一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-9 06:38

Usdjpy
heres a daily chart, something that might be happening?

Ray
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-9 06:39

Well going back, it looks like I was way off last night when I thought it might end around 205.00. I did hedge to cover just in case I was wrong since I was not able to watch over the european session.

I have redone my count and hopefully it comes up as a valid one now. I see us entering into the beginning of wave A which may take us down to the 204.00 - 205.00 area before resuming wave B up. Or I am still way of and will need to redo this again.

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Going up to a weekly chart, this uptrend looks to me as if it is a wave A correction of a larger downtrend. So the chance of it going up to meet the wave 4 down area would be good, and that is also the 38.2% fib area of what I have labelled as a 5 wave decline. Am I getting closer?

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-9 08:11

Was playing around in with the GBP/AUD daily and noticed that the price has tested the same area twice around 209.55. The declining trend line off the peak and this resistance line are about to meet so we should get some interesting action very soon.
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-9 08:12

FXSINGH .. You are mistaken... And I did post this count previously.. Have a look at the chart here... There is 5 waves down to complete the 5th wave of C..Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-9 08:14

I have two words - a busy day.......but quite interesting as well especially in yen pairs. My thoughts about usd/jpy are that we are very close to a reversal if not already happend. And from trading prospective a short with stop above 105 is/was a good risk/reward for a move down bellow 100 mark initially and then some.

Bellow are daily and 4H charts showing the end of wave IV and the critical level for that count to be valid.

Any thoughts ?
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-9 08:15

Nzdusd
Hello guys
Here is my look at NZDUSD.
It should be going down again in another 5 wave pattern. At the moment of writing the ABC correction appears to be done, but I do not see clear 5 waves in the C wave.
Anyway, I shorted it with a stop above yesterday's high.
Mike
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-9 08:16

eur/usd rally into the close With the little runup into the close I'm not sure that we can be certain that the euro bullishness is over. I was looking for a close below 5750 as an initial sign of a reversal. I'm starting to think that wave "4" or "D" just ended and we have one final leg up before it crashes. As always I'm open to comments and suggestions

GL and have a great weekend all!
Silver
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-9 08:17

Carry Trade index
Hi again, guys
Maybe some of you have seen this chart that I posted a couple of weeks ago.
I believe that it should convince you that we will see lots of strength in the yen (weakness in crosses) in the coming months.
Temporary corrections/ setbacks/ adjustments are just...temporary.
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-9 08:18

Trying to do a chart on this pair with a valid count by clearing everything and starting over on the daily. From what I come up with is this decline could be wave A with the 5th wave completed. Although I think we may get a new high from wave B, I think C will probably go back to at least the 50% fib line or maybe even the 61.8% line before a new uptrend comes into play. Comments?
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-9 08:19

Usdjpy
Taking a look at the candles on the monthly chart for USDJPY I have another idea I wanted to put up for everyone ... I posted previously showing the decline from last year could be a leading diagonal.. But the structure doesnot appear to be a leading diagonal... So I have put together a new idea for the pair...

Chart Below

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Here is a look at USDJPY a little closer up on the DAILY chart.....
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-9 08:20

I am short the pair. My chart please see below.
since there are more than one way to draw this chart and to count the waves, I present the one that makes sense to me. But, there might be alternate counts.Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-9 08:21

Ray, I think we reached a significant top medium term. There are few reasons lead me to believe that.

First - the lenght of wave C or 3 as lebeled on my chart is only 15pips shy of 0.8112 where it would be equal to wave A or 1 and considering the time frame we are working with I think it's safe to assume they are equal.
Second - wave 5 (bold) is 62% of the distance between the bottom point and the end of wave 3 which I believe is one of the EW guidelines ( if wave 3 is extended then wave 5 is 38% or 62% of wave 0 - wave 3 ).
Third - we have complete five wave stucture on daily chart.

Now from trading prospective I'd like so see five waves down followed by three up to get short if not already. I know you are so there would be a good place to add with a stop above the high.

Hope that helps.

RegardsAttached Images

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-9 08:22

By the way here is the daily count for the same pair.
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billdeng · 发表于 2008-5-9 08:24

现在每天第一件事就是看老师的精彩文章,谢谢提供

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-9 08:24

Yes there are alternate counts, and my alternates are probably due to inexperience as I can't quite seem to get a handle on this one. I have two different ways of counting the 1 hour chart for todays decline. I am not sure which one is correct and have one count in bold letters and the other in regular. Either way it is still down but whether it is correction or wave 5 I am not sure. Comments please.Attached Images

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-9 08:25

Good Morning to you all:

I like the count in plain roman numerals better than bold.
I suppose, the question needs to be asked "what can go wrong", is there any other count that will INVALIDATE our bearish scenario and will push the pair higher? Personally, I do not see it. Superficially, it looks like a relatively low risk trade, if there is such an animal. (But, I have hundreds of examples where a low risk trade turned out to be a total disaster)

On a more cheerful note, I attach a chart showing that we BROKE through two support line, or bottom of trading channel, which is additional support to our bearish outlook.

Happy Saturday to you guys
MikeAttached Thumbnails

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-9 08:26

Eurchf
Ok.. I deleted my EURCHF charts because they were a little unclear... Here they are again.. labeled in a bit more detail... Hope it helps.. Price looks like it's in a long term wave 4 triangle.. Just best to leave this pair alone...

There's another chart here that shows it could be tracing out an expanding triangle but I don't favour that count..
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-9 08:28

Eur Usd
Hello guys
Here is my EURUSD chart.
It looks like the price is touching now at the bottom of the base channel, which is frequently a turning point.
I will go short here and put my stop at the bottom of wave 1 (green line on the chart)
Mike
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-9 08:29

Here is an excerpt from Elliott:
"""B" waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks, are often "unconfirmed" in Dow Theory by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by wave C. """

Is this the same phenomenon that we are witnessing these days in business media, business TV, internet and other outlets telling everyone to buy, buy buy?
I took a look at Dow and Nasdaq (S&P, QQQQ is the same).
I would argue that we will see few more days of this euphoria before we start the next bear leg in the stock market. Take a look, my chart shows that Nasdaq should go to around 2500, which is another 80-100 points. Also, I do not see 5 waves up in the C wave yet.

Why I am saying that? It might imply that USD will show some strength for few days yet, especially USDJPY, as this pair is probably the closest reflection of the stock market behaviour.
Mike
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Eur Chf
Here is my opinion re. EURCHF
Within next couple weeks we should see it retrace to around 50%, or former wave 4 of lesser degree, followed by another action to the upside equal in length to just completed 5 waves, which was 800 pips, or longer.
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hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-5-9 08:30

hi Duyman
Was trying to figure out this fine chart of yours ,

What currency pair is this ?............. and what time frame bars is this ?

- Can you write what it is on the chart ? .......
It sure helps ..............thanx

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一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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