一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

It looks like USDCAD is going through its first notable correction in this uptrend from November 11th. I just hope the pair isn't done with trends and is now going go through its chop/break/chop/break that it was prone to a few years ago. That was an annoying period. I think I swore off USDCAD three times in 2005 as nearly every trendline, fib, EW count, support and resistance zone would fall just as soon as it was confirmed.

Coming back to the present day, I am waiting for parity and then 0.9925. We had some congestion at parity last week, so I'll keep a small stop entry order just above there. I'm more interested in the floor to that former rising trend channel from November 16th. We get to that vicinity and I'll add a full position down there with a 40 point stop.
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I guess this is as good a place as any to mention the attractive setups in AUDUSD and NZDUSD (as they are both part of the comm bloc). I think this pairs have range and breakout potential versus USDCAD's trend development.

I don't know who has been following it, but NZDUSD has been made a very attractive range - with a rising support. I had taken three positions in this pair over the past few months (two winners looking for range - both off of rising resistance; a loser when I went long 11/7 on premise that we would retest the record high, whoops). We are now seeing whether we are going to get a range high and I think we very well could - at least until the FOMC. I'm contemplating a trade near these levels and looking for an advance in the dollar if the Fed only cuts a quarter.

IMO, AUDUSD, on the other hand, is a breakout candidate no matter what happens. We have a tight descending wedge that has been created over the past three weeks and both the falling trendline as resistance and horizontal pivot as support are clearly defined in my book - and therein lies my desire to bet on breakout. I'm not betting on any fundamentals, but I do think the risk/reward is far greater for a break to the downside, so I'll just put in a limit order below 0.8650 for entry. I'll take a long depending on whether I'm around when an upside move happens and if I like the resulting price action.

Anyone else setting up a trade for either of these pairs, or perhaps already in? This could be an interesting, partial hedge between these two for the FOMC event risk.
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hefeiddd

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USDCAD may be facing quite a bit of pressure, as trendline resistance sits directly above while support looms below at parity.
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Looks like AUDUSD has already made a tentative upside breakout from its four week range. Pushing above the falling trendline, 38.2% fib of the 11/14-11/21 swing low, and 20-day SMA all at 0.8800/20 seems pretty significant to me.

Under normal circumstances, I would be long for move to 0.89 that would retest late October highs. However, we don't have normal circumstance right now. The FOMC rate decision is tomorrow, and that clearly has had an impact on AUDUSD price action in this breakout - there is virtually no momentum in this move.

I'm going to stay on the sidelines. Still contemplating an order below 0.8650 to catch a potentially volatile breakout - though aren't likely to see that kind of move even on tomorrow's Fed decision.

Still like NZDUSD. Perhaps I should set an order for a potential breakout to take advantage of tomorrow's event risk...
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Is this Bearish Engulfing the signal for a CAD Rally, Will strong labor and housing numbers, undo the BoC's intentions with the rate cut and put back the CAD back on track.
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hefeiddd

A 50bp cut to the Fed Funds rate could be a trend changing event for USDCAD IMO. From a fundamental perspective, that kind of drop would put the Canadian dollar at a carry advantage to its US counterpart. And, even though the BoC lowered its rates, I don't think they are aiming for the same consistency that the Fed is looking for given growth is still up there and the inflation pressures are skewed to the upside looking forward. Of course, if the Fed makes it blatantly clear that this was the last cut in the regime, and it was half a percent for the most market impact as possible, I'd watch for USDCAD to fall only modestly before coming back to current levels and perhaps continuing above 1.02.

From the technical side of things, we are now upon the major USDCAD trend going back to the 2007 highs, a major 38.2% fib and 200-day SMA. So, from a purely technical view point, we are at a pivotal level where we are deciding the long-term trend as either the major bottom was put in November, or we are ending a correction before new record lows are probed.

For me, a quarter point cut won't define the trend. However, a 50 bp cut could sway me to a considerable USDCAD short trade; while no change to rates and a neutral would encourage me to add to a breakout move above 1.02.

What do you think Montréal Trader?Attached Images

hefeiddd

Well, we can see who the biggest mover among the majors is: USDCAD. The 15 minute candle hasn't even closed and the pair is up over 100 points and has broke above a notable trendline.

The Fed gave a quarter point cut to the Fed Funds rate(largely in line with expectations in both the academic and practitioner communities), but going against expectations, they only cut the discount rate by a quarter point. The statement was still net bearish, perhaps with a slight pick up in concerns surrounding growth and no change in inflation forecasts.

Looks like we are getting a pull back from the initial move. Let's see how far it comes back and if that former resistance holds for a pull back. If so, I may buy small size for a follow through to the upside for 40-60. However, look at the daily chart. We're at big falling trend right now, so either we get a big break to the upside, or we sit here and see a down draft through the end of the week.Attached Images






I wasn't paying attention when AUDUSD ran up to 0.89, but a short at that level looks like a good trade. This level has been a range high for some time (around 0.8880-0.8900) - though it hasn't been as consistent as support around 0.8650-75.

I'm going to watch it as it inches higher. If we get to a good entry point, I will look to short the pair for 80 to 100 points against 50 points of risk.

Still looking for a big break to the downside though. Took my 0.8620 stop entry short order off; but if we get closer to a break, I'm going to put it back in - probably at a different level.

We are seeing some pretty curious ranges going into the holiday season. This makes me wonder if we are going to serious breakouts when the Western hemisphere is out for the holiday and liquidity is really low....
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Here is a little more in AUDNZD - Basically it needs to hold 112.00 handle in oder to establish clear cut support - weak NZD Retail Sales number may be just the trick that changes course in the pair - but as I said this is pure bottom picking and there for e very low probability trade
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hefeiddd

I want to go long USDCAD, but to be conservative I'm waiting for the daily close. I need to see a close above the falling trendline first and a close above 1.02 wouldn't just further my confidence in a long trade.

If we close too far above this trendline, I'm going to hold off for a retest as new support as I want a stop that will survive a false pull back yet I also don't want to have a huge stop that could wipe out too much in one lost trade.

Anyone else long?
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I'll use the USDCAD thread as my comm bloc thread. Similar to the USDCAD upside break, the greenback has made a good push against the Aussie dollar.

The tight range between 0.8660 and 0.8900 has finally fallen in a move to the downside. I was pretty confident in support as it was a confluence of fibs, a clear range low with multiple tests, and a 100-day SMA.

I've been waiting for this big break for some time, but I'm hesitating now on the entry. I really didn't consider the formation from the August swing low as a possible heads and shoulders formation. Now that we are on the move, it seems important to consider this possible setup, as it could turn a range break into a false break if the neckline (around 0.86) holds up. For caution's sake, I'll wait for 0.86 to fall; but waiting as the pair falls eats into the profit potential of the move...
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hefeiddd

Ok, here is yet another comm that I find interesting: NZDUSD. However, this one isn't as interesting as a breakout candidate, rather I like it as a good, partial hedge in my other long-US dollar comm pairs (USDCAD and AUDUSD).

It's true that NZDUSD has marked a dramatic swing high, but I see support as far more considerable than the other two pairs; so its chances of holding up against the dollar run is greater and therefore represents a better candidate for an anti-greenback position and far more effective hedge quotient.

I have an entry stop order for a small size position at 0.7705 against risk of 80 points. We have an intraday pivot level there and a confluence of fibs in that area. Placing a slightly larger long order down at 0.7650 where a rising trend is meeting the 50-day SMA and fibs. That position will be set against only 30 points risk. And, the true, full-sized hedge will go in just above 0.7500 (haven't decided the exact level yet) as that represents the channel floor and a strong psychological level. Risk will be kept to 40-50 points.

If everything works out, the NZDUSD losses (if the dollar's run continues) will be negligible to returns on successful AUDUSD and USDCAD trades (not to mention my dollar exposure in the other majors).
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I was knocked out of my USDCAD long for 60 points, but the pull back to 1.0025 seemed like a good reason to get back in long. So, back in at 1.0045 with 65 points risk and targets similar to what I was initially looking at.

I'll keep with my medium term upside bias for USDCAD until the rising trend channel is broken; and since I'm long from the bottom of the channel, I'll be pretty confident in my stop.

NZDUSD is at the bottom of its own rising trend channel as well. Jumped in with full size at 0.7535 with risk of 60 points and an initial target 100 points up. This is one of the few anti-dollar positions I have on right now.
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hefeiddd

USDCAD "blue line"
following the cross of the blue line, currently long with stop-loss at 0.9992
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hefeiddd

Look's like this Evening Doji Star has set off a CAD Rally
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hefeiddd

Heikin-Ashi suggests more downside to come
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hefeiddd

We we finally got our first taste of USDCAD back below parity in more than two weeks. I was looking at that 40 point sell off over the past half hour; and just as quickly as it came, it disappeared. IMO, this is certainly a reflection of low liquidity conditions. And, under these circumstances, I don't think a USDCAD dipping its toe back below 1.0 is a sign that is a break on its way - though the descending triangle certainly suggests that.

Still holding my split long position and still in the red. Leaving stops be, but given these choppy conditions I wouldn't be surprised if someone takes advantage of the low liquidity to drive through stops. We'll have to see....
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Still holding the USDCAD position and this slow slide lower is not very pleasant. I would have preferred a sharp break and some kind of momentum to quickly bump me out so I can have peace of mind. Nothing doing though. I have to sit here and watch it slowly approach my stop loss. I really dislike holiday trading for this pair. Big traders in both Canada and the US are already off their desks or are otherwise squaring their book.

As a standby though, I still like the daily chart of NZDUSD. Good trend channel and three begrudging dojis (volatility aberration, not a valid candle stick pattern). If we truly see range conditions next week, I could see the rising support from the channel bottom directing a modest retracement.

Anyone else looking at NZDUSD?
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hefeiddd

Long NZDUSD is (IF) a short-term trade, as it seems to me to be in a downtrend
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hefeiddd

Sometimes it's better to look at a chart upside down...

Once more into the deep dear friends....

We will go below .90 USD/CAN.

All this bullishness on the USD has been because of a brief up tick in the usdx.
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hefeiddd

I'm pretty impressed with the USDCAD climb. Back above parity - and from where I'm standing - the balance of power seems to be back in bulls hands.

Fundamentally, I'm not looking at anything from the US or Canadian calendars that will interfere with USDCAD's rally until Friday's Canadian trade report and employment data crosses the wires. I'm not worried about the US docket until next week's frontline inflation data, which will generate concern surrounding the end of January FOMC rate decision.

As for technicals, perhaps this Canadian data will coincide with spot around 1.0080 (where the falling trend on my graph falls) or 1.0250. If that is the case, I will be looking for some really good volatility and trade positioning. Whether it is a breakout or retracement, a data-push near big support or resistance levels is my favorite situation for setting up short-term trades.
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Good call Big Mike. There was a good pop in AUDUSD from that 0.87 base.

I am thinking about shorting around the current spot rate though as we are coming up on the top of a falling trend channel. The risk/reward of such a trade looks pretty attractive, but I'm concerned with the total value of risk. I may look to reduce my risk by taking a short around 0.8820 and perhaps putting in a short limit entry order up around 0.8865 where there is another round of resistance. Of course, this could reduce my return if the channel top holds up against intraday tests, but better to have have a little less return and less risk.

Are you going to look for continuation to the upside?
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hefeiddd

Well, sticking it out with the AUDUSD range proved ill-fated. Bernanke's comments this morning more or less did that position in. Was stopped out on my reduced short position.

On the other hand, my NZDUSD long has picked up steam. I have been sitting on this position since early December, on the basis that we were at the bottom of a broad channel. While it was drifting for a while there, the pair is finally gaining steam now. Already took profit on half the position at 0.7850. Gonna hold on to the second half an see how far in this channel we can get. Moved the stop up so that the second half stop will net me at least 125 points.Attached Images





It looks like we are coming on yet another falling trendline. However, I'm sticking with my bullish bias. USDCAD has formed a pretty consistent rising trend channel from the 12/28 low. The trendline hardly seems a prominent technical level, considering it is only now working on a third touch (a requirement for confirming a trendline), so my overall bullishness isn't really being challenged.

On the other hand, if we fail here, it would be a lower swing low and then 0.9750 will become a very important level to watch to determine the medium-term trend of USDCAD. On the other hand, if we can close above 1.0150, I think we will easily move above 1.0250.
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hefeiddd

True they are not completely in support but possible. Hearing about the economy everyday on the news may have made my short seem a little better than it actually was. Oh how the media can sway a decision.

Edit: The buy was just above the 61.8 fib line but thought I would add a daily chart which shows some divergence incase anyone was interested.Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

I can see your point on a long term chart. I am still short on this pair for the short term since it is running into some fib resistance on the hourlies.Attached Images

hefeiddd

USD/CAD Continues Lower
Hey all,

The USD/CAD has stalled at a rising support line. I'm looking for a bounce/consolidation over the next few hours at which point the decline should resume.

Any Comments?
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hefeiddd

Perhaps this pattern will help
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USDCAD weekly
I guess we will know soon enough which way the wedge will be broken.
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hefeiddd

'Conflicting' patterns
Bullish on 60 minute and bearish on 240 minute simultaneously..........!
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hefeiddd

USDCAD daily
I updated this pattern, overlaid the more recent pattern.
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AUDUSD daily
I feel that the trend is down, that the next up move will be a retrace and then further down....

I am assuming that the March 13 high was the first lower high after an uptrend.
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