一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

I tried posting these charts earlier this morning but there were technical difficulties in the forum. So these charts are a few hours old.

Bottom line: it appears the dollar has finally given way and is in its way to new lows. The USD/CHF and USD/JPY (see 45min charts below) offer the best opportunities to get short from what I can see.

American-T
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hefeiddd

Here is more confirmation that the EURJPY is probably at the beginning of a much larger decline. The GBPJPY has clearly traced out 5 down from 208.94 (this is a 60 min chart). The larger trend for the Yen crosses is again DOWN.
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hefeiddd

Eurjpy
Hello guys
EURJPY might be forming a head-and-shoulders. At the moment not confirmed yet. We are still missing second shoulder confirmation.
Alas, I thought that i would give you heads up
Mike
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hefeiddd

Hi Chakow,

Here's my count for GBP/JPY. I'm still bullish from last night. I don't think the risk:reward is worth taking a new position right now, but I'm still long from last night and holding until I get stopped out. I've got 1/2 my position sold and stops protecting about 100 points on the second 1/2. I do think that a top in JPY crosses is coming, but just not yet.

The GBP/JPY is sort of a by-product of USD/JPY and GBP/USD. It looks to me like both the USD/JPY and GBP/USD are headed higher for a little while longer. That obviously means stronger GBP and weaker JPY, making the long GBP/JPY a good bet.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Usd/jpy
I agree with the A-B-C-X-A-B-C count for USD/JPY. However, it's possible that the final wave 'C' isn't finished yet.

102.26 is the high of what I think is wave '1' of 'C.' If price moves below that line, I'll start looking for sell signals, but until it does I'm still bullish.
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hefeiddd

Eur Jpy
Wave C of the EURJPY shows a pretty good 5 wave pattern on the 1h chart, which i attach.
One caveat is only the length of the 5th wave, since it is a little shorter than wave 1, by about 50 pips.
So, what i am saying is that there is still a possibility that it might go little higher yet (to around 165.30). But, on the other hand the internal structure of wave 5 on 10 min chart (not shown) looks like 5 minuette waves, so we might be done with the intermittent top.
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hefeiddd

Usdcad
I'm thinking this count may be a possability for USDCAD .... Can't quite remember if we've seen it in here yet...
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hefeiddd

Stock market
Hello guys
I still expect another minutte wave up in the stock market to complete wave iii, followed by another wave iv (down) and v (up) to the level of around 2500 for NASDAQ. Other exchanges are similar (QQQQ, S&P).
Only after that we will see massive movement in USDJPY in my opinion.
Mike
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On this small squigly chart my waves might be hard to decipher. My count is good, I re-attach with more explanation. I simplified wave iii (one fat red line now).
My wave iv for Nasdaq bottoms at 2400; wave i top was at 2380 (round numbers)
But, it was a good point; no offence taken
To reinforce my message, I am of the opinion that we will see most of this week still with the market going up. Plus which wave A was 250 pips, wave C will be 250 pips at 2500.
Mike
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hefeiddd

Hi Marketwavez,

I "hope" I'm right too! Lol. But "hope" is an emotion, not a strategy so I'm going on a little more than that, lol. I know how you like charts so with this down time I modified my last one a bit to show a possible count for the current formation. The way it's labeled now would call for a correction to around the previous 4th wave, and another count has wave 1 complete and waves i and ii subdivided and almost complete to where the market shoots lower from current levels.

Either way, the dollar will fall. As I've said before, the best opportunities to capitalize on the dollar's fall are shorting the USD/CHF and USD/JPY. The EUR/USD's rally potential seems limited (ending diagonal) and the GBP/USD's wave structure is a mystery to me and so I don't trust it and can't define a clear risk level. 1.0282 in the USD/CHF should not be broken, or even tested. The first target for the pair is the prior low of 96.09. USD/JPY chart on the way, but very similar to USD/CHF.

American-TAttached Thumbnails





Here's the USD/JPY chart. It's almost a mirror image of the USD/CHF. The high should stay in tact, and 104.96 (the Rubicon) definitely has to stay in tact. The price should fall soon, and not far from current levels. The first target is the prior low of 95.73.

American-T
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hefeiddd

USDCHF Weekly Cycles
For AT -

The Double Stochastic has been doing a good job picking the weekly cycle highs in the USDCHF.

hefeiddd

EURGBP 15 min chart...
Looks like a wave five up yet in Eurgbp on the 15 min scale....
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hefeiddd

possibility ??
I think it is going up ?!?


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hefeiddd

Here's a 45min chart of the USD/CHF and it represents the dollar as a whole pretty well here. Of the two scenarios on my chart yesterday, the second one that called for a correction before declining appears valid here. I see a possible test of the prior fourth wave at 1.0132 before the dollar continues its downtrend on its way to a new low beneath 96.09.

American-T
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hefeiddd

Looks like we broke through the support at around 209.50-55 and are now retesting it as resistance for a second time in a few hours.

Went short at 209.00 with a stop at 209.60.
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hefeiddd

Gbp Jpy
Good Morning guys

Here is my chart for the GBPJPY.
We are forming wave C of 2 up now, which sholud take us to around 61.8% Fibonacci level, which is around 206.50-207
Since waves 2 are usually A-B-C type and since they are usually steep and deep and since GBPJPY seems to follow pretty well Elliott Wave Theory.

Once wave 2 is complete, we should see strong sell off.

Mike
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hefeiddd

Symmetry is a beautiful thing.

This is my chart for the day, same as marketwave and AT for usd/chf.

Kudos on marketwave for calling what I had labelled 1 as only iv.

As i'm not a true EWist? I like to place support/resistances and keep in mind general chart patterns.

The symmetry on this setup is looking very nice.

Wave 1 came in @ 280 pips
Wave 3 p.o is the extension @ 451 pips

451 pips happens to be the forced support from the upper resistance (green).

It is also the Head and Shoulders P.O if wave 2 ends right here and breaks through.

So good luck to all.

As always, adapt to what the market tells me.
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After looking at it I think your forcing the count with your wave 5! .

15min chart.

EDIT:

It is very hard to catch the corrective waves, because I was following this count..you can see how one might think my wave a was the complete wave 2 (it has a complete 3 internal waves). When my wave b was unfolding it could of very easily broken through the resistance line and fell through the floor....I'd say one would of been lucky to get 50 pips off the c move.

If you hold a short position as me, why risk a good position on the correction??

Second edit: This correction still has a good chance of hitting 1.0215, would be a good entry for a 451 pip run. Risk would be anything after 1.0275 for you new guys...

Not bad...
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hefeiddd

cable
Anyone agree that cable is close to a turning point ? I see one more wave down before an up move in wave (C).
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hefeiddd

depending on the count that pans out best.

Here's a couple of views --weekly (simple view) & 12hr detail
For the coming few weeks I see a bearish scenario to test well below 9600
--concern that the weekly shows a quasai hd and Sh like look
Rt. arm may resolve to the low 1.90s


feel free to critique my cycle placemtsAttached Images

hefeiddd

I relabled my wave count which has a large flat unfolding. If this count is right, then I can count 5 waves up from the low and it's in wave v of C. From there, prices should plummet. A good target for the end of wave v of C is the 61% fib. around 1.02, which is also the area of the prior wave ii extreme. If the dollar is going to do what I think it's going to do and fall hard to a new low, then it needs to trade down from these levels soon.

American-T
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Here's a 1hr chart of the USD/JPY showing a very similar wave count and headed into a wave 3 down on its way to a new low.

American-T
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hefeiddd

Now here's a 5min chart of the USD/JPY, which is a timeframe I usually ignore unless a clear picture is present. And here's a good example. I circled the very clear textbook 5 wave decline from earlier today. Judging by its position and size, it can't be finishing a correction, so it must be a resumption of trend. And in this case, the trend is down.

The dollar should start falling soon.

American-T
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