一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

61.8% Fib
Here is recent chart behavior...testing 61.8% fib of decline before resuming next downleg...so, current upmove might run out of steam at 237.40/50 level...let's see
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hefeiddd

Long Term GBPJPY 286, 350 or higher?
Dear ElTorro,

Yes, the monthly RSI is above 70...however, if you look at the monthly chart in terms of basic fibs and support/resistance trend line, then the picture looks quite bullish with first target of 286 and second target of 350+...here is the chart...
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hefeiddd

The GBPJPY is approaching the lower line of descending wedge on 4-hr chart at 234.70-234.90, if this level gives away, there might be deeper correction towards 231.60, otherwise, we could see another ride from 235 to 237.50+....incidentally 234.64 is also 50% Gann level for the upmove from 228.02-241.44...
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hefeiddd

Andy please see attached monthly chart. As pointed out well in advance with regards to the PPI and CPI to fall below market expecations and for the market to reasses another hike. tomorrows report will also be dovish.

I feel USDJPY can fall potential towards 118 in the next few weeks. we should see the unwinding of carry trades soon, especially if BOJ raise rates!

I am holding cable shorts from 1.9730, stop @ 1.9530 (todays high). targeting 1.90, very dissappointed with price action that it failed to break in the 1.93's!

Also holding GBPJPY shorts, from 238.10 moved stop to 236.50.
1hr and 4hr charts are showing sounds that a rebound is looming so am tempted to close the position, but tomorrows data could take out 235.40 and bring us to the 233's, lets see how it goes. Right now it is finding it hard to move to 236 as GBP just got shot shot down by a sniper from 194.57. so swift was the move down tells me GBPJPY is going to have a hard time to rally.Attached Images

hefeiddd

gopher breakout
DT,

I thot I'll post it here, being a gbp pair and all, hope the others don't mind.
Take note of the brkout and support areas, I've highlighted some.
Drill from 15mins all the way to daily or whatever for proper analysis and Supp. and Resis. areas. It's been in a uptrend for some time now, just like the other gbp pairs.
The range changes every couple of weeks but it's always well defined, cos it plays in it's range for a while b4 changing up.
The spread (9pip with my dealer) is bout the same as geppy, but for the range this pair plays in, that's nothing, the spread gets paid b4 u even know it, besides u've been playing with geppy for some time now, the big spread shouldn't worry u. There's plenty of pip$ opportunity here.
Trade it with very good analysis proper discretion, it's a wild pair too. There are plenty pips in those candles, chart is just squeezed tight so I can hightlight some for ya.
I believe ur crazy enough to tackle it, lol

PS, I'll be posting things like this (when I get the chance) @ N2's place from now on.

I forgot to mention, this one also requires wide stops. Stops highly recommended.
My Mid term expectations for this pair: 4500s-4700s upside, 4100s-3900s on the downside.

Edit: I straddle brkouts, I place my entry points a reasonably good distance from the range top and bottom (and even then fx can be wicked enuff to come whip u out). So I set alarms to be sent to my phone for whenever/whichever gets trigged first, and just go cancel the other.
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hefeiddd

Maratha, bravo excellent play. was out for valentines and missed the data release and move. ah well, this might be good enough data for the BOJ to raise?? according to the 60 min chart and my analsis attached a rebound is underway since it is now approaching oversold. Looking to set shorts in the region of 236.50 or better for another test/break of 235.24. Best to stick with the trend as it is your friend!
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hefeiddd

Wow....that's some slide! Took one more short at current price (233.37), first target is 231 area and if that gives away, then 225. If 231 gives away, then current daily uptrend line is broken and 50% retracement to 225 would open up...if 225 gives away (very low chance!), then the whol move from 200 to 241 might be under pressure...here is my chart...
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hefeiddd

Dear JohnM,

Nop...never used USD index or JPY index...do let us know if you find anything interesting...

For GBPJPY...there might be a 40-60 PIP pop on Asian open to 233.50 based on hourly and 4-hrly studies turning around...have another short order pending at 233.50...let's see if it is triggered...

This would be an exciting JPY week for sure...
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hefeiddd

Posssible wolf wave ?
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hefeiddd

Hi Andy the Wolfe wave is on Doppy.

Here is the chart. I cut my longs a bit early and am now waiting for a pullback to re-enter depending on circumstances. Hence I am happy to show the chart.


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hefeiddd

WW on 1H show some pullback. We may see 236 lvl.
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hefeiddd

OK target is @230.70/1.00 and that is just my view point on geppy.
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hefeiddd

A cpl snaps weekly support strong on the approach with weak volume, carry still in tact me thinks.
240 bounce off solid sup angle but could be in trouble if it tries to attack that decending black

Nice potential for a morning star formation ???
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hefeiddd

Is this not a carbon copy of price action at the same time last year ? If so we can maybe expect sideways/slightly upward price movement in March (until repatriation is over) then upward movement after that.

Also bear in mind that forex prices are essentially based on expected future economic status, not the status we see today. So, although last year GPY rate was still 0%, all the talk was about when the first raise would be so surely if there was going to be a full unwind it would have happened then, or certainly when .25% was announced later last year.

BOJ will raise slowly - very slowly, and will be very worried about a strong Yen pushing Japan back into deflation. They have the most to lose from a strong Yen, their whole deflation battle is at stake! Its also not that weak a Yen at the moment compared to the 80's.

So that leaves us looking for the bottom, and a golden rule of trading is to try not to pick bottoms. So anyone got any ideas when the base will be hit ?!? Maybe tonights JPY data will be a potential turning point.
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hefeiddd

Dear All,

Hope, you have pot of coffee ready....for GBPJPY, to be frank, I don't see any support till 205 level and solid support starting 200 level...everything in-between is price structure from 2006 (i.e. new)..wonder how strongly it would hold...

JohnG,

If you are reading this, any comments on where the current move would end?

If I draw Fibs from 148.17 to 241.44, then 23.8% is at 219, 38.2% is at 206, 50% is at 195 and 61.8% is at 184!!! Quite wild...but, I do believe 200-205 revisit...what do you guys think?
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hefeiddd

Hi there.

Still a lot more downside to come yet, geppy pretty stretched after that move so some consolidation/bounce would be in order as we have just tested a .382 fib.

Cable got hammered as a result of geppy unwinds but I'm looking for chunnel to pull back and also swissy to head down more. which would take some pressure off cable and help geppy stabilise even if USD/JPY does head down further- I'm expecting US data this week to be USD negative.

I've just covered geppy shorts and am now flat but have gone long on cable @ 9237 targeting 9400 with a stop at 9205

USD/JPY has room for another 300-500 pips down to the 110's

Edit :

UK PMI below forecast, kneejerk reaction down on GBP. Have just taken a long on geppy @ 221.78 stop 220.90Attached Images

hefeiddd

Morning all

Still holding geppy longs from 221.78 and 222.83, was getting a bit concerned on the drop last night but the .50 fib @ 221.00/05 held perfectcly so added another at 221.27.

4 hr chart looking constructive and a potential tweezer bottom on the daily

Raised stops to 223.70 and am targeting mid 226's

Still holding cable 9222 long targeting 9400 stop at b/e but will raise on a break of 9335

Edit :

Cable just got below the .50 fib yesterday but has bounced back above it today, 4hr chart has turned up and daily looking oversold so assuming the stock markets don't do anything crazy today then looking for a correction.

Swissy has downside potential and so does chunnel which put in a shooting star top yesterday, which would strengthen both cable and geppy
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hefeiddd

Slightly revised game plan for me. only based on a "feeling" and just eyeballing the charts

Looking for USD to strengthen but also for Yen not to strengthen any further.

Will be covering cable long @ 9325 and then if the charts warrant an entry will start shorting from there up to 9400 with stops above 9425.

Geppy longs I will hold as I expect the USD/JPY element of the cross to hold it level or push it up more.

This time last year USD/JPY and Geppy moved in sync, with geppy having a negative correlation relative to cable. In the last 6-8 months that has not been the case but I have a gut feeling that the negative correlation might return.

Just thinking out loud here so everybody just stick to their own way of trading as I could be way off line

Edit :

potential little WW forming on the 15min which would tie in with my shorts
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hefeiddd

Hi John

The Nikkei came up and closed over 1.4% higher last night,

S&P futures already up 10 from 1,373 to 1,383 in tha last hour, if that trend continues this morning and into the US open then we could get a bit more of a relief rally on the Yen pairs, how long that lasts or how far it goes remains to be seen.

NFP week Attached Images

hefeiddd

hi hi hhhhhhhhhhhiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiAttached Images