一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

ALTERNATIVE count for GBPUSD
here is an alternative internal count for the GBPUSD.

what follows may be a 4 instead of a w34.

WAVE 4 normally goes back or retraces towards the previous lower degree wave 4 of a previous wave 3 of same degree.

NOTE that price may also be finding itself stuck in the range between the MONTHLY pivot @ 1.9863 and the weekly pivot @ 1.9846 right below the previous days HIGH of 1.9894.

I have also noticed that the 4 hour stochastics is nearly closing in on the 80 line. I suggest that you all join me in observing how stochastics performs during this potential wave 3.

AS an initial observation, the signal line usually stays above the 80 level for a long time even when price dips. IT is therefore my assumption that during this price surging period of wave 3 within a higher degree wave 3, the signal line rarely performs just like it does during wave 1, 5 and A. I would consider wave 3 within a higher degree wave C to exhibit a similar scenario.

EG
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hefeiddd

Eurjpy
Keeps yours eyes peeled on this one..... I think there is a good buy opportunity coming up when this correction ends
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hefeiddd

EURCAD... Primed For A Long !
EURCAD Is looking pretty ripe for a long position, if not now, then very soon ...
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hefeiddd

I have the same basic count on the hourlies. I went short earlier on the way down in wave 3 with a stop above the wave 1 low at .7890. Initial target is .7830 which is just above the April 29 low at .7829.I will extend that and use a trailing stop if the decline seems to have good momentum before I shut down for the night.Attached Images

hefeiddd

This trade is actually setting up pretty nicely. I just went short at 0.7872 with stops at wave three highs of 0.7917. My first target is at 0.7838, which is the low of wave three. I'll be looking for wave five to subdivide into five waves and when I see that I'll exit the second half.

The chart below shows that a triangle did indeed form in wave 'B' of wave four. This gives me a little more confidence in the trade because triangles only form as wave '4' or wave 'B', and this triangle is clearly not a wave four.

Wave 'A' of wave four was 30 points. Wave 'C' will equal wave 'A' when price gets up to 0.7888. That price area is also near the 61.8% retracement of the previous wave three. So there is obviously room for a small rally still, but it should be short lived.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Ask and you shall receive. Below are my daily counts. Also make sure you note the oscillator at the bottom (circled) is now trending down nicely, with lots of room to go.

American-TAttached Thumbnails  

hefeiddd

Well today was a great day for a US equity bear like myself as I saw the news time rallying as an opportunity to sell as this weeks long rally is extended, and the major indices had weakening momentum and were having trouble breaking through key trendlines, fibo levels, and basic resistance. The huge reversal today in the markets could very well mark the beginning of the next wave down to new lows in US equities.

With that in mind, it ties into risk aversion. With risk aversion comes USD/JPY selling. I think a lot of folks have been thinking the worst is over, just like from what we saw in the stock market, so they have been piling on the risky assets to include the carry trade. Now that the Fed meeting is out of the way, the dollar is free to fall, along with equities, and it should take down the USD/JPY with a fury.

I count five waves down from the top on the 30 min chart that suggests the decline may be underway (see first chart below). Regardless of the long term, this 5 wave move after the Fed announcement should bring the pair down significantly lower in at least one more five wave decline after a correction. A great risk/reward trade would be to wait for the 5th wave to complete and look to position yourself on the bounce, with a stop just above the high at 104.87. Or if you're longer term trading for huge moves like me, then just use the bounce to start establishing short positions, period.

The USD/CHF is not pretty at all but I can squeeze out a 5 wave drop with an ending 5th wave diagonal possibly underway now. Both dollar counts call for a short term rally, but they should prove corrective and not make a new high. It's possible I'm wrong in the short term, but if I position myself on the bounce with a great risk/reward trade, and use proper money management, then being right or wrong is not a concern............it's just a good trading decision. And in the long run, good trading decisions make money.

Regards,

American-T
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hefeiddd

cable
I stuggle to find a decent count on cable , and has fooled many over the past few weeks.

Just take a look at the weekly chart and see that the lower trend line has held on at least 5 ocassions. One would agrue that it has not bounced of this line in any meaningful way which may now lead to a probable break? Above 19925-30 negates this view.

Any one with a view?


REgards


Ray
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hefeiddd

what do u guys think of a sharp rally here in Euro?
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hefeiddd

Here's another look at the possible count on the USD/CHF on the 8hr chart. Notice the bearish divergence (orange trendline and red arrows) on the new high. This divergence, and weakening trend, is typical of 5th waves, and will hold as long as the USD/CHF can drift lower by later today. USD/JPY short is still in play.

American-T
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hefeiddd

usdchf
HiAll

Updated chart from the other day.

still feel this babys got some legs!!

stops can be moved up to protect profit.

Regard

Ray
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hefeiddd

cable
EG or enyone else trading cable. It's been frustrating couple of days trading the pair but I think it's getting closer to a clear picture
First I though wave (B) was a flat a-b-c correction but then the following down move suggested we might be in a complex correction.

So after all we are in wave (C) up ?! Maybe, as long as the price stays above 1.96 I inted to take longs for the expected up move.
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hefeiddd

EUR/GBP - Recap
Hey Guys,

The EUR/GBP trade worked out pretty well and closed out this morning with a gain of 34 points on the 1st half and 57 points on the 2nd half.

Gizmo, I hope you booked some profit on that one as well.
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hefeiddd

EUR/CAD - Time to go Long?
Hey Guys,

Here's my next trade setup. The five minute chart of EUR/CAD has completed five waves up. I'll be looking to get long on a pullback. Fib support and the previous fourth wave of one lessor degree comes into play around 1.5710 - 1.5750. That area should offer strong support. Targets will be the 100.0% and 161.8% Fib Extensions of wave one.
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hefeiddd

EUR/GBP - Wave 'C'
Hey Guys,

This is a trade I'm taking right now in EUR/GBP. The consolidation we've seen today has taken the form of a triangle which could be complete in five waves now. I'm counting this as wave 'B' of a correction. I went long at 0.7827 with targets just ahead of the 38.2% and 50.0% fib retracement levels (0.7850 & 0.7870). That could be a profit of +20 and +40 points while risking ~30 points with stops at 0.7801.
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-11 18:17 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Eur/cad #2
Hey Guys,

The short term chart in EUR/CAD could be nearing the end of a wave two correction. I'm looking for a base to form near current levels. If that happens, I'll enter long with targets just ahead of the 100% and 161.8% extensions of wave one. That would be roughly a 150 point profit on the first half and 250 points on the second half. Stops are initially at the lows of wave one which is at 1.5643.

If price continues too much lower though, the trade is a NO-GO.
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hefeiddd

Hi Gismo

Nice trade for you and Justy,well done, as you know i have been short this a while now. Below is the weekly chart, nice three candles, now if we can see close below 7820 ideally 7800 below the first trendline, then thing can exciting next week.

Regards

RayAttached Images

hefeiddd

Hi Ray... I have not entered the EURCAD yet.. I am waiting for price to hit the trend line and be dragged a little bit higher before entering...

Safety first Attached Images






Have patience with EURCHF Ray.. Wait for the up Trend line to break before getting short..
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hefeiddd

Audusd
Still following this pair. Here is my current count, does anyone see any problems with it or have an opinion on this pair?

I am expecting a correction for ii of III. Currently it looks like there may be an a-b-c for A of ii and we a working on a B of ii down.

All comments welcomed.

hefeiddd

audusd 5 min wave 3-4-5 complete for i of iii of III
Mike,

I think this is what you were seeing. I now belive we have completed wave i of iii down. Which originates from a bigger wave 1 down (from high) and a wave 2 up.