一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Dear All,

Another week is starting off...do we feel bullish?
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hefeiddd

Dear JohnM,

Are you watching the Shi channels? The hourly is headed up and is intersecting with downward 4-hrly at 229 handle on GBPJPY...USDJPY has very similar structure with intersection at 118.50 level...so does EURJPY and GBPUSD...hmmm...

These channels are pointing out that upside might be limited for JPY crosses, but GBPJPY might show a pop to 229 if GBPUSD tests the intersection @ 1.9350/75 again.
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hefeiddd

Dear All,

Here is an interesting chart comparison...I'm not a user of Elliott waves, but as you can see, we clearly have waves 1-4 completed on all four pairs and wave 5 in progress...if we then look at the destination for this wave 5, it looks to be below 221 handle for GBPJPY...any comments?
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hefeiddd

This is interesting...Nikkei is down 400 points and GBPJPY is up 100 PIPs...let's see how far this imbalance continues...

Closed my shorts at 224.73 for ~60 PIPs...current upmove could test 225.70 before further down move...should be an exciting Asian session...

PS: Also took a scalp long at 224.80 with limit at 225.50...let's see. In the attached charts, all JPY pairs are bouncing up, with GBPJPY having upside potential due to GBPUSD bouncing up as well...what do you guys think?
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hefeiddd

Getting ready to try long on break of 227...ok, long @ 227.05..let's see...ready to close the trade if price doesn't follow through the 227 break...
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hefeiddd

Hi all,

Been spending some time thinking and trying to re-focus on what works for me and what doesn't

Some pretty good moves on Geppy lately. Last week caught some long pips from 226.60 to 227.55. Then went short from 227.55 but got stopped out just before the 200+ pip reversal southward. Arghhhh ... but better safe than sorry. Just been watching since ...

For what it's worth (yeah, wrong forum as well but I have read that some trade GBPUSD as well) I just did some studying of longer term charts and (to me at least) the GBPUSD W1 really stands out. That is a pretty nice channel with the bottom line hugged 2 weeks before the bounce higher this week/today.
Held 5 lots long from 1.94xx going into the CPI announcement today (could had been a BIG poke in the eye as well) and chucked at 9495, 9545 with one more set to go at 9630. Will hold the remaining two and see how price develops within the channel.
Pretty long term stuff but when I first started trading FX on demo that was how I raked in some pretty good results. Got sidetracked since ... greed, pressure, looking for fast money ...

Any thoughs?

Thanks an best regards,
Chinaman
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hefeiddd

Hello all,

Trying a short on GBPJPY from 230...based on overbought hourly studies...there is also a nice upward channel formed after last sessions high..visible on 4-hr chart...
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hefeiddd

I hear you. I have a buy hedge on... limit stop for the buy hedge @231.50
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hefeiddd

Good morning, all!

Wanted to stay up for UK data excitement last night, but chose to sleep instead! Just opened the terminal to see a nice break of 231.50 level...and as luck would have it, was able to long the pair at 231.57...reason being that if 50% fib (somewhere around 231.50-231.75 range) is taken out, then it should act as a nice support going into the weekend..

Also, the daily studies are still bullish...if you guys use Raghee Horner's wave then check out the wave on daily...very bullish turn...well, let me post the chart...

Last time there was such a turn, the pair moved from 205 level to 211 within a week or so...so, the current break of wave might also be good for 500-700 PIPs...let's see...
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hefeiddd

Good morning folks!

Good that the pair did test 231.66, but these days, I'm being extra cautious on trades in this pair so ran with my 10 PIPs earlier!

Now, entering aother short trade at 231.65...target 229.65 based on the daily charts...the trade might be premature as the daily candle has not closed yet...but chances look good based on confirmation from 4-hr charts...

This could very well be the next big ride down, but can't say as of now...if 229.50 is broken then the chances of a big rally are higher...let's see
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hefeiddd

I'm hoping we can breakthrough 228.75 which is where I'm showing strong support as noted from the flat section of the kijun on the 4 hour chart.
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hefeiddd

Guys

This is my perceived channel and some S/R, fibo levels.
We seem to be right in the middle which is why I'm unsure of direction. I favour the downside - just my gut feeling. We may be set for another test of 231.50 first (as I type) and I think tonights Jap data may be a catalyst. Also possible sneaky Jap selling (buying back JPY) at the last minute before April 1st - I for one don't want to be made a fool.
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hefeiddd

Here is what I'm seeing on the daily chart now...either the pair bounces off 233 handle or sinks below 230...what do you guys think?
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hefeiddd

hi...

Maratha..if your looking at those S/R levels...for me the ma could result in a bounce also which is supported by the middle S/R level at around 233.86...

hefeiddd

Hello All!

Closed my long at 234.40..short is still open, actually added to my short at 234.50 just now. As the daily ADX has flattened just below 30, I expect more range trading for Asian and European session.

I'm short due to 4-hrly studies turning over from overbought levels at the moment...but, for the time being just expecting a 50 PIP move...if the turn develops into a trend, then will reinitiate a short on break of 233...

There is a good chance of a downward move..look at the attached chart and channels...

PS: Somehow the regular image upload is not working...will figure it out soon...
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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - Keynes

hefeiddd

Footsie coming down this morning.

US equity futures also down and looking for a lower open.

Let's see how/if that effects the Yen later today.

Crude also looking to base and has potential for higher which would also weigh on stocks.
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hefeiddd

Hi John

I posted a question to Kate on the "welcome to the forum" thread this morning, she posted a reply which explains the current position.

Edit : well currently geppy holding below the broken TL. It's already tested it once on this current pop up but so far holding below, let's see where it ends up on the close of play today.

No change in positions for me atm. flat on cable and short on geppy. add on short orders waiting @ 234.65 233.40 and 232.60 hedge long order @ 236.08 bid in case it tries one more time for 237 although I can't see that happening with cable at these dizzy heightsAttached Images

hefeiddd

As I've posted earlier, I think we're headed to retesting the broken uptrend line on the dailies around 238.50-239 area. It can bounce off that resistance as we're fairly overbought at this point. Now, if that breaks, the next possible scenario would be hitting 241 again forming the double top and then dropping. Not sure how far we'll drop, but it bounced hard off the 50% retrace level last time, maybe we'll hit 618 this time.

Plus we can't forget good ol Cable pushing for $2, although, it confuses me how sometimes USDJPY pulls Geppy more, and sometimes Cable affects it more.

EDIT: Hmm..looks like we're testing it now actually, pic below.

hefeiddd

That's the .382 fib retracement point for the uptrend these past couple of days.

hefeiddd

Well, the basics of it is:
EMA5-Lime
EMA8-pink
EMA13-yellow
EMA21-Aqua
EMA34-Red
When they line up in this order and point upwards, it's a buy signal, and short signal is reverse of the line order. A short signal is showed by the pink vertical line on the chart, a buy signal is the vertical line of the chart.

The main purpose of this system to to show me which way the price will move, but doesn't tell me much in terms of magnitude which is why I just aim for 25-50 pips, stay on the safe side and cash out.

It's not really a MA crossover system, but each serves as confirmation for another. Only when sellers stop selling, and buyers start buying will all EMAs turn upwards and vice versa, so in a way, you could say it's a trend sniffer. It is a highly subjective system, but it's worked very well for me since I took what I knew of indicators and came up w/ this.