一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

im still short
the pair is again challenging the long term downtrend (at the moment at 204.07)

im worried because the pair wasn't able to break the 32.8% fibo retracement of the 196.83 to 205.12. that point is at 201.95
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general question
in my last post i have been using a daily chart with a long time downtrend.

my question for all of you is.... do you think it is valid to change the downtrend, in this case to the high of the last daily candle that wasn't breached in the weekend.

in the charts the change seems insignificant, but it changes the value of the downtrend of today from 204.10 to 204.79

having a short position this means more room to hold the short and it can also mean more room to add to a losing position in case the trend is broken

what do you think? all opinions are welcomed
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hefeiddd

downtrend hold
Hi all

i still think to be short is the way to go. the downtrend hold pretty good, no candle bodies above it; on the other hand, slow stochs(10,3,3) and cci(14) have plenty of room to move before getting into oversold

closed my short with 233 pips and waiting to open it again at 202.50/75

here's a chart for you to see.
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hefeiddd

g/y daily technical analysis
- new failure today at ema 50 (todays value 204.50) still behaving as ''bull killer''
- ''Pennant'' formation (continuation pattern)
- imminent break downside

From time 204.50 (ema 50) and more over 205.50 (rf 61.8%) are not broken we are still in consolidation mode.
These levels are ideal points to short the market (sell at high / buy at low)
target : at fibo extensions 138.2% and 161.8%


Overall trend since October 07 bearish. Do not forget that !
Technically, we could test 190/189 level before june 08 and 160 level during second semester 08

Kr
jerome
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hefeiddd

This is my Trade
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hefeiddd

todays update in below chart

conclusion : we are coming almost to same targets points 188 and 185 level (fibo extensions)Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Excellent!! Dilly,

I enjoyed your post. After taking in your targets and time horizon of 90 days, I was able to work on the daily chart that I have posted in the past. We are still trying to exceed the magenta line, but provided your targets work out---the dark green bars should provide a channel for us to work with till mid-late June. Your time horizon and numbers seem to work quite well within the framework and I was able to paint some nice lines. WTG!!!
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hefeiddd

Everything has worked well so far...We are now nearing possible reversal points for the turn lower. Time to catch the downtown train soon!!!!!

Had 3 Long positions:

1 @ 196.00 - Closed today @ 208.10 = 1210 pips
1 @ 197.00 - Closed @ 203.91 = 691 pips
1 @ 199.00 - Closed today at 208.10 = 910 pips

Total = 2811 pips


Hope some made a few bucks on this.


If I could do this all of the time, I would quit my day job.Attached Thumbnails





Sorry. Here is the chart to explain what I stated in my last post.


Good Luck.


Tom
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As stated earlier, looks like wave 4 may be done.
Went long at 204.33. Will keep stops tight. See if I can catch the move up to 208-212 also before the larger decline.


It doesn't look like this ABC correction is done, hence my long.
But, the decline from 208 could also be the beginning of the larger decline. So, I'll just keep it close.


Good Luck


Tom
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hefeiddd

two charts
Hi all

here are two charts,

on the first one, some peole say we are at the end of a C wave and things will have to go UP

on the second one, some people say we are at the end of a 4 wave and things will have to go DOWN

Im not a expert on Elliot wave, and i see both charts with valid points .... so any idea or comment?
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hefeiddd

GBPJPY 240 minute

Bearish AB = CD
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patterns

neat to see them overlap
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GBPJPY 30 minute

AB = CD
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GBPJPY

I think once it passes through this resistance we have a solid move higher happenin
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hefeiddd

I think there is a song.... 'mine eyes have seen the ....... vanishing account' , I have heard it a few times myself....

I am attaching an updated chart showing that we have passed the resistance and now are in a solid move up
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Maratha

I was so sure we had price heading north. and now it seems it wants to go south...

Looking at my indicators, I am thinking we will see a decline on the daily chart, that is unless it bounces off that fib.... I see the macd's starting to go lower, ans also the fast stochs in the bottom chart have started lower.....

This is a tough choppy time for GBPJPY, perhaps today it will show more direction
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Been up since 3 am but worth it.

Seems to be a time of congestion, looks like a wedge forming on the daily chart
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hefeiddd

Just thought I'd throw out another perspective. From an EW point of view. Maybe a drop down to the 205 area??Attached Thumbnails






Ichimoku Strong Sell Signal -30min

hefeiddd

So far the count worked well. I think we may see a correction up to the 207 area before the next leg down. Well see.....



TomAttached Thumbnails





This is the bigger picture of what may be occurring. Just completed Wave 1 down from the top. This is a 4 hour chart. RSI is oversold which is another reason I think we will correct up near term.
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hefeiddd

GBPJPY daily
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Perhaps consider that the up move is a retrace and that there will be a turn south.....

daily is in a downtrend as is 240 minute. except that this is a retrace at this time



dave
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'Perhaps consider that the up move is a retrace and that there will be a turn south.....

daily is in a downtrend as is 240 minute. except that this is a retrace at this time'

I think I hit that one correctly.....lol

Maratha..

I think you had a nice sleep after that trade. that would have made your weekend.!


Congrats.!
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Compare DJI with GBPJPY daily
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hefeiddd

GBPJPY daily

We seem to be in a strong move south. each indicator on the chart is going down and the price bars are long.

Certainly we can expect a retracement at some time
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Maratha

We arrived at the same decision using different criteria...... !
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hefeiddd

We are getting there.....
Hello All,

I have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for this correction to complete. We are almost there. My count has been working out so far. I caught the Wave 1 down for decent profit. (Although Maratha it went further down than I expected....Good call by you.) Anyway, looking for the correction to complete around the 205.55 area.....Then watch out!!!! Wave 3 will be strong and fast. IMHO anyway.

BTW, most of the Yen Crosses are counting this way. Most notably USD/YEN and EUR/JPY. Just a heads up.


As always, Good Luck Everyone.


Tom
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hefeiddd

GBPJPY 5 minute

couple pips for the troll
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GBPJPY divergences appearing
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hefeiddd

http://www.scribd.com/doc/2034473/Harmonic-patterns?query2=extreme%20harmonic%20patterns



Maratha

I concur with the short
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hefeiddd

hefeiddd

hefeiddd