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一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 19:38 | 显示全部楼层
corrective interpretation hour chart
this is shorter time frame with still bullish anticipation to at least channel structure coming out now at 2.0080
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-11 14:36 | 显示全部楼层
Usd Jpy
Further to my posts regarding the same pair, it looks like USDJPY is at an interesting juncture at the moment.
My chart, below, shows that we just finished wave 2 up and should see a fairly large move down later tonight.
Myself, I just shorted this pair, risk less than 20 pips, at 104.85, just above the crest of the beginning of wave 1, which is my "line in the sand" in this case.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-11 14:37 | 显示全部楼层
Hi Market,

Once I see five waves down on the 60 minute chart, I'll be looking to get short in USD/CHF. Until that happens though price action is still bullish.Attached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-11 14:38 | 显示全部楼层
EUR/USD hourly.
This is the count I am following right now. I know wave 3 looks a bit extended but I like the internal count. Wave 4 might or might not be complete. Possible resistance areas:1.5708 (high of wave 4 of a lesser degree), 1.5723 (0.382 retracement of wave 3)
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-11 14:38 | 显示全部楼层
Open Trade Update

Critical price (CP) exceed - Stop Loss (SL) moved to break even. When/if .5668 exceed, will switch to a 20 pip trailing stop.








Audusd
Waiting Trade Update

New Wave 4 high means a recalc of trade line. Have a feeling we may get one more little push higher before a move down tonight. Maybe back to my original .9377 number. Either way, EP should not be hit until we have a valid wave 4 high. If .9377 is exceeded I will have to stand aside (cancel entry) and re-evaluate.

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-11 14:39 | 显示全部楼层
Hi Everyone,

Just got back. Been away since Thursday. Here is what I see on the 30 minute chart of the EUR/USD. Looks like wave 1 or A down is complete. An abc correction looks to be playing out. Whether it's just going to be a simple abc or a larger ABC is still to be determined. Btw, 60 minute chart looks the same. Only difference is the osc. are not as overbought yet.

EUR/CHF short taken last week at 1.6235 is profitable but no big move yet. S/L is now at breakeven. Hope everyone is doing well. :-)
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-11 14:40 | 显示全部楼层
eur jap
has anyone been watching this?
My count , new at this, but it tells me its right pegged at wave 1,

please thell me im right .... or wrong.

the market will do that for me. time to get some rest
Gordom



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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-11 14:41 | 显示全部楼层
USD/JPY hourly
5 wave up from 102.68 should be wave 5 of C. This correction seems to be near completion but I suspect that there is one more leg up. I believe wave 4 of 5 is currently in progress. The wave structure -- 3 wave down from 104.83, 3 wave up to hit 104.83 again -- seems like a flat correction to me. Hopefully wave 5 of 5 would end below 104.97. A break above it would disrupt the structure I have been following for a long time, but that doesn't change the long term bearish view.
Alternate count is that wave 5 of 5 ended in truncation at 104.83. I am just not comfortable with the fact that there are only 3 waves.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-11 14:42 | 显示全部楼层
cable
Good day fellow ellioticians,
here is my count for the cable...which i giss we are forming final leg (e) of E in triangle correction,as you notice C in a triangle correction was a tripple zigzag..

basically i am expecting a good rally up soon .
good trading .



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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-11 14:42 | 显示全部楼层
How about you consider a full 5 wave sequence down from the top with truncated fifth as a large A wave and then start looking for a triangle within B wave?Attached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-11 14:43 | 显示全部楼层
Eurusd
Trade from last night closed overnight.

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-11 14:44 | 显示全部楼层
setting up short term sell
trade set up for the very short term
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-11 14:45 | 显示全部楼层
short against high
short term sell against high looking for a break in neckline of possible --&s
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-11 14:45 | 显示全部楼层
Gbpjpy
Hi all

This is what i have on the weekly count, the corection could take us as high as the 50% fib line at 217

Brad you still in the trade buddy?

regards

Ray
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-11 16:51 | 显示全部楼层
From what I see in this uptrend, I can count 5 waves up so far. Not sure if it is done yet though since wave 1 was 198 pips, 3 was 223, and 5 is 14 pips short of wave 1 currently at 184 pips using the 8 AM candle high of 208.60.

If wave 5 is complete, then we could enter into wave a which could take us back to around 206.90 or the 38.2% fib line. Resistance comes in at the 209.00 high from the 11 AM candle on April 18.Attached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-11 16:52 | 显示全部楼层
Good to here from you American T.

Just a quick note, I believe the stock market is going down aswell, in addition to the Euro. The eur/ jap is just now going into wave 3 for a big drop that I really don't have a target for. I have followed your posts, and everyones to learn elliot wave and I really don't see how I could trade without EW.

The euro chf today was banging on wave one but could not beat through, but did violate by 4 pips.

Thanks all for the education that you can't get anywhere else.

Gordon



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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-11 16:53 | 显示全部楼层
Usdcad
Here is another low risk trade, guys.
See my chart, below.
USDCAD correction of last few hrs is almost complete.
I am going long at 1.009 area.
Mike
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-11 16:53 | 显示全部楼层
Gbp Usd
Here is the GBPUSD current count.
Is it correct? It could be, BUT WAVE 3 IS SHORTER THAN WAVE 1, as you can see on the chart.
In any case, it is a low risk situation, put your stop just below pinnacle of wave 1, that way your risk is only 20 pips, or less.
Mike
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Gbp Jpy
Here is my take on GBPJPY. Slightly different than Ray, I suppose, but still overall BEARISH.
Once we agree that we are going through a correction still, and there is very little doubt that we are, I will attempt to give a reasonable target for the end of the correction.
Mike
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-11 16:54 | 显示全部楼层
Gbp Jpy
At shorter time frame, GBPJPY is tracing a double zig-zag, or at least this is the way it looks now,
There are few ways to guesstimate the end of this correction.
One of the ways is giving us a target of 210.
Mike
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-11 16:55 | 显示全部楼层
USD/JPY - Going Up?
Hey Guys,

I know we're all looking for USD/JPY to roll over in the near future, but here's a possible bullish count in the works. Recent price action has unfolded in a few three wave moves that could be waves 'A' and 'B' of a flat correction. The decline today can be viewed as wave 'C' of the flat. If this count proves correct, we'll see a move below the wave 'A' low of 103.89 to complete the wave 'C' decline and of course then a rally to new highs.
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