一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

GBPUSD: Sep 24-28, 2007.
Hi everybody,

As some of you in this forum I agree in the following points:
1. GBPUSD is still in a weekly/daily uptrend channel. Long term trend (>1 month) is bullish. Below 1.9800 we may consider a bearish scenario.
2. There is a downtrend from 2.0365 forming a triangle. On Sep 12th I shorted it at 355. If the pair fails in point 4, around 2.0290/300, I could consider to go short again.
3. Range trading is a good option waiting for triangle breakout. Breakout confirmation needed for future Cable direction.

At this point of time, Monday 24th, 00:00 GMT, I am getting BUY signals. It seems that 0155/65 could be a good zone to go long. Below that point, I see support at 2.0090/100. 4 hours and 1 hour indicators are in overbought territory. I wait for good support to go long.

A. Rodriguez
http://my-fx-journal.blogspot.com/
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hefeiddd

Reverse sign
Well, we have first sign for reversal in 1H chart by an acceptable shooting star. Touching its high again is expectable. There would be a better entry point specially if 4H give the same view.
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hefeiddd

trading in range for now...
Hi Traders,

Now we are trading two currencies in troubles (GBP & USD). Range trading is the best option for me. EURGBP is trying to consolidate a break above 0.70, giving us some support in a bearish scenario for GBPUSD.

For now we are still trading in range using 1 hour chart, waiting for triangle breakout.
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hefeiddd

Really interesting stuff, both sound very plausible, Personally from a purely technical stand point I still think there is a larger correction underway from the 20650 yearly high. Looking at the medium term, looking for the 1.9644 low or at least a test of it. The past few days have been very choppy and have given little away, but again I am favoring the short side going into tomorrow.Attached Images

hefeiddd

The structure remain short term bullish as long as price is above 2.0135 so those of you that got in yesterday can move to breakeven if you wish. The first target is 2.0315 which is a fibonacci extension. Now is not the time to get long but if you are already in the trade, then keep risk tight because the current level is the 100% extension (possible reversal point).Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hi BD,

I have to sceptical as the major trend line that was supporting the up trend has now broken and acting as resistance, coinciding with the 50% Fibo retrace level. Only when this level becomes support again would a long be viable until then ??? Better to stay away?
If long for a target of??
If short Target??
From a Fibonacci POV. Cable should have reversed at FE100% but instead slammed straight through. This is disconcerting and hence I am now 50/50 about direction of cable. For me it is a no brianer - OUT of position.
Short targets are clearer but this is pure gambling and not TA,PA or whatever A you may use.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Just a heads up if anyone is trading the GBPCHF. The pair is approaching a short term resistance line. Trade accordingly.
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hefeiddd

While I think this move had more to do with USD weakness, the fact that the BOE didn't issue a statement at this most recent meeting helped propel GBP higher. Take a look at the attached 5 min chart - Cable burst higher following the rate decision. I take the fact that the BOE didn't bother to say anything means that they no longer feel the need to address the issues in the financial markets, as they have no plans to address it with the overnight lending rate. I'm sticking to my guns: Unless we see some major economic data (CPI, employment) start to fall off a cliff, I really don't think there's a chance the BOE will cut before year-end.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Dr, thanks for your time and comments. My LT outlook is still bullish, but I am aware about a potential reversal based in fundamentals.
Above 2.0390 zone my ST outlook is bullish; but below that point I prefer to look for a range, around 2.0100-2.0400. Below 2.0100 my outlook could turn bearish. Check my pic attached. A. RodriguezAttached Images

hefeiddd

I agree. UK RICS housing data at -14.6%. so, it seems that UK housing market might be facing a similar cycle that is well underway in the US housing market. This scenario helps expectations for a BOE interest rate cut in coming months/weeks...

Technically speaking it seems the Cable is looking for a range in the short term, with 2.0480 zone as top and 2.0260 zone as bottom. If it breaks .0260 zone, good target for bears is 2.0185 (50% of 2.0493-1.9877). If US Retail Sales disappoints on Friday the range could persist.

Good trades to all!Attached Images

hefeiddd

John, if we interpret yesterday's move as a false break of downtrend line, it seems that the resistance is at .0450 (also upper BB 1ds).Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hedging strategy for Sterling / Swiss
Currency Pair: GBPCHF
Entry Zone: Go both long and short at the market if the price is at any level within the 2.3500-2.4400 range
Protective Stop: Long stop below 2.300 and short stop above 2.5000
Profit Target: Long Target at 2.4400 and Short Target at 2.3500
Profit Potential
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hefeiddd

Fibonacci ...
Strong trend is still in the charts. Technical indicators are bullish, however RSI and Stoch are in overbought zone.

Checking the monthly chart I found a similar formation 20 years ago. After two new historical highs, Cable has corrected towards the 38.2% ret zone both times. After a new third high the correction was towards 61.8% ret zone.

If it is an "accurate behavior" and if we interpret that we are going to the second new high (2.10 ?) the correction could be the 38.2% of new high-1.3678.

Interesting? does it make sense for you?
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hefeiddd

Resistance line that dates to May 2006 was touched today.
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hefeiddd

I'm not sure if we'll see much pullback tonight...the recent lows ran into very solid support. For the very near-term (tonight), my bias is to the upside for a test of 2.0670.

Edit: I just realized how close 2.0670 is...my bias is still to the upside, but I'm noticing a little too late to get into the game.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Call me crazy guys, but I think Cable still looks pretty bullish, especially with this push above the 38.2% fib. For near-term targets, I don't think the 2.0850 level is out of reach.
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hefeiddd

A break of .0647 and it's a test of Monday's low. Below that open's the door to .0360 and then the triple bottom in October drawn in red on my chart.
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hefeiddd

Daily channel
My LT outlook is bullish, but after yesterday's reversal, it is possible that Cable is going to test the channel lower line within next days. Let's see!

I see key supports at .0450, .0300 and .0225. As 4h & 1h RSI are in oversold zone, we could have a range for the rest of the week. Anyway, I think that .0225 is a good bearish target (61.8% of 2.1160-1.9649). A new high around 2.1230 could be a good target for bulls if possible.

Good trades ahead!

P.S. David: I always check weekly charts and the last week doji impressed me yesterday when I came back to the charts. I am getting a fresh bearish crossover in my weekly stoch!. drums...
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hefeiddd

I'm desperately fighting the urge to remain bullish (and stubborn), as there are far too many indications that Cable is preparing to nosedive. Check out the ascending wedge on the weekly charts. If that's not bearish, I don't know what is. The pair's failure to break near-term trendline support is killing me though...just do it already!Attached Images





Queen of charts? lol, don't flatter me. My concern with Cable is that it will test a new high before it actually takes a dive. I've attached the same GBPUSD chart, except this has another trendline highlighting a steep channel. That said, if you're looking to go for a longer-term short entry, you can probably get a better price than where we are right now.

This charting package is through TradeStation, which I only started using tonight (and I'm learning as I go) since my usual package keeps crashing.
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Sometimes David gets a little cranky...

Cable uptrend remains intact for now, however, I suspect Thursday's BOE decision could have bearish repercussions for the pair. I don't think they will go so far as enacting a rate cut (though it wouldn't surprise me, as UK markets and policy makers seem pretty spooked by the credit crunch), but they could issue a statement like they did in early Sept when they first addressed the August volatility. For those who aren't obsessed with central banks (like me) and don't know, the BOE does not typically issue policy statements unless they make an adjustment to monetary policy (rate hike/cut).
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-14 15:23 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Cable has pulled back from short-term trendline support near 2.0550. Perhaps another test of 2.04 is in store...
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John, your 15 min charts hurt my eyes.

Aside from that, the 50% retracement level of the decline from 2.1160 - 2.0353 at 2.0750 has held up as pretty solid resistance, so we'll see if trendline support near 2.0620 can keep Cable bid.
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This is what I'm working with....I think we may see Cable break lower from the short-term ascending channel to target the confluence of trendline support and the 23.6% fib level at 2.0440/65. While I'm ultimately feeling bearish on the pair for the long-term, until we see a break below approx 2.02, it may be worthwhile to take advantage of short-term buying opportunities.

Apologies for the cluttered chart...
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-14 15:22 编辑 ]