一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

new to trading. I sold GBP/JPY 205.5, stop 205.9, limit around 204

Anyone have any thoughts
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Doc1.doc (104.0 KB, 89 views)

hefeiddd

Trade Idea
Well i came across an intresting situation on the hourly chart of the pair so thought to share it with you guys. IF you see the chart that i have attached you will find that the pair has been moving up in a rising chanel for some time and the rsi has also formed a rising chanel since then.. But recentely the rsi has broken out of the chanel which is a good indicator that the price will aslo brk the rising chanel...Moreover if you see the prices have been making new highs where as rsi has been makin lower highs which shows bearish divergence calling for a reversal.. Below the macd and stoch have also crossed in for a sell signal conforming the move. So i guess it would be a good idea to sell the pair with a sl 20 to 30 pips above the recent high and target smewhere arnd 112 or even lower.... Have a look..

Hope this helps you to form a stratergey

Cheers

Varun

***Please remember the ideas and TRADE CALS that i give is my own view of what i think is going to be happen these are not trade recommendations... Use your own analysis to judge the market. I dont take any liability for any loss caused by following these ideas***
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hefeiddd

Lows of yesterday being tested now.
Hi,

I thought you might like to see what is going on with Geppy. Clear downtrend in place. Woodies appears to show that this could be a potential sell poin if the trend continues down but this would be a foolish entry as Geppy swings like an allligator with a fresh plate of meat in front of it.

Hence waiting for a ZLR or reversal of trend. Technically this should be the purchase point for a run back up to 224 ish but it could also be the top for the next wave down. Shorts taken higher are in the best position like you guys.
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hefeiddd

MACD
Hi EU 4X,

I was just looking at that as well!!

The problem is here:

Daily chart shows that we are at Zero line on Woodies (line of resistance). If we have a rejection Geppy is going up again.

Usually this sign takes 1-2 days to develop.

GL & GT
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hefeiddd

OK
I was just wondering that is it go below 217,50 and that's why I was hoping that north move. I missed that down signal.... but hey, that's life sometimes

Still couple hours to do something if there is something to do.
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hefeiddd

Technical
We are at the support 217.45, 219.00 as i see is the first resistance (look H4 chart) from where we can continue our A,B,C, correction. Now if we close above 219.00, the next serious resistance is at the 220.60 where i can see right sholder of head & sholder pattern and also the level of the daily channel brakeout.Attached Images

hefeiddd

seeing a bounce from the lower bolli and the (now) signif. triple bottom @ 217.40/50.
booked a 130pip proft yesterday, got out cos of stretched hourlies. looking to get back in on a dip towards 219. this pair doesn't seem to respect fibs so LT looking at the top of the bolli band and previous high at 223.50. With this pair anything's possible and we could see a test of the channel top LT. Certainly favour the risk/reward of a long at this point.

hefeiddd

Hi...

A possible new direction for Geppy time will tell...
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hefeiddd

Dear John,

Yes, I entered a short at 221.89 after the price failed at 222.00/20, have a stop at 222.39 and first target at 220.59...

My guess is maybe, traders are squaring their long JPY carry trade positions ahead of G8 in Asia today...the trend might continue in EU/US sessions as well..here is the chart based on which I entered this trade..

But I'm watching anxiously as prices had first bounce off 221.50...that should break by Asian close for the short to stay valid....
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hefeiddd

Just a personal observation for the geppy traders..

USD/JPY is approcahing the 8 year bear TL from 1998 which is currently at 118.70 so it only has another 100 pips to run before hitting that,

There could well be a reaction and pullback from there. Also the GBP strength of this week is purely as a result of the good UK data and the markets pricing in another rate hike in November, there will come a time when that hike is fully discounted.

I'm currently long on geppy but will be looking to reverse short when and if USD/JPY gets to that TL at 118.70

Just another viewpoint
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Hi John

I was fortunate and got in long just above 218.30 ( on a 1hr tenkan/kijun cross) If I didn't have that buffer I would also be waiting for an entry.


As Maratha correctly points out the risk is for carry liquidation before the G7, also Gold dropping causing JPY to rise as the spec players get out of their JPY funded gold longs. USD/JPY should find support around 117.30 but keeping an eye on it.

Geppy currently holding at the 4hr tenkan but if it closes much below that on this 4hr bar (3hrs from now) then will cover current longs and look to take a short dated (1 week) long call option with a strike in the 223's so I can load up with some risk free shorts if we get the pop higher next week.
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hefeiddd

Just wondering what you guys think about the yen. I am of the opinion that the yen getting ready for a fall. With the price making new highs but rsi continuing to fall on the daily chart. Do you guys pay attention to divergence or just support and resistance? Anyway just thoughts from a new trader.

Thanks
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hefeiddd

This is the 4hr showing the possible way down..with a couple of rising trendlines still in play.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Short GBPJPY 223.75, Stop 224.25, 1st Target 223.25, 2nd Target 222.65, Limit Open
So, my short GBPJPY got triggered! If the price bounces again from the range bottom of 223.25, will cover, otherwise will wait for 222.65 to give away for a nice ride to 221.00/221.50 range...am attaching the chart for reference...
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hefeiddd

Hi Icarus

Good to see you still around

I'm still about and very active although I don't post. Just keep my head down and concentrate on the trades

Japanese GDP confirmed JPY strength around the corner.

I'm pretty confident USD/JPY will break below 116.50 this week, Holding geppy shorts and looking for at least 500 pips in the next 2/3 weeks

Cable I'm looking for USD strength coming into the US data at 13.30 gmt we might get an overrun of the 8950 level but I'm looking to buy at the fib confluence level around 1.8922 for a USD selloff in the ST

House hunting.... still ongoing. going back over for a couple of weeks again in Jan.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Geppy now just testing the daily kijun line @ 223.20 so have covered lower shorts from 224.86 @ 223.27

Expected pullback would be the 4hr tenkan currently around 223.90 so planning to start adding back on around 223.70/90

Still holding 225.23 shorts

Cable gone long @ 1.8965 and will add to 8930. Only targeting 1.9060/70 for now and a possible reverse short from that area
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hefeiddd

Dear JohnG,

Jumped onto GBPJPY short as CCI(20) pierced zero on 4-hr charts (with definite bearish signals on daily) towards -ve at 227.81...expecting a break of 227.40 (23.6% of 222-229) and targeting 50% of the same at 225.81 (50% is at 225.65/75)...

Let's see if GBPJPY works this time...have a very tight stop at 228 and will tighten it further to breakeven on break of 227.40 (can't trust this pair!) :P
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hefeiddd

DT

Out of interest I'm posting this chart (if it works). Its the daily for the last 300 days with the monthly channel drawn in (from 2000 onwards). I'm now wondering whether 226 might be significant as the 50% line of the monthly channel. This coincided well with that dull patch back in Sep/Nov and could be a pull back support if things go wilder than expected. What do you (or anyone else) think ?



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hefeiddd

I get the base of your (steeper) 205 channel at 229 currently DT. Is this what you get ?

This is also the level of Dec 4th peak and Jan 7/8th dip.

My problem is that if we'd drawn your channel last week, the topside would have been where the red line is on the chart below and you could interpret the recent action as a topside break which has then been supported on the retracement at 236. Could you not argue a break below this level will make it less likely to break back above again and our long targets should be in line with the red line, with buys much lower (229 to 232) ?



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hefeiddd

Anyone with more formal training in trendline analysis may want to look away now, but for me, they're quite a subjective technique which you learn from experience.

I see a channel on the 4hr thats been steady since pre-December. We are currently rangebound/consolidating in a tight area within that channel and have been for 4 days.

240 is critical but may not hold on the next test.

The 1hour chart gives out initial base, but if this breaks - as per my previous post and DTs comments - I think 236.50 offers good support. If this breaks (doubtful) then the bottom of the 4Hour channel will have caught up to support at 234.50 and should offer quite a barrier. If this breaks (even more doubtful) the its bye-bye to a 2month+ channel. I don't think there are any fundamentals to cause this - jawboning about G7 topics isn't powerful enough on its own.

Just my opinion, and thought some piccies would brighten the forum



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hefeiddd

Hi DT, Maratha & Goldfinger - good posts

I got hit today but not too bad. On the bright side thers some much needed action which should shake some positions out, allow new ones to form, and eventually lead to restart of the uptrend (a la Goldfinger)

My 50% fib of the early January move comes in above 234.50 and this is probably going to be the start of the support zone. However, as Maratha points out, anywhere from the late 233's up could get involved.

I'll split my lot up and by in bands from 234.60 down, stops just below 233.

As I type we've had a little bounce which coincides with the channel drawn on 4hr chart (as per a previous post). I don't think this'll be enough to support and will wait for a buy around the fibo.

What a pair!


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