一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Closed Long USD/JPY trade with 45 pips in gains
Yesterday, 10 Year Bonds Treasury Futures Closed Above a Significant Trendline. This implies that US yields have probably reached a top and the USD strength against the yen could be limited.

Given the new circumstances we decided to close our long position in the USDJPY with 45 pips in profit.

This was our fifth consecutive profitable trade.

I will keep you updated.
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The Stochastic Range Trader: New Trading Strategy to Scalp Yen pairs
This is a new strategy that uses a regular 14 bars Stochastic Oscillator (3, 3, 1) to trade yen crosses. Please, let me know if you have any question or recommendation to make it better.

RULES for the FX Stochastic Range Trader Strategy (BETA VERSION)

• Enter Long When the %K lines crosses above the %D line and the lines are below 20
• We only trade in the direction of the currency with the highest interest rate.
• Sell Stop: We should close our trades at 3 times the value of the average true range.
• Profit Target: Take profits at entry price plus 3 times the average true range
• We chose to use the same value both for risk and reward to avoid any statistical bias in any direction. For example, if our stop id much closer than our target, odds are that we are going to have more losing trades than winning trades
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hefeiddd

What Tarry says is absolutely logical! Although, I think on the fundamentals, USDJPY is a bet against them. But on the cyclical view, this one is really getting to be an old dog. Here is a chart for your interest. I call for a correction to 119.87 this month Attached Images

hefeiddd

s000usdjpy123‰s123¾t118¾
Hi guys!

It's been a long, long time. I'm no longer with the bank so I'm cleared to post, again.

Have a very profitable week!
Hoftman


Outstanding Order:
s000usdjpy123‰s123¾t118¾


PS: There should be a USD/CHF thread...


.
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hefeiddd

I agree, and I think we could see a move up to 123.50 over the course of the next few days. This could possibly even happen tomorrow if we see some highly bullish US economic data or commentary from Bernanke...Attached Images






I noticed the same thing, but my scale is a little bit bigger. Looks very similar to the consolidations we're witnessing in other USD pairs including EURUSD, USDCHF, USDCAD, etc.

Watching and waiting
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hefeiddd

without exposition yen have problam in break strong pivot Line
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hefeiddd

forecast by cyclical repetition
Here is my attempt to forecast USDJPY for Monday 30th, using cyclical repetition. As you can see, I expect the price action between the thick red and black lines to repeat itself, as shown by the arrows.

It will be interesting to see what actually happens on Monday. Maybe something quite different!

If you want to construct something yourself, these are 30-minute bars.




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hefeiddd

The USDJPY has been trading lockstep with the US Dow Jones Industrial Average. If the index remains above a key Fibonacci retracement and 100-day SMA near 13,225, I think we can see the JPY reach back above 119.00 through the short term.
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hefeiddd

The breach of this support line in the GBPJPY indicates additional bearish potential.
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hefeiddd

Recent spike in USDJPY vol is small when compared with -1 of 2006
However, is still very small when compared with the levels seen in Q1 of 2006
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hefeiddd

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is entering into negative territory and this should help the Japanese yen as leveraged bets unwind
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Ahead of the FOMC, the Dow Jones Industrial and the Japanese yen continue to move side by side.Which one do you think is the leading indicator?
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hefeiddd

short trade A lot of junior traders hate shorting and fear getting it wrong. A high risk strategy is to sell off a key level, after a failure to overcome and momentum has dropped overnight. This could have been done this morning London, shorting the dollar/yen at 119.70-ish on the few upswings we had overnight.

However, a conventional and safer short technique is given below, illustrating a break of support rather than an assumed failure to surmount a higher resistance.

This one would have booked you 48 pips before breakfast! See chart.

Note you would have had to ignore all the day's techno press about Ichimoku clouds, Tenkan lines and so on, all upwardly biased.
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The USDJPY continues to trade according to the Dow Jones Industrial average con and vice versa. However, in the past few days the USD/JPY has been falling more that the DJI. Assuming, the correlation holds, this gap will close and this offers a good opportunity to buy USDJPY.
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With carry trade unwind making headlines across the world many of us would think that traders are cutting on any short position in the yen.

That's not true.

In fact, according to our dealing data, USD/JPY longs have been increasing at the fastest pace in the last 6 months.
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hefeiddd

I have been looking into a Dow Jones Index that tracks the performance of the 1800 biggest financial firms in world. The index is at critical levels and if it breaks we could see more yen strength and probably a USDJPY test of 110.
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hefeiddd

Congratulations Black.day. Great trade. That has got to be one of the best and gutsiest trades I have seen in a while.

As time has evolved since then, we certainly saw a retest of 112 in the hours just before the European session opened, though the initial bounce wasn't that big. What was your target on that move? I'm sure it wasn't 75 points given the recent volatility and your stop.

It may still perform but we have had a spike below the 112 level just as European capital markets came online that I made 30 points on. If it goes back below, I'll look for another 50.

At the time, European equity markets have opened modestly lower (the CAC 40 actually recovered and was trading in positive territory) and then runs over from the 5.4 percent plummet in the Nikkei - the worst one-day decline in seven years. Now Japanese investors have to worry about credit issues and eroding profitability now that their currency's rebound will help to level the playing field for competition. Futures on US benchmarks are down over 1 percent, but that can change in the next 5-plus hours until the open. Elsewhere, government bond yields are down, but they are not losing ground with the same fervor that equities are (perhaps a reason to remain somewhat optimistic?). And treasury yield futures are curiously higher.

This pair and all the yen crosses are crazy with volatility. I will stick to my vow in not looking for long trades and I will stay out big trades (perhaps to my detriment), but I am too tempted at taking advantage of the intraday breakouts given the volatility we have.Attached Images

hefeiddd

hefeiddd

If the Federal Reserve cuts rates? Is this the end of carry trades?
Surprisingly, in the last 2 decades, carry trade performed the best when the fed was cutting rates.

The attached graph, plots a G10 carry trade basket, the Dow and the fed funds O/N rate.

When the Fed was cutting rates on 2001 the strategy had its best run because suddenly we got short USD.
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hefeiddd

jolly weather forecast Hello - hope this helps.

Tony
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hefeiddd

The only issue I have with this article is that Japanese fundamentals rarely contribute significantly to strength in the Japanese yen. Sure, you may have brief periods where they correlate, but consider this: Japan went into recession in 1990, yet the Japanese yen strengthened significantly. Check out the monthly chart below. I'm certainly not brushing off the importance of Japanese economic data, but taking long term trades on the yen should be based on other factors as well.Attached Images

hefeiddd

The Dow Jones is coming upon key monthly resistance at a falling trendline from early August highs. This is unsurprisingly similar to the USDJPY chart, which is showing a test of the same trendline. The USDJPY has made several peeks above the line, but a Dow failure can easily doom the USDJPY to an imminent drop.
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hefeiddd

heads up for a new cycle Attached shows the (Aug-29) conclusion of the very dependable 68-week cycle on dollar/yen. Price lows often come before the end of a time cycle. We also see the long lower shadows indicating some serious buying coming into the market.

So while there may be some hesitation or consolidation in the next few days, the law of physics tells us that the pair must rise as a half-sine wave - even for just several weeks if not multi-month.


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hefeiddd

without exposition
hi and have a good deal .



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