一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

If a correction is really in place, 1.83/1.85 could be possible within next months. check weekly channel.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Heavily overbought 60 minute oscillators certainly support the case for a very short-term GBPUSD pullback.Attached Images






There are several levels which should provide support for Cable so I'd say it will be choppy on the way down but still this is where I feel it's headed in the coming weeks. 1.75 is so far away from where it is now that I prefer to focus on .0360 for the time being with .0072 in mind. This level may not even be seen as looking at the hourly chart I can see that Cable spent most of October moving sideways in a range .0250 ~ .0500-ish and this is likely to be difficult to break initially.

Here's what I'm looking at now ...
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hefeiddd

Bullish again?
Hi everyone,

3.25am GMT. After yesterday's candlestick it seems the market is just in pause before a new move towards north... Market is ignoring the weekly evening star. I am getting a rising channel in 4 hours chart with .0750/.0800 as top. My ST outlook is turning bullish.

so far, 2.0660 (38.2% of 2.1160-2.0352) is resisting. In a bullish scenario a break is needed to test .0750 and .0850 levels. I am not getting strong signals to go short right now.
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hefeiddd

Trade recomendations:
sell 2.0635, take profit 2.0425, stop loss 2.0760






I think the GBPUSD is lining up for a worthwhile short-term sell. Nearby resistance of the 50.0% Fibonacci from 2.1160-2.0352 at 2.0755 provides a platform to get short, while maximum position risk would be set above the 61.8% Fib of the same move of 2.0851.
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hefeiddd

daily channel
Let's see if 2.0720/50 zone becomes new support. if yes, it seems market is going to 2.15 before the year ends. Above 2.0400 my ST outlook is bullish.
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hefeiddd

The pair broke a neck line (2.0414) of a “head & shoulders” shape, then rapidly dropped down, but a week’s ascending red trend (2.0179) showed a resistance to this movement. Bumping off it can give the pair a chance to bottom-up testing of a neck line (2.0420), but in this case a descending 4-hours trend will most likely be broken and then the pair may rise to 2.0523 and higher. If tomorrow the descending movement will continue and a red trend will be broken, the pair’s target will be 2.0010 level. Strategically, the pair will be forced to drop to 1.9600.

hefeiddd

At D1 graph we were having a “head & shoulders” shape which was successfully ignored by the market, because a very strong trend emerged in its way.. The pair bounced off this trend on 390 pips – the red ascending trend from W1 graph. Its breaking opens the way of going down to 1.9855 for the pair

At H4 graph the ascending trend was broken and a slightly deformed “head & shoulders” shape is forming. This shape is formed with a very important rule violation, hence we need to be careful with its neck line braking, it may be false. Now the right shoulder is forming. Its forming can long until 2.0450, where a strong resistance in a form of neck line of the daily “head & shoulders” is situated. Also, the pair may not reach 2.0450, if the lower bound of an ascending trend manages to show a decent resistance. I expect the breaking of neck line, followed by the red trend breaking and I will head to the strategic target at 1.9850.

hefeiddd

It's clear as the holy water!
If my analysis is right, weekly MACD is supporting bearish scenario. histogram's negative divergence and support line breakout.
I will wait for a pullback. It seems 2.0290/.0340 could be good zone to reset shorts.

Feedback?
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hefeiddd

Hello everyone

I see Cable will retrace to EMA 7 2.0284 before it follows the 4h TF trend to 2.000 area

But if it can break the 100 fibo . we will see her to 2.0400 area

Please comment ..thank you
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hefeiddd

Not sure where your party hat is, but I've got some confetti.

I've been away since the middle of last week, and it looks like I missed out on some GREAT price action. Not to jump on the bandwagon, but Cable does look primed to target 2.00, especially as UK data isn't likely to prove very bullish for the pair this week.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Cable just did retest of the longer term channel support. Let's see if it holds.
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hefeiddd

The reason of stop in pair’s lowering is “G” trend from the weekly graph, and also the ending of the 3rd wave of the daily trend “C-C+”. Although rumor has it that pound is currently the most vulnerable pair, the analysis of the picture about EURGBP clearly negates this rumor.
Now the pair is being traded in a descending “a-a+” channel, breaking of its upper bound will confirm the end of the 3rd descending wave and the beginning of the 4th ascending wave with target at 2.0222. At the hour’s graph “double bottom” shape is forming based on 1.9892 level. On its breaking, the pair will tend to break the upper bound of “a-a+” trend. The target of the 4th wave is 2.0222 level, but there is a very important trend “E” before it, that is capable of keeping the pair from growing to 2.0222. It’s very probably that the growth will stop at 2.0115 level and the pair will forward to 1.9557 from it. That level is not the target of the 5th wave which is at 1.9229, but is rather a good support.






Trading recommendations:
Accumulative positions
1) Buy 1.9910, stop 1.9870, target 2.0115
2) Buy on breaking of the “a-a+” channel’s upper bound, stop 60 points, target 2.0115
From 2.0115 I will consider options to sell.

hefeiddd

to be frank, everybody is waiting for 1.9500.

hefeiddd

Welcome back Black.day! Looks like you're back just in time for all the fun...

Here's what I'm looking at right now: Cable is currently testing support at the June/August 2007 lows near 1.9650, and I think we could see the pair bottom out for a bit near the 38.2% fib of the rally from 1.7047 - 2.1160 at 1.9588. However, I don't think the bounce will extend very far (in GBP terms)...maybe 400-500 pips. From a fundamental perspective, the BOE will likely be a bit more firm in their stance as Libor rates have come down a bit and the worst news from the financial sector appears to be out in the open...for now. I'm certainly not saying that the whole credit crunch issue has been resolved, but I don't think that the BOE will see the need to aggressively cut rates in light of the stability in the services sector. Furthermore, with commodity prices through the roof, they'll probably harp on the inflation issue again (which I don't think will be a major problem for the UK this year). As a result, we may see that at this meeting and perhaps throughout the first quarter, the BOE will stay neutral. However, all bets are off going into Q2. Obviously we need to see how the economic data evolves up to that point, but I believe we'll see some monetary policy easing around that time.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Head and Shoulders forming on intraday charts.

hefeiddd

Gbp/usd Next Move
I think this count can be better.this show the target approximately at 1.93. it has a risk to move near 1.98.




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hefeiddd

3 time cable tested that res line (this time with a round nr included). Be aware how price reacts to round nr's along with resistances which is at least

tested 2 times.

hefeiddd

Position reversed at 1.9350 yesterday. flat now at 1.96. Checking charts for next step. Trading downtrend channel in 4h. A consolidated break above 1.9650/1.97 could cancel my bearish outlook. waiting for BoE minutes. At this point of time (00-00gmt), channel upper line at 1.9979, lower at 1.9311. Looking for options inside it.

A.

Edit: Adding chartAttached Images

hefeiddd

Bank a couple of those 200 pip trades and they cover a whole bunch of 75 pip losers.

Last but not least.... unless you have a very small account...don't ever let the risk component of these precalculated trades be more that 2-3% of your total captial. You never know when lady luck will go against you and it is possible to have 10 losers in a row under any method. Even at 3%...10 in a row is a big bite out of your trading account.

I am all posted out for now.

Good luck
DaveAttached Images






My playbook is as follows since I am not presently in the GPB.

I have an intermediate term target of 2.0036 (See attached "daily" chart). I also like how the target projection is lining up with a fib retrace from the big run down.

The question in my mind is do we retrace some before we get there or do we just head up. I am watching for a qualified break above the present locals highs 1.9850ish for an entry. (See 4 hour chart attached) If the pair breaks down the retracement target expected is 1.9660 at which point I will be reassessing.

Guess we need to let the price tell us what will come next.

Dave
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hefeiddd

I don’t develop certain trading tactics for this pair because it is now in a heavy influence of EURGPB, which started to drop again with 0.7340 target. Due to the fact that GPB is not a very strong currency at the moment, the GBPUSD pair will move opposite to the general tendency of market’s behavior. Or it will often pass false levels, what can lead to stops’ activation in different directions. I have determined the range of pair’s free movement: 1.9665 – 1.9890. In the case of breaking the level 1.9890 (trend C+), I think there is a good chance for going up to 2.0120, if EURGBP will continue to drop and will have the potential of further lowering.