一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Vnmonica

Shhhhhh don't tell anyone.... I didn't realize they were following each other until the posters in here discussed it.lol.

I made a chart showing Gold overlaid on the US Dollar index..... they are going opposite ways...

As time goes on I will experiment with the currencies more as I am aware that there are more relationships to be aware of..

If you are aware of any that you would like to see on a chart. I will be happy to do those.


Attached is a 5 minute chart showing some fib clusters
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Ab = Cd
A nice pattern just completed on 15 minute chart
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hefeiddd

Update on position It looks like we have a winner. Broken neck line signals potentially more gains. I am posting a chart. My sense is that this is just a correction in what should be a tightening range. Max 209-210
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hefeiddd

Cwave.doc (115.0 KB, 30 views)

Dragon Fly Doji on VIX - return to risk aversion ahead?
So after two days of "cleaning house" - cleaning out the weak shorts after reaching a bearish extreme - can we continue making gains? I believe today's action on the VIX indicates a possible return to risk aversion and a re-test of the lows in the next few sessions. Alternatively, it might just indicate uncertainty before Friday's NFPs.

Notice the Dragon Fly Doji, and neutral readings on MACD and RSI.
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hefeiddd

Well done everyone! Great to see broyboy, Maratha and titan, and everyone else on the team managing their trades well. Let's keep it roll'n. I am looking to short but looking for some upside exhaustion around 208-208.50. Still long from 204!
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hefeiddd

Dear All,

Well, my short was stopped at 207 (+25 PIPs) as I overslept the BoE decision...was thinking it's 0430 AM here on West Coast, but somehow, the news came out 10 minutes early...otherwise, would have closed it little lower...

Took a long at 207 on the recent retrace and looking for 208.50 test...dont know if it would break it or not, given the pending weekend and NFP event, but worth a shot...

Dear SirfX, I'm glad that you held onto the longs...here is the daily ADX picture as of now...the ADX barely went above 30 and has retracted, indicating that recent upmove may run out of steam in a few sessions, most probably NFP pouring cold water on markets...let's see...
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hefeiddd

I am still quite bullish! We are in a complex correction, the actual pattern that unfolds from the 206 low is very unpredictable. DIP buying may work, provided a tight stop is used.
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hefeiddd

Dynamics While I agree with everyone's assessment, I am 80 percent sure that we are headed higher first. There is a very good chance that ahead of NFP we should have some position squaring. A lot of the banks have been ahead of this event and are going to take profits on new lows in the dollar. Especially on the yen. The move down in the markets today was on below average volume, which makes me question its authenticity. Tonight will be wild, and we will all most certainly be on the wrong side of the trade at some point. Capital preservation should be everyone's goal. Entering shorts at the low end of a range is certainly dangerous. I am also looking to short but would like higher exhausted prices, at the very least, at the upper end of the range. 207.5+

For now I stay long....
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hefeiddd

GBP weekly
Hi ALL,

Hope everyone is taking careful measures to protect capital this week. Just wanted to post some stats on what I see on the weekly. As you can see in the chart below, the trading for each week is somewhat based on the oscillation of a 3 week MA. This alone leaves me to believe a consolidation is in the works. Secondly, a FIB line from 10/17/03 with a low of 179.42 to a bolli band 20,3 support of 9/1/2006 provides what looks like a cap on current closing weekly prices. This is at 210ish. If everything falls in to place looks like the shorts are set to get burned for at least the next week, week and a half. It is also worthy to note that the A D X 14,14 is settling above 53, which means the turn is close, on a weekly basis that is. This also confirms my theory that consolidation between 210 and 200 is most likely in the next month or two. Anyway, look for price action in the next week or so to be capped at 210-211. Take care. I know I have been excessively posting, and will just wait and see what unfolds now. Sucks just listening to myself! LOL
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hefeiddd

I will also keep a careful eye on US equities' intraday lows. If they bounce strongly from there, that would form a double bottom and indicate a strong bear rally underway. However, with each bout of risk aversion the correlation between equities and carry trades seems to break down further.

Looking ahead, we have two important data releases, Retails Sales on Thursday, and CPI on Friday. More positive surprises here could fuel a rally. Supporting this are the many stores that reported better than expected same store sales. Most of these were lower cost retailers, and this could keep a damper on core inflation, allowing the Fed to continue aggressive easing.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Gbp/jpy
Bullish Butterfly 60 minute chart
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Bullish Butterfly
update on the chart I posted a few hours ago
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hefeiddd

Butterflies
Yellow Butterflies rock.....!
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Yes. there is divergence....

However, before I would think of trend change, I would like to see three point divergence on the Macd
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hefeiddd

correction confirmation.. For those of you looking for longer term trades. This post is for you.

Any time we have wedge patterns (15min, 30min) followed by new hourly closing lows, below a prior support, you can at least expect a correction lasting several hours equal or greater to the recent move. As such, we have confirmation of this. We have had one leg down. We will now retest 20730-70 area. This provides the maximum entry for all short plays. Shorting before these levels will leave your capital exposed. One technique I like to use is a contrarian to the move I am about to make. For instance, trying to enter on a bolli band after such confirmations, in this case a low 20,2 bolli, to go long----before I set my short at 207.30 or higher. I am posting a chart.
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hefeiddd

Bearish Butterfly 15 minute chart
Caution if u are long
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Butterflies are good....!!
This was an excellent pattern..!!!!
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Bullish Butterfly
this one could be interesting
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-18 19:52 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

So here's the deal The divergences and necklines are giving us a great signal confirmation!
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hefeiddd

Daily chart Here is an updated version of the daily chart I posted a week or so ago. I have moved no lines but did adjust where wave 4 ended. Take care!
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hefeiddd

The sky did fall today and that is why I am buying. Many of the signs of a fifth wave run were evident today as the longs capitulated. The capitulation is a key factor in determining a bottom. I will tell you that it is a trade I have to manage and will do reverse hedges under 1.9990. It is not an uncle thing for me. I am absolutely sure of this call. People are scared...there is blood in the streets... It is hard to call the exact price, but a zone for building a position is all I am trying to do today. It just so happens that it all happened in one hour.

AND HERE IS THE GREATEST DIVERGENCE OF ALL.

Notice how the RSI does not make a new low even though the price is doing the death spike. BUYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!Attached Images

hefeiddd

Big -&S on Guppie and EW weekly count
Interesting chart I found today implies Guppie about to enter 4 wave within a with wave 5 target down to 187-188 level, -&S pattern concurring:
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hefeiddd

Dear SirfX,

Yes, I also do believe that the second half of the year would be bullish as compared to the first half...the question is where will we find the bottom? I was thinking 100 for USDJPY, but that is broken now with a weekly close below 100.

So, to find out where the pair might go, I looked at the GBPJPY monthly chart and here is what I see as of now...

First Fibs are for the rally from 134 to 237, see how it hesitated at 50% fib by pirecing first to almost 61.8% fib then moving upto 38.2% and then resuming the downleg again.

Second Fibs are for the recent rally from 154 to 247. 38.2% Fib is 212, 50% is 201 and 61.8% is 190 (give or take a hundred PIPs). The rising support trendline is at 186 (slow rise of ~30 PIPs per month) and good support/resistance area is in-between 189-199.

If the GBPJPY doesn't show a spike low to 199- next week, then the chances of it dropping to 190 level may improve. If not, we may very well ride it up to 212 again...so, I'm targeting 194-195 range for current short...let's see where the market takes us next week...
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hefeiddd

spreads.doc (88.0 KB, 31 views)

hefeiddd

15 min chart
So we most likely are consolidating. Price will eventually exceed 195.30, but we will probably test 193 area. Potentially a long from there or a break of current resistance will take us to at least 196.30.

SIRFX
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