

Some factors Affecting Cable Hello every body
i Have some points to discuse about Cable

1/ COT Report Shows that the pair is extremly bought = Reversal sign

2/ if we look to Elliott wave analysis in the attached chart it calls for that 5th wave allready end and we are now play in the corrective wave ( which by coincidence started with a flat or Double three structure and this structure may make us confused that we still in impulsive wave ) = reversal sign

3/ Failure to increase interest rates this month would risk damaging credibility, but a decision to increase rates when the economy is already slowing would risk a very sharp slowdown in growth later in 2007 = -ve for Pound= Reversal sign NB this point is copied as it is from a site concerns about fundamental issues

4/ Divergenc on weekly and daily charts

5/ Delta time reversal points ((i mean here Delta phenomenon)) shows that we are at a reversal point = Reversal sign


So Any comments

Thnx in advance

Regards
Ahmed
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hefeiddd

Currently holding shorts .0197 covered all lower shorts from the other day and also looking for that 32-50 area for some adding. Sell is the word for cable near term
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hefeiddd

A test of the lo on lo volume in europe session not good for shorts, the massive selling was prolly bought back already
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hefeiddd

4hr TF
Looks like the 4 hr charts are showing oversold conditions and coming very close to the zero line on Double Woddies CCI. Will we get a reject to power up? The daily has now given sterling enough room to for another upward move.
Could NFP be the juice we need to drive Cable up?
These 4 Hr candles that spike high then spike low appear to be a signal precursor to large moves.



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hefeiddd

b000usdgbp2.01½s2.00½t2.04½
Hi guys!

It's been a long, long time. I'm no longer with the bank so I'm cleared to post, again.

Have a very profitable week!
Hoftman


Outstanding Order:
b000usdgbp2.01½s2.00½t2.04½


PS: There should be a USD/CHF thread...

.


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hefeiddd

I have remained on the sidelines for GBPUSD for some time, but I think I may get back in this week for a possible surge in volatility on Friday. Considering the highs the pair keeps winning and the steady bullish sentiment behind interest rate differentials and the technicals for spot itself, it is likely that normal conditions will keep GPBUSD on a slow climb. However, a really big indicator could shake everything up (as usual). In Looking for a fundamental trigger for a big move, you won't get anything out of the UK. On the other hand, the US docket is spotted with a few interesting reports (housing numbers and durable orders). The main event through is Friday's GDP report. So many analysts and traders have been wondering how low the dollar can go and what could turn its fortunes. We have ridden out payrolls, manufacturing and sales number with nary a 30 point reaction. However, I don't think the market can ignore growth report. Expectations are riding high (3.2% annualized vs. a 0.7% in 1Q). If the print matches the outlook, it could dull the reaction, but it would still put the dollar on a quick and broad move.

Looking to trade this, I will watch the reaction to the housing and durable numbers leading into Friday's event risk. My main focus will be the 240-minute chart and the steadily rising trend channel. If we break below the channel floor before Friday, I may consider a short. However, I would prefer getting long dollars after confirmation of a strong rebound in growth. Looking at the dollar index, the world's largest currency could really use some support right about now.
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hefeiddd

Cable is testing trendline resistance. The next week / two weeks could see corrective/sideways trading towards parallel support.
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hefeiddd

Look for Cable to work towards the bottom of the former congestion area (yellow circle). This level conincides with parallel channel support near 2.0475.
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hefeiddd

Cable is testing the 38.2% of 2.0056-2.0654 / trendline drawn off of the 6/14 and 7/6 lows. A break of this level gives scope to the next level of Fibonacci support at 2.0355 and 2.0284.
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hefeiddd

Something like this perhaps....

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hefeiddd

Here is a close-up view of GBPUSD. One possibility has a flat correction unfolding now from 2.0287. Wave c of the correction is likely to end near 2.0354 (38.2% of 2.0462-2.0287), which is also near ther former 4th wave (in yellow). Bearish opportunities exist near there.
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hefeiddd

Foot and Mouth Disease to blame for the slide in the GBP/USD
Foot and mouth disease has been discovered in the UK once again. The last time this epidemic hit the country was back in 2001 when the government was forced to slaughter 10 million animals. Back then, the breakout of FMD cost Britain as much as 10 billion pounds (or $16 billion USD at the time). Between spring and summer of 2001, when the disease hit, the British pound fell from 1.4750 down to a low of 1.3680. See chart below.
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hefeiddd

Pound Diamond
Check this out!....short term diamond formation in the 15 minute shows a decline through to the 1.9990 figure in the short term. Initial targets just set at the 2.0120 support.
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