一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Eurusd
Hi guys ,


I have not posted for a while .... here is my recent weekly count. I fell very confident about this one. Comments please.




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hefeiddd

Aud/usd
First target is a complete retracement of the A-B-C correction ~ .9275

hefeiddd

Cadjpy
I was having a look at CADJPY.... On The monthly it looks like wave 3 down completed around 1994 and we have been in a wave 4 until last year.. The decline that started last year bounced off the 38.2 fib level of the wave 3 decline. (Exactly where wave 4 should end) ... Price is now boucing upward from another long term fib level... Having a look at the Daily chart of this pair, I'd say we have a leading diagonal completed and I expect a retrace into fib support for a good shorting oppotunity..
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hefeiddd

Eur/usd
Here is an hourly shot of EUR/USD. Looks like we have 4 waves complete. Look for a 5th to begin now against 1.5845. Target around 1.5650. This would also be 5 waves down from the top. Maybe an A or a new cycle?? Good risk/reward atleast.



Tom
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Hey Brad,

Here is a weekly chart of CADJPY. What do you think? It does look like a good shorting opportunity.


Tom
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hefeiddd

The count for CADJPY as I see it, is posted above... We can take on short positions on rallies or we wait for the trend line to break.. It just depends on your style.. If price can get back up towards the 50.0 and 61.8 fibonacci lines .. I'll be hopping on board with a short.. For now .. We just need to have patience and let it clear up a little...Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Well after getting "owned" by the dollar last week I had to re-configure my wave count. The only alternate I had that makes sense now is the one I posted below. The rally in the USD/CHF and USD/JPY is clearly corrective, and the longer term wave count show their lows complete only a wave 3. So the fact that they've only completed three waves down, and their rally off their lows is corrective, a new low must be acheived. The questions isn't if? It's when? And how much pain do I have to take until it does?

Well here's my best shot. Once again, the USD/CHF offers the clearest picture for the dollar as a whole (8hr chart below).

American-T
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hefeiddd

USDCAD Long opportunity
After doing a little homework on USDCAD... I think there is a great long opportunity right now... I will be entering a long trade in this pair at today's open with a fairly tight stop at .9975.. Risk is minimal for this trade .. (About 75 Pips) --- Target for the first half of the position will be the prior high at 1.0325, the second half will be trailed out.
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hefeiddd

Hi Tom,

I'm still overall bullish on the EUR/CHF due to the count I have on the daily, but I could also see the recent rally as just a correction due to how this pair is correlated with some others.

On the daily chart, I have the large five wave decline as wave 'C' of a flat. Wave 'B' of the flat counts best as a three move, thus the reason for calling the entire move a flat.

The four hour chart below shows what I think is going on. To start with, there are a few things that are jumping out to me. First is that the large decline seems to have ended with a truncated fifth wave. So I start the uptrend from the thick horizontal line which is at 1.5448. The first five waves I count are overlapping, so I count that as a diagonal. The second thing that jumps out is the decline from 1.5956. I count that as a flat because of the smaller five wave decline. That flat could be either wave '2' or wave 'B.' The third thing that I notice is the rally we saw last week went pretty much vertical, which could be indicative of a third wave. OR it could be just following along with USD/JPY and USD/CHF (the two pairs it's correlated with the most) and making a run higher before it reverses to the downside.

I do see at least one more high to somewhere near 1.6200 or so, so I'm planning on taking off half of my position there and seeing what happens from there. If price action is still bullish, then overall targets aren't until above old highs at 1.6828.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Here is my EURUSD count. I am short, but put my stop at 1.586

Mike
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hefeiddd

Eurjpy Large Triangle
EURJPY looks to me like it's in a large contracting triangle.. The moves since last year all look like large 3 wave movements..
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hefeiddd

LOL.

I like your count very much from a short term R/R trade and that it looks like it fits. If the rally continues past your wave 1, I guess there is little choice but to look at this decline as a correction in the ongoing up move. Though there may be one more leg down in a wave C before going higher if it is and ABC? That would be the initial guess.

I'm liking the ending diagonal triangle for the overall scenario. That might fit with continuing declining non-confirmations in the oscillators. One more marginal new high to satisfy the 1.60 crowd and then a longer term decline.Attached Images

hefeiddd

CHFJPY Bull Trend ;)
It took me a while to figure this one out because there's a huge ugly wave 4 in there.. But I think I've got it now ... I've been holding long this pair for a while ... I wasn't sure where I was going to be exiting... I've now set a target for 120.00 (The 61.8 retracement level of a multi year decline) where wave C should end...
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hefeiddd

EURJPY Bull Trend
Forget The Shorts For EURJPY... I think we've got ourselves a bull market to atleast 190.00

EURJPY is a mirror image of CHFJPY...

Think about this... The price of oil is going to continue upward.... Japan imports almost everything they use.. As the price of oil goes up it will cost them more and more.. Weakening their economy even further... I'm aware of the current technical picture in USDJPY and I know it's going to continue downward.. But you need to look at each pair individually.. You can not expect inter-correlation of markets to a "TEE" ..
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hefeiddd

am more than aware that almost everyone here has a good idea that EURJPY is headed for a major dive.. Including Jaime... Almost had me fooled there for a while too ... Well I have some bad news for you all... The major whips back and fourth in this pair since last year have not been impulsive and the trend remains upward... These whips back and fourth are 3 wave moves and part of a triangle most likely in a fourth wave position.. I am very confident in this assumption and I will be buying a large long position at the Wave 4 Bottom when we get there... Keep your eyes peeled people .. Don't Be fooled ! Trust your your own judgement Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Thanks ... here's an update ... I am currently short with stop behind 1.0075.

Could you post your USDCAD chart?Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Here is a look at what I'm seeing right now.

A completed textbook 5 wave advance kissing a long term trendline dating back to November of '07. At the very least we should be in for a decent sized correction that is worth trading.Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

We may have completed a wave B of an ABC correction that is unfolding on the hourly EUR/USD chart.

I considered that the wave A was the complete ABC correction. However, the nature of the rally since still looks corrective. That and very overbought 30 and 60 minute osc. lead me to think that this is only wave B and there may be another sharp wave C lower.
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hefeiddd

cable
Hi

This is the cable 4 hr count that i am working off at the moment. As wave 1 was not exceed i think may this count is good.

Any thought out there?

Regards

Ray
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hefeiddd

GBP/USD hourly
If wave 1 is a leading diagonal, I think this thing is part of a wave 2. The pound rally might not be over... yet.

hefeiddd

Hi Jimbo

I have attached a 30 min chart, shows five down and 3 waves up. Would you agree? Good place to get short if not already!!

Regards

RayAttached Images