一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Hi Ray... Didn't hop on board EURCAD yet... It got right back up towards it's previous highs real quick so I thought there was a chance it may continue on it's marry way.. But it has since turned back downward before the prior high... Looks like I'm still waiting on my original assumption with this pair... Retrace into fib zone for a buy.... I see two possabilities....

Both on the charts...Attached Images

hefeiddd

From my understanding on the EUR/USD..

Most people hold on this forum that the current count is in pink???

This chart I believe illustrates where the price action power is coming from. Also, to hit 1.7200 in a month and a half, would be some massive monthly moves...

We are only 7 months into a break through from a 10+ year resistance line!
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hefeiddd

Eur/gbp
Hey Guys,

Here's a possibility for EUR/GBP. Under this count the most vertical part of the rally is labled as a third of third wave. Therefore, five waves up could be near completion with an extended third wave.
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Eur/gbp - #2
Here's the 60 minute chart showing the breakdown of wave five from my last post.
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hefeiddd

I'd rather put up my long term view. I have two counts - bullish and bearish :

• According to my data I can count five waves advance followed by three wave decline from the top in 1995 which might be wave (2) correction. We are now in wave (3) which will bring the pair well beyond parity. At that that point BoE would have no choise but to adopt the euro in case they want to prevent the GBP from further crush and basiclly save its currency.

• The same decline from the top in 1995 is a part of bigger wave (A) correction. Then we have another three waves so far which could well be part of wave (B).
  
  Now the tricky part is finding where the top of wave (B). That's where I use the help of Fib Extentions. Wave C of (B) would be equal to wave A at 0.8112.

Short term I agree with Justy we are near completion of wave 5 of 5 on daily and the pair is due for correction but I'm keeping an eye for 0.8112 level.


RegardsAttached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Usd Chf
Here is another look at USDCHF.
Development is painfully slow, which is not very good news for the bearish case.
Nevertheless, here is my take of the action for the last day.
Mike
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hefeiddd

Gbpjpy
Possability here for GBPJPY
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GBPJPY 3rd Wave Anyone ??
GBPJPY looks like it's entering a 3rd wave on the 4 hour chart
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hefeiddd

From looking at the decline on the daily chart... It is clear the decline from last year has not been impulsive... Thus I expect another wave up... I think we may be in a large triangle... Maybe one more rally back up to the 250.00 area in a large wave E before a decline to a new multi year low...Attached Thumbnails  








Eurgbp Monthly
Ray.. Jimbo.... Here ya go ... EURGBP... Looks like we're coming into a resistance area at the prior high ... Maybe we get our 4th wave correction soon ... I believe there is enough thrust in this pair to send it past the prior high though .. niether would surprise me.. "B" waves can go much past the prior high ... I see no relief in sight for this rally as of yet
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hefeiddd

The USD/CHF is offering the clearest count for the dollar as a whole. So if this count is right, 1.0110 should remain in tact, and a wave 3 should be underway soon. I'm using this pair to dictate the overall dollar picture for other pairs. I closed my short USD/JPY position right after it broke 102.00 and violated my bearish triangle count. But I'm still short the USD/CHF and long the EUR/USD. I have more confidence in the specific USD/CHF count and feel that it ultimately has the best opportunity as long as the triangle remains in tact.

American-T
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Now here's a 1hr chart that shows the pair might be rolling over. Observe the price action (red arrow) and the stochastics (circled). Talk about a great risk/reward against that recent high. Or perhaps stretch it out to 1.0120. Remember, I'm using this to represent the dollar as a whole.

American-T
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hefeiddd

Question
Hello ladies and gents,

I hope you don't mind me asking a newbie EW question. If the final leg of the euro advance is starting shouldn't the internal structure of the wave be impulsive? What confuses me is what i've circled in red... they look like zigzags not impulsive waves... although the overall wave does seem to develop into something that looks a little more impulsive.

Would anyone mind enlightening me?

Thanks,

Silver
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hefeiddd

GBP/JPY Going Down?
Hey Guys,

I think GBP/JPY is heading much lower from current levels. The long term chart is showing the same downward impulsive patterns as USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. However, where USD/JPY has a triangle in the fourth wave and EUR/JPY sports an expanded flat in the fourth wave, GBP/JPY has a simple zig-zag. The internal structure of that zig-zag breaks down into a 5-3-5. The shorter term (weekly/daily) is showing a clear impulse wave. The weekly chart below shows that price is currently correcting in a wave four before one more leg lower. Those five waves would then complete wave one of wave five on the monthly charts.

Back to the weekly chart... Wave one was 3183 points long. Wave three extended just beyond the 161.8% fibo extension of wave one. As per EW Theory, when wave three is extended waves one and five are often related by equality. So, we should be looking for another 3200 point move to the downside once wave four resolves itself.

Looking to the future, the 38.2% retracement of wave three (weekly chart) is at 211.15. Assuming that wave four retraces to somewhere near that level, we can take 211.15 and subtract 3183 points to get a wave five target price of 179.32. A rising trendline drawn off of the lows of the fourth wave on the monthly chart just so happens to intersect the 179.32 area right where you would expect wave five to end. How about that... This idea is shown on the third chart below.
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hefeiddd

Hey Justy.... How is it that you have a 3 wave move labeled as a large wave 1 ??? It would need to be 5 waves.... This decline from last year is part of a correction... I Think The waves on the Daily chart are clear as a bell... I guess we will know soon enough if the trend line breaks to the upside Attached Thumbnails






Justy... About a month ago price formed a hammer at the 161.8 resistance level on the weekly chart of USDCHF.... This is a good sign of a reversal.. Although the longer term count is not defined enough to count perfectly... I don't think it wise to be selling in this area now... I think there is a good chance USDCHF may be at a multi year bottom.. .. Just my thoughts... Too each their own...
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gbpchf
HI All ,

I follow the GBPCHF with H1 count, it seems we enter (i) of 3,
but I am not sure if we finish the zigzag of wave 2, anybody hollow this pair please ?

Thanks a lot
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hefeiddd

It's About Time!
USD/CHF has a five wave decline on the 5 minute charts. Time to go short with stops at 1.0006. Hopefully we can get a continuation of the USD/CHF downtrend throughout the European session.
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wave 4 is over-lapping wave1 in your chart ............
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hefeiddd

WhatCount,

Here is a weekly GBPUSD count ... if this count is correct, the pair should fall to at least trendline support or one of the fib levels below the trendline to complete (C) before the next move above 203/4.

What do you think??



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hefeiddd

The leading diagonal on the 4-hour timeframe corresponds with wave 1 of the (B) wave on the chart in post #6043. I think wave 2 is currently underway ... again, if the count is correct, the short move up should complete in 3 waves into the 1.9903/2.0135 price area ... the trendline resistance and the 61.8 fib level coincide within this price range.

Care to comment??Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

So drilling down to the 30-minute timeframe, this is what's happening with GBPUSD. If the count is correct, wave iii of 2 on the chart in post #6044 is currently underway.

Care to comment??Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Mike,

Here is my count ... wave 2 possibly completed… note the possible Head & Shoulder pattern (outlined in purple) signaling the imminent breakout of the triangle on the larger timeframes.

Care to comment??Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

M5 USDCHF count.Attached Thumbnails  

hefeiddd

Wave 2 possibly complete ... but need to complete (i), (ii), (iii) to confirm.Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

This is what i am following.

RayAttached Images

hefeiddd

Gbpjpy
Well Justy... The Down Trend Line Broke In GBPJPY this morning.... Looks like we're going back up.... Clearly the decline since last summer has not be impulsive... It's been a large 3 wave move which I believe has terminated, and near the 61.8 area of the prior wave of the triangle (Each wave in the triangle usually equals about 61.8 of the prior wave, they are corrections of each other)... That rally is labeled as wave "D" of the long term triangle.. Now we expect wave "E" back up to the 250.00 area to complete the long term triangle

Had this decline from last summer taken on a different shape... (An impulsive one) I would agree with you to the down side... But I can't .. The entire decline was a correction... And clearly visible...

MACD shows very nice divergence on the Daily chart....
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