一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Looks like the wedge may be broken..... at last....!

Perhaps we will see some movement now.......

I am thinking this is a retrace from the uptrend.

To me, the volume is really light at this time and difficult to see a trend
Attached Images






off topic
here is a look at the YM from today
Attached Images

hefeiddd

nuther look
Attached Images

hefeiddd

Bline entry
I use the Bline system.... works for me....

from time to time I will post an entry...
Attached Images

hefeiddd

Not an entry
here is my thinking at this time.. no trade available yet, as I see it, but I expect a decline

actually, before I get this posted, I see the decline is starting
Attached Images

hefeiddd

couple more, I should have had this done before I posted
Attached Images

hefeiddd

some divergence here, perhaps indicating will move to the downside.
Attached Images






These tight consolidation periods in GBPJPY can be a bit frustrating...while it's a bit sloppy, it looks like we may have a pennant formation on the 240 min chart, which is a bullish continuation pattern. However, given by bearish bias, I'm not really looking to take long positions in the pair at this juncture, but I'm definitely keeping an eye on the price action.
Attached Images

hefeiddd

I am attaching a Bline chart and will try to explain my thinking on it....

the chart on the left is 4000 volume and the one on the right is 2000 volume...

In the first lower chart is stochastics, the second is Macd and the third is more stochastics..

This system is set up to use multi time frame and looks for distances between the various length indicators for the purpose of taking advantage of retraces in price.

What I see happening at this moment is that price is moving higher and then will fall as momentum seems to be down based on the long term stochastics...., particularly in the higher time frame...

When the Macd in the lower time frame chart begins to cross down over the zero line...... that's when I will look for an entry on the next lower TF (1000 volume).

If there is any interest in this approach I will be pleased to post the charts a little more often showing the two entries in the system.... I find it to be quite reliable for me...
Attached Images

hefeiddd

I am going to post one more chart. actually three time frames 8000 vol, 4000 vol and 2000 vol, and I will attempt to demonstrate a little more clearly.....

The chart on the extreme left is 8000 Vol, you can see in the bottom chart that the 'Bline' white is headed south..... and that the Macd's are below the zerro line and in the upper lower chart all the stochastics are headed down......

As the two lower time frame charts see the price rise, I expect the retrace to end and then resume the down move..... based on the Bline in all three time frames being at the bottom...

This system is not designed to catch tops and bottoms. instead to join the move in progress.

Hopefully that has offered a bit of clarification...
Attached Images

hefeiddd

Three different looks at daily chart.

I prefer to have a few looks as each approach may give clues to what is coming.
Attached Images

hefeiddd

I'm with you Maratha. I'm getting the sense that equities are going to hold up for the next few days, boding well for the pair. Also, we may have a bit of a range developing around 208.80 - 213.50.Attached Images






Dear All,

Still no trade for me...prefer to wait for ISM tomorrow (even better, wait till British data tomorrow night!)..need to wait for a break of 210 or a spike towards 212+..

As of now, technicals point to a short term base towards 210.25/50 level with upside potential towards 212+, but I can't see how stock markets could support such technicals, so staying on the side to see how the price action develops...

Here is an hourly chart showing my estimate of a base around 210.25/50 levels as well as the upside potential...(the downward channel has already been shown by Terri in her chart)..
Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hi...


Maratha..... I am not convinced we will be heading down...all the charts I see is that maybe we have the base and it's up from here...not taking Fundies into account....as mention previous I was looking at GBPCHF which has a good correlation to Geppy...
Attached Images





Hi


Well my opinion the other day was...that maybe further moves down were unlikely and my opinion still stands with that...even after the move down yesterday...

I still compare to GBPCHF and the recent down move was only just a little more that a 50% retracement and stopped were it should have as far as the Cloud is concerned......but a move below recent 4hr low will probably change my mind..
Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-16 19:14 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Dear JohnM and Andy,

I know...but the train seems to have left the station for south over next two sessions...let's see if it can reach 205 or not...

If you look at the bounce from 209 level..it's a classic retest of previous support line at 209.50/75...love it when I see such text book examples in real life...
Attached Images

hefeiddd

Here's how the expected swings worked out today. The cycle graph is lined up with the 15 minute chart below.

hefeiddd

4xis2ez

View Public Profile

Find all posts by 4xis2ez

hefeiddd

Here's how todays turn points worked out.

hefeiddd

hefeiddd

Dear All,

As the week comes to a close, the pair has lost momentum...but here is an interesting technical view of the hourly chart...the minor upward sloping channels in the larger downward sloping channel...

If the week closes near the bottom, start of the next week could either see a break or a retest of 210.50-211.00 levels before next down leg...let's see..still hanging onto my short from 208.75 (don't like to enter the weekend with an open position, which is under water, but what to do...)..

Have a great weekend...
Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

oops I forgot the chart
Attached Images





ooooooooops, I forgot to attach the chart......
Attached Images





GBP JPY 720 minute chart

Once the Macd drops a wee bit more I will enter a short
Attached Images

hefeiddd

looks like we can go short now
Attached Images





John

Seems to be working well at this time, I was nervous just after I posted that chart........ but after a while the down move commenced.

That system demands some patience but I have relatively good results when I follow the rules.

I will post a follow up chart
Attached Images




turns
I am experimenting with this neural net, it may give an idea as to what is coming......
Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-16 19:23 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Moving averages
Sometimes a guide to entries can be taken from the trend.. if no trend. stay away unless you have deep pockets......

I am attaching two charts which cover most of the time frames used...., you will see the difficulty of making money consistently unless you are really nimble on the lower time frames....

The system that I follow is trend based.. and I have to stand aside unless there is a good slope on the time frame I am trading.

Hopefully this will aid some understanding for some folks who seem to be entering on the wrong side.
Attached Images