一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Cable
'THOUGHT I should share what I am looking at right now.

IS there anyone else here seeing what I think I am seeing on the CABLE?

EG
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hefeiddd

You may want to take your long profits from AUDCAD now Gizmo.. Wave "C" has now completed minimum expectations .. (It has Penetrated The Top Of Wave "A")Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Cable long term
All we can do with cable is wait!!!

Nopoint getting chopped about !!

A break of 19600 will give easy 500 pips or more, and the same if we break above. No point playing this at the moment IMO.

Weekly chart below.

regards

Ray
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hefeiddd

Here is a possible count I have for EUR/GBP. I see a wave 2 currently underway which should end very shortly and then into a wave 3 down. Anyone got the same?
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hefeiddd

Usdjpy
Under This Post I Put Up Earlier For USDJPY It is possible that we could see a large wave 2 retracement.. It is even possible that this wave 2 could extend as far up as the 118.00 Handle Since Wave 2 can retrace up to 99% of Wave 1.


Check Out This Chart..
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hefeiddd

Cable
I was having a hard time posting these earlier.

AM still holding on to my seat ( tight and scratching )...

Limits for me are set on the charts.

IT may look too radical and too aggressive, but it all depends on ones risk tolerance and limits they have set for their trades ( specially these type )

EG

PS...

I am not saying these counts are right. JUST posting what I am doing here. maybe someone can tell me if I am counting this wrongly and why.

of course aside from this being done on the 5min and the 1 minute timeframes which many dislike.
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hefeiddd

Eurusd
It seems there may be PARTY starting in EURUSD !! ... Last months candle closed leaving us a Reversal Candle At The End Of A Long Run Up that looks like it could be done.. There is a shooting star candle after a huge run up... To Strengthen the bearish scenario, the wick of last months candle is more then 2 times the length of the real body of the candle.. This is a clear sign the market has just rejected that area with force...
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hefeiddd

Audusd
Not sure if the labeled wave ii (of III) is done yet (my entry would change on a higher wave ii). It is possible that we may have one more push towards the 61.8% retracement as I can't tell for sure if the move up ended in five waves.

Note how the gann line contained the rally. We'll see if it continues to hold.

fxctrader - I like your chart of this morning and agree that this could all be a big A-B-C correction of the uptrend. However, the divergences that I posted last week on the weekly and daily charts show that a bigger move down is needed in either case to correct or obviously start a new trend.

Using your A-B-C scenario, then C = A @ .9224 and C = 1.618 x A @ .9070.

hefeiddd

Looks like this pair is staying nicely above the trend line on the daily and is still below the 38.2% fib. There may still be some upstide before wave B down.
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hefeiddd

EURUSD has completed a 5 wave bullish sequence of an elliott wave pattern and now must continue lower to complete a three wave correction to complete the larger move. There is a Shooting Star left on the chart from last months price action after a huge run up, This is a good sign of a reversal. This also comes at the major top which I have been watching for.

To Bolster the Bearish Scenario even further, Under the Gann Timing method, market's top out around the 6th and 7th years of a decade, and a bull market lasts approximately 5 to 7 years. From The beginning of this multi year rally that began In October 2000 to present, This Market has Put in a Swing High about seven and a half years into the Bull Trend, Price is Due To Collapse.

My Bearish Bias For This Pair Just went through the roof !Attached Images

hefeiddd

Gbpusd
Check out this count for GBPUSD on The Longer Term... I think there is a good possability here... I never really looked at this count for GBPUSD.... But from where I'm sitting, I'm seeing more USD Strength in other pairs, so why not this one too ! If this count is correct We shall see Cable DIVE in the next while ! Especially if it can close on a daily basis under that first support level again.. Have a look at the chart..
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hefeiddd

Eurusd
I may have the final counting here for a 7 Year Bull Run in EurUsd that could be finished.. This Shooting Star Has caught my attention loud and Clear ! ..
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hefeiddd

Aud/usd
Here are two views of the AUD/USD.

The first chart (4hr) shows the move as a correction off the multi-year high as an ABC correction, as fxctrader has pointed out as a possibility. The second chart (1hr) shows the move as a trend change and a move in the new direction. Both scenarios fit! Isn't Elliott great!

If it is just a correction to the trend, then this is a A-B and developing C to end the correction and resume the uptrend.

OR

If it is a trend change, then this is a 1-2 and a developing 3 in the new direction.

Correction?



Trend Change?

hefeiddd

Of all currency pairs at the moment AUDUSD offers the clearest count, I think.
While there is almost always a case to be m,ade for buuls and for brears, we must be realistic and look at the situation in terms of a bigger picture.
Bigger picture is such that gold is going down and, as we all know, market loks at AUD as a proxy for gold (irrelevant, whether it is justified, or not, I am just stating the fact).
The way I see it and I posted a chart earlier on Friday, I can see wave C correction done at around 0.9385, followed by a subminuette wave 1 down and now a subminuette correction wave 2 up which should terminate at around 0.9375
Further, wave A up was 86 pips and wave C up was also 86 pips.
After that, AUDUSD will start on its way south in earnest.
Mike
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Aud Jpy
I don't know, how many guys follow AUDJPY on this forum.
At the moment, it looks like an interesting, low risk proposition.
I will sell short hen the market opens tomorrow, risk only 20 pips, or so, but the potential is rather significant.
Mike
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Brad,
Thanks for pointing it out; I corrected the wave count in red, see attached.
I saw your wave count; I suppose that we will find out soon enough (later today), who is right.
As stated previously, when i am in doubt, i look at fundamental info. To me, aussie will be on the losing streak in the near future, simply because gold is going down. As a result, there is more pressure to the downside, then the upside.
Mike
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hefeiddd

EURUSD. Alternate View
Here is the alternate view to what may be developing in EURUSD.

According to this view, the current decline in Euro, which is still just a correction, may finish somewhere around 1,5230. The wave A of this correction down has fiished at 1,555, the brief wave B followed to 1,5693, and now the wave C is in progress.

After that the wave 5 (up) will follow.
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hefeiddd

Hey Mike and Brad,
Aud/Jpy is at an interesting juncture as most Jpy pairs are. Im sure bears and bulls will be battleling in the next couple of days. i will let them battle it out and jump on board once Im confident in thinking who the victor will be. I think we need to be looking at a big chart for clues of which point proves who is right. Here is the bear case. 100.49 is an absolute deciding factor. If this is a bear market, then that would be wave 2 and we are about to complete II of 3. If that point gets breeched, expect a new high. I would like to add that i am bearish Aussie and have a short position running for about a week now. Still, that is not the only decide factor. Will Yen continue its strength? Don't know yet. If your a bear AUD/JPY this is the time to short, no doubt about it.Attached Thumbnails





Hey Jimbo,
Thats interesting info about Cot reports. How do you incorprate it in your trading? I myself although do have a bearish bias, I don't see a clear count but since I love to trade the Pound, I am looking at the crosses for opportunity and do see one coming in GBP/CHF. I see a clear 3 waves down with price rapidly approaching the 38.2% retracement of wave 3 as well at the 21 week moving average. (wave 4s love to end near the 21s). The gives us a target of 2.12 before wave 4 is over and done with. Were only at 2.0842 so a little under 300 pips to go which we all know is nothing for the Pound.
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hefeiddd

I spent this weekend looking at stock and gold/silver charts, and kept the action of the dollar in mind as well. My analysis concluded the following:

1) The stock indices are nearing a top, and may have rolled over Friday and formed that top. This is important for the carry trade and the JPY pairs I'm very bearish on, i.e. bearish USD/JPY.

2) Gold and silver are oversold in the short term, and the dollar's strength translated into gold/silver strength as well on Friday which is unusual. This tells me we may see a bounce in the metals, but they won't come close their highs on the year. If the metals do bounce, it may be a clue that the dollar is about to fall.

3) I just can't count a bullish structure for the dollar, namely the USD/CHF and USD/JPY, so I must stick with the view that the dollar has to make a new low. I can count an ending diagonal and reversal in the EUR/USD, but on my next post I show a bullish count that would coincide with the USD/CHF and USD/JPY bearish counts.

4) It seems like a sure thing, a done deal, and common knowledge by everyone in the general public that the dollar has bottomed and it's now the easiest trade of the year to be bullish the dollar! Obviously, that type of thinking is usually wrong, and the general public is usually shocked when their easy gold mine of a trade turns into a huge catastrophic loss, even though CNBC told them the dollar had bottomed with certainty. Time to be a contrarian

Below is my 8hr chart of the USD/CHF. It shows an ABC correction from the low on the year coming to an end with a terminal thrust from a triangle. Also notice the bearish divergence (orange lines) on price and the stochastic for the proposed 5th wave, which is very typical for 5th waves.

Even if it doesn't mark a major top and reversal to a new low, the five wave rally that just unfolded calls for a correction soon that should bring prices lower. The structure and depth of the decline should give us a clue as to whether it's on its way to a new low. At this point, the rallly is getting quite stretched for a correction, so if it's going to make a new low, it needs to do it soon.

Also, just as the Bear Stearns news marked an extreme of bad news for the bearish market which marked a bottom, I think the recent "good news" of better than expected data (if you believe the numbers you're given) marks a top, especially the GDP and employment numbers last week. I'm looking for severely lower levels in the stock indices and the dollar soon, possibly this upcoming week.

American-T
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Although I don't like the look of this count, I had to make a count that supports USD/CHF and USD/JPY declines that the EUR/USD can handle. The support found last week at the wave A extreme (red line), could make it a possible flat correction. The support found at that level did raise a red flag with me when I saw it this weekend, and everyone is jumping on the bearish-EUR/USD-bandwagon so seeing as that I'm a contrarian to the masses, I do look for another view. The EUR/USD has been beaten so bad lately, with little significant bounces, I think at least a short term bullish bias is warranted. However I'm sticking to the overall bearish dollar view, which would have the EUR/USD rally big to a new high.

Although it's not pretty, it is posisble, and it does support my overall bearish dollar view.

American-T
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hefeiddd

AT,

Nice work. I unfortunately must agree with most of what you've outlined. The only thing I'm not sure about is severe new lows in the CHF. I am posting a one hour chart of the same that agrees with your count. In fact, it looks extremely clear. However, fundamentally (ugh) I have a hard time seeing the CHF much lower than it was at it's best against the USD. I have a long intimate knowledge of these two currencies. Because of that I just can't see the CHF staying below parity versus the USD. A drop from here, yes. Going to new lows (possibly), staying there for any prolonged period I don't believe so.

Metals down - YES.
Stox down -YES.
Dollar down - Possibly, depending on time frame we are discussing.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Great analysis ... both counts look valid ... both indicate that the next move is down in the short-term.

Here is the M30 count I'm following ... I will look to get short when the red counter-trend line is broken.Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

NZDUSD update from last week ...Attached Thumbnails






Here is a possible USDCHF count ... 1.0249 is a critical price level for this count to hold ... Time frame is H4.
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