一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Hi everyone...

Just registrated... Did not read compleatly thread but maybe my Neowave count will help for further discussion where USDJPY is (by my oppinion) heading...

So... My trade (hopefully) will be LONG for impulse wave C finishing zig-zag

Regards from Croatia!




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hefeiddd

Here is what my current NW count suggest...

...think this down move is part of an triangle wave b of an flat... so everythink is possible... for example that wave e is truncated and that usd experience strong up burst or to see another lowest low to test start of wave a...

however... one important guidline should be that the time duration of this complex b wave should not be smaller than duration of wave a (which was zig-zag as we know by now)...

regards to all
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hefeiddd

hi all ,chart is clear
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hi john can explain to me why CHFJPY BUY !!!!?
BUT CHART SHOW SELL
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hefeiddd

hi American Trader i saw to weekly candle chart USDYEN today ,i faced to a interesting pattern a major candlestick continuation pattern with name falling three method .this isnot signal a reversal pattern . and the Falling Three Method signal is way of confirming that attempted penetration will fail, and that the trend will continue. Recognizing continuation patterns is important
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chart is clear
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hefeiddd

Dow
American Trader what is your point of view about Dow ? also in the time h4 have large correction
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hefeiddd

USD/JPY Analysis
Hi,

Could someone please review and comment on my usd/jpy chart evaluation please?

I'm learning and would like to know if i'm making any progress.

Note to traders: this chart should not be used as a basis for trading unless confirmed by experienced analysts!

My target for the end of wave 5 is 100.35

Thanks for the replies,
fx_addict
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hefeiddd

I would like to produce a set-up on EURJPY. The medium term to long term bearish potential is great.

Under this count, I consider that 170 is a barried that topped out EURJPY. In its rally from 149, traced 5 waves up with a truncated fifth wave (failed to make a new high).

If my wave count is right, prices have completed wave 1, 2 so far. and the market now is in wave 3, of 3 of 3 probably.

This means we will begin soon the fastest and sharpest acceleration lower in the cross. and I am looking at sub low 150s in this wave, followed by a move higher and ultimately to come down to 140-145 zone in wave fifth to complete wave 3 before any major rebound rally may begin.

Also given the count is correct, we are still at early stages of a big downtrend in the making. So I will sell into any shadowed rally next week.

More evidence of a downtrend just on the corner:

159.20 which topped and reversed the cross is an important fibonacci. signaling a completion of wave ii of 3 of 3.

Wave 2 within big wave 3 topped out at 161.30 which is 61% of wave 1 within big wave 3. Common relationship.

If all mentioned are correct, minimum expectations for a drop below 152 to complete wave iii of 3 and if wave v won't be truncated, I even expect drop to 140 area ultimately.

This move probably takes weeks and months to be drawn on chart though.
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hefeiddd

Here is the count, five waves down look complete. and price should correct higher in the 104 area before the next bear leg begins.
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hefeiddd

The long term chart suggests a test in the 80 zone.
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hefeiddd

Thanks Tmac for telling me how to turn my charts into a JPG. I took a break from the market except to make a small 150 pip profit on the USD/JPY's wave C on the long side. I only had a small position as I don't like to trade against the trend, but with wave b dipping so low and therefore risk being tight, I decided to put in a small long position. Technically, this pair's rise may have ended as a 5 waves up to complete wave C can be counted. However the 5th wave was pathetic and I wouldn't doubt another push to the 38% fib level before reversing. I put in a short position at 103.03 already and will continue to sell into rallies for the next move to new lows.

Stochastics on the 2 hour chart are pushing down, and the time frames smaller than that are dragging heavy, indicating that even if this pair rises some more, it will be weak and very temporary.

Time to start getting short again and selling rallies.

American-T
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The pair quickly reversed after I closed my positions between 101.10-101.20 and is now trading near 101.70. It appears quite possible that another new low is at hand before a significant bottom. The stochastics don't support me on this, but they usually don't at the tail end of big and long moves. The wave count does support this position though. Check out the chart and you can see that perhaps the new low this afternoon to almost 101 could be a wave iii within 5. So the immediate rally was just a wave iv as you can see it's unfolded in a nice three wave pattern so far and is close again to the fibo 38%. With risk being at 102.21 [end of small wave (i)], and the pair trading about 75 pips away from that, I think it's good to enter a small short position here against 102.40 with a target into the mid 100s. I'm in now at 101.60.

Any thoughts?

American-T
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hefeiddd

CORRECTION: the trade moved in my direction immediately and once I watched the wave structure unfold I noticed I mislabeled wave iii and iv. The final stages in wave iii are unfolding now, instead of unfolding earlier which is the way I labeled it in the prior post.

Bottom line, there should be one more bounce in a wave iv which should allow anyone to take a small short position against 102.21 with a target at the mid to low 100s.

American-T
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I thought I posted this earlier but it didn't print for some reason. I can't help but see the three wave rally that unfolded from the lows. Risk is clear above the corrective rally peak (stop loss at 101.35). However a break of 101.05 would bring strong caution and I'll be looking at the EUR/USD's move in response to the USD/JPY breaking 101.05 to see if the dollar is rallying in 5 waves and establishing new lows against the euro.

Bottom line: I'm short again at 100.56 against 101.35, but might exit early on break of 101.05.

American-T
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hefeiddd

I don't see a 5 wave dollar rally amongst any of the majors. I only see either a 5 wave dollar decline (AUD/USD) or 3 wave rallies. This implies that the dollar trend is still down, even though the rallies are fairly deep. But with the wild news day today, it's acceptable. I re-entered my short position on the USD/JPY at 99.97. I don't see the dollar rally lasting, and it looks corrective.

American-T
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Here's my Elliott Wave count shown on the 2hr chart. I see a W-X-Y correction possibly complete already, and prices declining from current levels. Or, this possible triangle/consolidation will lead to a terminal thrust in a small 5th wave of C of Y. Right now the price is currently at a prior wave iv and the 61% fibonacci level, so this a good reversal area. Or, a terminal thrust up out of the triangle may go to the 78% fibonacci level before reversing.

If counting this as a correction is wrong, and the dollar is in fact rallying in a subdivided impulse wave, then these reversal levels are irrelevant. However with the prolonged rally and the stochastics dragging, some pullback is due regardless.

So the way I see it, whether the dollar falls in a correction, or to resume the larger downtrend for one more final low, either way the dollar should pull back some.

I'm playing this very cautiously and stops are tight.

American-T
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hefeiddd

I see the USD/JPY in a similar situation as the USD/CHF charts I posted below. (These are reposts I originally placed in the EUR/USD forum):

The first two charts show bearish divergence on the stochastic oscillator. The 45 min chart (1st chart) shows that the stochastics don't want to come close to prior price level even though the price is virtually flat. On the 4hr chart (2nd chart) you can clearly see that the stochastics are trending down heavy, while price is staying flat. This tells me that the larger uptrend is weakening, but my experience tells me that stochastics are not a good indicator of exact turning points. The pair can drift higher in the short term. But the bottom line is that upside momentum is waning.

Check out my EW count on my next post for specific short term possibilities and let me know what you all think.
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hefeiddd

We're in a descending range here, looks ready to breakout and it's going to the downside IMO.

.99 is giving some resist at this time (8AM PST) but the pair has failed to make higher peaks accross the 100 mark, let alone have a solid close above it.

hefeiddd

usdjpy daily analysis
Dear all

I am a fibo specialist
doing quite well on trading

Here are my forecast on usdjpy on daily basis
I will give middle term outlook valid within 1 month period



Kr
Jerome
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hefeiddd

usdjpy H1 : -& S
head and shoulder formation ?
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hefeiddd

i have uploaded 2 charts and i hope they are visible.
anyways we have 2 different band both inclining to the north..
i have first resis at 103.36 ( not shown on charts followed by a better one at 103.64 where shorts could be entered.......

anyways there are strong supp around 100.05-20....
ok.. so i uploaded the third chart as well...... which shows if the high holds, we have aband dragging to around 101 lvl......

have your say and innput.......



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__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

hefeiddd

just paying safe, but scalping though....

rt now its either a break of 102.10 or 102.35 for 30-40 pips rally in each directions.. i have picked small long from 102.17, very tight small for a possible break of 102.35...
charts showing only minor TL with possibilty of moving mkt on either sides.Attached Thumbnails  



__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-16 08:27 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

yen want to take short entries aorudn 103.77
there are 2 charts
first basically shows the entry where i like to jump in, followed by the channel forming that if 103.77 strands we should hit around 100.60 and slightly below to 100...
depnds how things unfold in coming days
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hefeiddd

usdjpy daily technical update
see comments on chart
target at fibo extension 93 and 88 level
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