一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Chinese CPI ay 0700gmt came out higher than expected, sell the rumour buy the fact.

It's going to put further pressure on US equities. Footsie already down hard and DJIA S&P and NASDAQ futures also down before the open
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hefeiddd

Hi Maratha,

You do not know how glad I am to see you back . Been a bit worried about the future of this thread since the changes. Perhaps it can keep going for the cool "brat pack" to exchange "behind the scenes" so to say. It is early yet, but I cannot seem to get used to the other moderated format .

Having said that ... I am currently long GBPJPY from 237.25 and 238.90 and a wide SL set at 238.10 on both which equates to roughly BE (but I've got some interest pocketed already). The SL is a trailing one with 239.90 bid moving the stops to 239.10 locking in 200 pips total. Bit sloppy reasoning but I am targeting 241.xx highs. Hoping ...

Just to share my GBPUSD strategy as well - given the cross interaction ... I am actually looking for a good next leg up. I am attaching a current D1 and W1 chart. As per the upward channel on the W1 I am hoping for a top at 2.07+. I also have been watching the D1 with the channel on that and been expecting a correction down to the channel bottom which we touched yesterday/Friday. So if my hunch is founded then we move back up and back down within the D1 channel until the W1 channel top is reached.
Would really be interested on what your take on the/my W1/D1 channel thingy is. A bit over-simplistic? I still have multiple longs from 9415 upwards. Holding ...





Wish everyone a great weekend ... over here in "old Europe" April has been giving us a surprise early summer. Heavenly ...

Best regards,
Chinaman

hefeiddd

Dear JohnM,

That's always a fruitful activity...MT4 is pretty powerful and one can automate lots of menial calculations...I'm working on the same...

Dear FX_Cub,
239.50 looks like a choppy area...better place for short-term long would be 238.80 and upside short may be better at 239.80...just my 2 cents...good luck with the long...

PS: Hello moderator...though your fight against spam is noteworthy, by limiting image uploads, you have significantly compromised the forum's utility...food for thought...
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hefeiddd

The NFP upside looks limited to 1.9930/50 range...have left a pending short order at 1.9930 for GBPUSD, still holding my short from 239.25 on GBPJPY...let me post the Shi channels graph for GBPJPY...
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hefeiddd

GBP/JPY analysys June 3rd
Spot trades 241.99/242.08, we consider a 4 hour chart
The move originating from May 11th has held 0.382 Fib retracement in the 239.70-80 area which gives scope for further upside in this currency pair. Action on the 1st of June saw a break of trendline resistance originating from daily highs registered on 23rd of May and 25th of May in the 241.80-90 area which is also technically supportive for the bullish stance.
Also, carry trade currencies ended the week at their highs, underlining that carry trade is still the theme as we head into the 3rd quarter of 2007.
To the upside, 1st resistance comes in at around 243.15 which is the 0.618 fib projection of the move originating on May 11th. Although the breakout of 241.85 opens the perspective for the 248 handle to be touched in the next months of trading, it is advisable to approach the long side with caution since the BOE rate decision this week might change the short term picture.
My strategy looks to get long 1 lot at current spot 242.08, take profit at 243.08, stop loss at 241.60. The risk/reward ratio for this position is 1/2 as we risk 48 pips for a possible reward of 100 pips.
This analysys is not intended to act as a trade recommendation, but rather the point of view of an individual trader.
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GBP/JPY trading plan for tonight
Long at 242.08, stops moved to cost, spot trades 242.39/48, we consider the hourly charts.
As I was mentioning early, I will be looking to add to our long on a pullback to our 242.25 pivot zone wich coincides with the Fib 0.5 retracement of the last move to the upside. Target remains 243.08 for the whole position.
As I was writing this analysys, the second entry just got triggered on a spike lower in the 242.25/34 level. I am long from 242.08 and 242.34, stops for the whole position 242.08.
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hefeiddd

Chart shows Geppy in Extreme Oversold conditions w/ RSI entering oversold, Stochs oversold. Historically speaking you can see how the price moved the last time prices hit extreme oversold conditions. The thick red and blue bollingerbands you see are Bollingerbands+.618 ratio. I would look for a retracement to 242-244(.382 retracement).

hefeiddd

I've marked off the Extreme levels w/ red lines. You'll see extreme overbought is 242 and extreme oversold is 239.20. Geppy's gapping down already, could hit around 239.20, then bounce, also triggering the bullish divergence although my MACD divergence indicator hasn't given a buy signal yet.

hefeiddd

From 1 extreme to another, w/ RSI and Stochs supporting each one, gotta love it when it's so easy to trade technically Dare I even say there was a "buy" signal generated via my system, w00t.







Chart is 4-, but there's a downtrend line that pices are respecting. Twice the price hit this line and has come down already today, I would think it's the line to break.

hefeiddd

Price has bounced off of 50% and then 23.6% of the move from 240.68 to 230.26 (8 hour chart). The hourlies has retraced to the 50% of the move from 230.26 to 235.84. Looking at this, I am favoring the long side. I took a -81 pip loss on my earlier short and have since gone long at 233.94.

hefeiddd

Looks like the move above 235 may have been a false break that is already rolling over.

It that is the case, we could see GBPJPY work its way back towards 233.50.

Of course, such a move may be difficult to accomplish by the end of the week if equities don't cooperate. We've seen some considerable volatility in the US benchmarks, yet they have ended almost exactly where they opened. The Asian and European indexes on the other hand have been on the move. As I write this, Dow futures are up a sparse 0.08 percent though the Nasdaq nearby is up 0.32 percent. This is hardly promising though as the Nikkei put in for a 1.36 percent Friday rise.
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Looks like you were right about that pull through on Dow strength closing the week. With the Heng Sang up more than 3%, I think its pretty clear that risk appetite is pretty healthy this morning. Looks like we have to get through 236.50 and then GBPJPY can march onto 240.
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Looks like the 61.8% fib of the 240.70-230.30 wave at 236.75 has held back the rally pretty well. Perhaps we can get a downdraft to the rising support 234.25/50 (or even down to 233.00), but I'm not going to try and squeeze a short when my long and medium term bias are to the long side. And, given solid resistance, combined with risk and volatility likely to pull back before the Fed announcement, it looks like I'll be sidelined in this pair until Wednesday afternoon.

Any bias on the Fed outcome > equities/risk drive > GBPJPY direction through week's end Maratha?
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hefeiddd

Well, looking back, I was right on 240.75 not holding price back (vindication). And, then move a few hours ahead, if I had gotten long, would have been beaten down.

It's funny how the pair stabalized while US equities continued to fall through the afternoon session yesterday. A breaking of correlation? Likely not. Probably just a hypersensitivity to volatility in risk rather than just risk alone. I'm considering a short GBPJPY position if the Dow and S&P futures plunge before the US open (probably right after the NFPs). If equities just creep lower or actually rise, I'm going to stay away. 237.20 or 236.85 seem to me to be good triggers on an limit short. Anyone have a better level?Attached Images






Looks like the risk correlation hasn't broken down just yet. With the Hang Seng plummeting 5 percent (the most since the 9/11 terrorist attack), the Nikkei off 1.5, the Europeans down more than 1 percent and the US futures already working on near 1 percent declines; risk considerations are too great to ignore.

Let's see if we can really generate some fear among equities this time around. Perhaps if their loses can lead to problems in lending and/or cap ex in other sectors, we can get a real correction in the benchmark indexes this time around.

After breaking that rising trend, we have considerable momentum; but I'm waiting for a 60 or 240-minute bar below 237 before I put out for a continuation move down to 235 and, depending on volatility going into the move, 233.

sumanweb3, it's difficult to give advice when you are already in a trade; but I think if you didn't already have a stop loss in place, you should put one in right now. It may be difficult to take a loss, but it is better to take one that measures 200 points, rather than one that is 400 points. Look for support and put a stop loss order in below it. If I were already down more than I were comfortable with, I would get liquidate the position immediately and start looking for the next best trade.
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hefeiddd

GBPJPY is consolidating quite a bit, and resistance at the confluence of a short-term trendline and the 38.2% fib of 241.36 - 237.09 at 238.70 is holding the pair back slightly. However, we're seeing that gains in Asian equities (Hang Seng is +1.28%) are helping to buoy the pair. A break above the trendline will likely target 239.75.
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Hey Maratha, have you checked out the daily chart? GBPJPY neared a critical support level at the 50% fib of 251.10 - 219.27 at 235.14. MACD has started to turn bearish...I'm not convinced that GBPJPY has a ton of upside potential to it. Maybe we'll see a little more action when London enters?
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-16 18:06 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

An alternate view of the GBPJPY hourly chart may suggest that the rebound to 239.70 was a rebound to test the rising trendline that was acting as support until yesterday. The peak of the recent rebound happens to coincide with the 61.8% fib of the 241.40 - 237.15 downswing.

Of course, we need confirmation of such a turn, and I'm going to remain conservative on any short positions. I'll wait for a confirmed break below 237 before I take a short GBPJPY trade for a few hundred points. To the upside, I may just go long on a 60 or 15-minute candle close above 239.75.
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Looks like 237.00/25 has held up as a good double bottom. The long term uptrend is telling me to buy on the dips, but the medium-term and short-term charts aren't as clear for me.

I may wait until we have a daily bar close above 240 to take advantage of a long-term trade with a 150-300 point stop. At the same time, I'm going to set a limit entry order at 239.90 to take advantage of that range high, target 240.75 and stop 239.30.

Maratha, you are catching some good price action and trades between 239.75-237; but I can't monitor it close enough to get in and out for those quick intra-day moves.
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hefeiddd

Before reading Terri's post, the lower time frames (for me the 60-minute) were encouraging me to believe that we are seeing the beginnings of the turn for GBPJPY. we have a good, down sloping trend channel, that's for sure.

However, once I saw this, I scaled my charts up to the daily time frame and my confidence in a reversal quickly deflated. That spike around 235 coincided with a major pivot level as well as the 50% fib of the 7/20 to 8/17 downswing (3,200 points for those interested).

So, I'm while I am placing orders to short bounces around 238.50, I'm going to keep them small and not hold on in the hopes of a 500 point rally.
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head and shoulders?
making the bearish case for gbpjpy...possible head and shoulders formation. A break below trendline support at approx 234.50 would make me a bit more confident that the pair isn't ultimately trending higher to break through 240.
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hefeiddd

Oh man. I couldn't get triggered on my short? Of course, my target was only 150 points on half of my standard trade, but still. I can't believe we had a 600 point move in a little over five hours.

What are we blaming this on? Equities? carry trade liquidation? To me, this looks like it was momentum that had built up into a technical break.

I'm going to look through the short-term charts and see if there is any selling on bounces, but likely I'm out of this until we get a good break below 230.Attached Images





Aaaargh. Why do I have to sleep? I didn't want to place an order on GBPJPY because of its volatility. I was simply planning on waking up in the early US hours and see 230 under pressure and play the price action from there. Of course, when I wake up my next short entry order was completely blown away.

Well, I missed out on another 500 points of profit potential; but I need to move on. I'm considering a break of 225; but my target will be limited because my technicals are merely tails now. Also, I'm not going to short the 225 break unless it comes after today's US session close - I can only see so much price action in one day before big money starts to buy value to create a nice intra-day bounce/reversal.
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hefeiddd

While my bias for very near-term (this morning) is to the upside, I think that in the longer term GBPJPY has much lower to go, especially if we see a break of the neckline in the head-and-shoulders pattern. However, that 224.15 support level needs to be conquered first...Attached Images






We really got some considerable volatility after running into 232 and it looks like a few of you have put in for some good short-term moves. However, from here it looks, like we are in a choppy and painful turn. I usually keep my charts up to the 240-minute frequency, but considering the volatility we have right now, technicals on this chart are pretty much worthless for trying to find entry.

I'm considering a small stop short entry order at 228.30 to sit on while I'm at work. If it isn't triggered by the close of the US session though, I'm just going to take it off. Not worth taking 70 points of risk in this kind of market when I'm not around to watch it as it can easily whip me out.
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I'm assuming you're referring to the drop around 15:35 EST...if you look at a chart of the Dow, you'll see a similar drop right around the same time, indicating a jump in risk aversion.
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hefeiddd

The GBPJPY is showing a textbook head-and-shoulders formation on medium term basis. The neckline seems to be at around 219.27, and a break below would clearly heighten bearish sentiment on the pair.
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Lower lows and a double touch that is looking less and less like it can stand up to a third push. I'm widening my standing short stop order in respect to the low liquidity this week (to steer clear of potentially high volatility). Lets hope we can get a break to the downside before the start of the Asian session Thursday. Otherwise, I'm going to have to cancel it because I'll have limited internet access.

But considering this pairs volatility and the tight space it's worked itself into, I think a breakout could come tonight or tomorrow night.
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Looks like we don't have that break lower quite yet...rumors of an emergency Fed cut pushed the yen pairs high overnight. Your trendline is being broken as we speak, though I'm not confident the rally can extend much further than 228 max. My longer-term bias remains to the downside.
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The more I look at GBPJPY on a daily chart, the more bearish it looks to me. That huge head-and-shoulders pattern we've discussed previously...the double top at 240...the descending triangle. I think it's only a matter of time before the bottom falls out of the pair.
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hefeiddd

I'm still holding my short and medium term bias to the downside. Came in short just a few points above 224. Looking for 75-100 points. Only looking to hold this position through the Asian session. Anything longer than that, I'll cut it for a smaller profit or perhaps small loss.

Looking at the higher time frames, It's looking more and more like we could get a genuine break below 221. As was pointed out before, last week's candle provided the first close below 225 in a year. And, if we take it down to the daily charts, we are seeing consolidation activity in the usual wick area between 220-225. This suggests that we won't have the reversal momentum for a quick recovery that we got in March and August. At the same time, the longer we stay in this area, the more stop losses and stop entry short orders will accumulate and make a drop below 221 even more effective.
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GBPJPY looks a bit too messy and indecisive for my liking..the pair is dead in the center of a short-term range. Depending on the price action, I'd consider shorting on a test of 226 or going long on a test of 222.50. I'll be watching to see what develops over the next few hours...
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hefeiddd

Good thing I didn't try to catch a top again at 225.50. Short-term tech levels can only last so long with the kind of daily volatility we see in pairs like GBPJPY.

With this upside breakout, I'm a little mixed on my outlook for trades and their profit potential. My higher time frame (weekly/monthly) looks like its still to the upside. Medium-term is to the downside, but coming up to a neutral reading. And, now the short-term is looking for upside moves. Under these conditions, I'm going to be a little more choosy in my GBPJPY trades and keep my profit targets and stops limited and within the bounds of the next, most influential range.

At the momentum, I'm keeping an eye on 228.00/50 as that has proven itself as an area of resistance/support in the past and it happens to hold a confluence of fibs as well. No attempts at trying to catch a top given this momentum, but I'm considering a small buy stop order above resistance for a small continuation move.
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hefeiddd

A couple of days ago I said that I saw more upside potential for GBPJPY, but this consolidation below resistance has really made me a bit hesitant. Furthermore, looking at daily charts of the Dow, the index had basically stopped dead in its tracks at the 50% retracement level of the decline from the top to the November lows. Like GBPJPY, we've seen the Dow consolidate, but I think the end result could be a hard push lower. However, I doubt we'll see it within the next day or so, which may provide some short-term range trading opportunities.

Edit: Just remembered the BOE meeting on Thursday, which provides substantial event risk across the GBP pairs. Beware!
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