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- 2006-7-3
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楼主 |
发表于 2008-5-15 08:24
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Gbp/usd
Hey guys,
I've got a thought I want to share with you all and see what you think about it. First off, I've attached a daily chart of the GBP/USD showing a few things. The first being the major support level at roughly the 1.9400 level. The second item of interest is the highs made at 2.1160 at the beginning of November.
The ~1.9400 support zone was tested for the first time at the end of Jan. That level was tested twice more with the last time being in the last week of Feb. That is a full month of solid buying. Another thing to note is that the rallies that followed the test of the support zone went up about 500 points each before the buying stopped and price fell back over. Finally, the rallies off of that support zone were explosive; there were 200 point gains on those two days.
So my question then... It takes a lot of buying/selling pressure from the big institutional guys to move the forex market. So it looks to me like one of those institutions have been bidding for the GBP/USD within a 500 point block for a solid month. They could have been doing one of two things, in my opinion. They were either unloading a short position or buying/adding to a long position. The high of 2.1160 was the highest price printed since back in the 1981 time frame. So if they were unloading a short, it would have to be one that was most likely initiated since the recent highs. It seems illogical to me that they would take a whole month to do that. Therefore, it seems that there is possibly a big fund loading up on a long position here in anticipation of higher prices. Fundamentally speaking, nothing good is coming from the U.S.A. as far as economic data, so it seems logical to me that the USD will continue to fall for some time yet.
So I'm curious what you guys think about that. It's always good to be on the same side as the institutions since they are the ones moving the markets.
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