一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

hefeiddd

This is as of 2:15 am EST.......

I am unable to watch this market as there is quite a snow storm here. I have a lot to do outside....

Perhaps someone can let me know their performance with it.....
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sonally I have a lot of confidence in it


Have a great week, everyone....!
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at the vertical black lines you can be om alert for trend shift.... like am alert. it could happen.

The Blue line is saying that about 3:30 EST can expect up move to follow...

until about 6 pm EST then a retrace...... then continuation up about 8:30 EST

The market may decide to do something different. in which the next refresh will show differently......... So far since 9:15 pm we have the same pattern as the market has done as forecast...

Does that help a bit.....

I think that if I post the thing continually, will be easier for you to catch on..

Please ask more ques and I will do my best to reply..


dave
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refreshed at 9:30 EST
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-16 19:28 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Hey guys, I haven't really had much time to participate in the forums lately but it's great to see so many new posters (not to mention that a lot of you seem to be doing really well)!

GBPJPY looks to be setting up for a nice break higher and the pair is testing resistance at 210, but the upcoming UK data (employment, BOE Quarterly Inflation Report) could shake the GBP pairs up quite a bit. If we see the pair weighed down, I'm curious to see if 209.00/35 can hold up as support (though it may not even come to that if GBPJPY successfully breaks down 210).

Regardless, I will probably wait until after the BOE Report (5:30 EST) before considering taking any positions.
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hefeiddd

thanks for the help
thanks for the help to the Moderator, i did it and will try to upload a chart now

And thanks too to John M, i will try your method next time

wow, the two charts uploaded in notime

here are my toughts on those charts:

Seems that finally we can expect some clear trend next days, on the 60 min chart i would expect a retrace to 211.50 - 211.00 and keep an eye on the Bollinger bands and the lower line of the channel that is beginig to form, to close any short. then i would expect a up move (using daily chart) and keep an eye on both up line of the bollinger band and the 40 SMA that was clearly not breached in late january if those are not clearly breached then close long positions.

if that chart is not clear enough, here is a detail of the indicators used :

SMA(10) - yellow line
SMA (20) and both bollinger band lines - green lines
SMA (40) - white line

any toughts about this are welcomed
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hefeiddd

current as at 4 10 am EST
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GBPJPY three minute chart
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as at 7:12 am EST
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as at 9:08 EST
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hefeiddd

Dear RNG,

Glad to read that the trade worked for you...be careful, though...analyze for yourself the trade and logic behind it and if you are convinced, only then enter the trade..

Dear All,

Here is a combined view of GBPJPY and related pairs...50% fib at 217 looks attractive, but are we seeing an about turn in GBPJPY in mid term?
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hefeiddd

as at 11:55 am EST
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updated as at 2:30 pm EST
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Update as at 5:37 EST
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hefeiddd

short entry
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hefeiddd

some looks at GBPJPY, daily and weekly, might give an idea as to what is ahead..... trend often changes when on the Pyrapoint chart, price meets the vertical.....

Perhaps someone will post a wave count
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hefeiddd

whether will play a role again for long legged doji (2008.01.25)
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hefeiddd

Mount 214?
Here's some weekend food for thought... I think the bounce and weekly close above 10 and 20 day MAs, 211 previous resistance, and within the channel bodes well short term. Downside momentum waning for now. Friday before a US holiday weekend and only modest losses for the day while up on the week. So maybe Monday or Tuesday we test 214.

My plan is to go long two orders on a break above 211.9 or bounce off channel bottom/10-20 day MA for a test of 214. First limit 213.85, second limit 215 or higher. Stops below Friday low of 210.30. Cash out and go short on a failure. On a break of 214, move stop to 213s and open another order if things look good. Go short on a break below Friday low 210.3 for 200 (1000 pips!). Watch out for a developing trendline off the 205 low, however.

Whether we can break 214 or not is questionable. Either way I expect some major moves. Holiday lightened volume is a double edged sword here, so we could push through more easily, or a rejection could send us reeling. Be careful... Three tops in that area...

Keep in mind the broader picture here... looking at dailies we see a similar bearish continuation pattern playing out as before, so in my book it is a crucial pivot point for determining if the recent up move or the entire correction for that matter is done, or if we continue zig zaging up to 217.47 fibo. On the other hand, notice the major head and shoulders pattern. Often price rallies back up to the neckline before heading lower again, which just so happens to be... you guessed it - 217ish. If we fail, however, look out below!
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hefeiddd

Maratha:

Yes, good points. I think the question is are we developing an ascending triangle or a bear flag? I don't think it is a pennant...

Notice in the previous two consolidation periods 5 or 6 inflection points (or 5 waves for you wave folks) depending on how you count. So perhaps we hit a peak and are heading to the bottom of the channel/triangle. But then we still have 2 more points to go...

However, near term I would like to see the MACD histogram start to fall, slow stochs to begin crossing, and RSI to move below 40 before assuming a test lower. Equities have stablized considerably. So without a catalyst to the downside my bias is to play out the bear flag scenario, so from here we could still go up to 214, 215 and then 216 before heading lower to the ascending trendline. We may not see 217 until the final point, which a rejection will then confirm a final test and potential break of the channel bottom.

If 214 indeed does hold then we have an ascending triangle, but like you said it's hard to get long term bullish unless we see a break of 214 after a bounce out of the triangle bottom.
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hefeiddd

GBP/JPY weekly
broboy
I agree completely with your analysis. Right on. I love your chart work and forecasting. Take a look at the weekly that I am posting. Love to hear your thoughts.
Nate
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hefeiddd

here is a multi time frame chart using daily, 12 hour and 6 hour......

I like to use volume based charts myself, but I think many in here use minute based charts.
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i am going to attach a couple charts....... I dont want to make them too large so no details

you will see the area I circled............ the stochastics are set to show the entries........ There is a couple patterns that I look for. and those are my only entries
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hefeiddd

you may see a short term rise. but I am pretty sure short will be fine

u will see falling Bline on my chart....... indicates further drop ahead....
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I have a feeling that a long at this time would be counter trend, and also this is very volatile considering no volume

I meant to attach a chart and forgot it.. now I have attached it.....
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hefeiddd

Hi John

I am watching 30 minute chart at present, I think the down side is starting now with some volume

I have a chart to post
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here is a current 30 minute chart, I am thinking that a retrace is about to start..... and I think it will move up until about 6:15 or 6:20 EST
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attached is 30 minute and 60 minute

there is nothing on either of these to indicate trend going north..
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hefeiddd

hi maratha i see GBPYEN will retest 206.70 , your view?Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

here is a couple minute charts

I am unsure as to trend looking at these
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hefeiddd

I don't usually like to hold positions with event risk like retail sales coming up, but my GBPUSD position is longer-term trade than I usually enter.

Regarding GBPJPY, the longer I look at the pair, the more I think we'll see it fall back to at least 209.50 in the near-term.Attached Images

hefeiddd

sirfx:

I'm not a big wave person but I like your strategy for a long at 208. Perhaps a Muni bond insurer downgrade or some other tape bomb will get us there because the market tends to tick slowly higher on no news. I agree ranges are tightening and a major move is near so maybe a solid bounce from 208 will result in some resolve.

My near term strategy is to play a 210-212 range and going with a break on either side. However, the downside appears limited to the 207-208 area and in any case this is a treacherous market and great care is needed when entering.

I hope you guys like my chart. Sometimes thinking too hard can confuse when the fundamentals are mixed, and this can lead to mistakes so it helps to mark up a chart to get some clarity and develop a strategy.
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-18 15:57 编辑 ]