一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

a quick view before going long
the 50% fibo retracement of 207.97 - 193.52 is at the same level as the 61.8% fibo retracement of 205.04 - 193.52 both at @ 200.26 so i will wait for a clear break above this level before going long, besides we just need another bad news to turn things over so a tight stop will be wise

here's the chart
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hefeiddd

Gap filled So you think you know how forex works?

Somebody needs to remind me..duh

We just filled the gap down on sunday night! Leave no gap unfilled I always say!
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hefeiddd

Alternative outcome Let's just say for now that we have bottomed at 192.60. All factors seem to be in place. We had a capitulation, we have some dramatic dynamics in all markets, dollar may be stabalizing. And the carry may be back as a result.

Yesterdays price action if viewed from this perspective, suggests that Wave 5 of C did end at 192.60. The price expansion yesterday was significant, and the reversal after the fed looks to me as a possible trend change signal.

If THIS is the case then shorting may be very, very deadly. Perhaps we had a minor wave 1 or A up (60 min) to 201.77. We could be currently correcting in a wave B or 2 which may have already finished at 195.78. If so we should study the move off of this mornings lows to look for possible clues as to whether we are moving impulsively or correctively. Going down to the 5 min chart, it is possible that new lows are already off the table. If price holds on a closing basis above 196.50, look for long opportunities
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hefeiddd

Bearish Pattern
this pattern should be successful as ratios are precise. we will have to see what happens
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Update
Divergence is there vividly, as the pattern matures I am almost certain we will see the decline
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hefeiddd

technical analysis daily gbpjpy
Hi all

i see a potential pullback till 202 ( fibo retracement 61.8%)
before a new move down till 190/189.50 area (fibo extension 138.2)
see attached chart

kr
jer
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hefeiddd

GBPJPY daily
Point & Figure
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hefeiddd

Dilly,

From a Wave perspective, I think you are right on. Posted is the weekly chart. Price has exceede the 161.8 % of 1 and the RSI is way Oversold, so I think 3 may be over. Just a guess!!

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hefeiddd

Gbpchf / Gbpjpy
Interesting relationship... ,may pull the gbpjpy higher in nitro-like fashion.
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hefeiddd

gbpjpy daily - updated daily technical analysis
update of post 4972 ; 2008 March 24 20 PM GMT
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see screen attached

kr
Jer
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hefeiddd

Update to Post #4977
This is an update from Post #4977. I posted a weekly chart then. Below is a 240min chart. Went long at 196.00. Since moved stop to break even. Looking for a return to 208 - 210 before the next leg down.
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hefeiddd

Dear Dilly,

The only thing that I see is we are near a nice big breakout....wish I knew which direction!

Though the chances of an upside breakout are slightly more than the downside if we stay out of the bad news...the upside may be shaky beyond 204, but if UK news comes good on Friday, we very well might shift to 205+ area.

But, I've this feeling that we will briefly touch 204+ (get all longs roped in) and then crash like crazy to 190 or lower...

So, staying out for the time being...why try to make a trade where one doesn't exist? Long on a break of 201 w 203.50 target is a possibility and short at 203.50 w 190 target on failure at 204 is another possibility...on the lower side, long at bounce off 199 w 203.50 target and a short on break of 196 w 190 target are possibilities..but no clear signal at the moment...

Here is what I see as of now...
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hefeiddd

gbpjpy H4 technical analysis
Hi all

new possible correction underway till low of march, 14th (203.00 level)
- we tested low channel today
- gbpusd will certainly outperform usdjpy

see attached chart

kr
jerome
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hefeiddd

here it goes again
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hefeiddd

gbpjpy H4 updated
Tomas

I agree with U
either 200/70 level is holding and back down
either it breaks and go till rf61.8% at 202.06 and 203.80( loaw march 11)



Kr
jerome
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hefeiddd

DAILY.doc (85.0 KB, 44 views)

GBPJPY 5 minute
Bearish Bat
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GBPJPY 5 minute
Bearish AB = CD
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hefeiddd

Dear Mara,

b/e is break-even... I think the pair needs to leave 198 handle to create some move either way...197.50 and 198.50 would be the levels that need to be breached for some follow-through...

I'm looking for a long if 198.50 is broken, otherwise will wait for 197.50 breach for a short...
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hefeiddd

Volume Charts P&F
Each of these time frames is bullish (for now)
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GBPJPY 60 minute
The one hour chart appears quite bearish. even though shorter time frames are bullish
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careful if u are long, it may be about to reverse....

I am attaching a 120 minute chart showing that direction is south.. although my shorter time frames are still rising, there is Macd divergence on each
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hefeiddd

Maratha......

She will not make us cheese cake if you tell her you have re entered long........!!!!!!!

She is going to try to get 300 pips tonight.....
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Maratha, you were correct about the 200 mark....!!!
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hefeiddd

gbpjpy H1
see comments on chart
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hefeiddd

This pair is extremely tricky. It can reverse any direction very quickly so both longs and shorts must be careful with it. My expectation is that the pair will attempt to reach the upper band as shown below before it retraces back to lower 198's
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