一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

AUDUSD 240 minute
I think we are seeing price retrace up for a bit and then the downtrend to resume
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NZDUSD daily
I am looking at the double top Feb 27 and Mar 14, noting that Mar 14 is a bit lower... and that could indicate a change in trend from up to down. so that the next swing high would be lower than Mar 14... and then the downward move is confirmed.

There is potential for AB = CD
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Bearish Pattern
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hefeiddd

Been a while since I commented in this thread, but I think the commodity bloc is setting up with some interesting positions.

USDCAD is turning higher off a technical confluence, but the advance has been held back by the breakout from crude. But today's price action should give everyone pause in believing that the correlation between crude and USDCAD is perfect. I'm not saying the relation isn't close, but only to a point. I don't think USDCAD will surpass 1.04 until there is a sign that crude will drop below $100 and stay there for a while. Real question right now: can this rebound from 1.0050 be worth more than 50 points for me...

NZDUSD is similarly interesting. The pair has rallied impressively since the open of the week, but this move is rooted in little fundamental support - and even the winds of risk sentiment are light. I was thinking about short in this area (a trend, 20-day and 50-day SMA and 61.8% fib are all in the vicinity), but I already have risk exposure with a GBPJPY position.

Anyone else looking for at a com bloc trade?
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hefeiddd

ok ok, I think we have thrown enough insults around. Don't make me exercise the moderator powers people = )

Looking back to the markets, I recently took a long position in USDCAD. We are in a very big wedge and a breakout is likely to trigger soon. I'm hoping that this break will spell the end of the 1.0350-0.97 range shortly after the wedge falls.

As for direction, I'm liking the long side fundamentally and technically. Technically, I'm going with the medium trend. What's more, we have the 1.00 pivot level as additional support. And, to top the whole thing off, the risk/reward is best to the upside since a break to the upside will quickly run into range resistance - and if that falls, we could be looking at a major leg of a larger wave.

Fundamentally, we just saw the US economy hold steady through the first quarter (even though the forecast doesn't look too hot) and the Canadian economy dip back into the red. What's more, the credit markets are balancing out and that could help revive the dollar as the potential rebound in risk appetite would lead traders to bargains (ie the dollar) and the US economy would stand to benifit the most from stabilized financial markets. Furthermore, risk appetite rebounds, speculators will be more confident to invest away from the overexposed buy-side assets of the past few months (oil, gold) and further add to USDCAD strength as the commodity argument fades. finally, if we start to see the dollar rally, the price of crude priced in dollar will likely fall and that could further add to momentum.

Watch this break to the downside....
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I ended up taking profit on my second lot yesterday at 1.0220. There are too many trendlines in the region, the weekend was coming and we weren't seeing the build up for a break up that I would like. So, I just took good profit and I'll keep an eye out for the eventual breakout at the start of next week (probably fit in some orders in case the break occurs when I'm sleeping).

I'm also taking an interest in AUDUSD. The pair has formed a base around 0.9275/300 and recent highs are getting lower and lower. Looking around the majors, it looks like the dollar is gaining its footing with some major breaks in EURUSD, USDCHF and USDJPY. If this strength keeps up, the high yielders may be next to yield and there is a clear trigger point for AUDUSD in my opinion.

Anyone else have any grand schemes for the comm bloc?
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hefeiddd

I'm with you John, but just waiting for the Asia start to get a clearer picture. Attached is the daily chart with the technicals I go by.

Ravi KalavarAttached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Attached is the daily chart of USD/CAD. After posting a double bottom, looks like there will be one more double bottom at parity, before shooting upwards.

Anyone has better analysis?

Ravi Kalavar
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hefeiddd

Here is a couple looks at the monthly chart
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AUDUSD 720 minute

I see some divergence on stochs and macd, if this persists we could see a rise in price
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hefeiddd

I'm looking to short usdcad. There is a fib cluster at about 1.0150, which is a retrace of the move from a high of 1.0240 to 1.0000. Looks like price bounced off the fibs and looking to go lower as I suspect a usd retrace of recent strength.






UsdCad blew thru the fibs at 1.0150. It looks like 1.0200 could be an important number with several fibs working out here. I would like to see price roll over and then go short.

hefeiddd

I read the article on dailyfx.com on USD/CAD and I just could not agree with it.

I think USD/CAD is headed lower. I have shorted the pair. My decision to short is based on:

1. The USD/CAD has been in a downtrend for the last 5+ years.
2. On a weekly chart its still a down trend.
3. For the last 6 months it has formed a Head and Shoulder pattern.
4. From mid march 08 it has been struggling to make a higher high.

So the fact that its in a long term down trend and the short term up-trend which started from around late 07/starting of 08 is unable to make a higher high for multiple weeks, opens the possibility that the big downtrend is again going to play. Fundamentally given the prices and global demand of oil, minerals and commodities makes CAD very strong.

What will happen only time will tell but any comments will be appreciated.
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hefeiddd

Given the massive declines we saw in 2007, I see the price action since the beginning of the year as a simple consolidation period (see chart 1). Could we see another drop to 0.9950? Sure. However, I think that when we see USD/CAD finally breakout of this massive range, it will be to the upside.
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hefeiddd

Doc1.doc (94.5 KB, 1524 views)

Commercial v Speculative Buying Information?
Please forgive me if this post does not conform to the guidelines of the forum topic.

In a fantastic post by Jamie Saettele under the "Trader Sentiment and Positioning" section of the forum, there is reference to the below chart illustrating commercial v speculative buying.

Is this information readily available over the net, and if so, where?

Many Thanks.
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hefeiddd

Do Kathy and Boris use TD Sequential or such indicators I have always been very fascinated by Tom De Mark's TD Sequential Indicator. From time and again I have found it to be very effective in predicting exhaustion points with pin point precision. Do Kathy and Boris also use this in their trading process ? I have heard that some top fund managers in London swear by it.


Now I just wanted to check it on the DOW especially since it has been making all the market noise these days. Well it wasnt a surprise when i tried TD Sequential on monthly and daily charts.

On the monthly we have already completed the golden 13 in April so we are merely on the reversal month though we are above the last month's close I wouldnt doubt that the end of the month would see us well below it. Confirmation that we are near comes from the daily which shows that we are fast approaching 13. (5/7) was the #11. So 2 more to go before we see the big plunge (.. or should it be ) for currency traders esp Cross and Dollar Bears. There is also a lot of fundamentals and economic reasons to believe that we are indeed near the top.

Once again though Kathy and Boris. Your daily analysis is absolutely superb and gives me a lot of market insight in my daily trading so a BIG THANK YOU FOLKS !
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hefeiddd

Doc1.doc (115.0 KB, 117 views)

USD/JPY Short Term reversal ?
Hi Boris and Cathy,

Once again folks thanks for your time and did I say I love every article that gets published on dailyfx.com!..

My question is about the USD/JPY rally. As of 5/18 2 AM EST. it was languishing in the 121.25-35s for a couple of hours. On the charts there are multiweek 61.8 % Fib extensions coming in the 121.15-20s area which possibly explains for the consolidation. Considering that we are also forming a possible head and shoulder with the upper shoulder line in the same area. Do you folks think Dollar is headed downtown for the short term ?? this maybe conflicts with dailyfx outlook of a longterm higher dollar (Maybe u folks are friendly with Treasury SecHank Paulson )). Considering some of the fundamentals also being in favor : Dow fighting similar 61.3 % in the 13480s making consistent lower volume days. Also we have the memorial day weekend coming next week aka Oil spikes ?(where historically dollar has had some sharp moves ?).. and oh well also Chinese markets making parabolic rise.

All said and done if everything seems so obvious why does the dollar show undefiable strenght.

Lastly there were some Fed report which showed that MoM Money supply has been increasing. Doesnt higher money supply mean weaker currency ? Maybe I am wrong :?

Thanks again for the great work
ForexInsights

forexinsights.blogspot.com
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hefeiddd

Using COT Report To Forecast FX Movements kathy lein.doc (77.5 KB, 157 views)

Updated Calendar_08-03-2007.pdf (53.0 KB, 69 views)

fxcm.pdf (45.8 KB, 52 views)

QuestionToBoris1220.bmp (371.8 KB, 81 views)

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-19 15:08 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Hi Kathy and Boris,

I just finished (and enjoyed) reading Kathy's book, and just began reading Boris'

Last night (Wednesday night) the AUD/USD rallied bout 40some pips after AUD employment data came out better than expected. Slowly after, it began to level off and the candlestick wicks' range got shorter and shorter. I looked back on previous breakouts and saw that after each rally there was a period of (retracement?) where the pair reversed. Without another news event in the near future, how often does a breakout retrace? and what signals (or kind of candlesticks) should i look for to go against the short term trend? Do you guys trade this period after a news release when the breakout reaches a "max"?

Second question, please see attached usd/cad graph 7am est.
This is the 5 minute graph from this morning's CAD employment data. It came out at +9.3k and unemployment at 6.1%. This I believe was lower than expected, but pretty close to expectations. At first there was a sell off of the dollar (why did this happen?), but at 5 minutes the trend didn't continue(why did this happen?), so I stood aside. However the next 5 minutes the pair reversed and had (engulfed?) the entire down trend from the 5 minutes prior (why did it reverse?). The new candle opened above the last candle's close, so I went long on the usd/cad at 1.0699 looking for a 10pip gain (where should have I placed my stop?). I gained 10 pips and i exited (which is good). Did I do this right or did I just get lucky?

Thanks again!
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hefeiddd

STOPS
I placed a Long trade on July 2nd with EUR/USD. I placed this trade at the same time it was placed in the SIGNALS(POSITION SUMMARY) on DailyFX+. My entry,stop and limit were the same. Later the FX+ position stop was tightened to 1.3575. I likewise changed my stop to the same. At about 2:30am Eastern time on Friday, the low price hit exactly 1.3575 and closed my position. However, the FX+ position was not closed. Later, about 8:30am the price went even lower and closed the FX position.

On Friday 7/6, I again place a Sell trade on GBP/USD based on the FX trade placed at about the same time. The stop FX+ indicated their stop was set at 2.0140. To avoid the previous problem I had with the above EUR/USD trade, I placed my stop at 2.0141. One pip wider. At about 10:35am the high price hit exactly 2.0141 and closed my position. However, again the FX+ position was not closed although the FX+ stop was set at 2.0140. One pip under the high of 2.0141.

There was no mention by FX+ that they had changed the stop and at this time their GBP/USD trade is still on.

Could you please explain how the FX stop is not hit at the stop they are indicating. I have attached the graphs of these to trades.

Thanks
LB
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hefeiddd

Bollinger Bands -complete Studies
Editing or corrections are invited from the Moderators but this attachement, featuring EUR/CAD may prove a useul screen shot for assisting in the use of Bollinger Bands...

Nickr2650
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hefeiddd

SMA MACD Combo
Hello Kathy & Boris,

I am a newbie in Forex as far as technical analysis.

I am testing one of your high probability setups called SMA MACD Combo on AUD / USD at April 11, 2008. Can you help to confirm if my understanding of this strategy is correct.

I used AUD/USD hourly chart in April 11, 2008. The price drops below SMA 50 and SMA 100 by more than 10 pips, and MACD has been down just two bars previously. I did a short at $92.78, stop loss 5 previous highest bars at $93.38. Price target at two times risk at $91.6 (half lot), and the second lot at 10 pips above SMA 50 later on, if I don't get stopped out.

I attach image of the time I did it (hope the image works and shows).

Can you please confirm if this is the right setup?

Thank you very much.
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hefeiddd

Weekly Trading Lesson: The Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Written by Thomas Long, FX Power Course Instructor

The Relative Strength Index or RSI was developed by J. Welles Wilder in 1978. It has since become an extremely useful and popular momentum oscillator. The RSI compares the magnitude of a market's recent gains to the magnitude of its recent losses and turns that information into a number that ranges from 0 to 100. A reading of 70 or higher is considered overbought with an increasing chance of a reversal to the downside, while a reading of 30 or below is considered oversold with an increasing chance of a reversal to the upside. But not all of the time and that is what can get new traders into trouble. Like any technical indicator, they are really designed to help you time your entry, but without a clear idea of what a trading opportunity looks like, too often new traders just use the extreme moves by the RSI to above 70 or below 30 to automatically signal their trade. The chart below shows how the moves below 30 resulted in reversals and good buying opportunities. However, there were more moves above 70 which did not offer as many potentially profitable trades even though there were more occurrences. The difference is the direction of the trend. We always teach new traders to first identify the direction of the trend on the daily chart and then to only take trades in that direction. I used this activity of the EUR/USD as an example of a strong uptrend where we should only be looking for buys. In a strong uptrend, the market will move up to overbought and stay there for long periods of time. That is what makes it an uptrend. But in that uptrend, we should look for pullbacks off of the highs down to support as potential buying opportunities. This is where the use of the RSI as it moves to below 30 and then up through 30 helps with our entry. We first need to identify the trend, find the potential trade, and then use the indicator to time our entry. On their own, technical indicators give off far too many false signals, but when used correctly, they can be a valuable addition to any trader’s approach.
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hefeiddd

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD)
Written by Thomas Long, FX Power Course Instructor


Developed by Gerald Appel, Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is one of the simplest and most reliable indicators available. It is calculated by plotting the difference between two moving averages and then adding another moving average to the difference. Like most technical indicators, these tools are meant to help us time our entry rather than predict where the market will go. Here is a daily chart of the USD/JPY with an MACD plotted with the common values of 12,26,9. You can see that the crossovers of the MACD line and the MACD Signal Line, which is the moving average of the MACD, offered good entries for selling opportunities. However, the key here and with all technical indicators is that we are only taking the sell signals since the direction of the daily trend is down. So we look to sell rallies up to a resistance level in this downtrend. After that happens, we can see the crossover and the subsequent selling pressure which could have led to winning trades. One of the keys to increasing your chance of success on these setups is to place your protective stop above the high after entry and then to look for twice that risk in profit potential for your 1:2 risk:reward ratio. If you are risking 100 pips, look for at least 200 pips in profit. These setups on the daily chart can be solid about half of the time, so you have to make sure the losing trades do not keep you from being profitable in the long run. Using a 1:2 risk:reward ratio can be the difference.
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hefeiddd

Taking a look at a different pair, this is a 240 minute EURGBP chart. This pair tends to stick to ranges, which make Fibonacci levels particularly useful. EURGBP has tested the 78.6% retracement level of the decline from 0.7017 - 0.6919 at 0.6996. However, the long wicks near that level suggest some hesitance to move much higher in the near-term, and we could see the pair pull lower towards 0.6950.

However, with both the ECB and BOE meeting on Thursday, we could see substantial volatility on any commentary that reflects a severe bias, especially on the EUR side. On a pure fundamental basis, I'd say there's upside potential for EURGBP to break above 0.7000.
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Following up on my last post....the EURJPY just reversed off of the 61.8. whether or not this top holds is another question but this does show just how well fibonacci works..the eurjpy dropped 90 pips in 29 minutes
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