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一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-16 06:42 | 显示全部楼层
Yen is getting to a point where it would break one way or the other
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-16 06:45 | 显示全部楼层
Well, Jamie thinks that we can see a fairly large correction before a resumption of gains.

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-16 06:48 | 显示全部楼层
USDJPY to consolidate?
I mentioned in the EURUSD forum that I thought the pair would consolidate its recent losses above immediate support, and I think we could see something similar in the USDJPY pair. I'm no EW pro, but I noticed that the rally from 109.55 - 113.52 was approximately equal to the rally from 107.20 - 111.22. I'm taking that as a signal that 113.52 will cap gains in the pair for now and contain USDJPY to a range of 112.50 - 113.50 for the next day or so.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-16 06:49 | 显示全部楼层
I also see some upside potential following this period of consolidation...it looks like USDJPY is falling into a flag formation on the 240 min charts (which tends to be a bullish pattern). As a result, I'll be looking for a break above 113.59/69.Attached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-16 06:50 | 显示全部楼层
hi all i think that we are arguing about an pair (usdyen)that alone main artery this country for continuation life is only exports. therefore strengthening yen against usd have decrease exports after.for example two or three month front boj(governor) said in the event that yen go under 110.00 we will control market .up chart show to us previously this worked .two pullback from my point of view is interference boj for control market .we must see that usdyen will go above 113.80-1140.00 .but treade on an pair (usdyen)that have interference by itself reserve bank is good? ------------- this was my point of view 11.13.2007. but now see that usdyen will go below 111.70 becuse if yourself ear bring near to monitor , will heard sing a song candlesticks for have a downfall from hill (113.20)
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-16 06:51 | 显示全部楼层
Contrary to main dollar pairs, I see JPY reducing versus dollar. Possibly, this is caused by a swap trade mentioned earlier in the general view at the market, but technically such picture is being drawn unambiguously.
The pair has broken the descending weekly “E-E+” trend, breaking of which gives the target of growth at 116.05 and, strategic, at 120.55 (possibly unreal). If pair manages to break the “F” trend, the growth will continue to 116.05, wherefrom the correction to 113.95 is possible in future. Breaking of the side “a-a+” trend amplifies the potential of breaking the “F” trend and gives the pair an ascending impulse.


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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-16 06:52 | 显示全部楼层


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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-16 06:54 | 显示全部楼层
hi john thanks for your post no 1741 in discuss gbpusd .john myself was worked in dealing room(1990-1994)at the time when still forex wasnot and only banks were dealing with other banks and not by internet perhaps with telex lines between that years also was worked with services reuters .i satisfied with services reuters but still i have not worked with services bloomberg .now i have a question from you , from your viewpoint ,services reuters is good ( professional)or bloomberg?also from fxcm of viewpoint an client with asset usd 70000 is retail dealer?in the meanwhile cadyen formation head and shouler i see cadyen fall with 400-500 p- down
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-16 06:54 | 显示全部楼层
hi all charts are clear
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-16 06:56 | 显示全部楼层
hi all charts are clear
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-16 06:57 | 显示全部楼层
USDJPY inverted -&S ?
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-16 07:00 | 显示全部楼层
usd/jpy
i was looking at this hourly chart were the pair broke ouy of prior range highs and a possibale buy signal the daily stochs are oversold and rising the hourly is over bought and dropping does this look like a good place to buy after the hourlies pull back some iwas thinking of an entry around 109.45 with a stop at 109.25 looking for maybe 110.20 any thoughts?
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-16 07:01 | 显示全部楼层
These drops in USDJPY have indeed been pretty severe, and weren't helped by a 3.35% drop in the Nikkei and 5.37% drop in the Hang Seng overnight. A look at the monthly charts shows a break of a rising trendline at 117.92...from here, I see the confluence of some fib extensions around 104, though the 1999 and 2005 lows around 101.25 and 101.75 are more substantial.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-16 07:02 | 显示全部楼层
hi every one
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-16 07:03 | 显示全部楼层
hi every one
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-16 07:11 | 显示全部楼层
hi
breaking asceading channel and UsdJpy ready to go 100 .
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-16 07:12 | 显示全部楼层
I expect an ascending movement, if the higher bound of an H4 channel “a-a+” won’t be broken bottom-up like “b-b+” trend. Starting from “a+” trend the buying is acceptable. The first target is 109.40, after which the 111.30 level is possible.







Trend Lines
Hello Everyone,

I'm new to the forex market. I use to be a stock trader, but I got tired of the earnings calls, the so called experts making the opinion and sending my stocks in the opposite way of my trade. I love that the forex market uses that same technical principles as the stock market. I'm now convinced that the forex market is more predictable and reliable than any stock that I've owned. So, now to the point...I need more information about drawing trend lines as earlier as possible. In below chart, is the hourly chart for USD/JPY. The previous trendlines were drawn 7 hours after the trend already formed. I was able to get 25 pips of profit from the breakout. So, how many candles have to form from this breakout in order to provide a new trend channel? Or, how should I trade this breakout?

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-16 07:13 | 显示全部楼层
hi all strategist agree with you perfectly .i had said in my post no: 126 and 141 (candlestick trading )that usdyen is in bottom and maybe 100 or 200 p lower (105.00-104.00)but im agree lower from this points .i think this trend is ending and usdyen will go to 109.50 or 109.70 .we must be careful on weekly chart(candle chart)this long legged doji well be a nightmare for sellers.i think this year is for MR YEN only.YEN OF YEAR
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-16 07:14 | 显示全部楼层
Will USDJPY continue on the rally yesterday or is it going to reverse?. From what I see, the pair will be in negative territory for the next couple of days. Is my assumption correct?
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-16 07:15 | 显示全部楼层
Hello to everybody I hope very things is going well.

As I see the bears bias on the pair is very strong, so this is my point of view, is you see the weekly chart you can see a little divergency between price action and the MACD so this could be a signal of small setback, may be to the top of the bear´s channel around 109.80 or 110.50 and after this price could be down until your next target close to 100´s ....what do you think about it?

Here are the charts take a look and tell me your opinionAttached Images
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