一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

My favored count in the EURUSD is that a B wave is complete at 1.5916 and that the EURUSD is on its way lower in a C wave (below 1.5342). But I'll propose an alternate. The alternate is a diagonal. What I do not like about it though is that wave iii is nearly 150 pips short than wave i (553 to 406). Therefore, wave iv could not exceed 1.6076. A drop below 1.5670 would do damage to this count and support the C wave down count.
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hefeiddd

Not sure where my chart went in the previous post since it was in the preview, but here it is now.Attached Images

hefeiddd

GBPAUD hourly chart
Hey Gizmo .. I hope you didn't get stopped out of your short with GBPAUD... Here's what I think is going on right now ...
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hefeiddd

GBPUSD



The 4H count shows a possible b-wave running triangle has finished in a complex wave-C of a higher degree.



The 1H count shows that we may be starting wave-3 down from of the end triangle.
We've got a new low past the wave-i, but it's currently being retraced. The new low might be wave-.b or an irregular flat, wave-2. If this is true, price should not retrace wave-b (because wave-b has fallen 138.2%) and wave-c would be equal to wave-c.

I have a pending sell order. I might take another sell order with a stop at the nearest 1H top.






Looks to be a running triangle in the wave-4 position

hefeiddd

Cad
Usd/Cad looks good for a long trade. If the count is correct then we are in wave C up.

What do you think ?
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hefeiddd

cable
Hi All

i posted this yesterday , here is a updated chart below.

I know Jamie said it didnt look right but seems to be palying out. yesterdays entry was around 19880 stops 1.9912.

trendline has come down so stops can be moved down. Target area is below the 19650, i am aiming for 19580.

any thoughts anyone?

regards

Ray
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hefeiddd

Here is a chart of the EUR/USD as of now. This is how I am seeing the short term count on the 30 minute chart. The lower trend line is taken off the 0403 1.55 low. The upper is the triple top at 1.59.

I would have to agree with Jamie that until we have a breakout of the range on either side we are just stuck in a trading range for now. No clear one way direction.

We either have to get going to the upside soon or the correction may become more pronounced. Longs will be getting tired of not seeing the 1.59 breakout.

On the other hand shorts may be feeling the pressure of the correction taking so long in coming.

This BREAKOUT to the upside is a very well publicized event. That's what makes me nervous. It's the inevitability of it. Does the market always accommodate the majority?
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hefeiddd

EUR chart just test and eur 60 min chart seems we may not rule out the possibility that we are in wave 2 decline...


thanks market and justy... hope this test will successfully.
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Hi Updated chart below.

Step aside, or move stops to 19710.

Jamie looks like the count was right!!

Regards

Ray
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hefeiddd

Jimbo,

Here are the counts I am following: Two alternate counts. Count 1 implies wave 2 of (3) is underway. Count 2 matches your count, it implies wave C is underway. 1.0135 is a key support. A break of this level should invalidate Count 1, and should invalidate Count 2 if the support holds.

I was initially following Count 1, so I went long a small position ... I am currently long with stop below 1.035. I recently observed the alternate count (Count 2) ... had I observed the alternate count earlier, I would have waited for the test of 1.0135 to determine my entry.

The bottom line is we are both bullish on this pair.Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Hi Market

I did post yesterday saying that it was good short at 1.9880, with a stop of 1.9912 bottom of wave one.

it was a good R/R trade. with over 250pips in the bag. I am on the side lines now as not sure what it will do, it has met the minimum expectations for a wave 5 and there is the diagonal senario as well. posted chart below.

what do you feel from here?Attached Images

hefeiddd

Here's a 30 minute look at what I'm seeing.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Let's not forget the bigger picture....I am of the camp that a large 3rd wave is complete at 1.5904 and that an expanded flat is underway (1.5915 was the B wave top). Wave C should then come under 1.5342Attached Images

hefeiddd

Usd/chf
Hey Guys,

Here's what I see with USD/CHF. The first chart below shows the Swiss Franc Index. There is a triangle there, but it's not yet complete. A small decline in wave 'E' will complete the triangle and lead to a breakout. The second chart is the 60 minute chart of USD/CHF. I think wave 'E' is still in the making. So far, waves 'A' and 'B' are complete, with wave 'B' being a double zig-zag. So right now I'm seeing price in wave 'C' of wave 'E.'

Wave 'A' will equal wave 'C' when price is at 1.0128. That price area is right at the upper boundary line of the triangle.

We should see price continue higher for the next day or two, then we'll see the move lower.
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hefeiddd

Nice USD/CHF chart. I have the exact same count as you do on the hourly USD/CHF. I'm sure this is also what AT is seeing and that is helping him call the EUR move up. It certainly is a clear triangle forming. No doubt about that.Attached Images

hefeiddd

since the 2005 low...tops in the eurusd have exhibited a cycle that alternates between roughly 20 and 30. (20/28/22/31/21)

tops have occurred (week ending date) on:

1/27/06
6/9/06
12/8/06
4/27/07
11/23/07

the cycle:

1/27/06 to 6/9/06 = 20 weeks
6/9/06 to 12/8/06 = 28 weeks
12/8/06 to 4/27/06 = 22 weeks
4/27/07 to 11/23/07 = 31 weeks

21 weeks from the last top, which was on 11/23/07, is 4/11/08 (or last week). if this cycle holds, then a top is either place at last week's high or a top will form this week
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hefeiddd

EUR/USD 30 Minute Chart Update:

Well, we have arrived at the .618 ret of the rally from the post G7 sell off at 1.5675 to 1.5885. Either that holds and we go back up, OR we can test the.786 ret at 1.5715 which is also the up trend line from the "triangle" that was being watched. If that falls by the wayside the only thing holding this up is the G7 low at 1.5675. If that goes we should be pretty clear on the downside.

Right now we have oversold 30 min & 60 min osc. Maybe have to work that off for a while. I guess the rally from here (if there is one) will tell just how much comitment there is on either side of the tug of war.
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hefeiddd

Here is a daily chart..looks like a 3rd of a 3rd is finally underway.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Ok, so the first objective for the AUDNZD is above 1.2091. The next objective is above 1.2448. But I think there is a good chance that the AUDNZD has entered a MAJOR bull leg. The top in 1984 at 1.7637 was probably the end of a 3rd wave. A triangle has unfolded since and 4th waves are often triangles (and it lasted a fibonacci 21 years (November 1984 to December 2005). A series of 1st and 2nd waves has unfolded since the 2005 low and the next few months should see the AUDNZD enter its strongest rally since the late 70s/early 80s. So to answer where the target is? Ultimately, it is much much higher..it all depends on your time horizon.Attached Images





Jaime ... audnzd
Jaime... Do you think this count could be a possability here too ??
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hefeiddd

cad/jpy - update
Looks like the wave 4 is now over.
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hefeiddd

Gbp/chf
Hey Guys,

Here's another good trade setting up. GBP/CHF will be offering a setup in the next day or so with a great risk/reward ratio.

The first chart below shows a daily chart with a completed five wave bear sequence. The second chart shows the recent price action on a 60 minute chart. The rally that took place today was in five waves. The previous price action was a five wave rally followed by a three wave decline. So obviously there is some bullish potential left in the near term.

I'm looking to get long on a retracement down to the 1.9700 area. Risk can be kept tight at 1.9600. I'm looking for an initial target of 2.0329 (23 March high). That makes for a risk of ~100 points and an initial objective of ~600 points.
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Usd/chf
Hey Guys,

USD/CHF is moving higher quite nicely. It looks like an extended wave three is over now with the spike high of 1.0109. A drop/consolidation in wave four and one final high will complete a five wave rally that is wave 'C' of wave 'E' of a larger triangle. I'm looking for a top somewhere near 1.0128.
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